Impact of Climate Change On Resrevior Operation Policies - The Case of Aswan High Dam Reservoir

International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)
Volume 7, Issue 2, March-April 2016, pp. 107116, Article ID: IJCIET_07_02_008

Available online at
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=7&IType=2
Journal Impact Factor (2016): 9.7820 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com
ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316
IAEME Publication
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

RESREVIOR OPERATION POLICIES THE
CASE OF ASWAN HIGH DAM RESERVOIR
Mohamed Ayman El Salawy
Professor at Irrigation and Hydraulic Department,
El Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
Tamer Ali Elgohary
Associate Professor at Civil Department CIC (Canadian International College),
Cairo, Egypt
Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher
Assistant Professor at Irrigation and Hydraulic Department,
El Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
Mai Mahmmoud Abd El Aziz
Assistant Lecturer at Civil Department, Tenth of Ramadan Higher Technological
Institute, Tenth of Ramadan City, Egypt
ABSTRACT
In 1960 after the beginning of the construction of Aswan High Dam a
great Reservoir (AHDR) was formed as a result of it for the purposes of flood
control, hydropower production and water storage. The reservoir is of 550 km
long and of 350 km2 surface area which is located on the border between
Egypt and Sudan. The Aswan high dam reservoir (AHDR) is so important for
Egypt because it represent a safe valve against draught and water needs
shortage for country future. Also It control the Nile river flood each year to
avoid its destructive damage by storage the water exceeding amount which
exceed the Nile river stream capacity downstream the Aswan high dam. In this
research our goal was to study the AHDR operation under the effect of
different scenarios of climate changes, These different scenarios included
rainfall, evaporation, temperature , changing water reservoir level at (1m)
and inflow to AHDR. This was achieved by using mathematical model which
represent the whole work frame and the reservoir parameters. At the end a set
of charts of :frequency curves of annual releases from the AHDR were found
for Sensitivity of water supply releases, evaporation losses, Toshka spillway,
Hydropower and level variation to climate change. Also a group of
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp
107
editor@iaeme.com
Mohamed Ayman El Salawy, Tamer Ali Elgohary, Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher and Mai
Mahmmoud Abd El Aziz
recommendations were deduced in order to give the appropriate constrains

for operating AHDR under the expected climate changes scenarios.
Key words: Egypt High Dam, Aswan High Dam Reservoir, Reservoir
Operation Policy, Reservoir Inflow Sensitivity, Climate Changes Impact.
Cite this Article: Mohamed Ayman El Salawy, Tamer Ali Elgohary, Amir
Mohamed Akl Mobasher and Mai Mahmmoud Abd El Aziz, Impact of
Climate Change on Resrevior Operation Policies The Case of Aswan High
Dam Reservoir, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology,
7(2), 2016, pp. 107116.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=7&IType=2
1. INTRODUCTION
Aswan high dam was constructed on Nile river at Aswan city kilometer 551 D.S of
Assiut Barrage of height 111 m from Nile bed and width of 520 m at bottom. As a
result of the dam construction which have been started in 1960 and ended in 1972 a
great reservoir was found upstream the dam. The AHDR occupied an area of 6500
km2 with highest level behind the dam of 182m. The reservoir of 350 km long from
Aswan city to Sudan borders and of maximum width of 35 km.
The annual carry over capacity of the reservoirs is of 168.5 102 m3 per year
(Ministry of water resources and irrigation, 2005) ]1[ .The Aswan high dam and its
reservoir were used to produce electric hydro power and to supply Egypt water needs
which include irrigation, industrial activities and population water demands.
Egypt depends on the Nile river to get out 55 m 3per year which contribute more
than 97% of its water needs. Egypt water resources are consisted from different
sources as shown in the following table (1).
Table.1 Egypt water resources
Water Resources and Extraction in Egypt
Type of Water Resources
Quantity in billion m per year
Nile River
56.8
Precipitation
1.8
Fossil Groundwater Extraction
Sea Water Desalination
0.1
Sum
59.7
Reuse of Spilled Water Resources
Renewable Groundwater Extraction
2.3
Wastewater Reuse
2.9
Agricultural Drainage Reuse
7.5
Sum
12.7
Climate changes such as temperature and rain precipitation has a significant

impact on Nile river basin as shown in fig(1) (Strzepek and Yates, 2000) ]2[ .
108
editor@iaeme.com
Impact of Climate Change on Resrevior Operation Policies The Case of Aswan High Dam
Reservoir
For example An increase of 10% of average annual precipitation would lead to an

average increase in annual flow of 40%. Similarly, a decrease in 10% in precipitation
would lead to a reduction of the annual flow with more than 50% (Ministry of water
resources and irrigation, 2005) [1].
In our study we were curious to find the relation between climate changes and its
effect on AHDR performance. The performance was measured as a function of
AHDR hydro power and its annual release discharge downstream operation policy.
2. THE CURRENT RESERVOIR OPERATION POLICY

The Ministry of Water Resources and irrigation stated AHDR operation policy
constrains as follow:
1. Maximum allowed water outflow should not exceed 250-300 x 106 m3/day to avoid
excessive erosion and bank overtopping.
2. The water levels upstream Aswan High Dam should be kept at 175.00 m at the
beginning of water year (August 1st) to fulfill high and low flow requirements.
3. The minimum allowed water discharges should be released to fulfill irrigation,
navigation, drinking and other requirements and Sudan abstractions (Sadek and Aziz,
2005) [3].
3. INFLOW AT AHDR
The inflow at AHDR as it was recorded by Dongola recording station in Sudan from
year 1910 to year 1994 as shown in fig (2), Fig (2) shows that the mean flow varied
significantly depending upon the period considered, the mean annual flow from 19121964 (before operation of AHD) was 2754 m3/s (86.86 x 109 m3) with a standard
deviation of 398 m3/s (12.56 x 109 m3). The mean annual flow from 1965-1994 (after
operation of AHD), on the other hand, was 2214 m 3/s (69.81 x 109 m3) with a
standard deviation of 443 m3/s (13.98 x 109 m3) (Yao and Georgakakos, 2003 )[4].
109
editor@iaeme.com
4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

The climate changes scenarios and its impact on Nile river flow depends on many
assumptions as follow:
1. The growing population and the expected reductions of the Nile water due to
competition among the eastern Nile countries were used to predict AHDR future
inflow.
2. The wetting and drying predictions under increasing demands due to raised
temperature as well were used also to predict AHDR future inflow.
These assumptions was stated to predict AHDR inflow changes through future
times, 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 as shown in table(2) (M Nour El-Din, 2013) [5].
Table.2 Summary of assumptions used in developing the water budget trends
water budget trends
2025
2050
2075
2100
Estimated % change in Nile Flows Drying Scenario
-6%
-15%
-20%
-31%
Estimated % change in Nile Flows Wetting Scenario
+10%
+21%
+24%
+27
10.50
13
Water Cuts due to Upstream Dams (billion m3/yr)
110
editor@iaeme.com
Reservoir
5. THE MODELING APPROACH GOVERNING EQUATIONS

The AHDR is modeled and its operation is simulated by a group of governing
equations which describes the water balance of the reservoir under various constraints
concerning storage volume, outflow from the reservoir and water losses as shown in
fig.( 3). The water balance equation applied on a monthly basis has the following
form:
nout
dV (t ) nin
Qin,i Qout, j
dt
i 1
j 1
(1)
(2)
dV (t )
I t Qt M t Dt Tt S t Et
dt
Where:
It : Mean inflow to the storage in month t (m 3).
Qt : Amount of water discharged from the storage in month t downstream the dam
(m3).
Mt : Amount of water released from the emergency spillway in the dam in month t
(m3).
Dt : The water demand for Toshka project (South Valley) in month t (m 3).
Tt : Amount of water released from Toshka spillway in month t (m 3).
St : Seepage losses from the storage reservoir in month t (m 3).
Et : Mean evaporation from the storage reservoir in month t (m 3).
Et = ((At + At+1) / 2) * Ct*1000
At : Reservoir area at beginning of month t (km2).
At+1 : Reservoir area as at the end of month t (km2).
Ct : Evaporation coefficient pertaining to month t (mm).
Fig .3 Management of the AHDR
111
editor@iaeme.com
The model also includes an equation which computes the potential monthly
hydropower production as a function of three factors, (1) the volume of water
discharged, (2) the gross head of this water, and (3) the efficiency of the couple
turbine generator, which varies the amount of power produced. The following
functional form represents this relationship:
Pt= 9.81 * Ht * Qt * Ce (3)
Et = Pt * Kt (4)
Where:
Pt : Power generated in month t (kW).
Et : Energy generated in month t (kWh).
Qt : Amount of water for energy generation in month t (m 3)
Ht : Average height of water above turbines in month t (m) (reservoir monthly mean
water level - 110) which assumed to be the constant level downstream of AHD (The
water level downstream AHD ranges between 107.5 and 113 m above sea levels [5].
Ce : Efficiency coefficient of turbines and generators (0.85).
Kt : Number of hours in t month (24* number of hours in month t ) (hours).
6. SCENARIO ASSESSMENTS
The future hydrologic scenarios developed have been used to assess the expected
impacts to potential climate change. In the following discussion, the assessment
results are summarized relative to the following criteria: water supply releases,
reservoir level variations, Toshka spillway discharges, evaporation losses and
Hydropower production.
6.1. Sensitivity of water supply releases to climate change

Under baseline climate scenario, Egypt falls short of its target demand in
approximately 31 % of years. This percentage to -6 (+10) % of years for the period I
DRY (WET) emissions scenario, and to -15(+21) % of years for the period II DRY
(WET). In contrast, during period III this percentage significantly to reaches to -20
(+24) % of years for two global emission scenarios DRY (WET), during period IV
this percentage significantly to reaches to -31 (+27) % of years for two global
emission scenarios DRY (WET) as shown in fig.(5).
There is a significant probability, the withdrawal from the AHDR stops during
period III and IV DRY for many months due to the reservoir levels decreasing as a
result of the serious reduction in the amount of water entering the reservoir. The mean
annual withdrawal from the AHDR for the three periods (period I (2025), period II
(2050), and period III (2075)) and two global emission scenarios DRY (WET) are
52.17 (61.05), 47.18 (67.16) ,44.4 (68.82) and 38.3(70.49) BCM, respectively,
compared to the baseline release of 55.5 BCM.
But according to change in level for AHDR by (-1m) in dry scenarios, there is an
increasing in annual releases from the AHDR. But for changing in level for AHDR by
(+1 m) in wet scenarios, there is a decreasing in annual releases from the AHDR.
112
editor@iaeme.com
Reservoir
90
S1-"BASE LINE"-LEVEL175
S1-"2025-DRY"-LEVEL175
S1-"2025-WET"-LEVEL175
release from the AHD (BCM)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
cumulative frequency (%)
70
80
90
Fig.4: frequency curve of annual releases from the AHDR
6.2. Sensitivity of reservoir level variations to climate change

Table.3 is a summary characterization of variation in the reservoir level, this analysis
represents in the water levels limits and corresponding percentage of occurrence for
all climate scenarios. From these table, it can be concluded that the water levels
upstream the dam are affected by the changes in the inflows. The maximum water
levels upstream the AHD of all climate scenarios within the water year did not exceed
182 m, but some water levels are below the minimum allowable limits (147 m).
Table 3 Level variations characteristics in the AHDR
Level
(m)
Baseline
%
> 181
> 178
> 175
> 160
< 147
0.60
21.60
52.90
100
-
Period I
DRY
WET%
%
0.30
1.44
14.80 30.75
42,90 75
97.41 100
-
Period II
DRY
WET%
%
3.45
2
41.38
23
86.79
70.69 100
0.86
-
Period III
DRY
WET%
%
4.03
43.97
8.05
91.10
61.80 100
14.37 -
Period IV
DRY
WET%
%
4.03
46.27
23
94.54
39.37 100
42.82 -
6.3. Sensitivity of Toshka spillway discharges to climate change

Under the baseline climate scenario, annual discharges to Toshka spillway vary
between 0 13.47 BCM with a mean of about 4.73 BCM and occur in approximately
41 % of years. The outflows discharged to Toshka Spillway are influenced by
increasing the annual inflow and raising water level upstream the AHD. For example,
discharges to Toshka spillway are negligible in period III and period IV due to
reduction of the reservoir water levels in those periods. For the period I, the range of
projected discharges to Toshka spillway is 0 (0) to 9.22 (15.36) BCM and occur in
approximately 58.60 (37.90) % of years for DRY (WET) emissions scenario (fig. 6).
The majority of scenarios show significant potential increasing in a mount of the
released water to Toshka spillway for the period I, the range of projected releases
113
editor@iaeme.com
100
grows to 0 (0)-9.22 (15.59) BCM. But according to change in level for AHDR by (1m) in dry scenarios, there is almost none changing in Toshka spillway discharge. But
for changing in level for AHDR by (+1 m) in wet scenarios, there is an increasing in
Toshka spillway discharge.
18
discharge to toshka spillway (BCM)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
cumulative frequency(%)
70
80
90
Figure 5 Frequency curve of annual Toshka spillway discharges from the AHDR.
6.4. Sensitivity of evaporation losses to climate change

Figure 7 illustrates the frequency distribution of the annual evaporation losses, from
this figure it can be noticed that 37.93 (51.07) and 6.90 (75.86) percent of years
during periods I, II had evaporation losses greater than 12.5 BCM, compared to the
baseline percent of 41.39 %, while in almost all years during period III and period IV
for dry scenario had evaporation losses less than 12.5 BCM. According to climate
change scenarios.
The annual evaporation losses vary between 8.07 13.49 BCM, with a mean of
about 11.83 BCM for the baseline climate scenario. But according to change in level
for AHDR by (-1m) in dry scenarios, there is a small changing in evaporation losses.
But for changing in level for AHDR by (+1 m) in wet scenarios, there is an increasing
in evaporation losses.
114
editor@iaeme.com
100
Reservoir
14
13
av.evaporation losses (BCM)
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Fig.6: Frequency curve of annual Evaporation losses from the AHDR.
6.5. Sensitivity of hydropower production to climate change

There are a few aspects of the frequency distributions that are notable, maximum
annual hydropower production occurs in period I (WET), and exceed 10000 GWh in
approximately 6.90% of years. For period III DRY, the hydropower production stops
for three months due to the reservoir levels falling below the minimum level for the
hydropower generation, and the annual hydropower production is less than 8000 GWh
in almost all years (fig. 8). Under the baseline climate scenario, annual hydropower
production at the AHD varies between 5360 - 9554 GWh, with a mean of about 7574
GWh. But according to change in level for AHDR by (-1m) in dry scenarios, there is a
small changing in hydropower production. But for changing in level for AHDR by
(+1 m) in wet scenarios, there is a decreasing in hydropower production.
14000
hydropower production (GWH)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Figure 7 Frequency curve of annual hydropower production from the AHDR.
115
editor@iaeme.com
100
7. CONCLUSIONS
1. The study showed how climate changes affected the reservoir operation in case of
flood or drought scenarios.
2. For a dryer scenario, irrespective of the level of inflow reduction, Egypt might have
to face water shortage.
3. Egypts average annual withdrawal from AHDR is expected to increase due to
climate change at WET scenario by 5.55 x 109 m3 (2025), 11.66 x 109 m3 (2050),
13.32 x 109 m3 (2075) and 14.99 x 109 m3(2100). However, Egypt will suffer
significant shortfalls relative to historical average releases from AHDR reaches to
3.33 x 109 m3(2025),8.32 x 109 m3 (2050),11.1x 109 m3(2075) and 17.2 x 109 m3
(2100)at DRY scenarios.
4. Hydropower production at AHD is projected to increase at WET scenario (2100) to
122 percent of historical average production, but then decreasing to 57.7 percent of
the historical mean for DRY scenario (2100).
5. Changing the level for AHDR by - 1 m for dry scenario, there is a small different in
release, discharge for Toshka spillway, and the hydropower production.
6. Changing the level for AHDR by + 1 m for wet scenario, there is an improved in each
of release, discharge for Toshka spillway, and the hydropower production.
7. Climate impact assessments on the AHDR operation have produced meaningful
results that can now be incorporated in water management and policy-making
considerations;
8. RECOMMENDATIONS
1. The Effect of Ethiopian blue Nile project on AHDR operation policy must be studied.
2. The Effect of AHDR and climate changes scenarios on great Nubian sandstone
aquifer must be studied.
REFERENCES
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
Ministry of water resources and irrigation, (2005), Water for the future, National
water resources plan 2017, Cairo, Egypt.
Strzepek, K. M.&Yates, D. N., (2000), Responses and Thresholds of the Egyptian
Economy to Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Nile River,
Climatic Change46:339-356.
Sadek, N. & Aziz, M. (2005), Water flood management of Lake Nasser after the
new Toshka barrages construction, Ninth International Water Technology
Conference, IWTC9, Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
Georgakakos, A. P., Yao, H., and Miller, F., (May 1997), A Decision Support
System for the High Aswan Dam, Waterpower.
Mohamed M.Nour El Din, (January 2013), Proposed Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy for the Ministry of Water Resources & Irrigation in Egypt, Cairo, Egypt.
Manjunatha M.C, Basavarajappa H.T and Jeevan L, Climate Change and

Its Impact on Groundwater Table Fluctuation In Precambrian Terrain of
Chitradurga District, Karnataka, India Using Geomatics Application,
International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 6(3), 2015, pp.
8396.
116
editor@iaeme.com

Impact of Climate Change On Resrevior Operation Policies - The Case of Aswan High Dam Reservoir

Transféré par

Informations du document

Titre original

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Impact of Climate Change On Resrevior Operation Policies - The Case of Aswan High Dam Reservoir

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Volume 7, Issue 2, March-April 2016, pp. 107116, Article ID: IJCIET_07_02_008

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

recommendations were deduced in order to give the appropriate constrains

Quantity in billion m per year

Fossil Groundwater Extraction

Sea Water Desalination

Renewable Groundwater Extraction

Agricultural Drainage Reuse

Climate changes such as temperature and rain precipitation has a significant

For example An increase of 10% of average annual precipitation would lead to an

2. THE CURRENT RESERVOIR OPERATION POLICY

4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

Estimated % change in Nile Flows Drying Scenario

Estimated % change in Nile Flows Wetting Scenario

Water Cuts due to Upstream Dams (billion m3/yr)

5. THE MODELING APPROACH GOVERNING EQUATIONS

Fig .3 Management of the AHDR

6.1. Sensitivity of water supply releases to climate change

release from the AHD (BCM)

Fig.4: frequency curve of annual releases from the AHDR

6.2. Sensitivity of reservoir level variations to climate change

6.3. Sensitivity of Toshka spillway discharges to climate change

6.4. Sensitivity of evaporation losses to climate change

av.evaporation losses (BCM)

Fig.6: Frequency curve of annual Evaporation losses from the AHDR.

6.5. Sensitivity of hydropower production to climate change

hydropower production (GWH)

Figure 7 Frequency curve of annual hydropower production from the AHDR.

Manjunatha M.C, Basavarajappa H.T and Jeevan L, Climate Change and

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi