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TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.
The Economy.02
II.
III.
Retail Market.. 05
IV.
Residential Market. 07
Until the rupiah recovered somewhat in early October, the IDR had
depreciated by around 15% since the end of 2014. The US Federal
Reserve raised interest rates in December and fears that this
would cause further rupiah depreciation proved unfounded at
least in the short-term. A relatively stable rupiah towards the backend of 2015 was viewed favourably by onlookers.
Relatively high inflation levels throughout 2015 were caused, to a
large extent, by the removal of fuel subsidies towards the backend of 2014. However, with the fuel subsidy removed from y-o-y
comparisons by end-2015, inflation dropped sharply from over 7%
mid-year to 3.35% in December, leaving room for a cut in interest
rates in January.
17,000
15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
13,795
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
7.50%
3.35%
3.56%
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
The Economy
Inflation
BI Rate
5.4
5.2
% 5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
Q42013 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015
Supply
Demand
Enquiry levels for office space were relatively thin
throughout 2015 and the final quarter was a continuation
of this trend. The market continued to be negatively
impacted by relatively sluggish economic growth, low
commodity prices, rupiah (IDR) depreciation against the
US dollar and uncertainty in the global economy.
65%
2015
2014
New Supply
2013
Sqm
70%
2012
75%
2011
80%
2010
85%
2009
Grade C
90%
2008
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
Grade B
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
Grade A
100%
95%
2007
Pre-commited space
in new completions
Contractual Occupancy
Net Take-up
60%
Occupancy
Rents
Net Absorption
200,000
175,000
150,000
125,000
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
-25,000
2006
Sqm
Occupancy
CBD Office
sqm
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Net Take-up
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
3Q07
1Q07
3Q06
1Q06
Grade A
Grade B
Grade C
Premium
Occupancy Rate
New Supply
60%
Occupancy
Rental Outlook
500,000
400,000
Outlook
2020
2019
2018
Grade C
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Grade B
2012
2011
Grade A
2010
2009
100,000
2008
200,000
2007
300,000
2006
Premium
Growth
Slowing
Rents
Falling
Rents
Rising
Decline
Slowing
Jakarta
2020
Non-CBD Office
Net Absorption
70,000
Pre-committed
space in new
completions
60,000
50,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
Contractual Occupancy
100%
95%
90%
85%
Sqm
Grade C
Supply
80%
75%
70%
65%
2015
2014
New Supply
2013
2012
2011
Net Take-up
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Demand from the oil & gas and mining sectors remained
relatively weak while we saw some leasing activity from
banks. With occupancy falling in the CBD and rents
coming down, tenants which may otherwise have
explored non-CBD options are now viewing some
cheaper CBD buildings as viable alternatives and we are
seeing direct competition between some projects in the
CBD and South Jakarta.
Mirroring the situation in the CBD, a large volume of new
supply was completed throughout 2015 and occupancy
levels continued to fall in the final quarter. Hardest hit
was South Jakarta and TB Simatupang where two new
completions entered the market in the final quarter.
Occupancy remained healthier in other non-CBD
geographies where supply was more limited and the
demand profile more niche.
Grade B
3Q08
1Q08
30,000
Occupancy
Sqm
40,000
Demand
60%
Occupancy
Rents
Outlook
As with the situation in the CBD, macro headwinds have
also been impacting the non-CBD office market and
several new completions in recent quarters have caused
vacancy rates to rise; particularly in TB Simatupang and
South Jakarta. As such, landlords in these areas
became flexible on rents in order to boost occupancy.
225,000
200,000
175,000
150,000
125,000
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
South Jakarta
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
Central Jakarta
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
North Jakarta
Retail Market
Supply
Demand
Occupancy
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2015
2014
2013
2012
New Supply
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Net Take-up
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Sqm
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
Occupancy
Rents
120,000
100,000
Sqm
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
Outlook
Retail rents
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
Middle
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
Upper
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Middle Low
Residential Market
Condominium Launches
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
Middle
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
Upper
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
In mid-2015, the price and size threshold for the superluxury tax were reduced. In the final quarter, the
government also implemented changes to luxury (as
opposed to super-luxury) taxes whereby a size threshold
was replaced by an IDR 10 billion price threshold. While
this should go some way to having the desired effect of
boosting demand, the fact that the luxury price threshold
is higher than its super-luxury (IDR 5 billion) counterpart
seems somewhat counter-intuitive.
Units
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Lower Middle
Condominium prices
Sustained demand for middle and middle-low
end condominiums while luxury sales remained
weak.
6,000
5,000
4,000
Units
Condominium sales
3,000
2,000
1,000
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
Condominium prices
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
3Q15
1Q15
High-end
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
Upper
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
Middle
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
Lower middle
Luxury
Outlook
10
Glossary
Office Glossary
The CBD sub-market is the commercial area bounded by Jl Sudirman-Thamrin, Jl Gatot Subroto and Jl HR Rasuna Said (Kuningan).
The Non-CBD sub-market covers the commercial areas outside the CBD, which are classified by municipality, i.e. Central Jakarta, South
Jakarta, East Jakarta, West Jakarta and North Jakarta.
The net absorption (take-up) rate refers to the net cumulative increase in space occupied in a particular period.
Prime refers to a property that is rated most highly in terms of quality, location, facilities, etc.
Vacancy rate refers to the ratio of vacant space to the total stock (leasable area) available.
Gross rent refers to the total rental payable by tenants. This is equivalent to the sum of net rental plus outgoings.
Base rental is the minimum rental payable for an office space without taking into account any add-ons, such as service charge and afterhours utility costs that make up the total lease package.
Service charge is the collective name for the cost of air-conditioning, other services and management charges passed on to tenants.
Retail Glossary
Rental shopping malls are shopping centres that are offered for lease by the landlord on a monthly basis. The typical lease term for a
specialty store is between one and three years.
Strata-title trade centres are shopping centres that are offered for sale by the developer. A trade centre mostly consists of small kiosks that
typically range from 4-20 sqm.
The net absorption (take-up) rate refers to the net cumulative increase in space occupied in a particular period.
Prime retail space refers to space in a mall that is located in prime areas (i.e. lobby level up to the first three floors).
Vacancy rate is the ratio of vacant space to the total stock (leasable area) available.
Gross rental refers to the total rental payable by tenants. This is equivalent to the sum of net rental plus outgoings.
Base rental is the minimum rental for a retail space without taking into account any add-ons, such as service charges and after-hours utility
costs that make up the total lease package.
Service charge is the collective name for the cost of air-conditioning and other services, and management charges passed on to the tenant.
Residential Glossary
11
Condominiums are a form of multi-stories dwelling comprising units that are offered for sale by the developer. Each unit is owned by a
different person and the common areas are owned jointly by all such individual owners.
Apartments are a type of accommodation (in Jakarta, they are typically in a high-rise residential building) that is built purposely for rent.
Net absorption (take-up) rate for apartments refers to the net cumulative increase in the number of occupied units over a particular period;
for condominiums, it refers to the net sales in the quarter.
Vacancy rates for apartments refers to the ratio of vacant units to the total stock (leasable units) available; for condominiums, it refers to
the ratio of total unsold units to the total stock over a particular period.
Base rental for apartments refers to the minimum rental for an apartment unit without taking into account any add-ons, such as service
charges, that make up the total lease package.
Service charges for apartments refers to the collective name for the cost of public utilities and maintenance, including management
charges passed on to the tenant.
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