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HOLD
Rating
Ticker
AP
44.40
Current Price
44.95
The postponement of the 150MW expansion project will result to a 6.5% reduction in APs 2018
profits. It will also lead to a 1.8% reduction in our FV estimate to Php44.40/sh.
Upside (%)
-1.22
Power generation capacity to still register healthy growth. Despite its decision not to push
through with the expansion of the Davao coal plant, AP still has many growth projects in the pipeline,
including the 68 MW Manolo-Fortich Hydroelectric Project, the 300MW Cebu Coal Project, the
300MW Subic coal Project and the 400MW Pagbilao expansion Project. Combined, APs beneficial
power generation capacity will still increase by 600MW by 2019, representing 24% of APs current
power generation capacity.
Reiterate HOLD rating. We reiterate our HOLD rating on AP. Fundamentally, we like AP given
its plans to expand its power generation portfolio, allowing it to capitalize on the favorable growth
prospect of the country. However, at APs current price of Php44.95/sh, the stock is already fairly
valued as it is trading at a slight premium to our revised FV estimate of Php44.40.
120
110
100
90
80
8-Apr-16
8-May-16
AP
8-Jun-16
8-Jul-16
PSEi
ABSOLUTE PERFORMANCE
AP
PSEi
FORECAST SUMMARY:
Year to Dec. 31
Sales
% change y/y
EBIT
% change y/y
EBIT Margin (%)
EBITDA
% change y/y
EBITDA Margin (%)
Net Profits
% change y/y
NPM (%)
EPS (Php)
% change y/y
2012
62,153.2
14.1
20,430.0
0.4
32.9
40,906.2
1.0
65.8
24,406.8
13.0
39.3
3.32
13.0
2013
72,055.2
15.9
19,477.3
(4.7)
27.0
33,892.4
(2.5)
47.0
18,576.9
(23.9)
25.8
2.52
(23.9)
2014
86,759.4
20.4
22,350.8
14.8
25.8
35,082.3
15.6
40.4
16,705.2
(10.1)
19.3
2.27
(10.1)
2015
85,174.0
(1.8)
24,686.6
10.5
29.0
34,048.7
7.5
40.0
17,603.8
5.4
20.7
2.39
5.4
2016E
83,272.9
(2.2)
24,858.2
0.7
29.9
39,918.3
2.7
47.9
19,151.9
8.8
23.0
2.60
8.8
2017E
89,771.1
7.8
28,488.7
14.6
31.7
41,967.7
12.9
46.7
22,225.5
16.0
24.8
3.02
16.0
RELATIVE VALUE
P/E(X)
P/BV(X)
ROE(%)
Dividend yield (%)
13.6
4.0
29.5
2.0
17.8
3.6
20.4
2.9
19.8
3.4
17.4
2.9
18.8
3.3
17.3
4.2
17.3
3.1
18.0
4.3
14.9
2.9
19.6
4.6
1M
3M
YTD
-5.88
2.09
5.52
0.63
7.43
11.79
MARKET DATA
Market Cap
Outstanding Shares
52 Wk Range
330,769.07Mil
7,358.60Mil
38.40 - 49.00
99.39Mil
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incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COLs Equity Research Department as of the report and are subject to change
without prior notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of sale of a security. COL
Financial and/or its employees not involved in the preparation of this report may have investments in securities of derivatives of the companies mentioned in
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Contact
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2402-D East Tower, Philippine Stock Exchange Centre,
Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City
1605 Philippines
Tel No. +632 636-5411
Fax No. +632 635-4632
Website: www.colfinancial.com
Disclaimer: All content provided in COL Reports are meant to be read in the COL Financial website. Accuracy and completeness of content cannot be guaranteed if reports are viewed outside
of the COL Financial website as these may be subject to tampering or unauthorized alterations.