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ELISSE

European Lubricants Information Statistical Service

Contents
1 EuropaLub explained

What is EuropaLub?
Market Summary and ELISSE
Key questions, for policy makers and marketers
Market Summary Volume
Outlook

EuropaLub coverage

2 Methodology
3 Key findings

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Explanatory factors
European summary
Country example Austria
Contrast Germany .....
..... To Greece

4 Market size

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Per capita consumption


Per capita consumption 2004-2014

5 Trends
6 Conclusions and outlook
7 And finally ...

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1 EuropaLub explained
What is EuropaLub?
The European Lubricants industry has
lacked reliable consumption statistics for
several years.
The data provided by EuropaLub is an
invaluable resource, which provides
important insight into the continuing
developments in the European lubricants
market.
EuropaLub is a pan-European project
EuropaLub is a not-for-profit organisation
Membership
CSNIL, GAIL, UFIP, UKLA, UP, UNITI, VSN, VSS, UEIL

Supported by UEIL and Blaser

1 EuropaLub explained
Market Summary
The Market Summary is a printed
brochure.
It provides both market commentary and
concise infographics for the industrial and
automotive sectors of lubricants markets
from thirteen countries over the latest ten
year period, currently between 2004 and
2014.
Additional background data (population,
GDP, etc) is also included in the Market
Summary for a total of 30 countries,
including the thirteen mentioned above.
Details for all seven lubricant categories
are listed at the back.

ELISSE
Licenses will be made available for
combinations of any of the following
packages of data:
By geographic region (Northern, Southern
and Emerging European markets)
By time period (past 5, 10 and 20 years)
By 7 categories of lubricant:
- Engine Oils
- Gear Oils and Transmissions
- Greases
- Metalworking Oils
- Highly Refined Oils
- Other Oils
- Process Oils

1 EuropaLub explained
Key questions, for policy makers and marketers 1

Market Summary Volume


The core 13 European Lubricant markets have fallen
on average by 21% since 2004.
Volumes for the key group of markets fell from 4.93
million tonnes in 2004 to 3.9m in 2014.

This is despite an increase in population from 415 to


431 million people and GDP growth.
Overall consumption per capita has reduced by 24%.
Given that these countries account for close to 85% of
the European market, of the total market for 30
countries it is estimated to have fallen from 5.9m to
4.6m tonnes.
These summaries obscure several key stories:
2004 to prior to the financial crisis
Post financial crisis
German market performance
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1 EuropaLub explained
Key questions, for policy makers and marketers 2

Outlook
The Eurozone has suffered a prolonged period of
economic slowdown. Recovery is beginning to
emerge in some of the peripheral countries that
suffered worst in the downturn.
There is a slight upturn in the overall figures in 2014
compared with 2013.
We can reasonably expect the ongoing developments
in lubricants performance will lead to a continuous
2% pa reductions in volumes. This will hide a
considerable variation in performance, between
countries.
Europe is leading the world in tightening
environmental restrictions which, while it adds costs
to the lubricants industry, is creating the pressure on
the key Automotive OEMs to improve the
performance of their vehicles.
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1 EuropaLub explained
EuropaLub coverage Currently

2014 European Overview


13 countries
Market Summary commentary for each
country

1 EuropaLub explained
EuropaLub coverage 2015 Plan

Expand to 30 countries
Expand to 7 categories
Subset details for 14 categories

2 Methodology
Market statistics collection and collation
Market statistics collected and collated from 6 core countries
Data from 7 other countries estimated based on algorithms*
Estimates have been arrived by examining the 3 key factors,
Population, GDP, number of vehicles in use
Key independent variables (in algorithm) Outcome = LUBRICANTS DOMESTIC SALES

GDP
Results Goodness of fit = 0.995 (out of 1.000)
Industrial Production Index (IPI)
Very close results from modelling
Energy consumption in transport (TRA)
Manufacturing share of total value added (MAN_VA)
Several factors considered and rejected as not improving results

* These estimates were provided by leading


economic statistics service AIEE (an unbiased
independent consulting organisation,
specialising in energy economics, for national
and international organisations) together with
supplementary data such as GDP and
population figures.
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3 Key findings
Explanatory factors
The key factors are picked up by several of the
national market reports.
Falling per capita consumption is a reflection of the
success story of the lubricants industry in
improving performance.
The progressive introduction of synthetic oils with
longer drain intervals has reduced demand for
Automotive engine oils.
Many drivelines are now filled for life. This is
reflected in increasing percentages of Industrial
and other oils in many markets.
The German success story is underlined in the
sustained growth of the Process oils (available in
the more detailed data sets) which represent over
30% of that market!
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3 Key findings
European summary
Population 430m
growth of 20m people in 10 years up by 4%

GDP up 9.5%
Steady increase in vehicles; and journeys travelled

Lubricants Consumption in 13 countries 4m


Fell 21% over 10 years
Per capita consumption down 24%

Estimated lubes consumption for 30 countries


4.6m tons, down from 5.9m tons
Automotive: 39%
Industrial & Other: 61%

Are EU Policies working?


Success by the lubes industry?

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3 Key findings
Country example Austria
Lubricants Consumption: 60k tons
Fell 18% over 10 years
Per capita consumption down 27%

Automotive: 52%
Industrial & Other: 48%
Marked contrast to Germany!

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3 Key findings
Contrast Germany .....
Declining population
Strong GDP growth
Recovery post 2009

Lubricants Consumption 1090k tons


Increased 8% over 10 years
Per capita consumption increased!

Automotive: 32%
Industrial & Other: 68%
Now 28% of core European market

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3 Key findings
..... To Greece
Declining population
GDP shrinkage down by 25%

Lubricants Consumption
Down over 50% in 10 years
Per capita consumption: halved from
8l/head/pa to just 4l/head/pa

Automotive: 70%
Industrial & Other: 30%

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4 Market size
Per capita consumption
Consumption per head - Litres/Capita pa
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

To find out which country is which,


you need to purchase ELISSE
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4 Market size
Per capita consumption 2004-2014
Mean per capita consumption fell by 24%

Germany completely divergent


increased: 12.1 to 13.5

Per capita Consumption -2004-2014


Germany vs 12 Countries

(growth in Process oils)

16.0

12 Excl De:
Down 32%!! in decade
11.9 to 8.0

Raises policy questions......

14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Germany

13 excl De
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5 Trends
Part 1
From 2004 to 2008, prior to the impact of the
financial crisis, European GDP grew strongly by 9%
supported by low interest rates for the peripheral
countries and the impact of the development of
emerging Eastern markets.
Only in 2014 did the region regain the same level of
GDP. Even during this early period, lubricant
demand slipped behind GDP growth. Average
demand (excluding Germany) slid by 2-3% per year.
Despite a 2% fall in population, the German market
has outperformed across the period reflecting the
success of the German industrial base, prior to
2007 and post 2010.

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5 Trends
Part 2
From 2004-2007, lubricants demand in Germany
bucked the general European trend and grew at
slightly over 1% pa so that at the end of 2007,
lubricants demand was up 7%. Only to fall by over
20% the following year, as the capital goods cycle
ended and the financial crisis impacted markets.
Post crisis, the German market has recovered
sharply. By the end of 2014 it had stabilised and
unlike other territories recovered to the 2004 level.
Remarkably per capita consumption has actually
risen over the period.
Across the rest of Europe the pattern of recovery
has been very different. Population has risen by
5.4% but the core lubricants markets are 27% down
on the 2004 figure. In contrast to Germany, the per
capita consumption is down 31%.
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6 Conclusions and outlook


General market trend in 2-3% shrinkage pa
Except where engineering intensity is high

European environmental policy is working


As indicated by falling automotive consumption

Shift towards important Industrial and Other lubricants


Still growing

Europe remains a vital global market in the global context


Continued growth in Germany provided the Euro subsidy persists!
Some recovery in the periphery being seen in Spain, Italy and Ireland

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7 And finally ...


Market Summary 2015 Issue 1
Available NOW!! Price 98

ELISSE

Electronic licensing terms available


Subscription service: 200 10,000
5 year/ 10 year/ 20 data sets
Full or partial categories

Special terms for Members of


EuropaLub related organisations eg
CSNIL, UKLA, UNITI, UEIL, etc
Contact Suzy at Lube Magazine:
lube@ukla.org.uk
12 Oct 2015

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