TheMeasureofaMovement:QuantifyingBlackLivesMattersSocialMediaPower

Deen Freelon (American University)

DRAFT March 2016

Socialmediahasbecomeanessentialtoolfor21stcenturysocialmovementsastheypursuetheir
variouscauses.FromCairotoFergusonandseeminglyeverywhereinbetween,onlinetracesof
movementactivityareubiquitous.Socialmovementusesofdigitaltoolsisathrivingresearcharea,with
studiesapplyingbothqualitativeandquantitativemethodstounderstandthenatureandmagnitudeof
thisphenomenon.Mostresearchersinthisareaseemtoagreethatsocialmediacanbeconsequentialin
atleastsomecontexts,thoughthereislessagreementonexactlyhow(Bennett&Segerberg,2012;
Howardetal.,2011;Shirky,2011).
Muchofthisresearchiscasebased,focusingononeorasmallnumberofsocialmovementsorprotest
episodes.Thepresentstudy,whichexaminestheBlackLivesMattermovement,isnoexceptioninthis
regard.However,manycasebasedstudiesprimarilyorsolelyanalyzethemovementanditsvarious
digitalpursuitsasopposedtothebroadersetofactorsthatinteractwithoneanotheronthegeneral
issue.Mostpopularsocialmediaplatformsareopenenoughthatmovementactorscannotisolate
themselvesfromcommentaryandcriticismfromindividualsoutsidethemovement.Suchoutsideactors
andinterestscanprovideinsightintotheextenttowhichsocialmovementsareabletoachievetheir
goals.Asocialmovementsabilitytousesocialmediaeffectivelytowardagivengoalisanimportant
typeofpower.Yetwhiletheliteraturehascertainlynotignoredquestionsofpower,ourabilityto
actuallymeasureitonlinehasbeenlimited.
Thispaperrepresentsasteptowardthatscholarlygoal.Itdefinesseveralformsofsocialmediapower
thatareparticularlyrelevanttosocialmovementsandproposesaccompanyingtechniquestomeasure
them.Critically,othernonmovementpartiestotheconversationmayalsowieldtheseformsofpower.
Indigitalconversationspaceswheremovementallied,opposed,andunalignedinterestsalljockeyfor
attention,theabilitytomeasuretheirrespectivepotentialstoeffectchangeandcontrolthenarrativeis
important.TheconceptionofpowerIrelyonheredrawsheavilyonCharlesTillysconceptofWUNC
(worthiness,unity,numbers,commitment)(1999;Tilly&Wood,2013),thecomponentsofwhichhe
citesasindicatorsofmovementpower.UsingtweetsaboutpoliceshootingsofunarmedBlackpeoplein
2014and2015,IargueanddemonstratethatthedigitalmanifestationsofthreeofWUNCsfour
elementscanbemeasuredquantitatively,andthatthesemeasuresconstituteconsequentialformsof
socialmediapower.
Powerinsocialmovements
Bydefinition,everysocialmovementsoverarchinggoalistoeffectsomesortofsocialchange,whether
itbeinindividualattitudes,culturalconventions,and/orinstitutionalpolicies.Betweenthedecisionto
beginpressingforaparticularchangeanditsultimatefulfillmentliemanyproximategoals,the
achievementofwhichincreasesthelikelihoodofthedesiredchange.Forexample,aftertheprincipalsof
thecivilrightsmovementdecidedtoagitateforlegislationbanningsegregation,theyandtheirfollowers
engagedinprotests,sitins,andothertacticsthatemphasizedtheurgencyofthatchange.Thesuccess
ofthesetacticsspecificallytheirsize,persistence,andperceivedlegitimacycontributedtothe
achievementofthepolicygoal.

Inthesocialsciences,powerisanelementaryconcept(Giddens,1987,p.7)ladenwithanabundance
ofoverlappingandincommensurablemeanings.Acomprehensivereviewisbeyondthescopeofthis
paper,butIwillusethetermheretorefergenerallytotheabilitytospreadandcontrolagivenmessage
orperspective.ThisisconsistentwithGiddensconceptionofpowerasthecapabilitytointerveneina
givensetofeventssoasinsomewaytoalterthem(1987,p.7)aswellaswithCastellsviewthatpower
operatesbytheconstructionofmeaningonthebasisofdiscourses(2013,p.10).Theassumptionthat
shiftsindiscoursemayeventuallyleadtobroadersocialchangesisingrainedineverysocialmovements
communicationefforts.Movementleddiscussionsof(forexample)policebrutalityonsocialmediado
notconstituteanendinandofitself,butratheroneofmultiplemeansofaddressingabiggerproblem.
Powerisalsocloselyassociatedwithperceptionsoflegitimacy,inthatmovementsperceivedas
legitimatewillgenerallybeinastrongerpositiontoachievetheirgoals.Thecommunicativecomponents
ofactivismcannotsucceedthroughsheernumbersalone:activistsmustalsoarguethattheirgoalsand
methodsdeservethebroaderpublicssympathyandsupport.Formovementsthathaveforsworn
violence,persuasionisessential.Andwhenattemptstoinducechangearedirectedatpublicpolicy,
institutionalpolicy,orsocialattitudes,legitimacyoftenmakesthedifferencebetweenwhethera
movementsclaimsareconsideredseriouslyordismissedoutright.Theimportanceoflegitimacyto
socialmovementsissoparamountitoftensimplyassumedwithoutfurtherdiscussion(e.g.inMcCarthy
&Zald,1977;Williams,1995).
Tomeasuresocialmovementspowerinsocialmedia,atheoreticallyinformedconceptualizationofthe
sortofpowermostusefulforsocialmovementswouldbehelpful.CharlesTillysconceptofWUNC
providesjustsuchaconceptualization(Tilly,1999;Tilly&Wood,2013).WUNCisanacronymwhose
letterssignifyworthiness,unity,numbers,andcommitment,allessentialelementsforsocialmovements
towieldadeptly.TillydescribesWUNCasbothadefiningcharacteristicofsocialmovementsandasa
sourceorindexofsocialmovementpower.Heassociatestheconceptwithmovementstrengthand
notesthatitselementsincreasetheplausibilityoftheimpliedthreatthattheclaimantwilluseits
weighttoenter,realign,ordisrupttheexistingpolity(Tilly,1999,p.262;seealsoVliegenthart&
Walgrave,2012).ThusitisnomajorconceptualleaptoconsiderWUNCasaformofpowerinGiddens
andCastellssenses.
TillyconceivesofWUNCasameasurablesetofproperties.Hewritesofhighandlowvaluesofits
fourcomponents,whichclearlyimplypossibilitiesforquantification(Tilly,1999).Yetmostempirical
applicationsoftheconceptseemtobequalitative,withauthorsdescribinghowthevarious
characteristicsofspecificsocialmovementsfittheWUNCframework(e.g.Agbaria&Mustafa,2012;
Bennett&Segerberg,2012;Reese,2009).Forexample,indevelopingtheirtheoryofconnectiveaction,
BennettandSegerbergnotethatdigitallymediatedactionnetworksoftenseemtobeaccordedhigher
levelsofWUNCthantheirmoreconventionalsocialmovementcounterparts(2012,p.742).Againwe
seeaclearsuggestionthatWUNCcanbemeasuredandindigitalcontextsnolessbutitisfollowed
bynomethodologicalsuggestionsastohow.
DigitalWUNC:Measuringcontestationonline
Socialmovementsdonotcommunicateinavacuum:thosefortunateenoughtoattractsubstantial
publicattentiononlinewillintheprocessattractallies,opponents,journalists,curiousonlookers,
wouldbeentertainersseekingtocapitalizeonthelatesttrend,andothers.Inotherwords,social
movementsthatusesocialmediainevitablysharethosespaceswithothersinterestedinhavingtheir

sayontheissueinquestion.Everypartytoaconversationwithinasocialmediaspaceisinvolvedin
powernegotiations,whethertheyareawareofitornot.Thesimpleactofsharingonepartysmessage
ratherthananotherscontributestothisprocess.Thenarrativesandperspectivesthatspreadfarthest
standthegreatestchanceofpersuadingtheunconverted,beingbroadcastthroughmassmedia
channels,andreachingeliteswiththepowertoimplementthedesiredchanges.
Thisinturnsuggeststhatwhenresearchersseektomeasuresocialmovementspoweronline,they
shouldnotfocussolelyonthemovementitself.Instead,theyshouldlooktothebroadersetofactors
andinterestsinvolvedintheconversationandmeasureeachonespower.Insomecases,thesocial
movementmayemergeasthemostpowerfulconstituency;inothersmovementopponentsmaygain
dominance;andinstillothersneutralmassmedianarrativesmayoverwhelmallothers.Andofcourse
thesearrangementsseemlikelytochangewithtime.Thepointisthatwheresocialmovementsare
engagedonline,theresearchershouldconsiderthebroaderconversationsinwhichtheyareembedded
assystemsofpowerrelationswithmultipleinteractants,eachofwhichrequiresindependent
measurement.
TheconceptofdigitalWUNCisanaptoneforthistask,asitmakesexplicitthepropositionthatWUNC
takesonspecific,measureableformsonline.CriticaltothispropositionistheargumentthatWUNCcan
befruitfullyappliedtoconstituenciesthatarenotsocialmovements.Withtheexceptionofworthiness,
whichisnotapplicabletoallnonsocialmovements,Icontendthatthisisbothpossibleandworthwhile.
MeasuringWUNCsdigitalmanifestationsinmultiplepartiestoonlineconversationsinvolvingsocial
movementsenablespowercomparisonsbetweenthem.Ofcourse,thesemayormaynotreflect
analogouspowerrelationsbetweenthepartiesbeyondtheparticulardigitalplatformbeingstudied.
InthefollowingparagraphsIwilldiscussthecomponentsofdigitalWUNCthroughtheexampleofthe
BlackLivesMattermovement.This,inturn,requiresthatIfirstbrieflyintroducethemovement.
BlackLivesMatter
BlackLivesMatter(BLM)isalooselycoordinated,nationwidemovementdedicatedtoendingpolice
brutalitythatrosetoprominenceinlate2014.IttakesitsnamefromahashtagstartedbythreeBlack
feministactivistsPatrisseCullors,AliciaGarza,andOpalTometibutthemovementandthehashtag
arenotsynonymous.BLMhasachievednationalprominencethroughtheironlineandofflineorganizing,
obtainingextensivenewsmediacoverageandglowingreferencesinmusicandentertainment
television.Participantshavecitedtheimportanceofsocialmediainhelpingthempursuetheirgoals,
andrecentresearchhassupportedthisclaim(Freelon,McIlwain,&Clark,2016;Jackson&Welles,2016;
Stephen,2015).
Worthiness.PlacingBLMsdigitalpresenceintothedigitalWUNCframeworkhelpsusunderstandhow
boththemovementandtheconceptoperate.Webeginwithworthiness,perhapsthemostdifficultof
WUNCscomponentstomeasureindigitalcontexts.TillyandWoodofferthefollowingofflineexamples
ofworthiness:soberdemeanor;neatclothing;presenceofclergy,dignitaries,andmotherswith
children(2013,p.5).AsidefromthefactthatmostBLMparticipantswouldlikelydismissthesefeatures
asthecontemptiblepoliticsofrespectability(Higginbotham,1994),digitalenvironmentsofferfew
opportunitiesfordemonstratingworthinessinthewayTillydescribesit.Aspectsofdemeanoranddress
couldbecodedinprofilepicturesandprotestphotos,butdoingsowouldassumeaninaccurate
correspondencebetweenonlineandofflineselfpresentation.Manypeoplesprofilephotospresent

staticselfimpressionsthatcannotbeconsideredindicatorsofworthinessinasocialmovementcontext.
ActivistsmaydisplaysomeaspectsofTillysworthinessinphotosofstreetprotests,butatbestthese
aremerelyonlinedisplaysofofflineactionsthereisnothingdistinctlydigitalaboutthem.
Giventhis,itmakesmoresensetoanalyzeBLMsimplementationofworthinessqualitatively.Having
selfconsciouslyrejectedrespectabilitypolitics,participantsinsistthroughtheirmovementsnamethat
theworthinessofBlacklivesis,quiteliterally,axiomatic.Inotherwords,nofurtherexplanationorproof
isrequiredtosubstantiatetheclaim,andrequestsforsuchproofareinherentlyantiBlackbecauseno
comparablerequestsaremadeofWhites.ForBLM,thesignsofworthinesscitedbyTillyarelaborious
andultimatelyfutileattemptstoproveatruththatsomewillneverbelieve.ThisisonereasonBLM
protestsappearsomuchlessorderlyandrespectfulthanthepopularimageoftheCivilRights
Movement,withitswelldressedprotestersmarchingsolemnlyalongsidereligiousleaders.BLMsmost
basicassumptionisthatnoamountofunrulyconductcaneverdiminishthefundamentalhumanityof
theperpetrators,anditisuponthisbeliefthatthemovementsclaimtoworthinessrests(Harris,2015).
Unity.Asatheoreticalconstruct,unitymakesamuchsmoothertransitiontoonlinecontextsthan
worthiness.Tillycitesthewearingorbearingofcommonsymbols[and]directaffirmationofacommon
programoridentity(1999,p.261)askeysignifiersofunity,amongothers.Insocialmediacontextsin
general,andforBLMsonlinepresenceinparticular,fewcommonsymbolsareasemblematicasthe
movementsmajorhashtags.#Blacklivesmatterisonlythebestknownamongmanyhashtagsthat
bespeakmovementinterestandinvolvement.Creatinghashtagsbasedonvictimsnamesafterpolice
killingsisacommonpractice,somuchsothatparticipantssometimesspeakoftheirfearofbecominga
hashtag(MoodieMills,2015).Participantshavealsocitedhashtagsasimportantsourcesof
informationaboutpolicekillingsandtheresultingprotests(Freelonetal.,2016).
Empirically,unitycanbeexpressedthroughsocialmediaasatendencyforagivencommunitytousea
smallnumberofhashtagsdisproportionatelymoreoftenthanothers.Thisindicatesthatparticipantsare
conveyingaunifiedmessage,particularlywhenthehashtaginquestionexpressesanormativeclaim
(e.g.#Blacklivesmatter).Alackofconsensusinhashtagusesuggestsataminimumacorrespondinglack
ofunityinmessaging,andperhapsalsoindeeperphilosophicalortacticalviewpoints.Inequalityin
hashtaguseisametricthatislikelytodifferbetweendistinctpartiestoaconversation,sothattheymay
becomparedquantitatively.Qualitativeinspectionofeachcommunitystophashtagscanoffer
impressionsofthekindsofdiscoursesbeingcarriedaloftbythepowerofunity.
Numbers.OfWUNCsfourelements,numbersisprobablythemoststraightforwardtoconceptualize
andmeasureinsocialmedia.Countingtheparticipantswhopostaparticularhashtagorkeywordisone
ofthemostbasicdescriptiveanalysesasocialmediaresearchercanconduct.Butourtaskisnotquiteso
simple:whilethetotalnumberofusersinagivendatasetiscertainlyworthknowing,whatismore
interestingforourpurposesarethenumbersofusersassociatedwitheachpartytotheconversation.
UntilnowIhavebeenfairlyvagueaboutwhatImeanbyparty,butthetimehascometoelaborate.A
partyoracommunitywithinasocialmediaconversationisacollectionofindividualswhoshareoneor
morekeyidentitycharacteristicsandregularlydiscussthetopicathand(whichforusispolicebrutality).
Communitiesarealmostalwaysledbyhighprofileparticipantswithlargeaudienceswhosemessages
areseenmuchmoreoftenthaneveryoneelses.Anetworkanalysistechniqueknownascommunity
detectionoffersaneffectivemeansofidentifyingsuchcommunities(seeDataandMethodsbelow).I

usecommunitiesasthemainunitofanalysisthroughoutthispaperbecausetheirstructureclosely
resemblestheloose,mesolevelassociationsthatmakeupmostsocialmovements.
Onceasetofcommunitieshasbeenidentifiedandlabeled,theparticipantsineachcanbecountedjust
aseasilyasfortheentiredataset.Itisperhapsselfevidentthat,barringpurchasedfollowers,bots,
andotherobfuscatoryshenanigans,largercommunitiesgenerallywieldmorepower.
Commitment.Tillydefinescommitmentas,amongotherthings,declarationsofreadinessto
persevere(1999,p.261).Socialmediaallowustoimproveuponthisoperationaldefinitionandobserve
perseveranceitselfdirectly.Thiscapabilityreliesonthefundamentallylongitudinalnatureofsocial
mediadata.Havingfirstdisaggregatedasocialmediaconversationintomultiplecommunities,andthen
reconstitutedthosecommunitiesatsequentialpointsintime,itbecomespossibletomeasurehow
committedeachcommunitysparticipantsare.Isuggestasimplemethodofdoingso:computingthe
proportionofparticipantsinagivencommunityatTime1whoappearatleastonceinTime2.Notethat
agivenparticipantdoesnotneedtoappearinthesamecommunityinTime2asinTime1shesimply
needstosendatleastonerelevantmessageinTime2.
Comparingwhatwemightcalltherepeatparticipationratebetweencommunitiesallowsusto
determinewhicharemostandleastcommitted.Highproportionsindicatethatmanyparticipantsfroma
givencommunityarereturningtocontinuepromulgatingitspointofview.Lowproportions,incontrast,
indicateahighturnoverrateandthereforealesscommittedandlessstablecommunity.Commitment
asexpressedinthiswaysendsthemessagethatmovementsandtheirinteractantswillnotdisperse
(digitallyspeaking)whenthenexttrendingtopicemerges.Nolessthanforthepastcenturysoffline
movements,morecommitmentmeansmorepower.
Researchquestions
TheprospectofmeasuringdigitalWUNCwithinbothasocialmovementanditsinteractantsis,tomy
knowledge,novel.Therefore,thereislittletheoreticalbasisforpredictinghowvariouscommunitiesof
interactantsarelikelytodifferfromoneanotheroneachindividualmetric.ThedatasetIdescribeinthe
followingsectionoffersthreecommunities,eachofwhichfitsitsownabstractcategory.Thereisone
socialmovement(BLM),onecommunityofmovementopponents(PoliticalConservatives,orPC),and
oneunalignedcommunity(MainstreamNews,orMN).Ifweconsidersocialmovementsasissuepublics
stronglyinterestedintheirdefiningissue(Krosnick,1990),wemightconjecturethattheywouldexercise
themostpowerinconversationsonthatissue.However,stronginterestdoesnotguaranteestrength
ifmovementopponentshavegreateraccesstopublicattention,forexample,theymaybeableto
overwhelmevenhighlyenthusiasticactivists.Itisalsoconceivablethatmainstreamnewsoutletscould
drawlargenumbersofunitedonlookersattimeswhenmajorstoriesbreak.Thephrasingofthe
followingresearchquestionsreflectsthisconceptualuncertainty:

RQ1:Howwillthecommunitiescompareontheunitymetric,andhowwillthesecomparisons
changeovertime?
RQ2:Howwillthecommunitiescompareonthenumbersmetric,andhowwillthese
comparisonschangeovertime?
RQ3:Howwillthecommunitiescompareonthecommitmentmetric,andhowwillthese
comparisonschangeovertime?

Dataandmethods
ThisstudyanalyzesTwitterdatapertainingtoBLMsmaintopicofconcern,policebrutality.Ipurchased
directlyfromTwitterallpublictweetspostedduringtheyearlongperiodbetweenJune1,2014andMay
31,2015containingatleastoneof45keywordsrelatedtoBLMandpolicekillingsofBlackpeopleunder
questionablecircumstances(seeTable1).Thekeywordsconsistmostlyofthefullandhashtagged
namesof20Blackindividualskilledbypolicein2014and2015.Icountedatweetasincludinga
particularnameifitcontainedeitherthecaseinsensitivefullnameorhashtaggednameaswritten
below.Theresultingdatasetcontains40,815,975tweetscontributedby4,435,217uniqueusers.

Table1:Twitterkeywordsandrelevantmetadata
Keyword(s)
#ferguson
michaelbrown/mikebrown/
#michaelbrown/#mikebrown
#Blacklivesmatter
ericgarner/#ericgarner
freddiegray/#freddiegray
walterscott/#walterscott
tamirrice/#tamirrice
blacklivesmatter
johncrawford/#johncrawford
tonyrobinson/#tonyrobinson
ericharris/#ericharris
ezellford/#ezellford
akaigurley/#akaigurley
kajiemepowell/#kajiemepowell
tanishaanderson/#tanishaanderson
victorwhite/#victorwhite
jordanbaker/#jordanbaker
jeramereid/#jeramereid
yvettesmith/#yvettesmith
phillipwhite/#philipwhite
danteparker/#danteparker
mckenziecochran/#mckenziecochran
tyreewoodson/#tyreewoodson

Datekilled
N/A
8/9/2014

Location
N/A
Ferguson,MO

N/A
7/17/2014
4/19/2015
4/4/2015
11/22/2014
N/A
8/5/2014
3/6/2015
4/2/2015
8/11/2014
11/20/2014
8/19/2014
11/13/2014
3/3/2014
1/16/2014
12/30/2014
2/16/2014
3/31/2015
8/12/2014
1/28/2014
8/5/2014

N/A
StatenIsland,NY
Baltimore,MD
NorthCharleston,SC
Cleveland,OH
N/A
Beavercreek,OH
Madison,WI
Tulsa,OK
LosAngeles,CA
Brooklyn,NY
St.Louis,MO
Cleveland,OH
NewIberia,LA
Houston,TX
Bridgeton,NJ
BastropCounty,TX
Vineland,NJ
Victorville,CA
Southfield,MI
Baltimore,MD

Noftweets
21,626,901
9,360,239
4,312,599
4,286,350
2,559,316
1,083,316
1,001,971
445,514
331,793
245,020
200,641
184,141
150,966
102,524
27,130
27,048
21,565
14,651
13,266
6,756
5,713
1,931
1,914

ThekeywordsinTable3werecollatedfromtwosources:aseriesoftweetspostedbytheNAACPLegal
DefenseFundsTwitteraccount(@naacp_ldf)onDecember3,2014containingthenamesofunarmed
Blackpeoplekilledbypolicebetween1999and2014;andaMay1,2015Buzzfeedarticlelistinga

numberofunarmedBlackmaleskilledbypolicein2014and2015(Quah&David,2015).1Neitherof
theselistsisnecessarilycomplete,buttheywerethemostcomprehensiveIcouldfind.FromtheNAACP
listIpulledallofthe2014names,andfromtheBuzzfeedlistIpulledallnamesexcepttwo,which
resultedinacombinedtotalof20names.2TotheseIaddedthehashtags#blacklivesmatterand
#fergusonandthephraseblacklivesmatterduetotheirsignificancetothemovement.
IanalyzedthetweetdatausingsoftwareIwrotemyselfinPython.Mostofthissoftwareisavailable
throughthePythonmoduleTSM,whichcanbefoundhere:http://github.com/dfreelon/tsm.FirstI
separatedtheauthorsandfulltextofalltweetsintoninetimeperiodsofvaryinglengths.The
boundariesofthesetimeperiodsweresetbasedontheebbsandflowsoftweetvolumeoverthedata
collectionperiod.Table2liststhenineperiodsandtheeventsthatdistinguishthem.Formoredetailed
descriptionsandanalysisoftheseperiods,seeFreelon,McIlwain,andClark(2016).
Table2:Nineperiodsoftweetsaboutpolicebrutality
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Daterange
6/1/147/16/14
7/17/148/8/14
8/9/148/31/14
9/1/1411/23/14
11/24/1412/2/14
12/3/1412/10/14
12/11/144/3/15
4/4/154/18/15
4/19/155/31/15

Definingevent(s)
None
EricGarner
MichaelBrown
postFergusonprotests
DarrenWilsonnonindictment
DanielPantaleononindictment
variousBLMprotests
WalterScott
FreddieGray

Afterdefiningtheperiods,Icreatedanetworkedgelistforeachthatconnectedusernames(nodes)to
oneanotheronthebasisofretweetsormentions(edges),sothateachperiodwasrepresentedbyits
ownnetwork.Thiswasaneffectivemeansofanalyzingthisdatagiventhatwellover80%ofthetweets
consistedofretweetsandmentions.Mentionsofmultipleuserswithinasingletweetwerecountedas
distinctedges.Ithengeneratedasetofnetworkcommunitieswithineachperiodsedgelistusingan
algorithmcalledtheLouvainmethod(Blondel,Guillaume,Lambiotte,&Lefebvre,2008).TheLouvain
methodcreatescommunitiesbymaximizingedgedensitywithincommunitiesandminimizingit
betweencommunities.Forverylargenetworkslikethese,Louvaincreatessmallnumbersofverylarge
communitiesandlargenumbersofverysmallcommunities(manyofwhichconsistofasingleuser
retweetingormentioninganotheronce).Ineachperiod,Ianalyzedonlythe10largestcommunities,
whichinmostcasesaccountedforwelloverhalfofallusersinvolvedinretweetsormentions.Amore
indepthjustificationofthismethodologicalchoiceisavailableinthepeerreviewedarticlethat
introducedit(Freelon,Lynch,&Aday,2015).
CommunitiesinitiallyemergefromtheLouvainalgorithmwithnumericallabels.Iqualitativelyinspected
theusernames,profiles,andtweetsofeachcommunityshubs(i.e.itsmostprominentusers)togiveita
descriptivelabel.Thisprocessinvolvedafairdegreeofsubjectivity,andsomemayhavechosenlabels

1
2

Thefirsttweetinthisseriesishere:https://twitter.com/naacp_ldf/status/540250644658278401
DontreHamiltonandRumainBrisbonsnamesdidnotmakeitontoourfinallistduetoaclericalerror.

otherthantheonesIchose.However,labelingcommunitiesinthiswayisawellestablishedpracticein
networkanalysis(Bode,Hanna,Yang,&Shah,2015;Etling,Kelly,Faris,&Palfrey,2010;Freelonetal.,
2015).
Thisprocessgeneratedatotalof90networkcommunities(ninetimeperiodsx10communitiesper
period).UsingaproceduredevelopedbyFreelonetal.(2015),IranaPythonscriptthatattemptedto
aggregatethesedistinctcommunitiesintopersistentcommunities.Apersistentcommunityisa
chronologicalsequenceofcommunitiesindifferentperiodswhosemembershipsoverlapsubstantially.
Eachmemberofapersistentcommunitysequencerepresentsthatcommunitysidentityatthat
particularpointintime.
Theproceduretoidentifypersistentcommunitiesoperatesasfollows.Inthefirststep,aJaccard
coefficientweightedbythenetworkindegreeofthetop1%ofeachcommunityiscomputedbetween
everycommunityfromtimeperiod1andeverycommunityfromtheimmediatelysubsequenttime
period2.TheJaccardsareweightedbyindegreetoaccountforthefactthatparticipantswithhighin
degreescontributeproportionatelytocommunitycohesion.Theprocedurefindsamatchbetweentwo
communities(oneinperiod1andoneinperiod2)basedontwocriteria:1)theweightedJaccard
betweenthemmustbehigherthanallothers,and2)itmustexceed0.25,athresholdchosenbasedon
theinterpretabilityofitsresults.Ifbothofthesecriteriaarenotsatisfied,nomatchisidentified.This
techniqueisperformedforallpossiblecommunitypairsbetweenperiods1and2andthencontinues
iterativelywitheachpairofadjacentperiodsuntilitreachestheend.
Thepersistentcommunitieswiththemostmembersrepresentthemostcommittedpartiestothe
conversation.Theproceduredescribedabovedetectedthreecommunitiesthatpersistedacrossseven
periods(periods3through9),themaximumnumberfound.TheseareBLM,PoliticalConservatives,and
MainstreamNews.
BlackLivesMatter(BLM)
ManyofBLMshubsidentifiedwiththeBlackLivesMattermovementbyname.Theytypicallyframed
policebrutalityasanoppressivesocialscourge,emphasizingitsdisproportionateimpactonBlackpeople
andtheurgencyofsystemicchange.BLMwasahavenforprominentleftwingactivistsofcolor,
includingDeRayMckesson(@deray),JohnettaElzie(@nettaaaaaaaa),ShaunKing(@shaunking),Daniel
JoseOlder(@djolder),BassemMasri(@bassem_masri),HandsUpUnited(@handsupunited_),Kayla
Reed(@re_invent_ed),@brownblaze,@awkward_duck,andmanyothers.
PoliticalConservatives(PC)
BeginningduringtheinitialFergusonprotests,apersistentcommunityofpoliticallyconservativeTwitter
usersbegandiscussingpolicebrutalityissues.Mostofthetimetheyvigorouslyopposedtheprotesters
andtheirgoals,withtwomajorexceptionswhichwillbediscussedfurtherbelow.Thiscommunitywas
theonlyonetomountasustained,highprofileoppositionalnarrativeagainstthemovementmost
othercommunitieswereeitherpredominantlysupportiveorunaligned.Someofthetopvoiceshere
belongedtomediapersonalitiesLarryElder(@larryelder),WayneDupree(@waynedupreeshow),Pat
Dollard(@patdollard),andSeanHannity(@seanhannity);popularTwitterconservativesCrystalWright
(@gopblackchick)andAmyMek(@amymek);andconservativemediaoutletsFoxNews(@foxnews),
theWashingtonTimes(@washtimes),andtheBlaze(@theblaze).

MainstreamNews(MN)

Followersofthispersistentcommunityreceivedtheirinformationaboutpolicekillings,protests,and
relatedeventsprimarilyfromcorporatenewsoutletslikeCNN,theNewYorkTimes,theAssociated
Press,theLATimes,CBSNews,andReuters.NeweroutletssuchasMashable,Buzzfeed,theDailyBeast,
andtheHuffingtonPostwerealsosometimesincludedhere,eventhoughtheyoccasionallyvoiced
explicitsupportforthemovement.Mostofthehubsinthesecommunitiesareinstitutionalaccounts;
althoughafewindividualreportersarepresent,morearescatteredthroughoutothercommunities.

Results
RQ1positsatestoftheunitymetric,whichanalyzestheextenttowhichintracommunityhashtagusage
isdominatedbyasmallnumberofhashtags.Toinvestigatethis,IapplytheGinicoefficient,whichis
oftenusedtomeasureinequalityindistributionsofinnationalwealthbutworksequallywellfor
hashtags.Ginisfortheuniquehashtagcountsofthethreecommunitiesacrossthesevenperiodsare
plottedinFigure1.

Figure1:Ginicoefficientsforhashtaginequalityforthreepersistentcommunitiesovertime
1
0.99
0.98

Ginicoefficient

0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.9
P3

P4

P5
BLM

P6
PC

P7

P8

P9

MN

Figure1syaxisshowsthatthethreecommunitiesGinisallremainquitehighthroughouttheseven
periods.Still,BLMsGinisremainhigherthantheothertwocommunitieswithoutexception.PCs
exceedMNsinallperiodsexcept8,whenthetrendisreversed.Overall,theseresultsindicateslight
differencesinunitybetweenthecommunities,withthegreatestconsistentdifferencebetweenBLM
andMN.

Basicdescriptivestatisticscanhelpussummarizethepowercomparisonsbetweenthesethree
communitiesacrossallsevenperiods.Table3showsthemediansandvariancesofallhashtagGinisfor
eachcommunity.Themediansrevealthatoverall,BLMwasthemostunifiedcommunity,followedby
PC,withMNasleastunified.Thesedifferencesareclosebutconsistent.BLMalsoshowsthelowest
varianceamongthethree,which,combinedwithitstoprankedmedian,indicatesastrongcapacityto
remainonmessage.PCsvariancewasthehighest,suggestingthatitsunitylevelsmaybemorestrongly
influencedbyexternalfactors.

Table3:MediansandvariancesofhashtagGinicoefficients
community
BLM
PC
MN

median
0.973
0.957
0.94

variance
0.000085061
0.000383061
0.000236490

RQ2addressesdifferencesinpopulationnumbersbetweenthecommunitiesovertime.Toanswerit,I
simplyplottedeachcommunityssizes(inusers)acrossthesamexaxisasFigure1(seeFigure2).
CommunitysizesaredeterminedbytheLouvainalgorithm.

Figure2:Populationsizesforthreepersistentcommunitiesovertime
250000

Participants

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
P3

P4

P5
BLM

P6
PC

P7

P8

P9

MN

Intercommunitydifferencesareclearlymorepronouncedforthenumbersmetricthanforunity.In
spiteofthelownumberofdatapoints,itisclearthatthepopulationcountsforallthreecommunities
arestronglycorrelated.BLMconsistentlysurpassestheothertwocommunitiesinsizeacrossallperiods,

althoughthemagnitudeofthedisparitydiffersbetweenperiods.PCdefinitivelyexceedsMNinall
periodsexcept8,duringwhichtheirsizesareverysimilar.
Turningtothedescriptivestatistics(Table4),weseethatBLMsmediancommunitysizeisthelargestby
nearlydouble,withPCatsecondandMNthird.Givenitsgenerallylargeraudiences,BLMisinaposition
tocirculateitsnarrativesandperspectivesmuchmorewidelythanPCorMN.ButBLMsnumbersalso
exhibitamuchhighervariancethantheothertwocommunities,suggestingthatthisdimensionof
powerisquitefickleforthemovementsonlinecomponent.
Table4:Mediansandvariancesofpopulationcounts
community
BLM
PC
MN

median
114102
64728
40004

variance
4464035145
2027413516
880228944

RQ3proposestocomparelevelsofcommitmentbetweenthethreecommunities.Todoso,Iplotted
overtimeeachcommunitysrepeatparticipationrate(Figure3),whichgivestheproportionof
communityparticipantsinthefirstoftwosequentialperiodsthatpostedatleastonceinthelatter
period.Datapointsarelabeledonthexaxisbasedontheearlierperiodineachpair,sothatFigure3
containsonlysixxaxisdatapointsinsteadofseven(period9isomitted).

Figure3:Repeatparticipationratesforthreepersistentcommunitiesovertime
1
0.9

Repeatparticipationrate

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
P3

P4

P5
BLM

P6
PC

P7

P8

MN

Theresultshererevealaninterestingpattern.Aswithpreviousmetrics,BLMparticipantsconsistently
outperformMNintermsofrepeatparticipation,butPCbehavesdifferently.Duringcertainperiods,such
as4,5,7,and9,PCsrepeatparticipationrateisveryclosetoorinonecaseevenhigherthanBLMs.But
inperiods6and8,PCsratesdropprecipitouslybelowBLMs.Neithercommunityconsistently
outperformstheotherintermsofcommitment;rather,commitmentlevelsfluctuateinresponseto
externaleventsandthepassageoftime.
Table5:Mediansandvariancesofrepeatparticipationrates
community
BLM
PC
MN

median
0.507547
0.455221
0.29489

variance
0.015932
0.032938
0.02286

Table6revealsBLMsmedianratetobeonlyslightlyhigherthanPCs,butthatMNsismuchlowerthan
theothertwo.Boththemovementanditschiefopponentsappeartobesimilarlycommitted,butthe
newsaudienceexperiencesveryhighparticipantturnover.BLMisalsohighlyconsistentinits
commitmentwiththelowestvarianceofthethree,whilePChasthehighest.Thisraisesthepossibility
thatcertaineventsmaybepromptingsubstantialturnoveramongconservatives,whichIdiscussbelow.

Discussion
InthispaperIhaveproposedanddemonstratedseveraltechniquesofmeasuringpowerinmovement
relevantsocialmediaconversations.Myresultscontributetoatheoreticalunderstandingofhowpower
circulatesinsuchconversations,suchthatfutureresearchwillbeabletodiscernwhichcommunity
characteristicsaremostcloselyassociatedwithhigherandlowerlevelsofsocialmediapower.Buteven
atthispreliminarystage,severaltheoreticallyrelevantconclusionsareapparent.First,atleastinthis
case,thepartythatqualifiesastheissuepublic(whichinmostcaseswillbethesocialmovement)bears
thehighestoveralllevelsofallthreemetrics.Thisimpliesthatitwieldsthemostpoweronline.BLMs
successininsertingitsperspectivesintomainstreamnewsaccountsandelicitingeliteresponsesis
consistentwiththisfinding.
However,BLMsdominanceisnotconsistentinmagnitudeacrossmetricsoracrosstime.Whileitis
invariablythemostnumerouscommunity,itrunsveryclosetoorfallsbelowoneoftheothermetricson
atleastoneoccasion.Thegeneraltrendtowarddecreasinghashtagunitymayindicatethemovements
wideningfocusonmultiplevictims,asopposedtotheoverwhelmingfocusonMichaelBrownandEric
Garnerthatdominatedtheearlierperiods(Freelonetal.,2016).Ontheotherhand,thismetricvaries
withinanextremelynarrowrange,sosomeofthesevicissitudescouldberandom.Thisislesslikelywith
thecomparativelysteepdropsinPCsunityfromperiod5toperiod6andfromperiod7toperiod8.
Thesemayhavesomethingtodowiththefactthatconservativesweretornonhowtointerpretthe
nonindictmentofEricGarnerskiller,whichoccurredduringperiod6,andtheWalterScottshooting,
whichoccurredduringperiod8.Someconservativescondemnedthepolicesactionsinthesecases
whileotherscontinuedtocastigatethemovement(Freelonetal.,2016).Inanycase,itseems

reasonabletoconcludethatthedynamicsofonlinepowermaychangequicklyinresponsetomajor
events.
Indeed,someofthecommunitiesanalyzedhereappearmoresensitivetothepassageoftimeand
outsideeventsthanothers.Ontheunityandcommitmentmetrics,BLMislesssensitivethanPCand
MN;butonnumbers,itfeaturesthehighestvariance.Ideallyasocialmovementwouldwanttorank
highlyonallmetricsanddeviateaslittleaspossibletoprojectasustainedimpressionofonlinepower.
Ofcoursethismaynotbepossiblegivenalltheexternalfactorsthatcouldpotentiallyinfluenceonline
unity,numbers,andcommitment.Ontheotherhand,nonmovementparticipantsmayhaveless
incentivetoengageconsistently,insteadbeingmotivatedbyintensemediaattention.Theevidenceis
mixedonthispossibilitymoreresearchwillhelptoclarifythesituation.
Aswebuildtowardamorecomprehensivetheoryofsocialmediapowerforsocialmovements,wemust
considerthesemetricsnotonlyasdependentvariables,butalsoasindependentvariables.Notonly
shouldwesearchforfactorslikeexternaleventsandthecommunitysrelationshiptotheissuethat
couldinfluencethemetrics,weshouldalsoinvestigatetheextenttowhichthesemetricsactually
behaveaspowerindicatorsshould.Forexample,ifunity,numbers,andcommitmentasIhave
operationalizedthemheredenotepowerinanymeaningfulsense,theyoughttobecorrelatedwith
resultssuchasmediacoverage,publicperceptionsofissueimportance,issuementionsbypoliticians,
and(overthelongterm)policychangesinthedesireddirection.Otherwise,theyamounttolittlemore
thanslacktivism(Christensen,2011),andmovementswouldbewelladvisedtousesocialmedia
differentlyorabandonitaltogether.
Thesuggestionthatindicatorsofonlinepowerbeevaluatedinpartbytheirassociationwithdesired
resultsmayultimatelymovethisresearchenterpriseawayfromitsrootsinWUNC.WUNCisan
attractivestartingpointforthequantitativemeasurementofonlinesocialmovementpowerbecauseof
itstheoreticalpedigreeanditsconceptualfitwithreadilyaccessibledigitaltraces.YetifdigitalWUNCas
definedherecannotbeempiricallyassociatedwithdesiredresults,severalpathsforwardpresent
themselves.ResearchersmayattempttooperationalizethecomponentsofWUNCinnewways,choose
toworkwithalternativeframeworks,orworkbackwardfromsocialmovementdesideratatotryto
inductivelydiscoveronlinetracesthatareconsistentlyassociatedwiththem.Thesepossibilitiesremind
ustokeepourmeasuresofpowerascloselytiedtoourfoundationaldefinitionsthereofaspossible.
Theanalysispresentedabovehighlightskeychallengesforresearchersinterestedincontributingtothis
researcharea.Thelownumberofdatapointsprecludestheapplicationofappropriatelypowered
statisticalmodelsthatmighthelpelucidatethedynamicsofsocialmediapower.Unfortunately,the
qualitativeworkinvolvedinlabelingnetworkcommunitiesisnotonlypainstaking,itusuallymustbe
performedbyasubjectmatterexpert.Formostsocialmediaplatforms,itrequiresrecognizingthe
sharedidentitiesofeachcommunitystopmembersandaccuratelyinterpretingwhattheysay.The
amountofeffortrequiredtodothisonascalelargeenoughtocreatestatisticallyviabledatasetsis
daunting,tosaytheleast.
Atthesametime,myfindingssuggestthatmuchinterestingworkcanbeconductedwithoutelaborate
statisticalmodeling.Simplelongitudinalchartscanrevealhowdistributionsofpowerchangeovertime,
whichinturnfeedstheoriesofwhosediscoursespredominateandunderwhatconditions.Anindepth
understandingoftheeventtimelinecanhelpexplainhowandwhyamovementspowerroseorfellat
particulartimes.Analysisoftheextenttowhichthemetricspointinthesamedirectionordivergecan

offeradegreeofclarityandconfidenceintheconclusions.Ultimately,thesemetricsmaylend
themselvesmoretoamixedmethodsapproachinwhichthequantitativedataiscloselyinterpretedin
lightofdeepsubjectmatterexpertiseandexistingtheory.
Thetruemeasureofanysocialresearchendeavoriswhetheritrevealsanythingofvalueaboutthe
world.Thegeneralpursuitofmeasuringpowerindigitalmediaspacesshouldinterestanyresearch
communitythatcaresaboutpowerasasocialphenomenon.ThesuggestionsIproposehereare
intendedtocontributetothatpursuit;however,therearecertainlyothermethodsofmeasuringonline
power,andthecurrentonesmayneedtobeadaptedforplatformsotherthanTwitter.Buttheirorigins
inWUNCanestablishedtheoreticalframeworkinthesocialmovementliteraturemakethecurrent
metricsespeciallyattractiveforresearchersstudyingonlinemovementactivity.

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