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Problem Solutions
1) In a 7 game playoff series like the World Series, the first team to win
4 games wins the series.
a) Assuming there is equal probability that each team wins each game,
what is the probability that the series ends in 4, 5, 6, or 7 games?
Let X = number of games the World Series will go this year.
Let there be two teams in the series: the Phillies (P) and the
Red Sox (R). Then, for the series to end in four games with the
Phillies as champions, the only way this can happen is if the
Phillies win the first four games, so the sequence of game-bygame winners would be: P P P P. In each of those four games,
the Phillies have 0.5 chance of winning each game, so the
probability that the Phillies win in 4 games is (0.5)4. The same
argument could be made for the Red Sox winning in 4 games
(and thus we just multiply the (0.5)4 times two):
.
For the series to end in five games with the Phillies as
champions, there are 4 ways (game-by-game sequences) this
can happen: 1) R P P P P, 2) P R P P P, 3) P P R P P, 4) P P P R
P [Note, the Phillies have to win the 5th game]. This is
equivalent to choosing which 3 of the first 4 games the Phillies
must win, thus there are
ways to do this. Also in each of
those five games, the Phillies have 0.5 chance of winning or
losing each game, so the probability that the Phillies win in 5
games is 4*(0.5)4. The same argument could be made for the
Red Sox winning in 5 games (and thus we just multiply the
4*(0.5)4 times two):
.
Similar arguments can be made to calculate the remaining two
possibilities as such:
or
Variance:
4 games
5 games
6 games
7 games
17
18
18
33
2) A jewel thief and his partner planned to steal 2 identical diamonds from a
jewelry store. They had 2 similar, but fake diamonds prepared. The plan was
for the thiefs accomplice to faint and, while the stores staff were distracted,
for the thief to grab the two real diamonds from the viewing pad and replace
them with the two fake diamonds. On the day of the robbery all was going
according to plan up to the point when the thiefs accomplice fainted and the
staff rushed to her assistance. The thief grabbed the two real diamonds from
the viewing pad and put them in his pocket, but then to his horror realized
that the two fake diamonds were already in that same pocket. The thief had
to quickly grab two stones at random from the four (two real and two fake) in
his pocket and leave them on the viewing pad after which he left the store
with his accomplice.
a) Give the sample space S that corresponds to the two stones in the
thiefs pocket as he leaves the
store [(D1,F1), etc.] and assign probabilities to the elements of that
sample space.
S = {(D1,D2), (D1, F1), (D1,F2), (D2, F1), (D2, F2), (F1, F2)}
b) Let X be the number of real diamonds the thief had in his pocket as he
left the store. Give the
probability distribution of X.
x
P(X=x)
0
1//6
1
2/3
2
1/6
c) What is the probability that at least one of the two stones in the thiefs
pocket is real?
currently enrolled in Stat 104, 115 of the 275 students are women. Use this
information for the following problem.
a) What is the expected number of women in a simple random sample of 275
students from Harvard College? What is the standard deviation?
Binomial Distribution:
E(X) = np = .52 * 275 = 143
where
n=7
p=.30
b) Let X be the random variable for the count of the number of days with
precipitation in January in Cambridge (treat this as a random sample of 31
days). What are the mean and standard deviation of X?
E(X)=np = 7*.30 = 2.1
c) There were 14 days with precipitation in the month of January this year.
Calculate the probability of there being exactly 14 rainy days in the 31 days
in January in Cambridge (a random sample of 31 days...go ahead and use
software).
5) You and your roommate are discussing how many classes you plan
on taking next semester (either 3, 4 or 5). Let X be the number of
classes you will decide to take and Y be the number of classes your
roommate will decide to take. The joint probability distribution for the
random variables X and Y is shown below:
# Classes Taken
You
Your
Roommate
3
4
5
3
0.04
0.05
0.01
0.10
4
0.05
0.55
0.10
0.70
5
0.01
0.10
0.09
0.20
0.10
0.70
0.20
1.00
Variance:
Variance:
Mean:
Variance: