never less than

Most Likely
never more than
alpha
expected value
slope
x
conditional E(X)

a
c
b

1150
0
1375 0.0036364
1700
0

0.75
1408.333333
-1.1189E-005
1333.854537
1455.903025

Do nothing
1150
0
1160 0.0008081
1170 0.0032323
1180 0.0072727
1190 0.0129293
1200 0.020202
1210 0.0290909
1220 0.039596
1230 0.0517172
1240 0.0654545
1250 0.0808081
1260 0.0977778
1270 0.1163636
1280 0.1365657
1290 0.1583838
1300 0.1818182
1310 0.2068687
1320 0.2335354
1330 0.2618182
1340 0.2917172
1350 0.3232323
1360 0.3563636
1370 0.3911111
1380 0.4274747
1390 0.4654545
1400 0.5050505
1410 0.5295105
1420 0.5613986
1430 0.5921678
1440 0.6218182
1450 0.6503497
1460 0.6777622
1470 0.7040559
1480 0.7292308

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1000

1100

1200

1490
1500
1510
1520
1530
1540
1550
1560
1570
1580
1590
1600
1610
1620
1630
1640
1650
1660
1670
1680
1690
1700

0.7532867
0.7762238
0.798042
0.8187413
0.8383217
0.8567832
0.8741259
0.8903497
0.9054545
0.9194406
0.9323077
0.9440559
0.9546853
0.9641958
0.9725874
0.9798601
0.986014
0.991049
0.994965
0.9977622
0.9994406
1

Do Nothing

PDF

PDF
0.004
0.0035
0.003
0.0025
0.002
0.0015

0.001
0.0005
0
1100

1200

never
less than
1
Most
Likely
0.9
never more than
0.8

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

Do
Nothing Pdf
CDF
0
0
400
0.0025
800
0

0.7

Expected Value

400

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

0
1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

best (0)
0
1
1100

25th

median (50) 75th

0.25
0.5
0.75
0.75
0.5
0.25
1200
1375
1450

Density Plot
1150
1300
1375
1450
0.0016667 0.0033333 0.0033333333
0.001
0 0.0016667 0.0033333333 0.0033333

x
y1
y2

DENSITY
0.004
0.0035
0.003
0.0025
0.002
0.0015
0.001
0.0005
0
1100

1200

y
1150
1150
1300
1300
1375
1375
1450
1450
1700
1700

0
0.0016667
0.0016667
0.0033333
0.0033333
0.0033333
0.0033333
0.001
0.001
0

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

18

From alpha calculate beta (assume alpha is greater than .75)

alpha =
0.1
1-alpha =
0.9
beta =
1600 # infected
Interpretation of beta
Beta is the level of adverse consequence (# infected)
that can be exceeded with with (1-alpha) probability.

EXCEEDENCE
worst (100)
1 cumulative
0 exceedance
1700

Do Nothing Exceedance P
1.2
1
0.8

1700
0
0.001

0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

Lost Workdays

CUMULATIVE

Do Nothing CDF

Row 14
1.2

Row 15

1
0.8
%

0.6
0.4

1600

1700

1800

0.2
0
1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

Lost workdays

Do nothing PDF
0.004
0.0035
0.003
0.0025
0.002
0.0015

reater than .75)

e (# infected)
a) probability.

Do nothing PDF
0.004
0.0035
0.003
0.0025
0.002
0.0015

0.001
0.0005

0
1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

Do nothing PDF
0.004
0.003
%

0.002
0.001
0
1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

Lost workdays

1600

170

ng Exceedance Probability

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1600

1700

1800

Lost Workdays

Do Nothing CDF

1300

1400

1500

Lost workdays

PDF

PDF

1500

1600

1700

1800

g PDF

1500

rkdays

1600

1700

1800