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4th Quarter 2004

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey


United States

Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217


Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Contents
United States Employment Outlook 2
The Americas Employment Outlook 14
Global Employment Outlook 16
About the Survey 18
About Manpower 19

The United States Employment Outlook


Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with The Net Employment Outlook of 21%, which does not
employers across the United States to measure take into account the seasonal factors that affect hiring,
anticipated employment trends between October and is slightly lower than it was in the third quarter survey.
December 2004. All participants were asked, “How do When the seasonal variations are removed from the data,
you anticipate total employment at your location to however, the employment outlook for October to December
change in the three months to the end of December is the same as it was in the previous two quarters, an
2004 as compared to the current quarter?” indication that employers intend to keep hiring stable
through the end of the year. Like the previous two
Of the U.S. employers that were surveyed, 28% plan to
quarters, the job forecast is stronger than it has been
add staff in the fourth quarter, while 7% expect to
since the beginning months of 2001.
reduce their payrolls. This creates a Net Employment
Outlook of 21%. Sixty percent of the hiring managers Hiring projections are noticeably different from a year
polled anticipate no change in staff levels for the coming ago. Employers are twice as optimistic about their hiring
quarter, and 5% are unsure of their hiring plans. plans for the fourth quarter of 2004 as they were last
year at this time.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
4th Quarter 2003 22 11 62 5 11 10
1st Quarter 2004 20 13 61 6 7 14
2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20
3rd Quarter 2004 30 6 59 5 24 20
4th Quarter 2004 28 7 60 5 21 20

30

25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
2
According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers in the Employers across the 10 industry sectors are more
majority of industry sectors surveyed expect to hold steady, confident about hiring in the fourth quarter of this year,
predicting a hiring pace similar to third quarter. These sectors compared with the same period of 2003. Year-over-year
include Mining, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, hiring plans show the most improvement in the Durable and
Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/ Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade,
Insurance/Real Estate, Services and Public Administration. Education, Transportation/Public Utilities and Mining sectors.
Durable Goods Manufacturers are slightly more optimistic
about hiring in the fourth quarter, compared with the July to
September period. Construction and Education are the only
sectors for which employers anticipate softer job prospects.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Construction 24 12 59 5 12 19
Education 25 7 64 4 18 12
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 23 4 68 5 19 19
Manufacturing – Durables 29 9 57 5 20 23
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 27 7 60 6 20 22
Mining 25 6 65 4 19 19
Public Administration 14 11 68 7 3 8
Services 24 8 63 5 16 20
Transportation & Public Utilities 25 5 64 6 20 18
Wholesale & Retail Trade 38 6 51 5 32 22

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

Across the country, employer confidence is expected to Northeast, Midwest and West voice hiring intentions that
remain virtually unchanged in the fourth quarter, with are twice as strong as the fourth quarter of 2003.
each of the four U.S. regions reporting employment Among the U.S. regions, the employment outlook is
activity consistent with the previous quarter. Job seekers most positive in the West and weakest in the Northeast.
in each region can expect to have a much easier time This marks the third consecutive quarter that the
with their search than a year ago. Employers in the Northeast has lagged other regions in hiring plans.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Midwest 26 7 64 3 19 20
Northeast 27 8 59 6 19 18
South 29 7 58 6 22 21
West 30 9 55 6 21 22

3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Regional Comparisons
Midwest
Of the employers surveyed in the Midwest, 26% plan to Transportation/Public Utilities and Finance/Insurance/Real
add to their payrolls in the fourth quarter, while 7% expect Estate employers anticipate a slightly more positive
to slow down the hiring pace. Thus, the Net Employment outlook than the July to September period, while those
Outlook is 19%. According to the seasonally adjusted in Construction and Education foresee a mild decrease in
data, job prospects for fourth quarter reveal a mounting employment activity.
optimism among Midwest employers that began in the
The job climate reported for the fourth quarter is decidedly
final months of 2003.
more upbeat than it was a year ago with stronger hiring
The hiring pace is expected to remain steady with planned in each of the 10 industry sectors in the Midwest.
projections similar to third quarter in half of the industry Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
sectors in the Midwest, including Non-Durable Goods Transportation/Public Utilities and Mining employers
Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services, Public foresee the most significant increase in hiring activity.
Administration and Mining. Durable Goods Manufacturing,

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 26 7 64 3 19 20
Construction 21 19 56 4 2 18
Education 18 6 73 3 12 6
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 3 74 3 17 17
Manufacturing – Durables 27 8 62 3 19 23
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 25 6 64 5 19 21
Mining 29 14 57 0 15 16
Public Administration 11 17 68 4 -6 4
Services 21 7 69 3 14 18
Transportation & Public Utilities 26 5 67 2 21 22
Wholesale & Retail Trade 36 6 55 3 30 20

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio,
South Dakota, Wisconsin.

4
Northeast
Twenty-seven percent of employers polled in the Northeast Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing,
anticipate an increase in job opportunities, while 8% Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real
foresee a decrease. This yields a Net Employment Estate and Services, plan to keep the hiring pace
Outlook of 19%. When seasonal variations have been relatively consistent with last quarter. Job opportunities
removed from the data, the outlook for the Northeast is appear stronger than third quarter in Non-Durable Goods
the same as it was for third quarter but is twice as Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Mining, while
optimistic as it was a year ago. Although a healthy hiring Public Administration and Education employers expect
pace is in store for the Northeast, this region continues job prospects to soften.
to lag the others, as it has in the past two quarters.
Compared with a year ago, more employers in nearly every
Employers in the Northeast have mixed intentions for industry sector surveyed intend to add to their payrolls
fourth quarter when it comes to jobs within the industry during the fourth quarter. Mining is the only sector in which
sectors. Employers in the majority of sectors, including employers do not expect to pick up the hiring pace.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Seasonally


Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 27 8 59 6 19 18
Construction 22 9 62 7 13 16
Education 24 5 69 2 19 13
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 26 6 62 6 20 21
Manufacturing – Durables 28 7 58 7 21 21
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 26 6 62 6 20 22
Mining 25 0 75 0 25 15
Public Administration 9 9 74 8 0 3
Services 22 9 62 7 13 18
Transportation & Public Utilities 25 7 62 6 18 16
Wholesale & Retail Trade 38 8 49 5 30 21

30

25

20

15

10

-5
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.

5
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

South
Of the employers surveyed in the South, 29% predict an Job seekers in the South are likely to fare better in their
increase in employment activity and 7% plan to cut back job search than they would have a year ago. Within the
on staff, which leads to a Net Employment Outlook of sectors surveyed there is a dramatic increase in the
22%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the outlook for the number of employers that plan to add staff from October
South is relatively consistent with third quarter hiring to December, compared with the fourth quarter of 2003.
projections and marks a moderate improvement over the These sectors include Durable and Non-Durable Goods
hiring pace that was anticipated a year ago. Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Education, Services and Mining.
Employers in five of the 10 industry sectors in the South
Construction and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
plan to carry a similar level of employment activity from third
employers also plan to boost hiring, albeit at a slower
quarter into fourth quarter. Durable Goods Manufacturers
pace. Public Administration is the only sector in which
foresee a mild uptick in hiring from the previous quarter,
year-over-year hiring increases are not expected.
while Construction, Education, Public Administration and
Mining employers expect to be more sluggish in their
hiring than they were from July to September.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 7 58 6 22 21
Construction 25 8 62 5 17 22
Education 29 3 63 5 26 20
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 21 4 68 7 17 18
Manufacturing – Durables 29 10 56 5 19 22
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 26 7 61 6 19 20
Mining 27 6 61 6 21 19
Public Administration 15 9 65 11 6 9
Services 27 7 61 5 20 23
Transportation & Public Utilities 22 4 67 7 18 16
Wholesale & Retail Trade 41 5 48 6 36 25

30

25

20

15

10

0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

6
West
In the West, 30% of employers surveyed anticipate job Employers in the West envision the same pattern of job
growth, while 9% foresee a decrease in employment stability seen in the other three U.S. regions. Hiring in
activity. This results in a Net Employment Outlook of five of the 10 industry sectors surveyed is expected to
21%. According to the seasonally adjusted survey remain consistent with third quarter plans. Those
results, the outlook is identical to the third quarter sectors include Durable Goods Manufacturing,
forecast and represents a plateau in hiring plans in the Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real
West, which had steadily improved over the past four Estate, Education and Services. Job prospects in
quarters. Nonetheless, employers in the West are more Construction, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and
optimistic about fourth quarter hiring than those in the Public Administration are expected to be stronger than
other three U.S. regions. They are also twice as they were from July to September. Wholesale/Retail
optimistic as they were last year at this time. Trade and Mining employers are more reserved in their
hiring forecast and anticipate slower job growth.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 30 9 55 6 21 22
Construction 29 9 57 5 20 26
Education 28 14 54 4 14 11
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 29 6 59 6 23 23
Manufacturing – Durables 35 10 48 7 25 29
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 31 10 52 7 21 24
Mining 18 6 76 0 12 16
Public Administration 22 9 65 4 13 16
Services 29 9 55 7 20 23
Transportation & Public Utilities 28 3 59 10 25 23
Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 8 53 5 26 20

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,
Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Sector Comparisons
The seasonally adjusted outlook reveals some variation Education employers are more conservative in their
in hiring plans across the 10 industry sectors surveyed. hiring intentions than those in other sectors. The job
For the final quarter of 2004, employers in Durable and climate in Public Administration is expected to be the
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail mildest of the industry sectors, as it has been all year.
Trade express the most optimistic hiring plans.

Construction 12
19

Education 18
12
19
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
19
20
Manufacturing – Durables
23
20
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
22
19
Mining 19
3
Public Administration 8
16
Services 20
20
Transportation & Public Utilities 18
32
Wholesale & Retail Trade 22

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

8
Construction
Hiring confidence among Construction employers began The South has offered the most promising job prospects
to mount in the final months of 2003. The optimism in Construction since second quarter 2002, but
continued through the second quarter of this year but employers in the West are most optimistic about adding
dropped off in the third quarter survey. A slower hiring to their payrolls in the fourth quarter. Employers in the
pace is anticipated again in the fourth quarter, although Northeast foresee the slowest hiring pace in this sector.
job seekers should expect to find more employers
taking on new staff than a year ago.

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-20
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Education
Hiring expectations among Education employers have Hiring intentions in Education are strongest in the South
been on the rise since the fourth quarter of 2003, but the and weakest in the Midwest, as was the case in the
seasonally adjusted outlook for the fourth quarter of this third quarter.
year breaks that trend. Employers are slightly less
confident about hiring than they were from July to
September. The fourth quarter job forecast is, however,
considerably brighter than last year at this time.

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate


Steady hiring intentions are apparent again this quarter For the fourth consecutive quarter, employers in the
in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sector, according West are most optimistic about hiring, while those in
to the seasonally adjusted survey results. Employers the Midwest are least likely to take on staff.
expect to hire at the same pace as third quarter, which
was the strongest hiring outlook in more than three years.
A year-over-year comparison shows that employment
prospects are more encouraging for the coming quarter.

25

20

15

10

0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

Manufacturing – Durable Goods


The seasonally adjusted data suggests that Durable Job seekers in the West are likely to have the best
Goods Manufacturers remain confident about the job employment prospects, while those in the Northeast
picture. For the first time in four years, the employment are expected to find fewer companies adding to payroll.
outlook in Durable Goods Manufacturing is the most
positive among the 10 sectors. The hiring pace is
expected to be up slightly from last quarter and
considerably better than a year ago.

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

10
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
The employment outlook for Non-Durable Goods Employers in the West are most optimistic about hiring.
Manufacturing suggests a healthy hiring pace not seen Compared with the other regions, employers in the
in four years, according to seasonally adjusted data. South are least likely to take on staff.
Employer confidence is similar to third quarter
projections and remarkably improved from last year.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

Mining
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Employers in the South plan to offer the most promising
hiring intentions for the Mining sector are expected to be job prospects. Although employers in the Northeast
relatively consistent with those reported for third quarter. report the weakest employment outlook, some hiring is
Compared with a year ago, job seekers are likely to find expected for the first time in two quarters.
significantly more employers accepting applications.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Public Administration
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Public Administration By a wide margin, employers in the West express the
remains a picture of stability on the hiring front. The most confidence about staff additions in the fourth
employment outlook for the coming quarter is identical quarter, while employers in the Northeast report the
to those reported for the last two quarters and most conservative hiring plans.
represents a slight increase in employment activity from
a year ago. For the fourth consecutive quarter, hiring in
Public Administration is expected to lag behind the other
nine sectors.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Services
The survey’s historical data shows that demand for Employers in the West and South express the most
Services employees typically dwindles in the fourth confidence about hiring for the fourth quarter, while
quarter. When seasonal variations are removed from the those in the Midwest and Northeast are more reserved
data, however, the hiring pace for fourth quarter remains in their staffing plans.
relatively stable compared to those reported in the third
quarter. Services employers report a more favorable
outlook than last year at this time.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

12
Transportation & Public Utilities
In the fourth quarter, Transportation/Public Utilities The regional hiring breakout is unchanged from last
employers plan to hire at the same steady pace as they quarter. Employers in the West are most optimistic about
did for the third quarter, according to the seasonally hiring, while those in the Northeast and South are much
adjusted data. A year ago, the employment outlook for more reserved.
this sector was weaker by a wide margin, with far fewer
employers predicting job growth.

25
20
15
10
5
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Wholesale & Retail Trade


Hiring activity in Wholesale/Retail Trade is expected to Employers report relatively consistent hiring plans across
be among the strongest of the 10 industry sectors. the regions. Job seekers in the South are likely to find
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the most employers in need of additional staff, and those
the employment outlook remains unchanged from third in the West and Midwest are expected to have fewer
quarter. Compared with a year ago, employers are companies to choose from.
notably more upbeat about staffing plans.

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-15
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

The Americas Employment Outlook


Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure anticipated
employment trends between October and December 2004.

International Comparisons
Based on seasonally adjusted data, employers in the employers reported their most optimistic outlook since
United States reported the region’s most optimistic Net Manpower began the survey in the country. When
Employment Outlook, revealing a continuation of the seasonal variations are removed from the Canadian
active hiring levels reported for the previous two data, the outlook is also improved on a quarter-over-
quarters. Hiring intentions are improved both quarter- quarter and year-over-year basis.
over-quarter and year-over-year in Mexico, where

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook


% % % % %
Canada 23 10 63 4 13 (17)1
Mexico 30 12 58 0 18
United States 28 7 60 5 21 (20)1

Seasonal adjustments were introduced to the Canadian year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over
data for the first time this quarter to provide additional time. Comparing the data over time, we see a
insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it continuation of positive hiring activity moving from the
possible to review the data without the employment third quarter into the final three months of the year.
fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004

Canada (Seasonally Adjusted) Mexico United States (Seasonally Adjusted)

1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity
for the United States and Canada.

14
Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net both sectors intend to decrease employment levels.
Employment Outlook across two broad categories: In contrast, Mexican employers in both the Industry
2
Industry and Services . Positive hiring intentions are and Services sectors intend to increase employment
expected across the region in both the Industry and prospects over the third quarter. On a year-over-year
Services categories. However, compared to the basis, employers in all three countries are anticipating
previous quarter, Canadian and American employers in hiring levels to improve.

Net Employment Outlook


Industry Services
Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004
% % % %
Canada 23 5 26 16
Mexico 16 17 14 19
United States 26 18 24 22

2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.

15
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Global Employment Outlook


Over 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated
employment trends between October and December 2004.

Regional and International Comparisons


Employers in 17 of 19 countries and territories say they However, German employer confidence has improved
expect positive hiring activity in the coming quarter, with since the last quarter of 2003.
14 countries reporting stronger hiring levels compared
In the U.S., Canada and the UK, seasonally adjusted
to one year ago. New Zealand and Hong Kong
results reveal continuing employer optimism and solid
employers reported the strongest anticipated hiring
hiring levels.
trends for the quarter ahead. Italy joins Germany this
quarter with a negative Net Employment Outlook.

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change


Americas Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 to Q4 2004
% %
Canada 25 (14)1 13 (17)1 -12 (3)1
Mexico 14 18 4
United States 24 (20)1 21 (20)1 -3 (0)1

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change


Asia Pacific Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 to Q4 2004
% %
Australia 17 17 0
Hong Kong 23 25 2
Japan 9 11 2
New Zealand 30 29 -1
Singapore 19 14 -5

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change


Europe Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 to Q4 2004
% %
Austria 2 4 2
Belgium 11 7 -4
France 4 5 1
Germany -4 -2 2
Ireland 18 14 -4
Italy 5 -1 -6
Netherlands 6 6 0
Norway 10 7 -3
Spain 14 5 -9
Sweden 16 9 -7
UK 14 (12)1 18 (14)1 4 (2)1
1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for the UK,
the United States and Canada.

16
Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net Similarly, in the Industry category, job prospects are
Employment Outlook across two broad categories: expected to be positive in all countries with only
2
Industry and Services . All of the countries surveyed, Germany and Italy reporting a negative Net Employment
except Germany and Italy, are anticipating positive Outlook. Strongest prospects for Industry are
hiring activity in both categories. Employers in the anticipated for the third consecutive quarter in New
Services category in New Zealand, Hong Kong and Zealand. Notably, Industry employers in Ireland reported
the United States are most optimistic, while employers the most improved year-over-year Net Employment
in Germany and Italy are less positive. Outlook increase of +23 percentage points.

Net Employment Outlook


Industry Services
Americas Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004
% % % %
Canada 23 5 26 16
Mexico 16 17 14 19
United States 26 18 24 22

Net Employment Outlook


Industry Services
Asia Pacific Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004
% % % %
Australia 16 14 17 18
Hong Kong 13 12 28 30
Japan 6 11 11 11
New Zealand 27 28 32 34
Singapore 9 15 22 12

Net Employment Outlook


Industry Services
Europe Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004
% % % %
Austria 1 2 2 4
Belgium 9 5 11 7
France 2 2 5 6
Germany -4 -4 -3 -1
Ireland 17 13 21 13
Italy 3 -3 7 0
Netherlands 8 6 6 6
Norway 10 6 10 8
Spain 5 9 19 4
Sweden 22 11 15 9
UK 14 16 13 19

2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport, Storage & Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services, and Public Administration.

17
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

About the Survey Survey Question


All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or
at your location to change in the three months to the end of
decrease the number of employees in their workforce during
December 2004 as compared to the current quarter?”
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40
years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment
activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of Net Employment Outlook
the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
of focus.
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.
only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys
and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what Seasonal Adjustment
occurred in the past. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived Canada, the United States and United Kingdom to provide
all of its information from a single question. additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments
make it possible to review the data without the employment
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year,
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other
Manpower’s customer base.
countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled.
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than
35,000 public and private employers across 19 national Sectors
economies to measure anticipated employment trends each The industry sectors that are reported for each country in this
quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across report are representative of the local economy. In some areas
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. of the report, we have reported the data in two broad sector
categories: Industry and Services. These categories are
Methodology consistent with standards of other respected international data
sources. The “Industry” category includes sectors such as:
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using
construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The
a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
“Services” category includes wholesale and retail trade;
standards in market research. The research team for the 19
restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;
countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted
communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other business
includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Organization
services and public administration.
Research and Analysis Division of Right Management
Consultants – an independent operating division of Manpower
Inc.; NOP World and Grupo IDM. The survey has been
structured to be representative of each national economy. The
margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not
greater than +/- 4.2%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted by


Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the
margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

18
History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
employment services industry, offering customers a continuum of
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of services to meet their needs throughout the employment and
the United States survey, naming the report the business cycle. The company specializes in permanent,
Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment;
adopts the same forward-looking research format as the training; career transition and organizational consulting services.
United States survey and is the first of its kind in Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries
Europe. and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook 400,000 customers per year, including small and medium size
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world’s largest
Research methodology is updated to evolve with multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower’s work is on
advancements in the field of market research. raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research business activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, the
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and company operates under the brand names of Right
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries. Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan, Brook Street
and Empower. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
www.manpower.com.
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of
Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial
Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower
Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Professional brand, the company places contract professionals
on assignment in areas such as information technology,
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
information about Manpower’s US operation can be found at
www.us.manpower.com.

19
4th Quarter 2004

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey


United States

Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217


Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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