Escorts Weekly Insight

822Oct
13Oct
Oct2012
2012
Oct2012
2012 to
to 27

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THE WEEK GONE BY

GLOBAL UPDATES

US Markets
In the us Markets,major indices closed the week on a disappointing note following the weaker than
expected economic data being reported by the US firms. Sluggish cues coming in from the
European markets too kept the local markets under pressure. However, improvement noted in the
local economy growth rate coupled with the positive cues coming in from the Chinese market,
some support was witnessed in the US market at lower levels.
Also, with the Fed sticking to its stimulus measures, some cushion was witnessed in the market at
lower levels

Key Highlights
The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2 percent in Q3 of 2012. GDP rose at a 1.3 percent
rate in the second quarter.
The U.S. New Home Sales rose to the highest level for more than two years. Sales were up by 5.7
percent to 389,000 in September 2012 from August.
The U.S. Durable Goods Orders jumped by 9.9 percent in September 2012 after tumbling by 13.1
percent in August.

Other Markets
On the global front, The jobless rate probably rose in October as U.S. employers kept a tight rein
on payrolls with the nation closing in on the so-called fiscal cliff, economists said before a report
this week.
On European front, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi endorsed a proposal by German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble for a commissioner who has power over the budgets of
nations in the euro region.
Spanish government bonds had their worst week since August amid speculation Prime Minister
Mariano Rajoy's regional election victory last weekend gives him more room to delay seeking a
bailout.

Key Highlights
China's Manufacturing sector has showed signs of improved in October 2012. HSBC's flash
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) moved up to 49.1 in October, from 47.9 in
September.
After declining for three consecutive quarters U.K. GDP rebounded in Q3 of 2012, rising by 1
percent QoQ.

DOMESTIC UPDATES

Indian indices ended marginally lower this week. The market sentiments were subdued due to lack
of any major announcements from Government. The F&O expiry also had an impact on the market
performance for the week. Corporate earnings were mixed and failed to give clear direction to the
markets.
Our markets were marginally up 0.4% for the week, outperforming major global equity indices.
Major European equity markets (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) were down ~3% during the week
as the EU summit disappointed the markets on (1) a concrete and fast timeline for a banking
union and (2) Spain seeking an official bailout. The US S&P index was down 1.4% while the major
emerging equity markets of Brazil, China and Russia were also down between 2%-3%. Results
performance dictated the movement of our markets. Performers like M&M, L&T, and TCS gained
while poor results performance from PNB on account of high increase in NPA(s) led to a sharp
decline in its stock price.

MARKET OUTLOOK AHEAD

The indices have been choppy in a narrow range for quite some time now. The results of course
will continue to pour in and steer stock-specific movement. All said and done, the comforting
factor is that the overall prospects for Indian equities have improved slightly.
The recent initiatives taken by the government augur well for now as sentiment had earlier been
hit by policy paralysis. Considerable challenges prevail on the macro front though with inflation
refusing to cool materially.
A lot of attention will be paid to the political developments over the weekend. Expectations are
that a cabinet reshuffle is on the cards which may bring in a whole set of young ministers. At the
least the government seems intent on showing that is means action even if it may appear
window dressing for the time being. Other events to keep on ones radar include data on
manufacturing PMI and Exports, besides monthly auto volumes.
The indices will look to break out of a range which they have occupied for around two weeks.
Market participants will keenly await the RBI policy meet on October 30. How well the RBI
and government coordinate on various issues will be something to watch closely.

GLOBAL INDICES

TOP 10 GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Company
M&M
L&T
IDFC
BPCL
Axis Bank
ICICI Bank
TCS
NTPC Ltd.
Ultratech Cement
HDFC Bank

NIFTY
Industry
Automobile
Capital Goods
NBFC
Oil&Gas
Banking
Banking
IT
Power
Cement
Banking

Returns
6.94
4.67
3.78
2.46
2.45
1.99
1.98
1.68
1.67
1.38

Company
Indiabulls Fin.
United Brew.
OBC
Motherson Sumi
Apollo Hospitals
Piramal Health
Max India
Hexaware
Divis Labs Ltd.
Thermax

CNX MIDCAP
Industry
NBFC
Consumer Prod.
Banking
Automobiles
Healthcare
Pharma
Insurance
IT
Pharma
Capital Goods

Returns
11.31
10.02
5.19
4.53
4.38
4.25
3.68
3.32
3.04
2.57

BSE SECTORAL INDICES

UPCOMING EVENTS OF THE WEEK ( GLOBAL & DOMESTIC)

DATE
29.10.2012
30.10.2012
30.10.2012
31.10.2012
01.11.2012
01.11.2012
01.11.2012

ECONOMY
US
India
US
US
US
US
US

02.11.2012

US

EVENT
U.S. Personal Income data for the month ended September,2012.
Indias Repo Cutoff Yield.
U.S. Consumer Confidence data.
U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications data for the week ended Oct 26,2012.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing data.
The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ended Oct 27, 2012.
The U.S. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort data for the week ended Oct 28,
2012.
U.S. change in Nonfarm Payrolls data.

Q2 RESULTS OF THE WEEK

29.10.2012 Aegis Logistics, Astra Micro, Bank of India, BHarat Electronics, BHEL, Colgate, EID
Parry, Geometric, GHCL, Havells, Jagran, Muthoot Finance, Noida Toll, SKS Micro,
Supreme Ind, Thomas Cook.
30.10.2012 Bilt, Biocon, Blue Dart, Dhampur Sugar, Dr. Reddys, Esab India, Glenmark, Grasim,
Heritage Foods, Hinduja Ven, IDBI Bank, IRB Infra, JK Tyre, Jyoti St, Jindal Saw, KEC
Int., Mcleod, Mahindra Satyam, Maruti Suzuki, PVR, Prestige Estates, Religare, Tata
Teleservices, Thermax,
31.10.2012 Aarti Ind, Aarti Drugs, Alstom India, Aptech, Bata India, Bayer Crop, Bharat Forge,
Claris Life, Container Corp, Deepak Fert, FT, GTL Infra, Gujrat Pipavav, J&K Bank,
Karur Vysya Bank, LIC Housing, Navneet, NHPC, Oracle, Orient paper, Power Grid,
TVS Motors, VIP Ind.
01.11.2012 20 Microns, Cebbco, EIH, Elecon Engineering, Gillette, GlaxoSmith Cons., Godrej Prop.,
Hexaware, Jb Chem., JSW Energy, Jyothi Labs, Muthoot Cap, NDTV, Network18,
Sundaram Clayton, TYransport Corp, TV18 Broadcast, V-Guard Ind,
02.11.2012 Apolo Tyres, Berger, BOC India, Brigade, Clariant Life, Crompton, Dishman, Elder
Pharma, GE Sipping, Greaves Cotton, Hotel Leela, ICRA, Ingersoll Rand, Jet Airways,
Marico, MRPL, MT Educare, Nestle, RECL, Shasun Pharma, Shree Renuka, Sobha,
SRF, Tube, Union Bank, Wipro.
03.11.2012 Action Constructions, Godawari Godrej Consumer, JK Cement, KSK, Venus Remedies.

Q2 RESULTS ANNOUNCED ( In Cr.)

COMPANY
NTPC
Dabur India
GAIL India
PNB
HUL
IOB
ICICI Bank
United Phosphorus
Hero Motocorp
JSW Steels
IDFC
Lupin Ltd

Revenue
Q2
Q2
FY13 FY12
16120 15378
1523
1259
11361 9699
4555
4342
6311
5610
5515
4823
12069 9897
960
900
5187
5829
8834
7625
2039
1716
1757
1408

Net Profit
% Ch Q2
Q2
FY13 FY12
4.8% 3142 2424
21%
202
174
17%
985
1094
4.91% 1066 1205
12%
807
690
14%
158
207
22%
1956 1503
7%
79
36
(11%) 441
605
16%
822
127
19%
476
524
25%
322
268

% Ch
29.6%
16%
(10%)
(11.6%)
17%
(24%)
30%
119%
(27%)
547%
(9%)
20%

MARKET STATS
MSCI INDICES
Index

Last Price

% Change
5D

MSCI World
MCSI AC World
MSCI Asia pac
MSCI EM

1300.23
328.59
121.53
990.70

(1.66)
(1.65)
(1.62)
(1.52)

1M

3M

1Y

(0.86)
(0.90)
(0.76)
(1.19)

4.01
4.16
4.84
5.19

3.67
2.93
(2.53)
(1.92)

10 YEARS BOND MARKETS

Name
US Generic Govt 10 Year
Yield
UK Govt Bonds 10 Year
Note Gen
Brazil Government Generic
Bond
Japan Govt Bond Year to
maturity
Australia Govt Bonds
Generic M
India Govt Bond Generic
Bid Yi

Yield
1.74

% Change
1W
1M
(1.03)
8.42

3M
21.37

1Y
(20.82)

1.86

(0.63)

10.33

26.13

(24.37)

2.61

1.20

(1.54)

(12.64)

(34.24)

0.76

(2.29)

(2.16)

3.93

(23.22)

3.24

1.88

5.71

14.32

(25.94)

8.13

(0.02)

(0.51)

0.18

(7.22)

VOLATILITY INDICES

CBOE SPX VOLATILITY

Last
17.81

% Change
5D
1M
4.39
13.22

INDIA NSE VOLAILITY

14.21

(3.72)

NAME

3M
6.64

1Y
(27.39)

(12.06) (13.56) (31.97)

PRECIOUS METALS

Name
Gold
Silver

Last Price
1711.30
32.09

% Change
5D
1M
(0.60) (2.36)
0.03
(5.49)

3M
5.91
16.51

1Y
(0.78)
(3.88)

INDUSTRIAL METAL & ENERGY MARKETS

Name
Copper
Aluminium
Zinc
Lead
Nymex Crude
Natural Gas

Last Price
7820.00
1922.00
1834.00
2015.00
86.28
3.40

% Change
1W
1M
(2.43)
(3.69)
(2.43)
(7.24)
(2.70)
(11.44)
(4.72)
(10.99)
(4.18)
(4.11)
(5.99)
5.75

3M
4.68
2.34
0.99
6.89
(3.48)
4.23

1Y
1.82
(13.22)
(1.13)
4.73
(4.34)
(19.58)

FOREX MARKETS
Name

Last Pr
80.06
1.29
0.62
2.02
79.65
53.57
6.25
1097.03

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT

EUR-USD X-RATE
USD-GBP X-RATE
USD-BRL X-RATE
USD-JPY X-RATE
USD- X-RATE
USD-CNY X-RATE
USD-KRW X-RATE

% Change
1W
1M
0.56
0.23
(0.66) 0.50
(0.64) 0.37
0.01
0.42
(0.41) (2.38)
(0.29) (0.37)
0.06
0.84
0.58
2.18

3M
(3.30)
5.33
(2.60)
(0.28)
(1.80)
4.82
2.15
4.54

1Y
5.01
(6.96)
(0.81)
(13.24)
(4.35)
(7.59)
1.67
3.22

MONEY MARKETS

MIBOR Offer Market 3M

Last Pr
0.31
0.20

% Change
1W
1M
(1.26)
(13.53)
0
(9.09)

3M
(29.93)
(52.38)

1Y
(26.24)
(87.42)

India Indicative Call Rate

8.05

(0.62)

0.63

(5.29)

Name
BBA LIBOR USD 3M

1.26

INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS
Entity
FIIs
DIIs
MF

Purchase
8116.19
3314.92
296.60

Sale
7421.93
3806.90
494.80

Net
694.26
(491.98)
(1983.20)

NEWS RECAP

The government is set to reshuffle the cabinet yet again this weekend following vacancies
created by the exit of Trinamool Congress from UPA and a host of other factors. Young Ministers are
expected to be given few portfolios.

Reliance Industries Ltd has announced that the Hon'ble High Court of Gujarat at Ahmedabad
has sanctioned the Scheme of Amalgamation of Reliance Jamnagar Infrastructure Limited with
Reliance Industries Limited.

Infosys, has announced it has completed the acquisition of Lodestone Holding AG, a leading
management consultancy based in Switzerland.

Dr. Reddy's, together with its subsidiaries, announces the intended public offer to acquire the
issued and outstanding shares of OctoPlus N.V., a service based specialty pharmaceutical company, for
an offer price of 27.39 million (cum dividend) in cash, representing 100% of the issued and
outstanding ordinary shares.

Godrej Properties Ltd, the real estate development arm of the Godrej Group, announced the
launch of the third tower in its premium residential project, Godrej Platinum, in Vikhroli, Mumbai.

Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta was sentenced to two years in prison by a
Manhattan court. Mr Gupta was ordered two year imprisonment for leaking the Goldman Sachss
boardroom secrets to Raj Rajaratnam, a hedge fund manager..

The Sun TV Network has won the Hyderabad franchise of the Indian Premier League for a little
over `0.85bn a year. (BL)

Hinduja Group signed an agreement with Spanish construction multinational OHL for joint
development of infrastructure projects in India and other countries. (BL)

Havells India Limited is looking to increase its market presence in India by adding 50 exclusive
Galaxy stores by the end of this financial year, of which 24 will be in south India alone, said joint
managing director Anil Gupta. (BS)

Oil India is in talks with Mozambique to pick up a stake in giant gas field Rovuma-1 after a
proposed energy policy allowed stakeholders to ship out their share of gas. (ET)

HMT is eyeing a turnover of `.10bn in the next five years and plans to foray into aerospaceand
manufacture of weapons and missile components. (ET)

Within two months of cutting rates on home and auto loans by 25-50 basis points, the State Bank
of India is seeing a major growth in these segments. While home loan applications have nearly tripled,
demand for auto loans has risen four-fold. (ET)

L&T Finance Holdings Limited said it has acquired Family Credit, a non-banking finance
company promoted by France's Societe Generale Consumer, for `1.2bn. (ET)

Suzlon Group firm REpower Systems has bagged a contract to supply wind turbines for a project
in Romania, the first order for the Indian entity from the European nation. (ET)

Rain commodities executed share purchase agreement with Triton to acquire 100 % stake in
Rutgers for gross enterprise value of 702 million. (BL)

CHART BOOK

CHART BOOK

DISCLAIMER

This report is distributed for information purpose only. The information in

this report does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to
buy any of the securities mentioned in the report. The readers may note
that neither Escorts Securities Ltd. ( ESL) nor its analysts or employees
take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, due to any transaction
undertaken or any action based on the information contained herein. ESL
reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement
as may be required from time to time.

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