FYE March

Revenue
% growth

Burberry
Actual
2015A
2016A
2,523
2,515
(0.3%)

2017E
2,590
3.0%

Ebitda
% margin

579
22.9%

550
21.9%

531
20.5%

590
21.5%

649
22.4%

710
23.3%

Depreciation & Amortization

% of capex

139
89.0%

147
106.6%

142
99.7%

144
95.3%

152
95.2%

159
95.2%

EBIT
% margin

440
17.5%

403
16.0%

389
15.0%

447
16.3%

497
17.1%

550
18.0%

Capex
% of sales

156
6.2%

138
5.5%

142
5.5%

151
5.5%

159
5.5%

167
5.5%

FYE Jan
Revenue
% growth

Prada
Actual
2015A
2016A
2,842
2,572
(9.5%)

2017E
2,837
10.3%

Broker projections
2018E
2019E
2,928
3,060
3.2%
4.5%

2020E
3,251
6.2%

Ebitda
% margin

764
26.9%

582
22.6%

616
21.7%

641
21.9%

667
21.8%

734
22.6%

Depreciation & Amortization

% of capex

199
68.7%

237
83.1%

265
125.6%

229
106.0%

236
109.8%

219
85.9%

EBIT
% margin

565
19.9%

345
13.4%

351
12.4%

412
14.1%

431
14.1%

515
15.8%

Capex
% of sales

289
10.2%

286
11.1%

211
7.4%

216
7.4%

215
7.0%

255
7.8%

FYE Dec
Revenue
% growth

TOD's
Actual
2014A
2015A
778
753
(3.2%)

2016E
787
4.6%

Broker projections
2017E
2018E
823
854
4.6%
3.8%

2019E
891
4.3%

Ebitda
% margin

147
18.9%

138
18.4%

144
18.4%

157
19.1%

170
19.9%

179
20.1%

Depreciation & Amortization

% of capex

34
64.5%

35
100.6%

31
77.6%

33
78.5%

33
78.4%

38
81.6%

EBIT
% margin

113
14.6%

103
13.7%

113
14.4%

124
15.1%

137
16.1%

141
15.8%

Capex
% of sales

52
6.7%

35
4.6%

41
5.2%

42
5.1%

42
5.0%

46
5.2%

Broker projections
2018E
2019E
2,746
2,900
6.0%
5.6%

2020E
3,052
5.3%

Comparable trading metrics and multiples (calendarised March year end, firm value and market cap in mm)
Company
Pure Luxury
LVMH
Herms
Kering
Prada
Burberry
Moncler
Tods
Brunello
JimmyChoo
Average
Median
Soft Luxury
Richemont
Luxottica
Swatch
Tiffany
Average
Median
Overall Average
Overall Median

Market

Firm

Net debt/

FV/EBITDA

cap

value

57,230
30,230
15,816
6,070
5,187
3,058
1,329
915
409

61,392
28,845
20,357
6,195
4,582
3,101
1,218
961
530

0.5x
(0.9x)
2.2x
0.2x
(1.2x)
0.2x
(0.8x)
0.8x
2.3x
0.4x
0.2x

8.7x
19.4x
11.5x
10.5x
8.3x
11.8x
8.7x
15.9x
10.0x
11.7x
10.5x

8.3x
18.0x
10.7x
10.0x
8.6x
10.6x
8.2x
14.3x
8.7x
10.8x
10.0x

7.7x
16.6x
9.8x
9.6x
7.8x
9.6x
7.6x
12.9x
7.8x
9.9x
9.6x

8.6x
19.0x
11.3x
10.4x
8.4x
11.5x
8.6x
15.4x
9.6x
11.4x
10.4x

8.1x
17.6x
10.4x
9.9x
8.4x
10.3x
8.1x
13.9x
8.4x
10.6x
9.9x

18.4x
35.3x
17.5x
22.0x
16.6x
20.3x
15.9x
31.6x
20.5x
22.0x
20.3x

16.5x
31.5x
15.0x
21.8x
16.6x
18.3x
16.5x
28.7x
16.6x
20.2x
16.6x

15.2x
28.9x
13.4x
20.0x
15.5x
16.3x
15.0x
25.0x
14.0x
18.1x
15.5x

17.8x
34.1x
16.7x
22.1x
16.6x
19.7x
16.2x
30.9x
19.3x
21.5x
19.3x

16.1x
30.7x
14.5x
21.3x
16.2x
17.7x
16.0x
27.7x
15.7x
19.6x
16.2x

23.0%
35.6%
17.9%
22.5%
21.9%
33.8%
18.4%
16.7%
16.1%
22.9%
21.9%

24,618
17,857
11,772
5,965

17,998
18,662
10,532
6,220

(2.4x)
0.5x
(0.9x)
0.3x
(0.6x)
(0.3x)

8.1x
11.7x
7.4x
8.1x
8.8x
8.1x

9.0x
10.9x
7.8x
8.5x
9.1x
8.7x

8.2x
10.1x
7.3x
7.9x
8.4x
8.1x

8.3x
11.5x
7.6x
8.2x
8.9x
8.3x

8.8x
10.7x
7.7x
8.3x
8.9x
8.6x

17.1x
24.1x
14.2x
16.2x
17.9x
16.6x

18.8x
22.9x
15.0x
16.7x
18.4x
17.8x

17.2x
20.6x
13.8x
15.3x
16.7x
16.3x

17.5x
23.9x
14.6x
16.4x
18.1x
17.0x

18.4x
22.3x
14.7x
16.3x
17.9x
17.4x

23.6%
21.1%
21.6%
24.4%
22.7%
22.6%

0.1x
0.2x

10.8x
10.0x

10.3x
9.0x

9.5x
8.2x

10.6x
9.6x

10.0x
8.8x

20.7x
18.4x

19.6x
16.7x

17.7x
15.5x

20.4x
17.8x

19.1x
16.3x

22.8%
21.9%

EBITDA Mar-16 Mar-16

Mar-17 Mar-18

P/E
LTM

NTM

Mar-16

Mar-17 Mar-18

EBITDA mar
LTM

NTM

Mar-16

Comparable trading metrics and multiples (calendarised March year end, firm value and market cap in mm)
EBITDA margin
Company
Pure Luxury
LVMH
Herms
Kering
Prada
Burberry
Moncler
Tods
Brunello
JimmyChoo
Average
Median

Mar-17

LTM

Mar-2015-17E CAGR
NTM

Sales

EBITDA

EPS

23.3%
35.8%
18.3%
21.7%
20.5%
33.1%
18.6%
17.0%
16.8%
22.8%
20.5%

23.1%
35.6%
18.0%
22.2%
21.5%
33.5%
18.4%
16.8%
16.3%
22.8%
21.5%

23.3%
35.9%
18.5%
21.8%
20.8%
33.1%
18.8%
17.1%
17.0%
22.9%
20.8%

8.5%
10.5%
8.2%
1.0%
1.3%
18.4%
1.6%
11.8%
9.3%
7.8%
8.5%

8.4%
11.4%
5.5%
(8.1)%
(4.2)%
17.4%
1.0%
10.7%
10.1%
5.8%
8.4%

13.0%
12.6%
4.2%
(16.3)%
(4.5)%
18.1%
(4.5)%
6.0%
131.2%
17.8%
6.0%

Soft Luxury
Richemont
Luxottica
Swatch
Tiffany
Average
Median

21.8%
21.4%
20.7%
23.7%
21.9%
21.6%

23.1%
21.1%
21.2%
24.1%
22.4%
22.2%

22.1%
21.6%
20.9%
23.8%
22.1%
21.9%

(3.5)%
8.5%
(2.0)%
(2.3)%
0.2%
(2.2%)

(17.6)%
11.2%
(8.4)%
(5.7)%
(5.1%)
(7.1%)

1.9%
14.2%
(12.4)%
(5.9)%
(0.5%)
(2.0%)

Overall Average
Overall Median

22.5%
21.4%

22.7%
21.5%

22.7%
21.6%

5.5%
8.2%

2.4%
5.5%

12.1%
4.2%

Date

Bidder

Target

Jun 15
May 15
May 15
Apr 15
Jan 15
Jan 15
June 14
May 14
Apr 14
Mar 14
Feb 14
Dec 13
Dec 13
Dec 13
Nov 13
Oct 13
Jul 13
Jun 13
May 13
May 13
Apr 13
Mar 13
Feb 13
Jun 13
Jan 13
Jan 13
Nov 12
Average
Median

Mayhools Investments
Ascena Retail Group
Brait, Singh family, Management
Clessidra
Foschini
M1 Group and L Capital Asia
HanesBrands
Samsonite
Sanpower Group
Eurazeo
Jos. A. Bank
Blackstone
Sycamore Partners
Leonard Green & Partners
Men's Wearhouse
Permira
Joe's Jeans
SMS Finance
Apax Partners
TowerBrook
KKR
Sycamore Partners
Iconix Brand Group
E.Land
Gap
BDT & General Atlantic
Fast Retailing

Boyner Perakende (30.7%)

Ann Inc
New Look Group
Roberto Cavalli
Phase Eight
Pepe Jeans (58.9%)
DBApparel
Speck Products
House of Fraser (89.0%)
Desigual (10.0%)
Men's Wearhouse
Crocs (13.5%)
The Jones Group
Lucky Brand Jeans
Jos. A. Bank
Dr. Martens
Hudson Jeans
La Perla
Rue21
True Religion
SMCP (65.0%)
Hot Topic
Lee Cooper
K-Swiss
Intermix
Tory Burch (14.2%)
J Brand (80.1%)

Deal Value
FV/Sales
(mm)
300
1.20x
1,902
0.77x
1,242
n/a
390
1.54x
209
1.80x
900
n/a
400
0.62x
62
0.60x
545
0.73x
285
3.44x
1,295
1.39x
144
0.97x
875
0.57x
163
0.47x
1,135
1.19x
351
1.87x
75
0.82x
69
0.64x
766
1.03x
644
1.33x
423
1.67x
457
0.75x
54
n/a
127
0.58x
99
1.00x
357
4.34x
220
3.00x
1.35x
1.02x

FV/EBITDA

FVEBIT

14.7x
8.1x
9.0x
21.8x
10.8x
11.0x
7.4x
n/a
8.5x
11.9x
10.6x
8.0x
11.1x
7.2x
9.1x
11.7x
n/a
n/a
9.2x
8.3x
10.8x
8.7x
n/a
n/m
n/a
14.3x
n/a
10.6x
9.9x

26.3x
15.1x
n/a
n/a
12.8x
n/a
n/a
n/a
24.5x
n/a
13.9x
11.3x
20.1x
15.1x
11.7x
12.4x
n/a
n/a
13.6x
10.0x
n/a
18.0x
n/a
n/m
n/a
n/a
n/a
15.8x
13.9x