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NOIDA/DELHI

EDITORIAL

THE HINDU FRIDAY, AUGUST 5, 2016

Understanding the Trump phenomenon

Donald Trumps rise is despite his unorthodox positions on several issues, and it ruptures the two-party
systems ability to subsume distinct ideological strands
F R I D AY , A U G U S T 5 , 2 0 1 6

Giving India a
global-scale bank

he proposed merger of the State Bank of India with its five associate banks and the Bharatiya Mahila Bank is a long-delayed and
welcome move on the path to banking consolidation, especially among state-owned lenders. SBIs
takeover of its five subsidiaries and the three-yearold niche provider of banking services for women
will, once consummated, vault the merged entity
higher up the rankings ladder on the global banking
stage. The resultant benefits to the lender and the
economy are evident. The increased balance sheet
size will enable the bank to obtain better pricing on
both internationally sourced funds and domestic
deposits, thus helping it lower lending rates and improve profitability. The added branch network and
customer base will also help it expand reach and
enable the lender to rationalise resources across
the board. There are various estimates of the potential cost savings, with one projection putting the
possible reduction in cost-to-income ratio at 1 percentage point. The lenders increased size, in terms
of assets, will also give it the requisite muscle to
take on new competition from larger banking entities that are likely to be created by consolidation in
the banking industry. The Bank Board Bureau has
been tasked with overseeing a restructuring among
public sector banks in keeping with the governments aim of reducing the number of state-owned
lenders and improving their financial health.
The merger will, however, pose its unique set of
challenges. The scale of the task is substantial given
the total staff strength. With more than two lakh
employees, the parent will add close to one-fifth
that number by way of additions posing a huge test
in terms of integration of roles, salary, perquisite
and pension structures and, no less importantly,
work cultures. Much of the opposition from the
bank unions stems from concerns relating to these
issues. Customers of the smaller, community or regional market-focussed subsidiaries such as the
State Bank of Travancore may be discomfited by
having to deal with a larger, more impersonal lender, one where the size of their accounts may be
viewed as comparatively marginal. For regulators,
the new entity will throw up interesting oversight
issues. Already identified by the Reserve Bank of
India as the countrys key Domestic Systemically
Important Bank, or too big to fail in simple terms,
the enlarged SBIs capital adequacy norms will
climb and may require far more by way of infusion
of funds than the Centre has committed so far. But
such challenges must not be used to undermine the
obvious benefits of merger.

tionalist party, focussed on protectionism

and immigration; (3) a centrist party with
some weak welfarist positions, but broadly
pro-globalisation; and (4) a left-wing, protectionist, and strongly interventionist party, along the lines espoused in 2016 by the
supporters of Democrat Bernie Sanders.
It should also be noted that many of Mr.
Trumps positions, especially on social and
cultural issues, are unstable or unorthodox
when compared to other Republicans such
as Mr. Cruz or Marco Rubio. (This includes
issues such as gay rights, and also though
this is more murky the right to choose).
On the economy, he is currently protectionist, and anti-globalisation, quite similar in
tone to parties such as the Front National in
France, or the UK Independence Party in
Britain. In sum, Mr. Trump represents a particular brand of extreme American cultural
and economic nationalism that fits well
with the social base outlined above.

SANJAY
SUBRAHMANYAM

No matter what happens in the U.S. on Election Day, November 8, 2016, and whatever
the outcome, the Donald Trump phenomenon must be analysed from two angles:
what has produced it, and what could happen if Mr. Trump (or someone similar to
him) comes to power. The mainstream U.S.
media and the international press have so
far proven inadequate to either task, and
most particularly to the latter. Let us briefly
look then at what has produced Mr. Trump.
The usual reasons given for his success
are the anger and resentment felt by largely
white, male, lower middle class, working
class and lumpen proletarian voters in the
U.S. who feel they have been progressively
disenfranchised by both parties the Democrats because of their policies on race, gender, and protection against the global economy, and the Republicans because they have
catered largely only to the highly affluent
(for example, the Mitt Romney candidacy,
where he turned out to have paid taxes at a
remarkable rate of 14 per cent). Logically,
therefore, we would expect the largest concentration of pro-Trump votes to come from
the so-called Rust Belt and the South, rather
than the two coasts. On the other hand, it
means that these voters are voting precisely
for their class enemy, the man who represents an unbridled robber baron mentality
as few others do, and whose fortunes (such
as they are) rest in the most dubious of locations, namely real estate speculation. But we
may also note some other curious phenomena that exist in the support for Mr. Trump.
Consider the following three issues.
The unlikely Republican
The Republican presidential candidate is
certainly irreligious, and perhaps even an
unbeliever, rather remarkable for a candidate from either of the two current mainstream parties, and especially for a Republican. Yet his voters are largely indifferent to
this matter, suggesting that the so-called
Karl Rove formula (of beating the bushes for
the evangelical vote) does not always work.
Ted Cruz, for example was unable to make
any headway against Mr. Trump on the basis
of this contrast. In contrast to Mr. Trump,

Whatever happens this year, a

formula can now increasingly
emerge in U.S. politics for the
creation of charismatic, populist
demagogues
over two-thirds of the other Republican candidates were what might be called Christian
fundamentalists (as Eliot Weinberger
points out in the recent London Review of
Books).
This is for somewhat obvious reasons of
history. After all Mr. Trump is a very recent
turncoat rather than a long-standing Republican. Yet, this is again seen by his current supporters as a sign of his pragmatism,
rather than his opportunism. What it does
suggest is that over the next decade or so,
the two-party system has some potential to
break down, or to be radically reorganised,
since in reality it papers over at least four
distinct positions: (1) a right-wing Christian
fundamentalist and Creationist party, which
is at the same time for low income taxes and
free trade; (2) a right-wing populist, and na-

Riding on the celeb bounce

But there is a paradox here. For Mr. Trump
is entirely the product of the phenomena he
ostensibly decries. Perhaps of greatest importance is the fact that Mr. Trumps success
owes itself almost entirely to his status as a
rich celebrity who, after touting a ghostwritten self-help book, The Art of the Deal
(1987), then became a well-known face on
account of a reality TV programme, The Apprentice. In short, he is largely famous for
being famous, and he has in fact invested
considerable effort in making himself progressively more notorious. In the absence of
a highly developed culture of celebrity-fascination, a candidacy like his would have
been totally impossible. Throughout, it is
his celebrity status that has driven the media
and general obsession with his candidacy,
and also protected him from the usual scrutiny that normal politicians are meant to
undergo, on such issues as intelligence and
knowledge of current affairs, personal honesty, consistency of views, and so on.
From all of this, we may conclude that
whatever happens this year a formula can
now increasingly emerge in U.S. politics for
the creation of charismatic, populist demagogues, by means of channelling media celebrity. While Arnold Schwarzenegger was
able to do this on the more modest level of
California on the basis of his Hollywood
success, it then turned out that he in fact had
a great deal more good sense and policy sav-

CARTOONSCAPE

Bihars draconian
prohibition law

othing succeeds like excess. This may well

be the belief of the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar, which has passed a stringent
law to enforce its total prohibition policy. Prohibition on country-made liquor was imposed on April
1, and within days it was expanded to cover IndianMade Foreign Liquor. However, the State has now
come up with fresh legislation to supersede earlier
Acts in a bid to ward off criticism that penal laws
and administrative measures do not prevent alcohol consumption. Brushing aside criticism in the
Assembly, the government has pushed through a
Bill so stringent that the Opposition parties call it
draconian. This cannot be dismissed as the usual
criticism of political adversaries, as some of the
provisions indeed are scarily excessive. The most
egregious one allows action against all adult members of a family if liquor is found on their premises
or one of them is suspected to have consumed it.
The law presumes that all of them must be aware of
the offence until proven otherwise, but essentially
this amounts to collective punishment. Similarly,
the owner of any premises in which liquor is stored
or consumed is liable for prosecution. With the offences related to consumption, storage and possession of alcohol or any other intoxicant being cognisable, the sweeping provision could land anyone
in jail because of the involvement of one family
member, tenant or visitor. The authorities could
seal or confiscate the property, and fine a group of
people or a village, for repeated transgressions.
Of late there has been a populist competition between political parties in moving towards liquor
bans in various parts of the country. The growing
tendency among State governments to ban liquor
in the apparent interest of protecting the public
health may appear politically attractive, but it is
fraught with practical consequences: fall in revenue, a rise in contraband movement, the formation
of mafias and a spike in corruption. Mr. Kumar argues that the law is effective in its present form as it
seeks to plug all loopholes. It also contains safeguards in the form of provisions to punish officials
who misuse it. It may appear pointless trying to
convince those who are politically committed to
prohibition that the step is impractical, unfeasible
or illiberal; it is up to them to draw their own lessons from experience. And from Mr. Kumars recent statements it is clear that the promise of prohibition may be his calling card as he tries to extend
the political presence of the Janata Dal (United) beyond Bihar. However, the controversial new provisions are unlikely to survive judicial scrutiny. Bihar
would do well to reconsider them.
CM
YK

vy than Mr. Trump has ever demonstrated.

The use in both Democratic and Republican
conventions of celebrities for key statements and endorsements also does not bode
well in this respect. The U.S. may now be
taking the path already defined elsewhere in
the world, notably in South Asia, where celebrities regularly cash in on their cultural
capital for political success (N.T. Rama
Rao, Jayalalithaa, etc.).
Contours of a Trump presidency
It is one thing to use celebrity status and
populist demagoguery to gain power, but
what happens afterwards? If Mr. Trump
were to come to power in November, we
have relatively few clear indications as to
how he would proceed and what policies he
would actually follow (beyond some gestures towards protectionism, the restriction
of immigration, and friendly dealing with
the Vladimir Putin regime in Russia). It
would seem that at present, only a small
number of mainstream Republicans
such as New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
are willing to play a real role in his team.
Perhaps Paul Ryan, Speaker of the U.S.
House of Representatives, will eventually
join that number. But for the rest, a dismaying fact is the inordinate place given to a
family inner circle, which does and will apparently still control access to him, and in
which his son-in-law Jared Kushner plays a
prominent role. There are several names
that are essentially associated with the nitty-gritty of the campaign, such as the rather
sinister personage of Paul Manafort (who
had managed the political career in Ukraine
of former President Viktor Yanukovych),
but also of Roger Stone and Michael Glassner. On foreign affairs questions, names that
are at times mentioned are those of retired
General Joseph Kellogg and Carter Page:
both of these figures are known only for a
limited set of views which are broadly proRussian, anti-Muslim, and anti-immigration. Yet, often these men are little more
than former lobbyists and representatives of
special interests. On the economic front, the
rumours of the past some months point to a
prominent role for Stephen Moore of conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, and Lawrence Kudlow, a consultant
and host for CNBC. Both men are, to put it
mildly, lightweights in a country which is
certainly not lacking for talent among professional economists, even of a quite conservative sort. Mr. Kudlow for his part is of late
touting the name of the billionaire investor
Wilbur Ross as a possible Treasury Secretary Mr. Rosss fame and fortune largely rest
on his activities as a distressed asset investor who has generally profited from leveraged buyouts.
If, as seems likely, a President Trump will
be unable to draw for the most part on the
talents of mainstream Republicans to fill
his Cabinet, he will perforce wind up relying
on three other types: other media-savvy celebrities on the right wing, members of his
own extended family circle, and lobbyists
linked to various special interests. To be
sure, the last type can be found in many U.S.
administrations, but it may be a matter of the
different proportions involved. Here is why
it is important not to think of Mr. Trump as a
normal, charismatically oriented fascist
(as exists in Europe today): he has no cadre
or group organisation to fall back on. This
vacuum means that the months between
November 2016 and January 2017 may see a
rush to seek the loaves and fishes of office
that has few precedents in recent American
memory.
What will emerge from all that shoving
and jostling? At the end of it all, the U.S. may
resemble the largest banana republic on the
planet.
Sanjay Subrahmanyam is a Professor of History at the
University of California, Los Angeles.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Letters emailed to letters@thehindu.co.in must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.

A watershed moment
The passage of the much-awaited
Constitutional Amendment Bill in
the Rajya Sabha to usher in the
goods and services tax (GST) is
undoubtedly a watershed moment
in the history of Independent India
(Green light for one nation, one
tax, August 4). That the ruling
dispensation and the Opposition
displayed a politics of
bipartisanship towards the passage
of the Bill, keeping all their narrow
political interests at bay, is
heartening. The Union government
may have set April 2017 as the
deadline to roll out the GST across
the country, but given the hurdles, it
seems like it may take much longer.
While the GST offers many
advantages to the economy and to
the people more jobs, high
economic growth, higher tax
collection with less tax evasion, and
ease of doing business, we cant
forget that the GST is an indirect
tax, which by nature is regressive
and affects the poor, perpetuating
income inequality if the tax rate is
not capped. In this context, the
demand for capping the GST tax
rate at 18 per cent merits serious
consideration.
M. Jeyaram,
Sholavandan, Tamil Nadu

Good sense has prevailed over the

GST, but there are vital issues to be
ironed out. It is no wonder that
income tax revenue has for long

been lagging behind indirect taxes

which are easier to recover. With
the government showing reluctance
in investing in healthcare and
welfare schemes, savings have
remained the nest egg for all but the
affluent. The load of the GST, which
will largely be borne by the lowerand middle-income groups, will
significantly reduce their capacity
to save. The GST cannot be an
achievement in isolation. The
increased revenue thereof must also
serve the welfare and old-age needs
of the common man. Inflation has to
be zealously contained. People need
healthier savings schemes that give
them cover for the future. Today
India has the lowest savings rate, as
ratio of the GDP, in two decades.
The road ahead is long.
R. Narayanan,

the course of the Indian economy.

For the smooth sailing of the GST,
cooperation is imperative between
the Centre and the States to arrive
at a consensus on issues such as the
revenue neutral rate.
Rajnish Kumar Yadav,
Banka, Bihar

The passage of the GST Bill is a

triumph of democracy. The credit
for it goes to the Finance Minister,
who has been working very hard in
trying to accommodate the
suggestions of all the parties to get
the Bill passed. But due credit must
be given to the Opposition too. This
cooperation shows that parties, if
they want, can come together on
issues of national importance.
A.L. Agarwal,

New Delhi

Plane crash

Keeping the tax rate at 18 per cent is

going to drain the pockets of the
middle class and the poor. There
needs to be a cap on taxation. The
government cannot keep on
burdening the middle class through
indirect taxes. Rather, it should
expand direct taxes.
V. Ari Balaji,

The Emirates crew did a wonderful

job of evacuating all the passengers
to safety (Plane crash-lands in
Dubai; 300 escape, August 4).
Aircraft emergencies are of two
types: anticipated emergencies
wherein the pilots are aware in
flight of the emergency, and the
cabin crew alert and guide the
passengers for emergency landing
and safety; and unanticipated ones,
such as what happened to the EK521
aircraft carrying 300 passengers. It
is remarkable that the cabin crew
reacted to the crash-landing, an
unanticipated emergency, so well.
G. Murali Mohan Rao,

Tiruvannamalai, Tamil Nadu

Secunderabad

New Delhi

Ghaziabad

Whether the GST undermines the

federal structure of the
Constitution or not is an issue that
has been debated, and will perhaps
continue being debated, but we
cannot deny the fact that this
Constitutional Amendment Bill,
perhaps the biggest tax reform since
Independence, was the need of the
hour. If this Bill becomes an Act
which looks almost certain as of
now, though it still needs to be
ratified by the majority of the States
before being sent to the President
for his assent it will subsume a
series of indirect taxes under its
ambit, which could arguably alter

passed as money bills. Mr. Jaitley

hid behind the fact that there is
compliance with the Constitution,
but as Dr. Ambedkar himself said, it
is possible to comply with the
Constitution even while going
against its spirit, which has been
illustrated by the present
government in the passage of the
Aadhaar Bill.
Ashutosh,

It is heart-warming that the GST

Bill was passed with no nay votes
in the Rajya Sabha. But despite the
insistence of the Opposition, the
Finance Minister did not assure the
House that the Central GST Bill and
the Inter-State GST Bill will not be

Violence of technology
Societys overdependence on
technology and the related negative
impacts need to be accepted (The
everyday violence of technology,
August 4). It is true that there is loss

of creativity due to addiction to

technology. However, it cannot be
disputed that without the
advancement of technology, our
lives would come to a grinding halt.
The inability or refusal to remain
abreast of the rest of the world
pushes an individual far behind in
terms of employment and quality of
life. Technology is so pervasive that
we cannot keep gadgets away from
children too. The pros of
technology outweigh the cons.
V. Lakshmanan,
Tirupur, Tamil Nadu

The article is a wake-up call to

everyone, parents especially. It is
true that even when children meet
these days, they play games online
or watch movies instead of playing
together or talking with one
another. My generation had the
privilege of growing up in times
when television or theatre was the
only major time-stealer. We did not
miss out on reading or playing
outdoors. We should consciously
engage in activities with our
children so that they do not grow up
with their heads immersed in
technology, losing sensitivity
towards others and the ability to
care for them. Perhaps consciously
spending time everyday with a
family member, colleague, or friend
may be a small start in moving
towards building stronger
interpersonal relationships.
Anjitha Mathew,
Bengaluru
ND-ND