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August 4, 2016
Neutral
PRICE: US$20.40
TARGET: US$23.00
1.3x EV/Sales based on our 2017 sales
forecast
Troy D. Jensen, CFA
Sr Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
612 303-6291, troy.d.jensen@pjc.com
Austin R. Bohlig
Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
612 303-6987, austin.r.bohlig@pjc.com
Changes
Rating
Price Tgt
FY16E Rev (mil)
FY17E Rev (mil)
FY16E EPS
FY17E EPS
2Q16 Earnings Recap - For the June quarter, the company reported revenues of
$172.1M (cons $175.6M), which is up 2.5% sequentially, but down 5.6% on a Y/Y
basis. Meanwhile, gross margins increased 80 bps Q/Q to 55.9%, which was driven by
favorable product mix. Despite lower revenues, continued cost cutting initiatives and
improved operational efficiencies allowed operating margins to increase from 2.4% in
Q1 to 5.9% in the June quarter. Lower than expected opex investments produced NonGAAP EPS of $0.12, which was $0.06 ahead of consensus.
Previous
US$24.00
US$0.30
Segment Analysis - Product sales were up 4.3% on a sequential basis, but down 8.0%
Y/Y to $123.8M, while accounting for 71.9% of total sales. During the June quarter,
Stratasys shipped a total of 5,394 printers, which is up 5.2% Q/Q and down 19.9% Y/
Y. Exiting Q1, cumulative unit shipments reached a new milestone of ~156K, up from
~136K in 2Q15. The upbeat sequential improvement in unit sales was largely driven
by 8.0% Q/Q growth in MakerBot. That said, we believe system demand remained
largely challenging across the companys entire portfolio, but believe Stratasys' lowend portfolio (Mojo, uPrint, Dimension) continues to meaningfully underperform highend printer sales. Service revenue increased 1.0% Y/Y to $48.3M, accounting for 28.1%
of total sales. Revenues related to services were largely driven by service support sales
growing 11.0% Y/Y, which is a result of the companys growing installed basis. SDM
revenues were down Y/Y.
Current
Neutral
US$23.00
US$700.0
US$750.0
US$0.35
US$0.70
US$33.13 / US$14.48
52.5
US$1,071.0
1,090
US$22.08
US$5.11
0.0%
0.00%
Dec
35
30
25
20
15
Company Guidance - The company also reiterated FY16 guidance, but did indicate
they expect revenues to be at the low-end of the guided range. Stratasys continues to
target revenues in the range of $700 730M, and is targeting operating margins to 3
5% which will translate into $0.17 0.43 in Non-GAAP EPS. We have left our model
modestly unchanged, since we lowered our estimates following our poor Q2 checks.
10
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16 Apr-16
Jun-16 Aug-16
Source: Bloomberg
R I S K S T O A C H I E V E M E N T O F P T & R E C O M M E N D AT I O N
Margin pressure, competition, ASP erosion, macro economic slowdown
C O M PA N Y D E S C R I P T I O N
Stratasys is a leading provider of rapid prototyping systems and 3D printers.
YEAR
REVENUE (US$ m)
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
FY
FY RM
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
FY
2015A
172.7
182.3
167.6
173.4
696.0
1.5x
0.04
0.15
0.01
(0.01)
0.18
FY P/E
NM
2016E
167.9A
172.1A
174.0
186.0
700.0
1.5x
0.01A
0.12A
0.07
0.16
0.35
58.3x
2017E
173.0
180.8
186.2
210.0
750.0
1.4x
0.06
0.12
0.16
0.35
0.70
29.1x
Proforma EPS
Piper Jaffray does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only
a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure information,
including an attestation under Regulation Analyst certification, found on pages 13 - 14 of this report or at the following site:
http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures.
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 1 of 14
COMPANY NOTE
August 4, 2016
2Q16 Earnings
Recap
Stratasys reported mixed Q2 results with revenues falling below consensus expectations, but
better cost controls allowed the company to beat on the bottom line. For the June quarter, the
company reported revenues of $172.1 million (cons $175.6M), which is up 2.5% sequentially, but
down 5.6% on a year/year basis. Due to challenging market conditions, Stratasys revenues
continue to be affected by poor system demand, which was down 19.0% year/year. Meanwhile,
gross margins increased 80 basis points quarter/quarter to 55.9%, which was driven by favorable
product mix. Despite lower revenues, continued cost cutting initiatives and improved operational
efficiencies allowed operating margins to increase from 2.4% in Q1 to 5.9% in the June quarter.
Lower than expected opex investments produced Non-GAAP EPS of $0.12, which was $0.06
ahead of consensus. In the exhibit below, we compare Stratasys 2Q16 results to the Street, as
well as to historical quarter results.
Exhibit 1
Product Sales
Stratasys Ltd.
Product sales were up 4.3% on a sequential basis, but down 8.0% year/year to $123.8 million,
while accounting for 71.9% of total sales. Depressed year/year product growth was largely led by
weak printer demand, and in Q2 total system sales were down ~19.0% year/year. During the
June quarter, Stratasys shipped a total of 5,394 printers, which is up 5.2% quarter/quarter and
down 19.9% year/year. Exiting Q1, cumulative unit shipments reached a new milestone of
~156K, up from ~136K in 2Q15. The upbeat sequential improvement in unit sales was largely
driven by 8.0% quarter/quarter growth in MakerBot. That said, we believe system demand
remained largely
-end
portfolio (Mojo, uPrint, Dimension) continues to meaningfully underperform high-end printer sales.
The company did acknowledge that the new J750 printer performed exceptionally well in the
quarter, and due to the greater mix of high-end systems, as well as healthy growth in material
sales, product margins increased 240 basis points sequentially to 63.5%. Consumable revenues
were up 11.0% year/year, which was driven by a growing install base and robust utilization rates.
The exhibit on the following page highlights the
product revenue and year/year
growth trends.
Page 2 of 14
COMPANY NOTE
August 4, 2016
Exhibit 2
80.0%
60.0%
$160.0
40.0%
$120.0
20.0%
$80.0
0.0%
$40.0
-20.0%
$0.0
-40.0%
Product Revenue
Y/Y Growth
Service Segment
Service revenue increased 1.0% year/year to $48.3 million, accounting for 28.1% of total sales.
Revenues related to services were largely driven by service support sales growing 11.0%
year/
service margins were up in Q2 and increased 120 basis points to 36.6%. Meanwhile, Stratasys
Direct Manufacturing (SDM) business was down year/year. Despite the recent weakness, we
remain upbeat in Stratasys Direct Manufacturing business, and believe this segment can see
~10% year/year growth rates as users leverage the many benefits of 3D printing before making
their own system purchases. With the added manufacturing capabilities that were acquired from
Harvest and Solid Concept, we believe Stratasys service offering is tailored to a handful of the
fastest growing verticals such as Aerospace, Healthcare and Automotive. The exhibit below
highlights historical service revenue and year/year trends.
Exhibit 3
160.0%
140.0%
$50.0
120.0%
$40.0
100.0%
$30.0
80.0%
60.0%
$20.0
40.0%
$10.0
20.0%
$0.0
0.0%
Service Revenue
Y/Y Growth
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 3 of 14
COMPANY NOTE
August 4, 2016
Geographic Analysis
From a geographic perspective, growth in all regions declined on a year/year basis. North
America revenues were approximately flat year/year and accounted for 59.0% of total revenues.
EMEA sales were down 13.8% year/year and generated 21.0% of sales. Meanwhile, APAC was
down 10.6% on a year/year basis, and accounted for 18.0% of revenues. While growth in sales
year/year was down, it is important to note that revenues in Q2 were up 4.2%, 2.5% and 105.0%
quarter/quarter in North America, EMEA, and the other region, respectively. The chart on the
Exhibit 4
Geographic Breakdown
100%
$3.4
$3.5
$1.7
$3.4
$26.8
$29.5
$33.6
$31.0
$35.2
$39.9
$35.3
$36.1
$102.2
$100.5
$97.4
$101.5
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Q3 15
Q4 15
North America
EMEA
Q1 16
APAC
Other
Q2 16
Company Guidance
& Model Revisions
The company also reiterated FY16 guidance, but did indicate they expect revenues to be at the
low-end of the guided range. Stratasys continues to target revenues in the range of $700 730
million, which represents 2.7% year/year growth to the midpoint. The company also remains
focused on generating gross margins in the range of 54 55%, which is a healthy lift from 52%
experienced in FY15. Furthermore, the company remains emphasized on being operating and
cash flow positive for the year, and is targeting operating margins to 3 5%. This will translate
into $0.17 0.43 in Non-GAAP EPS for the full year.
With the company expecting revenues to come in at the low-end of their guided range, we have
left our model modestly unchanged, since we lowered our estimates following our poor Q2
checks. We did lower our Q3 revenue and EPS estimate by $1.0 million and $0.01, respectively,
as well as increased our FY16 EPS estimate by $0.05 due to higher than expected cost savings.
Other than those modest model adjustments we have left our revisions through 2017 unchanged.
Exhibit 5
Model Revisions
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 4 of 14
COMPANY NOTE
August 4, 2016
5 Year Business
Model Target
Looking further down the road, we have also left our 5 year model intact. While we believe
Stratasys can grow mid-high single digits over the next couple years, we feel the company can
see revenues accelerate ~12% annually in 2018 and beyond. Assuming Stratasys can generate
our expected growth assumptions and begin to see operating leverage in the business, the
company should be able to produce nearly $2.07 in EPS in 2020. We highlight our 5 year model
in an exhibit following the note.
Investment
Conclusion
Stratasys reported mixed Q2 results with revenues falling below consensus expectations, but
better cost controls allowed the company to beat on the bottom line. Due to challenging market
conditions, Stratasys revenues continue to be affected by poor system demand, which was down
19.0% year/year. Although the 2H of the year is historically better for system sales, we believe
the headwinds currently affecting demand likely prevail throughout the year. While the company
reiterated FY16 guidance, Management had indicated they expect revenues to be at the low-end
of the guided range, and we believe 2H revenue estimates remain at risk. We were encouraged
and believe EPS will be less at risk, but until we get
clear evidence printer demand trends are improving we will remain on the sidelines. That said, we
reiterate our Neutral rating, but lowered our price target from $24 to $23. Our price target equates
to 1.3x (unchanged) EV/S based on CY17 estimates. Our price is decreased by $1 due to
changes in cash and share count. The exhibit below highlights our price target calculation.
Exhibit 6
Model Revisions
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 5 of 14
Stratasys Ltd.
Income Statement
(data in millions, except per share)
8/4/2016
Revenues
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profits
Mar
Q1 15
$172.7
79.3
$93.4
Dec
Q4 15
$173.4
90.0
$83.4
Mar
Q1 16
$167.9
75.5
$92.4
Dec
Q4 16E
$186.0
81.8
$104.2
Mar
Q1 17E
$173.0
77.0
$96.0
2014
$750.4
311.1
$439.3
2015
$696.0
334.3
$361.7
2016E
$700.0
311.4
$388.6
2017E
$750.0
329.6
$420.3
$24.4
69.8
($0.8)
$22.5
73.6
$3.7
$25.1
70.1
($10.0)
$22.2
70.1
($8.9)
$22.8
65.6
$4.0
$22.3
63.8
$10.2
$23.0
65.3
$7.5
$24.4
67.0
$12.8
$24.9
67.5
$3.6
$25.5
68.0
$7.8
$26.0
68.5
$10.1
$26.9
69.3
$22.2
$73.5
257.6
$108.3
$94.2
283.5
($16.0)
$92.4
261.6
$34.5
$103.3
273.3
$43.7
($5.1)
(5.9)
(7.8)
$1.9
($0.7)
3.0
(4.8)
$7.7
($0.8)
(10.8)
(11.4)
$0.7
($0.9)
(9.8)
(9.1)
($0.7)
$0.2
4.1
3.6
$0.6
$0.9
11.1
4.9
$6.2
$0.0
7.5
4.0
$3.5
$0.0
12.8
4.5
$8.3
$0.0
3.6
0.5
$3.1
$0.0
7.8
1.2
$6.6
$0.0
10.1
1.5
$8.6
$0.0
22.2
3.3
$18.9
($6.5)
101.7
(1.9)
$103.6
($7.6)
(23.6)
(33.2)
$9.6
$1.1
35.6
17.0
$18.6
$0.0
43.7
6.6
$37.2
$0.04
52.3
$0.15
52.7
$0.01
53.1
($0.01)
52.0
$0.01
53.1
$0.12
52.5
$0.07
52.6
$0.16
52.8
$0.06
53.0
$0.12
53.3
$0.16
53.5
$0.35
53.8
$2.00
51.8
$0.18
52.6
$0.35
52.8
$0.70
53.4
54.1%
14.1%
40.4%
-0.4%
132.3%
1.1%
54.7%
12.3%
40.3%
2.0%
-161.6%
4.3%
50.8%
15.0%
41.8%
-6.0%
106.2%
0.4%
48.1%
12.8%
40.4%
-5.1%
92.9%
-0.4%
55.1%
13.6%
39.1%
2.4%
86.3%
0.3%
55.9%
12.9%
37.1%
5.9%
44.0%
3.6%
55.0%
13.2%
37.5%
4.3%
53.5%
2.0%
56.0%
13.1%
36.0%
6.9%
35.1%
4.5%
55.5%
14.4%
39.0%
2.1%
15.0%
1.8%
56.0%
14.1%
37.6%
4.3%
15.0%
3.7%
56.2%
14.0%
36.8%
5.4%
15.0%
4.6%
56.4%
12.8%
33.0%
10.6%
15.0%
9.0%
58.5%
9.8%
34.3%
14.4%
-1.8%
13.8%
52.0%
13.5%
40.7%
-2.3%
140.9%
1.4%
55.5%
13.2%
37.4%
4.9%
47.7%
2.7%
56.0%
13.8%
36.4%
5.8%
15.0%
5.0%
Quarter/Quarter % Change
Revenues
Operating Income
Net Income
-20.4%
-103.1%
-92.4%
5.6%
573.3%
306.1%
-8.1%
-371.8%
-91.4%
3.5%
11.0%
-204.8%
-3.1%
144.5%
181.3%
2.5%
158.1%
1002.1%
1.1%
-26.7%
-44.2%
6.9%
71.5%
139.4%
-7.0%
-71.7%
-63.0%
4.5%
114.0%
114.0%
3.0%
30.1%
30.1%
12.8%
119.8%
119.8%
Year/Year % Change
Revenues
Operating Income
Net Income
14.3%
-103.4%
-90.7%
2.2%
-87.2%
-72.3%
-17.7%
-131.4%
-97.8%
-20.2%
-135.6%
-102.8%
-2.8%
609.4%
-70.3%
-5.6%
177.7%
-19.5%
3.8%
174.9%
424.4%
7.3%
244.5%
-1297.5%
3.0%
-8.1%
445.5%
5.1%
-23.8%
5.9%
7.0%
35.1%
146.8%
12.9%
73.1%
126.6%
54.2%
10.8%
26.1%
-7.2%
-114.7%
-90.7%
0.6%
315.9%
93.5%
7.1%
26.9%
99.7%
$386.7
$7.39
79
2.4x
$343.8
$6.52
73
2.4x
$277.7
$5.23
76
2.3x
$273.6
$5.26
70
2.9x
$296.5
$5.58
58
2.4x
$268.4
$5.11
66
2.4x
$403.1
$7.68
66
3.1x
$273.6
$5.26
70
2.9x
Margin Analysis
Gross Margins
Research & Development
Selling, General & Admin
Operating Income
Tax Rate
Net Income
Other Metrics
Net Cash and Equivalents
Net Cash per Share
Days Sales Outstanding
Inventory Turns
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 6 of 14
Current disclosure information for this company can be found at http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures.
Stratasys Ltd.
Balance Sheet
($ in millions, except per share)
8/4/2016
26.2
0.0
22.8
6.2
$55.2
Dec
Q4 12
$154.8
69.8
22.9
68.0
7.7
$323.3
Dec
Q4 13
$614.5
105.9
0.0
88.4
43.4
$852.1
Mar
Q1 14
$607.5
113.1
0.0
99.8
51.1
$871.5
Jun
Q2 14
$577.9
120.2
0.0
114.3
55.7
$868.3
Sep
Q3 14
$458.9
148.2
0.0
119.3
69.1
$795.4
Dec
Q4 14
$442.7
159.0
0.0
123.4
71.5
$796.6
Mar
Q1 15
$424.9
151.1
0.0
131.0
55.3
$762.3
Jun
Q2 15
$502.6
147.1
0.0
137.4
71.9
$859.0
Sep
Q3 15
$262.4
141.4
0.0
140.8
56.4
$601.0
Dec
Q4 15
$258.2
134.9
0.0
123.7
30.3
$547.1
Mar
Q1 16
$280.2
109.1
0.0
124.5
40.4
$554.2
Jun
Q2 16
$253.9
125.6
0.0
125.7
28.6
$533.8
$39.7
38.1
50.8
$183.8
$62.1
9.5
1336.7
$1,731.5
$91.0
11.2
1827.9
$2,782.2
$99.1
11.8
1809.1
$2,791.6
$110.8
13.0
1799.1
$2,791.2
$143.3
14.6
2044.5
$2,997.9
$157.0
14.8
1930.6
$2,899.1
$165.0
16.1
1715.9
$2,659.2
$186.0
19.1
1700.2
$2,764.2
$209.4
17.8
799.8
$1,628.0
$201.9
17.8
647.6
$1,414.4
$200.7
18.6
639.3
$1,412.8
$209.3
16.7
639.7
$1,399.6
LIABILITIES
Accounts Payable
Unearned Maintenance Revenues
Short Term Debt
Other Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
$19.4
12.3
0.0
0.0
$31.7
$35.2
18.1
0.0
41.1
$94.4
$35.4
36.0
0.0
66.3
$137.7
$35.1
39.5
0.0
84.2
$158.7
$38.9
41.9
0.0
71.8
$152.6
$39.1
40.9
50.0
118.8
$248.8
$37.4
45.0
50.0
118.2
$250.6
$47.6
47.1
50.0
95.2
$239.9
$40.7
48.8
175.0
108.2
$372.7
$38.5
49.3
0.0
84.3
$172.0
$39.0
52.3
0.0
81.4
$172.7
$37.5
52.0
0.0
92.9
$182.5
$42.9
52.0
0.0
79.6
$174.5
$6.8
0.0
0.0
$38.5
$54.7
3.2
7.1
$159.4
$112.5
3.2
29.1
$282.5
$102.5
3.2
15.6
$280.0
$98.0
4.6
15.9
$271.0
$65.4
5.5
60.5
$380.2
$55.8
5.9
51.6
$363.9
$43.0
5.4
46.4
$334.7
$36.3
6.1
39.4
$454.5
$38.5
6.9
27.1
$244.5
$16.0
7.6
26.8
$223.2
$14.7
8.5
29.2
$234.9
$11.9
10.6
41.1
$238.1
EQUITY
Minority Interest
Total Shareholders Equity
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity
$0.0
183.3
$221.8
$0.5
1,571.7
$1,731.5
$0.0
2,499.8
$2,782.2
$0.0
2,511.5
$2,791.6
$0.0
2,520.2
$2,791.2
$0.5
2,617.2
$2,997.9
$4.4
2,530.8
$2,899.1
$4.3
2,320.2
$2,659.2
$2.9
2,306.8
$2,764.2
$2.5
1,381.0
$1,628.0
$2.4
1,188.8
$1,414.4
$2.3
1,175.7
$1,412.8
$2.2
1,159.3
$1,399.6
1.7x
0.8x
0.0%
0.0%
21.8%
30
61
5.0x
11.7x
1.5x
1.5x
$4.67
$0.97
3.4x
2.4x
0.0%
0.0%
6.8%
65
151
1.1x
1.6x
0.2x
0.2x
$38.97
$4.06
6.2x
5.2x
0.0%
0.0%
4.0%
61
128
0.6x
0.7x
0.2x
0.2x
$48.61
$12.17
5.5x
4.5x
0.0%
0.0%
4.2%
67
152
0.6x
0.8x
0.2x
0.2x
$49.02
$12.09
5.7x
4.6x
0.0%
0.0%
4.6%
61
143
0.7x
0.9x
0.2x
0.2x
$49.23
$11.54
3.2x
2.4x
1.9%
1.7%
4.1%
65
127
0.9x
1.3x
0.3x
0.2x
$50.08
$8.09
3.2x
2.4x
1.9%
1.7%
4.1%
66
116
0.9x
1.4x
0.3x
0.3x
$48.21
$7.68
3.2x
2.4x
2.1%
1.9%
3.5%
79
149
1.0x
1.5x
0.3x
0.3x
$44.33
$7.39
2.3x
1.7x
7.5%
6.3%
2.7%
73
150
0.9x
1.6x
0.3x
0.3x
$43.77
$6.52
3.5x
2.3x
0.0%
0.0%
1.8%
76
154
1.2x
1.7x
0.5x
0.5x
$26.00
$5.23
3.2x
2.3x
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
70
124
1.3x
1.9x
0.6x
0.5x
$22.84
$5.26
3.0x
2.1x
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
58
148
1.2x
1.9x
0.6x
0.5x
$22.12
$5.58
3.1x
2.2x
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
66
149
1.3x
1.9x
0.6x
0.5x
$22.08
$5.11
ASSETS
Cash & ST Investments
Receivables
Other Receivables
Inventories
Tax Receivables and Other Assets
Total Current Assets
Property and Equipment
Long-Term Investments
Other Non-Current Assets
Total Assets
Dec
Q4 11
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 7 of 14
Stratasys Ltd.
Dec
Q4 12
(Full year)
$8,823
19,497
8,874
(2,266)
(15,192)
(461)
Dec
Q4 13
(Full year)
($26,907)
92,436
24,262
(19,449)
13,368
(3,586)
Mar
Q1 14
(3 Months)
$4,087
23,367
6,736
(5,871)
(238)
(7,473)
Jun
Q2 14
(6 Months)
$3,914
48,579
13,814
(13,440)
(582)
(6,448)
Sep
Q3 14
(9 Months)
($27,438)
79,155
21,411
(45,188)
(916)
18,373
Dec
Q4 14
(Full year)
($119,470)
109,429
30,207
(53,887)
0
101,558
Mar
Q1 15
(3 Months)
($216,404)
28,907
9,760
(13,830)
0
189,104
(5,740)
(5,847)
(2,625)
1,438
290
6,538
615
0
$22,512
(28,502)
(7,724)
(4,216)
1,534
(435)
21,340
222
0
$1,494
(30,350)
(27,102)
(4,909)
(1,191)
(1,625)
5,481
11,601
0
$32,029
(10,417)
(13,216)
(891)
(1,100)
(379)
10,121
3,048
(2,914)
$4,860
(13,126)
(29,696)
(1,744)
(6,335)
(413)
3,234
6,956
4,905
$9,618
(32,972)
(31,710)
(4,206)
(10,516)
813
(615)
7,598
25,165
($1,046)
(46,717)
(39,370)
(5,078)
(10,537)
1,558
(4,305)
12,662
37,766
$13,816
4,563
(15,348)
(1,819)
8,916
(1,104)
10,093
2,747
(1,681)
$3,904
11,425
(18,729)
(6,192)
(3,935)
(990)
2,046
4,770
9,776
($11,744)
18,390
(23,193)
(5,479)
14,617
(99)
(3,755)
6,113
(8,483)
($29,637)
25,075
(12,408)
(6,497)
11,262
(439)
(1,937)
10,141
(9,215)
($21,910)
25,075
(12,408)
(6,497)
11,262
(439)
(1,937)
10,141
(9,215)
($21,909)
($12,849)
16,921
(42,877)
0
($38,806)
($8,181)
63,282
(15,075)
41,492
$81,518
($33,276)
(184,970)
(8,758)
253
($226,751)
($10,872)
1,634
(1,706)
41
($10,903)
($23,290)
126,382
(14,189)
(300)
$88,603
($43,799)
114,326
(144,509)
(81)
($74,063)
($60,497)
187,660
(154,144)
(458)
($27,439)
($14,408)
7,016
(4,177)
(99)
($11,668)
($44,791)
10,874
(5,187)
(152,282)
($191,386)
($75,443)
158,176
(9,905)
(184,631)
($111,803)
($84,299)
191,741
(12,652)
(187,892)
($93,102)
($84,298)
191,741
(12,652)
(187,892)
($93,101)
$0
0
0
8,769
0
$8,769
$0
0
0
30,489
0
$30,489
$0
0
462,872
12,043
0
$474,915
$0
0
0
1,278
(2,171)
($893)
$0
0
0
2,969
(12,965)
($9,996)
$0
0
0
8,503
37,035
$45,538
$0
0
0
7,906
37,035
$44,941
$0
0
0
1,969
(11,620)
($9,651)
$0
0
0
2,103
113,069
$115,172
$0
0
0
2,352
(68,846)
($66,494)
$0
0
0
2,871
(69,875)
($67,004)
$1
0
0
2,871
(69,875)
($67,003)
$64
(7,462)
27,554
$20,092
$233
113,734
20,092
$133,826
$69
280,262
133,826
$414,088
$16
(6,920)
414,088
$407,168
$1
88,226
414,088
$502,314
($1,016)
(30,587)
414,088
$383,501
($3,265)
28,053
414,088
$442,141
($1,694)
(19,109)
442,141
$423,032
($1,915)
(89,873)
442,141
$352,268
($1,988)
(209,922)
442,141
$232,219
($2,533)
(184,549)
442,141
$257,592
($2,532)
(184,545)
257,592
$73,047
Net income
Depreciation and Amortization
Stock Based Compensation
Deferred income tax
Excess tax benefit from stock options
Other
Changes in operating assets and liabilities
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Net investments in sales-type leases
Prepaid expenses
Other non current assets
Accounts payable
Unearned maintenance revenue
Other liabilities
Net cash provided by operating activities
Cash flows from investing activities:
Purchase of property and equipment, net
Proceeds (purchases) from investments
Payments for acquisitions/intangible asstes
Other
Net cash used in investing activities
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
(6 Months)
(9 Months)
(Full year)
(3 Months)
($239,548) ($1,140,985) ($1,373,511) ($1,373,510)
55,780
83,887
108,395
108,395
19,324
24,160
30,010
30,010
(25,196)
(61,208)
(19,129)
(19,129)
0
0
0
0
179,725
1,066,398
1,216,343
1,216,343
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 8 of 14
Stratasys Ltd.
Additional Information
(data in millions)
8/4/2016
Revenue Split ($)
Product
Services
Total
Sep
Q3 13
$108.3
17.7
$126.1
Dec
Q4 13
$135.6
20.1
$155.8
Mar
Q1 14
$129.5
21.7
$151.2
Jun
Q2 14
$154.1
24.4
$178.5
Sep
Q3 14
$160.2
43.4
$203.6
Dec
Q4 14
$168.6
48.5
$217.1
Mar
Q1 15
$126.7
46.1
$172.7
Jun
Q2 15
$134.5
47.8
$182.3
Sep
Q3 15
$118.5
49.1
$167.6
Dec
Q4 15
$124.3
49.0
$173.4
Mar
Q1 16
$118.6
49.3
$167.9
Jun
Q2 16
$123.8
48.3
$172.1
FY
2013
$417.1
69.6
$486.7
FY
2014
$612.4
138.0
$750.4
FY
2015
$503.9
192.0
$696.0
85.9%
14.1%
100.0%
87.1%
12.9%
100.0%
85.7%
14.3%
100.0%
86.3%
13.7%
100.0%
78.7%
21.3%
100.0%
77.7%
22.3%
100.0%
73.3%
26.7%
100.0%
73.8%
26.2%
100.0%
70.7%
29.3%
100.0%
71.7%
28.3%
100.0%
70.7%
29.3%
100.0%
71.9%
28.1%
100.0%
85.7%
14.3%
100.0%
81.6%
18.4%
100.0%
72.4%
27.6%
100.0%
40.5%
28.5%
38.7%
66.1%
36.9%
61.6%
56.4%
40.8%
53.9%
70.4%
49.8%
67.3%
47.9%
144.7%
61.5%
24.3%
140.9%
39.4%
-2.2%
112.4%
14.3%
-12.7%
96.2%
2.2%
-26.0%
13.1%
-17.7%
-26.3%
1.1%
-20.2%
-6.3%
7.0%
-2.8%
-8.0%
1.0%
-5.6%
36.3%
31.2%
35.5%
46.8%
98.4%
54.2%
-17.7%
39.2%
-7.2%
19.8%
9.0%
18.2%
25.2%
13.5%
23.6%
-4.5%
7.7%
-2.9%
19.0%
12.4%
18.1%
4.0%
78.1%
14.1%
5.2%
11.8%
6.6%
-24.9%
-5.1%
-20.4%
6.2%
3.8%
5.6%
-11.9%
2.7%
-8.1%
4.9%
-0.1%
3.5%
-4.6%
0.5%
-3.1%
4.3%
-1.9%
2.5%
$40.9
11.1
$51.9
$50.3
11.7
$62.0
$47.3
11.8
$59.1
$58.7
13.1
$71.8
$58.7
26.1
$84.8
$68.5
27.0
$95.5
$52.5
26.9
$79.3
$51.7
30.9
$82.6
$48.9
33.5
$82.4
$58.7
31.3
$90.0
$46.1
29.4
$75.5
$45.2
30.6
$75.8
$154.6
43.2
$197.8
$233.1
78.0
$311.1
$211.7
122.6
$334.3
Margin Profile
Product
Services
Total
62.3%
37.6%
58.8%
62.9%
41.9%
60.2%
63.5%
45.8%
60.9%
61.9%
46.3%
59.8%
63.4%
39.9%
58.4%
59.4%
44.3%
56.0%
58.6%
41.7%
54.1%
61.6%
35.4%
54.7%
58.7%
31.8%
50.8%
52.8%
36.2%
48.1%
61.1%
40.4%
55.1%
63.5%
36.6%
55.9%
62.9%
37.9%
59.4%
61.9%
43.5%
58.5%
58.0%
36.2%
52.0%
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 9 of 14
Stratasys Ltd.
Additional Information
(data in millions)
8/4/2016
Sep
Q3 13
$68.1
32.8
24.0
1.3
$126.1
Dec
Q4 13
$85.7
42.1
26.5
1.6
$155.8
Mar
Q1 14
$75.6
40.8
33.3
1.5
$151.2
Jun
Q2 14
$94.6
42.8
37.5
3.6
$178.5
Sep
Q3 14
$116.1
44.8
40.7
2.0
$203.6
Dec
Q4 14
$119.6
55.0
39.0
3.2
$216.9
Mar
Q1 15
$97.5
37.6
35.3
2.3
$172.7
Jun
Q2 15
$102.1
41.9
34.6
3.6
$182.3
Sep
Q3 15
$102.2
35.2
26.8
3.4
$167.6
Dec
Q4 15
$100.5
39.9
29.5
3.5
$173.4
Mar
Q1 16
$97.4
35.3
33.6
1.7
$167.9
Jun
Q2 16
$101.5
36.1
31.0
3.4
$172.1
FY
2013
$259.3
131.1
90.3
5.9
$486.7
FY
2014
$405.9
183.5
150.5
10.3
$750.1
FY
2015
$402.4
154.6
126.2
12.7
$696.0
55.0%
27.0%
17.0%
1.0%
100.0%
50.0%
27.0%
22.0%
1.0%
100.0%
53.0%
24.0%
21.0%
2.0%
100.0%
57.0%
22.0%
20.0%
1.0%
100.0%
55.2%
25.4%
18.0%
1.5%
100.0%
56.5%
21.8%
20.4%
1.3%
100.0%
56.0%
23.0%
19.0%
2.0%
100.0%
61.0%
21.0%
16.0%
2.0%
100.0%
58.0%
23.0%
17.0%
2.0%
100.0%
58.0%
21.0%
20.0%
1.0%
100.0%
59.0%
21.0%
18.0%
2.0%
100.0%
53.3%
26.9%
18.6%
1.2%
100.0%
54.1%
24.5%
20.1%
1.4%
100.0%
57.8%
22.2%
18.1%
1.8%
100.0%
77.8%
50.5%
44.6%
-19.2%
61.6%
50.9%
48.4%
69.3%
53.9%
53.9%
70.5%
48.7%
84.9%
67.3%
67.3%
70.5%
36.7%
70.0%
61.5%
61.5%
39.7%
30.8%
47.4%
105.1%
39.2%
29.1%
-7.8%
6.2%
48.8%
14.3%
7.9%
-2.1%
-7.6%
2.2%
2.2%
-11.9%
-21.4%
-34.2%
64.6%
-17.7%
-16.0%
-27.5%
-24.5%
8.5%
-20.1%
-0.2%
-6.3%
-4.9%
-25.4%
-2.8%
-0.6%
-13.8%
-10.6%
-5.6%
-5.6%
39.4%
25.1%
41.8%
-0.7%
35.0%
56.5%
39.9%
66.6%
73.8%
54.1%
-0.9%
-15.7%
-16.1%
23.3%
-7.2%
25.8%
28.3%
10.5%
23.6%
23.6%
-11.8%
-2.9%
25.6%
-2.9%
-2.9%
25.1%
4.9%
12.7%
136.1%
18.1%
22.7%
4.6%
8.7%
-43.0%
14.1%
3.1%
22.8%
-4.2%
56.9%
6.5%
-18.5%
-31.6%
-9.5%
-29.6%
-20.4%
4.7%
11.4%
-1.9%
62.1%
5.6%
0.1%
-16.1%
-22.6%
-8.1%
-8.1%
-1.6%
13.3%
9.9%
3.5%
3.5%
-3.1%
-11.6%
13.9%
-51.6%
-3.1%
4.2%
2.5%
-7.8%
105.0%
2.5%
Stratasys Ltd.
Page 10 of 14
Stratasys Ltd.
Additional Information
(data in millions)
8/4/2016
Units Shipped
Y/Y Increase
Q/Q Increase
Cumlative Total
Sep
Q3 13
5,925
388.1%
369.9%
64,855
Dec
Q4 13
10,963
865.1%
85.0%
75,818
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
Q2 16
8,802
14,909
10,965
11,214
7,536
6,731
5,467
4,629
5,125
5,394
653.6% 1082.3%
85.1%
2.3% -14.4% -54.9% -50.1% -58.7% -32.0% -19.9%
-19.7%
69.4% -26.5%
2.3% -32.8% -10.7% -18.8% -15.3%
10.7%
5.2%
84,620
99,529 110,494 121,708 129,197 135,928 141,395 146,024 151,149 156,543
FY
2013
19,317
325%
MakerBot
Revenues (in millions)
% of Sales
Y/Y Change
Q/Q Increase
$17.5
13.9%
400.0%
4.2%
$24.9
16.0%
315.0%
42.3%
$20.6
13.6%
79.1%
-17.3%
$70.7
14.5%
350%
Stratasys Ltd.
$33.6
18.8%
100.0%
63.1%
$31.5
15.5%
80.0%
-6.3%
$26.6
12.3%
7.0%
-15.4%
$16.9
9.8%
-18.0%
-36.6%
$14.4
7.9%
-57.0%
-14.5%
$14.2
8.5%
-55.0%
-1.9%
$10.1
5.8%
-62.0%
-28.6%
$12.9
7.7%
-23.6%
27.4%
$14.0
8.1%
-3.1%
8.5%
FY
2014
45,890
138%
FY
2015
24,363
-47%
$108.6
15.6%
-3%
Page 11 of 14
Stratasys Ltd.
5 Year Model
(data in millions, except per share)
8/4/2016
Fiscal Year Ending
Revenues
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profits
2015
$696.0
334.3
$361.7
2016E
$700.0
311.4
$388.6
2017E
$750.0
329.6
$420.3
2018E
$840.0
365.0
$475.0
2019E
$940.8
404.1
$536.7
2020E
$1,053.7
452.6
$601.1
$94.2
283.5
($16.0)
$92.4
261.6
$34.5
$103.3
273.3
$43.7
$114.1
289.3
$71.7
$125.9
307.0
$103.8
$138.9
324.9
$137.3
($7.6)
(23.6)
(33.2)
$9.6
$1.1
35.6
17.0
$18.6
$0.0
43.7
6.6
$37.2
$0.0
71.7
10.7
$60.9
$0.0
103.8
15.6
$88.2
$0.0
137.3
20.6
$116.7
$0.18
52.6
$0.35
52.8
$0.70
53.4
$1.12
54.4
$1.59
55.4
$2.07
56.4
52.0%
13.5%
40.7%
-2.3%
140.9%
1.4%
55.5%
13.2%
37.4%
4.9%
47.7%
2.7%
56.0%
13.8%
36.4%
5.8%
15.0%
5.0%
56.5%
13.6%
34.4%
8.5%
15.0%
7.3%
57.0%
13.4%
32.6%
11.0%
15.0%
9.4%
57.0%
13.2%
30.8%
13.0%
15.0%
11.1%
-7.2%
-114.7%
-90.7%
0.6%
315.9%
93.5%
7.1%
26.9%
99.7%
12.0%
63.9%
63.9%
12.0%
44.8%
44.8%
12.0%
32.3%
32.3%
Margin Analysis
Gross Margins
Research & Development
Selling, General & Admin
Operating Income
Tax Rate
Net Income
Year/Year % Change
Revenue
Operating Income
Net Income
Stratasys Ltd.
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C O M PA N Y N O T E
August 4, 2016
Notes: The boxes on the Rating and Price Target History chart above indicate the date of the fundamental Equity Research Note, the rating and the price
target. Each box represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent
the first Note written during the past three years.
Legend:
I: Initiating Coverage
R: Resuming Coverage
T: Transferring Coverage
D: Discontinuing Coverage
S: Suspending Coverage
OW: Overweight
N: Neutral
UW: Underweight
NA: Not Available
UR: Under Review
Count
Percent
BUY [OW]
414
56.10
Count
95
Percent
22.95
HOLD [N]
290
39.30
16
5.52
34
4.61
0.00
Note: Distribution of Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies currently covered by fundamental equity research in each rating category from
which Piper Jaffray and its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. FINRA rules require disclosure of
which ratings most closely correspond with "buy," "hold," and "sell" recommendations. Piper Jaffray ratings are not the equivalent of buy, hold or sell, but
instead represent recommended relative weightings. Nevertheless, Overweight corresponds most closely with buy, Neutral with hold and Underweight
with sell. See Stock Rating definitions below.
SELL [UW]
Stratasys Ltd.
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Research Disclosures
Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Stratasys Ltd. at the time this research report was published. Piper Jaffray will buy and sell Stratasys
Ltd. securities on a principal basis.
Within the past 3 years Piper Jaffray participated in a public offering of, or acted as a dealer manager for, Stratasys Ltd. securities.
Affiliate disclosures: Piper Jaffray is the trade name and registered trademark under which the corporate and investment banking products and services
of Piper Jaffray Companies and its subsidiaries Piper Jaffray & Co. and Piper Jaffray Ltd. are marketed. Simmons & Company International is a division
of Piper Jaffray & Co. This report has been prepared by Piper Jaffray & Co. and/or its affiliate Piper Jaffray Ltd. Piper Jaffray & Co. is regulated by FINRA,
NYSE and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, and its headquarters are located at 800 Nicollet Mall, Minneapolis, MN 55402. Piper
Jaffray Ltd. is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and is located at 88 Wood Street, 13th Floor, London EC2V 7RS. Disclosures
in this section and in the Other Important Information section referencing Piper Jaffray include all affiliated entities unless otherwise specified.
Rating Definitions
Stock Ratings: Piper Jaffray ratings are indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend) within the next 12 months. At times
analysts may specify a different investment horizon or may include additional investment time horizons for specific stocks. Stock performance
is measured relative to the group of stocks covered by each analyst. Lists of the stocks covered by each are available at www.piperjaffray.com/
researchdisclosures. Stock ratings and/or stock coverage may be suspended from time to time in the event that there is no active analyst opinion or
analyst coverage, but the opinion or coverage is expected to resume. Research reports and ratings should not be relied upon as individual investment
advice. As always, an investors decision to buy or sell a security must depend on individual circumstances, including existing holdings, time horizons
and risk tolerance. Piper Jaffray sales and trading personnel may provide written or oral commentary, trade ideas, or other information about a
particular stock to clients or internal trading desks reflecting different opinions than those expressed by the research analyst. In addition, Piper Jaffray
offers technical and event-driven research products that are based on different methodologies, may contradict the opinions contained in fundamental
research reports, and could impact the price of the subject security. Recommendations based on technical or event-driven analysis are intended for
the professional trader, while fundamental opinions are typically suited for the longer-term institutional investor.
Overweight (OW): Anticipated to outperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Neutral (N): Anticipated to perform in line relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Underweight (UW): Anticipated to underperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Stratasys Ltd.
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