Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
C O M M A J O B N o : 160982
READER
S U B J E C T: U S A M E O S T E M P L AT E :
D O C U M E N T N A M E : 160982 USA Q404 COVER
S TO R E D : A U G U S T PA G E N o : 1
T Y P E FA C E S : H E LV N E U E , VA R I O U S D AT E : 1 8 . 0 8 . 0 4
DESIGNER/OPERATOR
PROOF: FIRST PROOF SIZE: 80%
P U B L I C AT I O N : N / A
SIZE: 11” x 8.5” SCREEN:
P U B L I C AT I O N D AT E : N / A COLOUR DEADLINE:
12 Dorset Street • London W1U 6QS • Tel 020 7935 4554 • Fax 020 7935 4204 • ISDN 020 7224 1325
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Contents
United States Employment Outlook 2
The Americas Employment Outlook 14
Global Employment Outlook 16
About the Survey 18
About Manpower 19
30
25
20
15
10
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
2
According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers in the Employers across the 10 industry sectors are more
majority of industry sectors surveyed expect to hold steady, confident about hiring in the fourth quarter of this year,
predicting a hiring pace similar to third quarter. These sectors compared with the same period of 2003. Year-over-year
include Mining, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, hiring plans show the most improvement in the Durable and
Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/ Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade,
Insurance/Real Estate, Services and Public Administration. Education, Transportation/Public Utilities and Mining sectors.
Durable Goods Manufacturers are slightly more optimistic
about hiring in the fourth quarter, compared with the July to
September period. Construction and Education are the only
sectors for which employers anticipate softer job prospects.
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.
Across the country, employer confidence is expected to Northeast, Midwest and West voice hiring intentions that
remain virtually unchanged in the fourth quarter, with are twice as strong as the fourth quarter of 2003.
each of the four U.S. regions reporting employment Among the U.S. regions, the employment outlook is
activity consistent with the previous quarter. Job seekers most positive in the West and weakest in the Northeast.
in each region can expect to have a much easier time This marks the third consecutive quarter that the
with their search than a year ago. Employers in the Northeast has lagged other regions in hiring plans.
3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Regional Comparisons
Midwest
Of the employers surveyed in the Midwest, 26% plan to Transportation/Public Utilities and Finance/Insurance/Real
add to their payrolls in the fourth quarter, while 7% expect Estate employers anticipate a slightly more positive
to slow down the hiring pace. Thus, the Net Employment outlook than the July to September period, while those
Outlook is 19%. According to the seasonally adjusted in Construction and Education foresee a mild decrease in
data, job prospects for fourth quarter reveal a mounting employment activity.
optimism among Midwest employers that began in the
The job climate reported for the fourth quarter is decidedly
final months of 2003.
more upbeat than it was a year ago with stronger hiring
The hiring pace is expected to remain steady with planned in each of the 10 industry sectors in the Midwest.
projections similar to third quarter in half of the industry Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
sectors in the Midwest, including Non-Durable Goods Transportation/Public Utilities and Mining employers
Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services, Public foresee the most significant increase in hiring activity.
Administration and Mining. Durable Goods Manufacturing,
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio,
South Dakota, Wisconsin.
4
Northeast
Twenty-seven percent of employers polled in the Northeast Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing,
anticipate an increase in job opportunities, while 8% Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real
foresee a decrease. This yields a Net Employment Estate and Services, plan to keep the hiring pace
Outlook of 19%. When seasonal variations have been relatively consistent with last quarter. Job opportunities
removed from the data, the outlook for the Northeast is appear stronger than third quarter in Non-Durable Goods
the same as it was for third quarter but is twice as Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Mining, while
optimistic as it was a year ago. Although a healthy hiring Public Administration and Education employers expect
pace is in store for the Northeast, this region continues job prospects to soften.
to lag the others, as it has in the past two quarters.
Compared with a year ago, more employers in nearly every
Employers in the Northeast have mixed intentions for industry sector surveyed intend to add to their payrolls
fourth quarter when it comes to jobs within the industry during the fourth quarter. Mining is the only sector in which
sectors. Employers in the majority of sectors, including employers do not expect to pick up the hiring pace.
30
25
20
15
10
-5
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.
5
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
South
Of the employers surveyed in the South, 29% predict an Job seekers in the South are likely to fare better in their
increase in employment activity and 7% plan to cut back job search than they would have a year ago. Within the
on staff, which leads to a Net Employment Outlook of sectors surveyed there is a dramatic increase in the
22%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the outlook for the number of employers that plan to add staff from October
South is relatively consistent with third quarter hiring to December, compared with the fourth quarter of 2003.
projections and marks a moderate improvement over the These sectors include Durable and Non-Durable Goods
hiring pace that was anticipated a year ago. Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Education, Services and Mining.
Employers in five of the 10 industry sectors in the South
Construction and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
plan to carry a similar level of employment activity from third
employers also plan to boost hiring, albeit at a slower
quarter into fourth quarter. Durable Goods Manufacturers
pace. Public Administration is the only sector in which
foresee a mild uptick in hiring from the previous quarter,
year-over-year hiring increases are not expected.
while Construction, Education, Public Administration and
Mining employers expect to be more sluggish in their
hiring than they were from July to September.
30
25
20
15
10
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
6
West
In the West, 30% of employers surveyed anticipate job Employers in the West envision the same pattern of job
growth, while 9% foresee a decrease in employment stability seen in the other three U.S. regions. Hiring in
activity. This results in a Net Employment Outlook of five of the 10 industry sectors surveyed is expected to
21%. According to the seasonally adjusted survey remain consistent with third quarter plans. Those
results, the outlook is identical to the third quarter sectors include Durable Goods Manufacturing,
forecast and represents a plateau in hiring plans in the Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real
West, which had steadily improved over the past four Estate, Education and Services. Job prospects in
quarters. Nonetheless, employers in the West are more Construction, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and
optimistic about fourth quarter hiring than those in the Public Administration are expected to be stronger than
other three U.S. regions. They are also twice as they were from July to September. Wholesale/Retail
optimistic as they were last year at this time. Trade and Mining employers are more reserved in their
hiring forecast and anticipate slower job growth.
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,
Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Sector Comparisons
The seasonally adjusted outlook reveals some variation Education employers are more conservative in their
in hiring plans across the 10 industry sectors surveyed. hiring intentions than those in other sectors. The job
For the final quarter of 2004, employers in Durable and climate in Public Administration is expected to be the
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail mildest of the industry sectors, as it has been all year.
Trade express the most optimistic hiring plans.
Construction 12
19
Education 18
12
19
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
19
20
Manufacturing – Durables
23
20
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
22
19
Mining 19
3
Public Administration 8
16
Services 20
20
Transportation & Public Utilities 18
32
Wholesale & Retail Trade 22
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
8
Construction
Hiring confidence among Construction employers began The South has offered the most promising job prospects
to mount in the final months of 2003. The optimism in Construction since second quarter 2002, but
continued through the second quarter of this year but employers in the West are most optimistic about adding
dropped off in the third quarter survey. A slower hiring to their payrolls in the fourth quarter. Employers in the
pace is anticipated again in the fourth quarter, although Northeast foresee the slowest hiring pace in this sector.
job seekers should expect to find more employers
taking on new staff than a year ago.
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-20
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Education
Hiring expectations among Education employers have Hiring intentions in Education are strongest in the South
been on the rise since the fourth quarter of 2003, but the and weakest in the Midwest, as was the case in the
seasonally adjusted outlook for the fourth quarter of this third quarter.
year breaks that trend. Employers are slightly less
confident about hiring than they were from July to
September. The fourth quarter job forecast is, however,
considerably brighter than last year at this time.
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
25
20
15
10
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
10
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
The employment outlook for Non-Durable Goods Employers in the West are most optimistic about hiring.
Manufacturing suggests a healthy hiring pace not seen Compared with the other regions, employers in the
in four years, according to seasonally adjusted data. South are least likely to take on staff.
Employer confidence is similar to third quarter
projections and remarkably improved from last year.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
Mining
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Employers in the South plan to offer the most promising
hiring intentions for the Mining sector are expected to be job prospects. Although employers in the Northeast
relatively consistent with those reported for third quarter. report the weakest employment outlook, some hiring is
Compared with a year ago, job seekers are likely to find expected for the first time in two quarters.
significantly more employers accepting applications.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Public Administration
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Public Administration By a wide margin, employers in the West express the
remains a picture of stability on the hiring front. The most confidence about staff additions in the fourth
employment outlook for the coming quarter is identical quarter, while employers in the Northeast report the
to those reported for the last two quarters and most conservative hiring plans.
represents a slight increase in employment activity from
a year ago. For the fourth consecutive quarter, hiring in
Public Administration is expected to lag behind the other
nine sectors.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Services
The survey’s historical data shows that demand for Employers in the West and South express the most
Services employees typically dwindles in the fourth confidence about hiring for the fourth quarter, while
quarter. When seasonal variations are removed from the those in the Midwest and Northeast are more reserved
data, however, the hiring pace for fourth quarter remains in their staffing plans.
relatively stable compared to those reported in the third
quarter. Services employers report a more favorable
outlook than last year at this time.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
12
Transportation & Public Utilities
In the fourth quarter, Transportation/Public Utilities The regional hiring breakout is unchanged from last
employers plan to hire at the same steady pace as they quarter. Employers in the West are most optimistic about
did for the third quarter, according to the seasonally hiring, while those in the Northeast and South are much
adjusted data. A year ago, the employment outlook for more reserved.
this sector was weaker by a wide margin, with far fewer
employers predicting job growth.
25
20
15
10
5
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-15
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
International Comparisons
Based on seasonally adjusted data, employers in the employers reported their most optimistic outlook since
United States reported the region’s most optimistic Net Manpower began the survey in the country. When
Employment Outlook, revealing a continuation of the seasonal variations are removed from the Canadian
active hiring levels reported for the previous two data, the outlook is also improved on a quarter-over-
quarters. Hiring intentions are improved both quarter- quarter and year-over-year basis.
over-quarter and year-over-year in Mexico, where
Seasonal adjustments were introduced to the Canadian year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over
data for the first time this quarter to provide additional time. Comparing the data over time, we see a
insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it continuation of positive hiring activity moving from the
possible to review the data without the employment third quarter into the final three months of the year.
fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004
1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity
for the United States and Canada.
14
Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net both sectors intend to decrease employment levels.
Employment Outlook across two broad categories: In contrast, Mexican employers in both the Industry
2
Industry and Services . Positive hiring intentions are and Services sectors intend to increase employment
expected across the region in both the Industry and prospects over the third quarter. On a year-over-year
Services categories. However, compared to the basis, employers in all three countries are anticipating
previous quarter, Canadian and American employers in hiring levels to improve.
2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.
15
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
16
Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net Similarly, in the Industry category, job prospects are
Employment Outlook across two broad categories: expected to be positive in all countries with only
2
Industry and Services . All of the countries surveyed, Germany and Italy reporting a negative Net Employment
except Germany and Italy, are anticipating positive Outlook. Strongest prospects for Industry are
hiring activity in both categories. Employers in the anticipated for the third consecutive quarter in New
Services category in New Zealand, Hong Kong and Zealand. Notably, Industry employers in Ireland reported
the United States are most optimistic, while employers the most improved year-over-year Net Employment
in Germany and Italy are less positive. Outlook increase of +23 percentage points.
2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport, Storage & Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services, and Public Administration.
17
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
18
History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
employment services industry, offering customers a continuum of
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of services to meet their needs throughout the employment and
the United States survey, naming the report the business cycle. The company specializes in permanent,
Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment;
adopts the same forward-looking research format as the training; career transition and organizational consulting services.
United States survey and is the first of its kind in Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries
Europe. and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook 400,000 customers per year, including small and medium size
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world’s largest
Research methodology is updated to evolve with multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower’s work is on
advancements in the field of market research. raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research business activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, the
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and company operates under the brand names of Right
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries. Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan, Brook Street
and Empower. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
www.manpower.com.
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of
Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial
Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower
Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Professional brand, the company places contract professionals
on assignment in areas such as information technology,
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
information about Manpower’s US operation can be found at
www.us.manpower.com.
19
4th Quarter 2004
C O M M A J O B N o : 160982
READER
S U B J E C T: U S A M E O S T E M P L AT E :
D O C U M E N T N A M E : 160982 USA Q404 COVER
S TO R E D : A U G U S T PA G E N o : 1
T Y P E FA C E S : H E LV N E U E , VA R I O U S D AT E : 1 8 . 0 8 . 0 4
DESIGNER/OPERATOR
PROOF: FIRST PROOF SIZE: 80%
P U B L I C AT I O N : N / A
SIZE: 11” x 8.5” SCREEN:
P U B L I C AT I O N D AT E : N / A COLOUR DEADLINE:
12 Dorset Street • London W1U 6QS • Tel 020 7935 4554 • Fax 020 7935 4204 • ISDN 020 7224 1325