I"negate"the"resolution"which"states"resolved:"The"United"States"ought"to"

promote"democracy"in"the"Middle"East.

Framework
My"value"is"Utilitarianism,"maximizing"possible"benefits"while"minimizing"
harms."Prefer"utilitarianism"as"this"is"how"governing"bodies"were"created"
to"operate"and"the"resolution"is"a"questions"of"the"actions"of"the"United"
States"government.
David"Hume"Writes
Hume:")David)HUME,)Of)the)Original)Contract,)http://www.constitution.org/dh/origcont.htm

duties)are)such)as)are)not)supported)by)any)original)instinct)of)nature,)but)are"performed"entirely"from"a"
sense"of"obligation,"when"we"consider"the"necessities"of"human"society,)and)the)impossibility)
The)second)kind)of)moral)

of)supporting)it,)if)these)duties)were)neglected.)It)is)thus)justic)and)restrained)by)a)subsequent)judgment)or)observation.The)case)
ise,)or)a)regard)to)the)property)of)others,)fidelity,)or)the)observance)of)promises,)become)obligatory,)and)acquire)an)authority)over)
mankind.)For)as)it)is)evident)that)every)man)loves)himself)better)than)any)other)person,)he)is)naturally)impelled)to)extend)his)
acquisitions)as)much)as)possible;)and)nothing)can)restrain)him)in)this)propensity)but)reflection)and)experience,)by)which)he)learns)
the)pernicious)effects)of)that)license,)and)the)total)dissolution)of)society)which)must)ensue)from)it.)His)original)inclination,)therefore,)
or)instinct,)is)here)checked)precisely)the)same)with)the)political)or)civil)duty)of)allegiance)as)with)the)natural)duties)of)justice)and)
fidelity.)Our)primary)instincts)lead)us)either)to)indulge)ourselves)in)unlimited)freedom,)or)to)seek)dominion)over)others;)and)it)is)
reflection)only)which)engages)us)to)sacrifice)such)strong)passions)to)the)interests)of)peace)and)public)order.)A)small)degree)of)
experience)and)observation)suffices)to)teach)us,)that"society"cannot"possibly"be"maintained"without"the"

authority"of"magistrates,)and)that)this)authority)must)soon)fall)into)contempt)where)exact)obedience)is)not)paid)to)it.)The"observation"

of"these"general"and"obvious"interests"is"the"source"of"all"allegiance,"and"of"that"moral)
obligation"which"we"attribute"to"it.What)necessity,)therefore,)is)there)to)found)the)duty)of)allegiance)or)

obedience)to)magistrates)on)that)of)fidelity)or)a)regard)to)promises,)and)to)suppose,)that)))))))))))))))))m,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,it)is)the)consent)of)
each)individual)which)subjects)him)to)government,)when)it)appears)that)both)allegiance)and)fidelity)stand[s])precisely)on)the)same)
foundation,)and)are)both)submitted)to)by)mankind,)on)account)of)the)apparent)interests)and)necessities)of)human)society?)We)are)
bound)to)obey)our)sovereign,)it)is)said,)because)we)have)given)a)tacit)promise)to)that)purpose.)But)why)are)we)bound)to)observe)our)
promise?)It)must)here)be)asserted,)that)the)commerce)and)intercourse)of)mankind,)which)are)of)such)mighty)advantage,)can)have)
no)security)where)men)pay)no)regard)to)their)engagements.)In)like)manner,)may)it)be)said)that)men)could)not)live)at)all)in)society,)at)
least)in)a)civilized)society,)without)laws,)and)magistrates,)and)judges,)to)prevent)the)encroachments)of)the)strong)upon)the)weak,)of)
the)violent)upon)the)just)and)equitable."The"obligation"to"allegiance"being"of"like"force"and"authority"with"

the"obligation"to"fidelity,)we)gain)nothing)by)resolving)the)one)into)the)other.)The"general"interests"or"necessities"of"

society"are"sufficient"to"establish"both.

governments"have"a"specific"type"of"obligation"towards"citizens"interest"that"
limits"the"ability"for"them"to"adhere"to"abstract"idealist"philosophies.""Policies"
must"be"to"the"overall"advantage"of"society."Woller"an"economics"professor"at"
BYU"explains
Woller:"Gary,)Economics)Professor)at)BYU,)Policy)Currents,)June,)
http://apsapolicysection.org/vol7_2/72.pdf
Moreover,)virtually)all)public)policies)entail)some)redistribution)of)economic)or)political)resources,)such)that)one)group's)gains)must)come)at)another)group's)expense.)

public"policies)in)a)democracy)must"be"justified"to"the"public,)and)especially)to)those)who)pay)the)costs)of)those)policies.)
Such"justification"cannot"simply"be"assumed"a"priori"by"invoking"some"higherLorder"moral)
Consequently,)

principle.)Appeals)to)a1priori1moral)principles,)such)as)environmental)preservation,)also)of[)ten)fail)to)acknowledge)that)public"policies"inevitably"
entail"tradeLoffs"among"competing"values.)Thus)since)policymakers"cannot"justify"inherent"value"
conflicts"to"the"public)in)any)philosophical)sense,)and"since"public"policies)inherently)imply"winners"and"losers,"
the"policymakers'"duty"to"the"public"interest"requires"them"to"demonstrate"that"the)redistributive)
effects)and)value)tradeLoffs"implied"by"their"polices"are)somehow)to"the"overall"advantage"of"society.

Thus"my"criterion"is"maximizing"societal"welfare.
Contention"1:"Promoting"democracy"in"the"Middle"East"create"transition"
wars,"which"are"bad"for"both"the"U.S."and"the"Middle"East
Sheri)Berman"(07))(Columbia)University)political)science)Professor,)Lessons)from)Europe,)
Journal)of)Democracy)Volume)18,)Number)1)January)2007)

The"idea"that"a"gradual,"liberal"path"to"democracy"exists)and)that)it)makes)sense)to)
discourage)countries)that)do)not)follow)it)from)democratizing)is)a)chimera)based"on"a)misreading)or)
misinterpretation"of"history.)Although)such)a)path)is)certainly)attractive)in)theory,"there"are)in)
fact)very"few"cases"of"stable"and"wellLfunctioning"democracies"that"have"developed"in"
this"manner.)Indeed,)the"political"backstory"of"most"democracies"is"one"of)struggle,)
conflict,)and)even)violence.)Problems)and)even)failures)did)not)preclude)the)success)of)democracy;)in)retrospect,)problems)
and)failures)can)even)be)seen)as)integral)parts)of)the)long[term)processes)through)which)nondemocratic)institutions,)elites,)and)
cultures)are)delegitimized)and)eventually)eliminated,)and)their)democratic)successors)forged.)Many)contemporary)analysts)do)not)
seem)to)realize)this)because)of)a)lack)of)historical)perspective:)They)often)ignore)or)misread)the)frequently)messy)and)unattractive)
manner)in)which)the)current)crop)of)stable)democracies)actually)developed.)It)should)hardly)surprise)us)that)many"young"

democracies"today"are"proving"to"be)weak,)ineffectual,)illiberal,)and)often)little)more)than)[End)
Page)38]"arenas"for)extraparliamentary)and)even)violent"contestation.)Many)countries')first)or)early)experiments)with)

democracy)were)not)smooth,)so)why)should)today's)fledglings)be)that)different?)If)it)took)Francethe)birthplace)of)modern)European)democracymore)than)150)years)and)
significant)amounts)of)violence)to)achieve)a)set)of)stable)and)successful)democratic)institutions,)why)should)democracy)be)expected)to)consolidate)itself)in)many)other)parts)of)
the)world)within)just)a)few)years?)As)was)the)case)in)France)and)in)other)parts)of)Western)Europe,)such)failed)experiments)might)well)turn)out)to)be)crucial)parts)of)long[term)
processes)involving)cultural)learning)and)institution)buildingprocesses)that)eventually)allow)democratic)governance)to)emerge)and)flourish.)

Transitions"to"democracy"lead"to"war
Manfield"and"Snyder"2
Edward)D.)Mansfield,)Hum)Rosen)Professor)of)Political)Science)and)Co[Director)of)the)
Christopher)H.)Browne)Center)for)International)Politics)at)the)University)of)Pennsylvania,)and)
Jack)Snyder,)Robert)and)Renee)Belfer)Professor)of)International)Relations)at)Columbia)
University,)Spring)2002,)International)Organization
In)previous)research,)we)reported)that)states"undergoing"democratic"transitions"were"substantially"

more"likely"to"participate"in"external"wars"than"were)states"whose"regimes"remained"
unchanged)or)changed)in)an)autocratic)direction.)6)We)argued)that)elites"in)newly)democratizing"states)often)
use"nationalist"appeals"to"attract"mass"support)without)submitting)to)full)democratic)accountability)and)
that)the)institutional"weakness)of)transitional)states)creates"the"opportunity"for"such"warL
causing"strategies"to"succeed.)However,)these)earlier)studies)did)not)fully)address)the)circumstances)under)which)

transitions)are)most)likely)to)precipitate)war,)and)they)did)not)take)into)account)various)important)causes)of)war.)Equally,)some)
critics)worried)that)the)time)periods)over)which)we)measured)the)effects)of)democratization)were)sometimes)so)long)that)events)
occurring)at)the)beginning)of)a)period)would)be)unlikely)to)influence)foreign)policy)at)its)end.)7)Employing"a"more"

refined"research"design"than"in"our"prior"work,)we)aim)here)to)identify)more)precisely)the)conditions)under)
which)democratization)stimulates)hostilities.)We"find"that)the)heightened"danger"of"war"grows"
primarily"out"of"the"transition"from"an"autocratic"regime"to"one"that"is"partly"
democratic.)The)specter)of)war)during)this)phase)of)democratization)looms)especially)large)when)governmental)institutions,)
including)those)regulating)political)participation,)are)especially)weak.)Under)these)conditions,)elites"commonly)employ"
nationalist"rhetoric"to"mobilize"mass"support"but"then"become"drawn"into)the)
belligerent"foreign"policies"unleashed"by"this)process.)We)find,)in)contrast,)that)transitions)that)quickly)
culminate)in)a)fully)coherent)democracy)are)much)less)perilous.)8)Further,)our)results)refute)the)view)that)transitional)democracies)
are)simply)inviting)targets)of)attack)because)of)their)temporary)weakness.)In)fact,)they)tend)to)be)the)initiators)of)war.)We)also)
refute)the)view)that)any)regime)change)is)likely)to)precipitate)the)outbreak)of)war.)We)find)that)transitions"toward"

democracy"are"significantly"more"likely"to"generate"hostilities"than"transitions"toward"
autocracy.
Instability"caused"by"war"in"the"Middle"East"would"cause"an"increase"in"terrorism
Krieger,Tim"(and)"Meierrieks,Daniel.)What)causes)terrorism?.2011.)

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel_Meierrieks/publication/258833074_What_causes_terrorism/links/550048ca0cf28e4a
c347f25a.pdf).DA=2/18/16)[JK)

Political)transformation)and)instability)are)(is))also)named"as"(a)"causes)of"terrorism,)in)particular)in)
popular)discourse.)The)main)idea)is)that)political"change)may)create(s)"political"vacuums"which"
terrorist"groups"use"to"push"their"agendas.)Such)vacuums)are)attractive)as)radical"groups"are"less"
likely"to"be"challenged"by"an"instable,)thus)weak)government)(e.g.,)measured)by)a)regime)stability)
variable),)making)terrorism)a)less)costly)venture.)Also,)an)individual(s))may)find"it"more"attractive"to"join)or)
support)a"radical"organization"because"there"are"few"nonLviolent"alternatives)(meaning)low"
opportunity"costs"of"violence))but"high"payoffs"from"terrorist"success)(meaning)increased)
benefits)of)violence).)Instable"or"failed"states)may)even)serve"as"schools"of"international"
terrorism,)where)in)phases)of)domestic)instability)(e.g.,)civil)war))individuals"gain"an"education"in"
violence)that)they)can)also)use(d)"for"internationalized"terrorist"campaigns)(Campos)and)Gassebner)
2009).)Political)transformation)may)generally)amplify)terrorist)behavior,)where)this)process)influences)both)the)production)of)
terrorism)and)terrorists)target)decisions.

International"terrorism"is"a"threat"to"national"security,"link"this"to"the"
framework"through"negative"impacts"towards"a"goal"of"societal"welfare.
Contention"2:"Specifically"the"Middle"East"is"opposed"to"American"
democracy."
Layne"07)Christopher,)Professor)@)TX)A&M,)American)Empire:)A)Debate,)pg.)95
Simply)put,"American"efforts"to"export"democracy"easily"may"backfire.))Why?)Because)illLliberal"

democracies)usually)are"unstable"and)often)adopt"ultranationalist)and)bellicose)external"
policies."')As)Edward)D.)Mansfield)and)Jack)Snyder)have)pointed)out,)"Pushing"countries)too)soon)into)

competitive)electoral"politics)not)only)risks)stoking)war,)sectarianism)and)terrorism,)but)it)also)makes"the"future)
consolidation)of"democracy"more"difficult."144)Far)from)leading)to)the)touted)(but)illusory))"democratic)peace")that)is)

so)near)and)dear)to)the)hearts)of)American)imperialists,)"unleashing"Islamic"mass"opinion"through"sudden"

democratization"might"raise"the"likelihood"of"war."145)More[)over,)in)a)volatile)region)like)the"
Middle"East,)it)is)anything"but"a"sure"bet"that)newly)democratic"regimes[which,)by)definition)would)
be)sensitive)to)public)opinion[would"align"themselves"with"the"United"States.)And,)if"new"
democracies)in)the)region)should"fail"to"satisfy)the)political)and)economic)aspirations)of)their"citizensL
precisely"the"kind"of"failure"to"which"new"democracies"are"prone))they)easily)could"
become"a"far"more"dangerous"breeding"ground"for"terrorism)than)are)the)authoritarian)(or)
autocratic/theocratic))regimes)now)in)power)in)the)Middle)East.

And,"Islamic"opinion"of"the"United"States"thwarts"attempts"at"democracy
Mansfield"and"Snyder"5""Professor)of)Political)Science)@)Penn,)Professor)of)International)
Relations)@)Columbia,)Electing)to)Fight,)pg.)13
Although)democratization)in)the)Islamic)world)might)contribute)to)peace)in)the)very)long)run,)Islamic"public"opinion)in)
the)short)run)is,)in"most"places,)hostile"to"the"United"States,)reluctant"to"condemn"terrorism,"

and"supportive"of"forceful"measures)to)achieve)favorable)results)in)Palestine,)Kashmir,)and)other)disputed)areas.)

Although)much)of)the)belligerence)of)the)Islamic)public)is)fueled)by)resentment)of)the)U.S.[backed)authoritarian)regimes)under)
which)many)of)them)live,)simply)renouncing)these)authoritarians)and)pressing)for)a)quick)democratic)opening)is)unlikely)to)lead)to)
peaceful)democratic)consolidations.)On)the)contrary,)unleashing"Islamic"mass"opinion"through"a"

sudden"democratization"could)only)raise"the"likelihood"of"war.)All)of)the)risk)factors)are)there:"the"
media)and)civil)society)groups)are)(is)"inflammatory,)as)old)elites)and)rising)oppositions)try)to)claim)the)mantle)of)Islamic)or)
nationalist)militancy.)The"rule"of"law"is"weak,"and"existing)corrupt)bureaucracies"cannot"serve"a"
democratic"administration"properly.)The)boundaries)of)states)are)mismatched)with)those)of)nations,)making)any)
push)for)national)self[determination)fraught)with)peril.)

Contention"3:"Promoting"democracy"is"damaging"to"the"United"States"
Interests
Bensahel"4"Prepared)for)the)Air)Force,)Fellow)@)the)Rand)Corporation,)Professor)of)Political)
Science,)The)Future)Security)Environment)in)the)Middle)East

New"leaders"may"be"weaker"and"less"likely"to"cooperate"with"the"United"States.))Since)
1997,)new)leaders)have)come)to)power)in)Iran,)Algeria,)Bahrain,)Jordan,)Morocco,)and)Syria.))Further)leadership)changes)are)
expected)in)Saudi)Arabia)and)Egypt)in)the)near)future.))Incoming"leaders"will"need)to)concentrate)on)building)

popular"support"for"their"regimes.))They)may)therefore)be)less"willing"to)continue)unpopular)
policies)such)as)cooperat(e)ing)with"the"U.S."war"on"terrorism)or)supporting)Arab)concessions)to)Israel)in)
future)peace)negotiations.))Furthermore,)inexperienced"leaders"will"be"more"likely"to"make"mistakes"
in"foreign"policy,)whether)by)overestimating)their)countries)military)strength,)by)believing)that)they)can)intimidate)their)

adversaries,)or)by)trusting)in)international)support)that)proves)to)be)unreli[)able.))These"political"miscalculations"could"

lead"to"increased""tensions"between"states.