TrackingtheAnthropogenicDrivers

ofCO2 EmissionsGrowthinIndia:A
StateLevelAnalysis
ParulGupta(TERI)
Prof.SurenderKumar(Department
ofBusinessEconomics,DU)
November56,2011
NewDelhi

Objectives
StatewiseanalysisofCO2 emissions
Constructionofinventory

Identificationofdriversbehindemissions
IPATidentity
STIRPATmodel

Projectionofemissionsfor2020
Twoalternatescenarios

Thousandtonnes

Emissionstrend:India

Statelevelanalysis:Rationale
India:widegeographical,socioeconomic
diversities
Aggregatesmayhidedetails:disaggregated
analysisrequiredforpolicyanalysis
Federalnatureofpolity:polluting sectors
suchastransportandindustryarestatelevel
areas
Informationatthestatelevelindispensableto
designeffectivemitigationstrategies

InventoryEstimation:Observations
FourfoldincreaseinemissionsforIndiainthe
aggregate
Lowincomestates
Highrelativeshareofpopulation
Highemissionsduetoconcentrationofpolluting
industries
Lessresourcestoinvestincleantechnology

Middleincomestates
Steadilyincreasingemissions

Highincomestates
Maharashtra,Gujarat,TamilNadu:highemissions
Delhi,Kerala,HimachalPradesh:lowemissions

PolicyImplications
Stateswithhighpercapitaincomeshould
takestringentmeasures
Importantroleofenvironmentfederalismin
attributingresponsibilityofmitigationacross
regions

Driversofemissions
IPATidentity
Impactsareaproductofincome,populationand
technology(other factors)
I=PAT

Technologycoefficientscalculated
Incomeappearstobetheprimarydriverof
emissions

Driversofemissions:India

Observations
Intensity(T)hasbeenhighandincreasing,but
latelyithasstartedtodecline
Overallcarbonefficiencyislow

Incomecanbeidentifiedasaprimarydriver
formoststates
Decouplingofgrowthcanbeseeninhighincome
states

STIRPATmodel
LimitationsofIPAT(Kaya,1997)
Cantbeusedforhypothesestesting
Proportionaleffectofdriversassumed

STIRPAT(DietzandRosa,1994)
Stochasticmodel
Usedtotesthypotheses
Allowsfornonproportionalityofdrivers

STIRPAT:FormalSpecification
LogI=a+blogA+clogP+e
e capturestheother factors:analogousto
T intheIPATformulation
Specificationused:
LogIi=a+blogA+c(logA)2 +dlogP+Si+e

Estimatesofcoefficientsobtainedtoassess
thecontributionofeachfactortowards
emissions

STIRPATresults
EstimatedCoefficientsofSTIRPATModelUsingFixedEffectsModel
Coefficient

t-statistic

Variable
Log A
(Log A)2
Log P
Constant
Adj R2
No. of Observations

4.89***

4.31

-0.21***

-3.81

0.88***

5.66

-17.55***

-3.15
0.986
306

PossibleExistenceofEKCrelation
Ln(CO2 Emissions, 000'tonnes)

Figure: Relationship between Per Capita Income and CO2 Emissions

27.4
27.2
27
26.8
26.6
26.4
26.2
8.5

9.5

10

10.5

11

Ln(Per Capita Income, INR)

11.5

12

12.5

Projectedemissionsfor2020
Twoalternatescenariosforintensity
considered
Constantintensity(businessasusual)
Reducedintensity
20%reductionfrom2005level

Scenariosforpopulationandincome
Growthratesofrespectivestates

1841638thousandtonnesunderBAU
1473311thousandtonnesunderreduced
intensity
368328thousandtonnesreductionachievedif
intensityreductiontargetmet

Conclusions
Vastdiversityinstatewiseemissionstrend
Stateswithhighpercapitaemissionshavegreaterscope
ofreducingemissions
Lowincomestateswhicharealsoheavypolluterswill
needtechnologytransferandfinancialsupportfromthe
centreandricherstates

Futureemissionsexpectedtobehigh
PossibilityofEKCfurthersubstantiatesthishypothesis
Furtherreductioninintensitybyencouragingefficiency
andcleanertechnologiesisthekey

Environmentalfederalismplaysanimportantrole
ContainingstatelevelemissionswillstrengthenIndias
positionontheglobalcarbonmarketandinternational
forums
Centreandstatesneedtocoordinateandcooperateto
achievelowcarbongrowthtrajectory

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Questions?Comments?

@:surender672@gmail.com
@:parul.gupta@teri.res.in