Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

ECM RESEARCH AND STATISTICS WORKING GROUP

EUROPEAN CITY TOURISM MONITOR V

REPORT

INTRO:
ARE EUROPEAN CITIES ON THE WAY TO RECOVERY?

According to the results of the 5th edition of the European City Tourism Monitor,
city tourism professionals who answered the survey expect bed nights in the 2nd
quarter of 2010 to grow, comparing to the same period in 2009.
The difference between “positive expectations” and “negative expectations” is of
34 percent points.
The ones who don’t expect any variation count for 19%.
Domestic markets and leisure segment seem to lead this trend.
In terms of international source markets, Italy and Germany are more expected
than others to grow, being Great Britain the most resilient to invert the past
losses.
From those who answered this survey, the more optimistic in this sense come
from the South and the Southwest of Europe.
It should be noticed too that, with the exception of the interviewed from the South
of Europe, a fall in hotel prices is not much expected. In fact, an increase will not
be surprising in Western and Northwestern Europe.

THE SAMPLE

All ECM members were asked to participate in this survey and 89 valid answers
were collected from 68 cities from all parts of Europe. In order to produce
regional results, the participating cities were classified according to the European

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region they belong to. The participants, to whom we express our deepest thanks,
were:
Western and Southern and
Central Southeastern
Northern Europe Northwestern Southwestern
Europe Europe
Europe Europe
23 answers 20 answers 15 answers 23 answers 8 answers
Aachen Bergen Amsterdam (2) Avignon Belgrade
Berlin (2) Copenhagen (3) Antwerp Barcelona Opatija
Bratislava Finland Conv. Bur. Belfast Bolzano Ljubljana
Budapest (2) Göteborg Bruges Cordoba Maribor
Dresden Helsinki (3) Brussels Coruna (2) Novi Sad
Geneva Malmö Cardiff Firenze (2) Sofia
Graz Oslo Chester Genova (2) Split
Heidelberg (2) Reykjavik (2) Dijon Gijon Zagreb
Linz Stockholm Dublin (2) Las Palmas
Luzern Turku (4) Luxembourg Lisboa (2)
Montreux Uppsala Lyon Madeira
Munich (2) Vilnius Paris Malta
Nuremberg York Rimini
Olomouc San Sebastian (2)
Prague Torino (2)
Salzburg Valencia
Stuttgart (2) Zaragoza
Vienna

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Almost half of the sample was made of professionals working at a CTO.

12% belonged to a convention bureau, and almost a quarter worked in an
organization that is both a CTO and a Convention Bureau.
In terms of working fields, there was a good mix between CEOs, marketers and
researchers/analysts.

TOTAL SAMPLE RESULTS

Bed nights and Hotel Prices

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More than 50% of those interviewed expect that bed nights in their city
destinations will grow in the 2nd quarter of 2010, comparing to the same period of
2009. In most of these cases the growth will be between 1 and 5%. Around a
fifth believes that bed night’s volume will be similar to last years’, and only 17%
are expecting a decrease in this indicator.
The difference between the “optimistic” and the “pessimistic” is of almost 34
percent points.
Domestic markets are expected to perform better than international ones. The
same difference in these two cases is respectively 38 and 22 points.

Considering hotel prices, the “three states of Nature” are possible to occur:
- 28% bet in a room price increase;
- 33% stand for the maintenance;
- 25% believe in a decrease. The positive difference between the
“optimistic” and the “pessimistic”, if this indicator can be judged that way,
is very short: 3 points.

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Bed nights by segments

Analyzing expectations on bed night’s evolution by tourism segments, we find

that optimism resides basically in Leisure segment:
- 56% of the answers stood for an increase, while only
- 12% reported their pessimism.
- 29 % are not expecting a significant change over 2009 results.

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This last “feeling” is the most pointed out in the other segments:
A bit more than 40% expect no changes in the MICE business, whether it is
Corporate (companies organizing their own events) or Non-Corporate
(associations’ meetings, etc.).
40% has the same opinion regarding Individual business travelers.

However, the difference between those who believe in growth and those who
believe in the opposite is lightly positive: 8 points for MICE Non Corporate; 3
points for individual business travelers; and 1 point for MICE corporate.

Bed nights by source markets

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Italian and German markets are looked with more optimism by those who
answered this survey.
The difference between the optimistic and the pessimistic in these two cases is of
26 and 22 points respectively. In addition, despite most of the expected growth in
bed nights is placed between 1% and 5%, we must admit that 12% answers
forecasting a more than 5% growth in the Italian market is a nice figure.
French, American and Spanish markets, more than growing, are expected not to
decrease, and that’s why the difference between optimism and pessimism turns
out to be positive.
Maintenance of the 2009 volume is the main answer in these cases.
Great Britain is the only market in which the decrease expectations surpass the
increase ones (difference of almost 6 points).
The percentage of people who expect maintenance (29.2%) is close to the one of
the “disbelievers” (30.3%).

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Total bed nights in 2010

Almost 60% of those polled expect a growth between 1% and 5% in bed nights in
their destinations for the whole 2010.
16% won’t be surprised with a higher rate.
In fact, only 16% expect 2010 to be worst than 2009.

Key factors affecting tourism in 2nd Quarter 2010

Key factors in 2nd quarter 2010

Events, culture, new attractions 13,5%
Better economy, confidence 12,4%
Economy crisis, unemployment 11,2%
Exchange rates 9,0%
Air Accessibility 7,9%
Marketing campaigns 7,9%
Value for Money 7,9%

When asked about the key factors influencing tourism in their destinations in the
next quarter of 2010
Answering people put more emphasis in the situation of the economy, whether is
it already improving (12.4%) or not (11.2%).
Events, culture and new attractions were regarded as push factors by 13.5% of
those polled. Evolution of exchange rates –acting in both directions – was also

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pointed out as a key element to consider (9%). Better air accessibility, marketing
campaigns on the run and the focus on value for money was all seen as positive
factors (8% each).

RESULTS BY INCOMING REGION

Total Bed nights in the 2nd Quarter

An increase in total bed nights is expected all across Europe. The more
optimistic come from the South and Southwest of Europe.

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However, there are a small percentage of people from this region and from the
West and the Northwest who still expect a decrease of 5% or more in this
indicator.
In fact there is higher volatility in the answers coming from these parts of Europe,
as high growth (superior to 5%) is also expected by some people.
And in the latter they are accompanied by Central Europe.

Domestic Bed nights

With the exception of Southeastern Europe there’s a good confidence in the

domestic markets to grow, especially in Western and Northwestern Europe and

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in Central Europe. Once again, there’s a great volatility in the answers coming
from Western and Northwestern Europe, and from Southern and Southwestern
Europe.

International Bed nights

Southeastern Europe, Southern and Southwestern Europe and Central Europe

“safely” expect a good 2nd quarter in 2010. However, in Northern Europe, people
tend more to forecast the maintenance of 2009’s standards. In Western and

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Northwestern Europe, any of the three possible evolutions is almost equally

foreseen.

Hotel Prices

Concerning hotel prices’ evolution there’s no unanimity between regions.

In Southeastern Europe no one is expecting an increase in prices.
Most of the people forecast the maintenance of price levels and 25% bet on a
light decrease.

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In Southern and Southwestern Europe there’s a light trend for price decrease,
but maintenance has also great “support”.
In Western and Northwestern Europe there are more expectations of a price
increase than of a decrease, and maintenance collects one third of the answers.
More or less the same happens in Central Europe.
In Northern Europe, maintenance of price levels is less expected and the
opinions are divided between both decrease and increase, with a light
supremacy of the latter.

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