Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
November 2015
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Russia
Jan 11
India
China
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
Brazil
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, PMIPremium, Credit Suisse / IDC
November 2015
1999
2001
USA
2003
Japan
2005
Eurozone
2007
Germany
2009
2011
China
2013
2015
Zero inflation
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
November 2015
1'000s
600
400
100
200
200
0
300
-200
400
-400
jobless claims
-600
500
-800
600
-1000
700
2007
2008
2009
Payrolls
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Initial jobless claims in survey week (rhs, inverted)
2015
Feb 14
Jun 14
USD/EUR
Oct 14
Feb 15
Jun 15
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/GBP
Oct 15
62
56
50
-2
44
-4
38
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Brazil PMI
2013
2014
2015
25
20
15
10
5
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
10
0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Germany
Q4
2012
France
Q1
2013
Spain
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Italy
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
November 2015
11
25
20
15
10
0
Jan 95
Jan 97
Jan 99
Jan 01
Eurozone
Last data point: 15.08.2015
Jan 03
Germany
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
France
Italy
Spain
Jan 11
Jan 13
Jan 15
Greece
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
November 2015
12
Index, Level
0
2.5
-10
0.0
-20
-2.5
-30
-5.0
1996
-40
1998
2000
2002
2004
Retail sales
2006
2008
2010
Consumer confidence (rhs)
2012
2014
13
Oct 06
Oct 07
US Treasuries
Last data point: 23.10.2015
Oct 08
Oct 09
Oct 10
Oct 11
UK Govt Bonds
Oct 12
Oct 13
Oct 14
Oct 15
14
EUR/CHF
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
15
1
0.7
0
0.7
United States
1.0
Luxembourg
1.1
United Kingdom
1.2
1.4
Switzerland
2.3
0.6
15%
10%
5%
USA*
UK
Luxembourg*
Germany
Singapore
Hong Kong*
Switzerland
0%
18
Singapore
Aspiring global wealth management center
Stable political climate, favorable tax regime.
Attracts clients from Asias rising economies.
Source: Credit Suisse Switzerland as a financial center 2014
November 2015
19
(USD, 2013)
(Rank, 2013-2014)
(Rank. 2014)
81,000
1st (-)
2nd (-)
3rd (-)
2
2
2
2
55,000
2nd (-)
3rd (+2)
9th (+3)
3
3
3
3
38,000
7th (-)
4th (-1)
15th (-)
Source: Worldbank, World Economic Forum, IMD, United Nations Development Programme
November 2015
20
5.
Competitiveness
4. Infrastructure
Success
Factors
2.
Bus.
Environment
3.
Market
Access
Source: Credit Suisse Switzerland as a financial center 2014
November 2015
21
Lack of internationally
harmonized regulation
Costs
and rules
Risks/
Opportunities
CyberCrime
Business
environment
Market
access
Little bureaucracy
Well-capitalized
banks
Growth in a
multipolar world Regional wealth shift
November 2015
22
Digitization
Increasing transparency
Decline in transaction costs
Democratization of knowledge
Rise of social media
Data security/individual
privacy
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Debt Crisis
Expansive monetary policy
Pressure to comply in tax
matters
Maximization of tax revenues
and introduction of new taxes
(e.g. FTT, etc.)
Weak euro/strong franc,
negative interest rates
90
80
1993
1998
Banks
2003
2008
2013
Shift of Balance
Increasing significance of
emerging markets
Rising importance of shadow
banks
Swiss economy
Source: BAKBASEL. (2014). The economic significance of the Swiss financial sector.
November 2015
23
07
73%
08
78%
2'500
08
09
10
11
12
71%
73%
75%
75%
09
10
11
12
2'000
1'500
1'000
GB
Singapore
US
Asia
68%
77%
65%
North America
68%
64%
07
75%
73%
76%
77%
79%
76%
Luxembourg
500
Hong Kong
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
0%
Sources: Booz & Company. (2014). Global wealth management outlook 201415.; SBA & BCG (2014). Actively shaping change.
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
24
Consolidation ongoing
Consolidation of the Swiss Banking Landscape set to continue
Number of Banks in Switzerland (Institutions)
1992
468
-185 (-40%)
Other banks
Stock market banks1
Foreign banks2
Cantonal/regional banks3
Major banks
-30 (-55%)
-10 (-24%)
-28 (-18%)
-115 (-56%)
-2 (-50%)
2013
283
Institutions specializing in securities transactions and wealth management; 2 Includes foreign-owned banks and branches of foreign banks; 3 Including Raiffeisen
November 2015
25
Basic requirements
16.0%
20.0%
Buffer1
19.5%
=19.5%-25%
CH TBTF: 28.6%
a Gone concern
25%
25%
Going concern
Buffers1
~5%
20%
=19%3
15%
Capital
Conservation
Buffer 5.5%
=13%
10%
5%
Buffers1
~5%
Other GLAC
8%-12%
Low-Trigger
CoCos 6%
Tier 2 2.0%
Tier 2 2.0%
AT1 1.5%
AT1 1.5%
High-Trigger
CoCos 3%
Minimum CET 1
4.5%
Minimum CET 1
4.5%
Minimum CET 1
4.5%
0%
Basel III
1 Includes
FSB TLAC
capital conservation buffer (2.5%) and G-SIB buffer (1%-2.5%); 2 CS: capital conservation buffer (2.5%) and G-SIB buffer (1.5%); 3 Based on original calibration
November 2015
26
Europe
Long Term
WTO-TiSA
Greater involvement of Switzerland in
standard-setting bodies
November 2015
27
Functionality of AEOI
Basic Documentation
Model Agreement: ensuring data protection, specialty principle,
reciprocity
Standardized exchange of information: common reporting standard
Interpretation commentary
Basic data of IT solution
2016
January 1
Launch of new accountopening processes1
1 Timeline
Country
B
Authority A
can review
foreign
account data
Automatic transfer
from Authority B
to Authority A
2017
January 1
Start of general data
compilation
Bank B
reports
data to
Authority B
Account number
Name, address, date of
birth
Tax ID number
Interest, dividends
Income from certain
insurance policies
Balance on account
Income from sale of
financial assets
2018
September 30
First exchange of information1
November 2015
28
Lack of internationally
harmonized regulation
Costs
and rules
Risks/
Opportunities
CyberCrime
Business
environment
Market
access
Little bureaucracy
Well-capitalized
banks
November 2015
29
Forecast: +3 bn in
the next 90 yrs
10
8
6
4
2
0
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
30
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
2000
2015
2030
500
0
Africa
LatAm
OECD
BRICs
Source: OECD, Credit Suisse
November 2015
31
Old age dependency ratio (po pulatio n aged 65+/po pulatio n aged 15-64 years)
80
70
4,000
60
3,000
50
40
2,000
30
1,000
20
0
2009
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Emerging M arkets
1990
2000
Japan
2010
US
2020
2030
2040
Western Euro pe
2050
North America
Central and South America
Sub-Saharan Africa
2020
2030
Europe
Asia Pacific
Middle East & North Africa
32
Advanced economies
Africa
other developing countries
India
China
Forecast
300
200
100
-100
1955
1970
1985
2000
2015
2030
2045
2060
2075
2090
Source: UN, Credit Suisse
November 2015
33
Lack of internationally
harmonized regulation
Costs
and rules
Risks/
Opportunities
CyberCrime
Business
environment
Market
access
Little bureaucracy
Well-capitalized
banks
November 2015
34
1.4BN
ACTIVE USERS
4.2TN
IN G-20 ALONE
90%
IN 2 YEARS
35
97%
57%
10.4
Average Number Of
Sources Consulted Prepurchase
36
BANKING LANDSCAPE
Will Change As A Result Of These Forces
Long-term structural trends
ILLUSTRATIVE
Client Behavior
Declining clients
trust in banks
New quality &
quantity of regulation
Pure digital
Hybrid
Post-crises trends
Face-to-Face
&
New technologies
empowering clients
Self-directed
Selector
Validator
Delegator
Upstart
Upstart online
online
competitors
competitors
E.g., Interactive
Brokers,
Cortal Consors, .comdirect,
Swissquote, Saxo Bank,
Wealthfront
Hybrid / Big
Hybrid / Big players
E.g., UBS, Credit
Suisse, Barclays,
Deutsche Bank,
Julius Br
Traditional
players
Traditional
players
November 2015
37
38
&
November 2015
39
What is FinTech ?
Intersection between technology and finance
Technical innovations/enabler or disrupting
technologies towards to traditional banking
Highly dynamic market (16000 startups)
Main market segments:
Analytics/ operations and risk management
Investment/ wealth management
Digital currencies
Payments
Lending and financing....
Aim to simplify and revolutionize banking
40
FinTech revolution
45% of independent financial advisors and 24% of bank branches to disappear by 2020E
SocGen announced to cut 20% of its branches till end 2016
While FinTech earnings for the moment lower than 1% of whole banking segments earnings, they are
expected to reach 5% by 2018
16000 start ups estimated whereof in 15 years, more than 90% of current active players will have
disappeared from the market because of unprofitability or acquisition from banks/ bigger player
The 10% that will have survived have the potential to change the banking sector fundamentally
41
250
5000
200
4000
3000
100
2000
Number od deals
Million USD
150
50
1000
0
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Funding (FinTech)
Deals (FinTech)
42
Innovation
Lowcost
Be customer friendly
Have fast processes
Adapt to new technologies
Simplicity
Success
Drivers
Plusvalue
Market
access
Be connected
Employ different user-interfaces (incl.
mobile)
November 2015
43
Bigger
Players
Competition
Key
risks
Longterm
profitability
Regula
-tion
November 2015
44
USD 4.7 trillion in revenue for traditional financial services is at risk of being displaced by
new technology-enabled entrants.
Silicon Valley is coming. There are hundreds of startups with a lot of brains and money working on
various alternatives to traditional banking.... They are very good at reducing the pain points in
that they can make loans in minutes, which might take banks weeks.
45
Mortgage
8%
Payments
25%
Consumer credit
17%
Asset management
79%
Deposits
83%
Current account
16%
Credit cards
29%
Source: Accenture, The Everyday Bank, October 2013
November 2015
46
Product
Management
Sales
Origination
Service &
monitoring
Collections
and
recoveries
Credit risk
management
Source: Retail lending origination exercise, Accenture, Credit Suisse, companies websites
November 2015
:
47
Merchant
Acquirer
Network
Bank/Issuer
Consumer
48
or in wealth management
Banks no longer the sole provider of all services competition
Account
Proposal
Trading &
settlement
Asset allocation
optimization
Performance
review
49
Lending
Fundamental business for traditional banks.
Crowdlending/ Crowdfunding
Peer-to-Peer lending
Peer-to-Business lending
Social (non-profit) lending
50
LendingClub (www.lendingclub.com)
World largest online platform that provides
Peer-to-Peer lending
Aim to provide more attractive interest rates and
rates of returns than traditional players by
lowering operational costs
Possibility to negotiate the interest rate
Loans up to 35,000 USD
Near USD 2 bn loans have been funded in
2014
51
Payment
Banks earn non-interest income from payment processing
services and help merchants set up payment systems.
52
Venmo (www.venmo.com)
Payment service to make and share payments between
friends
Since 2013, Venmo is under the control of PayPal
(PayPal bought Venmo from Braintree for USD 800 m)
53
54
Wikifolio (www.wikifolio.com)
Online investment platform (for DE, CH and AT)
Investment
Investors
Profit
Performance fees
Attractive for small investors that can look for investment ideas and invest trough
certificates that replicate a traders strategy
The platform can be risky for retail investors that follow a strategy that doesnt
match investor risk profile
Main advantages of Wikifolio are the low costs and its community
Source: www.wikifolio.com, August 2015
November 2015
55
Acorns (www.acorns.com)
Micro-investment app
Small amounts (spare money) are invested on a regularly basis in a
selected portfolio
5 diversified portfolios according to investors risk profile
Invested money can be withdrawn at any time and for no cost
Main advantage: low-cost and easy to use
Main disadvantage: low-expected return even for the aggressive
portfolio strategy
56
57
Sentifi (www.sentifi.com)
58
NY - London - HongKong...
November 2015
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Launched in 2011
November 2015
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2011
2012
2013
2014
November 2015
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Mentors
Bank of America
Barclays
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
UBS
Digital Asset Holdings, LLC is building next generation cryptographically secure settlement and ledger services. The Company is providing safe and efficient
settlement of conventional and digital assets as well providing a digital ledger to create, issue, track and transfer mainstream financial assets.
Financial abuse of older adults is a growing epidemic, costing seniors billions of dollars annually - with trillions at risk. EverSafe is an innovative technology
service focused on safeguarding the financial health of seniors and their families. Our software protects older adults from exploitation and identity theft by
monitoring banking, investment, credit card and credit report transactions for erratic activity on a daily basis. Trusted advocates, with access to a consolidated
view of financial information, can be designated to serve as an extra set of eyes in monitoring and resolving alerts.
American Express
Capital One
Guardian Life
Max is an intelligent cash management solution that helps individual investors earn more on FDIC-insured bank deposits, automatically. Maxs patent-pending
cash sweep technology monitors interest rates and automatically reallocates funds among a client's existing checking account and higher-yielding online savings
accounts to maximize yield and FDIC insurance coverage while maintaining a desired checking account balance.
Individual investors can access Max directly at MaxMyInterest.com. Max can also be integrated into existing wealth management platforms, so that banks,
brokerage firms, registered investment advisors (RIAs) and multi-family offices can deliver this innovative cash management solution directly to their clients.
Ally
Credit Suisse
Morgan Stanley
UBS
Wells Fargo
PierceGTI is a security product company that provides instructions on how to increase security. Using global threat, artificial intelligence and local log events,
PierceGTI creates customized reports and recommendations for IT professionals to increase their security. PierceGTI leverages unique privacy-protected crowdsourcing and our Internet-scale global knowledge-base to link together customers for unified threat knowledge and increased defense.
Ally
Bank of America
Barclays
Guardian Life
PYT Funds, Pay Your Tuition, is a trailblazing financial services firm that connects families to banks with a new solution to financing education and solving the
problem known as the the "parent loan trap". We have pioneered a platform that combines online crowdfunding with bank funding to secure a private student
loan without a cosigner. Our technology innovates the way we finance education for the future and provides a more responsible lending platform to the family and
the bank.
American Express
Credit Suisse
JPMorgan Chase
Social Alpha delivers actionable insights and decision support tools for traders, analysts and investment managers, who use our real-time predictive intelligence to
increase profitable trades and reduce investment risk. We leverage advances in large-scale Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing for the real-time
analysis of millions of online news and social media sources. Our services include interactive visualizations to monitor portfolios, real-time alerts on market-moving
social media activity and low-latency feeds of social analytics.
Citi
Credit Suisse
New York Life
Wells Fargo
Ufora makes analyzing financial data at scale quick and easy by automating the engineering. Our Smart Compute platform scales any sophisticated algorithm to
any size data automatically and instantaneously, allowing analysts to address real world complexity and answer their most important questions in seconds. Hedge
funds, banks, insurers, and credit card companies use Ufora to price complex financial instruments, analyze and mitigate risk, predict and prevent fraud, and
decrease the costs of regulatory compliance. Firms using Ufora see a dramatic increase in the productivity of their technical workforce.
Capital One
Citi
Credit Suisse
Goldman Sachs
JPMorgan Chase
Morgan Stanley
November 2015
62
Mentee Opportunities
Research/Holt
Day/Transition
Trading
Algo Trading
Digital Private
Bank
Portfolio Managers
Prime Services or
Prime Consulting
Social Alpha delivers actionable insights and decision support tools for traders, analysts and investment managers,
who use our real-time predictive intelligence to increase profitable trades and reduce investment risk.
Mentors
Citi
Credit Suisse
New York Life
Wells Fargo
November 2015
63
Mentee Opportunities
CCAR Calculations/
Stress Testing
VAR or Other
Risk Calcs
Linear/Non-Linear
Quantitative Research
Algo Trading
Client Analytics, Retention
and Engagement
Surveillance and
Suspicious Activity
Securitized
Products
Fixed Income
Research
Ufora makes analyzing financial data at scale quick and easy by automating the engineering. The Smart
Compute platform scales any sophisticated algorithm to any size data automatically and
instantaneously, allowing analysts to address real world complexity and answer their most important questions
in seconds. Hedge funds, banks, insurers, and credit card companies use Ufora to price complex
financial instruments, analyze and mitigate risk, predict and prevent fraud, and decrease the costs of regulatory
compliance. Firms using Ufora see a dramatic increase in the productivity of their technical workforce.
Mentors
Capital One
Citi
Credit Suisse
Goldman Sachs
JPMorgan Chase
Morgan Stanley
November 2015
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5. Limited Swiss market size, Swiss FinTechs in need of easy foreign market
access while hub in CH
- Regulatory adequacy is key
6. Great idea sold poorly: Presentation and pitching DNA by entrepreneurs
November 2015
67
Source: Swiss Finance Startups, Roland Berger: Swiss Fintech Study 2015
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Q&A
Risk warning
Every investment involves risk, especially with regard to fluctuations in value and return. If an investment is denominated in a currency other than your base currency, changes in the rate of exchange may have an adverse effect on value, price or
income.
For a discussion of the risks of investing in the securities mentioned in this document, please refer to the following Internet link:
https://research.credit-suisse.com/riskdisclosure
This document may include information on investments that involve special risks. You should seek the advice of your independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decisions based on this document or for any necessary explanation of its
contents. Further information is also available in the information brochure Special Risks in Securities Trading available from the Swiss Bankers Association.The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in
this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is affected by changes in spot or forward interest and exchange rates, economic indicators, the financial standing of any issuer or reference issuer, etc., that may have a
positive or adverse effect on the income from or price of such securities or financial instruments. By purchasing securities or financial instruments, you may incur a loss or a loss in excess of the principal as a result of fluctuations in market prices or
other financial indices, etc. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Commission rates for brokerage transactions will be as per the rates agreed between CS and the
investor. For transactions conducted on a principal-to-principal basis between CS and the investor, the purchase or sale price will be the total consideration. Transactions conducted on a principal-to-principal basis, including over-the-counter derivative
transactions, will be quoted as a purchase/bid price or sell/offer price, in which case a difference or spread may exist. Charges in relation to transactions will be agreed upon prior to transactions, in line with relevant laws and regulations. Please read
the pre-contract documentation, etc., carefully for an explanation of risks and commissions, etc., of the relevant securities or financial instruments prior to purchase. Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk
and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including,
but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct their
own investigation and analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. Some investments discussed in this report have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may
experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that investment is realized. Those losses may equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment,
in such circumstances you may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make the investment may be used as part of that income yield. Some
investments may not be readily realizable and it may be difficult to sell or realize those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed. Please contact your
Relationship Manager if you have any questions.
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Performance can be affected by commissions, fees or other charges as well as exchange rate fluctuations.
Financial market risks
Historical returns and financial market scenarios are no guarantee of future performance. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue could fall or rise or fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future
performance. If an investment is denominated in a currency other than your base currency, changes in the rate of exchange may have an adverse effect on value, price or income. You should consult with such advisor(s) as you consider necessary to
assist you in making these determinations.
Investments may have no public market or only a restricted secondary market. Where a secondary market exists, it is not possible to predict the price at which investments will trade in the market or whether such market will be liquid or illiquid.
Emerging markets
Where this document relates to emerging markets, you should be aware that there are uncertainties and risks associated with investments and transactions in various types of investments of, or related or linked to, issuers and obligors incorporated,
based or principally engaged in business in emerging markets countries. Investments related to emerging markets countries may be considered speculative, and their prices will be much more volatile than those in the more developed countries of the
world. Investments in emerging markets investments should be made only by sophisticated investors or experienced professionals who have independent knowledge of the relevant markets, are able to consider and weigh the various risks presented by
such investments, and have the financial resources necessary to bear the substantial risk of loss of investment in such investments. It is your responsibility to manage the risks which arise as a result of investing in emerging markets investments and
the allocation of assets in your portfolio. You should seek advice from your own advisers with regard to the various risks and factors to be considered when investing in an emerging markets investment.
Alternative investments
Hedge funds are not subject to the numerous investor protection regulations that apply to regulated authorized collective investments and hedge fund managers are largely unregulated. Hedge funds are not limited to any particular investment discipline
or trading strategy, and seek to profit in all kinds of markets by using leverage, derivatives, and complex speculative investment strategies that may increase the risk of investment loss.
Commodity transactions carry a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for many private investors. The extent of loss due to market movements can be substantial or even result in a total loss.
Investors in real estate are exposed to liquidity, foreign currency and other risks, including cyclical risk, rental and local market risk as well as environmental risk, and changes to the legal situation.
Interest rate and credit risks
The retention of value of a bond is dependent on the creditworthiness of the Issuer and/or Guarantor (as applicable), which may change over the term of the bond. In the event of default by the Issuer and/or Guarantor of the bond, the bond or any
income derived from it is not guaranteed and you may get back none of, or less than, what was originally invested.
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