OSE551 Reliability and Risk Analysis for Offshore Plants

Event Tree Analysis (ETA)

Example: Separator

Daejun CHANG (djchang@kaist.edu)

Division of Ocean Systems Engineering

Korea Advanced Institute of

Science and Technology

Example: FirstFirst-stage gas separator

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Separator
One of the most frequently used process component
Examples
The separator (the knock-out drum) in front of a compressor
to remove droplets which may mechanically damage the
impellers.
The separator (the well fluid separator) to separate the well
fluid into solid, water, crude, and gas.
The storage drum for a pump
...
Safety critical because it contain a significant amount of
hydrocarbon inventory.

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Example: FirstFirst-stage gas separator

What happens
if the gas outlet is blocked?

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Main Steps of ETA

1. Identify an initial event
2. Identify the safety systems
3. Construct the event tree which consists of branches determined
by
the success of the safety systems
Others: environmental, human or given design
4. Describe the consequences
5. Determine
the frequency of the initial event
the (conditional) probabilities of the branches
6. Calculate the probabilities/frequencies of consequences
(outcomes)
7. Compile and present the results from the analysis

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Main Steps of ETA

1. Identify an initial event
Gas outlet blocked
2. Identify the safety systems
3. Construct the event tree which consists of branches determined
by
the success of the safety systems
Others: environmental, human or given design
4. Describe the consequences
5. Determine
the frequency of the initial event
the (conditional) probabilities of the branches
6. Calculate the probabilities/frequencies of consequences
(outcomes)
7. Compile and present the results from the analysis
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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Example: FirstFirst-stage gas separator

PSD: Process Shutdown Valves

PSV: Pressure Safety Valves
RD: Rupture Disc

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Main Steps of ETA

1. Identify an initial event
2. Identify the safety systems
PSD, PSV, RD
3. Construct the event tree which consists of branches determined
by
the success of the safety systems
Others: environmental, human or given design
4. Describe the consequences
Which comes first?
5. Determine
the frequency of the initial event
the (conditional) probabilities of the branches
6. Calculate the probabilities/frequencies of consequences
(outcomes)
7. Compile and present the results from the analysis
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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Example: FirstFirst-stage gas separator

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Example: FirstFirst-stage gas separator

What happens
if the gas outlet is blocked?
1. P rises. PSDs are closed.
2. P rises on. PSVs are opened.
3. P rises on. Rupture disc is ruptured.
4. P rises on. Catastrophe!

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Example: FirstFirst-stage gas separator

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Main Steps of ETA

1. Identify an initial event
2. Identify the safety systems
3. Construct the event tree which consists of branches determined
by
4. Describe the consequences
5. Determine
the frequency of the initial event
Failure rate of the equipment downstream the separator
the (conditional) probabilities of the branches
Failure rates of the safety systems
6. Calculate the probabilities/frequencies of consequences
(outcomes)
7. Compile and present the results from the analysis

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Example:
First
First-stage
Failure rate
of PSD,
P1 gas separator
Failure rate of PSV, P2
Failure rate of RD, P3

Failure rate of downstream

Equipment, f0

f0 P1 P2 P3
P3
P2
1-P3

P1
f0

1-P2

f0 P1 P2 (1-P3)

f0 P1 (1-P2)

f0 (1-P1)

1-P1
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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG

Example: Fire and Explosion

Immediate
ignition
Immediate Ignition

Failed to
gas detection
Failure to Gas Detection

Delayed Failed to
ignition fire detection
Delayed Ignition

Failure to Fire Detection

Failed to
isolation
Failure to Isolation

Failed to
blowdown

Outcome
(Consequence)

Failure to Blowdown

Outcome

Yes

Jet Fire (I)

0.0200000000321128

3.35163572291588e-007

Yes
0.0924474154403852
No
0.979999999967887
Leak Frequency
0.000181272548376199

Yes

Jet Fire (II)

0.019

3.12037285292224e-007
Yes

Jet Fire (III)

No

0.019

3.06108576871672e-007

0.981

No

Jet Fire (IV)

0.981

1.58048691532163e-005

Yes

Explosion (I)

Yes

0.179573205600226

5.90847455005523e-007

0.0200000000000334

No

No Impact

No

0.820426794399774

2.69943994077052e-006

0.907552584559615

Yes

Explosion (II)

No

0.179573205600226

2.89515252952213e-005

0.979999999999967

No

No Impact

0.820426794399774

0.00013227255709753

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Ocean Systems Engineering

Prof. Daejun CHANG