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Normal
Ing. Ivn Arturo Ayala Bizarro, ayalabizarro@unh.edu.pe
Modificado 16 de abril de 2016
Hidrologa General
Distribucin Normal
Tambin denominada campana de Gauss (la distribucin de probabilidad es similar a una campana)
Funcin de densidad de probabilidad f (x)
f (x) =
Estandarizando con z =
1 x 2
1
e 2 ( )
2
(1)
1 z2
f (z) = e 2
2
(2)
e 2 (
1
) dx
(3)
1
F (z) =
2
z 2
2
dz
(4)
(5)
donde:
w=
1
1 + 0.33267|Z|
(6)
=
"
1X
xi
n i=1
n
1 X
2
=
(xi )
n 1 i=1
(7)
#1/2
(8)
Recepcin de datos
Importar los datos de la variable.
Distribucin Emprica
Existen muchas relaciones para representar una Distribucin Emprica (DE). Para precipitaciones y caudales
en hidrologa, recomiendan el suso de la distribucin propuesta por Weilbull, cuya relacin es.
Pe =
m
n+1
(9)
donde m es el nmero de orden correspondiente a cada valor de la serie ordenados de menor a mayor, y n es
el tamao o nmero total de la muestra.
n<-length(x)
P_E <- c()
for(i in 1:n)
{
P_E[i] <- i/(n+1)
}
P_E
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
[1]
[7]
[13]
[19]
[25]
[31]
[37]
0.02380952
0.16666667
0.30952381
0.45238095
0.59523810
0.73809524
0.88095238
0.04761905
0.19047619
0.33333333
0.47619048
0.61904762
0.76190476
0.90476190
0.07142857
0.21428571
0.35714286
0.50000000
0.64285714
0.78571429
0.92857143
0.09523810
0.23809524
0.38095238
0.52380952
0.66666667
0.80952381
0.95238095
0.11904762
0.26190476
0.40476190
0.54761905
0.69047619
0.83333333
0.97619048
0.14285714
0.28571429
0.42857143
0.57142857
0.71428571
0.85714286
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Distribucin Emprica
15
20
25
30
35
x
Parmetro de Escala.
## [1] 8.527353
40
45
F_AS[i]<-1-fz*(0.4361836*w-0.1201676*w**2+0.937280*w**3)
}
F_AS
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
[1]
[7]
[13]
[19]
[25]
[31]
[37]
if(z<0){
F_AS[i]<-1-F_AS[i]
}
0.04908434
0.12275747
0.32361276
0.43928759
0.59715931
0.75540283
0.92862637
0.05276376
0.12759032
0.34927917
0.44855050
0.60620816
0.75540283
0.93915405
0.08680805
0.15935489
0.35799717
0.45784211
0.63299495
0.76271016
0.96885482
0.09645090
0.20577245
0.36678971
0.48584033
0.65050912
0.77344284
0.97687728
0.10685901
0.22287071
0.39357183
0.50925349
0.68456401
0.85962628
0.98450532
0.10685901
0.27090858
0.40716308
0.52328022
0.70510218
0.86222498
0.10687041
0.22286919
0.39357770
0.50924183
0.68457105
0.85961587
0.98451571
0.10687041
0.27090162
0.40717213
0.52326461
0.70510989
0.86221436
Mediante comandos R
# Funcin de Distribucin Normal Acumulada
F_N <- pnorm(x, mu, sigma);F_N
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
[1]
[7]
[13]
[19]
[25]
[31]
[37]
0.04908523
0.12276891
0.32360634
0.43930299
0.59715127
0.75540733
0.92861932
0.05276584
0.12760158
0.34927595
0.44856699
0.60620224
0.75540733
0.93914958
0.08681779
0.15936323
0.35799544
0.45785912
0.63299495
0.76271373
0.96886035
0.09646168
0.20577363
0.36678966
0.48585371
0.65051230
0.77344491
0.97688563
1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Probabilidad Acumulada
Distribucin Normal
Distribucin Emprica
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Clculo de probabilidades
Las probabilidas se asignan a partir del periodo de retorno Tr al cual se desea someter. Mayor informacin
en: Dr. Victor Miguel Ponce
Tr<-c(2,5,10,15,20,25,50,100,200,250,500,1000) # Periodos de retorno
p<-1-1/Tr;p
##
##
Clculo de Cuantiles
Q<-qnorm(p, mu, sigma)
Rsult<-data.frame(Tr,p,Q);Rsult
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
1
2
3
4
5
6
Tr
2
5
10
15
20
25
p
0.5000000
0.8000000
0.9000000
0.9333333
0.9500000
0.9600000
Q
29.10244
36.27924
40.03068
41.90273
43.12869
44.03116
5
##
##
##
##
##
##
7
50
8
100
9
200
10 250
11 500
12 1000
0.9800000
0.9900000
0.9950000
0.9960000
0.9980000
0.9990000
46.61548
48.94003
51.06744
51.71757
53.64554
55.45394
45
40
30
35
Cuantil
50
55
200
400
600
800
1000
# Distribucin Beta
# Smirnov Kolmogorov
## Warning in ks.test(x, "pnorm", mu, sigma): ties should not be present for
## the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
##
## One-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
##
## data: x
## D = 0.06752, p-value = 0.9921
## alternative hypothesis: two-sided
. . . comentarios?