Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
August 2009
Table of Contents
Introduction: How Big and Influential Is the Activity We Call Business Travel?..................................................................... 2
Approach, Methodology, Data Sources, and Definitions ........................................................................................................ 4
Global Business Travel Analysis............................................................................................................................................. 7
Global Summary.................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Business Travel's Contribution to Industries Around the Globe........................................................................................ 12
Global Business Travel Outlook ........................................................................................................................................ 15
World Economic Outlook Summary ............................................................................................................................. 15
The Outlook for the Top 20 Global Travel Markets ...................................................................................................... 28
U.S Business Travel Market.................................................................................................................................................. 89
U.S. Business Travel Forecast.............................................................................................................................................. 96
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook............................................................................................................................................ 96
Business Travel Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 98
Business Travel under alternative scenarios................................................................................................................... 105
Business Travel with oil prices of $100 per barrel........................................................................................................... 107
Business Travel Survey ...................................................................................................................................................... 109
The Economic Impact of U.S. Business Travel................................................................................................................... 116
The Top Line: Total U.S. Business Travel Industry Spending ....................................................................................... 117
Economic Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry .................................................................................................. 118
Value added Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry .............................................................................................. 119
Income Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry ...................................................................................................... 120
Employment Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry .............................................................................................. 121
Tax Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry ............................................................................................................ 123
U.S. Business Traveler Profile ............................................................................................................................................ 124
Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................... 124
The Top Line: Person-Stayes and Spending ................................................................................................................. 125
Business Travel by Mode of Transportation.................................................................................................................... 127
Business Travel Spending Profile ................................................................................................................................... 128
Business Travel Accommodations .................................................................................................................................. 129
Who is the Typical Business Traveler? ........................................................................................................................... 131
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Introduction: How Big and Influential Is the Activity We Call Business Travel?
Business travel is a term that encompasses many activities and purposes. It includes trips taken
on behalf of sales, operations management, educational advancement, social responsibility &
charitable works, and performance rewards. Moreover, the activity of business travel is viewed in
different ways by different actors. Travel suppliers see it as a significant source of revenue and
primary market segment. Corporate management sees it as both a principal business input and a
controllable expense. Travel Buyers and Managers view it as an optimization challenge. Policymakers (should) see it as
a generator of jobs, income, and tax revenue -albeit an underappreciated one. Finally, veteran business travelers view it
as an important part of their daily lives.
For all its definitions and purposes, the activity of business travel lacks a comprehensive and coherent description.
Clearly, information and metrics concerning business travel's size & growth, economic contribution, and traveler behavior
would benefit all of the actors mentioned above. Unfortunately, there is no definitive source for these metrics, one that
provides a comprehensive view of both the absolute and relative size of business travel activity.
The NBTA is the ideal organization to provide this critical foundation. Developing and distributing business travel
measures, examining issues, and detail emerging trends are all within the stated goals of the organization and are
consistent with member expectations.
To aid this effort, IHS Global Insight has developed measures of the current global market for business travel,
analyzed its historical trends, and created a projection through 2013. A separate and more detailed view of the
US business travel market was also provided. Next, the economic contribution or impact of business travel was
estimated for the U.S. Finally, a comprehensive profile of the US business traveler provides a detailed analysis
of travel incidence, spending, and behavior.
This report presents the results of our findings and the storylines behind them. IHS Global Insight has created a
report covering the all-important demand side of the business travel market. Metrics covering business travel volume, trip
behavior, spending, and costs have been combined with a complete profile of the U.S. business traveler. Clearly, supply
side measures (e.g. air & hotel revenue) are an important part of the process, but it is the development of comprehensive
measures of the demand side of business travel that make this research initiative unique.
The report also describes business travel's place in the global economy what drives it, which sectors participate and at
what levels, and how it has changed over time. Importantly, the process by which these business travel measures have
been created can be refreshed on (at least) an annual basis so that ongoing monitoring of the business travel market is
possible. Consequently, this report can perhaps be envisioned as an "annual report on the state of global business
travel".
Travel managers, buyers, and suppliers will all benefit from the research findings. Informing marketing strategy, assisting
resource allocation and prioritization, and benchmarking travel programs/policies are all potential applications of this
research effort. Moreover, policymakers and citizens can both benefit from a better understanding of the size and
contribution that business travel makes to job creation, income generation, and tax receipts in the U.S.
Examples of highlights and implications include:
Business travel is becoming more global. Travel managers should be increasingly thinking in terms of global
programs and policies.
High-growth markets (such as China, India, and the Middle East) should be a key part of strategies going
forward.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
The recession that began in earnest late in 2008 will make for a very difficult 2009.
The rates of recovery from the current recession will vary in each country. Travel managers should leverage the
market-specific projections to better prioritize market activity and resource allocation during next 18 months
There are substantial opportunities for travel management to address the 46% of business travel spend that is
outside of air, hotel, and rental cars.
Industry sectors with high Travel-Spend-per-Sales-Dollar, such as real estate, government, utilities and
professional services, stand to save the most from managed travel activities.
The productivity of business travel has grown dramatically over the past decade.
Although business travel is becoming more productive, it is still a significant portion of company spend. On
average in the U.S., business travel comprises about:
o
American business travelers are typically between the ages of 35 and 54 years old. They are married (76%),
and have no children living in their households (60%). They most likely work in a managerial or professional
position (35%) and make an average yearly income of $78,700.
Business travelers will usually drive to their destinations (60%). The most common destinations are Los Angeles
(3.79%), New York (3.05%), San Francisco (2.77%), or Chicago (2.64%). The specific purpose of a business trip
is quite broad, but is typically transient business (62%) involving sales/purchasing (11%) or group business
involving seminars/training (15%). The business traveler will make a reservation (83%) to stay at a high-end or
mid-level hotel (28% and 31%) usually pays with a credit card (63%).
A business traveler will spend an average of $465 during their stay, mostly on transportation (37%) and food
(20%). Their trip will usually lasts three days or less (87%) when they will leave to go home to Los Angeles
(5.3%), New York (3.9%), or Dallas-Fort Worth (2.4%). A typical business trip will average 343 miles one-way.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
A bespoke survey of financial management (CFOs & Controllers) at a representative sample of U.S. public and
private companies. Over 500 completed interviews captured information regarding travel & entertainment (T&E
spending, as well as the commitment to travel management programs, policies, and personnel.
IPK International
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
National Input/Output Accounts for 48 of the 72 countries analyzed in the study (source: typically Ministry of
Commerce or Statistics)
Various international government sources, including Ministries of Transportation, Tourism, and Commerce
IHS Global Insight's US and International data, modeling assets, and industry expertise.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Minnesota, and currently managed by the MIG Group. The IMPLAN model has fast become the defacto standard for U.S.
economic impact assessment among analysts, academia, and policy consultants. IHS Global Insight uses IMPLAN
extensively in its economic impact work on behalf of tourism destinations around the country.
DEFINITIONS
The resulting global travel database, forecasts, and report created from this research effort can be used to inform many
strategic and tactical decisions. Users among the travel manager, buyer, and supplier community should, however, be
sure of what the estimates do and do not include, particularly when comparing the findings to other external or internal
measures. In fact, during initial presentations of the results, IHS Global Insight fielded a similar set of definitional
questions that we thought deserved mention in this report.
The first definition is that of business travel itself. Our objective was to be as comprehensive as possible resulting in the
inclusion of all kinds of business trips and trip spending, including:
Trips on behalf of sales, operations, training, convention/meeting, maintenance/repair, incentive, and customer
service
Trip spending includes all categories -air, hotel, rental car, other ground transportation, personal vehicles, food &
beverage, entertainment, and miscellaneous expenses.
Another important definitional note revolves around the use of U.S. dollars to represent business travel spending.
Comparison across countries required that local currencies be converted to US dollars using prevailing exchange rates
from IHS Global Insight's FOREX database. Moreover, all dollar values are expressed in current or nominal terms. This
means the effects of inflation are included in both the estimates of industry sales and business travel spending.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Size of the economy the level of business activity is paramount of course, as is its growth trajectory.
Land mass, population, and business dispersion of the country larger countries with widely dispersed
populations require more travel to facilitate economic and business development
Industry mix of the economy countries whose economies are dominated by sectors that are more travel-intense
will rise in the rankings
Productivity of business travel business travel is a material/service input to virtually every industry. Whether
business travel's role in business success is rising or falling over time is a function of its factor productivity and the
availability of substitutes. In countries with well-developed network infrastructure, for example, high-quality video
conferencing alternatives can incrementally reduce the amount of business travel. On the other side, better
transportation infrastructure can reduce the cost of a trip, perhaps promoting more and/or longer trips.
Degree of export dominance countries with large trade sectors (China, Germany, Japan, Indonesia) will tend to
engage in more international business travel. On a per-trip basis, spending will tend to be higher in these
economies. Trip volume will tend to be lower, however. In countries where economic activity is more dependent
upon consumption (U.S., India, U.K.), domestic business travel will dominate.
Physical location proximity to markets and supply chain. Countries that are far from their markets will by
definition require more business travel to in order for businesses to succeed
Infrastructure development this factor speaks to the ability to travel. Is the transportation and hospitality
infrastructure sufficient for business travel to flourish?
Environmental, tax, security, and regulatory policy does the government help or hinder business travel? Policies
aimed at improving security, reducing fiscal deficits, or regulating land use -depending upon how they are
structured- can incrementally damage or promote business travel.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
GLOBAL SUMMARY
IHS Global Insight estimates that total business travel spending across the globe reached $929 billion in 2008. This
represents growth of over 3% versus 2007, much of it coming from countries other than the United States. The definition
of business travel in this case includes both domestic and outbound international trips.
North America, Western Europe, and Asia dominate global business travel activity, with each representing about 30% of
total in 2008. Asia, Emerging Europe, and Middle East & Africa have led the way with respect to the rate of growth since
1998, however.
The lion's share of this nearly $900+ billion
dollars does take place within the U.S.,
however. At $261 billion, the U.S. comprises
about 28% of all business travel. Given its size
and torrid growth, China is the second largest
business travel market at $93.8 billion in 2008.
Growth around the world has been anything but
uniform. While the U.S. dominates in terms of
spending levels, growth has been more robust
in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and
Eastern Europe. This is largely a reflection of
rapid economic growth in these regions, as well
as the tendency for business travel to be used
more intensively in earlier stages of
company/industry development. Many of these
counties also lack the infrastructure sufficient to
promote non-travel alternatives to business
communication needs.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Western Europe, North America (NAFTA), and Asia-Pacific are all about the same size with respect to the level of
business travel spending in 2008. Together, they account for nearly 90% of global activity. The remaining 10% takes
place in Latin America, Emerging Europe, and the Middle East & Africa (MEA). Growth in business travel spending over
the past decade paints a slightly different picture. North America and Western Europe have been the growth laggards,
while Asia, Emerging Europe, and MEA have led the way. IHS Global Insight estimates that worldwide business travel
spending activity has increased by over 35% since 1998. Some of this growth is due to inflation (all estimates are in
current US dollars), but most represents real increases in the volume and dispersion of business travel activity around the
world.
Among the top 25 markets, Russia has been the fastest growing over the past decade (1998-2008), registering
compound annual growth of about 16% per year. This is more than eight times the rate of U.S. growth (1.9%) during that
same period. Indonesia (15%) and China (14%) also registered double digit growth per year over that period. Turkey
(9.2%), India (8.8%) and South Korea (8.4%) are also notable in terms of business travel spending expansion.
Meanwhile, World growth in business travel spending (measured in nominal dollars) over the last decade achieved 4.6%
per year.
While many countries grew more quickly than
the U.S, all started from a much smaller base.
China, the number two business travel market,
is only about 1/3 the size of the U.S. at
present. Japan, at $78 billion in 2008, is the
third largest market, yet only 30% as large as
the U.S. Italy floats to the top of the rankings
on the strength of its export and domestic
economic performance over the past decade.
Moreover, Italy's current industrial mix favors
industry's that are relatively more travel
intense.
The market with the fastest rate of growth
during the last decade was Zimbabwe, at 35%
per year. This performance is impressive, but
total business travel spending in that country
was only $3.2 billion in 2008.
Another way to analyze growth is to focus upon
the change in the level of business travel
spending between 1998 and 2008. In the U.S.,
for example, annual business travel spending
was $44 billion higher in 2008 than it was in
1998. China expanded by nearly $70 billion
and Russia grew by only $15 billion during the
same period. Zimbabwe grew to $3.2 billion from virtually zero during the past decade.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
The top 25 business travel markets are shown in the table below, along with their 1998-2008 growth performance.
TOP 25 GLOBALBUSINESS TRAVEL MARKETS
Based on Domestic and Outbound International (in millions of current U.S. $$)
IHS Global Insight also examined business travel spending by industry around the world. The table below identifies the
largest and most travel-dependent sectors. The level and growth of business travel spending is contrasted with organic
global industry sales. Sector growth in business travel spending is dependent upon both the organic growth of the
industry as well as the intensity and productivity of travel as a critical input.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
$100,000
$90,000
in Millions of Current US$
$80,000
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$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
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The Utilities, Food Processing & Services, Real Estate, and Government sectors float to the top of the rankings primarily
due to their sheer size across the globe. Utilities, Food Processing, and Real Estate do engage in significant business
travel in relative terms as well. For example, Utilities have a very large service & repair component at both the retail and
generation levels, ones that require significant investments in business travel. Many employees of these organizations
travel almost every day.
Virtually every country has a well-established presence in these basic sectors. For many developing economies, these
sectors are the primary benefactors of critical infrastructure investment. With the exception of Utilities, their usage of
business travel per dollar of industry sales or per industry employee is generally not as large as, say, the Banking &
Financial sector or Professional & Business services, yet the size of these industries, as demonstrated in the column
entitled, "Industry Sales 2008", adds up to significant levels of business travel spending.
Turning to subject of growth in business travel spending over the last decade, Oil Refining, Education, Chemicals, and
Social & Personal Services lead the list. In part due to organic growth around the world, in part due to rapid economic
expansion in developing countries, and in part due to increasing usage of business travel, these industries have led the
way.
Note that the Top 25 sectors account for nearly 92% of all global business travel. The remaining industries are either
relatively small (e.g. Textile Manufacturing), less intense users of business travel (e.g. Mining, Retail Trade), or both (e.g.
Apparel, Wood Products). The last column in the table counts the dollar increase in business travel spending over the
decade 1998 to 2008. Here again, the larger business travel sectors tend to dominate the list. Business travel spending
in the Food Processing & Services had a relatively sluggish growth rate over the decade, but its size and global dispersion
11
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
make it the 5th largest industry for increasing the level of business travel spending, roughly adding $1.8 billion per year
during 1998-2008.
TOP 25 GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL SECTORS:
Ranked on 2008 Business Travel Spending $$
12
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
As mentioned, our key measure of business travel intensity varies across industries and countries. For any one sector,
the degree of business travel required to support a measured level of revenue is a function of the unique operating
framework of that sector, as well as the physical, regulatory, and cultural attributes of each country.
The chart shows the distribution of travel-spend-per-revenue dollar across the 72 countries examined in the study for the
sector, Professional & Business Services. We chose this industry as an example because it is anecdotally understood to
Source: IHS Global Insight, OECD, UN/WTO, various Ministries of Commerce, Statistics, & Tourism
be among the most travel-intense of the 48 sectors included in our research. With a global average of 1.1 per dollar of
revenue, the chart shows the dispersion of the 72 countries around the global average. It should be noted that for some
of the countries, IHS Global Insight was unable to find a defensible source for this critical metric. Generally, they were
smaller or developing countries (e.g. Bangladesh, Jordan, Costa Rica, etc.) that lack detailed economic and business data
of all kinds. In those cases, we imposed the global average hence the many countries that appear on the global average
line.
Note the above-average travel intensity of some of the Western European countries, registering in the 1.5-1.6 per
revenue dollar range. This is a significant difference over some of the developing countries such as Mexico or the
Ukraine, showing rates in the half-cent per revenue dollar range. Western Europe boasts a large and well-developed
Professional & Business Services sector that must engage in a great deal of business travel in order to support its
relatively large level of sector revenue. The opposite is true of countries such as Mexico or Greece, where the industry is
in an earlier stage of development.
Next, we take a deeper dive into a specific country showing the differences in travel intensity across domestic industries.
Using the United Kingdom as an example, many of the key sectors have been highlighted in the bar chart. Measures of
business travel intensity range from a high of 3.7 per revenue dollar for Equipment Leasing to a low of Mining with
fractions of a penny per revenue dollar. The U.K. all-industry average is about 0.9 per revenue dollar.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Keep in mind that this metric is not an indicator of the size of business travel spending. Rubber & Plastics, for example,
may show relatively high travel intensity, but the industry is a small player in the U.K. economy. The opposite is true of
sectors such as Education or Government.
Keeping with the U.K. example, we can also illustrate the notion of travel intensity over time. As previously mentioned,
upward or downward trends in travel spend-per-revenue-dollar speak to the changing productivity of business travel as a
key production input. Examining the change in business travel's intensity in the Professional & Business Services
industry, we note that travel intensity is trending down over the last decade. Travel is becoming a smaller portion of the
industry's total cost. Said
differently, business travel's
productivity is on the rise.
There are many possible reasons
for the increase in travel
productivity:
A reduction in travel
prices relative to the
price of other inputs and
of wages
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Increased usage of business travel alternatives such as conference calls, Webcasts, and video conferencing.
Improvements in both the usage and quality of travel management. Through cost reductions and productivity
improvements, travel management has added to the efficiency and contribution made by business travel.
A gradual change in the structure of the industry where, for example, companies begin to locate closer to their
markets and/or supply chains.
IHS Global Insight has forecasted future changes in travel intensity for each industry. Using a combination of a number of
secular and cyclical factors, we have generally continued the trends observed over the past decade across industries and
countries. This was an important building block for the business travel spending projections presented in the next section.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
other primary commodities prices since last July is providing timely relief for both consumers and businesses, the price
levels are likely to remain elevated compared with their long-term historical averages.
Moreover, the odds are that the global economy will continue to face major headwinds for some months as a result of the
declines in global property markets and the tightening of lending standards by beleaguered financial institutions.
International trade is no longer supporting world growth. Until recently, international trade had been a key pillar of
support for the global economy in general and raw-material-exporting economies and countries with undervalued
currencies in particular. With nearly two-thirds of the world economy now in the midst of a major contraction, though,
foreign trade has now become a drag for the global growth. IHS Global Insight expects world nominal merchandise
exports to contract more than 23% in 2009. World trade could stabilize before the end of this year, but it is unlikely to
make a full recovery to its normal pace of double global GDP growth before 2011.
The worst of the downturn is behind us. The global economy's recession, which intensified at an alarming pace in
September 2008, has been moderating since March and appears to be nearing its end. Recent data releases are no
longer as depressing as they were earlier this year, and there are increasing signs for at least a modest recovery during
the second half of this year. Financial-market indicators, in particular, have been showing increasing signs of stabilisation
for several months as credit conditions have started to loosen up and corporate bond spreads have narrowed, which are
providing badly needed financial relief for beleaguered businesses.
Our latest bottom-up global economic forecast-which was started in late May and published in mid-June-resulted in a
world GDP growth projection of -2.6% for 2009, which represents the world economy's most severe annual contraction
in more than 60 years. To be sure, the world economy is still in a highly fragile state, with most investors still avoiding
risky assets and market consensus anticipating a "great recession" for 2009. The downturn has been particularly acute in
the case of industries, as aggregate global output is projected to decline by more than 10% during 2009. Latest nationalaccount reports confirm that world GDP growth declined sharply for the second consecutive quarter in the first quarter of
2009.
Nevertheless, recent high-frequency data releases suggest that the rate of contraction has diminished in the
second quarter, and there is now a good chance that we may see a modest rise in global GDP in the third quarter. The
economies of Greater China and the United States are likely to lead the recovery among emerging markets and advanced
economies, respectively, because of their diverse base, dynamic structure, and more flexible and competitive markets
relative to their peers.
Given the unsettled condition of global credit markets, the world economy's deleveraging is likely to continue
through late 2009. The severity of the financial market turmoil has already devastated the U.S. investment banking
sector, severely depressed asset prices worldwide, and caught policymakers flatfooted. The global credit system has
become highly dysfunctional. The entire subprime mortgage market remains effectively shut down, and more broadly, the
structured credit markets are still in seizure. The volume of both outstanding asset-backed commercial paper and
leveraged buy-out activity has fallen off dramatically. The number of initial public offerings (IPOs) has collapsed to near
zero since the second quarter. Financial firms, which have been forced to write down trillions of dollars in bad debt since
the second quarter of 2007, are finding it increasingly difficult to raise capitalin part because of the sharp drop in their
share prices during the past two years and in part because their credit ratings have nosedived sharply. The strain on the
financial system has engulfed the corporate sector, as reflected in rising corporate bond spreads, particularly in the highyield segment.
World growth will not get above trend until the advanced economies' housing markets stabilize. The advanced
economies are now in a very fragile state, as they have been dragged down by a protracted housing downturn and
deleveraging in financial markets. Because of the huge share of these countries in the global economy, world quarterly
GDP growth is now in the midst of a major contraction. IHS Global Insight now expects the downturn to engulf all
economies, including emerging markets and less-developed countries, given their dependence on exporting to advanced
economies.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Weak growth will keep financial markets volatile. The global financial system has already seen its capital base
damaged by the U.S.-led housing and mortgage crisis, and the credibility of its institutions has come under question as a
result of inadequate transparency and imprudent investment decisions. The deteriorating global economic outlook and
uncertainties on the extent of damage to financial institutions' balance sheets will keep lending activity subdued, risky
assets out of favor, and investors skittish for at least the next several months. The resulting deleveraging and
disintermediation have already depressed global economic activity.
High oil prices represent another major risk for the global economy's growth prospects. During the past seven
years, periodic spikes in global oil prices sapped economic recovery by dampening consumer confidence and
discouraging businesses from adopting aggressive expansion plans. High oil prices were particularly harmful to energyintensive sectors, such as transportation and some industrial-material-processing industries. The responsibility of oil
prices for the global economy's momentum losses should not be exaggerated, though. Although oil prices undoubtedly
shaved several tenths of a percentage point from the global economy's aggregate growth since 2004, their impact was far
less severe compared with previous oil crisesparticularly those of the 1970s and 1980s. Indeed, rising oil prices had
relatively modest adverse effects on overall inflation during the last business cycle because of the global economy's lower
oil intensity and lingering output gaps in many sectors, which greatly diminished the impact of high oil prices on core
inflation. We take a specific look at the impact of oil prices on business travel in the U.S. Business Travel Forecast
section of this report.
With oil prices having retreated by more than 60% during the second half of 2008, central banks have had substantial
latitude for easing their monetary policies as much as they want. Nevertheless, some financial-market analysts continue to
believe that oil remains in a long-term bull market and expect global crude prices to resume their upward
advance.
The advanced economies' inflation upsurge is over. High oil and raw-material prices led to spikes in headline inflation
throughout the world during 2007 and the first half of 2008, but core inflation rates remained relatively low, particularly
among advanced economies and dynamic Asian economies. In any case, since mid-2008, the ongoing world growth
deceleration, along with powerful deflationary pressures from the housing downturn, has weakened labor markets;
constrained unit labor cost growth, and exerted downward pressure on the prices of housing and energy and other
industrial raw materials. These developments have contained inflationary pressures and eased concerns about
macroeconomic imbalances, as reflected in recent downward revisions to the inflation forecasts in surveys published by
Consensus Economics
The good news is that real interest rates remain low, and monetary authorities have ample room for easing. The
advanced economies' low core inflation rates suggest that monetary policy could heavily err on the accommodative side
even if energy and raw material prices resumed their upward march over the coming months. By reducing the households'
discretionary spending, any upward relative price shock from food, energy, or other industrial raw materials has a
deflationary (rather than inflationary) effect on domestic demand. As a result, we do not expect any monetary tightening
by major central banks before 2010.
As a result, global growth should rebound in 2010. Despite its current weakness, we expect the world economy to
stabilize during the second half of 2009, thanks to the advanced economies' reflationary measures, and shift to a higher
gear by mid-2010. Nevertheless, given the protracted nature of housing-market adjustments, world growth will likely be
less robust over the next several quarters than during the past five years of the current business cycle.
Indeed, the anticipated global recovery could turn out to be unsustainable. Growth may falter again in 2010 or 2011,
as many of the problems afflicting credit markets are deep rooted. Financial markets could remain vulnerable to periodic
bouts of intense volatility and disruptive risk re-pricing. It may take additional, extraordinary policy action by policymakers,
such as costly government bailouts of financial institutions and quantitative monetary easing, to get us out of the current
rut and prevent a prolonged crisis.
A longer-than-anticipated housing downturn is now the global economy's worst nightmare. With housing assets
extremely overvalued in many countries, the current housing-market adjustments could turn out to be a very protracted
17
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
process. A synchronous worldwide housing crash has the potential to unleash powerful global deflationary pressures for
several years. With a growing list of countries already mired in housing-market downturns of various degrees of severity,
financial markets are likely to remain at risk of further turmoil and disorderly price correction. If the housing-market
downturn intensifies and spreads to other countries, we could be facing an escalating debt-asset deflation, the likes of
which has not been experienced since the 1930s.
Global business profit and investment growth, which has decelerated intensely in line with nominal world GDP,
will start to recover in the second half of 2009. The financial firms' profits will likely rebound first, from their current
horrendous state, thanks to the central banks' rapid "steepening" of the yield curve. Non-financial firms' profit levels will
also rebound soon after, as their drastic retrenchments reduce their costs, nominal global GDP stops contracting, and
world aggregate demand begins to improve.
Bottom Line: The global economy is in the midst of a potentially dangerous crisis that may linger on beyond 2010
and has the potential to get a lot worse before it gets better. Furthermore, the anticipated recovery that is likely to
start in 2010 may prove disappointing given that the primary source of the ongoing weakness is a deep and protracted
correction in housing markets. Housing market downturns tend to be long-lasting processes that can go on for 5 to 10
years. With most banks continuing to tighten their lending standards for businesses as well as consumers, financial
markets will remain jittery and vulnerable to periodic bouts of intense volatility and disruptive risk re-pricing. The
stabilization of financial markets may require even more aggressive monetary easing and liquidity injections than we have
seen so farsuch as government takeovers of many more financial institutions (or their "toxic" debts). Indeed, given the
severity of the distortions in asset markets as a result of the past several years' easy credit, the complete normalization of
credit markets could take several years.
.
World Economy Annual Aggregate Forecast Numbers
(Percent change from a year earlier, unless otherwise specified)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4.1
4.0
2.2
-2.6
1.9
7,495
8,331
9,071
8,359
8,753
4.3
4.0
-0.3
-10.1
3.5
11,600
13,432
15,481
11,452
12,277
11,475
13,205
15,183
12,073
12,879
23.9
24.6
25.7
20.4
20.7
2.8
2.6
0.3
-2.2
1.8
3.1
3.3
5.0
1.5
2.2
4.6
4.1
8.6
-4.6
1.4
6.9
6.9
4.6
10.8
4.6
9.0
10.2
9.7
6.2
6.7
4.9
4.9
3.2
2.2
2.5
4.9
5.4
5.0
3.3
3.1
4.7
5.0
4.8
4.3
4.3
-0.9
-0.4
-2.0
-6.9
-5.9
Real GDP
Nominal Per-Capita GDP (U.S. Dollars)
Industrial Production
18
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
19
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
20032007
20082012
World
2.8
3.5
2.0
United States
2.6
2.5
1.6
Canada
3.5
2.4
2.0
Western Europe
2.2
2.1
0.2
European Union
2.3
2.3
0.3
Eurozone
2.1
2.0
0.1
United Kingdom
3.0
2.3
0.7
Asia-Pacific
3.5
5.0
3.9
Japan
0.9
1.6
0.4
Rest of Region
5.9
7.3
5.8
Australia
3.4
3.1
2.4
China
8.7
10.8
8.6
India
5.7
8.5
7.0
South Korea
6.3
4.2
2.4
6.8
7.5
1.4
2.8
5.6
1.6
0.7
3.1
1.3
3.6
6.2
3.5
Sub-Saharan Africa
3.3
5.6
3.2
20
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
States had already experienced a decline in business travel well in advance of the rapid decay in many of the key
economic indicators largely a fourth quarter phenomena. By early 2009, every significant business travel market was
experiencing year-over-year declines.
The rather dramatic "V" shaped recession depicted below assumes a market bottom in late 2009. It will be 2010, even
2011 for some countries, before growth rates turn positive, however. Said differently, key business travel markets will
recover from the "Great Recession", but the global recovery will be more tepid. Repairing the damage done to global
housing and credit markets will take time. Still, the good news is that the Great Recession will end and growth markets
will return.
Yr-to-Yr Percent
20%
India
10%
United States
United Kingdom
0%
Germany
-10%
Russia
-20%
World Total
-30%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
-40%
Source: IHS Global Insight, NBTA, OECD, UN/WTO, Various Ministries of Commerce & Tourism
22
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Depending upon the definition of business travel growth through 2013, the world picture looks quite different. Basing the
definition on the increase in the level of business travel spending (above), North America and Asia are the dominant
regions. Changing the perspective to the rate of growth (below) suggests a different spatial view of the globe. Latin
America, Eastern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East appear more favorable.
GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING GROWTH:
2008-2013 COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IN %
23
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Source: HIS Global Insight, NBTA, OECD, UN/TWO, various Ministries of Commerce & Tourism
24
China leads the way in business travel spending growth through 2013. The combination of torrid economic
growth and the sheer size of its business travel market push China to the top of the list. China's significant economic
stimulus measures implemented early on in the current global recession are already bearing fruit. Infrastructure
investment and consumption support were key platforms of the stimulus. Both will lead to greater business travel,
particularly domestic trips, as their economy recovers.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
The U.S. comes in at #4 on the business travel dollar growth rankings, based upon size and a relatively early
start at economic recovery. The recovery will begin as soon as the second half of 2009, yet will be slow by past
standards. Expected to grow a relatively slow rate (0.3% per year) through 2013, the U.S. will still add more than $4.2
billion in business travel spending.
India, like China, is expected to return to its earlier position as a global growth leader. India's economy is less
dependent on export markets than China. Government stimulus efforts in India also focused on domestic demand
support. This will lead to more growth in domestic business travel activity in the short-to-medium term.
Japan will show surprising business travel resilience as their economy awakens from a long sleep.
Improvements in domestic business activity and eventual recovery in export markets will drive more business travel.
Japan's business travel market is already large and is expected in increase over 3.3% per year through 2013.
Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Taiwan will rebound quickly as global export markets begin to
thaw. Recovery in their international and, in some cases, domestic business travel markets will quickly follow suit.
The size of their existing business travel markets coupled with expectations for a return to above-trend economic
growth places them all on the Top 15 list.
Emerging European markets, likewise, will shake off the current recession and begin to recover in 2010.
Commodity market improvements, as well as export recovery, will get business travel spending growth back on track.
Markets such as the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary are already large enough to make some noise on the
country business travel hit parade. Economic growth expectations guarantee that they will continue to rise.
Iran makes the Top 15 list based upon its size and growth over the past decade. Domestic business travel is
already significant in this market, and international outbound has expanded despite longstanding economic sanctions.
Still, Iran's political situation is a significant risk. Instability could erase business travel gains almost overnight,
particularly if the situation boils over.
A less robust and somewhat delayed economic recovery in much of Western Europe push many of its
business travel markets into the Bottom 15 list, at least through 2013. The housing crisis in the U.K., Spain, and
Ireland, among others, is much worse than in the U.S. and, unfortunately, still has a long way to go. Moreover, the
banking and financial crisis is actually more acute and potentially damaging in Western Europe. Finally, longer-term
systemic issues such as an aging population, labor market problems, and lower investment spending will continue to
hamper growth in business travel spending in this part of the world.
Germany and Italy make the Bottom 15 list primarily due to export dependence and sluggish domestic
demand. Both countries have significant domestic business travel markets, particularly relative to the rest of Western
Europe. Both countries are expected to be relatively late in the sequence of economic recovery and, as a result,
show a loss in business travel spending through 2013.
Russia's dependence upon commodity exports, particularly oil and natural gas, puts it at the bottom of the
list through 2013. It will recover from the current recession, but it will be among the last countries to commence its
rebound. Domestic and international business travel will begin to grow again, but too late to spare Russia the dubious
distinction of being at the bottom of the 2008-2013 list.
Transposing our view of business travel markets, IHS Global Insight can also evaluate the prospects for travel spending
across global industry sectors. From the vantage point of industries, the pace of recovery from the current recession is
very much a function of which countries dominate the sector and the amount to which economic stimulus package funds
flow to that sector. For example, infrastructure investment in China, India, and the U.S. will propel sectors such as
Government, Construction, Utilities, and Education to the top of the list. On the other hand, continuing problems in the
global Banking & Financial sectors prevent it from making the Top 20.
25
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Source: IHS Global Insight, NBTA, OECD, various Ministries of Commerce, Statistics, & Tourism
From a business travel spending perspective, Government is clearly participating in the current recession.
Because of its key role in leading many countries out of of recession, Government business travel growth in 2010 will
be among the highest. Likewise, for Education. Taken over the five-year period 2009-2013, Government (federal and
local) will show the largest level increase in business travel spending.
Sectors such as Utilities, Food Processing & Services, and Education make the list for two key reasons. First,
they exist in virtually every country and have a scale correlated with the size/growth of population. Secondly, recovery
from the global recession will be led by these industries. Government stimulus money has poured into infrastructure
development, propelling these sectors out of the recovery gate sooner.
Notable industries missing from this list include Banking & Finance and Profession & Business Services.
While these sectors are relatively travel-intense, the depth of their declines and the slower pace of their expected
recoveries keep them just below the cutoff of the Top 20 list. Business travel spending for these industries, as well as
for Wholesale Trade, will grow during this recovery, just not enough to break into the Top 20. In the case of Banking
& Finance, despite average annual growth of 1.6% per year through 2013, the magnitude of the decline during this
recession unfortunately prevents a return to the previous peak.
The prospects and rankings for many of these sectors changes dramatically as one moves from country to country. To
illustrate this point, the next section takes each of the Top 20 business travel country markets and dives deeper into the
issue of industry-by-industry performance over the next five years.
26
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Which sectors represent the best targets? From a purely external perspective, the short answer is those that are:
(1) organically growing their own lines of business at home and abroad,
(2) are already business travel-intense, and
(3) are expected to grow that intensity over the next few years.
Once way to depict the distribution of sectors across these key criterion is to use a "dogs-and-stars" scatter plot.
Dispersing the industries across business travel spending size (2008) and growth (2008-2013 CAGR%) suggests their
relative position and potential attractiveness as a target market.
Mature
Utilities
Food Processing and Services
Real Estate
Transportation Services
Stars
Government
Construction
Communications Services
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry,
Petroleum Refining
Fishing
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
$10,000
Motor Vehicles
Recycling
Office, Accounting & Computing
Machinery Apparel
Lower Priority
$1,000
-4.0%
Emerging
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
All of the sectors falling in the "Stars" quadrant are already notably large spenders on business travel. They are also
expected to grow that spending over the next five years. We have already mentioned Utilities and Construction, but other
sectors such as Communications Services, Transportation Services, and Chemicals also deserve consideration. Motor
Vehicles is perhaps the most notable "Lower Priority" quadrant. For one, this industry is not a large user of business
travel. Moreover, its global market challenges are already well-known. Notable sectors in the "Emerging" quadrant
include Computer Manufacturing, Instrumentation, and Industrial Machinery.
Banking & Finance, Business Services, and Wholesale Trade find themselves in the "Mature" quadrant. We already know
them to be very travel-intense. The challenge lies in their ability (and pace) to recover from the current recession and
grow business travel through 2013.
27
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Low Priority those industries with either low levels of business travel, lower growth expectations, or both
Mature industries with relatively large levels of current business travel spending, but have less robust
future growth prospects are classified as more mature.
Emerging industries with excellent growth prospects, but relatively smaller current levels of business
travel spending are placed in this category.
Stars these are industries with both large current levels of business travel spending and relatively strong
prospects for future growth.
Chart and table sources are (unless otherwise noted) from IHS Global Insight, NBTA, OECD, UN/WTO, and countryspecific Ministries of Commerce, Statistics, and Tourism
28
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Australia
Economic Outlook
Inventories, investment, and consumer spending all continue to decline. IHS Global Insight subsequently expects
the economy will experience a contraction of around 0.6% in 2009 as the lagged, full impact of the downturn
unfurls from the second quarter onwards.
In anticipation of a potential economic slowdown, authorities have dramatically loosened monetary and fiscal
policy. Spending programs include direct cash disbursals for low- and middle-income households for employment
generation and support for first-time buyers in the real estate market.
Australian banks are marked for their high levels of capitalization and more conservative lending practices.
Nevertheless, rapidly rising unemployment and growing income insecurity could offset the positive impact of
looser credit.
29
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
$131,683
7.7%
$1,602.6
9.2%
8.2%
-25.9%
2.3%
1.8%
$152.76
$77,916
4.6%
$288.8
1.7%
11.1%
-15.3%
9.9%
8.1%
$136.81
$92.50
Government
$84,424
4.9%
$934.3
5.4%
6.9%
-20.0%
3.7%
1.9%
$44,642
2.6%
$903.9
5.2%
7.8%
-27.8%
1.9%
0.6%
$27.85
$7,756
0.5%
$224.0
1.3%
4.2%
-26.3%
1.9%
1.7%
$19.95
Communications Services
$47,840
2.8%
$771.1
4.4%
5.7%
-25.9%
1.2%
0.4%
$16.39
$11,966
0.7%
$52.7
0.3%
7.9%
-22.2%
0.7%
2.6%
$7.16
$6,989
0.4%
$171.0
1.0%
7.4%
-27.9%
1.3%
0.6%
$5.57
$2,965
0.2%
$32.0
0.2%
9.7%
-21.9%
3.1%
2.1%
$3.59
Transportation Equipment
$6,804
0.4%
$88.9
0.5%
3.4%
-24.5%
1.6%
0.6%
$2.79
$1.94
Mining
$134,670
7.9%
$22.2
0.1%
24.8%
-27.5%
1.7%
1.7%
$29,122
1.7%
$227.9
1.3%
4.7%
-26.3%
1.1%
0.1%
$1.33
$6,152
0.4%
$66.5
0.4%
9.0%
-25.0%
-0.7%
0.0%
$0.14
$2,472
0.1%
$0.0
0.0%
11.6%
-15.9%
12.7%
11.3%
$0.03
$441
0.0%
$2.7
0.0%
6.1%
-21.7%
-0.8%
-0.3%
-$0.04
$848
0.0%
$3.1
0.0%
-0.1%
-26.7%
0.1%
-1.7%
-$0.25
$2,177
0.1%
$13.4
0.1%
4.1%
-22.6%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-$0.53
$113,950
6.7%
$6.1
0.0%
-3.3%
-52.2%
21.7%
-3.7%
-$1.05
Apparel
Health & Social Work
Wood & Wood Products
$7,394
0.4%
$138.0
0.8%
6.3%
-27.9%
0.8%
-0.3%
-$1.98
Textiles
$3,199
0.2%
$55.8
0.3%
1.2%
-27.2%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-$2.04
$1,709,747
100%
$17,457
100%
6.4%
-27.5%
0.4%
-0.7%
-$571.39
Total
30
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
31
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$1,602.6
$1,241.6
$934.3
$903.9
$771.1
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
1.8%
-0.1%
1.9%
0.6%
0.4%
$288.8
$227.9
$224.0
$171.0
$138.0
$88.9
$66.5
$52.7
$32.0
$22.2
$2.7
$0.0
8.1%
0.1%
1.7%
0.6%
-0.3%
0.6%
0.0%
2.6%
2.1%
1.7%
-0.3%
11.3%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$1,507.6
$1,333.7
$1,278.4
$945.5
$872.6
$816.7
$715.5
$547.9
$530.4
-0.6%
-3.0%
-1.0%
-1.1%
-3.5%
-2.7%
-2.3%
-0.6%
-3.1%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$369.7
$336.5
$274.9
$206.8
$204.4
$199.2
$130.7
$117.9
$98.3
$63.5
$55.8
$48.1
$13.4
$12.2
$6.1
$3.1
-3.4%
-3.1%
-3.7%
-1.2%
-1.1%
-2.4%
-4.7%
-2.3%
-1.3%
-1.2%
-0.7%
-1.6%
-0.8%
-5.1%
-3.7%
-1.7%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$17,456.9
-0.7%
Mature
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Austria
Economic Outlook
Economic growth will become sharply negative in 2009 and take long to recover due to persisting global financialmarket turbulences triggered by the U.S. subprime crisis, substantial euro appreciation, and weakened consumer
purchasing power.
Inflation will be very soft in coming months and is expected to rise to 1.1% in 2010. As domestic demand
continues to suffer from rising unemployment, the debate will rather shift toward deflation risksalthough IHS
Global Insight still regards such fears as overblown.
Political uncertainty will remain elevated after the collapse and resurrection of the grand coalition government and
the strengthening of the far right in the September 2008 polls.
32
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Utilities
$35,068
4.6%
$1,459.5
15.6%
8.7%
-13.6%
3.7%
-30.2%
$89.71
Education
$23,463
3.1%
$87.0
0.9%
7.7%
-3.2%
11.1%
7.7%
$38.93
$8,073
1.1%
$233.1
2.5%
7.6%
-14.5%
3.4%
2.4%
$29.90
$30,234
4.0%
$133.1
1.4%
12.2%
-8.6%
3.9%
4.0%
$28.44
Real Estate
$51,754
6.8%
$629.9
6.7%
6.9%
-14.3%
1.6%
0.7%
$22.79
$18.95
$8,663
1.1%
$211.9
2.3%
6.2%
-16.8%
3.6%
1.7%
$10,217
1.3%
$110.4
1.2%
9.1%
-10.1%
3.7%
3.0%
$17.70
Government
$31,132
4.1%
$344.5
3.7%
1.8%
-9.0%
3.3%
0.8%
$14.16
$3,715
0.5%
$40.1
0.4%
9.5%
-9.1%
5.8%
3.9%
$8.53
$11,185
1.5%
$208.8
2.2%
7.8%
-18.1%
3.1%
-52.9%
$8.47
$0.79
$15,358
2.0%
$65.7
0.7%
7.8%
-18.2%
2.7%
0.2%
Communications Services
$15,271
2.0%
$246.1
2.6%
5.6%
-13.8%
1.0%
0.1%
$0.73
$3,689
0.5%
$0.7
0.0%
14.9%
-15.1%
3.5%
1.6%
$0.06
$124
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
6.1%
-3.7%
12.7%
10.1%
$0.00
$194
0.0%
$0.7
0.0%
-0.9%
-19.4%
-3.4%
-3.8%
-$0.12
$981
0.1%
$6.0
0.1%
7.7%
-8.3%
-0.1%
-0.5%
-$0.15
Mining
33
$34,031
4.4%
$1.8
0.0%
-7.0%
-44.7%
22.5%
-3.7%
-$0.31
$1,006
0.1%
$6.2
0.1%
4.5%
-10.9%
-0.5%
-1.6%
-$0.48
$906
0.1%
$10.0
0.1%
16.8%
-27.6%
4.2%
-1.8%
-$0.88
$19,299
2.5%
$45.1
0.5%
10.7%
-21.6%
-0.1%
-0.6%
-$1.25
$764,839
100%
$9,370
100%
5.5%
-16.0%
1.5%
-0.4%
-$184.78
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
34
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$680.2
$629.9
$577.6
$507.0
$389.8
$350.7
$344.5
$276.0
$246.1
$239.7
$233.1
$229.6
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
-3.2%
0.7%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-1.3%
-2.2%
0.8%
-3.5%
0.1%
-1.9%
2.4%
-3.1%
$218.5
$211.9
$138.6
$133.1
$110.4
$101.0
$97.7
$96.2
$92.7
$92.2
$87.0
$80.6
$73.5
$65.7
$50.4
$45.1
$40.1
$11.5
$10.0
$6.2
$6.0
$1.8
$0.7
$0.7
$0.0
-0.4%
1.7%
-2.3%
4.0%
3.0%
-3.1%
-1.6%
-3.1%
-1.7%
-1.3%
7.7%
-1.2%
-1.9%
0.2%
-1.3%
-0.6%
3.9%
-3.6%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-0.5%
-3.7%
1.6%
-3.8%
10.1%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$1,459.5
$660.5
$508.4
-30.2%
-41.5%
-46.0%
Mature
Mature
Mature
$208.8
$57.1
-52.9%
-64.1%
Low Priority
Low Priority
$9,370.3
-0.4%
Star
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Belgium
Economic Outlook
Belgian GDP is projected to contract 3.3% in 2009 after growing 1.0% in 2008 which is largely due to a
deteriorating export market critical to the countrys overall economic performance.
The current financial market crisis and very tight lending conditions will restrict consumer spending in the
near term. In addition, the labor market is being hit by the current global economic downturn, and we expect
employment to decline in 2009.
Fiscal policy will continue to be restricted by the countrys high levels of public debt. We expect the Belgian
government budget to slip into negative territory in 200910, following six years of persistently balanced budgets.
35
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Education
$34,366
3.0%
$134.5
1.0%
8.1%
-2.8%
12.0%
7.9%
$10,516
0.9%
$320.7
2.3%
6.0%
-16.1%
5.0%
2.2%
$36.74
Government
$45,055
3.9%
$526.7
3.8%
4.4%
-9.4%
5.0%
1.2%
$32.59
Real Estate
$55,610
4.8%
$714.9
5.2%
5.1%
-16.6%
3.3%
0.7%
$26.11
$48,595
4.2%
$1,233.4
9.0%
2.3%
-14.6%
3.7%
0.3%
$20.65
$19,583
1.7%
$91.0
0.7%
9.7%
-9.6%
5.1%
3.9%
$19.29
$8,094
0.7%
$92.4
0.7%
6.1%
-13.1%
3.5%
1.9%
$8.94
$24,840
2.1%
$531.3
3.9%
5.9%
-17.4%
3.7%
0.3%
$7.95
Construction
$78,184
6.7%
$585.6
4.3%
5.9%
-17.5%
3.6%
0.3%
$7.44
$3,219
0.3%
$36.7
0.3%
12.0%
-10.9%
7.5%
3.7%
$7.28
$62.58
$5,977
0.5%
$154.5
1.1%
5.7%
-18.7%
4.1%
0.9%
$7.13
Transportation Equipment
$3,108
0.3%
$42.9
0.3%
3.4%
-10.1%
7.0%
3.1%
$7.00
$543
0.0%
$3.5
0.0%
9.9%
-4.4%
4.1%
1.9%
$0.34
Mining
$1,587
0.1%
$0.6
0.0%
14.0%
-15.2%
7.2%
3.7%
$0.12
$1,305
0.1%
$0.0
0.0%
6.1%
-3.8%
15.5%
11.1%
$0.02
$331
0.0%
$1.3
0.0%
5.6%
-15.6%
-0.1%
-1.9%
-$0.12
$52,622
4.5%
$3.0
0.0%
-6.1%
-45.7%
22.7%
-4.2%
-$0.57
Motor Vehicles
$28,125
2.4%
$69.5
0.5%
4.1%
-20.9%
3.8%
-0.3%
-$0.95
Apparel
$1,920
0.2%
$12.4
0.1%
3.1%
-12.7%
0.7%
-1.6%
-$0.99
$4,706
0.4%
$92.8
0.7%
7.6%
-20.5%
3.4%
-0.2%
-$1.01
$1,164,142
100%
$13,766
100%
5.1%
-20.0%
3.1%
-0.9%
-$608.81
Total
36
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
37
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$1,233.4
$714.9
$585.6
$531.3
$526.7
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
0.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
1.2%
$320.7
$157.2
$154.5
$134.5
$92.8
$92.4
$91.0
$69.5
$42.9
$36.7
$3.5
$0.6
$0.0
2.2%
-0.2%
0.9%
7.9%
-0.2%
1.9%
3.9%
-0.3%
3.1%
3.7%
1.9%
3.7%
11.1%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$1,828.8
$1,263.9
$982.0
$919.7
$831.5
$455.0
$386.6
$357.5
-2.4%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.6%
-1.4%
-3.3%
-1.9%
-0.8%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$313.6
$278.2
$270.8
$161.5
$152.0
$143.9
$142.8
$137.9
$111.2
$76.9
$56.5
$47.0
$43.9
$12.4
$3.0
$1.3
-2.6%
-2.8%
-0.6%
-1.2%
-0.7%
-3.1%
-3.3%
-4.0%
-1.7%
-3.8%
-4.0%
-2.9%
-2.9%
-1.6%
-4.2%
-1.9%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$13,766.1
-0.9%
Mature
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Brazil
Economic Outlook
Brazil will come out of the recession earlier than most countries in the developed world helped by domestic
demand, strong fiscal stimulus, expansionary monetary policy, and credit availability.
The central bank will continue to take measures to avoid a liquidity crisis by guaranteeing the availability of credit
for banks and corporations. We expect commodity prices to show high volatility, although revolving around current
levels.
A trade surplus is anticipated for the foreseeable future even though exports are expected to drop 21% and
imports contract 18% thus keeping the trade balance in positive territory at around US$15 billion.
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98
38
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Education
$80,708
3.2%
$202.2
1.0%
4.6%
-8.6%
14.9%
7.3%
$84.74
Mining
$69,543
2.7%
$14.6
0.1%
22.0%
-19.4%
6.8%
1.2%
$0.90
$1,421
0.1%
$0.0
0.0%
-8.8%
16.4%
8.8%
$0.01
$62,590
2.5%
$2.3
0.0%
4.1%
10.0%
-48.5%
25.3%
-5.4%
-$0.55
$6,474
0.3%
$47.3
0.2%
10.5%
-22.1%
6.8%
-0.9%
-$2.04
$68,168
2.7%
$202.8
1.0%
11.1%
-21.7%
5.2%
-0.6%
-$5.62
$22,648
0.9%
$165.4
0.8%
9.4%
-20.6%
5.0%
-0.7%
-$5.93
$6,985
0.3%
$17.3
0.1%
9.4%
-32.0%
-0.6%
-8.6%
-$6.28
$3,462
0.1%
$25.9
0.1%
8.6%
-41.3%
4.4%
-7.7%
-$8.54
Apparel
$12,539
0.5%
$52.0
0.3%
9.8%
-22.4%
3.1%
-4.1%
-$9.73
$12,207
0.5%
$50.6
0.3%
11.9%
-24.1%
2.4%
-4.4%
-$10.18
$8,212
0.3%
$103.6
0.5%
8.7%
-29.3%
5.7%
-66.3%
-$16.03
$42,082
1.7%
$222.6
1.1%
3.9%
-21.7%
5.7%
-1.5%
-$16.60
Real Estate
$99,482
3.9%
$818.5
4.0%
2.4%
-18.9%
5.6%
-0.4%
-$17.62
Retail Trade
$89,767
3.5%
$158.2
0.8%
4.0%
-20.6%
4.1%
-2.5%
-$18.83
$29,488
1.2%
$487.7
2.4%
9.3%
-24.8%
6.6%
-0.8%
-$18.88
$17,387
0.7%
$107.8
0.5%
-3.6%
-22.0%
2.2%
-4.1%
-$20.16
Transportation Equipment
$22,775
0.9%
$201.1
1.0%
11.6%
-24.1%
5.5%
-2.3%
-$21.96
Textiles
$15,912
0.6%
$187.5
0.9%
5.9%
-25.8%
2.7%
-3.6%
-$31.69
Other Manufacturing
$15,012
0.6%
$116.6
0.6%
3.6%
-31.8%
1.5%
-6.6%
-$33.67
$2,547,658
100%
$20,230
100%
4.0%
-24.4%
5.0%
-2.5%
-$2,439.69
Total
39
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
-3.0%
-2.3%
-0.7%
-1.9%
-1.1%
-2.6%
-3.4%
-0.4%
-1.2%
-3.8%
-4.4%
-1.8%
-0.8%
$379.9
$357.8
$222.6
$202.8
$202.2
$201.1
$187.5
$165.4
$158.2
$107.8
$52.0
$50.6
$47.3
$14.6
$0.0
-3.6%
-3.3%
-1.5%
-0.6%
7.3%
-2.3%
-3.6%
-0.7%
-2.5%
-4.1%
-4.1%
-4.4%
-0.9%
1.2%
8.8%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$719.5
$535.2
$516.8
-4.7%
-5.0%
-4.7%
Mature
Mature
Mature
$285.6
$185.4
$165.8
$163.1
$153.5
$145.9
$116.6
$103.6
$25.9
$17.3
$2.3
-5.5%
-5.4%
-5.6%
-5.0%
-8.7%
-6.2%
-6.6%
-66.3%
-7.7%
-8.6%
-5.4%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$20,230.0
-2.5%
Star
Industry
Food Processing and Services
Utilities
Government
Transportation Services
Communications Services
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
Petroleum Refining
Real Estate
Social & Personal Services
Construction
Banking & Finance
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
Paper & Paper Products
Total
40
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Canada
Economic Outlook
Growth is falling sharply and with poor outlook for the second quarter, IHS Global Insight forecasts a 2.3%
contraction in 2009.
Inflation has been abating in Canada over the past few months because of the weakening economy but is
expected to rebound closer to the Bank of Canada's 2% target in 2010. We expect this downward pressure on
prices to persist throughout the year, as the economy contracts through mid-year and excess supply increases as
the output gap widens.
The Canadian dollar has steadily drifted up with commodity prices remaining a key factor. The Canadian dollar's
current slow advance is due in large part to the climb in the price of oil, as well as the recent increase in natural
gas prices. As oil prices recover from their current lows, the dollar is likely to appreciate.
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98
41
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Real Estate
$179,948
6.7%
$1,608.9
8.1%
6.7%
-12.1%
16.2%
5.9%
Government
$198,435
7.4%
$1,613.3
8.1%
5.3%
-9.6%
16.6%
5.5%
$498.66
$76,484
2.9%
$1,137.7
5.7%
7.2%
-13.4%
16.0%
5.3%
$336.87
Utilities
$45,086
1.7%
$1,378.5
6.9%
4.7%
-18.2%
14.5%
-39.6%
$227.34
$84,364
3.2%
$1,489.1
7.5%
3.0%
-13.5%
13.7%
2.7%
$210.42
Education
$86,976
3.3%
$236.8
1.2%
9.9%
-2.7%
24.9%
13.1%
$200.87
Communications Services
$58,271
2.2%
$689.9
3.5%
6.5%
-12.5%
14.3%
4.6%
$174.63
Transportation Services
$105,851
4.0%
$949.7
4.8%
5.7%
-20.1%
14.2%
-43.9%
$159.33
Construction
$222,373
8.3%
$1,158.4
5.8%
9.1%
-18.8%
13.4%
2.6%
$157.30
$26,302
1.0%
$558.0
2.8%
7.6%
-23.5%
16.1%
3.8%
$112.85
$538.37
Transportation Equipment
$26,387
1.0%
$253.2
1.3%
4.8%
-7.5%
20.0%
-55.1%
$111.02
$63,045
2.4%
$426.2
2.1%
5.2%
-11.1%
12.6%
3.3%
$76.19
$88,995
3.3%
$987.3
5.0%
5.4%
-15.8%
11.5%
1.5%
$75.32
$62,729
2.3%
$360.6
1.8%
4.5%
-16.4%
14.0%
3.5%
$68.17
Petroleum Refining
$86,872
3.2%
$665.8
3.3%
19.6%
-56.8%
38.0%
1.8%
$63.06
$15,283
0.6%
$549.2
2.8%
6.6%
-16.7%
12.1%
1.8%
$50.62
$123,310
4.6%
$1,097.9
5.5%
6.2%
-18.0%
10.5%
-43.6%
$38.31
$29,173
1.1%
$524.3
2.6%
3.8%
-26.7%
14.5%
1.4%
$37.63
$191,802
7.2%
$1,125.5
5.7%
6.5%
-20.7%
12.0%
0.6%
$36.22
$35,806
1.3%
$115.8
0.6%
9.3%
-14.5%
15.0%
5.5%
$35.60
$2,675,671
100%
$19,909
100%
5.9%
-18.3%
14.5%
3.1%
$3,272.33
Wholesale Trade
Paper & Paper Products
Banking & Finance
Industrial Machinery & Equipment
Total
42
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
43
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$1,613.3
$1,608.9
$1,489.1
$1,158.4
$1,137.7
$1,125.5
$987.3
$689.9
$665.8
$558.0
$549.2
$524.3
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
5.5%
5.9%
2.7%
2.6%
5.3%
0.6%
1.5%
4.6%
1.8%
3.8%
1.8%
1.4%
$426.2
$396.3
$360.6
$334.2
$317.6
$272.8
$253.9
$236.8
$189.8
$158.0
$148.2
$133.7
$125.5
$115.8
$110.7
$82.6
$53.3
$52.9
$16.0
$8.0
$6.2
$5.5
$4.3
$2.0
$0.0
3.3%
1.0%
3.5%
-0.4%
0.0%
-0.8%
1.8%
13.1%
1.1%
-2.6%
1.9%
-0.5%
-1.5%
5.5%
0.9%
3.7%
1.0%
5.9%
0.8%
-2.2%
4.4%
-1.9%
0.8%
-1.6%
15.1%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$1,378.5
$1,097.9
$949.7
-39.6%
-43.6%
-43.9%
Mature
Mature
Mature
$311.5
$253.2
-56.4%
-55.1%
Low Priority
Low Priority
$19,908.9
3.1%
Star
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
China
Economic Outlook
The latest data suggest the downturn may be bottoming, but it is still premature to conclude that recovery will be
sharp. For China's economy to achieve a sustainable and robust recovery, strong consumer demand or export
demand is needed.
Risks in the medium-term outlook cannot be overlooked. In fact, China's tax revenue has deteriorated from a
26.1% year-on-year (y/y) growth in the first three quarters of 2008 to an 11.1% contraction in the first four months
of 2009. Additionally, massive loan growth raises the risk of bad loans surfacing down the road.
The main problem for China's economy is the free-falling export demand. Exports account for 36% of Chinese
GDP making China more exposed to external-demand shocks. After export decline eased to 17.1% in March,
from a 21.1% contraction in the first two months of the year, exports fell 22.6% and 26.4% in April and May,
respectively.
44
99
00
01 02
03
04
05 06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Utilities
$495,161
4.3%
$15,297.8
16.3%
18.8%
-5.8%
5.0%
6.3%
$5,433.63
$513,064
4.5%
$9,151.2
9.8%
12.7%
-4.0%
5.9%
6.6%
$3,457.71
Government
$475,683
4.2%
$3,907.8
4.2%
11.7%
7.0%
10.7%
10.3%
$2,479.43
Real Estate
$408,707
3.6%
$3,692.4
3.9%
13.0%
-1.3%
8.1%
10.0%
$2,267.41
Construction
$824,684
7.2%
$4,340.9
4.6%
16.2%
-0.5%
7.8%
8.4%
$2,160.22
Transportation Services
$450,049
4.0%
$3,955.1
4.2%
11.0%
-7.3%
7.1%
7.8%
$1,814.22
$147,683
1.3%
$3,165.7
3.4%
19.1%
-6.3%
6.2%
8.1%
$1,496.61
$335,269
2.9%
$2,688.7
2.9%
21.7%
-2.1%
5.4%
7.6%
$1,183.04
Textiles
$249,895
2.2%
$3,232.9
3.4%
18.9%
-10.5%
5.4%
6.2%
$1,142.11
Wholesale Trade
$449,244
3.9%
$4,041.9
4.3%
7.9%
-4.0%
2.0%
4.9%
$1,094.03
Communications Services
$184,973
1.6%
$2,213.1
2.4%
20.3%
-1.4%
6.8%
8.3%
$1,088.54
$102,741
0.9%
$1,865.9
2.0%
19.5%
-4.2%
8.0%
9.3%
$1,048.72
$235,180
2.1%
$4,153.3
4.4%
14.5%
-2.3%
2.4%
4.4%
$1,003.33
Transportation Equipment
$200,298
1.8%
$1,942.3
2.1%
13.0%
-2.4%
7.8%
8.7%
$1,000.36
Education
$261,329
2.3%
$719.0
0.8%
12.8%
9.2%
15.5%
15.9%
$786.28
$228,722
2.0%
$2,564.0
2.7%
15.5%
-4.8%
3.6%
5.0%
$715.64
Communication Equipment
$212,760
1.9%
$1,706.2
1.8%
15.0%
-7.6%
3.4%
7.2%
$714.31
$862,125
7.6%
$5,888.7
6.3%
8.2%
-3.8%
-0.1%
2.0%
$607.86
$612,812
5.4%
$1,947.3
2.1%
18.1%
-13.8%
6.6%
5.3%
$570.04
$35,890
0.3%
$1,303.2
1.4%
17.6%
-1.7%
5.0%
6.2%
$458.47
$11,393,651
100%
$93,846
100%
14.6%
-6.3%
5.8%
6.5%
$34,856.60
45
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
8.4%
7.8%
10.3%
10.0%
8.1%
7.6%
Communications Services
Transportation Equipment
Paper & Paper Products
Communication Equipment
Industrial Machinery & Equipment
Education
Wood & Wood Products
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments
Social & Personal Services
Private Households Employees
$2,213.1
$1,942.3
$1,865.9
$1,706.2
$856.2
$719.0
$561.6
$437.2
$112.2
$0.0
8.3%
8.7%
9.3%
7.2%
8.2%
15.9%
7.0%
6.7%
7.7%
18.8%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Utilities
Food Processing and Services
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
Wholesale Trade
Textiles
Petroleum Refining
Professional & Business Services
$15,297.8
$9,151.2
$5,888.7
$4,153.3
$4,041.9
$3,232.9
$2,908.4
$2,564.0
6.3%
6.6%
2.0%
4.4%
4.9%
6.2%
2.9%
5.0%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$2,210.9
$1,947.3
$1,463.9
$1,303.2
$1,025.4
$1,011.2
$995.8
$972.1
$825.4
$551.0
$504.6
$392.4
$383.0
$382.5
$236.3
$210.1
$24.1
$4.9
3.8%
5.3%
4.7%
6.2%
6.6%
3.9%
4.0%
5.3%
5.5%
4.2%
6.5%
6.2%
6.5%
6.1%
2.2%
6.6%
5.1%
3.4%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Total
$93,846.5
6.5%
Mature
Industry
Construction
Transportation Services
Government
Real Estate
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus
46
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
France
Economic Outlook
GDP continued to contract sharply during the first quarter of 2008, and the outlook for the coming months is still
negative. IHS Global Insight currently believes that output is unlikely to grow until at least the first quarter of 2010.
Unemployment edged upward during the fourth quarter of 2008 and is likely to increase even more in the coming
quarters, as weaker output growth and historically low business confidence take their toll on firms' employment
decisions. The latest short-tem data show sharp destruction of jobs in the market sectors, and the situation is
likely to get worse before it gets better.
France's residential house prices are expected to continue to fall at an average of 10% in 2009. The ongoing
credit squeeze is weighing on financial institutions' appetites for house loans. With significantly tightened lending
criteria and rising unemployment it is likely that prices will slow even further.
47
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Real Estate
$453,513
8.7%
$3,302.4
9.2%
7.2%
-13.8%
4.3%
1.9%
Government
$268,535
5.2%
$1,778.1
4.9%
2.7%
-8.1%
6.5%
2.5%
$232.13
Education
$168,433
3.2%
$373.5
1.0%
7.6%
-4.3%
11.2%
7.8%
$169.09
Transportation Equipment
$95,011
1.8%
$742.6
2.1%
5.0%
-8.1%
6.9%
-52.4%
$138.48
$197,205
3.8%
$2,389.1
6.6%
5.7%
-16.2%
3.5%
0.7%
$81.85
$51,665
1.0%
$892.6
2.5%
5.8%
-17.4%
3.4%
1.3%
$57.96
$98,469
1.9%
$259.3
0.7%
7.7%
-12.7%
3.0%
2.1%
$28.15
$31,250
0.6%
$457.4
1.3%
5.2%
-17.5%
3.6%
1.0%
$23.96
$27,639
0.5%
$178.7
0.5%
3.9%
-12.2%
5.0%
2.3%
$21.60
Communications Services
$101,918
2.0%
$982.8
2.7%
6.6%
-13.9%
2.0%
0.0%
$2.38
$153,017
3.0%
$391.9
1.1%
4.9%
-17.6%
2.8%
0.1%
$1.43
$8,542
0.2%
$0.1
0.0%
9.6%
-4.9%
13.4%
10.3%
$0.06
48
$318.81
$12,041
0.2%
$1.7
0.0%
12.0%
-17.9%
2.0%
0.4%
$0.04
$4,407
0.1%
$16.2
0.0%
6.7%
-9.3%
0.0%
-0.7%
-$0.57
$17,325
0.3%
$193.5
0.5%
-18.7%
3.0%
-64.9%
-$0.93
-$1.19
$2,627
0.1%
$5.8
0.0%
5.4%
12.7%
-22.2%
-1.5%
-4.5%
$298,419
5.8%
$9.5
0.0%
-6.6%
-44.8%
24.6%
-3.1%
-$1.37
$12,716
0.2%
$46.7
0.1%
5.8%
-10.5%
0.8%
-0.9%
-$2.02
$121,071
2.3%
$566.9
1.6%
3.5%
-16.6%
2.4%
-0.1%
-$3.02
$40,654
0.8%
$262.8
0.7%
5.3%
-18.3%
0.7%
-0.5%
-$6.72
$5,185,208
100%
$36,021
100%
4.6%
-17.1%
2.3%
-0.6%
-$1,075.29
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
49
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$4,046.8
$3,302.4
$2,746.8
$2,389.1
$1,778.1
$1,555.9
$1,302.3
$1,173.8
$982.8
$892.6
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
-2.6%
1.9%
-0.4%
0.7%
2.5%
-1.5%
-4.2%
-2.4%
0.0%
1.3%
$723.9
$705.8
$643.6
$584.1
$577.5
$566.9
$505.3
$457.4
$391.9
$373.5
$361.0
$343.1
$262.8
$259.3
$178.7
$174.9
$170.3
$160.8
$156.6
$128.9
$70.5
$46.7
$16.2
$9.5
$5.8
$1.7
$0.1
-1.8%
-3.7%
-1.7%
-3.7%
-2.7%
-0.1%
-3.0%
1.0%
0.1%
7.8%
-1.3%
-3.2%
-0.5%
2.1%
2.3%
-3.4%
-5.1%
-1.2%
-1.6%
-3.8%
-3.2%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-3.1%
-4.5%
0.4%
10.3%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$3,071.0
$2,085.6
$1,880.8
-39.1%
-43.9%
-46.4%
Mature
Mature
Mature
$742.6
$193.5
-52.4%
-64.9%
Low Priority
Low Priority
$36,020.8
-0.6%
Star
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Germany
Economic Outlook
The German economy's sharp drop in demand in late 2008 and early 2009 has only been partly reflected in
deteriorating labor-market conditions. Our June forecast therefore predicts GDP growth to plunge from 1.0%
(1.3% unadjusted) in 2008 to -6.0% (-6.1%) in 2009. Prospects for 2010 however, depend on whether global
demand recovers sufficiently in mid-2009 to prevent redundancies from accelerating sharply during the second
half of 2009.
The inflation outlook will remain benign in the foreseeable future due to the unwinding of commodity prices in May
2009. Average inflation will fall from 2.6% in 2008 to 0.3% in 2009, and only rebound mildly to 1.0% in 2010.
Monetary and fiscal policies will increasingly support the economy as 2009 proceeds. Two economic-stimulus
packages were launched in November 2008 and in January 2009 to combat the recession, together worth
between 1.5% and 2.0% of GDP respectively. Any further structural reforms apart from stricter financial market
regulation are now unlikely to be tackled ahead of 2011.
50
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Education
$185,748
2.8%
$326.5
0.9%
6.6%
-1.9%
11.0%
7.9%
$150.01
Government
$276,752
4.1%
$1,452.3
4.0%
1.0%
-8.3%
4.9%
1.4%
$101.05
Real Estate
$491,467
7.3%
$2,836.3
7.9%
3.5%
-14.2%
2.3%
0.4%
$55.66
$248,064
3.7%
$2,381.7
6.6%
2.5%
-14.4%
3.1%
0.3%
$36.61
$335,340
5.0%
$699.8
1.9%
9.1%
-15.2%
1.6%
0.6%
$21.98
$74,278
1.1%
$380.5
1.1%
9.4%
-14.4%
3.8%
0.8%
$16.42
$98,492
1.5%
$1,348.7
3.7%
6.1%
-19.3%
2.0%
0.2%
$13.20
Transportation Equipment
$57,959
0.9%
$359.0
1.0%
4.1%
-13.2%
4.5%
0.7%
$12.89
$57,721
0.9%
$669.6
1.9%
7.1%
-18.5%
2.4%
0.2%
$7.25
Mining
$21,144
0.3%
$1.4
0.0%
10.8%
-15.4%
3.3%
1.5%
$0.11
$10,845
0.2%
$0.1
0.0%
6.4%
-1.8%
13.0%
10.0%
$0.06
$4,581
0.1%
$13.3
0.0%
7.1%
-12.5%
-0.3%
-2.0%
-$1.28
$343,211
5.1%
$8.7
0.0%
-8.5%
-44.1%
22.8%
-3.8%
-$1.54
Apparel
$10,326
0.2%
$30.0
0.1%
3.5%
-15.6%
-0.5%
-3.1%
-$4.39
$27,835
0.4%
$48.3
0.1%
5.5%
-22.1%
-0.2%
-3.8%
-$8.41
$8,439
0.1%
$44.3
0.1%
11.2%
-30.7%
1.0%
-4.8%
-$9.69
Recycling
Wood & Wood Products
$32,566
0.5%
$288.2
0.8%
3.6%
-19.8%
2.0%
-1.3%
-$18.87
$95,491
1.4%
$354.4
1.0%
0.1%
-16.8%
1.1%
-1.3%
-$23.20
Textiles
$20,035
0.3%
$165.6
0.5%
2.3%
-21.8%
0.0%
-3.0%
-$23.47
$27,843
0.4%
$199.4
0.6%
1.6%
-15.2%
-0.6%
-3.5%
-$32.22
$6,732,994
100%
$36,098
100%
3.3%
-18.0%
1.0%
-1.7%
-$2,993.99
Total
51
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
52
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$2,836.3
$2,675.8
$2,381.7
$1,452.3
$1,348.7
$1,021.9
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
0.4%
-1.2%
0.3%
1.4%
0.2%
-0.9%
$699.8
$669.6
$380.5
$359.0
$354.4
$326.5
$288.2
$1.4
$0.1
0.6%
0.2%
0.8%
0.7%
-1.3%
7.9%
-1.3%
1.5%
10.0%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$3,354.0
$3,176.4
$2,309.5
$1,662.7
$1,447.6
$1,274.3
$1,091.8
$1,044.8
-3.8%
-1.8%
-1.8%
-3.8%
-3.3%
-5.1%
-4.8%
-2.4%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$830.4
$710.7
$637.2
$513.1
$476.4
$447.1
$353.7
$353.0
$329.0
$265.9
$262.1
$252.2
$199.4
$165.6
$48.3
$44.3
$30.0
$13.3
$8.7
-1.8%
-5.1%
-3.4%
-2.3%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-2.4%
-2.1%
-3.8%
-3.5%
-4.6%
-5.4%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-3.8%
-4.8%
-3.1%
-2.0%
-3.8%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$36,097.8
-1.7%
Star
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
India
Economic Outlook
Slightly weaker growth will characterize the Indian economy in moderation during the near term due to the global
financial crisis. Growth slowed substantially to 6.1% in fiscal 2008 and will slow further to 5.6% in fiscal 2009, well
below trend growth.
Prudent monetary policy has ensured macroeconomic stability with a relatively competitive exchange rate,
building reserves, and eased monetary policy to support domestic growth.
India's external finances have improved markedly in recent years with the IT industry and related services
expanding rapidly. Bolstered by service exports and remittances, the current account will continue to incur only
mild deficits, at less than 2.0% of GDP, in the medium term.
53
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Construction
$285,080
13.3%
$1,255.9
9.0%
15.5%
-8.4%
7.1%
6.8%
$490.96
Transportation Services
$158,131
7.3%
$1,322.7
9.5%
9.8%
-12.4%
6.3%
5.8%
$429.82
Government
$114,705
5.3%
$788.7
5.7%
7.7%
-1.8%
9.6%
8.5%
$396.68
Utilities
$43,650
2.0%
$1,128.7
8.1%
2.0%
-13.4%
6.1%
5.3%
$329.80
Communications Services
$52,865
2.5%
$529.4
3.8%
12.0%
-2.6%
11.6%
9.9%
$318.86
$72,746
3.4%
$1,086.0
7.8%
4.2%
-12.1%
5.7%
4.6%
$271.05
Real Estate
$53,874
2.5%
$407.4
2.9%
13.6%
-6.5%
8.6%
8.4%
$202.41
Wholesale Trade
$130,096
6.0%
$979.6
7.0%
10.2%
-10.1%
3.8%
3.6%
$191.74
$255,276
11.9%
$1,459.4
10.5%
5.6%
-8.3%
2.1%
2.2%
$167.13
$19,828
0.9%
$355.7
2.6%
12.5%
-13.6%
7.2%
6.4%
$129.28
$24,746
1.2%
$311.3
2.2%
8.0%
-9.3%
8.1%
7.2%
$128.89
Education
$42,851
2.0%
$98.7
0.7%
11.6%
1.3%
15.2%
14.2%
$92.88
Petroleum Refining
$114,557
5.3%
$742.5
5.3%
23.9%
-56.1%
26.2%
2.1%
$82.90
$69,734
3.2%
$346.1
2.5%
8.4%
-12.9%
5.4%
4.1%
$76.74
$41,115
1.9%
$385.7
2.8%
9.8%
-9.9%
3.5%
3.7%
$76.13
Textiles
$25,932
1.2%
$280.8
2.0%
7.9%
-16.9%
5.3%
4.4%
$67.90
$6,680
0.3%
$203.0
1.5%
12.2%
-9.6%
5.4%
5.7%
$64.37
$9,256
0.4%
$140.7
1.0%
12.5%
-13.4%
8.1%
7.0%
$56.99
$52.91
$17,852
0.8%
$119.8
0.9%
13.9%
-9.0%
7.2%
7.6%
$95,802
4.5%
$254.8
1.8%
10.3%
-21.6%
6.7%
3.8%
$52.09
$2,151,475
100%
$13,942
100%
8.8%
-13.1%
6.6%
5.3%
$4,071.63
Total
54
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
55
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$1,322.7
$1,255.9
$1,128.7
$1,086.0
$979.6
$788.7
$529.4
$407.4
$385.7
$355.7
$346.1
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
5.8%
6.8%
5.3%
4.6%
3.6%
8.5%
9.9%
8.4%
3.7%
6.4%
4.1%
$311.3
$280.8
$254.8
$203.0
$185.1
$170.3
$140.7
$129.2
$119.8
$108.5
$98.7
$97.2
$79.7
$56.0
$31.4
$30.5
$23.8
$12.5
$2.3
$0.0
7.2%
4.4%
3.8%
5.7%
4.2%
4.2%
7.0%
6.6%
7.6%
4.8%
14.2%
3.6%
9.6%
6.3%
5.4%
3.7%
9.2%
5.4%
6.0%
16.6%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$1,459.4
$742.5
2.2%
2.1%
Mature
Mature
$277.8
$183.4
$152.1
$105.8
$57.1
$23.4
$16.1
$1.8
$1.0
2.6%
3.5%
2.6%
1.0%
3.5%
1.2%
-72.8%
1.7%
2.1%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$13,941.7
5.3%
Star
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Indonesia
Economic Outlook
Indonesia's economy grew 6.1% in 2008 thanks to good performance through the third quarter. The outlook for
2009, on the other hand, is much worse. We expect scaled-back forecast for the next two years due to capital
flight, erosion of net exports due to falling external demand, and delayed implementation of investment plans.
By summer 2009, we expect to see the policy rate go decrease to about 6.75% due to the central bank's cutting of
rates. With the economy slowing and inflation subsiding, we expect to see more of these rate cuts in the future.
A combination of weaker external demand and sharply lower commodity prices will lower export earnings by over
25% in 2009. The only upside is that commodity imports will also benefit from the price correction. Capital flows
are also expected to enter a more uncertain period as portfolio and direct investments slow.
56
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
$158,169
18.1%
$1,415.1
16.5%
14.3%
-11.3%
7.1%
5.1%
Communications Services
$36,074
4.1%
$565.3
6.6%
19.3%
-5.8%
12.9%
10.2%
$351.44
$52,612
6.0%
$1,229.1
14.4%
15.4%
-17.2%
8.0%
4.6%
$311.69
Government
$46,241
5.3%
$497.6
5.8%
14.5%
-7.1%
12.6%
8.7%
$256.65
Utilities
$17,091
2.0%
$691.6
8.1%
13.3%
-15.0%
8.6%
-35.8%
$239.40
$399.12
$9,935
1.1%
$278.9
3.3%
16.0%
-15.6%
12.0%
8.8%
$146.59
Construction
$70,571
8.1%
$486.5
5.7%
16.5%
-17.4%
7.1%
4.8%
$129.79
Wholesale Trade
$47,579
5.4%
$560.7
6.6%
15.4%
-14.4%
5.9%
-39.9%
$109.64
$7,490
0.9%
$178.2
2.1%
17.2%
-18.7%
13.4%
9.1%
$96.90
Transportation Services
$30,300
3.5%
$321.8
3.8%
16.7%
-19.7%
8.0%
-45.4%
$92.03
Real Estate
$14,127
1.6%
$167.2
2.0%
18.3%
-12.9%
10.4%
8.4%
$83.54
$9,360
1.1%
$169.9
2.0%
12.8%
-20.1%
9.9%
-51.4%
$61.60
$61.42
$22,472
2.6%
$171.0
2.0%
14.3%
-15.2%
9.3%
6.3%
Textiles
$12,108
1.4%
$205.2
2.4%
13.3%
-17.8%
7.8%
5.3%
$60.86
$7,258
0.8%
$142.9
1.7%
13.9%
-14.8%
10.4%
7.2%
$59.20
Transportation Equipment
$18,276
2.1%
$232.1
2.7%
29.7%
-18.9%
6.5%
-49.3%
$55.35
$50.96
Education
$12,858
1.5%
$46.3
0.5%
18.0%
-1.4%
20.5%
16.0%
$10,852
1.2%
$159.3
1.9%
14.5%
-13.1%
7.0%
4.7%
$41.31
$23,052
2.6%
$95.9
1.1%
13.5%
-23.2%
10.4%
5.7%
$30.78
$7,415
0.8%
$171.5
2.0%
14.0%
-16.9%
4.8%
3.2%
$29.72
$873,771
100%
$8,551
100%
15.2%
-14.6%
8.7%
5.9%
$2,850.78
57
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
5.1%
4.6%
10.2%
8.7%
4.8%
8.8%
5.3%
$178.2
$171.5
$171.0
$167.2
$159.3
$142.9
$101.1
$95.9
$95.8
$84.5
$64.1
$63.0
$51.1
$46.4
$46.3
$43.1
$34.3
$31.1
$29.0
$28.1
$27.4
$25.1
$17.1
$13.0
$7.7
$1.4
$0.9
$0.2
$0.1
$0.0
9.1%
3.2%
6.3%
8.4%
4.7%
7.2%
3.6%
5.7%
4.8%
4.9%
3.1%
3.8%
3.4%
4.2%
16.0%
6.5%
3.7%
6.9%
2.4%
2.4%
3.6%
6.8%
9.9%
1.8%
5.3%
7.9%
3.1%
5.3%
3.3%
17.5%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Transportation Services
Transportation Equipment
$691.6
$560.7
$321.8
$232.1
-35.8%
-39.9%
-45.4%
-49.3%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$169.9
-51.4%
Low Priority
$8,550.7
5.9%
Star
Industry
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
Food Processing and Services
Communications Services
Government
Construction
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
Textiles
Total
58
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Italy
Economic Outlook
Italy has grown rapidly since the recession of 2001. It's domestic and export sectors have both performed well
during this period resulting in robust increases in business travel spending. Prospects for the near-term are
unfortunately muted by expectations for a slower domestic recovery and the need for a sustainable economic
recovery among its key trading partners.
The economy started to lose significant momentum from the later stages of 2007 and is set to remain very weak
during 2009 and early 2010. The main obstacle to stronger long-term growth will be modest export performance,
as Italian exports are expected to underperform the growth in the trade-weighted index of world demand for Italian
products.
Total employment is set to fall after a stronger-than-expected performance in recent years. Uncertain business
climate and uneven industrial production will continue to strangle industrial employment, as companies continue
to tightly control their workforces amid the uncertain economic picture.
Fiscal policy will be modest in the next few years as the government strives to keep a lid on the country's public
finances. Italy will remain under pressure to restrain public spending to reduce the general government budget
deficit, which is expected to widen to 4.1% of GDP in 2009 and 4.5% of GDP in 2010.
59
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Real Estate
$286,526
6.2%
$3,683.5
6.5%
7.7%
-13.9%
4.5%
1.9%
$358.36
Education
$123,483
2.7%
$483.4
0.8%
7.4%
-3.1%
11.0%
8.2%
$233.92
Government
$186,357
4.0%
$2,178.5
3.8%
4.0%
-8.6%
5.0%
1.9%
$209.94
$63,291
1.4%
$1,930.5
3.4%
5.9%
-17.3%
2.9%
1.1%
$110.78
$180,134
3.9%
$837.4
1.5%
8.5%
-13.8%
1.7%
1.6%
$68.13
$122,457
2.7%
$2,619.0
4.6%
3.8%
-16.2%
2.9%
0.4%
$55.90
$31,168
0.7%
$805.4
1.4%
5.9%
-18.4%
4.1%
1.3%
$52.45
$26,917
0.6%
$307.2
0.5%
8.4%
-13.7%
3.5%
1.5%
$23.25
Apparel
$51,096
1.1%
$331.1
0.6%
10.9%
-8.3%
2.8%
0.6%
$10.76
Transportation Equipment
$33,557
0.7%
$463.0
0.8%
2.3%
-15.2%
3.7%
0.1%
$3.48
$21,040
0.5%
$0.4
0.0%
8.9%
-5.2%
13.4%
9.9%
$0.24
Mining
$14,709
0.3%
$3.3
0.0%
13.3%
-19.0%
2.6%
0.5%
$0.09
$189,733
4.1%
$10.7
0.0%
-6.3%
-45.0%
21.5%
-4.1%
-$2.01
$8,386
0.2%
$32.4
0.1%
5.1%
-22.7%
-4.8%
-6.2%
-$8.86
$5,538
0.1%
$64.7
0.1%
1.3%
-27.1%
2.6%
-3.4%
-$10.18
$37,505
0.8%
$243.1
0.4%
8.6%
-12.8%
0.4%
-1.1%
-$12.92
Communications Services
$85,764
1.9%
$1,460.1
2.6%
6.1%
-14.4%
1.6%
-0.2%
-$15.97
$23,770
0.5%
$468.7
0.8%
3.7%
-21.6%
2.5%
-0.9%
-$21.79
Motor Vehicles
$59,760
1.3%
$147.6
0.3%
4.9%
-29.6%
0.9%
-3.5%
-$23.91
$54,155
1.2%
$618.0
1.1%
6.7%
-17.2%
-0.1%
-1.0%
-$28.92
$4,601,475
100%
$56,937
100%
4.9%
-18.0%
1.3%
-1.2%
-$3,235.73
Total
60
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
-0.7%
-1.1%
-1.0%
1.9%
0.4%
1.9%
1.1%
-0.2%
-1.0%
$837.4
$805.4
$618.0
$483.4
$468.7
$463.0
$331.1
$307.2
$243.1
$3.3
$0.4
1.6%
1.3%
-1.0%
8.2%
-0.9%
0.1%
0.6%
1.5%
-1.1%
0.5%
9.9%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$4,407.2
$3,379.5
$2,248.4
$2,098.7
$2,025.6
$1,690.2
$1,608.8
-3.0%
-4.1%
-1.8%
-3.6%
-2.8%
-3.9%
-4.9%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Petroleum Refining
Textiles
Retail Trade
Other Manufacturing
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
Chemicals & Chemical Products
Computer Service & Related Activities
Printing & Publishing
Research & Development Services
Basic Metals Manufacturing
Communication Equipment
Motor Vehicles
Recycling
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery
Health & Social Work
$1,080.6
$963.6
$807.0
$790.7
$749.5
$557.3
$542.1
$538.7
$328.1
$279.3
$174.3
$147.6
$64.7
$32.4
$10.7
-2.1%
-1.2%
-2.3%
-2.7%
-2.2%
-1.2%
-3.1%
-4.1%
-3.4%
-2.6%
-3.9%
-3.5%
-3.4%
-6.2%
-4.1%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Total
$56,936.5
-1.2%
Mature
Industry
Utilities
Transportation Services
Food Processing and Services
Real Estate
Social & Personal Services
Government
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
Communications Services
Hotels & Restaurants
Industrial Machinery & Equipment
Paper & Paper Products
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus
Education
Wood & Wood Products
Transportation Equipment
Apparel
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments
Leather & Leather Products
Mining
Private Households Employees
61
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Japan
Economic Outlook
Japan's GDP fell precipitously in the fourth quarter of 2008 largely due to plunging overseas demand. There is no
reason for optimism in the near term: the slump in Europe and the United States will limit export demand, while
low confidence causes households to save rather than spend.
The Japanese and global economies should hit bottom in mid-to-late 2009. Only in 2010, as the world economy
strengthens, will Japan rebound on the back of surging exports.
Continued yen strength is the least of Japan's problems. In theory, the strong yen should hurt Japan's exports.
But the main problem for exports is the decline in overseas demand. When the developed economies recover in
2009-10, Japan's exports will rebound quickly.
62
99
00
01 02
03
04
05 06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
$1,534,570
14.7%
$18,119.1
24.4%
15.1%
3.5%
7.2%
4.9%
$4,861.70
Real Estate
$660,786
6.3%
$4,689.7
6.3%
1.9%
6.9%
7.5%
6.2%
$1,646.18
Utilities
$306,128
2.9%
$7,429.7
10.0%
-0.2%
-2.1%
5.9%
-34.6%
$1,449.31
Government
$406,657
3.9%
$2,624.4
3.5%
-0.3%
8.2%
7.3%
5.4%
$794.69
$321,201
3.1%
$4,500.6
6.1%
-1.9%
2.9%
6.0%
2.6%
$625.80
Wholesale Trade
$637,065
6.1%
$4,502.6
6.1%
-0.6%
-0.3%
3.1%
-41.7%
$517.99
Education
$216,861
2.1%
$468.7
0.6%
3.3%
26.8%
17.7%
15.8%
$508.14
Transportation Services
$401,665
3.8%
$2,762.3
3.7%
-0.7%
-5.5%
5.4%
-46.7%
$434.19
$347.55
Communications Services
$184,285
1.8%
$1,732.1
2.3%
1.7%
3.4%
5.2%
3.7%
$330,637
3.2%
$1,508.9
2.0%
-0.7%
1.1%
6.8%
3.9%
$315.99
Construction
$587,953
5.6%
$2,431.2
3.3%
-3.2%
-3.7%
5.1%
2.0%
$257.25
$139,234
1.3%
$2,344.6
3.2%
3.2%
-10.5%
6.4%
2.1%
$255.55
Petroleum Refining
$272,330
2.6%
$1,656.8
2.2%
9.3%
-46.9%
27.2%
2.3%
$203.22
$314,078
3.0%
$806.0
1.1%
4.9%
-1.3%
6.0%
4.6%
$202.33
$355,393
3.4%
$3,129.6
4.2%
-1.5%
-0.5%
2.7%
1.0%
$157.89
$63,295
0.6%
$1,805.5
2.4%
-0.9%
-3.1%
4.7%
1.4%
$132.10
63
$400,258
3.8%
$608.6
0.8%
-2.8%
-1.2%
3.8%
2.6%
$82.58
$51,449
0.5%
$391.9
0.5%
0.5%
1.6%
7.8%
-63.6%
$80.75
$145,652
1.4%
$781.5
1.1%
0.5%
5.6%
3.2%
1.9%
$76.65
$106,217
1.0%
$669.1
0.9%
0.8%
-5.7%
5.3%
2.0%
$69.10
$10,472,092
100%
$74,299
100%
2.0%
-1.8%
6.1%
3.3%
$12,989.32
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
4.9%
6.2%
2.6%
1.0%
5.4%
2.0%
2.1%
-0.2%
1.4%
Communications Services
Petroleum Refining
Hotels & Restaurants
Communication Equipment
Paper & Paper Products
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
Computer Service & Related Activities
Fabricated Metal Products
Industrial Machinery & Equipment
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
Chemicals & Chemical Products
Printing & Publishing
Basic Metals Manufacturing
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus
Motor Vehicles
Retail Trade
Education
Other Manufacturing
Research & Development Services
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments
Textiles
Recycling
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery
Apparel
Health & Social Work
Leather & Leather Products
Mining
Private Households Employees
$1,732.1
$1,656.8
$1,508.9
$1,183.6
$1,146.9
$984.4
$817.1
$816.0
$806.0
$781.5
$774.2
$707.0
$682.0
$669.1
$623.1
$608.6
$468.7
$320.7
$244.8
$239.2
$166.7
$145.7
$113.7
$75.4
$14.4
$12.9
$2.3
$0.2
3.7%
2.3%
3.9%
0.4%
0.2%
-1.3%
0.9%
-1.2%
4.6%
1.9%
0.7%
-1.1%
-1.2%
2.0%
0.3%
2.6%
15.8%
-1.2%
1.2%
5.1%
0.4%
-0.6%
-1.4%
1.2%
1.5%
0.1%
4.4%
12.5%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Transportation Services
$7,429.7
$4,502.6
$2,762.3
-34.6%
-41.7%
-46.7%
Mature
Mature
Mature
$391.9
$182.9
-63.6%
-70.0%
Low Priority
Low Priority
$74,299.2
3.3%
Star
Industry
Social & Personal Services
Real Estate
Food Processing and Services
Professional & Business Services
Government
Construction
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
Banking & Finance
Equipment Rental & Leasing
Transportation Equipment
Wood & Wood Products
Total
64
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Netherlands
Economic Outlook
IHS Global Insight now expects the Dutch economy to contract 3.2% in 2009. Tight credit-market conditions and
lower demand from abroad will limit overall growth in the near term. On the other hand, the economy will benefit
from falling interest rates across the Eurozone.
As of right now, the labor-market situation has not deteriorated and the unemployment rate still remains very low.
The turmoil in the global financial sector however, has hit consumer and business confidence and is set to
negatively affect the labor market, consumption, investment, and exports in 2009.
Fiscal position is expected to deteriorate in 2009, following marked improvements in the past three years. The
Dutch government has recently stated that it expects a budget deficit in excess of 3.0% of GDP in 2009. In
addition, the government debt will rise sharply as a result of the Dutch government's intervention to prop up the
banking sector.
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98
65
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Real Estate
$91,008
5.4%
$1,109.5
5.6%
6.3%
-14.5%
4.2%
1.6%
$90.66
Education
$45,880
2.7%
$170.3
0.9%
9.6%
-3.0%
11.1%
7.5%
$74.49
Government
$95,965
5.7%
$1,063.8
5.4%
5.0%
-8.8%
4.9%
1.3%
$70.37
$10,793
0.6%
$312.2
1.6%
6.3%
-15.3%
3.6%
1.4%
$22.33
$32,201
1.9%
$141.9
0.7%
9.5%
-9.9%
3.7%
2.8%
$20.99
$52,519
3.1%
$1,065.2
5.4%
5.3%
-16.5%
3.5%
0.2%
$12.55
$7,421
0.4%
$80.3
0.4%
8.6%
-12.2%
4.2%
1.4%
$5.85
Motor Vehicles
$13,852
0.8%
$32.4
0.2%
5.0%
-19.3%
2.9%
0.2%
$0.24
Communications Services
$38,166
2.3%
$616.2
3.1%
7.2%
-14.9%
2.4%
0.0%
$0.24
$3,307
0.2%
$0.1
0.0%
9.4%
-3.6%
13.8%
10.1%
$0.04
$43,135
2.6%
$0.7
0.0%
15.5%
-19.2%
3.1%
0.3%
$0.01
$489
0.0%
$3.0
0.0%
6.6%
-9.5%
0.5%
-1.0%
-$0.15
$1,155
0.1%
$7.1
0.0%
7.4%
-9.4%
0.9%
-1.1%
-$0.39
$28,154
1.7%
$220.7
1.1%
2.9%
-14.3%
2.6%
-0.1%
-$0.80
$8,978
0.5%
$220.0
1.1%
5.6%
-18.4%
3.1%
-0.1%
-$1.09
$93,203
5.5%
$5.0
0.0%
-5.2%
-45.7%
20.8%
-4.9%
-$1.11
$6,441
0.4%
$69.7
0.4%
5.6%
-14.0%
1.4%
-0.5%
-$1.73
Transportation Equipment
$9,094
0.5%
$119.0
0.6%
0.5%
-13.5%
3.9%
-0.3%
-$2.01
Recycling
$1,839
0.1%
$20.4
0.1%
8.7%
-26.1%
3.6%
-2.2%
-$2.13
66
$2,584
0.2%
$9.5
0.0%
-1.9%
-19.3%
-3.5%
-5.4%
-$2.31
$1,687,467
100%
$19,771
100%
5.0%
-17.4%
2.3%
-1.1%
-$1,031.17
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
67
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$2,320.4
$1,136.3
$1,109.5
$1,065.2
$1,063.8
$654.2
$616.2
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
-0.2%
-0.9%
1.6%
0.2%
1.3%
-1.0%
0.0%
$312.2
$220.7
$220.0
$170.3
$141.9
$119.0
$80.3
$69.7
$32.4
$3.0
$0.7
$0.1
1.4%
-0.1%
-0.1%
7.5%
2.8%
-0.3%
1.4%
-0.5%
0.2%
-1.0%
0.3%
10.1%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$2,114.6
$2,052.6
$1,310.5
$840.7
$739.1
$679.5
-2.7%
-1.4%
-2.7%
-1.4%
-3.6%
-2.4%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$395.8
$379.5
$337.2
$279.5
$269.3
$245.8
$171.0
$154.8
$130.3
$95.7
$80.4
$73.1
$43.7
$20.4
$9.5
$7.1
$5.0
-2.2%
-1.3%
-4.8%
-2.9%
-4.8%
-3.5%
-1.6%
-3.9%
-2.4%
-3.1%
-1.5%
-1.2%
-5.9%
-2.2%
-5.4%
-1.1%
-4.9%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$19,770.9
-1.1%
Mature
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Russia
Economic Outlook
The Russian economy will suffer a deep recession in 2009 and a weak recovery in 2010 thanks to the sharp
decline in world-market energy prices and tight credit markets worldwide
Shrinking net exports and a large net outflow of capital have put significant downward pressure on the rouble. The
fundamental actions of the CBR are replaying the developments of the 1998 collapse of the rouble and are
seriously threatening macroeconomic stability.
Lower oil prices will have a major impact on the revenue side. Not only will fiscal revenues fall below target
because of the slowing economy, but recent injections of liquidity into the banking system will reinforce
inflationary pressures.
68
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
$60,492
2.2%
$141.4
0.8%
15.7%
-12.4%
10.3%
5.9%
$510
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
26.8%
-14.4%
12.0%
7.5%
$47.28
$0.00
$203,103
7.4%
$4.6
0.0%
18.9%
-28.3%
1.6%
-2.1%
-$0.46
-$0.75
$73,173
2.6%
$2.5
0.0%
3.6%
-52.6%
20.6%
-7.1%
$1,877
0.1%
$7.3
0.0%
25.2%
-21.7%
-3.5%
-5.0%
-$1.64
Apparel
$4,163
0.2%
$16.1
0.1%
25.7%
-20.9%
-2.6%
-4.8%
-$3.53
$5,792
0.2%
$13.4
0.1%
29.2%
-29.7%
-6.8%
-8.8%
-$4.95
$12,307
0.4%
$83.8
0.4%
36.7%
-24.0%
3.2%
-1.3%
-$5.13
$30,809
1.1%
$85.5
0.5%
22.9%
-23.3%
0.8%
-1.2%
-$5.17
Motor Vehicles
$16,680
0.6%
$24.6
0.1%
15.4%
-35.1%
-0.7%
-5.5%
-$6.09
Textiles
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus
Other Manufacturing
Government
Hotels & Restaurants
Recycling
$3,142
0.1%
$34.5
0.2%
11.8%
-26.7%
-3.2%
-5.3%
-$8.23
$11,329
0.4%
$77.2
0.4%
23.0%
-26.5%
0.0%
-3.4%
-$12.36
$7,081
0.3%
$51.3
0.3%
14.5%
-30.7%
-1.6%
-6.1%
-$13.95
$162,524
5.9%
$1,134.3
6.1%
13.4%
-15.2%
3.0%
-0.2%
-$14.10
$22,958
0.8%
$113.3
0.6%
19.0%
-25.2%
0.8%
-2.8%
-$15.00
$7,089
0.3%
$49.5
0.3%
23.0%
-43.5%
2.2%
-7.7%
-$16.25
Communication Equipment
$11,011
0.4%
$75.0
0.4%
24.9%
-30.8%
-4.5%
-6.1%
-$20.17
$10,042
0.4%
$118.2
0.6%
20.3%
-30.7%
1.2%
-65.1%
-$21.32
$17,117
0.6%
$99.0
0.5%
11.9%
-24.7%
-2.2%
-5.0%
-$22.28
69
$12,349
0.4%
$190.5
1.0%
19.6%
-28.6%
2.0%
-2.6%
-$23.48
$2,761,596
100%
$18,676
100%
16.3%
-28.0%
0.3%
-3.9%
-$3,400.20
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
70
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$3,314.3
$1,607.6
$1,336.6
$1,134.3
$1,002.1
$819.6
$735.2
$693.0
$664.3
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
-3.3%
-4.0%
-2.5%
-0.2%
-4.3%
-4.2%
-3.7%
-1.2%
-5.5%
$390.6
$377.8
$356.0
$245.7
$190.5
$187.1
$141.4
$113.3
$99.0
$85.5
$83.8
$77.2
$34.5
$24.6
$16.1
$7.3
$4.6
$0.0
-2.9%
-4.3%
-3.7%
-4.6%
-2.6%
-2.7%
5.9%
-2.8%
-5.0%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-3.4%
-5.3%
-5.5%
-4.8%
-5.0%
-2.1%
7.5%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$1,896.8
$807.1
$506.1
-5.8%
-5.8%
-6.2%
Mature
Mature
Mature
$437.9
$360.5
$259.4
$163.9
$118.2
$111.5
$81.0
$75.0
$51.3
$49.5
$13.4
$2.5
-8.7%
-9.0%
-6.5%
-9.2%
-65.1%
-7.3%
-6.9%
-6.1%
-6.1%
-7.7%
-8.8%
-7.1%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$18,676.1
-3.9%
Star
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
South Korea
Economic Outlook
The dramatic drop in fourth quarter GDP means that Korea should be near a bottom. Further declines should be
small but will result in layoffs throughout the first half of the year, as well as falling corporate profits. Korea's high
level of competitiveness should, however, prevent a further downward spiral.
Trade balances are projected to rise, as import contracts recognize lower commodity prices and the weak won
improves the terms of trade. This paradoxically will cause the won to appreciate, albeit slowly.
The unemployment rate will rise in the near term but should be limited. But, if the labor market has become more
flexibleor if memories of the Asian Crisis are strongthen firms could lay off large numbers of workers, causing
a repeat of the year-long 1998 contraction.
71
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Utilities
$57,474
2.6%
$2,526.6
10.1%
11.0%
-24.5%
31.4%
-33.5%
$724.06
Real Estate
$81,832
3.6%
$1,052.0
4.2%
7.3%
-18.6%
31.1%
6.8%
$411.67
$114,982
5.1%
$1,652.1
6.6%
9.5%
-27.8%
28.1%
-39.5%
$379.71
Government
$83,131
3.7%
$971.8
3.9%
7.4%
-14.3%
29.3%
5.9%
$319.78
$66,848
3.0%
$1,696.6
6.8%
2.7%
-26.7%
30.5%
3.4%
$311.22
Communications Services
$51,334
2.3%
$873.9
3.5%
11.2%
-19.6%
29.6%
6.3%
$309.81
$52,196
2.3%
$1,116.3
4.5%
9.7%
-24.9%
29.1%
4.7%
$286.04
$165,413
7.4%
$1,238.9
4.9%
5.4%
-23.3%
28.3%
4.1%
$274.59
Transportation Services
Construction
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
$39,992
1.8%
$1,219.9
4.9%
12.8%
-33.6%
32.9%
4.1%
$271.69
Education
$66,119
2.9%
$258.9
1.0%
13.7%
-9.7%
39.6%
13.5%
$227.71
Petroleum Refining
$114,986
5.1%
$1,267.1
5.1%
14.3%
-61.3%
56.0%
2.8%
$186.85
Communication Equipment
$137,517
6.1%
$1,569.2
6.3%
11.9%
-30.6%
24.9%
2.3%
$185.06
Transportation Equipment
$45,168
2.0%
$623.2
2.5%
6.7%
-22.7%
33.7%
-49.8%
$178.40
$81,871
3.7%
$380.6
1.5%
17.0%
-23.3%
32.6%
7.3%
$160.59
$144.38
$51,212
2.3%
$816.9
3.3%
7.9%
-20.7%
25.9%
3.3%
$133,796
6.0%
$605.0
2.4%
11.1%
-31.7%
31.2%
3.8%
$123.44
Wholesale Trade
$52,644
2.3%
$674.0
2.7%
5.8%
-25.2%
27.5%
-49.8%
$122.38
$51,309
2.3%
$498.7
2.0%
5.7%
-17.0%
26.6%
4.4%
$121.16
$43,832
2.0%
$500.2
2.0%
16.4%
-25.9%
30.0%
4.4%
$120.70
72
$55,556
2.5%
$459.2
1.8%
6.2%
-24.8%
28.3%
3.7%
$92.71
$2,242,885
100%
$25,051
100%
8.4%
-27.8%
30.0%
3.9%
$5,351.13
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
73
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$1,696.6
$1,569.2
$1,267.1
$1,238.9
$1,219.9
$1,116.3
$1,052.0
$971.8
$910.6
$873.9
$816.9
$644.0
$605.0
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
3.4%
2.3%
2.8%
4.1%
4.1%
4.7%
6.8%
5.9%
1.5%
6.3%
3.3%
0.1%
3.8%
$574.9
$523.0
$500.2
$498.7
$459.2
$414.2
$380.6
$372.2
$323.9
$258.9
$257.4
$208.8
$135.2
$124.4
$121.4
$118.8
$76.3
$52.4
$45.0
$28.0
$24.9
$3.5
$1.4
$0.0
-0.5%
0.9%
4.4%
4.4%
3.7%
3.1%
7.3%
2.7%
1.9%
13.5%
1.3%
0.9%
2.9%
5.8%
0.4%
3.6%
2.3%
7.8%
0.2%
0.1%
3.1%
1.6%
6.1%
14.7%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$2,526.6
$1,652.1
$674.0
-33.5%
-39.5%
-49.8%
Mature
Mature
Mature
$623.2
$89.7
-49.8%
-67.0%
Mature
Low Priority
$25,051.0
3.9%
Star
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Spain
Economic Outlook
The economy is set to contract in 2009 and 2010. Real GDP is projected to contract 4.2% (revised up from a
4.4% fall) in 2009 and 1.2% (up from a 1.5% fall) in 2010 after a 1.2% gain in 2008, according to the June
forecasts. The outlook for 2009 remains gloomy, reflecting the continued steep falls in industrial production, retail
sales, and business and construction activity in the first four months of 2009.
Private consumption is expected to contract in 2009 and 2010 as households rein in their spending when faced
with rising unemployment and the need to lower their excessive debt levels.
Spanish construction activity is set to contract sharply. The Spanish housing market is being enveloped by
oversupply. We do accept that the conditions are in place for a prolonged and steep slump in residential
construction.
The government is struggling to revive the economy, which has been derailed by the troubled housing market,
record-high consumer indebtedness, and the global credit squeeze. Consequently, the government has pledged
to spend 70 billion euro on economic- and financial-stimulus measures.
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98
74
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
$81,457
2.7%
$172.7
0.9%
10.9%
-1.4%
13.7%
9.7%
$132,431
4.4%
$838.6
4.3%
7.4%
-5.8%
1.6%
2.1%
$91.54
$67,565
2.3%
$623.1
3.2%
9.1%
-11.4%
3.3%
1.6%
$50.43
$182,304
6.1%
$1,269.5
6.5%
9.9%
-16.4%
1.2%
0.4%
$27.86
$28,349
1.0%
$468.4
2.4%
7.8%
-17.3%
2.2%
1.1%
$25.91
$109,450
3.7%
$1,268.0
6.5%
7.9%
-17.8%
2.2%
0.4%
$23.52
$50,221
1.7%
$126.5
0.6%
11.5%
-14.0%
1.3%
2.1%
$14.06
Transportation Equipment
$20,349
0.7%
$152.1
0.8%
5.5%
-12.4%
4.1%
1.6%
$12.58
Government
Communications Services
Real Estate
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
Social & Personal Services
$102.31
$7,064
0.2%
$43.7
0.2%
9.5%
-12.5%
3.5%
2.3%
$5.37
$4,780
0.2%
$0.0
0.0%
12.0%
-7.4%
12.6%
9.8%
$0.03
Mining
Health & Social Work
Paper & Paper Products
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery
$10,052
0.3%
$1.6
0.0%
19.8%
-21.8%
-0.3%
-1.1%
-$0.09
$125,288
4.2%
$3.8
0.0%
-3.5%
-44.3%
23.6%
-2.8%
-$0.50
$18,909
0.6%
$264.7
1.4%
7.7%
-19.8%
1.3%
-0.1%
-$0.90
$1,739
0.1%
$3.6
0.0%
-8.3%
-22.8%
-6.8%
-7.3%
-$1.15
$1,334
0.0%
$11.5
0.1%
11.7%
-15.0%
-2.1%
-2.8%
-$1.55
$6,796
0.2%
$23.9
0.1%
3.4%
-11.8%
-1.4%
-1.4%
-$1.57
Communication Equipment
Apparel
Recycling
Motor Vehicles
Total
75
$5,760
0.2%
$35.6
0.2%
0.3%
-18.4%
-2.6%
-1.6%
-$2.77
$10,448
0.4%
$36.7
0.2%
7.8%
-12.7%
-1.3%
-1.8%
-$3.20
$6,271
0.2%
$39.7
0.2%
5.2%
-29.6%
0.4%
-4.0%
-$7.26
$73,160
2.5%
$97.9
0.5%
5.9%
-26.9%
1.3%
-1.9%
-$8.89
$2,982,442
100%
$19,487
100%
7.3%
-18.7%
0.1%
-1.4%
-$1,307.41
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
-1.7%
-1.0%
-3.7%
-1.1%
0.4%
0.4%
-2.6%
2.1%
-0.7%
1.6%
-3.7%
1.1%
$444.7
$438.7
$434.2
$264.7
$222.2
$180.3
$172.7
$168.7
$162.5
$152.1
$126.5
$119.2
$97.9
$43.7
$36.7
$35.6
$23.9
$11.5
$3.8
$1.6
$0.0
-2.2%
-3.6%
-2.9%
-0.1%
-2.5%
-1.6%
9.7%
-2.1%
-1.7%
1.6%
2.1%
-1.9%
-1.9%
2.3%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-2.8%
-2.8%
-1.1%
9.8%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Wholesale Trade
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
Fabricated Metal Products
$761.8
$606.3
$501.4
-49.8%
-5.0%
-4.3%
Mature
Mature
Mature
$217.6
$181.9
$124.3
$95.9
$39.7
$3.6
-4.8%
-4.7%
-64.4%
-4.1%
-4.0%
-7.3%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$19,486.7
-1.4%
Star
Industry
Food Processing and Services
Utilities
Construction
Transportation Services
Real Estate
Social & Personal Services
Professional & Business Services
Government
Hotels & Restaurants
Communications Services
Equipment Rental & Leasing
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing
Total
76
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Sweden
Economic Outlook
The economy has been in recession since the third quarter of 2008, the main development being markedly
weaker export sales that were hurt by falling US and Eurozone demands. Meanwhile, domestic spending is likely
to cool substantially, stemming from weaker business investment.
Interest rates are set to fall more quickly than previously anticipated and concerns about inflation becoming too
low remain significant. The Riksbank also stressed that the repo rate is likely to remain very low in 2009 and early
2010, probably held at its current level of 0.5%.
The fiscal balance is expected to deteriorate markedly in 2009 and 2010. The government is now expecting deficit
of 3.1% of GDP in 2009 which is projected to widen to 5.1% of GDP in 2010 before falling back to 4.2% in 2011.
77
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Real Estate
$71,507
7.8%
$871.7
8.6%
4.1%
-13.9%
12.9%
4.3%
$206.55
$32,588
3.6%
$660.9
6.5%
5.0%
-19.3%
12.5%
2.9%
$101.99
Education
$35,666
3.9%
$132.4
1.3%
8.3%
-5.6%
21.7%
11.3%
$93.63
Government
$40,129
4.4%
$444.9
4.4%
1.5%
-11.4%
13.0%
3.6%
$87.06
Transportation Services
$70,473
7.7%
$1,026.9
10.1%
4.6%
-21.2%
11.3%
1.5%
$79.88
Utilities
$19,529
2.1%
$814.1
8.0%
3.8%
-19.0%
11.3%
1.8%
$76.02
Communications Services
$19,105
2.1%
$308.4
3.0%
3.6%
-14.3%
11.0%
2.9%
$47.59
$19,467
2.1%
$477.0
4.7%
5.4%
-25.1%
12.3%
1.9%
$46.27
$24,458
2.7%
$588.7
5.8%
1.6%
-18.8%
11.1%
1.3%
$40.06
$36,498
4.0%
$160.9
1.6%
9.7%
-16.9%
12.4%
4.4%
$38.94
$6,601
0.7%
$190.9
1.9%
5.1%
-24.0%
13.5%
2.8%
$28.47
$8,100
0.9%
$87.7
0.9%
5.9%
-14.7%
14.9%
5.6%
$27.63
$14,001
1.5%
$261.8
2.6%
7.6%
-25.0%
11.6%
1.2%
$15.79
Construction
$41,860
4.6%
$297.3
2.9%
5.8%
-19.3%
8.4%
0.7%
$10.49
$14,444
1.6%
$113.2
1.1%
3.0%
-18.7%
10.7%
1.7%
$9.98
$5,176
0.6%
$67.7
0.7%
0.6%
-16.9%
11.7%
2.1%
$7.31
$6.20
Transportation Equipment
Chemicals & Chemical Products
$22,400
2.5%
$96.0
0.9%
5.4%
-23.7%
11.4%
1.3%
$6,759
0.7%
$73.1
0.7%
6.2%
-21.9%
9.4%
1.2%
$4.56
$12,620
1.4%
$116.3
1.1%
2.5%
-14.0%
8.2%
0.6%
$3.53
78
$17,022
1.9%
$177.9
1.8%
15.9%
-58.6%
35.2%
0.2%
$1.39
$911,623
100%
$10,147
100%
4.2%
-20.0%
10.9%
1.5%
$788.64
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
1.5%
4.3%
1.8%
2.9%
1.3%
1.9%
3.6%
2.9%
1.2%
$190.9
$160.9
$132.4
$113.2
$96.0
$87.7
$73.1
$67.7
$1.6
$1.6
$0.0
2.8%
4.4%
11.3%
1.7%
1.3%
5.6%
1.2%
2.1%
2.9%
1.2%
13.1%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$719.9
$485.3
$297.3
$260.7
$251.0
$247.1
-0.3%
-1.1%
0.7%
-0.1%
-0.9%
-1.4%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$225.3
$193.1
$177.9
$152.3
$139.5
$129.2
$116.3
$99.9
$87.7
$87.2
$58.0
$20.9
$9.1
$3.8
$3.5
$2.4
-0.8%
-2.7%
0.2%
0.0%
-1.6%
-3.3%
0.6%
-1.5%
-0.1%
-0.4%
-2.2%
0.6%
-1.6%
-3.6%
-1.2%
-0.1%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$10,147.0
1.5%
Star
Industry
Transportation Services
Real Estate
Utilities
Social & Personal Services
Food Processing and Services
Paper & Paper Products
Government
Communications Services
Wood & Wood Products
Total
79
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Turkey
Economic Outlook
The macroeconomic stability that the country maintained in the immediate aftermath of the sharp worsening of the
global economic crisis has begun to crack, lending urgency to the final negotiations regarding potential
International Monetary Fund (IMF) support.
A loss of export demand from the European Union (EU) and the Middle East has sent domestic production
spiraling downward with most of the overall economic downturn occurring in the first half of 2009. GDP
contraction will continue on through the rest of the year and throughout most of 2010 as well.
Although momentum toward convergence has slowed, economic reforms and policy decisions aimed at aligning
the Turkish economy with EU standards will continue.
80
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Real Estate
$70,065
5.8%
$684.8
6.3%
20.9%
-23.1%
2.6%
1.0%
$33.92
Education
$23,355
1.9%
$69.5
0.6%
12.9%
-14.3%
10.4%
7.4%
$29.86
$5,817
0.5%
$114.3
1.0%
11.4%
-27.0%
4.7%
0.8%
$4.58
$16,279
1.4%
$57.5
0.5%
13.1%
-25.7%
2.0%
1.1%
$3.25
$10,547
0.9%
$91.5
0.8%
16.6%
-25.3%
2.4%
0.4%
$1.85
$205
0.0%
$1.8
0.0%
12.1%
-23.4%
3.9%
1.2%
$0.11
$460
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
20.3%
-15.6%
13.1%
9.4%
$0.00
Mining
$21,614
1.8%
$3.0
0.0%
26.8%
-31.1%
0.7%
-1.6%
-$0.23
$30,542
2.5%
$1.3
0.0%
-3.2%
-51.6%
21.4%
-4.4%
-$0.26
$1,880
0.2%
$28.2
0.3%
10.6%
-30.1%
3.1%
-0.2%
-$0.30
$475
0.0%
$1.4
0.0%
5.6%
-30.4%
-6.1%
-7.0%
-$0.42
$1,654
0.1%
$8.2
0.1%
10.0%
-21.7%
-0.9%
-2.1%
-$0.81
$693
0.1%
$7.3
0.1%
2.3%
-28.9%
1.4%
-2.5%
-$0.88
$13,271
1.1%
$215.8
2.0%
9.0%
-25.6%
2.4%
-0.1%
-$1.59
Recycling
$1,451
0.1%
$12.9
0.1%
6.0%
-38.3%
2.7%
-3.9%
-$2.32
$9,551
0.8%
$221.5
2.0%
11.3%
-29.2%
2.7%
-0.3%
-$3.09
Apparel
$8,925
0.7%
$44.0
0.4%
9.5%
-22.3%
-0.4%
-1.9%
-$4.11
Communication Equipment
$3,535
0.3%
$30.7
0.3%
4.2%
-31.5%
-4.1%
-3.2%
-$4.65
$17,242
1.4%
$32.4
0.3%
11.8%
-44.1%
1.0%
-5.8%
-$8.32
Motor Vehicles
Other Manufacturing
Total
81
$6,060
0.5%
$55.9
0.5%
4.7%
-31.0%
-0.1%
-3.3%
-$8.69
$1,205,016
100%
$10,890
100%
9.2%
-28.6%
0.7%
-2.3%
-$1,216.45
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
-1.3%
-1.3%
1.0%
-1.0%
$221.5
$215.8
$170.6
$114.3
$91.5
$69.5
$57.5
$44.0
$28.2
$3.0
$1.8
$0.0
-0.3%
-0.1%
-1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
7.4%
1.1%
-1.9%
-0.2%
-1.6%
1.2%
9.4%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$990.5
$826.6
$676.9
$652.3
$644.4
$583.1
$362.9
$314.3
$307.9
-4.3%
-2.3%
-4.8%
-2.4%
-3.0%
-4.5%
-3.8%
-3.1%
-4.4%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Construction
Research & Development Services
Textiles
Retail Trade
Chemicals & Chemical Products
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer Service & Related Activities
Basic Metals Manufacturing
Printing & Publishing
Other Manufacturing
Motor Vehicles
Communication Equipment
Recycling
Leather & Leather Products
Transportation Equipment
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery
Health & Social Work
$244.7
$232.1
$193.5
$147.7
$122.5
$88.4
$85.9
$83.5
$59.1
$55.9
$32.4
$30.7
$12.9
$8.2
$7.3
$1.4
$1.3
-2.3%
-5.0%
-3.5%
-3.3%
-2.8%
-3.9%
-4.4%
-3.4%
-3.3%
-3.3%
-5.8%
-3.2%
-3.9%
-2.1%
-2.5%
-7.0%
-4.4%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$10,890.3
-2.3%
Mature
Industry
Communications Services
Utilities
Real Estate
Government
Total
82
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
United Kingdom
Economic Outlook
GDP plunged by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) and 4.1% year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2009, following
contraction of 1.6% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 0.7% q/q in the third. The first-quarter q/q and y/y
declines were both the sharpest for nearly 30 years.
On a more positive note, the rate of contraction has slowed substantially in the second quarter, and it is possible
that the economy could even be close to stabilizing. Economic activity is benefiting from the monetary and fiscalpolicy stimulus that was enacted. We now project GDP to contract 3.7% in 2009 and to edge up 0.3% in 2010.
Inflation will be brought down by more weak economic activity, rising spare capacity, deepening pay moderation,
and favorable base effects. We are forecasting inflation to average 1.5% in 2009 and 1.3% in 2010.
83
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Government
$255,651
5.2%
$2,205.3
5.2%
4.6%
-16.6%
12.4%
4.6%
$551.24
Education
$204,200
4.2%
$589.9
1.4%
8.6%
-13.9%
17.7%
9.6%
$341.13
$225,968
4.6%
$3,566.3
8.4%
4.7%
-24.3%
8.6%
1.8%
$334.19
Real Estate
$297,681
6.1%
$2,823.9
6.6%
6.5%
-26.1%
7.8%
1.3%
$184.19
Communications Services
$119,512
2.4%
$1,501.4
3.5%
4.1%
-22.0%
7.6%
1.6%
$122.85
Utilities
$138,737
2.8%
$4,500.7
10.6%
3.2%
-26.5%
6.4%
0.2%
$56.11
Transportation Equipment
$41,065
0.8%
$418.1
1.0%
-1.8%
-23.2%
10.1%
2.1%
$44.86
$25,250
0.5%
$212.6
0.5%
4.8%
-22.1%
9.8%
2.9%
$32.79
$32.53
$36,431
0.7%
$820.0
1.9%
1.3%
-30.8%
7.7%
0.8%
$146,924
3.0%
$896.2
2.1%
2.4%
-26.4%
5.6%
0.3%
$13.34
$74,981
1.5%
$257.2
0.6%
5.1%
-29.2%
6.6%
0.9%
$11.40
$1,866
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
8.4%
-14.4%
18.4%
11.1%
$0.02
$105,552
2.2%
$3.0
0.0%
12.9%
-31.5%
7.5%
0.1%
$0.02
$1,765
0.0%
$8.4
0.0%
1.1%
-22.5%
5.9%
-1.4%
-$0.59
$48,079
1.0%
$344.8
0.8%
1.7%
-22.3%
5.3%
0.0%
-$0.82
$342,839
7.0%
$14.2
0.0%
-5.6%
-50.2%
32.5%
-1.5%
-$1.01
Apparel
$6,005
0.1%
$28.7
0.1%
0.8%
-19.6%
6.6%
-0.8%
-$1.19
Recycling
$2,493
0.1%
$21.5
0.1%
1.4%
-35.5%
6.8%
-2.7%
-$2.79
$8,825
0.2%
$25.2
0.1%
-10%
-29.6%
1.3%
-4.0%
-$4.60
84
$124,814
2.5%
$416.5
1.0%
4.7%
-31.4%
6.7%
-0.4%
-$8.98
$4,904,291
100%
$42,567
100%
3.1%
-27.3%
6.3%
-0.2%
-$480.00
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
85
Business Travel
Spending
(2008, mn US$)
$4,500.7
$3,566.3
$3,039.1
$2,823.9
$2,473.0
$2,205.3
$1,501.4
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
0.2%
1.8%
-0.2%
1.3%
-0.4%
4.6%
1.6%
$896.2
$820.0
$589.9
$418.1
$416.5
$344.8
$257.2
$212.6
$3.0
$0.0
0.3%
0.8%
9.6%
2.1%
-0.4%
0.0%
0.9%
2.9%
0.1%
11.1%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$4,901.9
$2,374.2
$2,081.3
$1,881.5
$1,668.1
-1.5%
-3.9%
-2.7%
-2.3%
-2.5%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$879.9
$629.0
$618.4
$504.3
$491.8
$489.7
$453.7
$294.4
$238.8
$228.3
$205.8
$157.8
$122.2
$92.4
$87.8
$28.7
$25.2
$21.5
$14.2
$8.4
-1.3%
-3.7%
-1.1%
-1.6%
-3.8%
-4.3%
-1.4%
-3.3%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-3.4%
-1.2%
-5.6%
-4.9%
-4.4%
-0.8%
-4.0%
-2.7%
-1.5%
-1.4%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$42,567.3
-0.2%
Star
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
United States
Economic Outlook
The economy remains on track to bottom out soonat least in output terms. We expect the rate of contraction in
GDP to slow in the current quarter (to minus 2.8%), before GDP edges higher in the second half of the year. A
rapid recovery is not in prospect, though, after such an extreme financial shock.
We expect to see jobs declining for the rest of the year, but progressively less rapidly. And a retreat in the
unemployment ratenow 9.4%requires not just that jobs grow, but that they grow faster than the labor force.
Inflation is not a danger now, but could become one eventually. The more difficult problem will be for the federal
government to deal with the budget deficit. The stimulus package, financial bailout costs, and recession will take
the federal budget deficit to US$1.5 trillion in 2009 and US$1.2 trillion in 2010.
86
99
00
01 02
03
04
05 06
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Government
$2,232,754
8.3%
$21,351
8.2%
3.1%
9.0%
4.7%
4.1%
$4,701.21
Real Estate
$2,329,407
8.6%
$24,496
9.4%
4.4%
-10.4%
2.5%
1.9%
$2,440.43
Education
$1,062,217
3.9%
$3,402
1.3%
7.1%
9.7%
11.1%
11.0%
$2,326.07
$1,029,765
3.8%
$18,016
6.9%
2.4%
-6.6%
2.5%
2.2%
$2,080.94
Communications Services
$934,632
3.5%
$13,016
5.0%
3.6%
-2.5%
1.3%
2.4%
$1,603.01
Utilities
$512,684
1.9%
$18,437
7.1%
2.3%
-12.7%
3.9%
1.3%
$1,267.13
$748,649
2.8%
$15,543
5.9%
-0.3%
-5.9%
0.9%
0.9%
$734.46
Transportation Equipment
$222,807
0.8%
$2,515
1.0%
-2.4%
-3.1%
4.2%
3.4%
$462.69
$346.74
$208,478
0.8%
$5,202
2.0%
2.2%
-15.6%
1.9%
1.3%
$741,708
2.8%
$5,015
1.9%
1.5%
-7.7%
1.5%
1.2%
$310.38
$91,646
0.3%
$855
0.3%
0.4%
-1.8%
3.4%
4.4%
$204.17
$309,917
1.2%
$1,178
0.5%
2.7%
-12.6%
0.6%
1.1%
$67.83
$110,513
0.4%
$1,032
0.4%
-0.1%
-7.5%
-1.1%
1.2%
$61.51
$168,900
0.6%
$3,570
1.4%
1.0%
-17.9%
1.3%
0.2%
$27.94
$18,683
0.1%
$0.3
0.0%
3.6%
6.2%
13.5%
12.3%
$0.23
$4,461
0.0%
$24
0.0%
-1.0%
-8.9%
-0.9%
-1.5%
-$1.74
87
$626,334
2.3%
$26
0.0%
-43%
-20.3%
-4.4%
-1.9%
-$2.39
$1,693,585
6.3%
$78
0.0%
-7.8%
-38.1%
22.4%
-1.6%
-$6.12
$23,276
0.1%
$123
0.0%
-3.3%
-7.4%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-$7.48
$843,098
3.1%
$9,261
3.5%
1.2%
-12.7%
0.5%
0.0%
-$21.77
$26,936,874
100%
$261,362
100%
1.9%
-10.3%
1.1%
0.3%
$4,161.10
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Business Travel
Spending
(CAGR, 2009-2013)
1.9%
4.1%
1.3%
2.2%
0.9%
2.4%
0.0%
$5,201.7
$5,015.4
$3,570.4
$3,401.8
$3,330.3
$2,514.8
$1,178.5
$1,031.6
$855.5
$0.3
1.3%
1.2%
0.2%
11.0%
-0.2%
3.4%
1.1%
1.2%
4.4%
12.3%
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
Emerging
$18,384.5
$15,224.7
$14,270.0
$13,712.9
$11,921.9
$6,739.5
$6,709.0
-1.5%
-2.4%
-1.5%
-3.1%
-2.6%
-3.6%
-0.7%
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
Mature
$4,416.3
$3,446.3
$3,359.3
$2,710.1
$2,704.4
$2,520.0
$2,414.6
$1,582.8
$1,359.6
$929.2
$788.5
$765.4
$653.6
$280.5
$123.4
$78.0
$25.6
$23.7
-4.5%
-2.9%
-1.1%
-2.9%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-4.3%
-2.3%
-1.9%
-1.2%
-4.5%
-2.7%
-7.6%
-7.0%
-1.2%
-1.6%
-1.9%
-1.5%
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
Low Priority
$261,362.3
0.3%
Star
Industry
Real Estate
Government
Utilities
Social & Personal Services
Food Processing and Services
Communications Services
Transportation Services
Total
88
Industry
Status
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
Star
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
beginning of the current recession was December 2007. Many parts of the economy slogged along for another 8-9
months before housing and credit markets began to unravel. Businesses were already beginning to rationalize business
89
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
travel by Q4 2008, but when the economy hit a brick wall in September, the business travel faucet was tightened
dramatically. Moreover, the media began to vilify certain types of travel, especially meeting and convention trips to more
popular destinations. These factors conspired to push 2008 business travel spending down by 3%, with a further decline
of 10% expected in 2009.
Business travel spending reacts to a number of underlying forces (among others) including: (1) changes in the number of
trips taken, (2) changes in trip budgets, (3) changes in travel prices, and (4) changes in the typical length of a trip.
Business travel spending can be interpreted as the residual outcome of the interplay of all of these measures of travel
activity.
U.S. business travel volume is charted below. The numbers include all types of business trips including day trips. In the
first chart, domestic business travel is depicted. We have separated transient business from group meeting & convention
trips, the former comprising the majority (about 60-65%) of trips.
800.0
10%
700.0
5%
600.0
500.0
0%
400.0
-5%
300.0
Yr-to-Yr %
900.0
-10%
200.0
-15%
100.0
0.0
-20%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Transient Business
2008
US domestic business travel volume fell to an estimated 694 million Person-Stays in 2008, down 12.5% from the year
before. A Person-Stay recognizes that a business trip often includes multiple destinations or stays. As such, PersonStays is closer to the concept of a hotel room night. Given the constraints placed on travel by employers during the year,
as well as the previously-mentioned "vilification" factor, Group Meeting & Convention Person-Stays fell by 14.5% in 2008.
The second chart describes outbound international business travel. These trips are more difficult to typify, but with the
help of sources such as the U.S. Department of Commerce's Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, the Bureau of
90
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Economic Analysis, and StatsCan, IHS Global Insight is able to estimate this component of U.S. business travel.
The D.K. Shifflet & Associates ongoing panel database of domestic US travel not only provides accurate measures of the
level of business travel, it also allows us to describe the behavior of these travelers. A complete profile of the U.S.
business traveler is provided in a separate section of this report.
IHS Global Insight has also developed measures of business travel spending across a number of dimensions. First, we
provide a look at travel spending by major category, focusing on those that comprise the lion share of the trip budget and
reimbursed by the traveler's employer. Again, all business trips are included regardless of the length of stay or trip
purpose.
$250,000
$200,000
All Other
Food
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008e
91
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Most of the categories descriptions are self-evident, except perhaps "All Other". Since we are attempting to capture all
trip spending, regardless of trip purpose, length or employee reimbursement, a category was added to include
entertainment, shopping, insurance, and other miscellaneous trip expenditures.
Next, we view business travel from the perspective of the company (industries) that sponsor the trip. The chart below
identifies U.S. business travel spending on both domestic and outbound international trips by major industry sector. The
level of business spending is both a function of the size of the industry and the extent to which business travel is a critical
input.
As we have mentioned in the Global Business Travel Analysis section of this report, industries use business travel
differently and at varying levels. Professional & Business Services require business trips to sell, fulfill, and manage the
services they offer to their clients. Business travel is obviously an integral part of their production recipe. Mining, on the
other hand, uses travel much less intensely, particularly when compared to the industry's total revenue.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Source: IHS Global Insight, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, D.K. Shifflet & Associates
From a supplier, buyer, travel manager, and travel management company point of view, this analysis can help to prioritize
market segments for opportunity and risk. Consider:
93
Large sectors tend to engage in more business travel spending, regardless of its share of total costs
Sectors with high intensity rates (Business Travel Spend Per Dollar of Revenue) view travel as a critical input and
would be more likely to listen to proposals for productivity or cost savings
Industries that are highly concentrated with a smaller number of large players tend to have greater central control
of procurement and cost management
Sectors with widely dispersed markets and/or supply chains will require more business travel to maintain and
grow their businesses.
The best market segments are those that are large (Wholesale Trade), have a high travel-intensity factor (Prof &
Business Services), and tend to be highly concentrated
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
The travel intensity rates for your industry sector can be used to benchmark your own company against the
industry-wide averages. Are you traveling less than the average? If so, is there room to grow business travel to
improve sales, operations, training, or customer service?
Finally, IHS Global Insight breaks out US business travel by job function of the traveler. Job function is another business
travel market segment that is used to penetrate markets. Using data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,
D.K. Shifflet & Associates, the DOC's Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, and IHS Global Insight, our project team has
been able to estimate business travel volume and spending by job function.
U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL VOLUME & SPENDING BY OCCUPATION
Includes both Domestic & International Outbound Trips
Source: IHS Global Insight, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, D.K. Shifflet & Associates, NBTA
The occupations that float to the top of the ranking of business trip volume should not surprise those that serve the
industry. Sales, financial, and management occupations take the lion share of trips and spend the majority of T&E
budgets. Keep in mind that jobs designated as Sales or Management above includes every industry. Consequently, retail
auto sales people, telephone sales technicians, and real estate agents, for example, are included in "Sales and related
occupations". This helps to explain both the relatively low annual salary number and relatively high percentage of total
business trips and spending associated with this category. Although beyond the scope of the current research project,
this data could be further broken out by industry. This would provide for a more precise break-out of job functions within.
Taken together, all Sales & Management occupations took an estimated 226 millions trips in 2008. This represents half of
all trips. The percentage of travel spending is essentially the same in the table. In reality, we would expect that even
more of the spending would be executed by these occupations. Anecdotally, they take longer trips (distance and
duration) and tend to stay in more expensive accommodations. Without data to specifically measure these differences,
94
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
IHS Global Insight was forced to apply the overall average spend-per-trip to every occupation on the list. This would be
an excellent topic for follow-up research.
The next section of the report documents our view of the prospects for business travel in the immediate future and
beyond. IHS Global Insight has built an econometric model to forecast business travel volume and spending on a
quarterly basis. The projections of business travel through 2013 are driven by a number of external factors including
economic drivers, oil prices, hotel rates, and relative industry performance (and their travel intensity). The section
includes a story-behind-the-numbers that helps to frame our view of business travel for the next few years.
95
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
The recession remains severe, but a bottom is in sight, at least for output if not
employment. We expect GDP to begin to growalbeit slowlyin the second half of the
year.
Recovery is expected to be slow, since credit conditions will stay tight. The economy still contracts 3.0% during
2009, before growing 1.4% in 2010. The unemployment rate reaches 10.3%.
Deflation fears have receded. Inflation remains a risk for the future, but not an imminent threat. Headline CPI
inflation is in negative territory and wage inflation is falling, not rising.
Bond yields have backed up as fears for the economy have diminished. But we think that it is too soon for a major
bear market in bonds. Governments and central banks are trying to unfreeze lending markets, but credit
conditions will ease only slowly.
The market is too weak to allow GM and Chrysler to survive in current form, and we assume that their
negotiations with stakeholders and the government will end in some form of pre-packaged bankruptcy, from which
smaller and leaner entities will emerge. In the case of Chrysler, survival in any form will be contingent upon a deal
with Fiat.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has cut its federal funds target to a range of 0.00.25%. We assume that this
target stays in place for all of 2009, and that the Fed begins to tighten only in the fourth quarter of 2010.
Real federal defense purchases rose 7.2% in calendar year 2008, but we expect a smaller 4.6% increase in 2009
and a 1.3% decline in 2010 as the new administration scales back defense commitments.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
The bleakest part of the jobs report was the still-heavy loss of workers in manufacturing, suggesting that the inventory
adjustment in the goods sector remains severe. The inventory cycle will be the key to the growth profile in 2009.
Inventories took more than 2 percentage points out of first-quarter GDP growth, but it would be foolish to imagine that this
adjustment is complete. Inventory/sales ratios have barely begun to adjust, and we expect inventories to be a drag on
growth again in the second quarter. Only in the second half of the year, as the rate of inventory decline slows, will the
inventory cycle become a plus for growth. At that point, real GDP begins to expand even though final sales are still
declining.
Business investment is still falling, but less steeply. We expect second-quarter equipment spending to tumble
15.6%, another sharp drop, but less than half the 33.5% plunge in the first quarter. We expect growth to resume by the
end of the year. For 2009 overall, we foresee a 19.0% drop in equipment spending, followed by a 7.1% increase in 2010.
On the business structures side, the outlook is mixed. Total structures spendingaside from drilling activitywill
probably increase in the current quarter, but the gains will be narrowly concentrated in oil refining and power generation.
The trend for commercial construction such as retail developments, offices, and hotels remains downward. We expect
declines in private nonresidential building to resume in the third quarter of 2009 and extend through the third quarter of
2010.
In the state and local government sector, revenue growth is slowing or even negative, while financing has become
more expensive. Real state and local government purchases began to decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. We expect
them to roughly stabilize by midyear, but only because of federal support for current and capital spending that we estimate
at $171 billion over calendar years 2009 and 2010.
The full fiscal stimulus package is valued at around $787 billion over 10 years, and we assume that $561 billion of this is
injected during the first two calendar years. The stimulus adds about 0.8 percentage point to 2009 GDP growth and 1.3
percentage points to 2010 growth, and creates or saves just under 2.5-million jobs by the fourth quarter of 2010. But the
peak-to-trough decline in employment is still more than 7 million.
The stimulus package, financial bailout costs, and recession will take the federal budget deficit to $1.5 trillion in 2009
and $1.2 trillion in 2010. Failure to act on the deficit does not necessarily mean that inflation would surgebut would
guarantee that interest rates go much higher.
The global recession has hit exports hard. They plunged at a 28.7% annual rate in the first quarter. Although there are
now signs that world trade is beginning to stabilize, we do not expect the U.S. recovery to be export-led. Apart from China,
which has injected massive fiscal stimulus, the recovery should come more slowly to the rest of the world. This means
that the trade gap will widen later this year, as imports pick up before exports. The dollar has started to weaken again as
its safe-haven bid has diminished. We still see its long-term
trend as downwards. The current-account deficit should
fall about 40% in 2009 ($264 billion), almost entirely
because of a $230-billion plunge in the bill for imported oil.
Rising commodity prices have eased fears of deflation, and
there is now talk of inflation risks as some investors are
viewing the magnitude of monetary and fiscal stimuli with
alarm. We think that some commodity pricesnotably oil
have moved in advance of the fundamentals, and see some
correction as likely. But even without such a correction, we
see too much excess capacity in product markets and,
especially, in the labor market for an inflation spiral to take
hold any time soon. By the third quarter of 2009, we expect
headline CPI inflation to be minus 2.4% year-on-year, largely
97
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
on lower energy costs. We expect core consumption price inflation to soften and bottom out at 0.9% in the second quarter
of 2010, just below the bottom of the Federal Reserve's 12% comfort zone.
Bond yields have moved much higher, into the 3.754.00% range for 10-year Treasuries, on a combination of reduced
safe-haven demand, indigestion over heavy bond issuance, worry over future budget deficits, and concern over long-term
inflation risks. Although we do see bond yields heading substantially higher over the long term, we think it is too early for a
major bear market to begin, since we see the economy as still weak and inflation as a distant rather than an immediate
threat.
But both the Fed and the federal government need "exit strategies" to keep bond market vigilantes at bay. The Federal
Reserve is not yet ready to take its foot off the accelerator, but it is thinking about how and when to withdraw its
unprecedented stimulus. Markets are beginning to price in a Fed interest rate hike later in 2009, but we believe that is far
too early, and do not expect higher rates until deep into 2010. But we do not doubt the Fed's resolve to act as necessary.
The more difficult problem will be for the federal government to deal with the budget deficit.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
levels up. Interestingly, many companies are actually booking more spot deals at the moment, choosing to go outside
their negotiated rates in order to take advantage of this aggressive price cutting environment. In addition, the year-overyear gas prices are still down about 40%, even with the recent rise.
It is expected that the structural decline in the number of trips from the latest recession will be quite similar to the number
of business trips that disappeared after 9/11, when about 10% of all business trips disappeared. New technologies like
video conferencing are certainly a contributor of these losses.
Over the longer term, this recession is the worst of the post-war era. Economic recovery is expected to be slow and
drawn-out. The longer term forecast for visitors shows a similar lengthened recovery. IHS Global Insight does not expect
business travel trips to show any recovery until the outer reaches of the forecast. After reaching 550 million person trips
prior to 9/11 and only recovering to about 513 million trips in 2004, the number of business travel trips is expected to drop
to and stay at a level of about 430 million trips through the forecast period.
99
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Prospects for increases in business travel spending are slightly better than the outlook for travel volume. This is primarily
due to recovering travel inflation. By mid-year 2010, IHS Global Insight expects to see average daily room rates (ADRs),
air fares, rental car, and gasoline prices beginning to edge up. This will push business travel spend growth by an average
of about 3-4% per year between 2011 and 2013.
The last table in this section is a repeat from the Top 20 Global Travel Markets Outlook section pertaining to U.S.
business travel forecast by industry. Prospects for recovery and growth are illustrated in the right-hand columns, both
from an immediate term and longer-term (through 2013) perspective. The sectors in the chart are ranked based upon our
expectations for increases in the level of business travel spending between 2008 and 2013.
100
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Total Sales
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
2008
(mn US$)
% of
Total
19982008
CAGR
2009
%ch
2010
%ch
20092013
CAGR
2009-2013
Change
(mn US$)
Government
$2,232,754
8.3%
$21,351
8.2%
3.1%
9.0%
4.7%
4.1%
$4,701.21
Real Estate
$2,329,407
8.6%
$24,496
9.4%
4.4%
-10.4%
2.5%
1.9%
$2,440.43
Education
$1,062,217
3.9%
$3,402
1.3%
7.1%
9.7%
11.1%
11.0%
$2,326.07
$1,029,765
3.8%
$18,016
6.9%
2.4%
-6.6%
2.5%
2.2%
$2,080.94
Communications Services
$934,632
3.5%
$13,016
5.0%
3.6%
-2.5%
1.3%
2.4%
$1,603.01
Utilities
$512,684
1.9%
$18,437
7.1%
2.3%
-12.7%
3.9%
1.3%
$1,267.13
$748,649
2.8%
$15,543
5.9%
-0.3%
-5.9%
0.9%
0.9%
$734.46
Transportation Equipment
$222,807
0.8%
$2,515
1.0%
-2.4%
-3.1%
4.2%
3.4%
$462.69
$346.74
$208,478
0.8%
$5,202
2.0%
2.2%
-15.6%
1.9%
1.3%
$741,708
2.8%
$5,015
1.9%
1.5%
-7.7%
1.5%
1.2%
$310.38
$91,646
0.3%
$855
0.3%
0.4%
-1.8%
3.4%
4.4%
$204.17
$309,917
1.2%
$1,178
0.5%
2.7%
-12.6%
0.6%
1.1%
$67.83
$110,513
0.4%
$1,032
0.4%
-0.1%
-7.5%
-1.1%
1.2%
$61.51
$168,900
0.6%
$3,570
1.4%
1.0%
-17.9%
1.3%
0.2%
$27.94
$18,683
0.1%
$0.3
0.0%
3.6%
6.2%
13.5%
12.3%
$0.23
$4,461
0.0%
$24
0.0%
-1.0%
-8.9%
-0.9%
-1.5%
-$1.74
101
$626,334
2.3%
$26
0.0%
-43%
-20.3%
-4.4%
-1.9%
-$2.39
$1,693,585
6.3%
$78
0.0%
-7.8%
-38.1%
22.4%
-1.6%
-$6.12
$23,276
0.1%
$123
0.0%
-3.3%
-7.4%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-$7.48
$843,098
3.1%
$9,261
3.5%
1.2%
-12.7%
0.5%
0.0%
-$21.77
$26,936,874
100%
$261,362
100%
1.9%
-10.3%
1.1%
0.3%
$4,161.10
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
False Dawn (20% Probability): The pessimistic scenario is more than a recession, but not quite a depression (some
economists call this gray area a "slump"). The simulation assumes that the financial crisis worsens, sending the economy
into its deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Credit markets remain clogged, both domestically and across the
world. Without access to credit, domestic spending contracts and the housing market falls into an even deeper hole.
The pessimistic scenario assumes that the downward spiral in financial markets continues into 2010. The Treasuryeurodollar (TED) spread is still more than 100 basis points in the third quarter of 2009 (normally, it is less than 70 basis
points. The spread between 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury note yield also remains wider than
normal through 2010.
Oil prices are lower over the short run in this scenario because world demand is falling. As a result, bottom-line inflation is
lower. Core inflation is also lower because demand is so weak. The low inflation readings give the Federal Reserve
leeway to keep interest rates in the 0.00.25% target rangejust as in the baselineduring 2009 and 2010. But when the
economy gets off the mat, inflation starts creeping up because of rising energy prices, a slowdown in productivity, a
weaker dollar, and because the Fed responds to the crisis by creating too much money. The Fed responds to rising prices
by steadily raising interest rates. But its response is a bit too little, too late, and inflation continues to climb. Eventually,
core inflation stabilizesbut at nearly a full percentage point above the baseline rate.
In this scenario, the housing recession drags on. The median price of existing homes falls 12% below the baseline in
2010. Home sales are also much lower. Housing starts began to turn around from record-low levelsjust as in the
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
baseline--but the rebound is sluggish, as starts drop from 900,000 units in 2008 to 546,000 in 2009 (compared with
556,000 in the baseline) and 701,000 in 2010 (compared with 865,000 in the baseline). The weakness in housing
undermines consumer confidence. This, along with the drop in wealth associated with falling home prices and a slowdown
in job growth, causes consumers to retrench sharply. Hit especially hard are light-vehicle sales, which fall to 8.8-million
units in 2009 (versus 9.8 million in the baseline).
Capital spending is also weaker, as firms respond to a bleaker outlook by scuttling long-term projects. Business fixed
investment drops over nine straight quarters. Foreign economic growth is lower, which cuts into export growth. Indeed,
real GDP among the United States' major-currency trading partners falls over seven quarters, starting in the second
quarter of 2008 (this category does not include China). As a result, exports deduct 2.0 and 0.2 percentage points from
GDP growth in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
Over the longer term, GDP growth remains slower than in the baseline, mainly because productivity advances only 1.4%
on average over the next 10 years, compared with 1.8% in the baseline. Inflation is higher because of the slower
productivity gains and a weaker dollar, and because the Fed, after allowing inflation to creep past its comfort band (so that
it eventually rises above 2.5%), decides to stabilize it at that higher level, rather than risk another recession by bringing it
down.
In this scenario, real GDP contracts 3.3% in 2009 and 0.9% in 2010 (compared with a 2.8% drop and a 1.5% gain,
respectively, in the baseline). Employment drops for 11 straight quarters (the economy loses 8.9-million jobs),
manufacturing output falls over 11 straight quarters, and real GDP drops for seven straight quarters, starting with the third
quarter of 2008. Unlike the previous two recessions, those of 1991 and 2001, this one takes a heavy toll. Peak to trough,
real GDP drops 5.1%not quite enough to be called a depression (defined as a 10% peak-to-trough drop in real GDP),
but much worse than the losses during the 197375 and 198182 recessions. Unlike those recessions, however, the
economy emerges from this downturn weaker, and facing more troubles ahead.
Green Shoots Sprout (20% Probability): In the optimistic scenario, the rapid response of the Federal Reserve to the
crisis in financial markets, coupled with the Treasury's "rescue" plan, Congress' stimulus package, and help from central
banks abroad work, limit the downside. The recession is still a nasty one, though. There is no additional economic
stimulus above the level in the baseline, but the primary difference is that the wheels of stimulus start to achieve traction
more quickly, producing growth of 3.1% in the third quarter.
In addition, the standard optimistic scenario assumption of stronger total factor productivity growth is also in place. Total
factor productivity, a measure of how technological progress augments economic growth, is enhanced by reinvigorated
innovation in the technology sector. This allows lower inflation and stronger income growth over the long termbut in the
short term, a stronger economy means that inflation is higher in the optimistic scenario than in the baseline (particularly in
commodities). Headline CPI accelerates to 2.9% y/y in the third quarter of 2010, as opposed to 1.8% in the baseline.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
The stronger sales pace during 2009 in the optimistic scenario requires less of an inventory reduction than in the baseline,
with demand recovery trimming inventories back to desirable levels. Final sales fall 1.7% in 2009 in the more optimistic
scenario, as opposed to a 2.3% drop in the baseline.
With credit again flowing late this year, business fixed investment rebounds 6.5% in 2010, after suffering a severe 16.6%
contraction in 2009. This compares with a steeper 18.3% drop during 2009 in the baseline forecast, and a 0.1% decline
during 2010. The downturn in residential investment is also less severe in the optimistic scenario, with housing starts
beginning to recover during the second half of 2009 and averaging over 596,000 units for the year, compared with a much
weaker baseline level of roughly 556,000 units. This recovery is also reflected in house prices, as the FHFA housing price
index posts a slimmer 5.5% drop in 2009 in the optimistic scenario.
The optimistic scenario also assumes faster growth in the rest of the world, and a dollar that is initially weaker than the
baseline, but later on is stronger. The dollar helps GDP early in the forecast period, but restrains it later on, as relatively
weaker foreign currencies encourage import growth.
Finally, we assume slightly higher energy prices in the near term due to stronger global demand, but lower prices in the
longer term due to a more optimistic assumption about supply. Oil prices remain in the low $70s per barrel over the rest of
2009, rather than holding at $60/barrel in the baseline, and then gradually rise to the low $80s by the end of 2014.
On net, these assumptions produce a much brighter economic outlook than the dismal pictures painted by the baseline
and pessimistic scenarios. After falling 0.6% in the second quarter (compared with a 2.1% decline in the baseline
forecast), real GDP undergoes a sharp turnaround, climbing 3.1% and 3.5% in the third and fourth quarters of 2009. Real
GDP does even better in 2010, rising 3.1%, after shrinking 2.0% in 2009. The unemployment rate peaks near its present
level (in the mid-9% range) and falls to 6.6% by late 2014.
Inflation implications of the milder recession in the optimistic scenario are modest. Consumer prices fall less than in the
baseline and rebound more sharply at first, but by 2011 lower oil prices and improved productivity growth bring inflation
down below its baseline pace. In short, the optimistic alternative sees more-muted cycle dynamics, and a quicker turn in
the cycle than the baseline.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
110
100
90
20
09
Q
1
20
09
Q
2
20
09
Q
3
20
09
Q
4
20
10
Q
1
20
10
Q
2
20
10
Q
3
20
10
Q
4
20
11
Q
1
20
11
Q
2
20
11
Q
3
20
11
Q
4
80
Optimistic
105
Pessimistic
Forecast
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
In the pessimistic scenario, the slump created by the continued backup in the financial markets, the lower consumer
spending and weaker business investment result in business trips declining by over 10%, year-over-year, in each quarter
through the remainder of 2009. Declines in business trips continue through mid-2011, as GDP growth continues to be
negative. Annual business trips decline to under 400 million, down over 20% from the 503 million business trips in 2007.
For the first time in many years, quarterly business trips in the 4th
Business
quarter of 2010 fall below the 100 million level and fall as low as
BusinessTravel
Travel Trips
Trips
(Percent)
(Percent)
95 million in the 4th quarter of 2013, towards the end of the
44
forecast period as the economy comes out of the slump into a
22
00
protracted period of weakness.
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
-14
-14
2005Q1
2005Q1 2006Q3
2006Q3 2008Q1
2008Q1 2009Q3
2009Q3 2011Q1
2011Q1 2012Q3
2012Q3
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Forecast
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Forecast
-12
Looking at the optimistic scenario, the recovery in the economy
-16
-16
-20
translated into business travel spending jumping by over 4% in
-20
2007Q1
2007Q1 2008Q1
2008Q1 2009Q1
2009Q1 2010Q1
2010Q1 2011Q1
2011Q1
the first quarter of 2010 in comparison to the first quarter of
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Forecast
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Forecast
2009. Business travel spending, year-over-year, moderates to
the 2.5 to 3% range as slight increases in trips along with a
more normal inflationary period reflect the recovering economy. In this scenario, energy prices are increasing but
increasing productivity and supplies keep those increases moderate.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
The understandable concern is that, as the cost of traveling goes up, the amount of travel will decrease. Oil price spikes
cut into nominal household consumption in 2008 and the share of consumption represented by gasoline has not been this
high since the early 1980s. In nominal terms, gasoline consumption as a percentage of total consumption jumped from
1.9% in 1998 to 2.4% in 2003 and to an even higher
80%
Price of im ported oil, left
3.9% in 2008. In real terms, however, gasolines
Total w orld arrivals, right
share of total consumption has been steadily declining
60%
from 3.4% in 1980 to 2.2% in 2008.
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
All else being equal, a 1% increase in the price of oil will decrease total world arrivals by 0.12%. With per barrel prices of
around $67 to $69 at this time, a jump to $100 a barrel would indicate a jump of around 43%. An increase of 43% in the
price per barrel of oil would result in about a 5% reduction in travel spending. To put this in context, IHS Global Insight is
forecasting a year-over-year change in business travel, as the result of the ongoing recession, of about 15% in the second
quarter of 2009. In this case, an economic recession with annual growth rates dropping about 5% annually (Real GDP)
has three times the negative impact of a 40% increase in the price of oil. Increases in oil prices exert a negative influence
on travel to be certain, but it takes time for changes in crude prices to flow through to airline fares. Depending upon the
level of airfare increases, travelers may either internalize the increase or take it out of other trip spending categories (e.g.
stay in a 3 star rather than 4 star hotel). In either case, they will continue to travel. Moreover, the historic data suggests
that some or all of the increase in crude may never make their way through to airfares.
Parsing the data to examine certain geographic areas and their reaction to increases in oil prices:
107
Owing to the prevalence of short-haul travel, oil prices have little effect on arrivals in Western Europe.
Oil prices have the greatest influence in Eastern Europe and Latin America, where destinations are farther
apart and incomes are generally lower.
Oils effect on arrivals in North America and the Middle East fall somewhere in between. Travel distances are
farther, but the regions are helped by higher incomes.
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Africa
0.04%
0.59%
Eastern Europe
0.18%
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Western Europe
0.0%
0.07%
0.08%
0.04%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
108
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
Yes
20
4.47
20
4.47
No
427
95.53
447
100.00
109
Industry
Frequency
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
36
8.05
36
8.05
35
7.83
71
15.88
35
7.83
106
23.71
35
7.83
141
31.54
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Industry
Frequency
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
FIRE
50
11.19
191
42.73
Information
51
11.41
242
54.14
Manufacturing
50
11.19
292
65.32
50
11.19
342
76.51
Retail Trade
35
7.83
377
84.34
35
7.83
412
92.17
Wholesale Trade
35
7.83
447
100.00
The interviews requested interviews with company's Chief Financial Officer or Comptroller to get the person who is most
knowledgeable about a companies total business travel and entertainment budgets and expenditures.
The firms interviewed ranged from the small, with one employee, to the very large, with 8,000 employees. The average
firm in the survey had just over 50 employees.
Employment
Frequency
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
Less than 9
67
14.99
67
14.99
10 to 24
93
20.81
160
35.79
25 to 49
53
11.86
213
47.65
50 to 99
79
17.67
292
65.32
100 to 499
115
25.73
407
91.05
40
8.95
447
100.00
Size
Company revenues ranged from $500 to $200 billion, with an average of $7 million
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Revenue
Frequency
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
201
44.97
201
44.97
$1 to $9.99 million
103
23.04
304
68.01
83
18.57
387
86.58
60
13.42
447
100.00
Size
Companies spent anywhere from $100 to $248 million on business travel in 2007. Averaging the companies T&E
expenses, the surveyed companies are going to spend about 5% less on business travel in 2008 than they did in 2007
down to an average of just under $1 million.
Examining the travel expenses across industries, Professional and Business Services (PBS in the graph below), spent
more than $11,300 per employee on business travel, according to the survey results. Retail Trade (TRET) and
Construction (CON) industries each spent about $7,100 per employee on travel & entertainment expenses. Utilities
(TUTI) and Education and Health Services industries constituted the lowest T&E spending per employee, both industries
coming in at under $1,000. Overall, companies in the survey averaged around $4,850 in T&E spending per employee.
Industry
PBS
TRET
7,143.43
CON
7,079.20
LHS
5,325.13
MANU
5,281.25
TRAN
4,275.22
3,562.25
INF
TWST
3,298.14
FIRE
1,868.61
1,129.49
OTS
EHS
734.36
TUTI
120.38
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
111
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Another way to look at travel and entertainment spending is by looking at T&E spending as a percentage of revenue, as
done in the following graph. Companies in industries like Utilities, with its low spending per employee, spent very little on
T&E in our survey. Other industries where companies reported very little T&E spending in comparison to revenue
included Wholesale Trade (TWST), with 0.6% of revenue spent on travel and entertainment, Other Services (OTS),
Mining (MIN) and Construction (CON). Interestingly, the Construction industry spends over $7,000 per employee on
travel and entertainment but that is still a small percentage of overall revenue.
On the other end, companies in the Transportation industry (TRAN) and Professional and Business Services (PBS) spent
a much larger percentage of their revenue on travel and entertainment over 5.5%. Professional and Business Services
companies not only spend the highest amount per employee but also a large chunk of their revenue on travel and
entertainment, no doubt spending time meeting with client and prospecting for new business.
In the middle ground of T&E spending per revenue dollar are companies in industries in Finance (FIRE), Leisure and
Hospitality (LHS), Education and Health Services (EHS), Information (INF) and Retail Trade (TRET).
Industry
0.0%
0.6%
1.2%
1.5%
1.6%
1.9%
3.0%
3.4%
3.6%
3.9%
3.9%
5.6%
5.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
T&E % of Revenue
When asked about their 2009 travel and entertainment spending, by a margin of almost 5 to 1, companies say they will be
lowering business travel expenses in 2009.
112
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
34
7.61
34
7.61
153
34.23
187
41.83
Same
260
58.17
447
100.00
Of those firms who say their T&E expenses will be greater than 2008 in 2009, almost half of the companies stated that
increases in business, either domestic or international, were the cause of the growth. About 15% said training expenses
were the reason for the T&E increase while 30% felt travel inflation was the cause behind T&E expenses rising.
Those companies that plan on increasing T&E expenses in 2009 do not plan on breaking the bank on T&E. Over half
plan on increasing T&E by 10% or less and less than 25% plan on increasing T&E by more than 25%.
Over 40% of the firms whose T&E will be declining in 2009 stated the reason T&E is dropping is in response to tightening
economic/business conditions. Another 24% are cutting T&E due to cost containment measures with sales declines and
lower travel costs coming in as the next two cited reasons for lower T&E expenses in 2009.
Of those decreasing T&E expenses, over 80% of the reductions will be between 10 and 50%, with over 30% of the firms
planning on reducing T&E by over a third. These firms had $872 million in T&E expenses in 2008 and a reduction of 20%
would mean almost $175 million less in T&E spending in 2009 by these firms ALONE.
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
33
7.38
33
7.38
41
9.17
74
16.55
Individual Employees
364
81.43
438
97.99
Don't Know
1.34
444
99.33
Refused to Answer
0.67
447
100.00
In our survey, only about 17% of our companies have some sort of travel management handling travel arrangements, with
the majority of companies allowing individual employees to arrange travel themselves.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Not surprisingly, the largest two employment size classes include over 55% of the firms who employ outside travel
management functions. However, those with internal travel staff remained pretty constant across employment sizes.
Interestingly, even in the largest employment size class, the percentage of firms whose own employees or admin staff
makes their own travel arrangements was over 70% according to the survey.
Similar patterns were found examining the revenue size classes.
Examining travel management by industry, three industries have the overwhelming percentage of outside travel vendors
Manufacturing, Profession & Scientific Services and Information. There is less of a pattern examining the firms whose
travel management functions are in-house. Percentage-wise, Manufacturing and Education & Health Services are the
most likely to have travel management functions in-house. Only Manufacturing and Professional & Scientific Services
have over 30% of their travel managed.
When asked if their company has instituted a cost containment plan for T&E expenses for 2009, just over a quarter replied
in the affirmative.
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
117
26.17
117
26.17
327
73.15
444
99.33
Don't know
0.45
446
99.78
Refused answer
0.22
447
100.00
Of those companies with a cost containment plan, about 20% expect to get 0 to 5% savings out of their plan. Another
16% expect between 6 and 10% savings with a total of 70% of those firms instituting cost containment plans expected up
to a 25% savings from their plan.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Frequency
Percent
Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Percent
0 to 5%
23
19.66
23
19.66
6 to 10%
19
16.24
42
35.90
11 to 19%
7.69
51
43.59
20 to 25%
31
26.50
82
70.09
26 to 49%
6.84
90
76.92
27
23.08
117
100.00
Overall, the finding from the travel survey boost the results that have been presented in previous sections as the results
from the random survey when some metrics are compared, relay confidence in our previous analysis.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
In addition to quantifying and forecasting the U.S. business travel market, the
economic impact of the industry has also been analyzed. Previously, the U.S.
Business Travel Market was reviewed, which included not only the domestic
business travel market, but also the outbound international business travel
spend. When determining the economic impact of the U.S. business travel
market, the analysis must include a slightly different data set. The domestic
market spending is the same, but instead of including the domestic outbound
travel spend, the analysis includes the spending of those business travelers to
the U.S. who originated from international markets. As the domestic market
dominates in both scenarios, the total market size is similar for each
classification.
The total economic impact of travelers is separated into three distinct parts:
direct, indirect, and induced. The direct impacts represent the value added of those sectors that interact directly with the
visitor. The indirect impact represents the benefit to suppliers to those direct sectors. This would include, for example,
U.S. based food suppliers to a restaurant. The induced impact adds the impact of tourism-generated wages as they are
spent in the economy. The image of the iceberg represents the various impacts of tourism. Those industries that are part
of the direct tourism sector represent the impact that is visible, i.e., above the surface of the water. But below the surface,
traveler spending generates wages, employment, and taxes in a host of supporting industries. Although these are not
seen, they are critical to understanding the full economic impact of tourism in the United States.
The following chart defines some of the terms used in the economic impact analysis.
116
Economic Impact
The value added derived from the travel spending,\; the direct impact
represents the GDP contribution of the industry
Income Impact
Employment Impact
Direct Effect
Indirect Effect
Induced Effect
Value Added
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
(Value in billion $)
2008
Entertainment
31.6 -1.0
Accommodation
55.4
Transportation
101.1 1.6
Food
47.4
-0.9
Shopping
29.1
-0.3
Total
264.6 0.3
0.0
Food
18%
Entertainment
12%
Accommodation
21%
Transportation
38%
2008 saw a slight increase in total business travel spend, as the significant downturn in the fourth quarter was offset by
steady growth prior to that, especially in the international market, which was up 18.5% for the year and finished 2008 at
$37.6 billion. The domestic market, at $227 billion, was down 2% for the year.
The major categories shown above are aggregations of the details used to generate the economic impacts. In generating
the following impact results, the five major categories were split into 19 specific spending industries to best represent the
true end market for the business travel dollar.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Indirect Induced
Total
264.6
Travel Expenditures
133.1
91.4
93.9 318.4
Labor Income
76.7
56.0
55.0 187.7
Employment (Millions)
2.16
1.01
1.20
Economic Impact
4.37
79.5
Taxes
The direct economic impact, at $133 billion, represents just over 50% of the U.S. business travel expenditures.
The table below highlights the comparison the impact results from 2008 to 2007.
(Value in billion $ unless otherwise noted)
2008 2007
Economic Impact
Direct
Total
Labor Income
Direct
Total
76.7
76.5 0.2
Employment (millions)
Taxes
Direct
2.16
2.24 -3.2
Total
4.37
4.51 -3.0
79.5
81.5 -2.4
The 0.3% increase in 2008 travel expenditures resulted in a 0.1% increase in total economic impact. The resulting wages
paid out increased 0.2%. While wages increased 0.2% for the year, the employment supported by those wages fell 3%.
This was due to the fact that the average annual wage paid to business travel supported employees increased by 4%.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
45,000
Induced
40,000
Indirect
35,000
Direct
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Entertainment
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Bus. Services
FIRE
Transportation
0
Lodging
* Industry groupings shown represent nearly 80% of the $318B in total impact
The $133 billion direct economic impact is slightly above 50% of the total U.S. business traveler spend. As this is a
representation of the value added from that spending, the specific ratio of spending to value add varies by industry. Some
industries, like many in the entertainment field or hotels, generally generate over 60% value add compared to spending.
However, some major business travel spending categories result in much lower ratios, including air transportation at less
than 40%, and retail categories ranging from 12% to 33%. While the value add ratio for air transportation is fairly low, the
importance of the business traveler to the overall industry should not be overlooked. The $23.5 billion in value add, and
the $63.4 billion in economic output each make up around 39% of the total value add and output of the entire air
transportation industry, including passenger and cargo traffic. It should be noted that the total U.S. business travel
industry is larger than the GDP of all but 25 countries.
One note about the chart above is that while the largest economic impacts will be to the core business travel businesses
like hotels and transportation, the data illustrates the fact that certain industries either not directly involved in business
travel or with a much lower focus, see significant economic benefits because of the business travel industry. As can be
noticed by the plum colored sections of the bars, the Professional and Business Services sector (denoted by Bus.
Services) and Finance, Insurance & Real Estate (denoted by FIRE) receive significant economic benefits as suppliers to
the tourism industry. In fact, the $40.5 billion indirect impact to these two industries is nearly equal to the total impact from
the entire transportation industry.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
35,000
Induced
30,000
Indirect
25,000
Direct
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Entertainment
Retail Trade
FIRE
Lodging
Transportation
0
Bus. Services
The $188 billion in compensation is distributed much differently than the economic impact, as business services, owing to
its relatively higher compensation rates, generates the largest total impact.
The average annual wage for all business travel supported employees in 2008 was nearly $43,000, with the average
annual direct wage topping $35,400. The total annual wage is an increase of 4% compared to 2007, while the direct wage
is up nearly 5%.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
1.2
Induced
1.0
Indirect
Direct
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
FIRE
Entertainment
Retail Trade
Transportation
Bus. Services
Lodging
0.0
The impact of employment is much more dependent on those industries that directly touch the business traveler, with the
main direct impact related industries making up five of the top 6 categories. There is still a significant effect on those
industries with less of a direct focus, as the professional business services industry realizes an indirect employment
benefit that is nearly as large as the total employment impact in the entertainment industry.
As stated previously, the travel industry is really a composition of many other industries, but the economic impact model
enables the industry to be compared to traditional industry classifications. The table below shows the U.S. business travel
industry in relation to the other major industry classifications on an employment basis.
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IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Employment
2007-2008
(Millions)
Growth
Rank Industry
% of U.S.
15.82
2.8%
11.5%
Retail Trade
15.35
-1.1%
11.2%
11.49
0.3%
8.4%
Durable Manufacturing
8.47
-3.8%
6.2%
8.06
-4.3%
5.9%
7.83
2.2%
5.7%
Construction
7.21
-5.5%
5.3%
6.01
-1.9%
4.4%
Wholesale Trade
5.96
-0.9%
4.4%
10
Nondurable Manufacturing
4.95
-2.3%
3.6%
11
4.50
-0.8%
3.3%
12
Educational Services
3.04
3.3%
2.2%
13
2.13
-1.9%
1.6%
14
1.97
0.0%
1.4%
15
Other
11.75
0.0%
8.6%
Government
22.50
1.2%
16.4%
Total Nonfarm
137.05
-0.4%
100%
2.16
-3.2%
1.6%
Business Travel
As shown in the table above, if business travel were its own industry, it would be the 13th largest industry by employment
in the United States. Additionally, nearly 1 in 30 U.S. workers owes his job to the business travel industry (including direct
and induced employment).
122
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
2008 (Million)
Federal Government
Corporate Income
11,063.3
Personal Income
14,796.2
18,794.0
Federal Total
44,653.5
3,237.4
Personal Income
5,331.8
Sales
12,025.7
231.4
Property Taxes
10,769.4
Other Taxes
3,385.9
34,981.7
Total
79,507.2
In 2008, there were 117.5 million households. If the business travel industry were removed from the marketplace, the
government would need to collect an additional $380 per household to maintain its current level of receipts. At the state
and local level, each household would be required to generate an additional $298 annually in order for the state and local
governments to maintain their current level of receipts. In total, the business travel industry generates $678 in total tax
dollars for every household in the country.
123
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
124
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
4%
600
0%
500
-4%
400
-8%
300
-12%
200
-16%
100
1996
1999
2002
Person-Stays (mn)
2005
2008
Percent Change
125
12.0%
250
8.0%
200
4.0%
150
0.0%
100
-4.0%
50
-8.0%
0
1995
1998
Spending (bn$)
2001
2004
2007
Percent Change
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
LA
NYC
San Chicago DC
Fran
U.S. Business
San
Diego
60
U.S. Business
50
Percent (%)
40
U.S. Group
Business
30
U.S. Transient
Business
20
10
0
Day Trip
126
1-3 Nights
4-7 nights
8+ nights
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
80
70
60
Percent (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
Air
U.S. Business
Auto
U.S. Group Business
Other
U.S. Transient Business
60
50
Percent (%)
40
30
20
10
0
100 miles 101-300
or less
miles
U.S. Business
501-700
miles
7011000
miles
1001+
miles
Percent (%)
301-500
miles
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
300 miles or
less
U.S. Business
127
301-750 miles
751-1000 miles
1001+ miles
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
$900
Group
Transient
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
Total Business
$800
$200
$100
$0
LA
DC
Boston
2002-2004
$900
2005-2007
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Convention Training Consulting Inspect/ Const'n/ Sales/
Gov't/
Audit
Repair Purchasing Military
128
Other
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
5%
8%
37%
11%
19%
20%
Transportation
Shopping
Food
Entertainment
Room
Miscellaneous
25
20
Percent (%)
15
10
5
0
None
1-3
nights
U.S. Business
129
4-7
nights
8-14
nights
15-21
nights
22-28
nights
29+
nights
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
$1,400
$600
2002-2004
2005-2007
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$400
$200
$0
Non-Paid
(Net)
Paid (Net)
High-End
Hotel
Mid-Level
Hotel
Economy
Hotel
Other
25
Percent (%)
20
15
10
5
0
None
800number
U.S. Business
130
Direct
Corp.
Travel
Travel Dep't Agent
Hotel
Other
Website Website
Other
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
25%
26%
18-34 Years
35-54 Years
55 Years and
Older
49%
Percentage (%)
GenX (19651980)
Boomers
(1946-1964)
Silent (19301945)
33%
34%
Under $50,000
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000 or Higher
15%
131
18%
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Percent (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
No Children
132
5 years
old or
younger
6-9 years
old
10-12
years old
13-17
years old
IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009