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Wi-Fi enabled mobile phone

handsets in the US, 2010-2015

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 Coda Coda Research Consultancy

Wi-Fi enabled mobile phone handsets in the

US, 2010-2015

Steve Smith PhD

Research Director

Coda Research Consultancy

Released February 2010

For more information about this product, please email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk, or call
+44 (0)7779 610004

European office:
Coda Research Consultancy Ltd
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England

© Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, 2010

All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any
nature, without prior written permission of Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, except where this is expressly permitted under the Copyright Designs
and Patents Act 1988 or the Copyright and Rights in Databases Regulations 1999.

This report draws upon research and analysis conducted by Coda Research Consultancy. Use of this report by any third party for whatever
purpose should not, and does not, absolve such third party from using due diligence in verifying the report’s contents. Any use which a third party
makes of this document, or any reliance on it, or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third party. Coda Research
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this document. Coda Research Consultancy does not make investment recommendations, in this report or otherwise, and nothing in this report
should be interpreted as an opinion by Coda Research Consultancy either on market forecasts or on the prospects of specific companies.

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Contents
Introduction ................................................... 6
Overview ...................................................... 6
Questions this report answers ......................... 6
Who Needs This Report? ................................ 6
Notes ........................................................... 7
Methodology ................................................. 7
Wi-Fi handset manufacturer profiles............. 8
Apple............................................................ 8
RIM .............................................................. 8
Nokia............................................................ 9
Samsung....................................................... 9
HTC.............................................................. 9
Palm............................................................10
Motorola ......................................................10
LG ...............................................................10
Wi-Fi overview ............................................. 12
Background..................................................12
Wi-Fi generations..........................................12
Wi-Fi Alliance certifications ............................13
Worldwide Wi-Fi adoption ........................... 14
The eco-system of Wi-Fi devices ....................14
Wi-Fi device models entering the
worldwide market ..........................14
Worldwide Wi-Fi device usage, with
forecasts to 2015 ...........................15
Wi-Fi penetration by region ...............15
Worldwide Wi-Fi device shipments,
including forecasts to 2015 .............16
The worldwide Wi-Fi enabled phone market,
including forecasts to 2015 ........................ 17
The worldwide market for Wi-Fi enabled
handsets...................................................17
Growth in Wi-Fi enabled handset models
entering the worldwide market, 2000-
2009 .............................................17
Wi-Fi enabled handset models entering
the worldwide market worldwide in
2009, by brand and type ................18
Worldwide Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset
shipments, including forecasts to 2015
.....................................................19
Wi-Fi enabled handset shipments
worldwide as proportions of all
handset shipments: forecasts to 2015
.....................................................19
United States Wi-Fi enabled handset
forecasts, to 2015 ........................................ 20
US Wi-Fi mobile handset shipment forecasts to
2015.........................................................20
Proportion of mobile handset shipments in the US
that are Wi-Fi enabled, forecast to 2015 ......20
US Wi-Fi enabled smartphone vs Wi-Fi enabled
feature phone shipments, 2009-2015.......... 21
US Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset penetration
forecasts to 2015 ...................................... 21
US Wi-Fi users via Wi-Fi enabled mobile handsets
forecasts to 2015 ...................................... 22
Drivers to take-up ........................................23
Demand for Wi-Fi enabled handsets in the US 23
In-home Wi-Fi usage .................................... 23
US Wi-Fi household penetration
forecasts to 2015........................... 23
US smartphone take-up, and Wi-Fi enabled
smartphone forecasts ................................ 25
Wi-Fi enabled handsets available in the
US, by manufacturer...................... 25
Top mobile handsets in use in the US 25
Intended smartphone purchases ....... 26
US smartphone shipments with and
without Wi-Fi capability, with forecasts
to 2015 ......................................... 27
US smartphone owners with and without
Wi-Fi capability, with forecasts to 2015
.................................................... 27
US smartphone owners’ demographics make Wi-
Fi attractive .............................................. 28
US smartphone owners’ demographics28
Wi-Fi hotspots ..............................................29
The US in worldwide context ......................... 29
The US experience ....................................... 30
Wi-Fi hotspot type comparison .......... 30
Smartphones will become the dominant
device used in US Wi-Fi hotspots .... 30
Smartphone connections to US Wi-Fi hotspots,
with forecasts to 2015 ............................... 31
Wi-Fi connections via smartphones by
US city .......................................... 32
Wi-Fi take-up: Imperative to US carriers ....33
Carrier Wi-Fi roll out ..................................... 33
Wi-Fi: Crucial to offload 3G traffic .................. 33
The current state of 3G..................... 33
Impact of smartphones upon carrier
traffic and network utilization ......... 34
Growth in Wi-Fi traffic during 2009 .... 34
Wireless speed comparisons.......................... 35
Speed comparison across wireless
standards...................................... 35
Wi-Fi hotspots conducive to high bandwidth
content and applications ............................ 36
Smart Wi-Fi ................................................. 36
The importance of Wi-Fi for mobile video ....... 37
US video users via mobile handsets, with
forecasts to 2015........................... 37
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 US video traffic via mobile handsets,
with forecasts to 2015 ....................37
Cost advantages and access to alternative
revenue stream .........................................38
Cost advantages of Wi-Fi for carriers..38
Access to revenue stream from Wi-Fi .38
Next generation Wi-Fi (802.11n, 802.11u). 39
802.11n overview .........................................39
802.11n enabled smartphones .......................39
Access point shipments .....................39
802.11n roll out on smartphones,
including forecast, 2009-2015 .........40
802.11u .......................................................40
US Wi-Fi users’ demographics and behavior41
Demographics ..............................................41
Wi-Fi behavior via mobile handsets ................42
Wi-Fi enabled smartphone owners’
satisfaction around Wi-Fi, and
preference over 3G ........................42
Behavior by device........................................42
Wi-Fi behavior via iPhone ..................42
Wi-Fi behavior via RIM Blackberry......43
Wi-Fi behavior via Nokia ....................43
Wi-Fi behavior via Android.................43
Sources ......................................................... 44
About Coda Research Consultancy .............. 45
Notes ............................................................ 46

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Figures and tables
Figure 1. Historical quotes for Apple Inc (US$) ..... 8
Figure 2. Historical quotes for RIM (US$) ............. 9
Figure 3. Historical quotes for Nokia (Euros)......... 9
Figure 4. Historical quotes for Palm (US$) ...........10
Figure 5. Historical quotes for Motorola (US$) .....10
Figure 6. Wi-Fi generations overview (802.11 a, b. g
and n) ......................................................12
Figure 7. Wi-Fi enabled handsets certified by Wi-Fi
Alliance, by handset type ...........................13
Figure 8. The eco-system of Wi-Fi devices...........14
Figure 9. Wi-Fi enabled devices certified by the Wi-
Fi Alliance, by year ....................................14
Figure 10. Wi-Fi enabled devices in use worldwide,
2008-2015 ................................................15
Figure 11. Wi-Fi household penetration: How the US
compares, 2009.........................................15
Figure 12. Worldwide Wi-Fi enabled device
shipments, 2008-2015 ...............................16
Figure 13. Wi-Fi handset models entering the
worldwide market, 2000-2009 ....................17
Figure 14. Wi-Fi enabled mobile handsets entering
the worldwide market in 2009, by
manufacturer ............................................18
Figure 15. Wi-Fi enabled smartphones entering the
worldwide market in 2009, by manufacturer 18
Figure 16. Worldwide Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset
shipments (incl. smartphones), 2008-2015...19
Figure 17. Ratios of Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset
shipments to all mobile handset shipments,
2009-2015 ................................................19
Figure 18. US Wi-Fi mobile handset shipments,
2009-2015 ................................................20
Figure 19. US proportion of mobile handsets
shipped with Wi-Fi, 2009-2015....................20
Figure 20. US Wi-Fi enabled smartphones vs Wi-Fi
enabled feature phones shipments, 2009-2015
................................................................21
Figure 21. US Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset
ownership, 2009-2015 ...............................21
Figure 22. US Wi-Fi users via mobile handsets,
2009-2015 ................................................22
Figure 23. Proportion of ad requests made via Wi-Fi
enabled devices, 2008-2009 .......................22
Figure 24. US Wi-Fi household penetration, 2008-
2015 ........................................................24
Figure 25. Wi-Fi enabled handsets available in the
US, by manufacturer and handset type ....... 25
Figure 26. Top mobile handsets in the US, with and
without Wi-Fi capability ............................. 26
Figure 27. Smartphones people intend to purchase
that are Wi-Fi enabled ............................... 26
Figure 28. US smartphone shipments with and
without Wi-Fi capability, 2009-2015 ............ 27
Figure 29. US smartphone owners with and without
Wi-Fi capability, 2008-2015........................ 27
Figure 30. US smartphone owner demographics.. 28
Figure 31. Top ten countries for public Wi-Fi
hotspots................................................... 29
Figure 32. Top locations for public Wi-Fi hotspots in
the US ..................................................... 30
Figure 33. Proportion of Wi-Fi connections to
hotspots via smartphones, 2009-2015......... 31
Figure 34. Public Wi-Fi connections by smartphones
across ten US cities ................................... 32
Figure 35. US 3G+ traffic via handsets, 2009-2015
............................................................... 33
Figure 36. Smartphone penetration vs peak carrier
network utilization..................................... 34
Figure 37. Proportion of mobile ad requests made
via Wi-Fi, 2008-2009 ................................. 35
Figure 38. Typical throughout speeds, comparing 3G
and 4G with current and next generation Wi-Fi
............................................................... 35
Figure 39. The importance of Wi-Fi for mobile video
consumption............................................. 36
Figure 40. US video via mobile handset users, 2009-
2015........................................................ 37
Figure 41. US video traffic via mobile handsets,
2009-2015................................................ 38
Figure 42. 802.11g and 802.11n compared......... 39
Figure 43. 802.11n enabled smartphones currently
certified by the Wi-Fi Alliance ..................... 40
Figure 44. 801.11n enabled Wi-Fi smartphone roll
out, 2010 and 2014................................... 40
Figure 45. Age distribution of Wi-Fi users ........... 41
Figure 46. Occupations of Wi-Fi users ................ 41
Figure 47. Smartphone 3G and Wi-Fi traffic by
operating system, 4th quarter 2009 ............. 43
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Introduction

Overview
The total number of Wi-Fi enabled cellular handset models that entered the market in 2009 was two
and a half times greater than in 2008, and we forecast that shipments in the US will grow to 140m in
2015. This phenomenal growth demonstrates it is vital that all mobile device, component, content and
service organizations thoroughly understand current and future trends around the Wi-Fi enabled
handset market.

This 47 page study is an investigation of the Wi-Fi enabled mobile phone handset market in the
United States, up to 2015. Providing forecasts throughout, it focuses on drivers to take-up,
opportunities, challenges, and behavior.

Questions this report answers

 How large is the US market for Wi-Fi enabled handsets up to 2015?
 What will Wi-Fi enabled mobile phone and smartphone shipments be in the US, up to 2015?
 What will Wi-Fi enabled mobile phone and smartphone penetration be in the US, up to 2015?
 What will the Wi-Fi attach rates be in feature phones and smartphones, up to 2015?
 What roles will Wi-Fi hotspots take, and what will Wi-Fi hotspot connections be up to 2015?
 Why are Wi-Fi enabled handsets important for carriers and consumers?
 When will 802.11n become dominant over 802.11g and 802.11a/g? Why is 802.11n important?
 What are the major drivers of this market, and what are the major challenges?
 What are the usage behaviors and demographic characteristics of Wi-Fi enabled handset users?
 How many Wi-Fi enabled handsets have entered the market by year, including the 802.11n
variety? Who are the major players in involved in Wi-Fi enabled mobile phone handsets?

Who Needs This Report?

 Wi-Fi and VoIP semiconductor vendors
 Enterprise Wi-Fi handset OEMs, ODMs, and vendors
 SOHO/consumer Wi-Fi handset OEMs, ODMs, and vendors
 Cellular handset vendors
 VoIP service providers
 Enterprise networking equipment vendors
 SOHO/consumer networking vendors
 UMA, SIP, IMS vendors
 Broadband service providers
 Landline telecommunications providers
 Mobile operators

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 Wi-Fi hotspot operators and aggregators

Notes
From hereon, ‘handsets’ refer to feature phones and smartphones collectively. Unless explicitly
identified, these are ‘dual mode’ i.e. cellular and Wi-Fi handsets. ‘Smartphones’ refer to devices that
run identifiable operating systems, such as iPhone, RIM, Android, Windows and Symbian, and which
have a variety of functions converged onto them. ‘Feature phones’ refer to feature phones i.e. mobile
handsets not running identifiable operating systems and are not converged devices.

Methodology

Overview
The report draws from primary and analysis of secondary research. Sources are identified where
secondary data has been employed. Forecasts have been developed using a variety of statistical
methods and models and where possible have been compared with forecasts from other
organizations. 2009 and prior base data are from published primary data. Selected factors for future
trends are listed below. Some forecasts were iterative in the sense that each forecast helped to inform
other forecasts. This helped to ensure rigor in that constant cross referencing was undertaken
between variables and between forecasts.

Selected variables used to create forecasts

Following variables include data from previous years

 Device renewals vs first owners

 Smartphone and feature phone penetration forecasts
 3G, 4G and Wi-Fi handset device penetration, roll out, and coverage
 Handset manufacturers’ growth forecasts
 Wi-Fi household growth
 Public Wi-Fi coverage
 Mobile internet and Wi-Fi costs, speed, content, and reliability
 Mobile internet users via feature phones and smartphones to 2015
 Mobile Wi-Fi and mobile internet usage, including frequency of usage and types of services and
content accessed
 Demographics and demographic changes
 Consumer typologies
 Household typologies
 Economic growth and consumer expenditure on new technologies

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About Coda Research Consultancy

Employing highly structured data collection and analysis, we at Coda Research Consultancy specialize
in understanding and forecasting future trends, roles and impacts of new technologies, services and
media upon people, organizations and businesses.

We undertake two types of projects each year: ad-hoc projects for individual research partners in the
UK and overseas, and more widely scoped projects that are available to anyone in the forms of
reports and optional presentations.

Coda Research Consultancy is led by Dr Steve Smith, an acknowledged research specialist with
thirteen years' research and consulting experience around new media and new technologies.

To find out more, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or contact us below:

European office
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England
Tel: +44(0)7779 610004
Email: steve.smith@codarc.co.uk

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