APLICANDO EL MTODO DE NASH

PERIODOS DE RETORNO 10, 25, 50 Y 100 AOS

CAUDALES MAXIMOS ANUALES DE LA CUENCA AMOJAO
(m/s)
AO
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

CAUDALES ANUALES (m/s)

AMOJAO
NICARAGUA
CAUDAL
TOTAL (m/s)
MAX.
MAX.
11.47
5.59
17.06
2.97
4.14
7.11
2.37
11.27
13.64
2.31
10.32
12.64
2.17
9.24
11.41
2.09
7.29
9.38
1.92
5.24
7.17
1.80
8.26
10.06
1.73
51.24
52.97
1.72
11.32
13.04
1.71
12.35
14.06
1.70
9.35
11.04
1.68
7.00
8.69
1.68
13.25
14.93
1.41
9.90
11.31
1.10
13.21
14.31
0.84
14.31
15.15

Solucin:
1.- Ordenando en forma descendente, los valores de los caudales maximos.
CAUDALES MAXIMOS ANUALES DE LA
CUENCA AMOJAO (m/s)
CAUDALES ANUALES (m/s)
CAUDAL
AO
ORDENADO
TOTAL
MAX.
(m/s)
1984
17.06
52.97
1985
7.11
17.06
1986
13.64
15.15

1987
1988
1989
1990
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

12.64
11.41
9.38
7.17
10.06
52.97
13.04
14.06
11.04
8.69
14.93
11.31
14.31
15.15

14.93
14.31
14.06
13.64
13.04
12.64
11.41
11.31
11.04
10.06
9.38
8.69
7.17
7.11

Segn tabla se tiene la organizacin de Caudales para el calculo con el metodo de Nash
2.- Calculos Preliminares

m (1)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
SUMATORIA

CAUDALES (m/s)

52.97
17.06
15.15
14.93
14.31
14.06
13.64
13.04
12.64
11.41
11.31
11.04
10.06
9.38
8.69
7.17
7.11
243.9472

3.- Calculo del Qm y Xm

T (3)
18.00
9.00
6.00
4.50
3.60
3.00
2.57
2.25
2.00
1.80
1.64
1.50
1.38
1.29
1.20
1.13
1.06

T/(T-1) (4)
1.0588
1.1250
1.2000
1.2857
1.3846
1.5000
1.6364
1.8000
2.0000
2.2500
2.5714
3.0000
3.6000
4.5000
6.0000
9.0000
18.0000

X (5)
-1.6051
-1.2911
-1.1014
-0.9620
-0.8498
-0.7543
-0.6698
-0.5930
-0.5214
-0.4532
-0.3870
-0.3214
-0.2547
-0.1849
-0.1089
-0.0203
0.0987
-9.9797

Qm=
Xm=

14.35 m3/s
-0.5870

4.- Calculo de los Parametros a y b;

b=
a=

-16.99
4.38

5.- Calculo del Caudal Maximo.

T
T
T
T

=
=
=
=

10 aos
25 aos
50 aos
100 aos

Qmax=
Qmax=
Qmax=
Qmax=

27.13
34.13
39.32
44.47

m3/s
m3/s
m3/s
m3/s

6.- Calculo de las desviaciones estandar y covarianza

Sxx=
Sqq=
Sxq=

58.93
29118.51
-1001.02

7.- Calculo del Intervalo de Confianza

El valor de X se calcula para cada periodo de retorno

T
T
T
T

=
=
=
=

10 aos
25 aos
50 aos
100 aos

X=
X=
X=
X=

-1.3395
-1.7513
-2.0568
-2.3600

T
T
T
T

=
=
=
=

10 aos
25 aos
50 aos
100 aos

Q=
Q=
Q=
Q=

9.19 m3/s
11.08 m3/s
12.54 m3/s
14.05 m3/s

Qd=
Qd=
Qd=
Qd=

36.33
45.21
51.86
58.52

8.- Calculo del Caudal de Diseo

T
T
T
T

=
=
=
=

10 aos
25 aos
50 aos
100 aos

m3/s
m3/s
m3/s
m3/s

O DE NASH

100 AOS

les maximos.

l metodo de Nash

Q*X (6)
-85.02
-22.02
-16.68
-14.36
-12.16
-10.60
-9.14
-7.74
-6.59
-5.17
-4.38
-3.55
-2.56
-1.74
-0.95
-0.15
0.70
-202.09

Q2 (7)
2805.503089
290.873025
229.461904
222.934761
204.718864
197.543025
185.995044
170.15115364
159.668496
130.256569
127.848249
121.947849
101.183481
88.059456
75.463969
51.351556
50.495236
5213

X2 (8)
2.5765
1.6670
1.2130
0.9254
0.7221
0.5689
0.4487
0.3516
0.2718
0.2054
0.1498
0.1033
0.0649
0.0342
0.0119
0.0004
0.0097
9.3247