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INVESTMENT IDEA

PCG RESEARCH

03 Sep 2016

Camlin Fine Sciences


Industry

CMP

Recommendation

Buying Range

Target

Time Horizon

Specialty Chemicals

Rs. 85

BUY on Declines

Rs. 78 - 70

Rs. 99 - 117

12 to 18 months

HDFC Scrip Code

CamFin

BSE Code

532834

NSE Code

CamlinFine

Bloomberg

CFIN :IN

CMP as on 29 Jul16

85

Equity Capital (Rs Cr)

10.34

Face Value (Rs)

Equity O/S (Cr)

10.34

Market Cap (Rs cr)


Book Value (Rs)
Avg. 52 Week
Volumes
52 Week High

873
27
245530

52 Week Low

121
76

Shareholding Pattern (%)


Promoters

39.8

Institutions

15.0

Non Institutions

45.2

Kushal Rughani
kushal.rughani@hdfcsec.com
Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

Camlin Fine Sciences Ltd (Camlin) is a leading manufacturer of synthetic food antioxidants and
performance chemicals. Aroma (vanillin and ethyl Vanillin) is another area with huge potential
(market size 20,000 metric tons per annum (MTPA)) where the company is planning to expand
its footprint. Camlin is uniquely positioned with backward Hydroquinone (HQ) and Catechol
access via Borregaard) and forward linkages (blends and systems of Tertiary Butyl
Hydroquinone (TBHQ) and Butyl Hydroxy Anisole (BHA)). Moreover, Camlin announced a new
project at Dahej (capacity 15,000 MTPA) to manufacture HQ and Catechol (key raw materials) to
expand capacity. Dahej expansion would enable Camlin to make further hold into the Vanillin
market (Catechol produced would be diverted to manufacture Vanillin), which is currently
dominated by China. In July 2016, Camlin had raised Rs55cr through QIP by issuing 65 lakh
equity shares at Rs85 to Institutional Investors. Mega capex (Rs200-250cr) at Dahej for
backward integration of Hydroquinone (capacity 9,000MTA), Catechol (capacity 6,000MTA), and
highvalue downstream product Vanillin (capacity 6,000MTA); expects commissioning by FY18,
meaningful contribution from H2 FY19. Once Dahej facility becomes fully operational, even at
50% capacity utilization, Vanillin alone can add Rs100cr upwards to the top line of Camlin. We
expect company to post robust 32% revenue cagr over FY16-19E led by Greenfield capacity
expansion at Dahej and strong traction from existing business over FY16-19E. Robust sales
growth and strong operating performance to drive 43% EPS cagr over the same period. The
stock trades at ~8x FY19E earnings, which in our view is quite attractive considering robust
business outlook over the next three-five years (specially post FY18E). We initiate as BUY on
declines of Rs78 and Rs70 considering in the near term company lacks any major triggers. We
give target of Rs99 and Rs117 over the next 12-18 months based upon ~11x FY19E earnings.

Investment Rationale
Market leadership in food Anti-oxidant business
Food antioxidants help to extend the shelf life and are used in wide range of fried snack food, bakery,
confectionery, and dairy products. Camlin is the worlds largest manufacturer of TBHQ and BHA with market
share of ~40% and ~70% respectively. In the antioxidants business, Camlin is uniquely poised with both
backward (HQ and Catechol access via Camlin Europe) and forward linkages (blends and systems of TBHQ
and BHA). Backward integration has made the company cost competitive (captive access to raw materials)
while forward integration would help it expand product/revenue pipeline (enables launch of new
downstream products). As far as Clients concentration is concerned, Overall Camlin derived 51%, 49% and
47% of revenues from its top 10 customers in FY14, FY15 and FY16 respectively.

Page |1

PCG RESEARCH
Vanillin to be the key growth driver
Globally the Vanillin market has been valued at US$643mn in 2014 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5%
to reach US$885mn by 2020. This represents a huge opportunity for future growth. Going forward, company
intends to increase Vanillin and Ethyl Vanillin production to capitalise on the demand for this product and
market the same by leveraging on global reach. In a bid to expand its product portfolio, Camlin launched
aroma and flavoring compound Vanillin in 2012.
Vanillin is a key ingredient in the aroma market used in food, feed and fragrance industry. The basic raw
material to manufacture vanillin is Guaiacol, which in turn is produced from Catechol. Having captive access
to Catechol, it made easy entry into the vanillin market (natural forward integration move). We believe that
Camlin is favorably placed to capitalize on the high growth Vanillin market because of the preference of US
and European customers to have Vanillin produced via Guaiacol - Catechol route. Vanillin produced by other
cheaper route (via Ortho-Nitro-Chloro-Benzene-ONCB) results in quality and health concerns, but is
comparatively cheaper. This eliminates competitive pressures on the cost front from cheaper source
destinations such as China (Out of the total market size of 20,000 MTPA, 14-15,000 MTPA is produced in
China only). The 6,000 MT Catechol capacity at Dahej would be routed to manufacture Vanillin. Once the
Dahej capacity comes on stream, management expects Aroma segment (Vanillin) to contribute significantly
to the overall sales.
Anti-Oxidants business to support top line
In the food processing industry, antioxidants (synthetic and natural) are combined with other carriers to give
synergistic benefits. Such combinations are called as antioxidant blends. Camlin has two antioxidant blend
manufacturing facilities in India (launched in April 2014) and Brazil (launched in September 2014) with an
overall capacity of 500 MT of liquid blends. In simple terms, blends are a mixture of antioxidants and certain
vitamins that help extend shelf life of food products. They are customer specific in nature and require special
expertise to execute. The decision to enter into the blends business is likely to throw up new opportunities
for Camlin and support food antioxidant business.

Products Information
Guaiacol: Currently, a portion of production capacity of Guaiacol is produced through contract
manufacturing. Once the new manufacturing facility in Dahej, SEZ, is commissioned, we believe that
production capabilities of Guaiacol would increase substantially. Company intend to use the Guaiacol
manufactured to produce Vanillin and to also sell Vanillin as well as Guaiacol in Indian and overseas markets.

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

Page |2

PCG RESEARCH
Monomethyl Ether Hydroquinone (MEHQ): Manufacturing of MEHQ has started at Tarapur plant at the
end of the second quarter of 2015. Going forward, company intend to increase capacity facility and expand
its market reach.
Tertiary Butyl Catechol (TBC): This is an important polymerization inhibitor for the petrochemicals
industry. Camlin currently manufacture TBC at Khopoli through an outsourcing arrangement; company intend
to increase this capacity. Camlin also intend to continue to sell this product to companys customers in
Europe, South America, China, Middle East, Japan, Korea and South East Asia. Going forward, Camlin is also
considering setting up a warehouse in US to address the local market with reduced supply time
Veratrole: This product is an important intermediate for the pharmaceutical and agrochemical industry.
Camlin intend to increase its market share for this product and become a preferred supplier for this product.
Dahej expansion to boost performance post FY18E
Camlin is planning to start a new project at Dahej to manufacture HQ and Catechol. The approximate cost of
this project is pegged at Rs200-250cr with commissioning expected in H2 FY18. Dahej expansion is likely to
result in huge savings (labor, steam, and packaging cost would decline) since the cost of producing HQ and
Catechol at Borregaard (renamed as Camlin Europe) is high. That once fully operational by FY19, the Dahej
plant has potential to add Rs200-250cr to the top line. The approximate cost of Dahej project is pegged at
Rs200-250cr and expect it to get commissioned in H2 FY18. Camlin intends to spend ~Rs110cr, and ~Rs80cr
in FY17, and FY18 respectively towards the proposed expansion; already spent ~Rs35cr in FY16. Camlin
would fund the capex through Debt: Equity of 70%:30%. Company has already received principal approval
from banks for the proposed loan.

Financial Highlights
FY16 update
For FY16, antioxidants contributed to ~60% and performance chemicals to ~25% of sales. Its European
subsidiary contributed to 18% of sales. Camlin completed the acquisition of Mexican blender Dresen Quimica
in May 2016 for US$ 7.8mn, along with its five group companies in Mexico, Peru, Guatemal, Colombia, and
Dominican Republic. In CY15, Dresen clocked US$17mn sales and PBT of US$2.6mn.

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

Page |3

PCG RESEARCH
Q1 FY17 Update
Key highlights:
Consolidated sales for the quarter stood at Rs140cr, +14% yoy while EBITDA margin saw sharp contraction
to 11.2% on account of (1) production disruption in Italy subsidiary for a month period (for implementing
efficient technology with target to conserve energy and reduce wastage) and initial marketing spend to
launch antioxidant blends in USA. Thus, EBITDA declined 45% yoy to Rs16cr. Weak operating performance
and higher taxes dragged down PAT by 78% yoy to Rs 3cr. Standalone financials reported 3% sales growth
(Rs102cr) coupled with 160bps expansion in EBITDA margin (to 17.5%), resulting in 18% yoy growth in
profits to Rs7cr (despite higher tax - 36%).
Other Highlights
Camlin completed the acquisition of Mexican blender Dresen in May 2016 for US$7.8mn, which has
contributed sales of Rs 20cr in Q1. We believe Dresen would be earnings accretive from FY17E itself;
expect Rs90cr revenue and Rs5cr PAT in FY17 from Dresen.

During the quarter, companys Italy subsidiary undergone a technology upgradation phase and thus
led to production disruption for one month.

Camlin has set up Camlin North America, LLC, a 100% owned subsidiary in US, to focus on the
development, manufacturing and selling of customised antioxidant blends to the food, pet food and
animal feed industries. So the initial set up cost and sales team setup cost was Rs4cr in Q1 which
also impacted margin.

Camlin got environmental clearance for its green field capex (Rs200-250cr) at Dahej for Diphenols
and derivatives in Q1; We expect the unit to get commissioned by H2 FY18 and meaningful
contribution from FY19E.

Debt position & Outlook


Camlin has maintained DebttoEquity ratio in the range of 0.82x over last five years. In FY12, Camlins
debttoequity ratio wentup to ~2x, due to acquisition of Borregaard. As on FY16, the companys total debt
stood at Rs.180cr (1x D/E), which we expect to inch up to ~Rs280cr in FY18E, given the green field
expansion at Dahej. In July 2016, Camlin had raised Rs55cr through QIP by issuing 65 lakh equity shares at
Rs85 to Institutional Investors. However, we expect debttoequity ratio to stay at comfortable level of 0.5x
in FY19E.

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

Page |4

PCG RESEARCH
Valuations & Recommendation
Stock trades at ~8x FY19E earnings; Initiate as BUY
Entry into a high realization vanillin market and Dahej expansion makes Camlin a prime re-rating candidate.
The Dahej expansion would not only fuel growth (opens a new market for vanillin), but will also improve the
margin profile of Camlin. By FY18, once the Dahej capacity becomes fully operational, food antioxidants,
performance chemicals, and aroma would contribute significantly to the revenues of business. We believe
that expected change in business profile would lead to Re Rating of Camlin Fine Chemicals. Camlin has
posted 10% revenue and 34% PAT cagr over FY13-16 led by strong operational efficiencies and focus on high
margin products. We expect company to post robust 32% revenue cagr over FY16-19E led by greenfield
capacity expansion at Dahej and strong traction from existing segments (Anti-Oxidants and Performance
Chemicals) over FY16-19E. Robust sales growth and strong operating performance to drive 43% EPS cagr
over the same period. In FY19E we expect company to post 36% revenue and 65% PAT growth. The stock
trades at ~8x FY19E earnings, which in our view is quite attractive considering robust business outlook over
the next three-five years (specially post FY18E). We initiate as BUY on declines of Rs78 and Rs70 as in the
near term company lacks any major triggers; we give target price of Rs99 and Rs117 over the next 12-18
months based upon ~11x FY19E earnings.
Risks

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

Forward move into antioxidant blends could impact antioxidants sales in the near term

Adverse fluctuation in currency could impact overall profitability as 75% of its sales are export driven
and it import input materials from its Italy based subsidiary.

Any increase in competition from China could impact its performance

Longer than expected time in stabilization of Dahej facility would lead to lower Revenues and
Profitability; Increase in Debt level & Interest expenditure to hurt profitability

EBITDA margin deterioration due to production loss

Page |5

PCG RESEARCH

Financial Summary (Rs cr)


Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)

FY14
509
62
29
2.9
28.8
15.1
36.0

FY15
558
84
55
5.7
15.0
11.1
48.3

FY16
489
91
36
3.7
22.8
10.3
23.2

FY17E
659
115
46
4.4
19.1
8.1
21.7

FY18E
827
155
69
6.7
12.7
6.0
24.5

FY19E
1122
215
113
11.0
7.8
4.3
30.2

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

Page |6

PCG RESEARCH

Revenue to grow at 32% cagr over FY16-19E

EBITDA and PAT to witness strong momentum

1400

250

1122

1200

200

Rs Cr

1000

150

827
800
600

100

659
509

558

489

50

400

0
FY13

FY14

200
FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

FY15

FY16

EBITDA

FY19E

FY17

FY18E

FY19E

PAT

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Return Ratios (RoE/RoCE) (%)


55.0
45.0
35.0
25.0

15.0
5.0
FY15

FY16

FY17E

RoE

FY18E

FY19E

RoCE

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

Page |7

PCG RESEARCH

D/E to come down significantly even after Dahej Exp.

Operating Cash Flow to witness Uptick

300

125

1.7
1.5

1.5

Rs Cr

200

100

1.3
1.2

150

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.8

100

90

250

75

72

75

65

0.7
50

0.5 0.5

0
FY15

FY16

Debt

FY17E

FY18E

FY19E

25

Debt/Equity Ratio (RHS)

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

FY19E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Anti-Oxidant Revenues

Performance Chemicals Revenue Trend

350

150

300

125

Rs Cr

Rs Cr

31

0.3
FY14

46

50

250

100

200
75

150
50
FY13

100
FY13

FY14

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

FY15

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY16

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Page |8

PCG RESEARCH
Income Statement (Consolidated)

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

(Rs Cr)

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

FY19E

Net Revenue

509

558

489

659

827

1122

Growth (%)

36.1

9.6

-12.4

34.8

25.5

35.7

Operating Expenses

447

474

398

544

672

907

EBITDA

62

84

91

115

155

215

Growth (%)

30.8

36.5

7.8

27.0

34.7

38.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

12.1

15.1

18.5

17.5

18.8

19.1

Depreciation

12

16

17

22

30

38

EBIT

50

68

74

93

125

177

Other Income

10

15

20

Interest

25

23

24

29

34

30

PBT

35

53

50

72

106

167

Tax

-2

14

23

32

48

RPAT

29

55

36

46

69

113

Growth (%)

95.9

92.7

-34.5

27.3

51.0

63.2

EPS

2.9

5.7

3.7

4.4

6.7

11.0

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

(Rs Cr)
SOURCE OF FUNDS
Share Capital
Reserves
Shareholders' Funds
Long term Debt
Net Deferred Taxes
Other current Liabs
Long Term Provisions &
Others
Total Source of Funds
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block
Intangibles
Investment
Long Term Loans &
Advances
Total Non-Current Assets
Inventories
Trade Receivables
Cash & Equivalents
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Trade Payables
Other Current Liab &
Provisions
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Total Application of
Funds

FY14

FY19E

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

9
84
93
142
-4
28

10
125
135
160
-13
23

10
167
177
181
-12
27

10
263
274
268
-12
44

10
323
334
280
-12
55

10
428
438
228
-12
67

0
259

2
307

2
375

7
581

10
666

10
731

101
4
1

97
13
1

153
12
1

173
11
5

236
11
5

274
11
8

1
107
109
102
16
30
257
101

4
115
136
114
19
29
298
106

2
168
173
76
19
32
300
93

18
207
215
110
94
47
466
141

23
275
267
140
74
68
549
174

26
319
354
181
29
75
639
249

43
144
152

34
140
158

39
132
207

56
197
374

75
249
391

87
336
412

259

307

375

581

666

731

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

Page |9

PCG RESEARCH
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
(Rs Cr)

Reported PBT
Non-operating & EO
items
Interest Expenses
Depreciation
Working Capital
Change
Tax Paid
OPERATING CASH
FLOW ( a )
Capex
Free Cash Flow
Investments
Non-operating
income
INVESTING CASH
FLOW ( b )
Debt Issuance /
(Repaid)
Interest Expenses
FCFE
Share Capital
Issuance
Dividends
Financing Cash Flow
Net Cash Flow
(a+b+c)

FY14

FY15

Key Ratio (Consolidated)


FY16

FY17E

FY18E

FY19E

35

53

50

72

106

167

-10
25
12

-8
23
16

-8
24
17

-8
29
22

-15
34
30

-20
30
38

-7

-30

17

-18

-58

-77

-6

-14

-23

-32

-48

31
-33
16
0

46
1
57
0

72
-61
25
0

75
-35
40
-4

65
-75
-10
0

90
-47
43
-3

10

15

20

-23

-53

-31

-60

-30

-9
-25
-18

-1
-23
33

-6
-24
-5

70
-29
80

22
-34
-21

-25
-30
-12

0
-8
-42

0
-6
-30

0
-5
-35

1
-10
32

0
-13
-25

0
-22
-77

-34

25

-16

75

-20

-17

Key Ratios (%)


EBITDA Margin
EBIT Margin
APAT Margin
RoE
RoCE
Solvency Ratios
Net Debt/EBITDA
Net D/E
Interest Coverage
Per Share Data
EPS
CEPS
BV
Dividend
VALUATION
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV / Revenues
Dividend Yield (%)

FY19E

FY14
12.1
9.7
5.6
36.0
44.1

FY15
15.1
12.2
9.9
48.3
47.3

FY16
18.5
15.1
7.4
23.2
39.6

FY17E
17.5
14.2
7.0
21.7
32.2

FY18E
18.8
15.1
8.4
24.5
29.9

2.0
1.3
2.5

1.7
1.0
3.7

1.8
0.9
3.8

1.5
0.6
3.9

1.3
0.6
4.6

0.9
0.4
7.2

2.9
4.3
9.6
0.7

5.7
7.4
13.9
0.5

3.7
5.5
18.2
0.5

4.4
6.6
26.5
0.8

6.7
9.6
32.3
1.1

11.0
14.6
42.4
1.8

28.8
8.8
15.1
1.8
0.8

15.0
6.1
11.1
1.7
0.5

22.8
4.7
10.3
1.9
0.5

19.1
3.2
8.1
1.4
0.9

12.7
2.6
6.0
1.1
1.3

7.8
2.0
4.3
0.8
2.1

19.1
15.8
10.1
30.2
35.3

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

P a g e | 10

PCG RESEARCH

Price History

Sep-16

Aug-16

Jul-16

Jun-16

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

150
135
120
105
90
75
60
45
30
15

Rating Definition:
Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.
Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH

P a g e | 11

PCG RESEARCH
I, Kushal Rughani, MBA, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject
issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No
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officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg
(East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Above HDFC Bank, Astral Tower, Nr. Mithakali 6 Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat.
Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

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