SIR model

closed population (N)

Susceptible Size (S)
Infective (I)
Removed (immune) (R)
contact rate
incidence *(S/N)*I
waiting time (1/)
per capita rate
# leaving infective class per unit time = *I

1000.00
1000.00
1.00
1.00
5.00
5.00
4.00
0.25
0.25

Reproduction number Ro = /

Rate equations

Because S + I + R = N, we ca
Setting s = S/N and i=I/N and

/=()/
/=/

/=

/=

/=

s
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90

0.95
1.00

0.95
1.00

*(S/N)*I

*I
R

EQN
S+I+R=N

ecause S + I + R = N, we can find R if we know S and I, so we only need the first two (dS/dt and dI/dt)
etting s = S/N and i=I/N and multiplying by N
/=
/=

0.333

dS/dt

DI/dt
0
0
-0.0025 -0.01415
-0.01
-0.0233
-0.0225 -0.02745
-0.04
-0.0266
-0.0625 -0.02075
-0.09
-0.0099
-0.1225 0.00595
-0.16
0.0268
-0.2025 0.05265
-0.25
0.0835
-0.3025 0.11935
-0.36
0.1602
-0.4225 0.20605
-0.49
0.2569
-0.5625 0.31275
-0.64
0.3736
-0.7225 0.43945
-0.81
0.5103

dS/dt
-0.333
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

DI/dt
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

-0.9025
-1

0.58615
0.667

0
0

0
0

dS/dt and dI/dt)

dS/dt
0
-0.2

f(x) = -50.0025x^210
+ 0.005x -15
0.0025
R = 1

20

25
dS/dt

-0.4

Polynomial (dS/dt)
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2

DI/dt
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

f(x) = 0.0025x^2 - 0.02165x + 0.01915

R = 1

DI/dt
Polynomial (DI/dt)

0.7
0.6
0.5

f(x) = 0.0025x^2 - 0.02165x + 0.01915

R = 1

DI/dt
Polynomial (DI/dt)

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1 0

10

15

20

25

mial (dS/dt)

mial (DI/dt)

mial (DI/dt)

series solution