Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
: 306
8th Aug,2016
Index
MarketView
1 Market View
Government to start the exercise to implement GST by introducing set of rules and regulations for states
and center both. The analysts world over have praised India for adopting the GST at very right time. In
Aroundthe
fact during the last ten years the actual shape and picture of GST has widely improved compared to the
Economy
3 original draft introduced before ten years. So the time lapsed has benefited the country. The country will
have major benefits on back of GST over long period of time. The ease of doing business will be greatly
KnowledgeCorner 3 improved, the revenue leakages will be minimized and the aggregate revenue to The Government will
be increased without increasing the tax burden.
MutualFund
4 The common question arises at this point of time is weather the market is overvalued? There are certain parameters to evaluate the market.
The market currently trades at PE of 19.3 which is also a ten year average valuation and is well below
ForexCorner
6 then the peak of 22.6 seen in 2007-08.
stands at 1.46% which is third highest in last decade. In 2012-13 the yield was 1.64% and in 2008-09 it
ShortTermCallStatus8 was 1.52% so the markets do not look expensive by this parameter also.
103% in 2008.
The market does not look over heated. Yet it is extremely important to evaluate the script thoroughly
SpecialContributors
before investing as the market is not cheap also at this level. It is also important to take into account the
AsheshTrivedi
effect of good monsoon and the sustained infrastructure spending by The Government. Last year The
AdityaNahar
Government completed the roads of 6000 kms and issued orders for 10000 kms. This year the target is
to order 25000 kms and finish 15000 kms. If 80% of this target is achieved it is a big jump over the ten
years average. Recently in an interview, Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley said that the market is up
20% since February but if one compares it with last August it is down by 1%. We look rich compared to
other emerging markets. In 2007 India traded at 2.2 times the EM book multiples. The Indias own book
multiple was 6.5 times and the rest of EMs was at 3.3 times. Today India is trading at 2.2 times EM
book multiple but Indias own book multiple is 3X which is half what it was in December 2007. Other
emerging markets have their own structural issues that is why their book multiple is drastically reduced.
It is also interesting to know that out of two companies, one company has surprised the market with
earnings. Considering the good growth prospects going forward, it is widely expected that the corporate
earnings will improve further. Technically the market has strong support at 8480-8500 range and
Forsuggestions,feedback resistance at 8680-8700 range above which, 8900 will be a resistance level.
andqueries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com K a m a l J h a v e r i
MD- Jhaveri Securities
-1-
Vol.: 306
8th Aug,2016
Company Basics
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)
506395
FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)
1.00
11.81
COROMANDEL
20.29
2.88
0.6040
15.90
29.14
6984.20
% Holding
6.33
9.47
62.10
0.00
13.16
8.95
Valuation : COROMANDEL is trading at `259. We recommend Buy with target price of `308, valuing stocks
17.5xFY19E EPS of `17.61.The stock currently trades at 18x of FY17E, 15.65x of FY18E and 13.61x of FY19E.
Company Overview
Coromandel is a flagship company of the Murugappa Group and is a subsidiary of E.I.D. Parry (India) Limited
(EIDP) which holds 60.81% of the equity share capital in the Company. The Company is engaged in the business
of farm inputs comprising of Fertilisers, Crop protection, Specialty Nutrients and Organic compost.
Investment rational
Pioneer in introducing and promoting the concept of Crop Specialty Nutrition in India
With its presence across water Soluble fertilizers, Sulphur products and Micro Nutrients segments, Coromandel ranks
among the market leader, providing crop specific solutions and quality agri inputs to the farming community. Government
introduced number of measures ranging from micro irrigation, balanced crop nutrition and soil health awareness which
bodes well with business objectives. Though the adverse seasonal conditions impacted the industrys performance in 201516, the segment continues to offer attractive growth opportunities.
Leader in the complex fertilizer segment
Coromandel has further fortified its leadership position in the Complex fertilizer segment, by enhancing its market share
from 23% in 2013-14 to 26% in 2014-15. It is now the market leader in Complex segment. The overall market share in
Phosphatics segment improved from 16.0 to 16.3% with a healthy volume growth of 15% over last year. Coromandel has
been at the forefront of providing unique farming solutions since its inception in 1961.
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Vol.:
306
8th Aug,2016
On the macro front, data released by the government after market hours on Monday, 1 August 2016 showed that eight core
industries comprising nearly 38% of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased 5.2% in
June 2016.
The outcome of a monthly survey released on Wednesday, 3 August 2016 showed that Indian service providers enjoyed a
welcome upturn in demand during July, with a faster increase in new business underpinning stronger growth of output and
boosting confidence.
The Rajya Sabha on Wednesday, 3 August 2016 passed the Goods and Services Tax (GST) constitutional amendment bill. The
amended GST bill once again will have to be ratified by the Lok Sabha.
The Bank of England on Thursday, 4 August 2016 cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% from 0.5%.
The major domestic event in the upcoming week is the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) third bi-monthly monetary policy
meeting scheduled on Tuesday, 9 August 2016. The central bank had left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in its
last meeting.
The government will announce data on industrial production for June 2016 on Friday, 12 August 2016. India's industrial
production (IIP) increased 1.2% in May 2016 over May 2015.
On Friday,12th August the inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) for July 2016 is scheduled to be released by
the government. CPI inflation accelerated to 5.77% in June 2016 from 5.76% in May 2016.
5. Fri: IIP data for the month of June 2016, CPI data for the month of July 2016, SBI. Avanti Feeds, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Bank of
India, BEL, Oriental Bank earnings
Knowledge Corner :
Enterprise Value
Enterprise Value, or EV for short, is a measure of a company's total value, often used as a more comprehensive alternative to equity
market capitalization. The market capitalization of a company is simply its share price multiplied by the number of shares a company
has outstanding.
Enterprise value is calculated as the market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash
equivalents. Often times, the minority interest and preferred equity is effectively zero, although this need not be the case.
- 3-
Vol.: 306
8th Aug,2016
Fund Name
Birla Sun Life Balanced '95 Fund
AMC
Type
Equity-oriented
Category
Launch Date
Financial
Automobile
19.91
8.04
Energy
7.92
Healthcare
6.99
Engineering
5.29
February 1995
Technology
5.07
Services
4.22
FMCG
3.42
Diversified
3.01
Chemicals
2.37
Fund Manager
Net Assets
(` In crore )
History
Fund (%)
Sector Weights
Scheme Name
2013
2014
2015
2016
367.19
545.50
563.81
631.77
6.13
48.58
3.36
12.05
Sharpe Ratio
1.40
+/- VR Balanced
-0.13
21.81
5.54
3.49
Beta
0.96
Rank (Fund/Category)
17/32
14/57
34/65
9/89
R-Squared
Alpha
0.90
367.19
547.99
581.68
631.77
314.56
354.48
534.04
504.22
620.20
1058.09
2099.74
2797.01
2.87
2.75
2.50
NAV (Rs)
Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation
12.44
9.65
Composition (%)
Equity
70.09
Debt
23.48
Cash
6.43
Fund Style
Investment Style
Growth
Blend
Value
Medium
Small
Fund
CNX Nify
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-
Capitalization
Large
Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com
Vol.: 306
8th Aug,2016
Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week bullion dropped where silver dropped by 2.64% followed by over 1% losses in gold prices where major loss came on Friday as the dollar rose after U.S. data showed employment increased more than expected in July, raising the probability of an interest rate hike from the
Federal Reserve this year. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 255,000 jobs last month as hiring rose broadly after an upwardly revised 292,000 surge in
June, the Labor Department said. U.S. employment increased more than expected in July and wages picked up, which should bolster expectations of
an acceleration in economic growth and raise the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 255,000 jobs
last month as hiring increased broadly after an upwardly revised 292,000 surge in June, the Labor Department said. Last month's strong job growth
should reinforce the Fed's confidence in a labor market that officials view as at or near full employment. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said the economy
needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth. The second straight month of robust job gains is a boost to the
economy after growth averaged a tepid 1.0 percent annual rate in the last three quarters. After a policy meeting last month, the Fed described the labor
market as having "strengthened" and said it appeared it was still tightening. The Bank of England cut interest rates to the lowest level in history. Interest
rates around the world have fallen into negative territory, providing a boost to bullion prices this year. Bullion prices in top consumer China were seen at
a premium of $1-$2 an ounce to the global spot benchmark, unchanged from last week. Premiums in Hong Kong also stayed at 20-60 cents an ounce.
In India, dealers were offering a discount of up to $58 an ounce, compared with last week's discount of $52. India's gold imports fell for a sixth straight
month in July as weak demand and record high discounts prompted banks and refineries to reduce overseas purchases of bullion. In the week ahead,
investors will continue to focus on U.S. economic reports to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike in the coming
months, with Fridays retail sales data in the spotlight.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 30950 SL 30650 TGT 31250-31600. BUY SILVER @ 45800 SL 45200 TGT 46800-47600
BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week, base metals prices ended with mixed node where zinc prices gained by around 2 percent followed by more than 2 percent
gains in nickel prices and 1.5 percent gains in aluminium prices while copper prices dropped over 3 percent and lead prices settled flat. Zinc prices
gained as support seen as mine-output cuts including those at Glencore Plc reduced supply. Nickel prices gained as Philippines suspends operation of
a seventh local nickel miner. Copper prices dropped amid mounting concern that economic stimulus planned around the world wont be enough to push
up demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., forecasts that the price may slump to $4,000 a metric ton over 12 months as mine supply picks up, producers
enjoy lower costs and demand growth softens. The closure of zinc mines in Australia and overseas is pushing up the price of zinc, which has already
risen 60 per cent this year to around $US2,240 a tonne. That makes zinc, which is primarily used to galvanise steel with a protective coating, the best
performing base metal of 2016. Recent closures include the giant Century mine in Australia and the Lisheen mine in Ireland. Output cuts, such as those
undertaken by Glencore, due to previously low prices have also contributed to expectations of shortages this year and next. A recent survey showed the
zinc market deficit this year at 221,000 tonnes this year and 269,000 next year. One sign of a tighter market are zinc stocks, which in LME approved
warehouses have fallen about 30 percent since September last year to 430,075 tonnes. The Philippine government has suspended the operations of
nickel miner Claver Mineral Development Corp, Environment and Natural Resources Secretary Regina Lopez said. The announcement raises the number of Philippine miners under suspension to seven, all of them nickel producers, as the government has launched a crackdown against those alleged
to cause environmental harm. The Philippines supplied 95 percent of China's nickel ore imports in the first six months of 2016, according to Chinese
customs data, and while global stocks are high a suspension or closure of more mines could drive refined nickel prices up further. Adding further optimism to July's reading, the labor participation rate ticked up by 0.1 to 62.8% while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.9%.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL ALUMINIUM @ 111 SL 113.50 TGT 109.50-107. SELL LEAD @ 122 SL 124 TGT 119-117.ELL COPPER @ 328 SL
336 TGT 320-312 SELL ZINC @ 154 SL 158 TGT 149-146. SELL NICKEL @ 730 SL 756 TGT 705-685
ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL : Crude oil prices settled flat recovering from lows as prices seen under pressure as a glut of crude and refined products weighed on
markets and investors eyed a possible stutter in China's imports. Downward pressure returned as overproduction in crude and refined products has left
onshore storage tanks brimming and triggered the chartering of tankers to store unsold fuel. Oil production from the Middle East swelled to a new high
while US output continued to shrink, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, suggesting that the strategy deployed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was starting to bear fruit. Near record high OPEC output has been a drag on oil prices over recent
months, with the cartel's members continuing to boost crude production. The latest data revealed that Iraq's oil output reached 4.6 million barrels per
day in July, its highest level since January. Crude oil stockpiles expanded by 1.41 million barrels over the week to July 29, following a 1.67 million barrels rise a week before, while had forecast a drop of 1.74 million barrels. Natural gas prices dropped by 3.53% as concerns about an uptick in production and forecasts of milder weather pressured the market. It was the first drawdown in a summer week since August 2006, and many analysts and
traders had expected natural gas to rally after the unexpected withdrawal. Weather reports have forecasted moderating temperatures over the next six
to 10 days, which could be putting downward pressure on natural gas prices. While hotterthan- average temperatures tend to lift demand for natural gas
as people look to cool their buildings, milder temperatures can do the reverse. U.S. natural gas supplies fell for the first time in the summer in a decade.
Supplies have only declined twice before in the summer, both times in 2006. While gas has rebounded after tumbling to a 17-year low five months ago
amid surging production from shale formations, inventories remain on course to reach an all-time high.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE @ 2720 SL 2600 TGT 2850-2940. BUY NAT.GAS @ 183 SL 175 TGT 190-198
- 5-
Vol.: 306
8th Aug,2016
Commodity Corner
Forex Corner
Market Recap :
The prices have been trading in rising channel pattern form past few weeks and price has shown breakdown of its lower
band of channel pattern at 67.40 levels on daily chart. Prices have been facing resistance of horizontal trend line at 67.50
levels on daily chart. Moreover, price have been trading below its 50 daily moving average which suggest near term
trend is weak. So any rally in the prices towards 67.50 level, used as selling opportunity. A momentum indicator RSI has
remained below 60 levels on daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices. A momentum indictor MACD has given
negative sign on hourly chart, which gives negative confirmation to the prices. For now we expect prices to move lower
towards 66.75 levels in few trading sessions.
USD/INR
Level
S2
S1
CP
R1
R2
High
Low
Close
USD/INR
66.77
66.89
67.08
67.20
67.39
67.28
66.97
67.00
Level
S2
S1
CP
R1
R2
High
Low
Close
EUR/INR
74.08
74.44
75.00
75.36
75.92
75.57
74.65
74.79
Level
S2
S1
CP
R1
R2
High
Low
Close
GBP/INR
86.77
87.51
88.69
89.43
90.61
89.88
87.96
88.24
Level
S2
S1
CP
R1
R2
High
Low
Close
JPY/INR
64.71
66.50
66.03
66.82
67.35
66.57
65.25
66.28
EUR/INR
GBP/INR
JPY/INR
-- 46--
Vol.: 306
8th Aug,2016
Nifty last week opened at 8654.30, attained high at 8711.30 and fell to a low of 8518.15. Nifty finally closed the week at
8683.15 thereby showed a net rise of 0.52% on week to week basis. The buying range was 8610-8545. The low
registered last week was 8518.15 and closed at 8683. Traders long and holding the same can maintain the stop loss at
8467. Expect a rise towards 8849-9119 range in time to come. The supply zone on week chart is 8849-9119. Support will
be at 8637-8563.
CMP on Rec.
CMP
Target
Absolute
Return @
CMP
Status
Coromandel
International
25/07/2016
235
259
308
10%
Buy
Capital First
06/06/2016
552
740
660
34%
Profit book
Wonderla Holidays
25/04/2016
387
402
498
4%
Accumulate
Mold-Tek Packaging
04/04/2016
138
204
179
48%
Buy
Jamna Auto
22/02/2016
133
199
181
50%
Buy
MT Educare
01/02/2016
164
147
230
-10%
Buy
Garware-Wall Ropes
28/12/2015
425
492
550
16%
Buy
AYM Syntax
23/11/2015
121
93
223
-24%
Buy
Natco Pharma
02/11/2015
509
636
636
25%
Buy
SRF
21/09/2015
1140
1538
1374
35%
Buy
Ahluwalia contracts
24/08/2015
235
290
368
23%
Buy
Infinite Computer
Sol.
20/07/2015
190
198
255
4%
Buy
Sadbhav
04/05/2015
298
285
430
-4%
Buy
Omkar speciality
Chemicals
16/03/2015
152
153
251
1%
Buy
DHFL
16/02/2015
252
247
368
-2%
Accumulate
TV Today Network
27/01/2015
222
296
337
33%
Buy
M&M
12/01/2015
1238
1498
1452
21%
Buy
Havells India
27/10/2014
274
404
346
47%
Buy
07/07/2014
39
40
45
4%
Buy
Adani Port
05/07/2014
280
240
347
-14%
Accumulate
Stocks
It'snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandhow
muchyoulosewhenyou'rewrong.
- 7-
Vol.: 306
8th Aug,2016
DATE
STOCK
BUY/
SELL
RANGE
RANGE
21Jun16
GODREJIND
BUY
367
373
22Jun16
BANKINDIA
BUY
95
97
23Jun16
HDFC
BUY
1228
24Jun16
BAJAJAUTO
BUY
27Jun16
BAJAJAUTO
TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE
SL
STATUS
%
RETURN
370.00 380.00
358
TA
3.70
96.00
92
TA
4.10
1200
OPEN
0.0
2654
2600
TA
3.00
BUY
2654
2600
TA
3.00
ULTRACEMCO BUY
3365
3300
OPEN
0.0
100.00
28Jun16
29Jun16
BRITANNIA
SELL
2723
2777
2680 2663.00
2830
SL
3.60
30Jun16
SKSMICRO
BUY
725
745
760.00 775.00
705
TA
5.00
4Jul16
LT
BUY
1525
1485
TA
3.20
10
5Jul16
ICICIBANK
BUY
245
250
247.50 262.00
236
TA
5.50
11
7Jul16
RELINFRA
BUY
565
575
570.00 597.00
550
EXPIRE
0.0
12
8Jul16
DRREDDY
BUY
3500
3400
EXPIRE
0.0
13
11Jul16
ASIANPAINT BUY
1005
975
TA
4.80
14
12Jul16
CANBK
BUY
232
238
235.00 248.00
224
TA
5.50
15
13Jul16
VEDL
BUY
158
162
160.00 169.00
154
TA
5.60
16
14Jul16
GAIL
BUY
387
394
390.50 400.00
375
TA
3.80
17
15Jul16
BANKBARODA BUY
160
166
163.00 170.00
156
EXPIRE
0.0
18
18Jul16
LICHSFGFIN
BUY
520
532
526.00 557.00
500
EXPIRE
0.0
19
19Jul16
BHARTIARTL SELL
365
359
362.00 346.00
375
TA
4.40
20
20Jul16
CUMMINSIND BUY
823
838
830.50 870.00
800
TA
4.80
21
21Jul16
SIEMENS
BUY
1329
1300
OPEN
0.0
22
22Jul16
KSCL
SELL
405
395
400.00 380.00
417
TA
5.20
23
25Jul16
GODREJIND
BUY
442
452
447.00 470.00
430
SL
3.90
- 7-
Vol.: 306
8th Aug,2016
DATE
STOCK
BUY/
SELL
RANGE
24
26Jul16
HDFC
BUY
1365
25
27Jul16
AJANTPHRMA BUY
26
28Jul16
HCLTECH
27
1Aug16
28
STATUS
CMP
%
RETURN
1335
OPEN
0.00
1685
1645
TA
5.00
BUY
743
757
750.00 785.00
723
TA
4.40
BRITANNIA
BUY
2900
2780
OPEN
0.00
3Aug16
MARICO
BUY
297
303
300.00 309.00
288
OPEN
0.00
29
4Aug16
AJANT
PHARMA
BUY
1800
1750
OPEN
0.00
30
5Aug16
CADILAHC
BUY
364
372
350
OPEN
0.00
STAUTS
CALLS
RATIO
TA+PB
16
93.33
SL+EXIT
6.66
TOTAL
30
100
TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE
SL
368.00 390.00
One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)
- 7-
Vol.: 306
8th Aug,2016