Radical changes/paradigm shift required in Agriculture

Dr. Shamsul Alam

The green revolution based on seeds, fertilizers and irrigation began in the mid-60s of the last
century through the development of the high yield variety of rice and wheat seeds. The
development of high yield varieties of wheat and rice led to the start of the above mentioned
green revolution. The development of the high yielding wheat and rice varieties was a turning
point in the history of agriculture and over the course of time its sweeping tide has been
gradually augmented in Bangladesh as well. After independence, the production capacity of
cereals was little over a crore ton, whereas production has now increased to around four crore
tons. What was once a country with continuous food shortages is now a food surplus one and
now we even have to resort to new export markets in order to maintain the price of our
agricultural products. Substantial changes have taken place in the agricultural subsectors. Fishery
and Poultry subsectors experienced market based commercialization. At the same time the scope
of expansion of our forests have increased rapidly. Although not at the level desired,
diversification has taken place in the subsectors of crop production. Fruits cultivation has
increased and vegetables are now being produced round the year and not limited to seasonal
cultivation. Major changes have taken place in the structure of agricultural ownership and this
has led to the fact that even though agricultural growth has been positive over the past four
decades, it has been gradually trending downward. Small, marginal and share cropping farmers
are now assigned with the duty of crop production. Farm size is also declining fast. In 1983-84,
small farms (measuring between 0.05 to 2.49 acres) made up 70% of total farms, which
increased to 84% in 2008 and currently account for more than 90%.
Large and medium farmers have been gradually transformed into small and marginal ones.
Although large and medium farmers are still engaged in farming, they have now branched out to
non-farm activities. 87% of rural farming households are now associated with income generation
from non-farm activities. Probably the rural households are being encouraged to seek non-farm
forms of employment in order to avoid the natural and price related risks posed by agricultural
activities. Such opportunities have been created by the electrification of rural roads, localities
and local markets. Electricity connections has increased rapidly in the last six to seven years.
The villages are now connected via the upazilas and zilas to the large cities including the capital
and at the same time, global connectivity has also increased. Mobile connections have not only
made it possible for each village to be interconnected to markets and cities, each village is now a
globalized village that is connected to the rest of the world. Village and city dwellers are no
longer distinguishable in their ways of life, even in their choice of clothing. But the use of
physical labor and dependence on nature are still very prominent factors in agriculture. 45% of
the labor force is still employed in agriculture and this class of workers bear the entire weight of
the sector on their shoulders. This proves that the level of use and innovation in the
mechanization of agriculture is still below sufficient levels. Agriculture could not still be brought
out of its dependence on nature, and for this reason such a large number of labor force is still
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employed in low productivity and low paying jobs. In Japan, only 4% of the total labor force is
accountable for the production of the entire agricultural output. Similarly, in the Netherlands,
only 2% of the labor force is related to agricultural production and is the major exporter of
agricultural output in the entire European continent. In Canada and the USA, the respective
figures for agricultural employment are 2% and 1.4%. To come out from nature dependent
agriculture, increase per unit land productivity by a few factors with the aid of improved
mechanical technology, use tissue culture, and adopt automation in processing and packaging is
not possible for the marginal, share cropping and small farmers of our country. For the sake of
their livelihoods, small farmers have to depend on the production of crops. If they have the
opportunity and the required physical wellbeing, they will shift to other forms of employment.
That the government is concerned with the agricultural sector is beyond question. But still a
question remains. In this privately managed form of agricultural system, especially in the crop
subsector, even with the aid of government input subsidies, low interest loans and training
assistance, but without a change in the structure of the agricultural sector it is perceived that it
will not be possible in the existing technology of seed, fertilizer, water and nature dependence
to increase output by few folds. To create another Turning Point in the history of agriculture of
Bangladesh, a change in the views on agriculture has become of the outmost importance.
In the period of FY 2001-02 to 2005-06, the average annual growth rate of the agricultural sector
was 2.98% while the growth was 3.15% for the period of FY 2011-12 to FY 2015-16. Although
the highest growth rate of agriculture achieved in our country was 5.5% but after that, the growth
rate never rose up to the 5% level. In FY2015 the agricultural growth rate was 3.33%, which was
2.6% in the fiscal year of 2016. Providing substantial amounts of subsidy and other incentives,
low interest loans and training is wholeheartedly supported by the government. I believe that
Bangladesh has reached the threshold level of increasing agricultural productivity through the
use of high yield variety of seeds, fertilizers and irrigation. To come out of this situation,
especially in the crop subsector, a large scale structural change has become a prerequisite. In the
current fiscal year, the projected growth in the industrial sector is 10.10%, for the service sector
is 6.7%, for the agricultural sector is only 2.6% while the overall growth of the economy is
projected to be 7.5%. We were able to exceed the 7% growth mark thanks to the double digit
growth in the industrial sector. It is expected that the growth in the industrial and service sectors
will be higher in the coming days. The problem will remain in the nature dependent agricultural
sector (especially the crop subsector) where growth may exhibit fluctuations or even downward
trends. It is true that the country is experiencing industrialization, with 31.28% of our national
income coming from the industrial sector. The contribution of the service sector is the highest
with 53.39% while agriculture contributes 15.33%, and their contributions will have to gradually
increase. In raising the per capita income, the contributions of the last two sectors will increase.
But even then, the country needs to be self-sufficient in its agricultural sector. To ensure the
Food and Nutrition security/sustainability, the importance of the Agriculture is indispensable.
Netherlands has one-third of land area of Bangladesh whereas the total population of
Netherlands is one-tenth of Bangladesh. For Netherlands 72% of GDP is generated from the
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service sector, 26% contribution comes from industry while contribution of agriculture is 2%.
Only 2% of the labor force is engaged in agricultural sector. In another context; for Japan 72% of
GDP is gathered from service sector, 26.7% contribution from industry while contribution of
agriculture is 1.5%. By engaging just 2% of its labor force, Netherlands is the frontline exporter
country of Europe for agriculture product.
In Bangladesh 45% of the total labor force is engaged in agriculture. As a large portion of the
labor force of Bangladesh is engaged in this sector, per capita product remains very low which
indicates our backwardness in technology compared to Japan and the Netherlands. Till today our
agriculture sector still remain as a sector of low wages and low productivity.
For transforming to the high-tech agriculture (Hybrid seed, GM seed, environmentally
sustainable green house, deep irrigation, Tissue Culture, Harvesting & Husking tools, Drymachine) its really a challenge for small, marginalized and share cropping farmers of
Bangladesh to undertake such costly investment and skill enhancement. Probably Bangladesh
has reached the highest level of labor intensive and input based production level. Intensity of the
small farming and lack of investment is a big obstacle for promoting skill based, hi-tech agro
firm. As a paradigm shift we have to promote large scale agro-firm in Bangladesh. as an
instance, Kazi Farms is investing in Tea gardens. PRAN, AGORA and SWAPNO has invested in
agro-product marketing. But in the crop production sector (e.g. corn, rice potato, vegetables,
banana) large scale agro-firm is absent in Bangladesh.
Now a day, agriculture has to transform to business based entity like Agri-business. Agriculture
of Bangladesh have to adopt modern technology by enhancing skill and developing a holistic
agriculture marketing system.
We need to improve quickly in order to increase our export of agricultural products. In the
history of Bangladesh agriculture for "carting the second turning point", the private sector should
come forward with big investment for this sector. Investment has to be increased for developing
large Agro-firm. To make this transformation, the Government has to provide the highest level of
policy support to the private investors. Currently the Government has deployed agriculture
officials at the upazila level and firms will also come forward to appoint agriculturists if large
firms are developed in the country through the private sector. As an example, many private
fisheries are motivating and attracting fresh graduates from Fisheries with high salaries (example
- Hachihata Fish firm, commercial Fisheries in Trishal & Valuka).
If the scenario changes, agricultural graduates will be employed in the firms at the upazila level.
In the phase of high-tech transformation, Government should continue the subsidies and cash
transfers for the marginalized farmers.
(The author is President, Bangladesh Krishi Aurthonitibid Somiti)