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362
SOCIAL FORCES
to be highly correlated and significantly correlated, in general, with bigotry in the populations studied. Furthermore only selected
aspects of religiosity were found to be related
DAVID L. WESTBY
ABSTRACT
Studies of adolescent career orientations provide consistent support for the propositions
that educational expectations vary positively with the level of parental occupation and education, the frequency of parental educational encouragement, and negatively with family size.
Since each of these four variables is intercorrelatedit is possible that one or more of the zeroorder associations may be totally or partially artifactual in nature. The use of Rosenberg's
test factor standardizationtechnique to generate third-order partials on survey data collected
from 2,852 urban high school sophomore males indicates that this is not the case. From the
analysis a provisional causal model is constructed. The roles of parental encouragement and
of family size in the model receive particular attention.
INTRODUCTION
William Sewell et al., "Social Status and Educational and Occupational Aspiration,)' American
Sociological Review, 22 (February 1957), pp. 67-
Review, 29
Graders," American
Sociological
Review,
Review,
29 (De-
363
In the analyses which follow a series of thirdorder partials are used to evaluate the associaYork: Rinehart & Co., 1962); Richard L. Simp- tion of each of the four predictor variables
son, "Parental Influence,Anticipatory Socialization, with the dependent variable. If the original
and Social Mobility," Amnerican Sociological Rezero-order association completely disappears we
view, 27 (August 1962), pp. 517-522.
shall conclude that the bivariate relationship is
:5 See, for example, A. H. Halsey and L. Gardner, "Selectionfor Secondary Schools and Achieve- an artifact of the relationship of educational exment in Four Grammar Schools," British Journal pectations with one or more of the other predictor variables which is (are) in turn related
of Sociology (1953), pp. 60-75; Lipset and Bendix,
op. cit., F. M. Martin, "An Inquiry into Parents' to the particular independent variable under
Preferences in Secondary Education," in David V. analysis. If the association of the predictor
Glass (ed.), Social Mobility in Britain (London:
variable with the dependent variable is reduced
Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1954), pp. 160-174.
but not eliminated we shall conclude that the
seph A. Kahl, The American Class Structure (New
7 Lipset
364
SOCIAL FORCES
ADOLESCENT
TABLE 1. EDUCATIONAL
EDUCATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS,
EXPECTATIONS
BY OCCUPATION OF FATIHERa
365
(in percentages)
16+
14
12
11-
84
10
100
(109)
72
15
10
100
(165)
56
21
21
100
(401)
47
30
22
20
22
25
25
21
29
43
48
51
1
2
4
6
1
0
2
2
100
100
101
100
(558)
(835)
(530)
(254)
100
(2852)
N.R. Total
Sum
gamma= .5020b
Totals ..........
39
22
36
&Occupationof father is classified according to the occupational category system of HolliDgshead's Two Factor Index of BSocialPosition. See August B
Hollingshead The Two Factor Index of Social Pos ition (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1957), nimeo.
and Blue-Collar and with Gependent variable contaiDing levels 16+, 14,
variable d iLbotonizedinto White-Collar
bgammacomputedwithindependent
CONSIDERING
your abilities, grades, financial
resources, etc., how far do you actually EXPECT
to go in school?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
1964 (males) who, six months following graduation were actually attending college (35%o) indicated that the item was eliciting rather valid responses.
15 Leo A. Goodman and William H. Kruskal,
"Measures of Association for Cross Classifications,"
SOCIAL FORCES
366
(in percentages)
EducationalExpectations(in years)
Sum
11- N. R. Total
Educationof Father
16+
14
12
Graduateor ProfessionalTraining.......................
..............
StandardCollegeor UniversityGraduation
PartialCollegeTraining(includestechnicalschools,etc.)...
................................
High SchoolGraduates
PartialHigh School...................................
JuniorHigh School....................................
Less than SevenYearsof School........................
Not Reported........................................
79
65
61
43
26
27
24
21
9
18
22
23
24
23
23
21
2
1
8
1
1
15
1
0
15
0
1
33
1
46
3
2
47
1
1
4
47
7
47
3
gamma=.4270b
Totals..
39
22
36
99
100
99
100
100
100
99
99
( 95)
100
(2852)
(188)
(280)
(942)
(600)
(340)
(158)
(249)
TABLE
3.
(in percentages)
EducationalExpectations(in years)
Frequencyof ParentalEncouragement
16+
14
12
11- N. R. Total
Sum
HighestFrequency:
7.........................
64
21
13
101
(619)
6 ..............................
5 .44 .........................
50
28
21
100
(313)
LowestFrequency:
Not Reported
4.30 .........................
3.16 .........................
2.10 .........................
1.........................
.......................
13
28
25
29
17
16
7
21
29
38
62
68
73
42
1
3
3
5
4
6
1
0
1
1
3
3
100
100
99
100
100
100
(721)
(354)
(414)
(152)
(157)
(122)
gamma=.6064a
Totals...............................................
39
22
36
100
(2852)
(frequency
levels
into HighEncouragement
(frequencylevels7, 6, and 5) andLowEncouragement
with independentvariabledichotomized
agamma
4, 3, 2 and 1) and with dependentvariablecontaininglevels 16+, 14, 12 and 11- but with the"No Responses"excludea.
TABLE
4.
(in percentages)
EducationalExpectations(in years)
Family Size
One.....................................47
Two............................................
Three...............................................
Four................................................
Five...........................................
Six...........................................
Seven...........................................
Eight ............................................
Nine or more.........................................
16+
14
12
47
40
36
29
30
23
23
21
22
25
23
20
11
26
30
35
36
43
46
55
2
1
2
2
3
2
8
22
16
57
26
58
-].1 N. R. Total
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
99
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
100
Sum
(324)
(779)
(668)
(442)
(287)
(178)
(96)
(54)
(31)
gamma= .2568a
Totals ..............................
39
22
36
100
(2852)
ADOLESCENT
EDUCATIONAL
AMONG
THE
VARIABLES
Table 5 displays in percentage form the relationship of each predictor variable with the
16 For a discussion of measures of association
yielding proportional reduction in error estimates,
see Herbert L. Costner, "Criteria for Measures of
EXPECTATIONS
TABLE
5.
PENDENT
MARGINAL
367
RELATIONSHIPS
OF FOUR INDE-
EDUCATIONAL
(in percentages)
13+
12
11-
Total
Na
38
9
39
34
33
57
100
100
(1152)
(1448)
gamma= .6229
High
Low
71
52
29
48
Total
100
100
gamna= .3797
(1191)
(1539)
Total
4
100
8
100
gamma=-.1883
29
34
(1233)
(1618)
High
Low
Total
66
54
39
34
46
61
100
100
100
(1683)
( 873)
(174)
gamma= -.2854
High
Low
Total
75
63
54
25
37
46
100
100
100
gamma= .2816
( 553)
( 917)
(1050)
64
66
59
32
30
32
Total
4
100
4
100
9
100
gamma=-.0546
N
( 563)
( 942)
(1098)
fromcalculation
aTotalN's willvarydue to exclusionof nonresponses
of gamma.
SOCIAL FORCES
368
TABLE
6.
GAMMA
MATRIX
OF INTERCORRELATIONS
Occupation
Education of
Father
Parental
Encouragement
Family
Size
0.623
0.380
{.185
0.502
0.282
-0.055
0.427
-0.285
0.606
-0.257
16+
Occupation
White-Collar
Blue-Collar
Educ. of Father
13+ Years
12 Years
11- Years
Family Size
Small
Large
Parental Encouragement
High
Low
Standardized
12
11- Total
14
Zero-Order
12
11- Total
16+
14
57
26
22
1
20
24
46
3
gamma= .5020
100
99
(1223)
(1599)
66
43
26
14
1
19
1
33
23
3
24
47
gamma .4270
100
100
100
45
31
32
22
1
4
43
23
gamma=- .2568
100
101
(1749)
(1064)
53
19
22
24
1
4
20
57
gamma= .6064
100
100
(1639)
(1065)
555)
(937)
(1086)
We now present a series of third-order partials for a test of Hypothesis 2; namely, that all
zero-order associations persist even though
three test factors are statistically controlled.
Inasmuch as many of the variables are measured ordinally and are distributed nonnormally, the statistical techniques used to calculate the various zero-and-n-order degrees of
association should be nonparametric in nature.
Consequently, Rosenberg's test factor stan-
ADOLESCENT
EDUCATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS
369
TABLE
HOLLINGSHEAD
SES
Type of
Expectation
High
Moderate
Low
Avge.
Educational
Occupational
Educational
Occupational
Educational
Occupational
Educational
Occupational
83
79
68
68
48
52
31
38
70
67
49
51
25
35
21
29
65
65
21
32
12
22
6
10
79
76
58
59
35
41
20
26
Educational
Occupational
54
56
31
38
13
21
40
44
SOCIAL FORCES
370
FIGURE
1.
ADOLESCENT EDUCATIONAL
ciation of educational expectations with parental encouragement from .61 to .50 suggests that
of the four predictor variables, parental educational encouragement makes the largest contribution to the explanation of the variance in
adolescent educational expectations.
In brief, Table 7 demonstrates that although
the four independent variables are intercorrelated, none of the zero-order associations can
be attributed entirely to the fact of their intercorrelation, thus confirming Hypothesis 2 that
each zero-order association persists when the
three other appropriate variables are statistically controlled.
EXPECTATIONS:
A PROVISIONAL
MODEL
DISCUSSION
ADOLESCENT
EDUCATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS
371
372
SOCIAL FORCES
TABLE
9.
Familyc Size
Small
Medium
Large
I and II ..........................
Averages
Small
Medium
Large
III..........................
Averages
IV ..............
...........
Small
Medium
Large
Averages
Small
Medium
Large
V ...........................
Averages
Small
Medium
Large
Averages
High
Moderate
Low
Total
73
76
77
14
15
14
14
9
9
101
100
100
81
89
44
75
14
11
100
214
72
64
58
18
19
25
10
17
17
100
100
100
249
207
102
66
20
14
100
558
64
55
45
17
21
22
19
24
33
100
100
100
500
546
283
56
20
24
100
1329
50
41
35
26
22
23
24
37
42
100
100
100
208
229
191
42
23
35
100
628
64
55
46
18
20
22
18
24
32
100
99
100
1038
1071
620
57
20
23
100
2729
sHoUingshead, 1957.
bEncouragement measured as in Table 8.
oFamily Size: Small= 1 or 2 children
Medium=3 or 4 children
Large=5 or more children.
ADOLESCENT
EDUCATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS
373
Familyc Size
I and II ..................
Small
Medium
Large
Averages
Small
Medium
Large
III..
Averages
Small
Medium
Large
IV ....................
Averages
V ................
...
Small
Medium
Large
Averages
Small
Medium
Large
Averages
High
Moderate
Low
Average
86
85
71
82
77
33
64
75
50
83
83
64
67/81
74/89
28/44
83
70
65
79
169/214
70
68
61
57
55
27
23
20
18
63
57
45
157/249
119/207
46/102
68
49
20
58
322/558
54
47
36
27
27
21
18
11
8
42
34
23
212/500
186/546
65/283
48
25
12
35
463/1329
42
23
25
25
22
14
10
4
5
30
16
14
62/208
36/229
27/191
31
21
20
125/628
59
53
43
37
34
20
19
12
8
48
39
27
498/1038
415/1071
166/620
54
31
13
39
1079/2729
aHollingshead, 1957.
bEncouragement measured as in Tables 8 and 9.
oFamily Size measured as in Table 9.
64 percent of the respondents from small families report a high frequency of encouragement,
only 46 percent of the respondents from large
families report the same frequency. The pattern for low encouragement is just the reverse.
When this relationship is examined with a control for social status the same pattern is evident in all strata except the upper middle (I
and II), indicating a degree of statistical interaction that merits additional study. Thus, as
stated, the larger the family the lower the
frequency of encouragement.
In Table 10 are the data relevant to the
proposition that as family size increases the
effectiveness of a given frequency of parental
encouragement decreases. At the base of the
table it can be seen that high encouragement
is most effective when exerted in small-size
families (59 percent of the respondents reporting college expectations) and least effective
when exerted in large-size families (43 percent
374
SOCIAL FORCES
of the respondents reporting college expectations). As the remainder of the table illustrates,
this relationship is not removed by a control
for social status.
SUMMARY
With data collected from 2,852 male sophomores in six middle-sized Pennsylvania cities,
this paper has analyzed the relationship to
adolescent educational expectations of father's
education, occupation, parental educational encouragement, and family size. Using Rosenberg's test factor standardization technique of
nonparametric tabular partial analysis, it was
concluded that each of these four predictor
variables remains independently associated
with the dependent variable when the appropriate other three are statistically controlled.
On the basis of this analysis of partials, a
provisional model of causal sequence was constructed. The model posits that the father's
education is a partial determinant of his occupation and hence of the social status of the
family, that paternal education and occupation
influence adolescent educational expectancies
both through parental encouragement and independently of it, and that the larger the family
the greater the reduction not only in the frequency which the parents encourage their children to continue their education beyond high
school but also in the effectiveness of any given
frequency level of parental educational encouragement as well.
SAFILIOS-ROTHSCHILD