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July 20, 2016

To: Interested Parties


Fr: Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
Re: CA-10 General Election Polling Summary
The results of polling in Californias 10th congressional district find that incumbent Congressman
Jeff Denham is vulnerable to challenger Michael Eggman. This is a district President Obama
won in both 2008 and 2012, and a generic Democrat holds a seven-point advantage over a
generic Republican (45% Democrat / 38% Republican). Donald Trump is deeply unpopular with
voters in this district, only 36% of voters view him favorably and 61% of voters have negative
opinions about him. On the ballot, Hillary Clinton leads Trump by seven points (46% Clinton /
39% Trump).
Congressman Denham begins the race with a majority of voters (51%) viewing him as a career
politician, and by a 38% / 21% margin believe that he sides too often with Republicans in
Washington instead of the people of the Central Valley. At this stage, Michael Eggman is
unknown to two-thirds of voters, just 34% are familiar with him. Even among Democrats,
Eggman is still fairly unknown, just 40% are familiar with him. Given the Democratic tilt of the
district and Denhams vulnerabilities as a politician who sides with his party, as Eggman
becomes better known he should be able to consolidate the vote.
Denham only leads Eggman by six points, 47% / 41%, starting beneath 50% of the vote. Once
voters hear balanced positive information about both candidates, the vote narrows to 47%
Denham and Eggmans vote increases to 45%. Eggman makes important gains among DTS
voters (49% Eggman / 38% Denham) and among Hispanic voters (54% / 33%).
For full language on the statements tested, refer to Appendix A.

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted n=500 cellphone and landline telephone interview s of likely 2016 general election voters
from July 6-10, 2016. Interview s were conducted in both English and Spanish. Respondents w ere selected randomly from a list of
voters and apportioned geographically by expected voter turnout. The expected margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence
level for the survey is +4.4% for the full sample and higher for subgroups.

Appendix A: Informed Vote Statements

Michael Eggman, a Democrat, is an almond farmer and beekeeper. Eggman says


growing up, he helped his parents run the family business and learned the value of hard
work. As a farmer, he knows first-hand the hardships Central Valley families face. In
Congress, he will give the Central Valley a voice in Washington, will help bring jobs
here, make college more affordable, and work to find solutions to our water crisis that
will help Valley farms and families, not big cities like LA.
Jeff Denham, a Republican, is a Valley farmer, small businessman and veteran.
Denham says after college and serving in the military, he started several successful
small businesses in agriculture here in the Valley and learned how to create jobs, make
payroll, and balance a budget. In Congress, Denham is focused on growing Californias
economy and creating jobs in the state, while also improving the states long-term
climate for agriculture and business and working to expand water storage.

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