THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

MINISTRY OF WORK, TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION

TANZANIA METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR TANZANIA

OCTOBER DECEMBER, 2016 VULI RAINFALL SEASON
Highlights for October December, 2016 Vuli rainfall Season
This statement gives evolution of the climate systems and outlook for the October to December 2016 rainfall
season, advisories and early warnings to various weather sensitive sectors such as Agriculture and food security,
Livestock and wildlife, Natural Resources and Tourism, Energy and water, Local Authorities, Health and Disaster
Management. The Outlook for October to December 2016 Vuli rainfall season and expected impacts are as
follows: a) Outlook for October to December 2016 Vuli rainfall season:
For the period of October to December, 2016, suppressed rains is more likely to happen over most areas of
the country, while sufficient rainfall is expected over few areas of the Lake Victoria basin and the Southern
parts of the country.
Onset of the short rainfall season (Vuli) is expected to delay over most areas during the season.
Commencing first over the Lake Victoria basin and few areas of northern coast in the month of October 2016.
b) Expected Impacts
Soil moisture levels are likely to be suppressed due to expected frequent dry spells and this may affect
normal cropping season over much of the country.
River flow discharges and water levels in rivers and dams are likely to be reduced from their current levels
during the Vuli, 2016 season due to shortage of rains in most river catchment areas.
Expected occurrence of Short periods of heavy rains in few areas may cause excessive surface runoff and
elevate flood risks particularly for areas with exposed soil surface.
Outbreak of water borne diseases due to water shortage and poor sewage management are likely to occur.

Increase of the likelihood of insufficient pasture in most areas of the pastorals and agro-pastorals, drying
of livestock water infrastructures such as charcoal dams and bore holes are expected.

(I)

SEASONAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK 2016

Based on current and expected climate systems (in section II of this document), there is an
elevated risk for rainfall deficit and poor distribution during the October to December 2016
rainfall season. Periods of suppressed rains are likely particularly over the Northern coast and
Northeastern highlands. Details of the rainfall season are as follows:

Short Rainfall Season (Vuli) over Bimodal areas

The October to December 2016 (OND) short rainfall season (Vuli) is more significant for the
Bimodal areas that include Northeastern Highlands, Northern coast, Lake Victoria Basin and
Northern parts of Kigoma region. The October to December 2016 rains are expected to be
normal to below normal over the Lake Victoria Basin and below normal-to-normal over
Northern coast and Northeastern Highlands.
The onset of the short rainfall season (Vuli) 2016 is expected to commence late over most areas
in the October to December rainfall season. Dry spells are more likely to dominate over most
areas particularly during the months of October and November 2016.
1.1 Lake Victoria Basin: (Kagera, Mara, Mwanza, Geita, Simiyu and Shinyanga regions):
Rains in these regions are expected to start on the first week of October 2016 over Kagera
region then spread to Mwanza, Geita, Mara Simiyu and Shinyanga regions by the third week of
October 2016. The rains are expected to be normal to below normal over some parts of Kagera,
Mwanza, and Geita regions and mainly below normal over Simiyu and Shinyanga regions.
1.2 Northern Coast areas and its Hinterlands: (Dar es Salaam, Tanga, and Coast regions,
Islands of Unguja and Pemba and northern Morogoro areas):
Rains are expected to commence in the third week of October 2016 over Tanga region and then
spread to Dar es Salaam, Zanzibar and Morogoro regions during the fourth week of October
2016. The rains are expected to be below normal to normal. Periods of relatively long dry spells
are likely to occur over most areas particularly during the months of October and November
2016.

Prepared by
Tanzania Meteorological Agency, P.O. Box 3056 Dar es Salaam, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Tel. 255 (0) 22 2460706-8 ; Fax: 255 - (0) 22 2460735 E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz

1.3 North-Eastern Highlands: (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions):

Rains are expected to start in the third week of November 2016 and are expected to be below
normal-to-normal over most areas.

Seasonal Rainfall (November to April) over Unimodal areas:

Seasonal rains are more significant for unimodal areas (Western, Central, Southwestern
Highlands, Southern region and Southern Coast).

Rainfall Over these areas are expected to

start late over most areas and are expected to be below normal to normal over most parts
except for the southern coast (Mtwara region and some parts of Lindi region) and Ruvuma
region where normal rains are likely to occur.
2.1 Western areas: (Tabora, Rukwa, Katavi and Kigoma regions):
The rains are expected to start earlier during the fourth week of October, 2016 over Kigoma,
Rukwa and Katavi regions and then spread to Tabora region on the third week of November,
2016 and the overall performance is expected to be below normal to normal.
2.2 Central areas (Singida and Dodoma regions):
The rains are expected to start during the second week of December 2016 and are expected to
be below normal to normal over most parts of the region.
2.3 Southwestern highlands: (Mbeya, Iringa, and Njombe regions and southern Morogoro
areas):
The rains are expected to start during the second week of December 2016 and are expected to
be below normal to normal over most parts of the region.

Prepared by
Tanzania Meteorological Agency, P.O. Box 3056 Dar es Salaam, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Tel. 255 (0) 22 2460706-8 ; Fax: 255 - (0) 22 2460735 E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz

2.4 Southern Region and Southern Coast: (Ruvuma, Mtwara and Lindi regions):
The rains are expected to start during the second week of December 2016, and are expected to
be below normal-to-normal over most parts except for Mtwara, south of Lindi and some parts
of extreme South-East of Ruvuma regions.
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2016

LONG TERM MEAN RAINFALL (mm)

Figure 1 Rainfall Normal Maps right: Climatological long term average rainfall for October to
December; left: Outlook for the coming rainfall season October to December 2016

It should be noted that events of short duration of heavy rainfall might feature even over
area of normal and below normal rainfall conditions.

(II)

CLIMATE SYSTEMS OUTLOOK

The observed cooling over Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to persist through midDecember 2016. As a whole the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system shows a
leaning towards La Nia particularly for the months of October to November 2016. Cool to
neutral sea surface temperature prevails over Western Indian Ocean (East African coast) while
warming is dominant over the Eastern Indian Ocean (Indonesia). The predicted Sea Surface
Temperature over the Indian Ocean imply weak easterly wind flow with likelihood of
suppressed moisture towards East African coast. Warming over South-east Atlantic Ocean near
Angola coast particularly during the months of October to December 2016 is likely to suppress
Prepared by
Tanzania Meteorological Agency, P.O. Box 3056 Dar es Salaam, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Tel. 255 (0) 22 2460706-8 ; Fax: 255 - (0) 22 2460735 E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz

westerly wind flow from Congo Basin towards the country resulting into less moisture influx
into the country. Neutral conditions across the Southwestern Indian Ocean during the months
of October and December 2016 are likely to suppress occurrence and contribution of tropical
cyclones during the season. A Weak La Nia and Cooling ocean temperatures in the Indian
ocean indicates that less humid air masses are likely to occur over the country during much of
the October to December 2016 and may result into suppressed rainfall season (As indicated in
section I of this document).

(III)

LIKELY IMPACTS AND ADVISORY

Agriculture and food Security

Based on the October- December (Vuli Season) rainfall, most parts of the country are expected
to experience below normal rains associated with late onset. These conditions are likely to
result in inadequate moisture, which could adversely impact crop productions and pastures for
livestock. Farmers are advised to prepare their farms and acquire agricultural inputs early
enough while making appropriate land use management and right choice of crop varieties. Also
farmers are advised to store and plan proper use of available yield so as to sustain their
household incase of shortage.
Pasture and Water for Livestock and wildlife
The forecasted below normal to normal rainfall condition over most parts of the country during
the Vuli season 2016 are anticipated to be characterized by episodes of delayed start of the rain
season and intermittent dry spells during the season. These events increase the likelihood of
insufficient pasture in most areas of the pastorals and agro-pastorals, drying of livestock water
infrastructures such as charcoal dams and bore holes, subsequent outbreak of livestock
diseases and increase of Intercommunal conflict between water users, pastorals and agropastorals. Pastoralists in those areas are advised to store enough animal feeds for use during
the dry season, to harvest their livestock earlier when they still have good condition and
encouraged to keep livestock according to the grazing areas capacity. Due to high likelihood of
disease outbreak, regular dipping and vaccination against pests and diseases are highly
Prepared by
Tanzania Meteorological Agency, P.O. Box 3056 Dar es Salaam, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Tel. 255 (0) 22 2460706-8 ; Fax: 255 - (0) 22 2460735 E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz

recommended. Wildlife-human conflicts due to wildlife migration to farmlands in search for

pasture are likely to be higher during the season especially over the areas where below normal
rains are expected. Wildlife management authorities and communities living closer to wildlife
areas are advised to take necessary precautions. Since larger part of the country expect to
receive below normal rains shortage of pastures for wild animals is likely to occur, so
alternative measures need to be taken to reduce the impacts.

Natural Resources and Tourism

Natural resource management and Tourism Authorities are encouraged to protect
infrastructure such as roads and bridges against damage from heavy and short period of rains,
which may feature during the season in the National Parks and Game Reserve areas.

Energy and water

As most of the dams are located over areas where below normal rains are expected, shortage
of water in the hydro power plants reservoirs are expected, so current available water in the
dams have to be used sparingly. The expected likelihood of decrease of water levels in rivers
and lakes may cause conflict among the water users. In this regard, necessary mitigation
measures such as water harvesting and storage practices are highly recommended.
Local Authorities
Due to the fact that even in below normal rainfall areas, short periods of heavy rains are also
expected, water drainage systems should be opened and cleaned so as to avoid water
accumulation due to surface runoff and floods that may cause damage of infrastructures, loss
of lives and property.
Health sector
Due to the anticipated shortage of water in most parts of the country, the community may be
forced to utilize unsafe water so there is a likelihood of outbreak of water borne diseases.
Relevant Authorities concerned with public health and individuals are advised to take
appropriate health measures needed to minimize the expected negative impacts on health.

Prepared by
Tanzania Meteorological Agency, P.O. Box 3056 Dar es Salaam, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Tel. 255 (0) 22 2460706-8 ; Fax: 255 - (0) 22 2460735 E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz

Disaster Management
Disaster management authorities and other stakeholders are advised to take necessary
measures such as good practice of environmental conservations and ensure preparedness,
response, and mitigation plan are in place to reduce any negative impacts that may result from
the expected below normal rainfall.

Media
The media is advised to obtain, make regular follow-up and disseminate weather and climate
information and warning including the updates as provided by appropriate Warning Authority
the Tanzania Meteorological Agency - TMA. Moreover, Media is encouraged to seek and obtain
inputs from relevant sectors when preparing and communicating cross cutting issues related to
Weather and Climate to the Public.
Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) advises all users of weather information including
farmers, livestock keepers, wildlife conservation authorities, hydrological and health sectors to
continue seeking, and following experts advice on their relevant sectors.
NB: The current status of seasonal forecasting allows for prediction of spatial and temporal
averages and may not fully account for all physical and dynamical factors that influence
short-term climate variability. Users of this outlook are, therefore urged to make good use of
daily, ten day and monthly updates issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Agency.

Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) will continue to monitor developments of the weather
systems and issue updates.

Dr. Agnes L. Kijazi

Director General

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Tanzania Meteorological Agency, P.O. Box 3056 Dar es Salaam, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Tel. 255 (0) 22 2460706-8 ; Fax: 255 - (0) 22 2460735 E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz