Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 66

Precipitation and its estimation

Dr. Mohsin Siddique


Assistant Professor
Dept. of Civil & Env. Engg
1

Outcome of Lecture
After completing this lecture
The students should be able to:










Understand types of precipitation and its measurement in field


Understand the concept of temporal and spatial averaging of
precipitation
Apply several methods to spatially average precipitation
Understand data preparation for any water resource projects
Apply appropriate corrections to data in case of missing
records, errors or inconsistency is present

Precipitation


When the water/moisture in the clouds/atmosphere gets too heavy, the


water/moisture falls back to the earth. This is called precipitation.

Types of Precipitation:
Drizzle
Rain
Freezing rain
Sleet
Snow
Hail








Rainfall being the predominant form of precipitation causing


stream flow, especially the flood flow in majority of rivers.Thus, in
this context, rainfall is used synonymously with precipitation.
3

Precipitation: Rainfall


Rain: It is precipitation in the form of water drops of size between 0.5


mm to 7mm






The rainfall is classified into


 Light rain if intensity is trace to 2.5 mm/h
 Moderate rain if intensity is 2.5 mm/hr to 7.5 mm/hr
 Heavy rain above 7.5 mm/hr

Measurement Units:
Amount of precipitation/rain (mm or inch)
 It is measure as total depth of rainfall over an area in one day.
Intensity of precipitation/rain (mm/hr or inch/hr)
 It is the amount of precipitation at a place per unit time (rain rate). It
is expressed as mm/hr or inch/hr
4

Measurement of Precipitation


Why do we need to measure rainfall?

Agriculture what to plant in certain areas, where and when to plant,


when to harvest

Horticulture/viticulture - how and when to irrigate

Engineers - to design structures for runoff control i.e. storm-water


drains, bridges etc.

Scientists - hydrological modelling of catchments

Measurement of Precipitation


Method of measuring rainfall:

Instruments for measuring precipitation include rain gauges and


snow gauges, and various types are manufactured according to the
purpose at hand.

Rain gauges are classified into


 Non-recording (Manual) and
 recording types (Automatic)

Instrument used to collect and measure the precipitation is called rain gauge and the location
at which raingage is located is called gauging station.
6

Measurement of Precipitation


Non-recording (Manual) types:

Often have a funnel opening into a


cylinder gauge.

Come in a variety of shapes and sizes

Calculate the rainfall (in mm) by


dividing the volume of water collected
by the area of the opening of the cup.
(The gauge marking often accounts for
this).

Measurement of Precipitation
Non-recording (Manual) types:

Measurement of Precipitation
Recording (Automatic) types:

Tipping bucket gauges


 Weighing type gauges
 Float recording gauges
Tipping bucket rain gauge -The bucket tips when precipitation of 0.2 mm,
0.5 mm, 1.0 mm has been collected. Each tip is recorded by a data logger.


Measurement of Precipitation


Recording (Automatic) types:

Weather Station - Records rainfall, but also evaporation, air


pressure, air temperature, wind speed and wind direction (so can be
used to estimate evapo-transpiration)

Radar - Ground-based radar equipment can be used to determine


how much rain is falling and where it is the heaviest.

10

Measurement of Precipitation


Recording (Automatic) types:

Weather Station -

11

Measurement of Precipitation


Recording (Automatic) types:

Radar -

12

Measurement of Precipitation
Raingauge Network


Since the catching area of the raingauge is very small as compared to


the areal extent of the storm, to get representative picture of a
storm over a catchment the number of raingauges should be as
large as possible, i.e. the catchment area per gauge should be small.

There are several factors to be considered to restrict the number of


gauges:
 Like economic considerations to a large extent
 Topographic & accessibility to some extent.

13

Catchment area: An extent of land where water from precipitation drains into a
body of water

Measurement of Precipitation
Raingauge Network


World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendation:




In flat regions of temperate, Mediterranean and tropical zones


 Ideal  1 station for 600 900 km2
 Acceptable 1 station for 900 3000 km2
In mountainous regions of temperate , Mediterranean and tropical zones
 Ideal  1 station for 100 250 km2
 Acceptable  1 station for 250 1000 km2
In arid and polar zone
 1 station for 1500 10,000 km2

10 % of the raingauges should be self recording to know the intensity of


the rainfall !!

14

Measurement of Precipitation
Raingauge Network



Placement of rainguages
Gauges are affected by wind pattern, eddies, trees and the
gauge itself, therefore it is important to have the gauge located
and positioned properly.
Raingauges should be
 1m above ground level is standard  All gauges in a catchment should be the same height
 2 to 4 times the distance away from an isolated object (such as a
tree or building) or in a forest a clearing with the radius at least the
tree height or place the gauge at canopy level
 shielded to protect gauge in windy sites or if obstructions are
numerous they will reduce the wind-speed, turbulence and eddies.

15

Measurement of Precipitation
Raingauge Network

Rainguage with wind shield


16

Measurement of Precipitation
Raingauge Network

17

For sloping ground the gauge should be placed with the opening
parallel to the ground
The rainfall catch volume (mm3) is then divided by the opening area
that the rain can enter

Measurement of Precipitation
Sources of Errors









Instrument error
Observer error
Errors due to different observation times
Error due to occult precipitation
Errors due to low-intensity rains
Any-other ?
_________________________________

Occult precipitation: Precipitation arriving at a location by processes that would


normally go unrecorded by a standard rain gauge, e.g. the condensation of mist and
fog on foliage.
18

Preparation of Data


Before using rainfall data for any analysis, it is necessary to check the
record for
 Missing data and/or
 Consistency of data

19

Inconsistency in rainfall data my root from


 Change of gauge location
 Change of gauge type
 Change of gauge environment
 Change of gauge observer
 Change of gauge climate

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Methods


The following methods can be used to estimate the


missing precipitation data





20

Station-average method
Normal-ratio method
Inverse-distance weighting
Regression

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Station Average Method

1 n
PX = Pi
n i=1
PX is the missing precipitation value for station X
P1, P2, , Pn are precipitation values at the adjacent
stations for the same period
n is the number of nearby stations

This method is used when 10% variation in annual precipitation at


station X lies within annual precipitation of surrounding/adjacent
stations.

21

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Example


Find out the missing storm precipitation data of station X given in following
table using station averaging method
Station

Storm Precipitation (inches)

3.8

3.25

4.6

3.15

Annual Precipitation (inches)

39.50

43.1

36.8

49.5

46.20

1 n
1
PX = Pi = (3.8 + 3.25 + 4.6 + 3.15) = 3.7in
n i =1
4
What about 10% variation check from annual precipitation ??

22

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Normal Ratio Method

PX
1 P1 P2
Pn
1 n Pi
=
+
+ ..... +
or PX = N X
N X n N1 N 2
Nn
n i=1 Ni







PX is the missing precipitation value for station X for a certain time period
P1, P2, , Pn are precipitation values at adjacent stations for the same period
NX is the long-term, annual average precipitation at station X
N1, N2, , Nn is the long-term precipitation for neighboring stations
n is the number of adjacent stations

23

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Example


Find out the missing storm precipitation data of station X given in following
table
Station

Storm Precipitation (inches)

3.8

3.25

4.6

3.15

Annual Precipitation (inches)

39.50

43.1

36.8

49.5

46.20

Test the normal annual precipitation at station X

10% of 36.8 = 3.68in


3.68 + 36.8 = 40.48in and 33.12in
Since annual precipitation of adjacent station does not lie with 10% so station
averaging method cannot be used and instead normal ratio method will be used for
better accuracy
24

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Example


Find out the missing storm precipitation data of station X given in following
table
Station

Storm Precipitation (inches)

3.8

3.25

4.6

3.15

Annual Precipitation (inches)

39.50

43.1

36.8

49.5

46.20

P1 = 3.8" , P2 = 3.25" , P3 = 4.6" , P4 = 3.15"


N1 = 39.5" , N 2 = 43.1" , N 3 = 49.5" , N 4 = 46.2"
Px = ?, N x = 36.8"
PX
1 P
P
P
= 1 + 2 + ..... + n =
N X n N1 N 2
Nn
PX
1 3.8 3.25 4.6 3.15
=
+
+
+

36.8 4 39.5 43.1 49.5 46.2


25

PX = 3.06"

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Station Average Method


Example

26

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Inverse Distance Weighing
1. di = (xi2 + yi2)0.5

Distance from gage with missing data to


the neighboring gages

2.

W=

b
di
i=1

Weight of distances where b is a


proportionality factor (b = 1, 2 )

n
1
b
3. P =
di Pi
X
W i= 1




27

PX is the missing precipitation value for station X for a certain time


period
Pi are precipitation values at adjacent stations for the same period
n is the number of neighboring stations

Preparation of Data: Missing Data


Regression

PX = bo + b1P1 + b2P2 + . + bnPn







28

PX is the missing precipitation value for station X for certain time


period
P1, P2, , Pn are precipitation values at the neighboring stations for the
same period
b0, , bn are coefficients calculated by least-squares methods
n is the number of nearby gages
This method is suitable when there is a large number of days when
observations are available for all gages

Preparation of Data: Consistency of Data


Double Mass Curve Technique
Lets take a group of 5 to 10 base stations in the neighbourhood of the
problem station X is selected
Arrange the data of stn X rainfall and the average of the neighbouring
stations in reverse chronological order (from recent to old record)
Accumulate the precipitation of station X ( Px ) and the average values of
the group base stations ( Pavg ) starting from the latest record.
Plot the ( Px ) against ( Pavg ) as shown on the next figure
A decided break in the slope of the resulting plot is observed that
indicates a change in precipitation regime of station X, i.e., inconsistency.
Therefore, data at stn X should be corrected/adjusted as
Pcx=(Mc/Ma)*Px
Mc is slope of data before breakpoint
Ma is slope of line after breakpoint
Pcx is corrected precipitation at StationX
Px is original precipitation at StationX
29

Double Mass Curve Analysis

accumulated annual rainfall of X stn in 10^3 cm

5
4.5
4

Ma

3.5

Break Point

Mc c
=
Ma a

2.5
2
1.5
1

Mc

0.5
0
0

0.5

1.5

2.5

Accumulated annual rainfall of neigbouring stns in 10^3 cm

M
Pcx = Px
M
30

Pcx corrected precipitation at any time period t1 at stationX


c P Original recorded precp. at time period t at station X
x
1
Mc corrected slope of the double mass curve
a
Ma original slope of the mass curve after break

Preparation of Data: Consistency of Data


Double Mass Curve Technique

(i). Check whether the data of


station X is consistent
(ii). In which year change
indicated?
(iii). Compute the mean
annual rainfall for station X at
its present site for the given
36 year period first without
adjustment and secondly with
the data adjusted for the
change in regime.
(iv). Compute the adjusted
annual rainfall at station X for
the affected period.
31

Preparation of Data: Consistency of Data


Double Mass Curve Technique

32

Preparation of Data: Consistency of Data


Double Mass Curve Technique

33

Preparation of Data: Consistency of Data


Double Mass Curve Technique

34

Part II

35

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Rainfall




Rainfall varies greatly both in time and space


 With respect to time Temporal variation
 With space Spatial variation
The temporal variation may be defined as hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal
variations and annual variation (long-term variation of precipitation)
Temporal Variation of rainfall at a particular site

Rainfall Intensity, cm/hr

Total Rainfall amount = 6.17 cm


14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0

20

40

60

80

Time, min

36

100

120

140

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Rainfall

Long term Precipitation variation at Arba Minch


45

A n n u a l ra i n f a l l , m m

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996
Years

37

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Annual Precipitation
average precipitation

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Rainfall

Source: Gary R Fuelner, Rainfall and climate records from Sharjah Airport: Historical data for
38 the study of recent climatic periodicity in the U.A.E.


Temporal Averaging of Precipitation




Storm rainfall/precipitation: It is the precipitation of a particular


storm/rainfall event.


Daily Rainfall: The amount of rainfall accumulated in one day at a place,


24
Mathematically;

Pday = Pi
i =1

Where Pday is daily rainfall and Pi is hourly storm rainfall during a given
day.

Monthly Rainfall: The amount of rainfall accumulated in one month at a


place, Mathematically;
30

Pmonth =

day

i = day


39

Where Pmonth is monthly rainfall and Pday is daily precipitation during a


given month.

Temporal Averaging of Precipitation




Annual Rainfall: The amount of rainfall accumulated in one year at a place,


Mathematically;
365

Pann =

day

i = day

Where Pann is annual rainfall and Pday is daily rainfall

Average rainfall for N years: It is the arithmetic average of annual


precipitation for N years over a rain gauging station. Mathematically;
N

Pavg =


40

i =1

Where Pavg is average rainfall for N years and Pi is annual rainfall for ith
year

Temporal Averaging of Precipitation




Estimate average monthly and annual precipitation from given data

Average Monthly Precipitation ?


N

Pi
Pavg =

i =1

= (18.8 + 25 + 22.1 + 7.2 + 0.4 + 0 + 0.8 + 0 + 0 + 1.1 + 2.7 + 16.2 ) / 12 = 7.86mm

Annual Precipitation ?
365

Pann = Pi
i =1

12

Pann = Pi
i =1

Pann = (18.8 + 25 + 22.1 + 7.2 + 0.4 + 0 + 0.8 + 0 + 0 + 1.1 + 2.7 + 16.2 ) = 94.3
41

Climate data for Dubai


Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Year

Record high 31.6


C (F)
(88.9)

37.5
(99.5)

41.3
(106.3)

43.5
(110.3)

47.0
(116.6)

46.7
(116.1)

49.0
(120.2)

48.7
(119.7)

45.1
(113.2)

42.0
(107.6)

41.0
(105.8)

35.5
(95.9)

49
(120.2)

Average
high C (F)

24.0
(75.2)

25.4
(77.7)

28.2
(82.8)

32.9
(91.2)

37.6
(99.7)

39.5
(103.1)

40.8
(105.4)

41.3
(106.3)

38.9
(102)

35.4
(95.7)

30.5
(86.9)

26.2
(79.2)

33.4
(92.1)

Daily mean
C (F)

19
(66)

20
(68)

22.5
(72.5)

26
(79)

30.5
(86.9)

33
(91)

34.5
(94.1)

35.5
(95.9)

32.5
(90.5)

29
(84)

24.5
(76.1)

21
(70)

27.5
(81.5)

Average
low C (F)

14.3
(57.7)

15.4
(59.7)

17.6
(63.7)

20.8
(69.4)

24.6
(76.3)

27.2
(81)

29.9
(85.8)

30.2
(86.4)

27.5
(81.5)

23.9
(75)

19.9
(67.8)

16.3
(61.3)

22.3
(72.1)

Record low
C (F)

6.1
(43)

6.9
(44.4)

9.0
(48.2)

13.4
(56.1)

15.1
(59.2)

18.2
(64.8)

20.4
(68.7)

23.1
(73.6)

16.5
(61.7)

15.0
(59)

11.8
(53.2)

8.2
(46.8)

6.1
(43)

Precipitatio
n mm
(inches)

18.8
(0.74)

25.0
(0.984)

22.1
(0.87)

7.2
(0.283)

0.4
(0.016)

0.0
(0)

0.8
(0.031)

0.0
(0)

0.0
(0)

1.1
(0.043)

2.7
(0.106)

16.2
(0.638)

94.3
(3.711)

Avg. precipit
ation days

5.4

4.7

5.8

2.6

0.3

0.0

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.2

1.3

3.8

25.2

% humidity

65

65

63

55

53

58

56

57

60

60

61

64

59.8

Mean
monthly sun
shine hours

254.2

229.6

254.5

294.0

344.1

342.0

322.4

316.2

309.0

303.8

285.0

256.6

3,511.4

42
42

Source #1: Dubai Meteorological Office[4]


Source #2: climatebase.ru (extremes, sun),[5], NOAA (humidity, 1974-1991)[6]

Spatial Averaging of Precipitation




Average rainfall over an area: It is the amount of precipitation which


can be assumed as uniform over the given area.

It is estimated by using several approaches given below;






Arithmetic method
Theissen polygon method
Isohyetal method

According to arithmetic method, arithmetic mean precipitation


over an area can be defined by
N

Pi
Pavg =


43

i =1

Where, Pavg is the average precipitation, N is the total number of stations and
Pi is the average annual precipitation for ith station.

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data




Raingauges rainfall represent only point sampling of the areal


distribution of a storm

The important rainfall for hydrological analysis is a rainfall over


an area, such as over the catchment

To convert the point rainfall values at various stations in to


average value over a catchment, the following methods are
used:
 (i). arithmetic mean method
 (ii). the method of the Thiessen polygons
 (iii). the isohyetal method
44

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Arithmetic Mean Method
When the area is physically and climatically
homogenous and the required accuracy is small,
the average rainfall ( P ) for a basin can be
obtained as the arithmetic mean of the Pi values
recorded at various stations.
Applicable rarely for practical purpose

P1 + P2 + ..... + Pi + .....Pn
P =
=
N
45

1
N

i =1

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Thiessen Polygon Method
The method of Thiessen polygons consists of attributing to
each station an influence zone in which it is considered that
the rainfall is equivalent to that of the station.
The influence zones are represented by convex polygons.
These polygons are obtained using the mediators of the
segments which link each station to the closest
neighbouring stations

46

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Thiessen Polygon Method

47

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Thiessen Polygon Method
P7

P6

A7

A6

P2
A2

A1

A8

P1

P8

P5
A3

A4

P3
P4
48

A5

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Thiessen Polygon Method

P1 A1 + P2 A2 + ..... + Pm Am
P =
( A1 + A2 + ..... + Am )
Generally for M station
M

PA
i

P
Ai
The ratio
A
49

i =1

Atotal

i =1

Ai
Pi
A

is called the weightage factor of station i

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Thiessen Polygon Method

50

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Thiessen Polygon Method

Ai
A

= Pi

Pi

51

Mean precipitation =

i =1

Pi

Ai
A =121.84

Ai
A

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Isohyetal Method
An isohyet is a line joining points of equal rainfall
magnitude.
10.0

8
6

D
A5
12

C
9.2

12
A4

A3

7.0
B

7.2
A
A2
4.0
F

E
9.1

A1
8

52

10.0

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Isohyetal Method
P1, P2, P3, . , Pn the values of the isohytes
A1, A2, A3, ., A4 are the inter isohytes area respectively
Atotal the total catchment area
P - the mean precipitation over the catchment

Pn1 + Pn
P1 + P2 P2 + P3
A1
+...+ An1

+ A2
2 2
2

P=
Atotal
NOTE
53

The isohyet method is superior to the other two methods


especially when the stations are large in number.

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Isohyetal Method

54

Pavg =

55

Pi + Pi+1
2

Ai

Ai
Atotal

Pavg

Ai
Atotal

Methods of Spatial Averaging Rainfall Data


Isohyetal Method


Other mapping programs such as SURFER or GIS


program ARCVIEW can be used to map rainfall at
the different measurement locations.

56

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Relationship


Hyetograph
- is a plot of the precipitation against time
Hyetograph of a storm
Total depth = 10.6 cm

Intensity, cm /hr

0.5

Duration = 48 hr

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
08

8 16

16 24

24 32

Time, hours
57

32 40

40 48

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Relationship


Mass Curve of Rainfall
- is a plot of the accumulated precipitation against time

accumulated precipitation, mm

Mass curve of rainfall


60
50
40
30
20

1st storm,
16 mm

2nd storm,
34 mm

10
0
0

20

40

60
Time, hour

58

80

100

120

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF)


Relationship


Example: The mass curve of rainfall in a storm of total duration 270


minutes is given below. Draw the hyetograph of the storm at 30 minute
time step.

Time since start (min)

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270

Cumulative Rainfall (mm)


Incremental depth in
interval of 30 min (mm)

18 21

36

43

49

52

53

54

12

15

12 24

30

14

12

Rainfall intensity (mm/hr)

Hyetograph
Rainfall intensity (mm/hr)

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

59

30

60

90

120
150
180
Time (min)

210

240

270

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF)


Relationship



Return Period (T) - The average length of time in years for an event (e.g.
flood or rainfall) of given magnitude to be equalled or exceeded.
For example, if the rainfall with a 50 year return period at a given location
is 200mm, this is just another way of saying that a rainfall 200mm, or
greater, should occur at that location on the average only once every 50
years.

Probability of Occurrence (p) (of an event of specified magnitude) The probability that an event of the specified magnitude will be equalled or
exceeded during a one year period.

Basic Relationships
T=1/P or P=1/T
60

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF)


Relationship



Probability analysis may be made either by empirical or by analytical


methods.
A simple empirical technique is to arrange the given annual extreme series
in descending order of magnitude and to assign an order number, m. Thus
for the first entry m=1 and for the second entry m=2 and so on, till the last
event for which m=N=number of years of record. The probablity, P, of an
event equalled to or exceeded is given by the Weibul formula.
M
N +1
1 N +1
T= =
P m
P=

Above equation is empirical and there are several other empirical


equations available to calculate P.
61

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF)


Relationship



The record of annual rainfall at station A covering a period of 22 years is


given below.
(a). Estimate the annual rainfall with return periods of 10 years and 23 years
(b). What would be the probability of an annual rainfall of magnitude equal
to or exceeding 100cm.

62

Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970

Annual Rainfall
(cm)
130
84
76
89
112
96
80
125
143
89
78

Year
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

Annual Rainfall
(cm)
90
102
108
60
75
120
160
85
106
83
95

m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22(=N)

Annual
Rainfall (cm)
160
140
130
125
120
112
108
106
102
96
95
90
89
89
85
84
83
80
78
76
75
60

Probability
P=m/(N+1)
0.043
0.087
0.130
0.174
0.217
0.261
0.304
0.348
0.391
0.435
0.478
0.522
0.565
0.609
0.652
0.696
0.739
0.783
0.826
0.870
0.913
0.957

Return
Period
T (years)
23.00
11.50
7.67
5.75
4.60
3.83
3.29
2.88
2.56
2.30
2.09
1.92
1.77
1.64
1.53
1.44
1.35
1.28
1.21
1.15
1.10
1.05

(a).
Annual rainfall for 10 years
return period.
By interpolation, P=137.5cm
Annual rainfall for 23 years
return period.
P=160cm
Annual rainfall for 50 years
return period.
By extrapolation, P= ??cm

(b). Return period of P=100cm


is 2.4 (by interpolation between
102 and 96)

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Relationship


IDF Curve





In many design problems related to watershed such as runoff


disposal, erosion control, highway construction, culvert design, it
is necessary to know the rainfall intensities of different durations
and different return periods.
The curve that shows the inter-dependency between i (cm/hr), D
(hour) and T (year) is called IDF curve.
The relation can be expressed in general form as:

i =
64

kT

i Intensity (cm/hr)

(D + a )

D Duration (hours)
K, x, a, n are constant for a given
catchment

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Relationship

Typical IDF Curve

In tesity, cm /h r

14

T = 25 years

12

T = 50 years

10

T = 100 years

8
6

k = 6.93
x = 0.189
a = 0.5
n = 0.878

4
2
0
0

3
Duration, hr

65

Thank you


Questions.

66

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi