Chapter 13: Probability and Data Analysis

13.1

Find Probabilities and Odds

Probability: A measure of likelihood, or _______________ that an event will occur. This can
be expressed as a _________________ , __________________, or ________________ .

Percent:
Fraction:

Theoretical Probability: What we would ___________ to occur based on the data.

P (A) =
The probability of event A can be written as P(A)
1. If I were to pick a name out of a hat with each of your names in it, what is the probability
that I will chose a girl?
2. A box full of EXPO markers is filled with 9 green, 12 blue, 7 red, and 13 black. If you were
to choose a marker at random, find the given probability.
a. What is the probability that you pick a blue marker?

b. What is the probability that you pick a red or a black marker?

c. What is the probability that you do NOT pick a green marker?

Experimental Probability: Based on repeated ____________ of an _______________

where successes are _______________. This __________ is used to calculate the
____________ probability,

Experimental Probability =
1. You rolled a colored spinner 50 times. Here is the number of times that you landed on the
given colors. Use the table to find the experimental probability of the following:
blue
21
a. P(red) =

green
9

red
14

orange
6

b. P(blue) =

c. P(green) =

d. P(orange) =

BIG QUESTION: What is the DIFFERENCE between THEORETICAL and

EXPERIMENTAL Probability?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________

Odds in favor =

Odds Against =

Write in your own words the difference between PROBABILITY and ODDS?

_____________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________
2. A spinner was spun 20 times with the given results. Find the indicated odds.
blue
7

green
4

red
6

a. What are the odds of landing on a red?

b. What are the odds against landing on a green?

c. What are the odds of landing on a blue or an orange?

orange
3

d. What is the probability of landing on a red or orange?

e. What is the probability that you will not land on a green?

13.4 Find Probabilities of Compound Events

Survey: Do you play an instrument, play on a sports team, do both, or do neither?

This is an example of an ________________________. There are students for

whom both conditions are met.
An __________________ probability has no events in common. There would not
be any overlapping events in the middle. Examples: ______________________.
Compound Event: Combined two or more events, using the words ___________ or_________.
Mutually Exclusive Events: (OR)
Overlapping Events: (OR)

1. Use the spinner to the right to answer the following questions.

a. Find the probability that you land on a 12 or a multiple of 3.

P(12 or multiple of 3) =

b. Find the probability that you land on a even number or 21.

P(even or 21) =
2. You roll a number cube. Find the probability of the given events.
a. Find the probability of rolling a 3 or an even number.
P(3 or even) =

b. Find the probability of rolling an odd number or a 5.

P(odd or 5) =

c. Find the probability of rolling a prime or an even number.

P(prime or even) =

Independent Events: (AND)

Dependent Events: (AND)

1. You have a bag with 3 red, 3 green and 2 blue marbles. You pick two marbles; find the
probability of choosing a blue marble and a red marble.

With Replacement: P(blue and red) =

Without Replacement: P(blue and red) =

Without Replacement: P(red and red) =

2. A box contains 4 blue markers, 8 yellow markers, and 5 green markers. You chose one at
random, do not replace it, and then choose a second marker at random. Find the following:
a. P(green and green) =

b. P(blue and yellow) =

c. P(yellow and yellow) =

3. A bag contains 4 red, 5 green, and 2 blue marbles. You randomly draw two marbles, one at a
time. Find the probability that both are red if:
a. you replace the first marble

13.2

b. you do not replace the first marble

Find Probabilities Using Permutations

Permutation:

1. How many permutations are there of the letters A, B, and C?

2. How many ways can you arrange the letters in MOUSE? ____ ____ ____ ____ ____

3. How many ways can you arrange three of the letters in ORANGE? ____ ____ ____

4. Nebraska license plate is made up of 3 letters followed by 3 digits.

a. How many different license plates are possible if letters and digits can be repeated?

b. How many different license plates are possible if letters and digits cant be repeated?

5. The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are used to generate four-digit customer codes. How many
different codes are possible if digits
a. can be repeated?

b. cannot be repeated?

6. Jacob, Kelley, Bryan, Jessica, and MaryAnn are running for class offices. In how many ways
can they be elected president, vice president and treasurer?

President

Vice-president

Treasurer?

Factorial:
Example: 4! is read as 4 factorial and means 4321 = 24
Permutation Formulas: (REMEMBER: Order IS important)
The number of permutations of n objects:

The number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time, where r < n:

Evaluate.
1.

8!

2. 4!

3. 6!

5.

6.

Evaluate.
4.

8 3

10 6

7 2

7. The number of permutations of 5 objects

8. The number of permutations of 5 objects taken 3 at a time

9. The number of permutations of 10 objects taken 7 at a time

13.3

Find Probabilities Using Combinations

Combination: (order IS NOT important)

The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time, where r < n

Count the combinations of two letters from the list A, B, C, D. What do you notice?

1. 9C6

AB

AC

AD

BA

BC

BD

CA

CB

CD

DA

DB

DC

2.

12

C4

3.

C5

4.

C6

5. Find the number of combinations of 5 objects taken 2 at a time

6. Find the number of combinations of 6 objects taken 3 at a time.

7. You order a pizza at a restaurant. You can choose 3 toppings from a list of 12. How many
combinations of toppings are possible?

Decide whether the problem requires combinations or permutations to find the answer.
Then solve the problem.
1. Your school newspaper has an editor-in-chief and an assistant editor-in-chief. The staff of
the newspaper has 12 students. In how many ways can students be chosen for these two
positions?

2. Five representatives from a senior class of 280 students are chosen for the student council.
In how many ways can students be chosen to represent the senior class on the student
council?

3. A relay race has a team of four runners who run different parts of the race. There are 20
students on your track squad. In how many ways can the coach select students to compete on
the relay team?

4. A teacher is holding tryouts for the school play. There are 15 students trying out for 7 parts
in the play. Each student can play each part. In how many ways can the teacher select the
students?

5. In how many ways can 5 people sit in a car that holds 5 passengers?