Second IEEE International Conference on Recent Advances and Innovations in Engineering (ICRAIE-2016) December 23-25, 2016,

Jaipur India

Expected Arctic Sea Ice Extent as on 2036

Abstract This paper is an extension to the paper entitled
Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trend over Past Two Decade
presented in National Symposium on Weather & Climate
Extremes, Chandigarh [1]. There the arctic sea ice variability
was studied from 1990 to 2012 only. So in continuation the
remaining years have been studied and the analysis of the
satellite data from year 1980 to 2015 has been made. Along with
this expected Sea Ice extent is being predicted by the trend
analysis and is presented in this paper upto 2036. The analysis
reveals that the Arctic Sea Ice extent is decreasing gradually and
the rate of decrement has increased drastically in past few years
which is matter of concern.
Keywords- Sea Ice; Arctic; Microwave Remote Sensing;
Cryosphere

I.

INTRODUCTION

It is a well known fact that the Polar Regions [2] or the high
latitude regions are areas where sun is never high enough due
to which they always remain covered by snow and ice. These
regions are said to influence our Earths climate cycle. Due to
their extreme weather conditions these regions always remain
sparsely explored and studied. But now with help of
advancement in new technology including satellite remote
sensing one is able to overcome this difficulty.
Remote sensing has established itself as the key method for
the observing and studying planet Earth. They guarantee
continuous large regions measurements especially over
inaccessible areas where measurement campaigns are often
difficult, expensive and dangerous. Technically a satellite
carrying a large payload operating at wide range of frequency
channels can help scientists to study such areas. Nevertheless,
microwave remote sensing is found to be the best for such
studies due to its all weather penetration capability.
Now days scientists study sea ice [3] trends using a
combination of satellites. Some of the satellite images are
shown in Fig 1. The Arctic data used here in this paper are the
daily maps of sea ice concentration with polar stereographic
projections with individual grid of approximately 25 km by 25
km archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center
(NSIDC) [4][5] and GCOM-W1 Data Providing Service.
The Sea ice surrounding Arctic expands and covers the
entire Arctic Ocean including nearby lands (North America,
Greenland and Eurasia). The Arctic sea ice expands and
contracts with the seasons: melting occurs during summer and
expansion occurs during winter. It reaches to a minimum in
September (end of summer) in Northern Hemisphere contrary
to Antarctic [6][7] where sea ice reaches its maximum in
September.
From this paper authors had made an attempt to predict the
behavior of extent of Sea Ice for the next 20 years that is upto
2036.

Figure 1. Illustrates the Satellite images of Arctic for March and September
months (Courtesy: http://seaice.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/)

II.

IMPORTANCE OF SEA ICE

Sea Ice covers are important to study as they greatly affect

the climate cycle. About 7% of the Earth's surface and about
12% of the world's oceans are covered by the Sea Ice. Sea Ice
helps insulate and maintain the ocean heat from the cold
atmosphere. The high Albedo property affects and restricts the
amount of sunlight being absorbed by the earth system.
Another major role they play is for the polar ecosystem and
supports many lives. The impact of melting of Sea Ice may
contribute to sea level rise since the fresh melted water is less
dense than the salty ocean water.
III.

MONITORING SEA ICE FORM SPACE

In general Sea Ice is measured in terms of extent over the

ocean. Using the satellite data available the Sea Ice extent is
estimated by adding up the area of number of pixels which are
greater than predefined threshold value. For example the
dataset used from the National Snow and Ice Data Center has a
pre defined threshold of at least 15 percent. Pixels having ice
percentage greater than 15% are all summed up.
Once the data is obtained the monthly and yearly mean for
different years have been calculated and plotted. The average
variation of the extent of Sea Ice from 1980 to 2015 is shown
in Fig 2. In Fig. 2 one can see the decreasing trend of the Sea
Ice extent around Arctic since year 1980.
Another important feature that can be seen from the data is
that the overall Sea Ice is found to have decreased from past
years independent of whether it is summers or winters. Or it
can be said that the overall temperature of the earth has
comparatively risen such that it is making summers warmer
and winters less cold. The statement can be confirmed form
the graphs in Fig 3 & 4. They illustrate the variation of monthly
mean Sea Ice extent for the Arctic summer (September) and
winter (March) month since 1980.

Second IEEE International Conference on Recent Advances and Innovations in Engineering (ICRAIE-2016) December 23-25, 2016,

Jaipur India

negative implies the decline. In Sea Ice terms the difference

since 1980 till 2015 is around 1.76 million sq km. Similarly the
rate of change extent for the summer month that is September
month is around -0.087 and for winter month that is March is
around -0.047. The major reasons for these decreasing rates
could be the overall rise in Earths temperature which is part of
global warming phenomenon. Today, because of the
greenhouse gas pollution, the Earths temperature is increasing
at a much faster rate than ever before. This can appear small,
but these small increases make big changes.

Figure 2. Illustrates the yearly mean Arctic Sea Ice extent variabilty for since
1980.

Another important conclusion that can be made from the

graph in Fig 2. is the cyclic behavior of Sea Ice extent which is
seen in past few years. The cycle starts from 2003 till 2007
demonstrating shrink of Sea Ice extent and than a sudden gain
or expansion in of Sea Ice extent from year 2007 to 2008.
Similarly the cycle of shrinking again starts from year 2008 till
2012 and then sudden expansion is seen from 2012 to 2013. If
this pattern of cycle is further followed than, we can say that
Sea Ice extent will shrink more in year 2014, 2015, 2016 &
2017 and will have sudden expansion in year from 2017 to
2018. Following the cycle a predictive Sea Ice extent status is
being tabulated in table 1. The table 1 only gives an idea about
the possibility of Sea Ice extent in the upcoming year according
to the past year data.
TABLE I.

PREDICTIVE CYCLIC BEHAVIOUR FOR UPCOMING YEARS OF

SEA ICE EXTENT

Year

Figure 3. Illustrates the monthly mean Arctic Sea Ice extent variabilty for the
summer month (September).

Figure 4. Illustrates the monthly mean Arctic Sea Ice extent variabilty for the
winter month (March)

IV.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Fig 2. Clearly illustrates that the Arctic Sea Ice extent is

decreasing with time since 1980. The rate of change of Sea Ice
extent since 1980 to 2015 is measured as -0.049 where

20122013
2014
2015
2016

Increment or
Decrement
Sudden Increment

Year

Decrement
Decrement
Decrement

2026
2027
20272028
2029
2030

Decrement
Decrement
Sudden Increment

Decrement
Decrement
Sudden Increment

Decrement

2025

2017
20172018
2019
2020
2021

Decrement
Sudden Increment

2022
20222023
2024

Decrement
Sudden Increment

2031
2032
20322033
2034
2035

Decrement

2036

Decrement
Decrement
Decrement

Increment or
Decrement
Decrement

Decrement
Decrement

Decrement
Decrement

One can more accurately understand the prediction with the

help of graph presented in Fig 5. This graph shows the Arctic
Sea Ice extent status for upcoming years that is upto 2036. The
trend line shows a negative nature with good correlation factor.
The trend itself can provide indicative approximate values of
Sea Ice extent for future years.

Second IEEE International Conference on Recent Advances and Innovations in Engineering (ICRAIE-2016) December 23-25, 2016,

Jaipur India

Figure 5. Illustrates the trend being followed by Arctic Sea Ice extent since 2003 upto 2036

Following the trend it is found that the approximate Sea Ice

extent in year 2036 will be around 9.438 million sq km. The
actual values could be above or below 9.438 million sq km but
will remain approximately around it. This continued melt of
Sea Ice and increase in temperature may lead to change in
global weather and precipitation patterns in the decades to
come.

[2]

[3]
[4]
[5]

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Authors would like to acknowledge NASA for making
Cryospheric data freely available. Authors are also thankful to
other staff of ICRS for providing constant support and help.

[6]

REFERENCES

[7]

[1]

All About the Cryosphere

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/allaboutcryosphere.html

OPN Calla, shruti singhal, Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trend over
Past Two Decade presented in National Symposium on Weather &
Climate Extremes, Chandigarh, Feb. 15-18, 2015, Chandigarh
All About Sea Ice
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/index.html
Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS)
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/ssmis_instrument/
National Snow and Ice Data Center
http://nsidc.org/
OPN Calla, Shruti Singhal, Kishan Lal Gadri & Abhishek Kalla
Antarctica Sea Ice Variability and Trend over Past Two Decade,
presented in International Conference on Microwaves, Antenna,
Propagation and Remote Sensing (ICMARS) 2014, December 2014.
OPN Calla & Shruti Singhal, Arctic and Antarctica Sea Ice Variability
contrast study for 1980-2012, presented in International Conference on
Microwaves, Antenna, Propagation and Remote Sensing, Jodhpur,
Rajasthan December 2015.