Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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At the last, the portfolio was constructed with higher returns than
index returns with systematic risk of 1
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THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
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Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Company Analysis
Economic Analysis
The level of economic activity has an impact on investment in many ways. If the economy
grows rapidly, the industry can also be expected to show rapid growth and vice-versa. When the
level of economic activity is low, stock prices are low, and when the level of economic activity
is high, stock prices are high reflecting the prosperous outlook for sales and profits of the firms.
The analysis of macro economic environment is essential to understand the behaviour of the
stock prices. The commonly analyzed macro economic factors are as follows:
Gross Domestic Product: GDP indicates the rate of growth of the economy. GDP
represents the aggregate value of the goods and services produced in the economy. GDP
consists of personal consumption expenditure, gross private domestic investment and
government expenditure on goods and services and net export of goods and services.
The growth rate of economy points out the prospects for the industrial sector and return
investors can expect from investment in shares. The higher growth rate is more
favourable to the stock market.
Savings and investment: It is obvious that growth requires investment which in turn
requires substantial amount of domestic savings. Stock market is a channel through
which the savings of the investors are made available to corporate bodies. Savings are
distributed over various assets like equity shares, deposits,
mutual fund units, real estate and bullion. The saving and investment patterns of the public
affect the stock to a great extent.
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Interest rates: The interest rate affects the cost of financing to the firms. A decrease in
interest rate implies lower cost of finance for firms and more profitability. More money
is available at a lower interest rate for the brokers who are doing business with
borrowed money. Availability of cheap fund, encourages speculation and rise in price of
shares.
Budget: The budget draft provides an elaborate account of the government revenues
and expenditures. A deficit budget may lead to high rate of inflation and adversely affect
the cost of production. Surplus budget may result in deflation. Hence, balanced budget
is highly favorable to the stock market.
The tax structure: Concessions and incentives given to a certain industry encourages
investment in that particular industry. Tax reliefs given to savings encourage savings.
The type of tax exemption has an impact on the profitability of the industries.
The Balance of payment: The balance of payment is the record of a countrys money
receipts from and payments abroad. The difference between receipts and payments may
be surplus or deficit. BOP is the measure of the strength of rupee on external account. If
the deficit increases, the rupee may depreciate against other currencies, thereby,
affecting the cost of imports. The volatility of the foreign exchange rate affects the
investment of the foreign institutional investors in the Indian Stock Market. A favorable
balance of payment renders a positive effect on the stock market.
Demographic factors: The demographic data provides details about the population by
age, occupation, literacy and geographic location. This is needed to forecast the demand
for the consumer goods. The population by age indicates the availability of able work
force. Population, by providing labour and demand for products, affects the industry and
stock market.
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In the company analysis the investor assimilates the several bit of information related to the
company and evaluates the present and future value of stock. The risk and return associated
with the purchase of the stock is analyzed to take better investment decision.
The present and future are affected by a number of factors. They are:-
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Factors
Share values
Competitive edge
Earnings
P/E ratio
Capital structure
Economic condition
Management
Operating efficiency
Financial performance
Future price
Present price
The competitive edge of the company:- The competitive edge of the company can be studied
with the help of: The market share
The growth of annual sales
The stability of annual sales
The market shares:- The market share of the annual sales helps to determine a companys
relative competitive position within the industry. If the market share is high the company would
be able to meet the competition successfully.
Growth of sales:- The company would be the leading company, but if the growth of sales is
comparatively lower than another company, it indicates the possibility of the company losing
the leadership. The rapid growth in sales would keep the shareholder in a better position than
one with a stagnant rapid growth.
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1
1
MP C
r
1 r n
Types of Duration
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t *c
(1 i)
t 1
Mac Dur
n*M
(1 i ) n
1
1 1 r n
MP C
r
1 r
Mac
t *c
n*M
(1 i ) n
1
(1 i ) n
M
i
(1 i ) n
(1 i )
t 1
Dur
C*
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Modified
Duraton
macaulaydurartion
YTM
1
No of
Cpn Periods
Nifty is a price index and hence reflects the returns one would earn if investment is made in the inde
portfolio. However, a price index does not consider the returns arising from dividend receipts. Onl
capital gains arising due to price movements of constituent stocks are indicated in a price index
Therefore, to get a true picture of returns, the dividends received from the constituent stocks also need t
be factored in the index values. Such an index, which includes the dividends received, is called the Tota
Returns Index.
Total Returns Index reflects the returns on the index arising from (a) constituent stock price movement
and (b) dividend receipts from constituent index stocks.
Methodology for Total Returns Index (TR) is as follows:
The following information is a prerequisite for calculation of TR Index:
1. Price Index close
2. Price Index returns
3. Dividend payouts in Rupees
4. Index Base capitalisation on ex-dividend date
Dividend payouts as they occur are indexed on ex-date.
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DividendPayout (rs )
1000
BaseCapofindex(rs )
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To analyze the performance of the shares of cos in the steel and cement sector in
Indian stock market in light of the growth in infrastructure in India.
Research Methodology
Type of research
The study is a descriptive research, describing the construction of portfolios.
Tools for data collection:
The study involves collection of data from secondary sources and collected from internet,
magazines, news paper, and research reports.
Sampling:
Type of sampling: Non-probabilistic judgment sampling.
Sample size: Four stocks from the steel sector and six stocks from the cement sector; 10
companys Corporate debt; ten Government securities; and 364 day-T-bills
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As the scope is defined by the researcher, it restricts the number of variables which
influence the industry.
Sales growth were assumed on the basis of change in sales of yr 2007 and 2006
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EIC ANALYSIS
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Despite several problems facing the Indian economy many economists point to potential
strengths of the Indian economy which could enable it to continue to benefit from high levels of
economic growth in the future.
1. Demographics of India are favourable.
India still has a positive birth rate meaning that the size of the workforce will continue to
grow for the foreseeable future. (unlike India) A rising workforce helps to increase saving
and investment. It also enables increased productivity.
2. There is much scope for increases in efficiency.
The infrastructure of India is so bad in places that even moderate improvements could lead
to significant improvements in the productive capacity of the economy.
3. India is well placed to benefit from globalization and outsourcing.
A legacy of the British Empire is that India has one of the largest English speaking
populations in the world. For labour intensive industries like call centres India is an obvious
target for outsourcing. This is an economic development likely to continue in the future.
4. Positive Growth Forecasts
A recent study from Goldman Sachs, forecast that India could growth at a sustainable rate of
8% growth until 2020.However it is worth noting that this assumed Indian would make
several supply side policies such as labour market deregulation and improvements in
education and training.
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The economy of India, when measured in USD exchange-rate terms, is the tenth largest in the
world, with a GDP of US $1.50 trillion (2008). It is the third largest in terms of purchasing
power parity. India is the second fastest growing major economy in the world, with a GDP
growth rate of 9.4% for the fiscal year 20062007. However, India's huge population has a per
capita income of $4,542 at PPP and $1,089 in nominal terms (revised 2007 estimate). The
World Bank classifies India as a low-income economy.
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Other
sectors
like
manufacturing,
pharmaceuticals,
biotechnology,
Public expenditure
India's public expenditure is classified as development expenditure, comprising central plan
expenditure and central assistance and non-development expenditures; these categories can
each be divided into capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. Central plan expenditure is
allocated to development schemes outlined in the plans of the central government and public
sector undertakings; central assistance refers to financial assistance and developmental loans
given for plans of the state governments and union territories. Non-development capital
expenditure comprises capital defense expenditure, loans to public enterprises, states and union
territories and foreign governments, while non-development revenue expenditure comprises
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Headquarters of India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, in Mumbai (It's the tall
building in the background. The building in the foreground is the Asiatic Library)
India's non-development revenue expenditure has increased nearly fivefold in 200304 since
199091 and more than tenfold since 19851986. Interest payments are the single largest item
of expenditure and accounted for more than 40% of the total non development expenditure in
the 200304 budget. Defence expenditure increased fourfold during the same period and has
been increasing due to growing tensions in the region, the expensive dispute with Pakistan over
Jammu and Kashmir and an effort to modernise the military. Administrative expenses are
compounded by a large salary and pension bill, which rises periodically due to revisions in
wages, dearness allowance etc. subsidies on food, fertilizers, education and petroleum and other
merit and non-merit subsidies account are not only continuously rising, especially because of
rising crude oil and food prices, but are also harder to rein in, because of political compulsions.
Public receipts
India has a three-tier tax structure, wherein the constitution empowers the union government to
levy income tax, tax on capital transactions (wealth tax, inheritance tax), sales tax, service tax,
customs and excise duties and the state governments to levy sales tax on intrastate sale of
goods, tax on entertainment and professions, excise duties on manufacture of alcohol, stamp
duties on transfer of property and collect land revenue (levy on land owned). The local
governments are empowered by the state government to levy property tax, Octroi and charge
users for public utilities like water supply, sewage etc. More than half of the revenues of the
union and state governments come from taxes, of which half come from Indirect taxes. More
than a quarter of the union government's tax revenues is shared with the state governments.
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Reducing the rates of individual and corporate income taxes, excises, customs and making it
more progressive
21 of the 29 states introduced Value added tax (VAT) on April 1, 2005 to replace the
complex and multiple sales tax system.
The non-tax revenues of the central government come from fiscal services, interest receipts,
public sector dividends, etc., while the non-tax revenues of the States are grants from the central
government, interest receipts, dividends and income from general, economic and social
services.
General budget
The Finance minister of India presents the annual union budget in the Parliament on the last
working day of February. The budget has to be passed by the Lok Sabha before it can come into
effect on April 1, the start of India's fiscal year. The Union budget is preceded by an economic
survey which outlines the broad direction of the budget and the economic performance of the
country for the outgoing financial year. This economic survey involves all the various NGOs,
women organizations, business people, old people associations etc.
Labour
The large population puts further pressure on infrastructure and social services. A positive
factor has been the large working-age population, which forms 45.33% of the population and is
expected to increase substantially, because of the decreasing dependency ratio. The national
labour market has been tightly regulated by successive governments ever since the Workmen's
Compensation Act was passed in 1923.
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Mumbai Airport
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Cyber Greens Office Complex. Containing offices like ABN Amro, Microsoft.
The RBI, the country's central bank was established on 1 April 1935. It serves as the nation's
monetary authority, regulator and supervisor of the financial system, manager of exchange
control and as an issuer of currency. The RBI is governed by a central board, headed by a
governor who is appointed by the Central government of India.
Cuffe Parade is an important business district in Mumbai, home to the World Trade Center as
well as other important financial institutions
The BSE Sensex or the BSE Sensitive Index is a value-weighted index composed of 30
companies with April 1979 as the base year (100). These companies have the largest and most
actively traded stocks and are representative of various sectors, on the Exchange. They account
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Composition of India's total production (million tonnes) of foodgrains and commercial crops, in
200304. India ranks second worldwide in farm output. Agriculture and allied sectors like
forestry, logging and fishing accounted for 18.6% of the GDP in 2005, employed 60% of the
total workforce[4] and despite a steady decline of its share in the GDP, is still the largest
economic sector and plays a significant role in the overall socio-economic development of
India. Yields per unit area of all crops have grown since 1950, due to the special emphasis
placed on agriculture in the five-year plans and steady improvements in irrigation, technology,
application of modern agricultural practices and provision of agricultural credit and subsidies
since Green revolution in India. However, international comparisons reveal that the average
yield in India is generally 30% to 50% of the highest average yield in the world.
The low productivity in India is a result of the following factors:
The average size of land holdings is very small (less than 20,000 m) and is subject to
fragmentation, due to land ceiling acts and in some cases, family disputes. Such small
holdings are often over-manned, resulting in disguised unemployment and low productivity
of labour.
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World
Rank
193
198
219
303
Logo
Industry
Reliance
Industries
Oil and Natural
Operations
Oil & Gas
Gas Corporation
State Bank of
Operations
India
Indian Oil
Banking
Oil & Gas
$)
$)
Market
Value
(billion
$)
26.07
2.79
30.67
89.29
18.90
4.11
33.79
54.11
15.77
1.47 188.56
33.29
42.68
1.82
25.39
16.36
9.84
7.84
0.64
1.60
91.07
20.34
29.85
41.57
Corporation
374 ICICI Bank
411 NTPC
Steel Authority
647
of India Limited
Operations
Banking
Utilities
Materials
7.88
1.45
8.05
26.37
Materials
5.83
0.97
11.48
14.63
4.26
0.94
6.61
39.16
3.13
0.65
13.08
29.63
Telecommunications
Reliance
Services
Telecommunications
Communications
Services
Services
India is fifteenth in services output. It provides employment to 23% of work force, and it is
growing fast, growth rate 7.5% in 19912000 up from 4.5% in 195180. It has the largest share
in the GDP, accounting for 53.8% in 2005 up from 15% in 1950. Business services (information
technology, information technology enabled services, business process outsourcing) are among
the fastest growing sectors contributing to one third of the total output of services in 2000. The
growth in the IT sector is attributed to increased specialisation, availability of a large pool of
low cost, but highly skilled, educated and fluent English-speaking workers. On the supply side
and on the demand side, increased demand from foreign consumers interested in India's service
exports or those looking to outsource their operations. India's IT industry, despite contributing
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The Indian money market is classified into: the organised sector (comprising private, public and
foreign owned commercial banks and cooperative banks, together known as scheduled banks);
and the unorganised sector (comprising individual or family owned indigenous bankers or
money lenders and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs)). The unorganised sector and
microcredit are still preferred over traditional banks in rural and sub-urban areas, especially for
non-productive purposes, like ceremonies and short duration loans.
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi nationalised 14 banks in 1969, followed by six others in 1980,
and made it mandatory for banks to provide 40% of their net credit to priority sectors like
agriculture, small-scale industry, retail trade, small businesses, etc. to ensure that the banks
fulfill their social and developmental goals. Since then, the number of bank branches has
increased from 10,120 in 1969 to 98,910 in 2003 and the population covered by a branch
decreased from 63,800 to 15,000 during the same period. The total deposits increased 32.6
times between 1971 to 1991 compared to 7 times between 1951 to 1971. Despite an increase of
rural branches, from 1,860 or 22% of the total number of branches in 1969 to 32,270 or 48%,
only 32,270 out of 5 lakh (500,000) villages are covered by a scheduled bank.
Since liberalisation, the government has approved significant banking reforms. While some of
these relate to nationalised banks (like encouraging mergers, reducing government interference
and increasing profitability and competitiveness), other reforms have opened up the banking
and insurance sectors to private and foreign players.
Socio-economic characteristics
Poverty
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India is a net importer: Per the CIA factbook in 2007, imports were $224bn and exports $140bn.
India's reliance on external assistance and commercial borrowings has decreased since 1991
92, and since 200203, it has gradually been repaying these debts. Declining interest rates and
reduced borrowings decreased India's debt service ratio to 4.5% in 2007. In India, External
Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) are being permitted by the Government for providing an
additional source of funds to Indian corporates. The Ministry of Finance monitors and regulates
these borrowings (ECBs) through ECB policy guidelines.
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Despite the fact that Indian cement industry has clocked a production of more than 100 m
tonnes for the second year in succession, the per capita consumption of 110 kgs compares
poorly with the world average of 260 kgs. This, more than anything underlines the
tremendous scope for growth in the Indian cement industry in the long term.
Cement, being a bulk commodity, is a freight intensive industry and transporting cement
over long distances can prove to be uneconomical. This has resulted in cement being
largely a regional play with the industry divided into five main regions viz. north, south,
west, east and the central region. While the southern region is excess is capacity owing to
the availability of limestone, the western and northern region are the most lucrative
markets. Therefore, players like Grasim, L&T and Gujarat Ambuja enjoy high price
realisations compared to the all India average.
Although the government has reduced the import duty on cement, imports do not pose a
threat since prices of cement in India are lower than those prevailing in the international
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Demand : Housing sector acts as the principal growth driver for cement. However, in
recent times, industrial and infrastructure sector have also emerged as demand drivers
for cement.
Barriers to entry: High capital costs and long gestation periods. Access to limestone
reserves (principal raw material for the manufacture of cement) also acts as a significant
entry barrier.
Competition:Due to large number of players in the industry and very little brand
differentiation to speak of, the competition is intense with players resorting to frequent
price cuts in order to gain market share.
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using
the
hot
exhaust
gases
from
the
kiln
itself.
3. Kiln
The mixture of raw materials is fed into the upper end of a rotating, cylindrical kiln, which
achieves temperatures in excess of 1000C. It passes through at a rate controlled by the slope
and rotational speed of the kiln. Chemical reaction inside the kiln leads to the fusion of the raw
materials to produce clinker. Traditionally kiln fuels have been powdered coal or natural gas,
but increasingly alternative fuels are being used. These include materials such as scrap tyres,
processed sewage sludge and packaging waste.
4. Cooling/finish grinding
Clinker is discharged from the lower end of the kiln and transferred to various types of coolers.
Total production
The cement industry comprises of 125 large cement plants with an installed capacity of 148.28
million tonnes and more than 300 mini cement plants with an estimated capacity of 11.10
million tonnes per annum. The Cement Corporation of India, which is a Central Public Sector
Undertaking, has 10 units. There are 10 large cement plants owned by various State
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Ltd.
The Planning Commission for the formulation of X Five Year Plan constituted a 'Working
Group on Cement Industry' for the development of cement industry. The Working Group has
identified following thrust areas for improving demand for cement;
i.
ii.
iii.
Further, in order to improve global competitiveness of the Indian Cement Industry, the
Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion commissioned a study on the global
competitiveness of the Indian Industry through an organization of international repute, viz.
KPMG Consultancy Pvt. Ltd. The report submitted by the organization has made several
recommendations for making the Indian Cement Industry more competitive in the international
market.
The
recommendations
are
under
consideration.
Cement industry has been decontrolled from price and distribution on 1st March 1989 and delicensed on 25th July 1991. However, the performance of the industry and prices of cement are
monitored regularly. Being a key infrastructure industry, the constraints faced by the industry
are reviewed in the Infrastructure Coordination Committee meetings held in the Cabinet
Secretariat under the Chairmanship of Secretary (Coordination). The Committee on
Infrastructure also reviews its performance.
Technological change
Continuous technological upgrading and assimilation of latest technology has been going on in
the cement industry. Presently 93 per cent of the total capacity in the industry is based on
modern and environment-friendly dry process technology and only 7 per cent of the capacity is
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The acquisition of L&T's cement division by Grasim has changed the landscape of the
entire cement industry and in one fell swoop has catapulted Grasim to the leadership
position. This is a healthy sign for the industry, as this would result in consolidation and
would give significant pricing power to the bigger players. With consolidation taking
place at the lower end also, the unviable units will be forced to shut down thus
benefiting the long-term interests of the industry.
With no major capacity expansion in the pipeline, the demand supply level is expected
to achieve parity on a macro level by FY08 and this will help in the improvement of
prices. However, since the level of demand supply mismatch is higher in the southern
region, it will take longer to achieve demand supply parity. We expect cement price to
increase by around 6% in FY08 owing to fundamental reasons.
The industry worked at estimated 84% capacity in FY08 and given the current growth
rates and also assuming no major capacity expansion in the near future, the capacity
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INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
The steel industry worldwide produces over 750 mn tonnes of crude steel each year. The largest
steel-producing countries are China, Japan and the United States. The integrated steel plants
(ISPs) - Steel Authority of India (SAIL), Tata Steel (TISCO) and Rashtriya Ispat Nigam (RINL)
dominate the Indian steel market. The major ISPs in India are SAIL, TISCO and RINL. They
account for almost 75% of the steel production. SAIL is the 11th largest producer of steel in the
world while TISCO ranks 59th. TISCO is also one of the lowest cost producer of steel in the
world.
Steel plants can be classified into integrated steel plant (ISP), mini steel plants (MSP) and rerolling plants. There are nine integrated steel plants operating in India. There are more than
2,500 MSPs spread across the country. The re-rolling plants process the semi-finished and
intermediate products into finished products. With the liberalization of the steel sector new
private companies have started using of state of the art technology like COREX and CONARC
for production of liquid steel and value added steel respectively. Mini steel producers in India
employ either Electric Arc Furnace [EAF] or Induction Furnace [IF] for steel production.
The steel industry with an estimated turnover of Rs 75,819 crores in the year-end March 2004
comprises of two distinct producer groups.
Major producers: Also known as Integrated Steel Producers (ISPs), this group includes large
steel producers with high levels of backward integration. Steel Authority of India Limited
(SAIL), Tata Steel, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL), Jindal Vijayanagar Steel Limited
(JVSL), Essar Steel and Ispat Industries form this group. SAIL, TISCO and RINL produce steel
using the blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace (BF/BOF) route that uses iron ore, coal/coke as the
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Small producers using scrap-sponge iron-pig iron combination produce steel ingots (for
long products) using Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) or Induction Arc Furnace (IAF) route
The Major producers are strategic in nature and account for most of the mild steel production
in the country. The group produces most of the flat steel products in the country including Hot
Rolled, Cold Rolled and Galvanized steel. The majors also produce a small proportion of Long
products and other special steel being produced in the country. While the Other producers
account for a majority of long products being produced in the country and some of the value
added flat steel products like cold rolled steel and galvanized steel.
Types of products
Iron ore National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC), Kudremukh Iron Ore Co
(KIOCL) and Sesa Goa (Sesa) are the major merchant producers of iron ore. SAIL and Tata
Steel have their captive iron ore mines.
Pig Iron KIOCL, Sesa Goa and Usha Ispat. Apart from them there are many mini blast
furnace (MBF) pig iron producers and even integrated steel plants like SAIL and RINL
produce a significant amount of pig iron.
Sponge Iron Essar Steel, Ispat Industries, Vikram Ispat (a division of Grasim) are the
major producers of gas based sponge iron.
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Long products RINL, SAIL and Tata Steel are the major producers of long products like
rods, pipes, bars, wires etc.
Alloy Steel products - Mukand, Mahindra Ugine (Musco) and Kalyani Carpenter are some
of the largest producers of alloy steel in the country, which is primarily used, in automotive
and engineering applications.
PROCESS OF PRODUCTION
Basic Oxygen Furnace and Electric Arc Furnace: Players in the steel industry can be
classified either as integrated steel plants (ISPs) or secondary producers / mini-steel mills,
based on their process of manufacture. The ISPs use the blast furnace (BF) to reduce iron
ore to form hot metal, which is then converted into steel in a basic oxygen furnace (BOF).
The basic open hearth (BOH) was in use before the advent of the BOF and has gradually
been phased out because of its inefficiency with respect to furnace productivity, energy and
refractory consumption. The BOF process is not very power intensive as the entire power
requirement is met through generation within the process itself. The secondary producers,
unlike the ISPs, melt the steel scrap / pellets using electricity in the power intensive electric
arc furnaces (EAFs) / induction furnaces (IFs).
Rolling Mills
The re-rollers vary in size, product mix and technology. Most of these mills are equipped
with re-heating furnaces to roll long products, hoops and strips from billets / ingots or from
re-rollable scrap. ISPs and some large plants using the EAF route have set up captive rolling
mills, after the restrictions on setting up downstream production facilities were removed.
With expectations of a shift in demand tow ards high value-added products, larger players
like TISCO, SAIL and Essar are expected to benefit more than the stand-alone rolling mills
because of their cost advantage.
Raw Materials
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Essar Steel
JISCO
Saw Pipes
Mukand Ltd
NMDC
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Impact on sector
Reduction in customs duty on scrap will help steel manufacturers that use the electric arc
furnace route for steel manufacturing lower their costs. On the other hand, it will be a negative
for manufacturers that use the blast furnace route. If auto manufacturers pass on the reduced
excise benefits in the form of lower prices, it will help spur demand for automobiles, which in
turn will drive steel demand.
While reduction in customs duty on aluminium metal scrap is positive for certain secondary
aluminium manufacturers, it is negative for ingot manufacturers like Nalco and Hindalco.
Increased investments in T&D will help boost demand for aluminium as the electrical sector is
the major consumer of aluminium in the country.
Impact on companies
Reduction in excise duties on automobiles will help companies (such as Tata Steel) that supply
steel to auto makers. Players that supply steel to the power equipment companies like SAIL and
JSW Steel will benefit from increased investments in the power sector.
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KEY POINTS
Supply
With trade barriers having been lowered over the years, imports play
an important role in the domestic markets.
Demand
Barriers to entry
Bargaining power of The government's move on railway freight costs and grid power costs
suppliers
Bargaining power of High, presence of a large number of suppliers and access to global
customers
markets.
Competition
PROSPECTS
After an impressive 7% growth in global steel production and a 7.3% rise in steel
consumption in 2007, this trend is likely to continue well into 2008 with global
production and consumption both estimated to increase by about 6%. This would take
the total world steel consumption to over 900 MTPA from the current 860 MTPA. While
the current world steel capacity is in the vicinity of about a 1,050 MTPA, the year 2008
is likely to witness the global steel production crossing the 1-bn ton mark for the first
time
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The steel sector continues to face threat from cheap imports. With the customs duties on
various steel imports already having been reduced in the region of 15%-20%, import
pressures could consequently lead to pressure on margins of the domestic companies
Steel companies are however, expected to continue to perform well in FY08 largely due
to the continuation in infrastructure spending (including housing). Auto sector has also
been showing strong growth, which could help in driving demand for value added steel
products like CR (cold roll) steel. Exports remain a lucrative avenue for domestic steel.
The Steel Industry looks strong with good potential exports and backing higher domestic
demand from various user industries. This is backed by the robust economic growth in India.
Companies are expanding their capacities visualizing the extent of demand they may have to
meet locally and globally in the years to come. Indian companies are also working to ensure that
the basic raw materials are available adequately.
Companies with lower financial risk; higher operational efficiency and high utilization and cost
reduction will perform better than the others. Though fundamentally things look good, the price
of steel is expected to increase. With the supply constraints in raw materials expected to further
increase, reduction in the rate of increase in prices of steel and other value added products,
companies have to improve their productivity and become global in terms of their capacity,
productivity and have brand strategies for various value added products to reduce the cyclical
nature of this business.
Companies, which have high vertical integration, high operating efficiency, low financial
leverage, thrust on value added products with brand will have lesser negative impact on
their performance considering the cyclical nature of this industry.
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SALES
SALES GROWTH
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN
PAT
PAT GROWTH
WORKING CAPITAL TO
SALES
ROCE
RONW
DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO
MKT CAP
MKT CAP / SALES
ENTERPRISE VALUE
P/E RATIO
PRICE/BOOK VALUE RATIO
31/03/2005
12
31/03/2006
12
31/03/2007
12
Rs m
%
%
Rs m
%
235,527
6.3
-9,958
-
296,152
25.7
15.2
7,206
-175.6
369,811
24.9
23.6
43,571
378.5
7.0
3.7
-1.3
%
%
x
Rs m
x
Rs m
X
x
4.9
-19.8
3.1
21,020
0.4
235,661
-6.3
1.3
12.3
13.6
2.6
28,165
0.4
253,113
11.7
1.6
27.4
46.8
1.1
83,015
1.1
518,551
5.7
2.7
C O M PAN Y AN A LYS I S
ACC CEMENTS LTD
ACC Limited is Indias foremost manufacturer of cement and ready mix concrete with a
countrywide network of factories and marketing offices.Established in 1936, ACC has been a
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6.4%
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
ACC CEMENTS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
20.44
29.16
76.67
1.74
2.99
28.21
23.72
0.07
2006
21.16
33.64
65.78
1.65
2.83
23.43
24.73
0.24
2005
9.59
21.58
21.19
1.35
3.16
7.44
12.23
0.88
2004
5.93
11.61
11.3
1.32
3.17
4.7
7.87
0.98
2003
3.52
4.48
6.08
1.17
3.1
2.86
6.05
1.3
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Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- We can see that Acc cements has been consistently reducing the portion of debt
from year on year which tells that, company is focused on the protection of its creditors.
Interest Coverage As we can see that, firms interest coverage capacity has gone up tells that
the firm can easily meet its current burden even if PBIT suffer a considerable decline.
Turnover Ratios :
Inventory T O Ratio As we can see, the firms inventory portion has been quite consistant
over the years although It had declined little in year 2006 and 2007. This shows that company
has been quite efficient in converting its inventory into sales quite efficiently.
FATO As we can see, the portion of fixed assets have almost remained unchanged, we can
tell that the firm ahs been using assets quite conservatively but they have been in line with the
firms requirements.
Profitability Ratios :
NPM From the trend, we can see that portion of net profit has been increasing quite
consistently over year by year. It shows that company has been performing quite efficiently and
earnings have been distributed to shareholders very well.
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The Company's plants are well spread with three in Tamilnadu and four in Andhra
Pradesh which cater to all major markets in South India and Maharashtra.
The Company is the market leader with a market share of 28% in the South. It aims to
achieve a 35% market share in the near future. The Company has access to huge
limestone resources and plans to expand capacity by de-bottlenecking and optimisation
of existing plants as well as by acquisitions.
The Company has a strong distribution network with over 10,000 stockists of whom
25% are dedicated.
The Company has well established brands- Sankar Super Power, Coromandel Super
Power and Raasi Super Power.
PEFORMANCE EVALUATION
CURRENT PERFORMANCE
The country witnessed further growth in demand during April and May 2007 with the domestic
consumption going up by 10% over and above the double digit growth registered in the
previous year. South was even better with a growth of 12.4% in the first two months of this
year.
The clinker production of company during the first quarter was at 17.33 lakh tonnes (15.01 lakh
tonnes), the cement production at 22.90 lakh tonnes (19.04 lakh tonnes) and cement sales at
23.06 lakh tonnes (18.52 lakh tonnes). As earlier mentioned, the previous period figures are not
strictly comparable as Visaka Cement Industry Ltd was merged with company with effect from
1s July 2006. Company has achieved a gross turnover of Rs.841 Crores (Rs.567 Crores) and a
net profit before tax of Rs.215 Crores (unaudited) (Rs.113 Crores). With the continued
buoyancy in demand and further improvement in prices, the year 2007-08 could be a record
year for company in terms of volume and profitability.
EXPANSION/MODERNISATION
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INDIA
CEMENTS
1
2
3
4
5
NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover
2007
21.2
34.91
21.73
1.05
1.3
2006
2.92
4.37
2.38
1.23
0.97
2005
0.39
-19.97
0.32
0.9
0.75
2004
-9.39
-34.17
-6.87
0.75
0.67
2003
-22.52
-51.28
-13.84
0.63
0.56
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0.76
3.75
5.88
0.17
-4.87
4.58
Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- We can see that India cements has reduced the portion of the debt in yr 2006-07
drastically compared to year 200-2005 which tells that company is focused on the protection of
its creditors.
Interest Coverage As we can see at the starting years, company was not doing well to meet
its current obligations from the year 2003-2005. But in the year 2007, firms interest coverage
portion has gone up realy well. So the firm is in better position to cover its obligations in future
as well.
Turnover Ratios :
Inventory T O Ratio As we can see, the firms inventory portion has been quite low over the
years. This shows that company has been little inefficient in converting its inventory into sales
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to
the
parent
company.
Ready Mix Concrete is likely to see substantial growth in the coming years. Recognising the
opportunities that this business will offer, UltraTech has commenced setting up of Ready Mix
Concrete
plants
at
various
places
in
the
country.
UltraTech's subsidiaries are: Dakshin Cements Limited and UltraTech Ceylinco (Private)
Limited
PEFORMANCE EVALUATION
The year under review witnessed improved performance, driven by higher market realisation,
enhanced capacity utilisation and greater volumes.
Average realisation improved by 29% from Rs.2,122 per MT in FY06 to Rs.2,735 per MT in
FY07. Cement production was 14.64 MMT as compared to 13.33 MMT in the previous year.
Effective capacity utilisation (cement produced + clinker sold) was 101% compared to 89 %
during the previous year. Aggregate sales volume at 17.67 MMT (15.55 MMT) was higher by
13.63%. Domestic sales volume which constituted around 80 % of the aggregate sales volume
rose from 12.97 MMT in FY06 to 14.21 MMT in FY07, while aggregate exports grew from
2.58 MMT in FY06 to 3.46 MMT in FY07.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
The Company is setting up captive power plants at its Units in Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh and
Gujarat. The power plant in Andhra Pradesh will be commissioned in the last quarter of FY08
and the one in Chattisgarh in the first quarter of FY09. The power plant in Gujarat will be
commissioned in a phased manner, commencing from the last quarter of FY08 and ending in
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover
Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
15.75
44.13
62.84
1.53
2006
6.91
20.79
18.47
1.23
2005
0.1
7.45
0.22
1.03
2004
1.69
1.18
3.12
0.82
2003
0
0
0
0
5.05
15.99
24.39
0.89
4.22
6.03
10.47
1.4
3.15
3.07
5.57
1.44
3.04
2.71
6.36
1.45
0
0
0
0
Leverage Ratios :
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Profitability Ratios :
NPM From the trend, we can see that portion of net profit has been increased in last 3 years.
It shows that company has been performing quite efficiently in last 3 year and earnings have
been distributed to shareholders very well.
GPM From the table we can see that company has been very efficient in using its production
capacity. Its portion of gross profit has been increasing considerable over the years, which is
also good sign for the company in the future.
ROE From the table, we can see that over the years, companys return on equity have been
increasing quite consistantly, which shows that profits have been made by firm consistently on
the equity funds invested.
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
MANGALAM CEMENTS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
20.9
33.7
17.01
1.21
2.01
10.76
27.02
0.48
2006
15.97
63.8
24.44
3.49
4.61
12.37
21.29
0.33
2005
5.49
37.48
5.94
2.83
5.06
3.42
7.57
2.53
2004
5.59
131.75
8.4
2.38
6.27
3.04
9.51
10.27
2003
-26.45
0
-30.31
1.66
4.4
-0.09
-8.35
0
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Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- In the 1st 3 yrs, company doesnt have good track record of debt. But, we can see
that company has been consistently reducing the portion of debt in coming years which tells
that, company is focused on the protection of its creditors.
Interest Coverage As we can see that, firms interest coverage capacity has gone quite well
in year 2006-07, which tells that the firm can easily meet its current burden I future even if
PBIT suffer a considerable decline. In previous years, coverage was quite low. It tells that firm
is in position to pay of its interest part quite well.
Turnover Ratios :
Inventory T O Ratio As we can see, the firms inventory portion has been decreasing over the
years. This shows that company has been quite inefficient in converting its inventory into sales
very effectively. Company should concentrate on pushing the sales more often.
FATO As we can see, the portion of fixed assets have decrraesed with marginal improvement
in year 2006 only. Company has been using fixed assets quite conservatively. In the future,
company will have to increase its fixed assets portion to gain more profits.
Profitability Ratios :
NPM Except in yr 2003, we can see that portion of net profit has been increased in
subsequent years. It shows that company has been performing quite efficiently in last 3 years
and earnings have been distributed to shareholders very well.
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NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover
6
7
8
9
Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
25.02
46.66
6.46
2.12
2006
10.83
25.98
2.08
1.61
2005
5.84
11.53
0.86
1.16
2004
-1.54
-3.66
-0.19
0.98
2003
-9.58
-20.9
-1.05
0.78
5.27
50.5
39.02
0
2.69
6.01
21.16
0.42
2.05
3.28
16.1
1.22
1.85
1.98
12.93
1.73
1.57
0.93
6.7
1.87
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Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- In the 1st 4 yrs, company has sufficient portion amount of debt financing. But in
the year company has become totally debt free, which puts further pressure on its equity share
holders and firm cannot take advantage of leveraged position.
Interest Coverage As we can see that, firms interest coverage capacity has gone up really
well in year 2007, which supports zero debt for firm in yr 2007. In previous years, coverage
was quite low. It tells that firm is in position to pay of its interest part quite well if it takes any
debt in the future.
Turnover Ratios :
Inventory T O Ratio As we can see, the firms inventory portion has been increasing over the
years. This shows that company has been quite efficient in converting its inventory into sales
very effectively. Consistancy for the company will be key for the future growth.
FATO As we can see, the portion of fixed assets have been quite low along all the years.
Company has been using fixed assets quite conservatively. In the future, company will have to
increase its fixed assets portion to gain more profits.
Profitability Ratios :
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PEFORMANCE EVALUATION
Dalmia Cements has leveraged additional capacities and generated greater efficiencies to
produce excellent results. Companys additional 2 million MT capacity at Dalmiapuram fully
came on stream in the first quarter of 2006-07. The 27 MW thermal power plant that was
commissioned in 2005-06 provided assured, cost effective electric supply. There were further
improvements in manufacturing efficiencies. New capacity ramp up encountered a few
challenges in the first half of the year but the plant stabilised well in the second half. Our last
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NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
22.77
14.81
53.58
0.78
1.45
5.12
20.34
1.5
2006
14.43
7.78
22.18
0.82
1.25
4.35
10.39
2
2005
6.63
11.14
40.34
0.86
1.23
3.43
9.48
1.88
2004
6.67
4.21
33.16
1.41
1.35
2.34
9.1
1.14
2003
4.98
2.93
26
1.44
1.71
2.18
7.54
1.21
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Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- company has been keeping the debt-equity portion quite well in the last 5 years
except in the year 2006 where is touched its peak. So it tells that company has been using
sufficient amount of debt to take advantage of low interest payment
Interest Coverage As we can see that, firms interest coverage capacity has gone up really
well in last 5 years, which supports debt paying capacity for firm all through the years. It tells
that firm is performing quite well to cover its obligations.
Turnover Ratios :
Inventory T O Ratio As we can see, the firms inventory portion has been quite low over the
years. This shows that company has been quite inefficient in converting its inventory into sales
very effectively. Company will have to increase its sales converting capacity.
FATO As we can see, the portion of fixed assets have been quite low along all the years.
Company has been using fixed assets quite conservatively. In the future, company will have to
increase its fixed assets portion to gain more profits.
Profitability Ratios :
NPM We can see that portion of net profit has been increasing in over the years. It shows that
company has been performing quite very efficiently in all the 5 years and earnings have been
distributed to shareholders very well.
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DEBT RESTRUCTURING
On the restructuring/settlement of debts with the Financial Institutions and Banks, the
Restructuring proposals are under various stages of discussion with the lenders. In accordance
with the restructured terms, the Company has paid off Rs. 70.45 crores during the year towards
past Debt liabilities.
During the year, company has issued Redeemable Preference Shares at par of Rs. 1.29 Crores
against part conversion of its debt to IDBI as per the approval of Members at the last Annual
General Meeting. These Preference Shares will be redeemed with a premium of 11.5%
commencing from Financial year 2016.
Sales
Steel Products Sales during the year under review has seen an improvement of 23% over the
previous year and has reached a figure of Rs.1870.64 crores as against the previous year figure
of Rs. 1526.50 crores. The exports of steel has shown a quantum jump and has almost doubled.
The Export during the year was at Rs.276.19 Crores as against Rs. 127.28 crores recorded
during the previous year.
Engineering Products
The Engineering Products, during the year under review has recorded sales at Rs. 61.41 crores
as compared to the previous year of Rs. 127.87 crores. The Company during the year has
successfully executed jobs for reputed public and private sector companies. The setting up of
Pelletization Plant at Orissa for a client is almost in the completion stages. The Company
continue to support in supply of spares and services to Navy, Coast Guard, Mumbai Port Trust,
GRSE and major Oil and Gas sector companies.
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
LLYODS STEEL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
-3.83
0
-3.55
1.52
2.8
2.08
-3.44
0
2006
-4.48
0
-3.29
1.14
3.08
0.74
-6.31
0
2005
8.7
0
6.35
1.1
3.19
7.54
5.5
0
2004
-0.13
0
-0.05
0.57
1.44
1.88
-10.59
0
2003
-39.25
0
-12.18
0.4
1.09
0
-19.29
0
Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- Company doesnt have any debt portion all over the 5 years. Company has to put
sum amount debt to take advantage of leveraged position in the future.
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Profitability Ratios :
NPM Except in yr 2005, we can see that portion of net profit has been decreased in
subsequent years. It shows that company has not been performing quite efficiently in last 3
years and earnings have not been distributed to shareholders.
GPM Except in the year 2005, company had margin has been in negative which tells that cost
of production has been running quite high for the company. Firm will have to increase its
production efficiency so that operating expenses can be covered efficiently.
ROE From the table, we can see that over the years, companys return on equity has been nil
supporting the fact that company is not earning well all over the year as its been into loss.
Company has to get sum amount debt financing to improve the returns to equity share holders
in the future.
EPS Except in the year 2005, company has failed to get any earnings on the shares supporting
the nil return on equity situation. So the company will have to make use of debt and equity in
the future really well to get good returns on equity.
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
JSW STEELS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
14.98
23.1
77.09
0.84
3.46
6.99
24.56
0.84
2006
14.14
10.88
53.28
0.73
2.22
4.68
18.96
1.07
2005
13
32.25
65.27
1.04
3.52
4.93
32.6
1.43
2004
16.05
12.68
4.09
0.63
2.53
2.57
15.53
4.15
2003
-4.41
42.93
-0.85
0.44
2.13
1.26
5.17
8.59
Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- We can see that company has been consistently reducing the portion of debt from
year on year which tells that, company is focused on the protection of its creditors. Debt equity
portion been quite consistant over the years.
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NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover
5
6
7
8
Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
17.38
35.34
15.02
2.67
2006
13.79
31.45
9.72
2.18
2005
23.19
66.48
16.5
2.23
2004
11.39
50.58
6.08
1.6
2003
-1.73
-23.61
-0.73
1.19
1.58
33.12
4.28
0.24
1.5
15.92
8.12
0.34
1.85
18.45
12.36
0.55
2.64
5.1
-29.63
1.72
2.34
1.73
18.98
5.14
Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- Except in the year 2003 and 2004, we can see that company has been
consistently reducing the portion of debt from year on year which tells that, company is focused
on the protection of its creditors and company is using the amount of debt financing very
efficiently.
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NPM Ratio
ROE/RONW Ratio
EPS
FATO Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
GPM Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio
2007
4.23
21.65
11.67
2.59
3.68
3.68
6.24
0.8
2006
10.29
35.22
18.16
1.95
2.73
2.73
15.63
0.72
2005
22.37
64.88
25.31
2.66
3.03
3.03
35.97
0.19
2004
17.17
47
9.81
2.74
2.75
2.75
25.7
0
2003
12.44
37.7
5.78
3.13
2.35
2.35
17.41
0.03
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Leverage Ratios :
Debt-Equity- We can see that company has been consistently reducing the portion of debt from
year on year which tells that, company is focused on the protection of its creditors. It is using its
debt proportion to very good extent.
Interest Coverage As we can see that, firms interest coverage capacity has been quite
consistency and showing the signs of increase in the last 2 years, tells that the firm can easily
meet its current burden even if PBIT suffer a considerable decline.
Turnover Ratios :
Inventory T O Ratio As we can see, the firms inventory portion has been quite consistant
over the years. This shows that company has been quite efficient in converting its inventory into
sales quite efficiently and quickly.
FATO As we can see, the portion of fixed assets have almost remained consistant over all the
years, we can tell that the firm has been using assets quite conservatively but they have been in
line with the firms requirements.
Profitability Ratios :
NPM From the trend, we can see that portion of net profit has decreased in the year 2007 and
2006. Earnings have been decreased in year 2006 and 2007 and less shares have been
distributed to shareholders.
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PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
AND CONSTRUCTION
Returns
16.18
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33.74 %
31.14 %
ACC CEMENTS
Capital Expenditure of 10 companies (in crores)
CAPEX = (increase in fixed assets) + (increase in Capital WIP) (increase in investments)
(increase in depcn)
Particulars
CAP WIP
Fixed assets
Investment
Depcn
Capex
2006
558.42
4,816.25
543.09
1,893.76
2937.57
2007
649.19
5,464.07
844.81
2,149.35
3119.1
Increase
90.77
647.82
301.72
255.59
181.28
FATR
Year
FATR
Weights
2007
1.74
5
8.7
Avg FATR
4.63
2006
1.65
4
6.6
2005
1.35
3
4.05
2004
1.32
2
2.64
2003
1.17
1
1.17
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SALES
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
7,848.32
6,453.07
5,222.57
3,699.89
4,539.35
Sales
Growth
2003-07)
2007
7,848.32
2008
9235.9
2009
10868.8
2010
12790.4
2011
15051.74
2012
17712.88
In a similar way of methodology used for ACC cements, all the companies CAPEX and
expected sales have been calculated.
PRESENT CAPEX
CAPEX
Companies
1 PRISM
DALMIA
(crores)
-135.37
2 CEMENTS
3 INDIA CEMENTS
ULTRATECH
351.76
803.08
4 EMENTS
5 ACC CEMENTS
MANGALAM
224.97
181.28
748.59
6 CEMENTS
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AVERAGE FATR
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Companies
PRISM
DALMIA CEMENTS
INDIA CEMENTS
ULTRATECH EMENTS
ACC CEMENTS
MANGALAM CEMENTS
LLYODS STEEL
JSW STEELS
SAIL
TATA METALIKS
2007
883.48
1,117.5
9
2008
1081.29
2009
1323.39
2010
1619.69
2011
1982.34
2012
2426.18
1438
1850.27
2380.74
3063.29
3941.53
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548.24
697.03
886.2
1,932.0
7 LLYODS STEEL
5 2588.93 3469.16
9,337.3 13,072.2 18301.1
8 JSW STEELS
4
7
8
40,291. 48382.1 58097.3
9 SAIL
75
9
3
10 TATA METALIKS
681.15 1076.21 1700.41
Portfolio Construction Based on Fundamental Analysis
6749.03
8557.77
13797.8
6
15051.7
4
17357.3
1
17712.8
8
1126.71
1432.5
1821.48
4648.67
25621.6
5
69763.2
7
2686.84
6229.21
35870.0
5
8347.14
50218.0
7
100592.
93
6707.24
83771.6
4245.09
On the basis of Excess returns to beta, the proportion of each stock to be included is determined
by assigning the weights to the expected future growth rates (sales growth) of companies.
Weights are used to calculate portfolio and Beta.
Sr. No
Company
1 PRISM
2 LLYODS
STEEL
3 DALMIA
CEMENTS
4 INDIA
CEMENTS
5 ULTRATECH
EMENTS
6 ACC
CEMENTS
7 JSW STEELS
8 MANGALAM
CEMENTS
9 SAIL
10 TATA
METALIKS
Expec. growth
rate
22.39%
33.96%
Weights
Prop
Returns
( exp GR
*W)
7.44%
1.67%
11.29%
3.83%
9.53%
2.73%
8.91%
2.39%
8.58%
2.21%
5.22%
0.92%
13.19%
9.02%
5.23%
2.45%
6.68%
19.47%
1.34%
11.40%
28.67%
26.80%
25.80%
17.68%
39.67%
27.14%
20.08%
58.55%
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Weights
Beta
PRISM
LLYODS STEEL
DALMIA CEMENTS
INDIA CEMENTS
ULTRATECH EMENTS
ACC CEMENTS
JSW STEELS
MANGALAM CEMENTS
SAIL
TATA METALIKS
7.44%
11.29%
9.53%
8.91%
8.58%
5.22%
13.19%
9.02%
6.68%
19.47%
Avg. Beta
1.1
1.02
0.91
1.25
1.36
0.92
0.97
1.14
1.06
1.48
0.81
of portfolio
DEBT PORTFOLIO
Step 1 : 10 top corporate debts were taken on random basis from the market
Step 2 : All the 10 debts are being given weights according to ratings given by the agencies
on basis of below mentioned scale
Debt Valuation
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Weight
5
4
3
2
Step 3: All the 10 (debt) securities YTMs, Durations, and Modified Durations are taken from
market and assigned weights for YTM, assuming higher the YTM higher the returns.
YTM
12.42
3.42
5.67
7.92
10.17
YTM
3.42
5.67
7.92
10.17
12.42
Weight
1
2
3
4
5
Step 4: As the modified duration tells the sensitivity of the bond (Beta of the bonds ) to the
changes in the interest rates. We can say that, higher the modified duration higher the risk. On
this basis modified duration, is taken as percentage and reduced in the sum of all the weights.
(Rating + YTM (% MOD DUR))
Step 5: Proportion to be invested is calculated by keeping the returns as the base. And expected
returns are then calculated by multiplying the proportions with the returns.
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Issue Description
AYTM
Mod
Exp
Duration Weights
%
%
Returns
%
PP342008O-II)
STATE BANK OF
9.6492
6.31
9.4
0.59314
9.5949
7.58
11.66
0.883828
9.53
5.79
8.9
0.51531
20DC22 FVRS10LAC
RECL 9.07% 2018
INE020B07DE1
(SERIES-83)
IDFC LTD 8.88 LOA
INE043D08813
07JN11 FVRS10LAC
HDFC 8.5 NCD 15OT08
9.6267
5.93
9.12
0.540816
INE001A07CW7
FVRS10LAC
EXIM BANK 9.1 BD
9.1845
6.46
9.93
0.641478
INE514E08423
18SP10 FVRS10LAC
IDBI LTD OMNI-1 6.75
9.08
6.39
9.78
0.624942
BD 18AG08 FV RS 1
INE008A08PR2
LAC
PGC 7.39% 2016 (S-
9.5356
6.67
10.26
0.684342
INE752E07AB5
XVIISTP-H)
STATE BANK OF
8.7508
7.11
10.88
0.773568
9.7517
6.67
10.26
0.684342
9.5342
Approx =
6.38
65
9.81
100
0.625878
6.567644
FVRS10LAC
IRFC 8.69 BD 07JN11
FVRS10LAC LOA
INE053F09FL9
Total
UPTO 01FB08
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Cpn
Avg
Proportion
Exp
rate
7.4
9.39
13.05
12
12.1
Returns
10.32%
8.72%
8.55%
8.31%
8.19%
to invest
23.41%
19.79%
19.38%
18.85%
18.57%
Returns
2.42%
1.73%
1.66%
1.57%
1.52%
8.89%
Equity Portfolio:
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rate
PRISM
LLYODS STEEL
DALMIA
22.39%
33.96%
CEMENTS
INDIA CEMENTS
ULTRATECH
28.67%
26.80%
EMENTS
ACC CEMENTS
JSW STEELS
MANGALAM
25.80%
17.68%
39.67%
CEMENTS
SAIL
TATA METALIKS
Prop
Weights
7.44%
11.29%
9.53%
8.91%
8.58%
5.22%
13.19%
9.02%
returns
Port Beta
1.67%
3.83%
2.73%
1.02
0.91
1.25
1.36
2.39%
2.21%
0.92
0.97
1.14
0.92%
5.23%
2.45%
1.06
1.48
0.81
27.14%
20.08%
58.55%
6.68%
19.47%
Returns
1.34%
11.40%
34.18 %
1.1
Debt portfolio:
Avg
Prop
Composition of Funds
Returns
Invested
Corporate debt
G Sec
364 T-bill and cash
6.56%
8.89%
6.50%
50.00%
30.00%
20.00%
Prop Returns
3.28%
2.67%
1.30%
Annual Returns
100.00% 7.25%
Now based on the above tables we construct a balanced portfolio with different combinations of
debt and equity where we try to trace the one combination which gives the optimum returns
with least risk (beta).
Table showing different combinations of debt and equity
Different combinations of Debt and Equity.
Equity
1
0.9
0.8
Debt
0
0.1
0.2
Equity
Debt
Returns
34.18 %
30.76 %
27.34%
returns
0.00 %
.72 %
1.45 %
Beta
1.1
1
0.88
Total returns
34.18 %
31.48 %
50.25%
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Annual Returns
Beta
Portfolio
34.18%
1
Nifty
31.48 %
1
The objective of any fund manager for any portfolio created by him/her is
Returns maximization at a fixed level of risk.
Risk minimization at a fixed level of returns.
In this case, researcher has achieved his objective hence forth.
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FINDINGS
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F u n d a m e n t a l An a l y s i s
STEEL SECTOR
1 India has a per capita consumption of steel of around 30 kgs as against 180 kgs in China and
an average of over 400 kgs in the developed countries. This wide gap in relative steel
consumption indicates that the potential ahead for India to raise its steel consumption is high.
2 Being a core sector, steel industry tracks the overall economic growth in the long-term. Also,
steel demand, being derived from other sectors like automobiles, consumer durables and
infrastructure, its fortune is dependent on the growth of these user industries.
3 The Indian steel sector enjoys advantages of domestic availability of raw materials and cheap
labour. Iron ore is also available in abundant quantities. This provides major cost advantage to
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PORTFOLIO FINDINGS
1
When the Equity portfolio was constructed using 10 sectors stocks, on the basis of annual
average growth rate 55 %, proportionate returns came about to be 34.18 %. .
The debt portfolio formed consisted together of corp. debt, G-Sec and 365 days T-Bills
gave annualized returns of 7.25 %
Total Return Index has been calculated which showed the annualized market returns of
31.14 %
The Equity portfolio consists of 6 stocks from cement sector and 4 from steel sector.
The average FATR of all the 10 equity stocks have been calculated which tells that
Mangalam, Ultratech cements, SAIL and Tata Metaliks have high FATO ratio which tells
that companies have fixed assets which have been used very efficiently. Where as all the
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When a new portfolio was constructed using different combinations od debt and equity,
combination of 90 % equity and 10 % debt gave annualized return of 31.48 % compared
to the total index returns 31.14 % at same level of Beta (systematic risk) i.e. 1
Optimum portfolio, was noticed when the combinations was .9 from equity part and .1
from debt portion with annualized return of 31.48 %
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RECOMMENDATIONS
1 The most basic suggestion is that an investor in order to diversify risk, he must use
fundamental analysis and portfolio valuation.
2 The steel sector portfolio has a very high return and high risk, and this is a very common
situation, as in to higher the risk, higher will be the return.
3 It is also suggested that the investor must look into the fundamentals of the company
thoroughly since majority of stock price movements are result of investors price perception and
from insider news.
4 The expected return to beta statistical measure can be used for future diversification of the
stocks which have higher expected return to beta.
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return of 34.18 % or combinations of (.9, .1) which fetches him annualized return of 31.48 %.
Portfolio evaluation
As the objective of project was construction of a portfolio based on fundamental analysis and
include debt to the portfolio so as to reduce the risk and make the portfolio yield regular returns
with stable capital appreciation, we have been successful in that. .
The research also tries to test the significance of excess return to beta, and find weather one can
construct a portfolio which beta is equal to market beta ( beta =1 ) and returns greater then
market returns.
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past. Researching on this aspect will be very valuable especially if the particular
company's stock price is not in line with others in the same business or industry.
For lay investors, one simple rule to remember would be that high risks would
accompany high returns. In the risk-return scale the various types of company shares
in ascending order would be defensive stocks, established growth stocks, emerging
blue chips (now referred to as mid-caps), re-rating candidates like turnaround
companies, divestment of PSUs or companies benefiting from some expected
fundamental changes in economy, regulations, technology etc.
One more simple and practical way to broadly determine the risk-reward equation
would be a reference to the size of the company by market capitalization. Market
capitalization means the price at which 100% shares of the company can be purchased
at current market prices and would be equivalent to the amount you will obtain by
multiplying the current price by the total number of shares issued by the company.
Viewed by market capitalization, larger companies would have lower risks and return
potential but will involve lower unseen risks. In this way, you are using the judgments
of the entire market to your advantage. Let us consider an example. Infosys has a
large market cap. Polaris Software has a much smaller market cap. Profit potential and
risks will be lower in Infosys compared to Polaris Software. Similarly, for any
industry and also across industries normally.
Many people are unhappy that leading newspapers only carry prices of larger
companies' shares. Actually such smaller lists serve as lists of shares with limited
risks.
CONCLUSION
After analyzing the data in detail, it was found that, majority of the companies have
given good returns historically as well and they will continue to perform well in the
future also. it is a time and good opportunity for the investors to invest in the steel and
cement sector stocks as demand will only increase.
Whenever, an investor wants to construct portfolio, he should go for portfolio
consisting of equity and debt combinations, which will minimize risk and maximize
returns as we have found out from project.
Portfolio constructed has given higher returns than market
returns at same level of risk.