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Introduction
Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. Forecasting can
involve historical data and their projection into the future with some sort of
mathematical model (See Figure 1 ). It can be a subjective or intuitive prediction.
Forecasting can work in one place but not in another one. Forecasting requires
money and time to prepare and monitor. Effective planning in both the short and
long run depends on a forecast of demand for the companys products.
As an example, virtual reality devices such as LCD TVs need longer forecasts than
those in the maturity and decline stages, such as video recorders or 3 floppy
disks. Forecasts that reflect life cycle are useful in projecting different staffing
levels, inventory levels, and factory capacity to be produced.
Types of Forecasts
Organizations use three types of forecasts in planning future operations:
Economic forecasts. They address the business cycle by predicting inflation
rates, money supplies, housing parts, and other planning indicators.
Technological forecasts. These are related to rates of technological progress.
They can be the result of the birth of exciting new products, requiring new plants
and equipment.
Demand forecasts. They are projections of demand for a companys products or
services. These are sales forecasts that drive a companys production, capacity,
and scheduling systems and serve as inputs to financial, marketing, and personnel
planning.
Examples of Forecasting
Example 1: Disney World, Seven Steps in the Forecasting System This example of
forecasting follows seven basic steps. This is the Global Company Profile of
Disney World: 1. Determine the use of the forecast. Disney uses park attendance
forecasts to drive staffing, opening times, ride availability, and food supplies.
2. Select the items to be forecasted. For Disney World, there are six main parks. A
forecast of daily attendance at each is the main number that determines labor,
maintenance, and scheduling.
3. Determine the time horizon of the forecast. Is it short, medium, or long term?
Disney develops daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and 5-year forecasts.
4. Select the forecasting models. Disney uses a variety of statistical models that
permit to discuss, including moving averages, econometrics, and regression
analysis. It also employs judgmental and nonquantitative models.
5. Gather the data needed to make the forecast. Disneys forecasting team
employs 35 analysts and 70 field personnel to survey 1 million people/business
every year. It also uses a firm called Global Insights for travel industry forecasts
and gathers data on exchange rates, arrivals into the U.S., Wall Street trends, and
school vacations schedules.
6. Make the forecast. Based on the previous steps, Disney follows the forecasting
procedure.
7. Validate and implement the results. At Disney, forecasts are reviewed daily at the
highest levels to make sure that the model, assumptions, and data are valid. Error
measures are applied; then the forecasts are used to schedule personnel down to
15-minute intervals.
The use of forecasting permits to initiate, design and implement a forecasting
system. It needs to create and generate forecasts regularly over time, and data
needs to be routinely collected.
Example 2: Forecasting at Blue Cookies
Blue Cookies is a Colombian company. It sells cookies in each shop of the
principal cities. It has 200 cookie shops around the country. Every month, it sells an
average of 20 boxes at each shop. On special celebrations like in May, September
and December, boxes sales increase on these months. At the beginning of the
year, the logistics manager requires to forecast the number of boxes to buy for the
following year. From one year to another the sales of cookies increase 5%. What is
the forecast of sales for the next year in 3, 6, 9, 12 months in this company? In
Figure 3 , we can see the boxes sales at the present year.
TRADUCCION
INTROCUCCION
Pronosticar
Tiempo
Horizote
Previsin
cubre
los
futuros
horizontes
de tiempo.
horizontes
de
tiempo
se dividen
en
tres
categoras:
pronstico
a corto. Esta previsin tiene un lapso de tiempo de hasta 1 ao, pero es
generalmente inferior a tres meses. Se utiliza para la compra de planificacin, la
planificacin de tareas, niveles de mano de obra, las asignaciones de trabajo y los
niveles de produccin.
previsin de medio alcance. Una de alcance medio o intermedio de previsin se
extiende generalmente de 3 meses a 3 aos. Es til en la planificacin de ventas,
planificacin de la produccin y elaboracin de presupuestos, presupuestos de
caja y anlisis de los diversos planes operativos.
prediccin a largo plazo. Generalmente cubre 3 aos o ms del tiempo
establecido. predicciones a largo plazo se utilizan en la planificacin de nuevos
productos, gastos de capital, ubicacin de la instalacin o ampliacin, y la
investigacin y el desarrollo.
Ejemplos de Prediccin
Ejemplo 1: Disney World, siete pasos en el Sistema de Pronstico Este ejemplo de
la previsin sigue siete pasos bsicos. Este es el perfil de la empresa Global de
Disney World: 1. Determinar el uso de la previsin. Disney utiliza previsiones de
asistencia parque para impulsar la dotacin de personal, horarios de apertura, la
disponibilidad de paseo, y los suministros de alimentos.
2. Seleccionar los elementos para ser pronosticadas. Para Disney World, hay seis
parques principales. Un pronstico de asistencia diaria a cada uno es el nmero
principal que determina la mano de obra, mantenimiento y programacin.
3. Determinar el horizonte de tiempo del pronstico. Es corto, mediano o largo
plazo? Disney se desarrolla a diario, semanal, mensual, anual, y las previsiones
de 5 aos.