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Budget Analysis 2016-17

Jagannath University, Dhaka

Assignment on: Budget Analysis

Course Title: Development Finance

Course Code: FIN- 4105

Submitted to
Sk. Alamgir Hossain
Assistant Professor
Department of Finance
Jagannath University, Dhaka
Submitted by
Abir Ahmed
ID: B-1202030113
7th Batch, Department of Finance
Jagannath University, Dhaka

Submission Date: 25.07.2016

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Table of Contents




Government Budget

Three Sites of Government Budget

Is budget deficit good or bad for a country?

Is budget deficit helpful for developing economy?

Does High Foreign Reserve Always Play an Important Role in


Budget allocation among different sector in 2016-17

Reform measures mentioned in Budget FY17

Different sources of revenue for the proposed budget


Different strategies of fiscal policy to enhance the collection method

of revenue


Challenges and Drawbacks of Budget


Findings and Recommendation and Concluding Remarks


Budget Analysis 2016-17

A budget is a quantitative expression of a plan for a defined period of time. It may include
planned sales volumes and revenues, resource quantities, costs and expenses, assets, liabilities
and cash flows. It expresses strategic plans of business units, organizations, activities or events in
measurable terms.
A budget surplus is a situation in which income exceeds expenditures. The term "budget
surplus" is most commonly used to refer to the financial situations of governments; individuals
speak of "savings" rather than a "budget surplus." A surplus is considered a sign that
government is being run efficiently.
Budget Deficit is a status of financial health in which expenditures exceed revenue. The term
"budget deficit" is most commonly used to refer to government spending rather than business or
individual spending. When referring to accrued federal government deficits, the term "national
debt is used.

Government Budget
A government

budget is






proposed revenues and spending for a financial year that is often passed by the legislature,
approved by the chief executive or president and presented by the Finance Minister to the nation.
The budget is also known as the Annual Financial Statement of the country. This document
estimates the anticipated government revenues and government expenditures for the ensuing
(current) financial year.

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Three Sites of Government Budget

Revenues: Revenues are collected from the tax and non tax sources in case of government
budget. Tax sources are received from income and wealth of individual and corporations and
goods and services. Non-taxes sources are derived from income of government owned
corporations, central bank revenue and capital as external loans and debts from international
financial institutions.
Expenditures: Government expenses include spending on current goods and services, which
economists call government consumption; government investment expenditures such as
infrastructure investment or research expenditure; and transfer payments like unemployment or
retirement benefits.
Annual Development Programme: ADP is the operational document of the government one
year plan and includes all types of Government funded and Foreign Aided Projects which are
ongoing and newly included. The ADP consists of the main investment programme, technical
assistance programme and self-financed programme, which are sub-divided into the different
government sectors. The ADP is published in June and is available to the public.

Is budget deficit good or bad for a country?

A deficit budget good or bad depends on the prevailing economic conditions of a particular
economy. It is a talkative issue in the political economic area. There are some parameters to be
considered before considering a budget good or bad.

Budget Analysis 2016-17

When budget deficit is good?

When the economy is in a recession, deficit financing is used to purchase goods and services by
government or to reduce tax rate to ensure the smooth development of the economy and turn
back to its economic activity.
The deficit finance is also used in infrastructural development of the economy that helps
a better business environment thus flourishing the economy.
As the economy improves due to the deficit spending the outlook for businesses also
improves, and this can lead to increased investment, an effect known as crowding in.
When budget deficit is bad?
In a Deficit Budget the government has to borrow from the private sector. It does this by
asking the central bank to sell bonds and gilts to the private sector.
Selling bonds will increase the national debt; the annual interest payments will also
increase. This has a high opportunity cost because it requires future generations to pay
higher taxes.
In the future the government may have to increase taxes or cut spending in order to
reduce the deficit. This may cause reduced incentives to work.
If the government sells more bonds this is likely to cause interest rates to increase. This is
because they will need to increase interest rates in order to attract investors to buy the

Budget Analysis 2016-17

extra debt. If government interest rates increase, this will push up other interest rates as
Increased government borrowing may cause a decrease in the size of the private sector
investment known as crowding out effect.

Is budget deficit helpful for developing economy?

Usually we consider that a budget deficit is offensive for an economy, but it is not always true.
Sometimes the budget deficit can help to develop the economy of a developing country in many
ways. Budget deficit fosters industrial production both government and private sector in order to
recover deficit. Thus it increases economic growth of an economy of a developing country. It is
considered one of the positives of deficit spending. When a government spends excessively, it
can afford to buy infrastructure for the country. This, in turn, leads to employment of labor force.
As more money flows into the country, the overall economy growth rate accelerates. This is
especially useful during a recession, as this can stimulate jobs, increase businesses, private
investment ventures increase, and consequently, the nation's economy rises. Running a budget
deficit assures that the government bodies think twice before making unnecessary investments.
The interest rates matter as well, and a higher interest will force them to think of plans to pay
back the debt as soon as possible.

Does High Foreign Reserve Always Play an Important Role in Economy?

There is a growing debate about the need to hold so many reserves. Some critics point out that
holding a lot of reserves is costly. Critics also note that the yield on reserves is much lower than
the potential return they could earn by using those reserves to make real investments in the

Budget Analysis 2016-17

economy, such as building roads, bridges, and schools. Those who support holding large reserve
balances argue that the cost of doing so is small compared to the economic consequences of a
sharp depreciation in the value of the currency that is often associated with financial crises in
emerging markets. A reduction of the currency raises a countrys costs of paying back debt titled
in foreign currency as well as its costs of imported goods, and it also raises the scale of inflation.
With a large stockpile of foreign exchange reserves, a countrys monetary authority can buy up
its currency in the foreign capital markets, which helps to uphold its value. By having its own
ammunition to defend its currency in a crisis, a country with large holdings of reserves also
avoids being shut out of international capital markets due to concerns that the government or the
private sector will default on foreign debt payments. Therefore, these proponents argue, holding
large reserve stockpiles is wise policy for those occasions when defending the value of the
currency makes sense.
One of the important reason to increase foreign reserve is the governments desire to smooth
consumptionthat is, to spread out over time the costs of shocks, such as sudden outflows of
international capital when it faces difficulty raising funds either through international capital
markets (because investors recognize a high risk that the government or the private sector will
default) or through domestic tax collection.
Another reason leading to a buildup of reserves is loss aversion after the 1997-1998 Asian
financial crisis. Loss aversion is the tendency of people in the economy to be more sensitive to
reductions in their consumption than to increases. In our model, we modify a generalized
expected utility framework so that it attaches bigger weights to bad outcomes and smaller
weights to good outcomes.
Several factors may explain how much foreign exchange reserves a country wants to hold-

Budget Analysis 2016-17

One factor is related to the size of international financial transactions that occur there;
that is, reserves holdings are likely to increase both with the size of the countrys
population and with its standard of living.
Another factor is related to the instability of international receipts and payments, insofar
as reserves are intended to help cushion the economy; that is, reserve holdings are likely
to increase with more instability in a countrys export receipts.
A third factor is vulnerability to external shocks; reserve holdings are likely to increase
with a countrys average tendency to import, which is a measure of the economys
openness and vulnerability to external shocks.
Finally, a countrys tolerance for greater exchange rate flexibility should reduce its
demand for reserves, because its central bank would not need a large reserve stockpile to
manage a fixed exchange rate; therefore, reserve holdings are likely to be lower the more
variable the countrys exchange rate is.
Including some important needs there are also some drawbacks related to high foreign reserve The problem with holding foreign currency reserves is that they can lose their value.
Inflation erodes the value of currencies not fixed against gold (fiat exchange rates).
Therefore, a Central Bank will need to keep buying foreign reserves to maintain the same
purchasing power in markets. Also, there may have been many better (higher yielding
uses of the capital).
In theory a Central bank can make money through the appreciation of other currencies it
holds. However, many Central Banks have been losing money through the long term
decline in the value of the dollar. This particularly applies to China who have over $1900
billion of foreign reserves, mostly held in dollars.

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Budget allocation among different sector in 2016-17
Budget FY17 has been presented at a time when:
Accelerating economic growth, reducing poverty, and creating higher employment
opportunities are required to implement the 7th Five Year Plan
Formulation of action plan to implement the SDGs is underway and this would call for
reflections from the national budget perspective
A need for formulating LDC graduation strategy as Bangladesh is well positioned to
graduate from the group in next eight years or so
The objectives of the budget for FY17 appear to be:
High growth of revenue targeted for underwriting overreaching expenditure
Harmonization of taxes and tariff in line with the new VAT and SD Act 2012
Higher allocation for building physical infrastructure to enhance capacities
Enhanced allocation for social sector
Finance Minister Abul Maal Abdul Muhith presented the budget for fiscal year 2016-17
with an outlay of Tk 3.41 trillion in Parliament.
The new budget is 15.5 percent larger than the current FYs initial budget and 29 percent higher
than the revised outlay. The new budget is equivalent to 17.37 percent of Bangladeshs GDP,
which is Tk 19.61 trillion. The current FY budget represented 17.2 percent of the GDP. In the
new budget, Tk 1.17 trillion has been earmarked for development expenditure, including Tk 1.11
trillion for the Annual Development Program (ADP).

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Non-development expenditure has been set at Tk 2.16 trillion, 32 percent higher than the current
FYs figure. A large portion of the non-development budget will be spent on salaries, allowances
and pension benefit of government employees. Foreign borrowing will also be repaid from the
non-development budget.
The finance minister has plans to collect Tk 2.43 trillion, or 71 percent of the budget amount,
from the revenue sector. Of the figure, Tk 2.03 trillion will be raised through the National Board
of Revenue.
The highest amount of Tk 727.64 billion has been projected to come from Value Added Tax
(VAT) which is 35 percent higher than the current budget figure. A revenue collection target of
Tk 642.62 billion was set from VAT in the initial budget for the current FY, but it was later
downsized to Tk 539.13 billion in the revised budget.







Description (Taka in Crore)

Revenue and Foreign Grants

Revenues (Statement I)
Tax Revenue
NBR Tax Revenue
Non-NBR Tax Revenue
Non-Tax Revenue
Foreign Grants/1 (Statement V)
Total :























Budget Analysis 2016-17

Non-Development Expenditure
















Non-Development Capital Expenditure/2 (Statement IV)




Net Outlay for Food Account Operation/3 (Statement VIII)

- 594





















Non-Development Revenue Expenditure (Statement III)

of which
Domestic Interest
Foreign Interest

Loans & Advances (Net)/4 (Statement VIA)

Development Expenditure
Development Programs Financed from Revenue Budget/5
(Statement IV)
Non-ADP Project (Statement VIA)
Annual Development Program/6 (Statement IX)
Non-ADP FFW and Transfer/7 (Statement X)
Total - Expenditure :


Overall Deficit (Including Grants) :

(In percent of GDP) :


- 4.7

Overall Deficit (Excluding Grants) :

(In percent of GDP) :



- 82,138

- 4.7

- 87,165

- 5.0

- 5.0




- 80,857

- 4.7

- 86,657

- 5.0

Description (Taka in Crore)




Foreign Borrowing-Net
Foreign Borrowing (Statement V)
Amortization (Statement IX)
Domestic Borrowing (Statement VIB)
Borrowing from Banking System (Net)







8,158 -

7,084 -








Budget Analysis 2016-17

Long-Term Debt (Net)



Short-Term Debt (Net)




Non-Bank Borrowing (Net)
















National Savings Schemes (Net)

Others/8 (Statement VII)
Total - Financing :


Memorandum Item :

Different sources of revenue for the proposed budget

FY17 budget targets additional Tk.65, 351 crore revenue with a 35.4% growth over
NBR to take the lead role (accounting for 81.3% of incremental revenue) with 35.4%
30.8% of incremental revenue from income tax; while 28.8% from VAT.
Two-third of total income tax will be collected from companies. Belated implementation
of new VAT act will pose serious challenge.
Import duty collection growth target is set at 31.1%
Non-NBR revenue (non-tax plus non-NBR tax) growth for FY17 is at a very ambitious

level (44.5%). Much will depend on mobile spectrum fee.

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Sources of resources collection

Allocation of resources

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Under such a scenario required growth rate for revenue in FY17 may shoot up to around 44.5%
(from 36.8%), while for NBR the actual target may stand around 41.1% (from 35.4%). Such a
high growth rates were never achieved before.

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Share of domestic financing is 62.9% (71.3% in RBFY16)

Tk. 38,938 crore (39.4%) will come from the bank borrowing (36.3% in RBFY16)
Tk. 22,610 crore (23.1%) will come from non-bank sources (35% in RBFY16)
Share of foreign financing will be 37.1% in FY17 (28.7% in RB of FY16)
Gross foreign aid requirement will be around USD 5.7 billion (USD 3.2 billion in
RBFY16) an almost impossible target in view of only USD 2.1 billion being received
during Jul-Feb FY16
Much will depend on project aid utilization of ADP: 89.4% of total foreign resources are
for ADP projects
Government should take more advantage of low cost funding

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Sector wise impact of budget
Sector Wise Impact of the Proposed Budget
Banking Sector

For the purpose of recapitalizing state-owned banks capital

proposed budget will set aside BDT 20 billion to reform the
Government of Bangladesh targets to borrow BDT 389.4
billion from banking sector in the FY2016-17.
Proposed tax rate for banking sector remains unchanged which
was 40 percent in FY 2015-16.

Cement and Real Estate


15% custom duty under new slab and package VAT system
will influence small construction firms operation but reduced
price of fly ash, filter and vanga will reduce the construction
costs to some extent.
To promote real estate peripheral to city corporation, FY 201617 budgets proposed lower source tax for construction
20% revenue duty will be imposed on alloy steel, primary
forms and semi-finished goods production. Besides revenue
duty of 3% will also be imposed on steel bar and angle which
will increase construction costs.

Engineering Sector

Finance minister proposed 45% supplementary duty on bars

and rods, hot-rolled, cold-rolled of iron or non-alloy steel

Budget Analysis 2016-17

which will adversely affect other sectors operation too.
By fixing the price of Billet as BDT 31,200 per ton finance
minister proposed 20% revenue duty and 15% VAT on the
import of Billet.
Fuel and Energy

Fuel and energy sector has allocated 13.5% of total ADP where
it was 18.2% in FY 2015-16. Besides finance minister
indicated that industrial gas supply wont become available
before 2018.
Custom duty on LPG cylinder of plastic and glass fiber import
is reduced to 10% which was 25% in FY 2015-16 thus this will
adversely affect domestic LPG cylinder suppliers operation.

Food and Allied

Custom duty has increased to 15% for corn flour, wheat starch
and potato starch imports from existing 10% where 25%
import duty will be charged for corn starch import.
Import duty for urea fertilizer will have been reduced to 15%
from its current level i.e. 25%. Besides the price of poultry
feed will also be reduced in coming FY.

Information and

Increased supplementary duty from 3.0% to 5.0% on call and


data services will directly increase the cost of end users


consequently negatively impact the average minute per user

while calling or using data. This will possibly hinder revenue
growth of telecom service providers.
Minimum tax for Mobile phone operators has been increased

Budget Analysis 2016-17

from 0.3% to 0.6%. This will increase the tax burden for
companies who are yet to enter into the operation.
10% supplementary duty on the import of optical fibers and
other wires which is currently 0% will increase the operation
cost of telecom service providers.
Manufacturing Sector

Minimum tax has been increased from 0.3% to 0.6% of

turnover for manufacturing companies.
Tax exempted turnover for SME has been increased to 3.6
million which was 3 Million in FY 2015-16.

Pharmaceuticals and
Chemical Sector

Supplementary duty of 30% on imported stability/humidity

chamber is withdrawn thus will be 0% in FY 2016-17.
Custom duty of 25% on special type laboratory refrigerator is
reduced to 10%.
Price of Ultrasonography and ECG paper will be increased
whereas the price of Ambulance for transporting patient and
dead body will be reduced.


Source tax for export-oriented sector will rise to 1.5% from its
current level of 0.60%.
Corporate tax has been reduced to 20% for RMG
manufacturers which is 35% for non-listed RMG Company
and 25% for listed.
BDT 40 billion (excluding 5 billion for jute products) will be

Budget Analysis 2016-17

allocated as an incentive for exporting RMG products.
Withdrawing Vat from dyeing, printing, finishing and
calendaring of grey fabrics has also been proposed in FY
2016-17s budget.
Stripping chemicals will be supposed to give 10% duty which
is 15% now and this reduction also includes 5% duty for flax
fiber and spandex which is10% now.
Custom duty will be increased to 5.0% from current 3% on
chemicals and other inputs or raw materials imported by textile

Corporate income tax for Cigarette, bidi, zarda, chewing

tobacco, gul or any other tobacco products manufacturers has
been increased to 45% which is 25%/35% now.
Minimum tax rates for cigarette, bidi, zarda, chewing tobacco,
gul, and other smokeless tobaccos producers have increased
from 0.3% to 1.0%.
Supplementary duty will increase for all slabs of cigarettes
which will increase end customer price per cigarette.

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Different strategies of fiscal policy to enhance the collection method of
Usually the following techniques are used to enhance the collection methods of revenue of a
country: Increase the number of customers.
Increase the average transaction size.
Increase the frequency of transaction per customer.
Raise prices.
Sales-basis Method.
Percentage-of-completion method
Completed-contract method.
Installment method.
Focus resources on improved auditing, processes, and tools
Use simple segmentation to identify larger collection opportunities
Target collections in the tax offices with the largest outstanding debts
Ensure regular updates to the taxpayer registry
Introduce account managers to oversee large taxpayers
Use electronic channels for simple transactions
Communicate the benefits of the quick wins widely
Analyze opportunities to close tax loopholes
Simplify the tax system to encourage formalization
Create external checks that enforce compliance

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Reform measures mentioned in Budget FY17
Public Financial Management Reform Strategy 2016-21 which includes Budget and
Accounts Classification System (BACS) and Integrated Budget and Accounting System
(iBAS ++)
Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) System in NBR
Tax Deduction at-source Zones
Electronic at-source tax management system
Automated Tax Information Unit
Separate unit in NBR for dealing with transfer mispricing, taxation of foreign nations and
combating money laundering
Complete automation of VAT System under the VAT online Project (VoP)
Establishment of new land management system
Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) System has been introduced
National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) has been formulated Minimum
Tax System proposed
Machine Readable Returns, Forms and Certificates introduced
Initiatives taken to establish Land Information Service Centers
Financial Reporting Council to be constituted in FY17

Budget Analysis 2016-17

VAT and SD Act, 2012 will gradually be implemented
Direct Tax Act, 2018 declared
Contributory Pension Scheme introduced in public sector
National Integrity Strategy has been formulated
Guidelines for Preparing Voluntary Information Disclosure Manual will be formulated
for all office in public sector

Challenges to implement the budget:

Implementation of budget for FY17 will continue to face a number of familiar challenges.
Attaining the proposed fiscal framework for FY17 is going to be an uphill task because of
Inability to mobilize the targeted domestic resources
Inability to spend the earmarked allocation
Failing to use foreign aid in the pipeline and opting for no concessional foreign
Quality of public expenditure will continue to remain suspected
Structural and institutional weaknesses continue to stand between the nation and its potential
achievements. The vision is not supported by courage and innovation in this regard

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Drawbacks, Findings and Recommendation
Budget Allocation (Drawbacks)
As a big budget applied to next fiscal year & important to our economy, government has drawn
Quantitative & analytical analysis to make it possible. During analyzing this budget, I have
found some drawbacks that can badly affect to our economy & society.
As import duty imposes more on importing medical instruments, medical service will be
costly. Though there is an increase in Education & health sector, as a questionable
performance in recent, there is also some risk in using this budget properly.
To collect this huge revenue, we have to depend on NBR. But this organization is not
well enough skilled & organized to collect this enormous revenue.
Bureaucracy & corruption are the major obstacles to apply this budget.
As the value of money is overvalued, there is a negative impact on export revenue.
As private investment is not well enough, the pace of job creation will slow down.
Government will cover deficit budget by taking local loan. That initiates the speed of
increasing interest as well as non-development cost.
In this budget, no instruction is provided about how private investment will be increased.
According to this budget, lots of job will be created. As private investment isnt well
enough, this will be questionable.
There is a target of achieving 10% fund through remittance. This target is impossible as
money is overvalued day by day through inflation.
More money is used in non-developing sector. This will hinder the development goals.

Budget Analysis 2016-17

In this Budget, Government will make huge investment in stock market & banking sector
to accelerate GDP growth. But current market situation isnt well competent as there is an
unrest situation.
Tax rebates in private investment has lessened from30% to 20% .This change may
negatively impact on investment target.
Tax hike in all types of exported product may negatively influence on export revenue.
Though budget allocation in agricultural sector has increased, that is not well enough to
Most of the projects undertaken by ADP are city- centered. That will hinder the
decentralization of development. (around 57% projects applies in Dhaka city)

Budget Allocation (Recommendation)

To apply this budget, some flourishes are needed in budgetary planning & performance. During
my finding I want to put some recommendation for these adjustments.
Education & Health sector should be authorized more accurately so that this budget will
be properly used.
More VAT can be applied in Tobacco products. These will reduce social cost as well as
health costing. NBR should make more organized planning to collect revenue from
people. They should expand the range of collecting revenue.
If possible, taxation system should be re-organized or re-constructed to boost up the
revenue collection. Strong public administration is required for taking out bureaucracy &
special law should be imposed to clear corruption. But public awareness is most

Budget Analysis 2016-17

More importance should be given on private investment to achieve targeted GDP growth.
Thats why government has to take initiatives to influence people. Tax deduction,
maximizing depreciation & such initiatives is needed.
To fund deficit budget, government can use foreign endowment to less the financing cost.
Scope of collecting foreign help have to be utilized & made proper use as these funds
doesnt need to return.
Skilled governance on Stock market & Banking sector should be made to influence the
private investment.
Revenue collection method should be modernized & expanded throughout the mass
More development projects should be applied to accelerate decentralized development.
More allocation is needed in Social security & Defense to develop & modernize in
accordance with the current unrest situation. More reconciliation is needed in LGRD
sector so that revenue collection & resource appliance will be more efficient.
In big budgeted project, local sector should be given more priority for financing (Such as
PPP) rather than taking high costly foreign loans.
Number of taxpayer should be increased rather than imposing more tax upon existing
Ensure greater involvement of parliamentary standing committees in formulating and
overseeing implementation of the budget
Provide quarterly reports on budget implementation in Parliament (The Finance Minister
missed out 11 out of 21)
Establish an effective result-based-monitoring system to ensure high quality delivery

Budget Analysis 2016-17

Make closing fiscal framework figures of elapsing fiscal year (FY16) available at the
earliest and revise budget for FY17 at an early stage

Concluding Remarks
Bring more transparency in budget formulation, implementation and assessment procedures:
Establish a Public Expenditure Review Commission
Formulate appropriate follow up mechanisms for monitoring government tax incentives
Disclose financial accounts of state-owned enterprises including BPC and contingent
liabilities in detail
Establish transparency in governments asset acquisition
Formulate an appropriate foreign aid policy in view of the changed global aid
architecture and Bangladesh becoming the (lower) middle income country
More sunshine in defense economy
Introduce separate but integrated budget for local government
Integrate NGO financing in the public expenditure structure