POLICY PAPER

THE UK REFERENDUM
ANA ANDGULADZE
SEPTEMBER, 2016

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU,

THE EUROPEAN NEIGHBORHOOD
POLICY AND GEORGIA

INTRODUCTION
The historic European Union membership referendum took place in the United Kingdom of
Great Britain and Northern Ireland on June 23.
The referendum was historic not because of the
question stated on the ballot - Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European
Union or leave the European Union? - but because of the response that it received: the vote
to leave the EU was 51.9%. Immediately after
the announcement of the EU referendum results,
UK Prime Minister David Cameron made a statement that he would soon resign from his office
and he did: three weeks after the referendum
the UK had a new Prime Minister. Former Home
Secretary and a leader of the Conservative Party, Theresa May, the second woman in the history of Great Britain to hold the office of Prime
Minister.
Prospects of holding the second referendum
on Scottish independence are now actively discussed, while British pound has collapsed to its
lowest level in over 30 years. In addition, far-right
wing parties in Europe are now on the rise, so is
the fear of the so-called domino effect that may
result in the EUs disintegration.

LONG ROAD TO BREXIT

What exactly led the UK to this referendum?
Britains stance towards EU integration and the
European Union itself has always been ambivalent, and its roots date back to a long time before
the EUs existence. Great Britain always tried to
maintain European balance of power that prevented any single European power from achieving hegemony over the continent. The two world
wars in the 20th century reaffirmed Britains belief
that continental Europe created more problems
than benefits. However, as paradoxical as it may
seem, in 1973 United Kingdom joined the very
continental Europe (this time, at the institutionalized level) that it always viewed with suspicions.
When Harold Macmillans cabinet formally applied for the accession of the UK to the European Economic Community (EEC) for the first
time in 1961, the decision was purely pragmatic.
However, it took the United Kingdom 12 years to
officially join the European Community.
In 1973 Britains trade turnover with EU-member
states began to grow at a fast pace. Currently
EU countries account for 48% of UK exports and
47% of UK imports.1 From economic perspective
EUs market is very important for Great Britain.

This way, the referendum is not only a historic

event for Europe but also a turning point that has
led the British and majority of EUs population to
face an ambiguous future.

June 23 referendum was not the first time the

British were asked to decide whether to remain
in the union. In 1975 the first referendum was
held in UK to gauge support for the countrys
continued membership of the European ComUnder these circumstances, outcomes of the munity. The referendum resulted in a sweeping
June 23 referendum may have a negative impact win for remaining in the EEC. Proponents of the
on EUs eastern neighborhood and Georgias Eu- membership cited not only economic arguments
ro-Atlantic path. In order to prevent consolidation but also matters like defense, Britains role in
of pessimistic sentiments towards EU in Georgia the international arena and Europes peaceful fuand avoid slowing down of Georgias path to- ture2. Interestingly, Margaret Thatcher argued in
wards European integration, the Government of favor of Britains membership of the community
Georgia should pursue effective communication and urged constituents to vote in favor of staystrategies inside the country as well as outside, ing in3. Although a majority of Britons supported
with EU member states.
the EEC membership in the 1975 referendum,
Great Britain always remained a stronghold for
Eurosceptics. Since the day it joined the union,

1 https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx (2016 data)

2 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/25/britains-1975-europe-referendum-what-was-it-like-last
3 Ibid.
1

Great Britains Labor Party officially advocated

for abandoning the membership and the idea
also enjoyed support from some of the Tories.
Although the issue was never a priority over the
last few decades, amid current important economic and migration problems it recently surfaced on the political agenda.
The level of Euroscepticism was practically soaring during David Camerons premiership, which
forced him to give in to some of Eurosceptics
demands, as evidenced by the fact that Britains
Tories left the European Peoples Party (European Parliaments center-right political wing).4 In
December 2012, Mayor of London Boris Johnson publicly urged the Prime Minister before
announcement of the referendum to start negotiating with Brussels about Britains role in the
European Union.

ingly, following the referendum the now-former

leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), Nigel Farage5 admitted that it was a mistake for
the Vote Leave campaign to claim that UK was
sending 350 thousand per week to EU.
In addition to the foregoing economic consideration, issues like migration also played an important role in shaping public attitudes. Free
movement of people, often accompanied by migration-related problems, in exchange for access
to single market was a deal that the British were
not willing to sign up for. Migration rates were
spiking following the 2004 EU enlargement process (EU10 countries)6 and the migration issue
was further acerbated by current European migrant crisis. The campaign for a Leave vote in
the EU referendum pledged that it would put an
end to migration. The campaign was sending out
messages about dangers of uncontrolled migration and the need to address issues like border
control and granting of asylum at the national
level, etc.7

During pre-election campaign in 2015, David

Cameron as a leader of the Conservative Party promised to hold a referendum on Britains
membership of the EU if he won the elections.
After the partys convincing election win, the EU In addition to using economy and migration as
referendum became part of the official agenda.
primary considerations, proponents of Britains
exit criticized the EU itself as a large bureauCAMPAIGNS AHEAD OF THE REFERENDUM
cratic machine staffed by undemocratically selected Eurocrats. Although the EU is founded on
Following negotiations with the EU, Cameron higher values and serves the cause of spreading
secured a deal to give the UK a special sta- democracy, peace and welfare throughout Eutus in the EU. Vote Leave, the campaign for a rope, Euroscepticism has been actively gaining
Leave vote in the EU referendum, spearheaded traction as a result of high levels of bureaucracy,
by Gisela Stuart from the Labor Party as well as poorly coordinated external messages and lack
former Mayor of London Boris Jonson and Sec- of mechanism for responding to different probretary of State for Justice Michael Gove, ques- lems in a prompt and effective manner. Theretioned reliability of the deal because it was not fore, it is safe to say that to a certain extent, polegally binding.
litical parties and individual political leaders that
were urging Britons to vote for leaving the EU
Both sides cited economic considerations as a spoke the truth: EU needs to wake up, identify
key argument. Those against staying in highlight- its weaknesses and reform itself; however, exit
ed high membership fees, while supporters of of EUs strategic member from the union is not
Britains remaining in the bloc (Britain Stronger in the most successful step towards that direction.
Europe) focused on the importance of the EU sin- The referendum polarized opinion not only
gle market, opportunities for businesses to cre- among but also within Britains political parties,
ate many jobs, cheaper prices and importance of at the ideological level. Some of the left-winginvestments from European countries. Interest4 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-did-uk-end-up-voting-leave-european-union
5 On July 4, 2016, Nigel Farage announced that he would be resigning from his office of the UKIP leader.
6 F. DAuria, K. Mc Morrow & K, Pichelmann, Economic impact of migration flows following the 2004 EU enlargement process, Economic Papers 349, European Com
mission, November, 2008. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication13389_en.pdf
7 http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/why_vote_leave
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ers blamed the EU for lack of democratic governance, while others praised its internationalism.
In contrast, some right-wingers focused on benefits of EUs single market, while others viewed it
as a threat to the state sovereignty.8

RESULTS OF THE REFERENDUM

To initiate departure of the UK from the European Union, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty must be
officially triggered by Britains new Prime Minister
Theresa May. The Prime Minister has declared
It turned out that citizens of England and Wales that triggering of Article 50 will not occur until
accounted for majority of supporters of UKs with- Scotlands position in negotiation is clear.10 Afdrawal from the EU, while Scotland and Northern ter triggering of Article 50, two-year long negoIreland voted for Britain to stay by a large mar- tiations between the EU and the UK will comgin. British voters were also heavily split based mence for the departure. Article 50 of the Lisbon
on age, location and social status.9
Treaty has never been invoked in the history of
EUs existence. For the next two years the UK
It is safe to conclude that June 23 referendum will continue to fulfill its obligations under the EU
polarized the nation into pro- and anti- EU camps. legislation but it will no longer participate in the
EUs decision-making process.
Results of the referendum have left Britain facing
an ambiguous future. It has put effectiveness of
EUs existence at risk and may even trigger a
possible domino effect from Brexit. In addition,
following the referendum, future of EUs neighborhood policy is now unclear it will most likely
affect the fate of EaP countries within the context
of European Integration, including Georgia.
FUTURE OF THE UK: WHAT, WHEN, HOW?
Supporters of Brexit waged active and emotional
campaign to illustrate benefits that Britain would
gain after leaving the EU. However, after the referendum it is now clear that none of the leading
political forces have a concrete plan for Britain
on how to successfully complete the transition
process.
The UKs territorial integrity is threatened by discussions about prospects of the second referendum on Scottish independence. In the referendum 62% of Scotts voted in favor of the UKs
membership of the European Union. Results of
the referendum have left Scotlands leaders at
the crossroads of respecting their peoples democratic decision and maintaining territorial integrity of the country. Passionate speech of Alyn
Smith, Member of the European Parliament for
8 http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/24/the-long-road-to-brexit-history-european-union/
9 http://www.politico.eu/article/britains-youth-voted-remain-leave-eu-brexit-referendum-stats/ (: YouGov exit poll- )
10 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-article-50-activated-uk-approach-eu-referendum-scotland-sturgeon-a7138971.html

Scotland, during June 28 extraordinary plenary

session of the European Parliament was a testament of the fact that the Scottish people view
themselves as an integral part of the European family and the EU; however, 44.7% of those
surveyed in Scotland believe that it is wrong to
hold the second referendum for independence,
while 41.9% of respondents supported the referendum. According to results of the same survey,
47% stated that they would support Scotlands
independence if such referendum was held,
while 41.2% stated that they would vote against
it.11 Although 55.7% of voters in Northern Ireland
supported Britains stay, Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers ruled out any prospects of a
referendum on the reunification of Ireland. Two
major components of EUs spending are agriculture and regional structural funds, and receipts
per capita are much higher in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.12 If Scotland and Northern Ireland remain in the UK and the letter exits
the European Union, the British Government will
most likely face a political pressure of finding alternative sources of funding promptly and without complications.

Economy and trade will be impacted most of all

by Brexit. Britain will be able to define its own
foreign trade policy priorities; however, in the future it may find it difficult to compete with the
European Union for potential partners and will be
forced to renegotiate existing trade agreements
with the EU. This will require considerable diplomatic efforts. Although from the perspective of
trade and investments, the EU is more important
for Britain than vice versa, Great Britain is a vital
trade partner for individual countries.
Overall, the UKs future in different fields will depend on lengthy and challenging negotiations
with EU; however, as opponents of Brexit argue,
in order to maintain free trade with the EU, Britain will have to follow a number of EUs regulations like before but it will no longer be able to
participate in the decision-making process.
No matter what the situation Great Britain finds
itself in after its departure, Brexits effects can be
more dramatic for the EU.
EU WITHOUT THE UK

First time withdrawal of a member state from the

Great Britains role in the international arena will EU raises suspicions about solidity of the union
most likely be reconsidered after its departure that serves as a foundation for the economy of
from the EU. The UK is holding an important the European continent.
place in the European Union and like other member countries has the right to vote in the Coun- The UK is the second largest economy in the
cil as well as in the Parliament. Over the years EU and the third largest contributor (after France
Britain has impacted a number of EUs initiatives and Germany) in the EUs budget. In 2015 Great
and as some experts argue, it had become one Britain contributed a share of 12.57% to the budof the most important obstacles to European in- get.14 Following Britains departure, the EU will
tegration. Although Great Britain is not and prob- lose an important source of income and EUs
ably will not be perceived as a stable partner share will considerably weaken in the global fifor international actors, its hard power assets nancial market, while London is considered one
military, financial and foreign policy - provide an of the worlds preeminent financial centers. Great
additional source of influence in the international Britain is also the center of corporate governance
arena. The UK is the fifth biggest military spend- and is a home to head offices of many transnaer and the second largest source of development tional corporations. It is also a leading country
funding.13 It is a member of major international in the field of research and innovation. Brexit
organizations (the World Bank, OECD, IEA, the may increase Germanys political and economic
UNSC, etc.).
supremacy in the EU but whether Germany is
ready for this is a different matter.15
11 The survey was held on June 25 by Daily Record and Daily Mirror and had total of 1002 participants.
12 Global Council, The Impact on the UK and the EU, June, 2015.
13 Ibid.
14 http://www.statista.com/statistics/316691/european-union-eu-budget-share-of-contributions/
15 https://next.ft.com/content/b1a2d66e-3715-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7
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Following Britains departure, the EU will lose

one of the most influential members, a vocal
supporter of liberalist economy, which may trigger changes in the Councils balance of power at
the institutional level (the UK is the third largest
country in the EU by population and therefore,
its vote in the Council and the Parliament has a
considerable weight).

policy, it didnt support the idea of common military structure and resources and instead advocated for relying on NATO and its resources.

On June 28 the EU unveiled Global Strategy, created under the leadership of Federica
Mogherini, High Representative of the European
Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy /
Vice-President of the Commission. The strategy
Clearly, Britains departure from the EU may cast highlights the need to strengthen the EU as a
a shadow on its global role and effectiveness of security community, in order to enable the EU to
its soft power. It also calls the EUs ability to play act autonomously, while also contributing to and
important role in global security into question. undertaking actions in cooperation with NATO.16
Britain is the largest military spender in the EU, Brexit may accelerate the timeline for this parwhile the soft power assets that the EU relies ticular priority if the EU manages to successfully
on for spreading democracy values in Europe overcome the existing crisis.
and throughout the world will significantly weaken without the UK because its departure will take Dealing with procedures for Britains departure
away the important economic and diplomatic re- from the bloc will be one of the challenges for
sources that the EU received from Britain.
the EU. Whether the twenty-seven states will be
able to maintain their unity, not only in the neBritain was one of the EU member states that ac- gotiations process but also in terms of the EUs
tively lobbied for sanctions against the Russian future activities, may turn out to be decisive for
Federation in response to Russias annexation maintaining the EUs role as a global actor.
of Crimea and blatant violation of international
laws. Active involvement of Great Britain was an
important tool for persuading other states whose
position on the sanctions was not clear. Although
Germanys position is decisive, Britains departure could mean that the sanctions will no longer
be a priority for the EU.
Brexit may undermine EUs representation in
the international arena, including the UN Security Council, G7 (where Britain is one of the four
EU-member states), G20, the IMF and the World
Bank.
Following Britains departure, France will become
the largest military force in Europe. EUs lack of
resources and weak policy in that regard will require further intensification of efforts after Brexit.
However, it must also be noted that Britains approach towards EUs defense and security initiatives was rather ambivalent. Although Britain had
a leading role in common defense and security

16 EEAS, A Global Strategy for the European Unions Foreign and Security Policy, Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe, June, 2016.

EUS NEIGHBORHOOD POLICY AFTER

Russia has always preferred bilateral relations
THE RESULTS OF THE UK
with individual members of the EU rather than to
REFERENDUM
Although Great Britain was not one of the
EU-member states that initiated the neighborhood policy, it was an active supporter, especially for Eastern European countries. It was also a
proponent of EUs enlargement policy; however,
following recent waves of enlargement, when
poorer Central European countries with weak
economies joined the EU, Britains focus shifted
from prospects of enlargement to dealing with
consequences of the enlargement. It should also
be noted that Great Britain was among those
EU-member states that resisted EU-membership
prospects for Ukraine and other Eastern European countries.17
Although some might argue that EUs enlargement policy has slowed down recently18, Johannes Hahn, Commissioner for European
Neighborhood Policy & Enlargement Negotiations announced after the UKs referendum that
EUs enlargement policy will continue and that
there is no time to be tired or desperate19
June 23 referendum may influence EUs neighborhood policy in different ways. On the one
hand, Brexit can be viewed as a syndrome of
exhaustion from problematic relations between
EU, Eastern Europe and Russia. In a referendum held in the Kingdom of Netherlands about
ratification of the Association agreement with
EU, 61% voted against the ratification. Referendum results are not legally binding for the government, however in light of the developments in
Britain, not taking its results into account would
be a very unpopular move from the Dutch Prime
Minister. The Netherlands may raise the issue of
amending the association treaty in an attempt to
address concerns of its citizens.20 In addition, in
light of Brexit, June 8 resolution of the French
Senate calling for a gradual relief of restrictive
measures imposed on Russia and increasingly
populist statements of far-right wing parties creates unfavorable environment for EaP member
countries.

deal with the EU as a whole. Increasing Euroscepticism amid the British referendum threatens
not only EU, which now faces the danger of disintegration and a possible domino effect (meaning that Brexit may trigger similar referendums
in other member states), as well as the EUs
eastern neighborhood: for countries like Ukraine,
Georgia and Moldova, EUs strength and unity is
crucially important.
THE BRITISH REFERENDUM AND GEORGIA:
WHAT ARE BREXITS IMPLICATIONS FOR US?
It has been two years since Georgia signed the
Association Agreement with the EU. On July 1,
2016, the agreement fully entered into force.
Georgia now anticipates approval of visa-free regime in early fall 2016. While waiting for benefits
of the Association Agreement to take effect and
the visa liberalization to be approved, Georgia
is getting close to the date of the parliamentary
elections in October.
Great Britains departure from the EU may lead
Georgians to become skeptical and pessimistic
about prospects of European integration. As noted earlier, the referendum has cast a shadow on
EUs image as a global actor, which may also
reflect on Georgian society. Although it is very
unlikely that the referendum will have a domino
effect and will lead to other countries exiting the
union, the extent to which it may affect enthusiasm of Georgians on their path to European integration will depend on effectiveness of strategic
communication by the Government of Georgia
and the EU. It is highly likely that Russia will intensify its anti-Western propaganda this time,
with more arguments. It will claim that Great Britains exit will further weaken the EU and make
it less reliable. In light of the upcoming parliamentary elections this will benefit parties whose
agendas aim to discredit Euro-Atlantic Integration as Georgias official foreign trajectory and
offer alternatives without any merit.

17 I. Bond, S. Besch, A. Gostyska-Jakubowska, R. Korteweg, C. Mortera-Martinez & S. Tilford, Europe after Brexit: Unleashed or undone? Centre for European
Reform, April, 2016.
18 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-balkans-idUSKCN0ZA1UD
19 http://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2016&mm=06&dd=24&nav_id=98424
20 http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/06/the-netherlands-threatens-not-to-ratify-ukraine-treaty/
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In addition, due to lengthy and complex procedures related to Britains departure, the EU may
drop Eastern Partnership and Georgia from its
political agenda. However, according to the EUs
Global Strategy published on June 18, Eastern
Partnership remains to be a priority for the European Union.21 The Strategy also highlights the
need to support spread of democracy; it views
Georgia and Tunisia as examples of success.
To solidify prospects of European integration, it
is strategically important for the Government of
Georgia to push Georgia further to the top of the
European agenda.
As stated earlier, Great Britain is an active supporter of the European Neighborhood Policy, including Georgia. It was one of NATO members
that supported Georgias membership of the Alliance. Although Britains departure from NATO
is not on the agenda, if it leaves the European
Union, Georgia will lose its friend at the table of
decision-makers in Brussels.
NATO summit in Warsaw dispelled any doubts
about negative impact of the British referendum
on policy of the Alliance. According to the decision adopted during the summit, NATO will increase its military presence in Eastern Europe
(Poland and the Baltic countries), which is indicative of NATOs ability to respond to contemporary
challenges. Montenegros accession has raised
hopes for Georgia and has reaffirmed NATOs
open door policy. The UK will continue to be an
important member of the Alliance and therefore,
Brexit is less likely to impact NATO-Georgia relations, especially following the 2016 Warsaw
Summit.
Great Britain, just like the remaining 27 members
of the EU, is a party of the Association Agreement with Georgia. However, following Brexit,
Georgia will no longer be able to exercise its
rights and obligations under the Agreement towards Great Britain. Therefore, Georgia should
continue negotiations about trade and economic
relations with the UK within a bilateral format,
which certainly requires additional time and resources.
21 EEAS, A Global Strategy for the European Unions Foreign and Security Policy, Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe, June, 2016.

CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS

tegration and the EU;

It is important to intensify diplomatic efforts with
the EU, both multilaterally and bilaterally with its
member states, in order to maintain Georgia on
top of European agenda;

It may be too early to talk about possible consequences of the referendum but one thing is clear:
EUs internal and foreign policies are now facing
important challenges and need to be reviewed
and accordingly adjusted. The only way for the As soon as procedures for Britains deparEU to overcome this existential crisis is for it to ture from the EU commence, the Government
of Georgia should start negotiating with the UK
engage in active and joint efforts.
about bilateral trade relations.
Following the June 23 referendum, Russias successful anti-Western propaganda can become
even more effective in EUs eastern neighborhood. For countries whose foreign policy and
more importantly, identity is defined by the Euro-Atlantic integration, it is important for the EU
to overcome this crisis promptly and effectively.
In light of the existing situation, the Government
of Georgia should intensify its efforts inside and
outside the country, by effective public messaging about the EU and Great Britain and by maintaining Georgia on top of the international agenda.
The Government of Georgia should intensify
public messaging about European integration,
Britains departure from the EU and its possible consequences for the future of the European
Union and for Georgias Euro-Atlantic path;
It is important for Georgia to intensify its efforts
against Russian propaganda, especially after
the British referendum. In light of the upcoming
parliamentary elections and different pro-Russian forces that exist in Georgia, the Government should target voters with clear and specific messages about indispensability of Georgias
Euro-Atlantic path;
Within the context of visa-liberalization, Georgia should intensify its efforts for working with
skeptic nations. As suggested by earlier recommendations, approval of visa-free regime will be
strategically important for Georgian society in
anticipation of tangible results from European in-