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Modelling Task
January 2015
Table of Contents
1.
INTRODUCTION................................................................................................. 2
2.
3.
4.
5.
METHODOLOGY................................................................................................. 4
3.1.
General....................................................................................................... 4
3.2.
Tools............................................................................................................ 5
4.2.
TRANSIENT SIMULATION.............................................................................8
4.3.
TRANSPORT MODEL......................................................................................... 14
5.1.
TRANSPORT BY ADVECTION......................................................................14
5.2.
5.3.
6.
CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................. 19
7.
REFERENCES................................................................................................... 20
8.
ANNEX A.......................................................................................................... 20
List of Tables
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
List of Figures
Figure 1. Profile of Aquifer.......................................................................................... 3
Figure 2. Layer 1: Layout and Observation wells........................................................4
Figure 3. Layer 3: Layout and Observation wells........................................................4
Figure 4. Methodology to build Groundwater Flow model and Solute Transport model
................................................................................................................................... 5
Figure 5. Soil type and boundaries in Layer 1 (left), Layer 2 (center) and Layer3
(right)......................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 6. Hydraulic Head simulated in Steady State conditions for Layer 1 (Left),
Layer 2 (Center) and Layer 3 (Right)..........................................................................9
Figure 7. Cross Section profile of the first 100 m of the West boundary.....................9
Figure 8. Hydraulic Heads after 100 days of Pumping, Layer 1 (Left), Layer 2
(Center) and Layer 3 (Right)..................................................................................... 11
Figure 9. Scatter plot of Observed Vs. Simulated Hydraulic Heads before calibration
................................................................................................................................. 11
Figure 10. Hydraulic Head contour after Manual Calibration, Layer 1 (Left), Layer 2
(Center) and Layer 3 (Right)..................................................................................... 12
Figure 11. Scatter Plot of Observed Vs Simulated Hydraulic Heads after Manual
Calibration................................................................................................................ 12
Figure 12. Scatter Plot of Measured and Simulated Hydraulic Heads.......................13
Figure 13 . Hydraulic Heads for Summary calibration...............................................14
Figure 14 Particle Tracking for Transient flow without Pumping well (right) and with
Pumping well (left).................................................................................................... 15
Figure 15 Pollutant concentration for Layer 1 (left), Layer 3 (right) for the Case
without Pumping Well............................................................................................... 16
Figure 16 Pollutant concentrations observed in Well after 20 years without pumping
................................................................................................................................. 17
Figure 17. Pollutant concentration for Layer 1 (left) and Layer 3 (right) for the Case
with Pumping Well.................................................................................................... 17
Figure 18 Pollutant concentrations observed in Well after 20 years with pumping...18
Figure 19 Pollutant concentration for Layer 1 (with pumping well) for D L=10 [m]
(left) and 50 [m] (right) after 20 years.....................................................................19
Figure 20 Pollutant concentration and Concentration-Time curve at V1 for Layer 1
(with pumping well)
for n e=0.25 (sand) and 0.01
(clay) (up) and ne=0.5 (sand) and 0.05 (clay) (down)..............................................20
A pumping well located at coordinate (1450 m, 550 m) pumps at 2000 m/day. After
100 days of pumping, hydraulic heads are measured in the monitoring wells, the
values are indicated in Table 1.
Well
name
W1
X1
Y1
Z1
V1
Layer 1
X
Y
Observed head
(m)
100 100
35.2
0
0
130 130
34.7
0
0
145 750
33.8
0
170 250
32.1
0
155 450
33
0
Well
name
A3
B3
C3
D3
E3
Layer 3
X
Y
Observed head
(m)
750 850
35.6
115
0
150
175
0
125
0
105
0
105
0
550
34.9
550
34.2
37.2
32.3
Problem Statement
At the north-west of the study area (Figure 2) an industrial zone is source of
contamination and causes groundwater pollution in the aquifer. It is required to
determine if this groundwater pollution threatens the groundwater quality in the
river or in drinking water extraction well in layer 3.
Objectives
The main purpose of this work is to build a calibrated groundwater flow model and
solute transport model. The specific objectives are:
Groundwater Flow Model:
Describe and substantiate the different modelling steps and the conceptual
model of this hydrogeological model.
Build a transient model.
Calibrate the transient model using the measured heads from Table 1. Use
statistical indicators, hydraulic head contour maps and hydraulic head scatter
plots to judge calibration.
Use particle tracking to determine the transport time and direction of polluted
groundwater by advection with and without pumping in the pumping well.
Determine if polluted groundwater is flowing to the river or to the pumping
well and how long does it take for the pollution to reach the river or the
pumping well.
Calculate the concentration distribution of pollutants by transport by
advection and dispersion with and without pumping in the pumping well and
compare with particle tracking results.
Calculate and explain the effect of effective porosity and dispersion
coefficient on groundwater pollution.
3. METHODOLOGY
3.1.
General
Stead
y
State
Initial
h
Transien
t
Manual
Calibrati
on
Trial
and
Error
Automati
c
Calibrati
onPES
T
Statistics
h contours
maps and
Scatter plots
Best
Parameter
s
By Advection
-Flow
Direction
-Pumping
-No
pumping
By Advection
and
Dispersion
-Flow
Direction
-Time
-Flow
Direction
-Time
-
Changes in:
-Effective porosity
-Dispersion
coefficient
By Advection
and
Dispersion
Figure 4. Methodology to build Groundwater Flow model and Solute Transport model
3.2.
Tools
Where x, y and z correspond to the size of the grid, R is the retardation factor
and Dxx, Dyy, and Dzz are the components of the hydrodynamic dispersion
coefficient that can be calculated with:
Equation 2
Conceptual Model
The Steady State model was run to obtain Initial Prescribed Conditions for Transient
Model. The following conceptual model choices were considered:
Steady-state model
Model dimensions of 2000 m x 2000 m that correspond to natural boundaries
and Total thickness of 40 m. The grid size was set to 100 m x 100 m in order
to obtain a reasonable degree of accuracy and also considering the
dimensions of the ditch at the East and river at the West.
Layer characteristics (Table 2): The Second and Third Layers were defined as
Confined/Unconfined because of the sand hole in the Second Layer which
fully connects them with the upper and lower layer.
Property
First
Second
Third
Unconfined
Confined/Uncon
fined
Confined/Uncon
fined
Top
Elevation
40
Bottom
Elevation
20
20
10
10
Parameters
Boundary Conditions
As depicted in Figure 5, the Boundary conditions were: active cells in every cell of
the model, the no-flow boundaries at the North and South of the aquifer are defined
by the limit of the Area.
San
d
Cla
y
Figure 5. Soil type and boundaries in Layer 1 (left), Layer 2 (center) and
Layer3 (right)
River: At the East boundary the effect of flow between the river and the aquifer
were simulated with the River Package, the input required was Head in the river [m]
interpolated between 35 m at N and 30 m at S, Elevation of the Riverbed bottom
[m] equal to Head minus river depth and river bed (4 [m]) and River hydraulic
conductance CRIV [m2/h] calculated with the following formula:
Criv =
K rivLW riv
M riv
Equation 3
The model was run in Steady State mode; the resulting hydraulic heads for each
layer are presented in Figure 6. The values range from 30m at the South limit of the
river and 37m at the Northwest corner of the study area. In Figure 7, the presence
of clay in Layer 2 is represented by the change of direction of equipotential lines
from vertical to almost horizontal. Due to the sand hole located in the middle of
Layer 2, the bending of equipotential lines is only clear in the furthest sides of the
model.
Figure 6. Hydraulic Head simulated in Steady State conditions for Layer 1 (Left), Layer 2
(Center) and Layer 3 (Right)
Figure 7. Cross
4.2.
TRANSIENT SIMULATION
Conceptual Model
The following conceptual model choices were considered:
Transient-state model
Model dimensions are the same as for Steady State. In respect to the grid
size, where pumping well and observation boreholes are located, it was
reduced to 50 m x 50 m to increase the accuracy of hydraulic head
calculation in those regions.
Layer characteristics: The geometrical properties of the layers are the same
as for Steady State model. During a transient simulation the rate of change in
storage must be specified, thus, as indicated in Table 3 the input mode for
Storage Coefficient was switched to User Specified for Layers 2 and 3.
Layer
Property
First
Secon
d
Unconfined
Confined/Unconfined T
varies
Confined/Unconfined T
varies
Third
Storage
Coefficient
Calculated
User Specified
User Specified
Parameters
In respect to Time parameters, a transient period with duration of 100 days and a
time step of 2 days was specified.
Horizontal and Vertical Hydraulic conductivity for sand and clay were the
parameters to be calibrated. Effective porosity values were not changed from the
typical values specified for Steady state model.
The Initial and prescribed hydraulic Head values were loaded from the results of the
Steady State model.
The storage term for a confined layer is given by storativity, it depends on the
compressibility of the water and the elastic property of the soil matrix; it is
calculated with Equation 4:
S=Ssb
Equation 4
Where b is the Layer thickness [m] and Ss is the specific storage [m -1] defined as
the fraction of volume of water that a unit column of aquifer releases from storage
under a unit decline in hydraulic head.
In a phreatic or unconfined aquifer, the storage term is given by specific yield or
drainable porosity. Specific yield is defined as the volume of water that an
unconfined aquifer releases from storage per unit surface area of aquifer per unit
decline in the water table; it is a function of porosity. (Simcore Software, 2012)
In our model, Specific Yield was used to calculate rate of change in storage for Layer
1. For Layers 2 and 3 which are convertible between Confined and Unconfined with
Constant transmissivity, Specific storage equal to 0.1 was used when the layer is
fully saturated and specific yield when it is not.
In Table 4 a summary of all input parameters is presented.
Parameters
Horizontal Hydraulic Conductivity Sand
Horizontal Hydraulic Conductivity Clay
Vertical Hydraulic Conductivity Sand
Units
[m/day]
[m/day]
[m/day]
Initial
35
3
3.5
[m/day]
0.3
0.25
0.01
0.0001
0.02
0.25
0.01
Boundary Conditions
Boundary condition, recharge and river characteristics are the same as for Steady
state model. A pumping well is installed in layer 3 in the position (1450 m, 550 m)
with injection equal to negative 2000 [m3/day] and the 10 observation boreholes
(Table 1) are drawn in the aquifer.
Results
The model was run in Transient Flow conditions with pumping during 100 days,
hydraulic heads at the end of the period are shown in Figure 8. The pumping well
produces a drawdown of 2 m. An initial comparison between observed and
calculated hydraulic heads is presented in the Scatter plot in Figure 9, the degree of
dispersion from the bisector and the low value of the variance suggests that the
assumed initial parameters need small adjustment. In general, hydraulic head is
underestimated and more specifically in wells V1, Y1, E3 (near the well) and C3 in
less than 0.5 m, this underestimation indicates that Hydraulic Conductivity should
be increased.
Figure 8. Hydraulic Heads after 100 days of Pumping, Layer 1 (Left), Layer 2 (Center) and
Layer 3 (Right)
Figure 9. Scatter plot of Observed Vs. Simulated Hydraulic Heads before calibration
4.3.
The calibrated parameters were the Horizontal and Vertical Hydraulic Conductivity
corresponding to sand and clay. The evaluation of calibration was based on the error
Variance, Hydraulic head contours and Scatter plots of observed versus simulated
hydraulic head.
Results
The trial and error results for manual calibration are summarized in Table 5, the first
changes were made to KH and Kv for sand, as expected, increased Hydraulic
conductivity resulted in a reduction of Variance. The optimum values are K H=37
[m/day] and Kv=3.7 [m/day]. Afterwards, changes in K H and Kv for clay showed that
the optimum values are KH=2.5[m/day] and Kv=0.25[m/day].
Parameter
s
KH Sand
KH Clay
KV Sand
KV Clay
Variance
Units
Initial
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
[m/day]
[m/day]
[m/day]
[m/day]
[m/day]2
35
3
3.5
0.3
1.33E-03
30
3
3
0.3
1.44E-03
40
3
4
0.3
1.36E-03
37
3
3.7
0.3
1.33E-03
37
3.5
3.7
0.35
1.34E-03
37
2.5
3.7
0.25
1.25E-03
Figure 10. Hydraulic Head contour after Manual Calibration, Layer 1 (Left), Layer 2 (Center)
and Layer 3 (Right)
Figure 11. Scatter Plot of Observed Vs Simulated Hydraulic Heads after Manual Calibration
4.3.2.Automatic Calibration
The calibrated parameters were Horizontal Hydraulic Conductivity for sand and clay.
The evaluation of automatic calibration was based on statistical indicators such as
Sum of Squared Error SSE, error Variance, Hydraulic head contours and Scatter plots
of observed versus simulated hydraulic head. The time step was equal to 2 days.
Results
The optimum parameters are KH(sand)=30.5 [m/day] and KH(clay)=5, the objective
function reached a value of SSE=0.76. The change in parameter values do not
correlate with the changes made in Manual Calibration and the variation in contour
lines is imperceptible in the same way as for the scatter Plot shown in Figure 12.
In order to improve these results, other parameters as Storage Coefficient were
added to the calibration, however, the estimated parameters lacked physical
meaning and the values were set back to the original.
Summary of Calibration
The final hydraulic heads obtained from calibration are presented in Figure 13 and
the values in ANNEX A. The difference between the results is almost imperceptible
and the underestimation at four of the observation boreholes (maximum 50 [cm])
was not removed after automatic calibration. However, considering the values of
residuals and variance, the fit of both manual and automatic calibration is
acceptable.
Table 6 shows a statistics summary of Manual and Automatic Calibration that helped
to select the final best parameters. Considering that the aim is to minimize residual
spread and mean and maximize correlation, it is clear that the results obtained for
Manual Calibration have the best indicators; furthermore, the parameters have
realistic values that represent the study area.
SSE[m ]
Mean Residual [m]
Variance[m2]
R2
Before
0.68
0.197
1.33E-03
0.9935
Manual
0.67
0.191
1.25E-03
0.9936
Automatic
0.76
0.200
1.45E-03
0.9917
33
31
W1
X1
Y1
Z1
V1
Observation Borehole
Observed
36
35
Hydraulic Head [m] 34
33
After Manual Calibration
32
31
A3
B3
C3
D3
E3
Observation Borehole
4.3.3.Validation
Considering the availability of a new set of Hydraulic heads observation for a
different transient period, or steady state period, validation or verification of the
5. TRANSPORT MODEL
In this Section the calibrated Groundwater Flow model was used to assess the
transport time, direction and concentration of polluted groundwater from an
industrial area into the River or drinking water pumping well.
5.1.
TRANSPORT BY ADVECTION
The tool PMPATH was used to simulate Forward Particle Tracking and determine the
transport time and direction of polluted groundwater with and without pumping. The
industrial area was defined as indicated in Figure 2 and Particles were added in Face
5 (surface), the number NJ=1 and NI=1. The time step was set equal to one year.
Results
As seen in Figure 14, for the case of Transient flow without pumping well, the
particles flowed to the river, the first particles reached there after 11 years and the
last particles after 18 years. For the case of Transient flow with pumping well, the
particles got a little closer to the well but did not reach it. The first particle reached
the river in 12 years and the last particles after 18 years.
Figure 14 Particle Tracking for Transient flow without Pumping well (right) and with
Pumping well (left)
5.2.
Figure 15 Pollutant concentration for Layer 1 (left), Layer 3 (right) for the Case without
Pumping Well
Figure 17 shows the concentration of pollution after a 20 year period with pumping
well in Layer 1 and Layer 3. If the well pumps during a 20 year period, the direction
of the contaminated flow deviates in the direction of the well, but the concentration
in that area is lower than 2,5 [mg/m3] as shown in Figure 18.
However, most of the pollution still flows to the river but this time, the affected part
extends 600 m towards the most downstream part of the river and the maximum
concentration is approximately 9 [mg/m3], the reduction in respect to the case
without well is clearly explained by the fact that the well is pumping out part of the
contaminant.
Figure 17. Pollutant concentration for Layer 1 (left) and Layer 3 (right) for the Case with
Pumping Well
5.3.
In this Section we will evaluate the effect of change in Longitudinal Dispersivity [m]
and Effective Porosity in polluted flow direction, concentration after a determined
time and extension of contaminated area.
We will compare the results for an increase of Longitudinal Dispersivity from 10 [m]
to 50 [m] and for an increase of Effective Porosity of 0.25 (sand) and 0.01 (clay) to
0.5(sand) and 0.05 (clay). The evaluation will be performed in the condition of
pumping well and for Layer 1.
Results
a) Increase in Longitudinal Dispersivity from 10 [m] to 50 [m] (n e as
original)
Figure 19 Pollutant concentration for Layer 1 (with pumping well) for D L=10 [m] (left) and
50 [m] (right) after 20 years
boundary that the polluted area has reached with a minimal concentration along a
small distance of 50 m. This is explained by the fact that velocity of groundwater
varies inversely according to the size of the pores, an increase in n e means that the
effective area through which groundwater flows is larger and therefore velocity is
lower.
6. CONCLUSIONS
This study aimed to assess the contamination of groundwater in an aquifer by the
construction and analysis of a groundwater flow and a pollutant transport model.
The groundwater flow model was built and afterwards, hydraulic conductivities were
calibrated following manual and automatic approach. The statistical and graphical
evaluation (Var=1.25x10-3 [m2], R2=0.99, ME=0.19 [m]) suggested that the
parameters obtained with manual calibration represented the physical
characteristics of the aquifer in a better way.
The analysis of aquifer contamination was intended to assess the behavior of
pollutant transport in conditions with and without pumping well, when advection
and advection-dispersion are simulated and, when longitudinal dispersion and
effective porosity vary. The analyzed characteristics of polluted transport flow were
direction, transport time, extent and concentration. The results showed that the
direction of contaminated flow reaches the well (with a concentration of 2.4
[mg/m3]) only when diffusion is accounted for and after a period of 20 years, in the
other cases the river receives all contaminated water. In respect to transport time, it
was determined with PMPATH (only advection) that polluted particles reach the river
in a lapse of approximately 7 years after 11 years of the emission, on the other
hand, the results obtained with MT3MTS (advection and diffusion) showed that after
20 years of emission we expect that polluted flow reaches the river with a maximum
concentration of 17 [mg/m 3]. It was found that an increase of effective porosity and
longitudinal dispersivity lead to higher transport times and that the extent of
polluted groundwater area depends mainly on longitudinal dispersivity. Finally, the
concentration of pollutants decreases as transport time increases.
7. REFERENCES
B.P. Leonard, 1988. Universal Limiter for Transient Interpolation Modeling of the
Advective Transport Equations: The ULTIMATE Conservative Difference
Scheme (No. 1009 16). Institute for Computational Mechanics in Propulsion,
Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio.
Delgado, J.M.P.Q., 2007. Longitudinal and Transverse Dispersion in Porous Media.
Chem. Eng. Res. Des. 85, 12451252. doi:10.1205/cherd07017
De Smedt F., 2012. GROUNDWATER MODELLING Course Notes.
Johnson, A.I., 1967. Specific yield: compilation of specific yields for various
materials. US Government Printing Office.
Simcore Software, 2012. Manual Processing Modflow.
Stephens, D.B., Hsu, K.-C., Prieksat, M.A., Ankeny, M.D., Blandford, N., Roth, T.L.,
Kelsey, J.A., Whitworth, J.R., 1998. A comparison of estimated and calculated
effective porosity. Hydrogeol. J. 6, 156165.
Thangarajan M., 2007. Groundwater: Resource Evaluation, Augmentation,
Contamination, Restoration, Modeling and Management. Springer, India.
8. ANNEX A
Well
W1
X1
Y1
Z1
V1
Observ
ed
35.2
34.7
33.8
32.1
33
Automatic
Calibration
Calculat Residual
ed
35.037
0.163
34.689
0.011
33.374
0.426
32.082
0.018
32.687
0.313
Well
A3
B3
C3
Observ
ed
35.6
34.9
37.2
Hydraulic
Before
Calibration
Calculat Residu
ed
al
35.502
0.098
34.751
0.149
36.877
0.323
Head [m]
Manual
Calibration
Calculat Residu
ed
al
35.490
0.110
34.751
0.149
36.826
0.374
Automatic
Calibration
Calculat Residual
ed
35.558
0.042
34.718
0.182
36.924
0.276
D3
E3
32.3
34.2
32.314
33.672
-0.014
0.528
32.339
33.678
-0.039
0.522
32.324
33.612
-0.024
0.588