Mr. Prachanda s predecessor, K.P.

Sharma Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unif

ied Marxist-Leninist), had come to power last October with Maoist support and ha
s accused his successor of betraying him. To be fair, however, it was increasing
ly evident that Mr. Oli was isolated and unable to deliver on the political and
economic challenges facing the country. Mr. Prachanda realised that continuing t
he coalition would not help his party. In April, he had begun talks with Nepali
Congress (NC) leader Sher Bahadur Deuba about creating a new coalition, and on M
ay 4 announced that the Maoists were withdrawing support from the Oli government
. However, within 24 hours, a patch-up had been effected with CPN(UML) leader Ba
m Dev Gautam acting as the mediator.
A nine-point agreement was negotiated to address Maoist concerns but more signif
icant was the gentlemen s agreement that following the budget presentation, due at t
he end of May, Prime Minister Oli would step down and the CPN(UML) would support
Mr. Prachanda as the next Prime Minister. By the end of June, it was clear that
Mr. Oli was in no mood to implement the gentlemen s agreement .
He first prolonged his tenure by suggesting that the deal was not about presenti
ng the budget but about getting it through the Assembly. Mr. Prachanda got wind
of the fact that Mr. Oli was also reaching out to the NC to get their support in
the eventuality of the Maoists pulling out. He realised he had to apologise to
the NC for his embarrassing about-turn in May and revived backchannel talks.
Like Mr. Prachanda, Mr. Deuba too saw the Oli government as dysfunctional and co
ncluded that there was no advantage in doing a deal with Mr. Oli. Normally, Mr.
Deuba is not known to be a forgiving person but the backchannel interlocutors (N
C s Bimalendra Nidhi and K.B. Mahara from the Maoists) were able to keep the discu
ssions on track and swing the deal this time around. On July 12, Mr. Prachanda o
nce again announced that he was withdrawing support from the Oli government and
followed through with the filing of a no-confidence motion against the governmen
t the following day. Incidentally, Mr. Nidhi and Mr. Mahara were both sworn in a
s Deputy Prime Ministers with key portfolios of Home and Finance, respectively,
last week.
NC-Maoist coalition prospects
Many political observers feel that an NC-Maoist coalition will prove to be more
stable than the preceding ones. The fact is that it was under NC stalwart G.P. K
oirala s leadership that the peace deal with the Maoists was concluded in 2005-06,
which allowed them to come into democratic electoral politics. However, problem
s arose shortly after the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections in which the Maois
ts scored an unexpected victory. With 229 seats in an Assembly of 601, they were
by far the largest party, followed by the NC and CPN(UML) with 115 and 108 seat
s, respectively.
In return for supporting the Maoist demand that the Constituent Assembly declare
Nepal a republic, thereby abolishing the 250-year-old monarchy, G.P. Koirala ex
pected to be sworn in as the first President of the newly created Republic of Ne
pal with Maoist support. However, Mr. Prachanda reneged on the deal; the Maoists
put up their own candidate who was eventually defeated when the NC s Ram Baran Ya
dav was elected as the first President. G.P. Koirala, who had wanted to be elect
ed unopposed, instead took on the role of Leader of the Opposition in the Assemb
ly. As Mr. Prachanda now acknowledges, this was a political error for G.P. Koira
la then became a formidable opponent.
Nine months later, Mr. Prachanda s coalition partners deserted him following his c
ontroversial decision to sack Chief of Army Staff General Rookmangud Katawal, wh
ich was not upheld by President Yadav, forcing him to resign. It was an ignomini
ous end to a short tenure and for the last seven years political power has elude
d Mr. Prachanda. The governments that followed, beginning with CPN(UML) leader M

adhav Nepal in 2009, enjoyed coalition combinations based on the NC and CPN(UML)
or the CPN(UML) and Maoists, with added support from some of the smaller partie
s.
During the years out of power, Mr. Prachanda saw a weakening of his position as
also that of his party. In 2011, when the Maoists got another chance to lead the
government, coalition partners preferred his colleague Baburam Bhattarai as bei
ng more dependable. Dr. Bhattarai became Prime Minister and Mr. Prachanda sulked
; later the two drifted apart and eventually, last year Dr. Bhattarai split from
the Maoists, launching his own party, Naya Shakti. The hard-line faction led by
Mohan Baidya Kiran had already split in 2012, accusing Mr. Prachanda of being a
revisionist .
The 2013 elections brought down the Maoist strength from 229 to 80; in contrast,
the NC emerged as the largest party with 196 seats, followed by the CPN(UML) wi
th 175. Therefore while Mr. Prachanda has become Prime Minister because of his r
ole as kingmaker, his party is clearly the junior partner in the new coalition.
All of this should certainly make the new Prime Minister a little more cautious
and careful in managing the coalition.
Under the terms of the understanding with the NC, Mr. Prachanda s tenure will be n
ine months, during which local body elections will be conducted. Thereafter, he
is expected to step down in support of NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba who will be
taking over as Prime Minister for the fourth time. He will oversee the provincia
l and national elections that are likely to be held in November next year, in ac
cordance with the new Constitution.
Prachanda s opportunity
The NC-Maoist coalition will be faced with a number of challenges in the coming
months. Mr. Prachanda is still struggling to give shape to his Cabinet. He would
like to get the Madhesi groups and Janajatis on board but the Sanghiya Gathaban
dhan want to first see what kind of pronouncements are made about making the new
Constitution truly federal and inclusive. Here, Mr. Prachanda will have to use
his political charm to hold out a healing hand, something that his predecessor f
ailed to understand.
To strengthen his leadership within his party, Mr. Prachanda would like to bring
the pending legal cases against the Maoist cadre going back to the decade-long
insurgency (1996-2005) to a closure, which could lead to strains with the NC. It
was during Mr. Deuba s earlier tenure as Prime Minister in 2001 that the Nepal Ar
my was first deployed against the Maoists and Mr. Prachanda would do well to ste
er clear of going down the path of another confrontation with the Army. One of h
is major complaints against the Oli government was its reluctance to resolve the
se pending cases, but doing it in a manner that is acceptable to the cadre and d
oes not lead to legal challenges will not be easy.
Easier perhaps are simple steps to get the post-earthquake reconstruction effort
s going. The international community had generously pledged $4.4 billion for the
reconstruction effort at an international conference held in Kathmandu last yea
r. Yet, very little of this money has actually come in because the Oli governmen
t wasted months in seeking to establish new institutional mechanisms, leading to
turf battles. India has pledged $1.65 billion of concessional funds during the
last two years but has been able to use up only $150 million. Similar is the sit
uation with the Indian grant assistance of $250 million intended for rebuilding
dwelling units in some of the worst-affected areas. Other development partners t
oo have similar experiences and in some cases, lack of utilisation may well lead
to the pledges lapsing on account of budgetary cycles.
On the foreign policy front, Mr. Prachanda needs to repair the damage done by hi

s predecessor Mr. Oli to relations with India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has
already congratulated him on his appointment and invited him for a bilateral vis
it. The last time Mr. Prachanda visited India as Prime Minister was in September
2008 but the goodwill generated was short-lived as he began to blame Indian int
erference to cover up for his shortcomings. He has another opportunity now to ma
ke his second nine-month tenure truly productive and recover his lost political
legacy.
Rakesh Sood is a former diplomat who has served as Ambassador to Nepal and is cu
rrently Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
Keywords: Prachanda, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepal PM election