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# IJRET: International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology

## RISK ASSESSMENT OF A HYDROELECTRIC DAM WITH PARALLEL

REDUNDANT TURBINE
Reena Garg
ABSTRACT
This paper deals with the risk assessment of a hydroelectric dam. Hydroelectric dam produces electric power with the help of
water collected in a pond. Here, in this paper, the author has been taken one parallel redundant turbine to improve systems
overall performance. On failure of any one turbine, the whole system works in reduced efficiency state. The whole system can fail
due to failure of any of its subsystems. All failures follow exponential time distribution whereas all repairs follow general time
distribution. In order to risk assessment of the system, we have obtained reliability function, M.T.T.F. and availability function for
considered system. A particular case, when all repairs follow exponential time distribution, and long-run behavior of system have
also been computed to improve practical utility of the model. Graphical illustration followed by a numerical computation has also
been appended at the end to highlight important results of present study.

Key Words: Reliability, Mean time to failure, exponential time distribution, Inclusion of supplementary variables etc.
----------------------------------------------------------------***------------------------------------------------------------------------1. INTRODUCTION

2. ASSUMPTIONS

The whole system consists of five major parts and these are
named here as:
(i) Subsystem A :
Reservoir, intake gate
(ii) Subsystem B :
Penstock
(iii) Subsystem C :
Turbine
(iv) Subsystem D :
Generator
(v) Subsystem E :
Power house.
The system has been shown in fig -1(a). The subsystem A
takes the water and sends it to subsystem B (Penstock). By
the movement of this water, we rotate the turbine and by
rotation of turbine, generator produces electricity. The so
produced electric power can be stored at power house and
also can further distribute to various territories.
Since, the system under consideration in Non-Markovian,
the author has used supplementary variables to formulate
mathematical model of the system. This model has been
solved further by taking help of Laplace transform.

## This paper is based on following assumptions:

(1) Initially the whole system is good and operable.
(2) After failure, repair facilities can be provided
immediately.
(3)All failures follow exponential time distribution and are
S-independent.
(4) All repairs follow general time distribution and are
perfect.
(5) Nothing can fail from a failed state.
(6) On failure of any one turbine (subsystem C), the whole
system works in reduced efficiency

x

1 x

etc.

:
:

3,3 u

P0 t

## Failure rates of subsystems A, B, C, D and E respectively.

First order probability that subsystem A can be repaired in the time interval
x, x , conditioned that it was not repaired upto time x.
First order probability that both the units of subsystem C can be repaired in
the time interval u, u , conditioned that they were not repaired upto
time u.
Pr {at time t, whole system is operable}.

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295

## IJRET: International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology

P1 x, t etc

P3 z, t

Pr {at time t, system is failed due to failure of subsystem A}. Elapsed repair
time lies within x, x .
Pr {at time t, system is degraded due to failure of any one component of
subsystem C}. Elapsed repair time lies within z, z .

P3,1 x, t etc

## Pr{at time t, system is failed due to failure of subsystem A while one

component of subsystem C has already failed}. Elapsed repair time of
subsystem A lies within x, x .

Ps

M.T.T.F.

:
:

Si j

Di ( j )

## i ( j ) exp . i ( j )dj , i and j .

1 S ( j)/ j,

i and j .

P2 2 ( y, t )2 ( y)

P4 (m, t )

P0 (t )

4 (m)

P1 ( x, t )

1 ( x)
h1
h (k )

5 (n)

Ph (k , t )
P5 (n, t )

3 ( z )

h2

P3 ( z, t )

P3, 2 ( y, t )

2 ( y)

1 ( x)
5 (n)

3,3 (u )

P3,1 ( x, t )

P3,5 (n, t )

P3,3 (u, t )

4 (m)

P3, 4 (m, t )
Fig-1(b): Transition-state diagram

States:

Failed
Good
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296

## eISSN: 2319-1163 | pISSN: 2321-7308

4. FORMULATIONOFMATHEMATICAL MODEL
Using continuity argument and limiting procedure, we obtain the following set of difference-differential equations, governing the
behaviour of considered system, discrete in space and continuous in time:

(1)
5

dt i h1 P0 t P1 x, t 1 x dx P2 y, t 2 y dy P3 z, t 3 z dz
i 1

0
0
0

## j t i ( j ) Pi ( j, t ) 0 , i 1,2,4,5 and j x, y, m, n respectively.

z t i h2 3 ( z ) P3 ( z, t ) 0
i 1

## u t 3,3 (u ) P3,3 (u, t ) 0

k t h (k ) Ph (k , t ) 0
Boundary conditions are:
Pi (0, t ) i P0 (t ) ,i = 1, 2, 4 and 5

(3)

(4)
(5)
(6)

(7)

0

(2)

(8)

## P3, 4 m, t 4 mdm P3,5 n, t 5 n dn

P3,i (0, t ) i P3 (t )

, i = 1, 2, 4 and 5

(9)

P3,3 (0, t ) 3 P3 (t )

(10)

Ph (0, t ) h1 P0 (t ) h2 P3 (t )

(11)

## Initial conditions are:

P0 (0) 1 , otherwise zero.

(12)

## 5. SOLUTION OF THE MODEL

Taking Laplace transforms of equations (1) through (11) subjected to initial conditions (12) and then on solving them one by one,
we obtain the following probabilities of states depicted in fig-1(b):

1
B( s)
D ( s)
P i ( s) i i
for i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
B( s )
A( s)
P 3 ( s)
B( s)
A( s) Di ( s)
P 3, i ( s) i
for i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
B( s )
P 0 ( s)

(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)

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297

P 3,3 ( s)

## eISSN: 2319-1163 | pISSN: 2321-7308

3 A( s) D3,3 ( s)

(17)

B( s )

1
h1 h2 A(s)Dh (s)
B( s )
5

3 D3 s i h2
i 1

where, A( s )
5
5

1 i S i ( s) 3 S 3 ( s ) D3 s i h2
i 1
i 1

P h ( s)

(18)

(19)

and

## h1 h2 A(s)S h (s) 3 A(s)S 3,3 (s)

(20)

3 A( s) 1 S 1 ( s) 2 S 2 ( s) 4 S 4 ( s) 5 S 5 ( s) S 3 s i h2
i 1

## It is worth noticing that

Sum of equations (13) through (18) =

1
s

(21)

## 6.LONG-RUN BEHAVIOR OF CONSIDERED SYSTEM:

Using final value theorem of Laplace transform, viz.,

## Lim P t Lim s Ps P (say), provided limit on left exists, we

t

s 0

obtain the following long-run behaviour of considered system from equations (13) through (18):
(22)

1
B (0)
M
Pi i i ;for i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
B(0)
A(0)
P3
B(0)
P0

P3,i

i A(0) M i

(23)
(24)

(25)
;for i = 1, 2, 4 and 5

B (0)
A(0) M 3,3
P3,3 3
B(0)
1
h1 h2 A(0)M h
Ph
B (0)

(26)
(27)

3 1 S 3 i h2

i 1

5
5

3 h2 i 3 S 3 i h2
i 1
i 1

B (0) B( s)
ds
s 0

th
and M i S i (0) Mean time to repair i failure.
where,

A(0)

(28)

(29)
(30)

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## eISSN: 2319-1163 | pISSN: 2321-7308

7. PARTICULAR CASE:
When all repairs follow exponential time distribution
In this case, setting

S i j

j i ,

for all i and j, in equations (13) through (18), we obtain the following L.T. of

## different state probabilities of fig-1(b):

P 0 ( s)

1
E ( s)

P i ( s)

(31)

E ( s)s i
F ( s)
P 3 ( s)
E ( s)
i F ( s)
P 3,i ( s)
;
E ( s)s i
3 F ( s)
P 3,3 ( s)
E ( s)(s 3,3 )
and

P h ( s)

where,

For i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
(32)
(33)
For i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
(34)

(35)

1
h1 h2 F (s) 1
E ( s)
(s h )

F (s)

(36)

3
5

5
s i h2 3 i i 3 3
i 1

i 1 s i s 3

(37)

5
1
2
4
s 1

3 h1
s 1 s 2 s 4 s 5
3 F ( s) 3,3
h
h1 h2 F ( s)

s h
s 3,3

and E ( s)

3 F ( s) 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 5
5
s 1 s 2 s 4 s 5 s h

i 2 3
i 1

(38)

## 8. RELIABILITY AND M.T.T.F. EVALUATION:

Form equation (13), we obtain the L.T. of reliability function
5

R( s) s i h2
i 1

i 1

## Also, M .T .T .F . R(t )dt

0

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299

1
5

i 1

(40)

h1

## 9. AVAILABILITY OF CONSIDERED SYSTEM:

Availability of considered system can be obtained from equations (13) and (15) as:

3
1

P up ( s )
1

5
5

s i h1 s i h2
i 1
i 1

takinginverseLaplacetransform,we

5
5

3
3

1
exp
.

h
t

exp
.

i h2 t (41)

i
1

h2 h1

h2 h1
i 1
i 1
Also, Pdown (t ) 1 Pup (t ) (42)
obta Pup (t )

## 10. NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATION:

For a numerical illustration we consider the values:

3.44

008
, h2 0.009
3.4
M.T.T.F. ---->

## and t 0,1,2, 10. Using these values in equations

(39), (40) and (41), we draw the graphs shown in fig-2, 3
and 4 respectively.

## 11. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:

A critical examination of graphs, shown in fig-2, 3 and 4,
yields that reliability and availability of considered system
decreases smoothly with the increase in values of time t. It
should be noted that there are no sudden jumps in the values
of R(t ) and Pup (t ) . Also M.T.T.F. of considered system

3.38
3.36
3.34
3.32
3.3
3.28
3.26
3.24
0

0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.01
h1---->

## Fig-2: Reliability Vs TimeFig-3:MTTF Vs Human Error

Availability Vs time

## decreases catastrophically in the beginning but thereafter it

decreases approximately in constant manner.

1.2

Pup(t) ---->

Reliability Vs Time

0.8
0.6
0.4

1.2

0.2

R(t) ---->

0.8

10

11

t ---->

0.6

0.4
0.2

REFERENCES

0
1

6
t ---->

10

11

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