The Truth Behind Energy Project Economics

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Electrical Construction and Maintenance

By Scott Swaaley, Mazzetti Nash Lipsey Burch

Tue, 2012-05-01 15:07

The business decision to go green has never been more difficult. Between a variety of cash and tax incentives,
third-party ownership agreements, and the quest for a capital-free project, the business case can become
prohibitively complex. As a result, justifications get over-simplified, projects arent all they appear to be, and we
end up with nicely packaged projects yet only a vague understanding of the true economics behind them.
As a result, billions of dollars in jobs have been developed whose projected returns will never be realized.
Conversely, millions of dollars of savings will never be realized because projects never get off the ground in the
first place. With the energy industry promising to be the driver of a new economy, its our responsibility as
electrical professionals to understand the economic truths behind the business case. This can only be
accomplished, however, if you truly know how electric utilities bill for electricity (see SIDEBAR:
Understanding Your Electric Utility Bill below), how to decode that billing structure in terms of project
economics, and how to select and modify projects to yield the best results.
It all comes down to the most misunderstood of the energy contract complexities the positive cash flow, or
more specifically, the avoided cost. All energy projects share this economic basis. Whether the project is based
on demand response, on-site generation, or an energy efficiency retrofit, its feasibility depends on the same
thing: projected energy savings. These savings are based on a simple calculation and depend on the amount of
energy offset and avoided cost of energy (ACOE).
Positive cash flow = (energy offset)x (avoided cost of energy)
Because the energy offset is a known or contracted amount, the only unknown is the ACOE, which is defined as
the rate (per kWh) that a project relieves a customer from paying to the electric utility. If a customer installs a
solar panel that offsets 100kWh annually and his annual electric utility cost is reduced by $15 as a result
then the avoided cost of energy for that solar panel is $0.15 per kilowatt-hour (kWh). The ACOE is the absolute
basis for any energy project, as it defines the entire financial return. However, it typically achieves no more
attention than a blind average of past electric utility bills or a quick glance at an electric utility rate tariff. Due to
the dynamic nature of energy usage and rate tariffs, the ACOE cannot be empirically measured. Therefore,
customers are left with little other choice than to make these inaccurate approximations. The projects
real-world financial performance is equally immeasurable, leaving so many companies with an inaccurate
assessment of their projects value. In any other investment vehicle, this kind of ambiguity would be
unacceptable.
As we begin to explore how to properly calculate avoided cost, understand that these methods are meant for
commercial and industrial electric utility customers and do not represent an overall improvement or
degradation of energy project economics. These factors can swing either way, and the results are particular to a
specific technology, facility, and rate tariff combination.

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Calculating the ACOE

In order to understand this concept, lets walk through a few of the basic parameters involved in arriving at this
calculation.
The tariff For any ACOE calculation, you must know the current rate tariff of the facility under consideration.
For the following examples, we will use a common commercial rate tariff in California, Pacific Gas & Electric
(PG&E) Companys E-19 Secondary. Time of Use (TOU) rate tariffs like this one bill customers across multiple
billing categories, each with an associated metric/rate and differentiated by time of day and season. The
primary charge types are energy charges (which bill customers on a per-kWh basis for energy consumed) and
demand charges (which bill customers on a per-kW basis for their maximum rate of consumption in any given
period). Neglecting a great deal of less-significant rate categories for a moment (i.e., fixed costs, facility charges,
rate components, etc.), the PG&E 19S tariff can be summarized as shown inTable 1(click here to seeTable 1).
The data In order to properly calculate the avoided cost of a facility, you need to know the energy profile of the
facility. Luckily, some electric utilities offer historical TOU data, often as an Excel file, which details the facilitys
consumption in 15-min. intervals. The interval of choice is typically a year or 35,040 data points. This historical
data set is used to model the first year of a projects life so the more recent the data, the better the
approximation. The ACOE calculation also requires the energy profile of the proposed energy project, also as
15-min. interval data. This is another commonly overlooked detail of the calculation and impacts the ACOE by as
much as 30% in the following example(click here to seeTable 2).
Lets says a lighting retrofit reduces the consumption of luminaires by a known amount. In a warehouse that
operates 24/7, the impact of the luminaires would be spread across on-peak, partial-peak, and off-peak periods.
In contrast, an air-conditioning retrofit on the same warehouse would have a much higher avoided cost, because
its most active during hot afternoons and its energy profile coincides nicely with the higher on-peak and
partial-peak rates. Because the energy profiles and likewise the associated ACOE varies considerably
between various generation, efficiency, and demand response technologies, it is imperative that the projects
energy profile data be accurate.
As illustrated inFig. 1(click here to seeFig. 1), the projects energy profile can then be subtracted from the
facility load profile (on an interval by interval basis) in order to create a new effective energy profile for the
facility. This new effective energy profile is an approximation of what the facility profile would look like after the
project has been executed. You now have two distinct facility load profiles a before and an after and you can
run them through a bill generator in order to convert the offset kWh and kW into dollars. The difference between
these two bill cases provides you with the actual dollar amount offset by the project, which includes the
avoidance of both energy costs and demand costs, when applicable.
For simplified overall economic analysis, this dollar amount is then divided by the annual energy offset by the
project to produce the ACOE in dollars per kilowatt-hour ($ / kWh). For the following examples, we will use the
interval data of a 55,000-sq-ft medical office building, a summary of which is shown inFig. 1.

What impacts the ACOE?

There are three primary ways to impact avoided cost: the timing of the energy offset; demand coincidence; and
reliability.The higher the percentage of the energy offset that occurs in on-peak or partial-peak periods, the
higher the avoided cost. One of the best technologies at exploiting this trend is solar power, because it only
operates during daylight hours, and 80% of its impact is between the hours of 10 a.m. and 3 p.m. Solar systems
primarily offset on-peak and partial-peak periods (i.e., those with the highest rates). One of the worst
technologies at exploiting this trend would be a night lighting retrofit, as it would mostly offset energy during
off-peak times (i.e., off-peak rates).

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Demand coincidence, however, is a much more sensitive issue. In order for a projects energy profile to coincide
with a facilitys demand profile, it must (a) be offsetting energy at the same time that the facility is experiencing
maximum consumption, and (b) persist for the entirety of the TOU period or until the facilitys consumption
declines. The technologies that best exploit this are base-load or 24/7 technologies, such as fuel cells, co-gen
systems, or efficiency retrofits for high-demand equipment.
However, even if a projects energy profile perfectly coincides with a facilitys demand profile, it must be reliable.
If a project offsets 100% of the demand, for 99% of a billing period, it does not avoid any demand cost. It only
takes one poorly timed 15-min. interval of high facility demand and low energy offset to result in a project
achieving $0 of demand savings for that billing period. Without even considering the temporary failure of
equipment, this is an enormous issue for technologies like solar, which have an energy profile that can swing
wildly based on weather conditions. Once equipment failure or maintenance is considered, the only way to take
this unfortunate reality into account is to either (a) insert such outages strategically into the performance profile
of your technology, or (b) provide contractual means with the equipment provider to make the customer whole
for such outages. Both strategies are effective and common, but in reality, many projects only avoid some
demand cost. The variability inherent in the interval model demonstrates this as long as the projects
performance data accurately reflects the expected performance of the equipment. Examples of a demand
coincidence and reliability situations are shown inFigs. 2and3.(click here to seeFig. 2)and(click here to seeFig.
3).
For the medical office building, under the PG&E E-19S rate tariff, Table 2 shows the results of this type of
analysis. In some cases, the post-project energy profile may even lend itself to an entirely different electric utility
tariff. The ACOE is also shown in Table 2 for a PG&E A-6 tariff, which is heavily weighted toward energy costs
and almost entirely removes demand costs. In some cases, the opportunity can be extremely lucrative, but
electric utility policies and restrictions must be studied thoroughly before including this assumption in a
business case.

The Rest of the Story

Armed with this method of analysis, the ACOE can be merged with the rest of the economic business
case.Because the ACOE calculated here determines the present day avoided cost, that value must be escalated
up to the expected year of project commissioning as well as annually throughout the life of the project. The
per-year escalation is another complex and commonly misunderstood topic well outside the scope of this
article but should include not only the expected increases in energy costs over time, but also upcoming
political/industrial assumptions and the general trend toward dynamic pricing, which is destined to significantly
increase the value of demand avoidance.
As the business case develops, at least one member of the team should understand the details of avoided cost,
including the relevant rate tariff rules, regulations, and restrictions. Aside from a requisite understanding to
develop the economic case, a thorough understanding will ultimately lead to significant advantages in bidding
work, insights into the value of the various contracting means (including opportunities for advanced
performance contracting), and in legally protecting the financial performance of the project through contractual
performance obligations.
Swaaley is a licensed professional engineer and renewable energy consultant at Mazzetti Nash Lipsey Burch,
San Francisco. He can be reached atscott.j.swaaley@gmail.com.

To truly comprehend avoided cost, you must first understand how electric utilities bill for electricity, specifically

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time of use (TOU) pricing. TOU rate tariffs bill customers across multiple billing categories, each with an
associated metric and rate, and differentiated by time of day and season. These time-based periods are referred
to as TOU periods and typically include: winter on-peak, winter partial-peak, winter off-peak, summer on-peak,
summer partial-peak, and summer off-peak as shown in theTable(click here to see Table). The on-peak
designation illustrates that the time period is associated with a regions highest electrical demands and,
subsequently, the highest unit cost.
In addition to the TOU periods, there are two primary charge types: energy charges and demand charges. The
differentiation between these two charge types is significant.
Energy charges bill customers on a per-kilowatt-hour (kWh) basis. A kWh is a measure of the energy consumed
by a facility in a given period of time. For example, based on the Table, a component of a customers July
electric utility bill would be summer on-peak energy. This quantity would be the sum of all the energy consumed
by the customer in July between the hours of 12:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. (neglecting weekends and holidays).
Demand charges bill customers on a per-kilowatt (kW) basis. A kW is a measure of power, an instantaneous
measurement of energy consumption. From another perspective, power is to energy (kW to kWh) as speed is to
distance (mile-per-hour to mile). Power and speed are instantaneous measurements whereas energy and
distance are the latter applied over time.
Demand charges, however, add one additional step. They bill based on the maximum demand in a given TOU
period. So while energy measurements accumulate based on actual consumption, much like your odometer
would accumulate miles, demand charges are based on the maximum power reached within a particular period
(i.e., the maximum point reached by your speedometer). If youre facility averages a 200kW load in a given
period, but some anomaly causes a temporary spike in demand up to 400kW, you are charged for the 400kW
demand even if the anomaly only lasted for a short time.
Considering that demand charges account for as much as 40% of a typical customers bill, these charges may
seem outrageous, but electric utilities have just cause. While the commodity (energy) is the thing actually
consumed, electric utilities are required to have the infrastructure in place to serve your instantaneous needs
when they spike temporarily. In 2008, the California Independent System Operator (CALISO) reported that 5%
of its required infrastructure was in operation only 0.2% of the time, and that 10% of their required
infrastructure was in operation only 0.6% of the time. So, in essence, demand charges fund that inefficiency.
The avoidance of demand charges is an art of sorts, and is becoming the basis for an entire industry of
technology. It also represents a significant opportunity for advanced commissioning services. If a particular
project can be aligned in such a way that it reliably reduces a facilitys demand, then the financial return can be
significant. However, if that avoidance is not realized in the field, it can spell disaster for a projects economics.
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