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Current
Price
Market Cap.
TEV/
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
P / FCF
$25.29
$1.4 bil.
8.8x
19.4%
9.3x
$74.32
$28.8 bil.
13x
19.2%
24.6x
124.00
$101.7 bil.
14.9x
20.6%
25x
Avon Products
(AVP)
$17.58
$7.6 bil.
8.7x
11%
19x
Elizabeth Arden
(RDEN)
$38.44
$1.1 bil.
9x
12%
14x
$16.19
$6.2 bil.
9.5x
18.1%
14.5x
Company
Revlon Inc. (REV)
(prices as of 11/25/13. EBITDA & FCF based on calendar year 2014 estimates.)
Why the stock recently dropped:
On October 24th, Revlon, Inc. announced results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2013
which were a bit weaker than the estimates of the only brokerage firm (BMO Capital Markets) that
follows the stock. But that was primarily due to adverse foreign currency effects, without which
Revlon's overall Q3 sales would have been +1.1% Revlons domestic sales in Q3 (-3.2%) were in-line
with Elizabeth Arden (-3%) but held up better than Coty's (-10%) and Avon's (-19%) in a recent
industry-wide slowdown cited by all of the U.S. mass-market cosmetics players in their Q3
conference calls.
Ron Perelman effect:
78% of Revlons shares are owned by Ron Perelman, the billionaire investor who has controlled the
company since 1985 and who has occasionally tried to take advantage of minority shareholders in
companies he has controlled over the years. In April 2009, when the stock was trading at $3.00,
Perelman attempted to force a mandatory exchange of common shares for a preferred stock to be
issued with a $3.74 face value and 12.5% yield. Revlon couldnt get a fairness opinion and
shareholder Vern Mercier sued to stop the deal. Revlon settled by the making offer voluntary. The
preferred stock value was then raised to $5.21 per share and increased yield to 12.75%. Nearly half of
the minority shareholders accepted that revised exchange offer. Shortly after those who accepted the
deal got their preferred stock in October 2009, the common stock soars from $5.50 to nearly $20 on
strong earnings report. Lawsuits by those who accepted that deal were then settled in 2012.
It's unlikely that Perelman would try once again to buy-out minority investors at a low price, given
the past litigation settlements and SEC fines incurred, and the possibility of having to appear in front
of the same judge in Delaware. Yet, the fear associated with being a minority investor in a Perelmancontrolled entity is likely a significant factor in the current valuation discount on REV shares. That
fear looks overdone to us, especially since Perelman has historically been a seller of assets in M&A
environments such as now (a seller's market); witness his IPO of Revlon in 1996 on the heels of
Maybelline's takeover (at 14.6x EBITDA) by L'Oreal, and his sale of TV station owner New World
Communications Group for 17x EBITDA to News Corp in 1997.
Potential acquirers:
If Perelman, nearing 71 years old, decides to sell, a bidding war could easily erupt between likely
buyers such as Unilever, Procter & Gamble, and possibly Reckitt Benckiser (which tried and failed to
buy Maybelline in 1995/1996), among others. Revlon would nicely fill gaps in those companies
product offerings.
Conclusion:
REV currently trades at a significant discount to its intrinsic value. The companys highly accretive
acquisition of The Colomer Group, and the appointment of a new CEO, bodes well for the companys
growth prospects, and further enhances its potential value.
Risks:
Most of Revlon's debt is floating rate, so they are vulnerable to a sustained rise in interest rates.
Competition is their industry remains fierce. Perelman remains Perelman.
ChristopherP.Mittleman
ManagingPartner
MittlemanBrothersLLC
188BirchHillRoad
LocustValley,NY11560
phone:5166866200
mobile:9179511782
fax:5166866207
www.mittlemanbrothers.com
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not an offer to buy or sell any
securities. Partners and employees of Mittleman Brothers, LLC own shares in Revlon, Inc. (REV).