SeaIntel Maritime Analysis

www.seaintel.com

SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight

Weekly
Indicators

February 24, 2013 Issue 100

18. Feb 24. Feb,

2013

Lars.Jensen

Executive Summary
Asia-Europe capacity 2013
-

The delivery of new container vessels will result in 11% capacity growth in the main
Shanghai
USWC spot
rate

Asia-Europe trade by Q4 2013 unless services are removed.

Freight Index correlations

-

A closer look at the 5 main freight indices available reveal pros and cons of their

+179
USD/TEU

usage in index-linked contracts

Consumer expectations in the US

-

Consumer feedback gathered 13-17 February depicts a quite bleak outlook for
consumer spending in the next 3 months

461M USD

Bonus articles
-

Maersk
Line profit
2012

As this is an anniversary issue of the SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight we have added an

additional 3 bonus articles on Pacific Island trade, vessel names and Africa

Content
Asia-Europe capacity rest of 2013

Page 1

Freight rate index correlations

Page 5

Consumer expectations in the US

Page 9

Liner Trade within the Pacific Ocean

Page 11

Operational incidents in Africa

Page 16

The art of naming a container vessel

Page 18

New January 2013

Up-to-date port information

issue of Global Liner

consultancy services

Performance report
available!

For tailor-made

1
www.portoverview.com

and solutions
contact l.jensen@seaintel.com

Asia-Med
SCFI spot
rate
-110
USD/TEU

India port
handling
-1.5%

Editorial
Welcome to issue number 100 of the SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight. From the start in early 2011, we have strived to
provide information and analysis with either a new analytical angle, or with new data compared to other
container shipping media. Based on a feedback, we find that quite a number of readers do find this newsletter to
be of relevance, and we thank you for this. Over the course of the past 99 issues, we have also regularly received
feedback from readers who disagreed with specific articles we welcome such input as this helps us improve and
sharpen the analysis we perform, and we do continue to encourage readers to provide their input and
comments. Performing analysis requires methodological choices, both in terms of the analysis itself, but also in
the retrieval of base data and at times multiple choices are indeed available. We always strive to make it clear
which choices we make, in order to allow readers to become enlightened, but at the same time provide a
framework for understanding how conclusions might differ, should they be in possession of other data, or see
the world through a different analytical prism.
With this being issue number 100, we have used the opportunity to redesign the newsletter, and as it is an
anniversary edition, we have included more content than usual. We hope you will find our new layout to be an
improvement, and please continue to provide your feedback positive or negative.

Asia-Europe capacity for rest of 2013

As more 10,000+ TEU vessels are introduced in 2013, what are the
implications for weekly capacity, capacity market share and weekly
variability on Asia-Europe?
46 new 10,000+ TEU vessels are expected to be

Demand on the Asia-Europe trade has been

delivered from the shipyards in 2013, with Maersk

disappointing in 2012, caused by the economic

Lines 18.000 TEU mastodons as the largest ones.

recession in the South European countries and slow

Most, if not all, of these large vessels must be

growth in North Europa, and current projections are

expected to be introduced on the Asia-Europe

not showing major positive changes in the near

trade, as sailing distance, port productivity and

future.

operational capabilities for 10,000+ TEU are most

The carriers responses to the disappointing demand

optimal on this trade lane.

have been blanking of sailings and withdrawals of

entire strings, as documented in earlier issues of

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight. This is an eminently

Asia-Europe trade. We have only assumed that the

sensible strategy for carriers, if freight rates are to

carriers will introduce new-buildings in excess of

remain

regular

10,000 TEU, as smaller vessels will have higher

shippers may not be particularly keen on blanked

operating expenses per slot, and hence will have a

sailings and see this as a degradation of service

hard time competing with the larger vessels already

levels.

operating in this trade.

The current situation is that 10.000+ TEU vessels are

46 vessels over 10,000 TEU will be finished in 2013,

being phased in, and carriers have not announced

and we have assumed all 46 new-buildings will be

any further capacity reductions. Consequently,

used on the Asia-Europe trade. We have assumed

capacity will increase in the Asia-Europe trade in

this as most of the 46 new-buildings are part of

2013.

series, where their sister-vessels are already used on

at

profitable

levels.

However,

Asia-Europe services.

Therefore will we in this anniversary edition of the

SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight try to estimate the weekly

The second assumption we have made is that the

capacity developments for full year 2013 based on

carriers maintain their current service network

the delivery, phase-in and cascading of individual

structure for the rest of 2013. This means that we

vessels, but without the introduction of new

have assumed that G6 will not reinstate Loop 3 and

services.

Maersk Line will not reinstate AE5 during the year.

We have also excluded Maersk Lines AE9, which
they have announced will be reinstated in April in

Methodology

combination with their TP7-service.

At first we will define the trade we are analyzing. We

However, as Maersk Line has announced that the

define Asian ports as ports located east of

TP7/AE9 will begin to sail through the Suez canal,

Myanmar, and European ports as ports in the

calling Europe before continuing to USEC, it is not

Mediterranean, Black Sea and North Europe.

possible to place a specific number on how much

capacity is allocated from Asia to Europe, and how

In order to project the capacity developments in

much is allocated from Asia to USEC, and therefore

2013, a number of assumptions have to be made

we have excluded the AE9 service from the analysis

concerning which new-buildings will be introduced

on the presumption that it will be primarily used for

into the Asia-Europe trade, which vessels they will

Asia-USEC trade.

replace, and what will happen to the vessels the

new-buildings replace. These assumptions are as

We then used SeaIntels weekly variability database,

follows.

which tracks the actual week-to-week deployment

for the coming 12 weeks and hence the actual

The first assumption we have made concerns which

capacity per week, and then extended the current

new-buildings we expect will be introduced into the

deployment on the Asia-Europe service to the rest

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

of the year. If there currently were
two vessels on the same service on
the same week, we assumed that
only the larger of the two vessels
would continue, and we also took
out blanked

sailings. The only

blanked sailings included are those

which
through

are
the

already

announced

carriers

published

schedules. We then began to add

the 46 new-buildings as they are
projected to be delivered.
We added the new-buildings into
the sailing schedule by first checking if the new-

After plotting in all the new-buildings, we blanked

building is part of a series which is already operating

sailings around Chinese Golden Week in October,

on the Asia-Europe service. If the new-building are

on the same services as was blanked by the carriers

part of a series, for example the CMA CGM Jules

in 2012.

Verne, we assumed that the CMA CGM Jules Verne

With all the new-buildings, cascading and blanked

would be introduced on the same service as its

sailings added to the capacity outlook, we now have

sister ships, replacing one of the CMA CGMs

projections for the capacity developments for the

smaller vessels on that service, in this case the CMA

rest of 2013.

CGM Margrit.

Projected capacity developments

We then compared the smaller vessels capacity, for

example the CMA CGM Margrit, with CMA CGMs

Figure 1 shows the projected capacity developments

other vessels on the Asia-Europe trade, and if CMA

for

CGM Margrit was larger than other CMA CGM

developments in 2012.

2013,

as

well

as

the

weekly

capacity

operated vessels on the Asia-Europe trade, we then

replaced this vessel with CMA CGM Margrit. This

The large dips in capacity in the beginning of both

basically assumes that the carriers will actively

2012 and 2013 are caused by low demand, and

cascade vessels in an effort to minimize unit costs.

corresponding blanked sailings, resulting from the

Chinese New Year. However the Chinese New Year

We have assumed that Emma Maersk will be

does not fall the same time every year, which is the

repaired in time for her to depart from Asia in June,

reason for the displacement between the two years.

which corresponds with the latest announcements

The large dips in week 40 are both caused by

from Maersk Line.

Chinese Golden Week. The capacity reduction

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

around Golden Week in 2013 is a little lower than it

throughout the year. If we look towards the end of

was in 2012, as we in our projections blanked

2013 when all vessels are being phased in, we find

sailings on the same services, as the carriers did in

that the capacity growth will reach 11% year on year

2012, however as some of these services have been

and hence we need to see either an unrealistically

cancelled

large

completely,

the

seasonally

blanked

sailings do not get the same effect.

demand

growth,

or

carriers

need

to

contemplate the termination of potentially as much

as 4 weekly services in total, in order to maintain the

In table 1 it can also be seen that even with the

supply/demand balance in the absence of material

cancelled services on Asia-Europe, the influx of

Asia-Europe demand growth.

larger vessels more than offset the capacity

reductions instituted by the carriers in 2012.

Weekly variability

In 2012 the average weekly capacity was 342,000

As more of the larger vessels are phased into the

TEU, while we in 2013 project it to increase 8 % to

Asia-Europe trade and more of 10,000+ TEU vessel-

around 369,000 TEU a week.

series are finished, it should be expected that the

weekly variability, the change in capacity from one

This means that if demand on the Asia-Europa trade

week to another, decreases. We have previously

does not grow this year, three additional services

analyzed this topic and find a quite high degree of

with average sized vessels will have to be pulled,

variability, seemingly stemming from the fact that

just to maintain the current supply/demand balance.

multiple services are in the process of being

If demand grows 2.5% two services would need to

upgraded to larger vessel series.

be pulled to keep the same utilization level and if

demand grows 5%, only one service needs to be

Figure 2 shows the week-on-week percentage

pulled.

change in capacity due to the varying vessel sizes,

as well as due to the blanked sailings. Chinese New

However, it can also be seen in figure 1 that the

Year and Golden Week show up as very significant

capacity growth in 2013 versus 2012 is not stable

spikes. Disregarding these spikes, it is also clear

from figure 2 that the magnitude of fluctuations
in 2012 is larger than in 2013. If we consider the
entire calendar year, we find that the median
fluctuation in 2012 i.e. the point where 50%
are larger and 50% are smaller was 17.700TEU,
whereas in 2013 it is currently projected to be
9.800TEU.
The

level

of

capacity

fluctuation

is

thus

projected to be reduced considerably which

should

indicate

more

stable

trade

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

slots each carrier has on board each service, as most
services are operated by a number of partners and
slot charterers.
The way we have chosen to solve this, is by
grouping the carriers together, by focusing on the
big three, CMA CGM, Maersk Line and MSC, and the
two main alliances on the Asia-Europe trade, G6 and
CKYH. This does not completely remove the
methodology problem, but it reduces it greatly, as
environment. However, it must in this context be

the three carriers CMA CGM, Maersk Line and MSC

kept in mind that the projection for 2013 does not

mainly

include additional blanked sailings beyond those

cooperation with each other: Maersk Line with CMA

already known, as well as those anticipated for

CGM and CMA CGM with MSC. For G6 and CKYH

Golden week. The introduction of blanked sailings

the picture is slightly more clear-cut. Minor

later in 2013 will thus result in an increase in the

exceptions exist, but we will disregard these in our

fluctuations as well.

calculations.

Changes in capacity market share

Figure 3 shows the CKYH, G6 and combined CMA

operates

services

on

Asia-Europe

in

CGM, Maersk Line and MSC capacity market share

A carriers market share depends on two things: the

(nominal) for 2012 and our projections for 2013.

number of slots available on a trade and how many

Figure 4 shows the capacity market share in

of these slots the carrier is actually able to fill. As

percentages. The market share is an average of their

only the carriers themselves know their future

weekly capacity in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

freight rates, service levels and strategies, we can

only with some certainty project one side of the

From figure 3 can it be seen that all three alliances

equation - namely the number of slots the carriers

will offer for sale on the Asia-Europe trade.
As the different carriers do not receive the same
number of new-buildings in 2013, they will also
introduce a different number of larger vessels on
the Asia-Europe trade, but does this mean that their
capacity market share will change?
Before we can answer this question we need to
address a methodological problem related to
assessing the carriers capacity market share. The
problem is how to determine exactly how many

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

according to our projections have increased their

8% from 2012 to 2013, meaning 27,000 extra slots

average weekly capacity with around 10,000 TEU

are available every week on average. In the fourth

from 2012 to 2013, and this is in spite of all three

quarter of 2013 these numbers will be 11% and

alliances have cancelled services during 2012 and

38.000TEU, respectively.

2013.

If the European consumers do not re-ignite Asian

Figure 4 shows that according to our projections,

import growth in the near future, it must be

CMA CGM, Maersk Line and MSC combined lose

expected that one of two scenarios will happen

around 1% capacity market share on the Asia-

during 2013.

Europe trade in 2013. G6 and CKYH both seem to

One scenario is that the carriers initiate further

gain around 1.5% in capacity market share in 2013

capacity

compared to 2012.

reductions,

offsetting

the

capacity

injections caused by the larger vessels being

However as 1% in capacity market share equals

introduced into the trade this would entail up to 4

approximately 4,000 TEU, a reactivation of AE5 or

weekly services being cancelled by the end of the

Loop 3 will greatly offset our projected capacity

year.

market share.

The other scenario is that the carriers do not make

Conclusion

such drastic capacity reductions, and hence the

freight rates will come under immense pressure.

Our projections shows that the average weekly

capacity for the Europe-Asia trade will grow around

Freight rate index correlations

A closer look at the 5 available freight rate indices reveal that 4 are
tightly correlated, whereas the TSA index differs significantly
As we continue to see a growing interest for index-

We do not have access to confidential service

linked contracts, the question as to which index to

contracts allowing a clear comparison between the

actually use becomes ever more important.

rate indices and the service contract rates, however

we can analyze to which extent the different indices

After all, the key pre-requisite for using an index-

are correlated.

linked contract is a re-assurance that the index

actually moves in accordance with the freight rates

We have confined our analysis to the two main haul

which would be experienced in the absence of such

routes from Asia to North Europe and Asia to US

a contract.

West Coast.

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

The current indices

the other part acting as a price stabilization tool

is a business objective and nor an objective data

The container shipping market currently has 5 main

provision.

freight rate indices available:

Methodology

Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI)

China Container Freight Index (CCFI)

The freight indices have been available for varying

World Container Index (WCI)

periods of time, and some have undergone

Container Trade Statistics (CTS)

developments in the early phases following launch.

Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA)

In order to provide an unbiased assessment where

The SCFI and WCI indices measure spot rates,

the different lifespans of the indices do not

whereas CCFI, CTS and TSA measures contract rate

interfere, we have chosen to only analyze the

developments.

developments from 1 January 2012 to the present

date.

The SCFI and WCI measures rates in USD, whereas

the other three measure on a pure index basis.

The SCFI, CCFI and WCI are available as weekly

indices, whereas the CTS and TSA are only available

From a methodological standpoint, the TSA index

monthly indices. Furthermore, the CTS and TSA data

differs materially from the other 4 indices. The other

are only available up until December 2012.

4 indices basically measure the ocean freight rate,

inclusive of ocean-related surcharges such as BAF,

Consequently we have analyzed the SCFI, CCFI and

Aden Gulf Surcharges etc although CTS also

WCI against each other based on weekly data,

includes THC. The TSA index, however, excludes BAF

whereas inclusion of TSA and CTS data are done

from the calculation but instead includes an

using monthly averages of the CCFI, SCFI and WCI

unknown element of inland haulage.

data.

The SCFI, CCFI, WCI and CTS all, with varying

As the TSA index is only relevant for Asia to North

language, have as their purpose to provide data

America, it is not included in the analysis for Asia-

reflecting developments in freight rates be that

North Europe.

spot or contract rates. The TSA state their purpose

Asia-North Europe

differently. They explicitly state it as: The TSA index

serves a specific purpose tracking revenue trends

Figure 5 shows the relative developments in freight

that can be applied in longer-term contracts and as

rates according to each of the 4 indices. In order to

a pricing stabilization tool. From a methodological

compare all 4 indices on an equal basis, they have

approach this means they potentially have 2

all been cast in the shape of an index, where we

conflicting goals. One is to track revenue trends,

have set the rate in first week of July 2012 as index

which is an objective and unbiased focus, whereas

100.

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

whereas table 2 is based on monthly
data for all 4 indices, with weekly data
being

averaged

over

calendar

months.
Some of the correlations are higher in
table 2 than in table 1 such as the
WCI-SCFI correlation. This is due to
the reduction in the number of data
points going from weekly to monthly
data.
We

It is immediately apparent from figure 5 that the

can

draw

number

of

conclusions based on tables 1 and 2 in conjunction

contract rates are much less volatile than the spot

rates. Volatility can be measured in quite a number

Table 1: Weekly data correlation

Asia-N.Europe
WCI
SCFI
95%
WCI
CCFI
88%
SCFI
CCFI
83%

of ways some quite sophisticated, mathematically

speaking. We have chosen a more simplistic
approach and simply calculated the standard
deviation of each of the indices as a measure of
their volatility. This is illustrated in figure 6.

Table 2: Monthly data correlation

Asia-N.Europe
WCI
SCFI
99%
WCI
CCFI
92%
WCI
CTS
97%
SCFI
CCFI
88%
SCFI
CTS
96%
CCFI
CTS
94%

From figure 6 we can clearly see how the WCI index

is the most volatile index and CTS is the least
volatile index.
Tables 1 and 2 show the correlations between the
various indices. Table 1 is based on the weekly data
for the 3 indices for which such data is available,

with figures 5 and 6.

First we notice that the WCI and SCFI indices are
very highly correlated this means that the
underlying

rate

development

they

depict

is

essentially the same. Hence an index-linked contract

will be the same, irrespective of whether one uses
SCFI or WCI. However, if one intends to also use
freight derivatives, it must be noted that these are
presently linked to the SCFI and hence a residual

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

risk will be taken on, if the WCI is used in the
underlying contract.
We also see that the degree of correlation to the
contract rates is quite high in relation to the CTS
data, but it declines somewhat in relation to the
CCFI contract data. WCI, SCFI and CTS thus seem to
all depict the same development, although the
volatility is drastically reduced for CTS whereas the
CCFI includes some minor developments not quite

One observation becomes clear from figure 7 the

captured in the other indices.

TSA index appears substantially less volatile than

Asia-USWC

even the other contract rate indices. Figure 8 shows

the calculation of the volatility of each of the 5

For the Asia to USWC we have the additional TSA

indices, using the same methodology as in the

index to include, and the development of the 5

previous section. Here it is clearly seen just how low

indices is shown in figure 7. Similar to the previous

the volatility of the TSA index is.

section, we have turned all 5 into indices based on

first week of July 2012 equal to index 100, in order

Tables 3 and 4 show the correlations between the

to make a straight comparison.

individual indices. A pattern we see repeated from

the previous section is that the CCFI contract index
has a low degree of correlation with the two spot

Table 3: Weekly data correlation

Asia-USWC
WCI
SCFI
95%
WCI
CCFI
86%
SCFI
CCFI
84%

indices. However, it is interesting to note that the

correlation between the TSA index and the other
indices is quite high, despite the very significant
difference in volatility.
Conclusions

Table 4: Monthly data correlation

Asia-USWC
WCI
SCFI
98%
WCI
CCFI
89%
WCI
CTS
98%
WCI
TSA
96%
SCFI
CCFI
88%
SCFI
CTS
96%
SCFI
TSA
95%
CCFI
CTS
94%
CCFI
TSA
94%
CTS
TSA
96%

Based on the analysis we can conclude that despite

the differences in definitions, the 5 indices do depict
the same market development to a fairly high
degree. The CCFI index differs slightly, whereas the
other 4 are indeed quite tightly correlated.

10

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

For customers wanting to use the index linked
contracts to follow the market, but at the same time
reduce the volatility inherent in the spot market, the
CTS, CCFI and TSA indices all offer a solution
however with a few caveats. The low correlation to
the

CCFI

index

might

indicate

that

price

developments could differ from the customers

expectation, hence reducing the level of confidence
in such a contract. For a shipper using the TSA

However, it is also crucial to note the difference in

contract index, it is very important to note that the

volatility across the indices. Depending on ones

index does not include BAF, and the high correlation

perspective, high volatility is either good or bad. For

seen in 2012 could quickly be reduced if oil prices

a shipper mainly using the spot market and in this

were to change significantly. Furthermore, the

context a fixed annual contract rate which is

shipper needs to closely contemplate whether the

renegotiated often quickly qualifies as a de-facto

exposure to inland points mirrors the TSA index.

spot rate an index linked contract to the SCFI or

WCI index would ensure freight rates closely

But when one takes these methodological concerns

mirroring the developments they would otherwise

into account, it is clear that shippers as well as

obtain themselves. If the shipper wants the index

carriers have ample opportunity to use market

linked contract to follow such rapid changes, these

indices as part of their contracting process.

indices are particularly well suited.

Consumer expectations in the US

Recent consumer expectation data points to bleak outlook for the US
economy
Recent

numbers

from

the

US

Commerce

an open question as to whether the US is indeed

Department showed that the US economic growth

heading into yet another recession or not.

slipped slightly below zero in Q4 2012. As such

However; newly issued data show that a negative

number are subject to subsequent revisions, it is still

outlook for the US might unfortunately be

warranted.

11

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

Every month, the Institute for Business Cycle

developments.

Analysis measures consumer expectations across at

www.consumerdemand.com.

least 1.000 households in the US. The purpose of

Data

are

available

through

The newly issued February report is based on

the analysis is to measure consumers expectation as

consumer feedback in the period 13-17 February

to their buying behavior for the coming 3 months

2013, and thus represents data depicting the

across a range of durable as well as non-durable

situation right now in the US.

commodities. The consumer expectations have been

measured consistently since 2001, and thus provide

For some indices, the consumers are even more

a significant data series in terms of relative

pessimistic as to their own buying behavior as they

12

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

were when the financial crisis hit the economy.

financial crisis, however it would also appear that

the slow, but steady, improvement seen since the

Figure 9 shows the expectations as they pertain to

depths of the market in 2009 has been reversed and

durable goods in general, as specifically for

replaced by a slow decline since spring 2012 a

furniture, white goods and radios and TVs

trend which has even accelerated in the last couple

commodities which account for significant volume

developments

on

the

Transpacific

trade.

of months.

The

expectations on the part of the US consumers have

Given the importance of these commodities to

reached a point where the durable goods index has

container

reached an all-time low point for February.

measurements are clearly an indication to container

shipping

volumes,

these

recent

carriers to be ready to curb capacity and do so

Figure 10 depicts another commodity grouping of

quite rapidly should consumer demand develop

critical importance to container shipping on the

accordingly.

Transpacific: Clothing and footwear. The index is

certainly not near the low point seen during the

Liner Trade within the Pacific Ocean

Niche-carriers are dominating the services to and from the Pacific
Islands. Some Top-20 carriers are also engaged in the trade
In late December last year, the US Jones Act carrier

Futuna, Vanuatu, Tarawa and Majuro all of which

Matson announced that it had signed a definitive

would be new markets for Matson.

agreement to acquire the New Zealand based

The announcement from Matson inspired us to

carrier Reef Shipping. The deal included four vessels

and

approximately

1,500

pieces

of

investigate which container carriers actually operate

container

and have services to and from the Pacific Islands

equipment.

and how large (or small) the weekly capacity is.

Matson stated that they would continue to provide

It is key to note that our focus has been solely on

service to Reef Shippings historical trade lanes from

liner services i.e. services operating according to a

Auckland, New Zealand and Fiji to the islands

regular schedule.

nations of Nauru, the Solomon Islands, Tahiti,

Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga, Wallis and

The Pacific Islands

13

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

The Pacific Islands consist of more than 20,000

Islands, Wallis and Fortuna, Tokelau, Niue, French

islands in the Pacific Ocean. Traditionally the Pacific

Polynesia and Easter Island.

Islands are grouped in three divisions: Melanesia,

In the following analysis we have decided to focus

Micronesia and Polynesia. The three groupings are

on the following Islands and investigate how they

shown in figure 11.

are served and by whom:

Melanesia includes New Guinea (which is divided

into the sovereign state of Papua New Guinea and

Federal States of Micronesia

the Indonesian provinces of Maluku, Papua and

Fiji

French Polynesia

Guam

Hawaii

Micronesia, is placed north of Melanesia, includes

Marshall Islands,

Marianas, Guam, Wake Islands, Palau, the Marshall

Nauru

Islands, Kiribati, Nauru and the Federated States of

New Caledonia

Micronesia.

Samoa

Solomon Islands

Tonga

Vanuatu

West Papua), New Caledonia, Zenadh Kes, Vanuatu,

Fiji and the Solomon Islands.

Finally, Polynesia consists of New Zealand, the

Hawaiian Islands, Rotuma, the Midway Islands,
Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, the Cook

14

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

Methodology
In order to identify which carriers are operating
liner services to the Pacific Islands, we have firstly
gone through the websites of all 100 of the largest
container carriers in the world, to identify which of
them operate services to the Pacific Islands.
Secondly, we have visited the respective ports or
port authorities websites in the relevant countries
to identify, which carriers vessels are calling the
various ports on the Pacific Islands. By using this

Islands. The average weekly capacity on this service

methodology, we have established a detailed

is 242 TEU. The average vessel size on this service is

overview of which carriers are operating services to

485 TEU.

the various destinations, although some slot-swap

If we turn our attention to one of the largest trades,

arrangements might not have been visible.

which we are covering in this analysis, then we need

When we are calculating the average weekly

to move to Fiji. 15 services are calling Fiji, which are

capacity to the various countries in the region, we

operated by both niche carriers and Top-20 carriers.

have allocated the full capacity of each vessels to

The following Top-20 carriers have services that call

the respective countries, due to the fact that it is

Fiji: Maersk Line, CMA CGM Hapag Lloyd, OOCL,

simple not possible to know, how much capacity

and Hamburg Sd. The remaining niche carriers

each carrier have allocated to the specific ports on

which call Fiji are Swire Shipping, Marfret, Polynesia

their port rotation.

Line, Pacific Direct Line, Neptune Pacific Line, South

Pacific Liner Consortium and Reef Shipping (to be

How are the Pacific Islands served?

taken over by Matson).

The following will outline the exact service patterns

On average, the weekly capacity to Fiji is about

to each of the main nations, including the carriers

serving each of the states. For an overview, figure 12
shows the average weekly capacity offered to each
of the states, and figure 13 shows the average vessel
size used.
The Federated States of Micronesia is only served by
one service. The service is operated by the Japanese
carrier Kyowa and the US carrier Matson. The service
is bi-weekly and calls ports in Korea and Japan
before it calls a number of ports on the Pacific

15

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

9,000 TEU. The services which call Fiji have origins in

5,000 and 4,800 TEU. The remaining carriers

Asia, USA, Australia and New Zealand. Out of the 15

operating in the trade to Hawaii is Hapag Lloyd,

services to Fiji, Pacific Direct Line operates four of

Hamburg Sd, NYK and Mariana Express Line. These

them, while Reef Shipping is operating three. Of the

other services calling Hawaii have origins in

weekly capacity of 9,000 TEU, Pacific Direct Line and

Australia, New Zealand and Asia. The average vessel

Reef Shipping are respectively providing 1,900 and

size in this trade is about 2,150 TEU.

375 TEU. The vessels deployed on the services to Fiji

One of the smallest trades we have mapped out is

have an average vessel size of 1,550 TEU.

the trade to the Marshall Islands, which is placed in

With a capacity of 9,400 TEU per week, the trade to

the eastern part of Micronesia. The Marshall Islands

French Polynesia is the second largest of the trades

is only served by one service, which is the same

we are focusing on in this analysis. French Polynesia

service that calls the state of Micronesia. The service

is served by nine different services. Out of the Top-

is bi-weekly and operated by Kyowa and Matson

20 carriers, Maersk Line, CMA CGM, Hapag Lloyd

and has a capacity of 242 TEU per week.

and Hamburg Sd have services to the Islands. The

Nauru is served by three services and all of them are

country is also served by SE Shipping, Marfret,

operated by niche carriers. The carriers operating

Polynesia Line, South Pacific Liner Consortium and

the three services are Pacific Direct Line, Neptune

Reef Shipping. The average vessel size on the

Pacific Line and Reef Shipping. The vessels calling

services to French Polynesia is 2,150 TEU.

Nauru are some of the smallest in the trade, with an

Guam is one of the many American governed

average size of 525 TEU. The average weekly

Islands in the Pacific. This means that only Jones Act

capacity to Nauru is about 400 TEU.

carriers can transport cargo to the Islands to/from

New Caledonia is the third largest trade we have

the US. Matson is also the only carrier offerong a

mapped out in this analysis on par with Fiji - with

service from the USA to Guam, while Mariana

an average weekly capacity of little more than 9,000

Express Lines has a service from South China and

TEU. Several carriers are engaged in the trade to

Taiwan, and Kyowa and Matson have a joint service

New Caledonia. The vessels calling the port of

from Korea and Japan to Guam. These three services

Noumea have an average vessel size about 1,350

offer a capacity of 4,300 TEU per week. The average

TEU. Four Top-20 carriers are engaged in this trade:

vessel size is nearly 1,700 TEU.

Maersk Line, MSC, CMA CGM and OOCL. The niche-

The largest trade is the trade to Hawaii. As Hawaii is

carriers serving New Caledonia are SE Shipping,

an American state, the Jones Act legislation is also

Marfret, Swire Shipping, Sofrana, Pacific Direct Line

applied to Hawaii like it is the case for Guam. The

and South Pacific Liner Consortium.

average weekly capacity to Hawaii is about 13,500

Even though Samoa only is served by three services

TEU. The trade is dominated by the two American

it has a relatively high average weekly capacity. The

Jones Act carriers, Horizon Lines and Matson. The

capacity is about 2,350 per week. The services

two carriers respectively offer a weekly capacity of

16

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

calling the country have origins in Asia, New

services calling Vanuata have origin in New Zealand,

Zealand and the US. Hamburg Sd is the only Top-

Australia and Asia. The average weekly capacity to

20 carrier engaged in the trade, while three niche

the country is about 1,650 TEU and the average

carriers are operators in the trade: Polynesia Line,

vessel size is 825 TEU

Pacific

Direct

Line

and

South

Pacific

Liner

Outlook for the Pacific Islands

Consortium.

In October 2012 the IMF published their economic

The Solomon Islands is a part of Melanesia and is

outlook for the World economy until 2017. The

served by 10 services. The services offer an average

report also included an outlook for some of the

capacity of 4,700 TEU per week and the average

Pacific Islands countries.

vessel size is nearly 1,100 TEU. The dominating

carriers to Solomon Islands are Swire Shipping,

Fiji and Samoa are expected to see a growth rate in

which offers 1,500 TEU per week and Maersk Line

real GDP of about 2%, while Tonga will experience a

(MCC) offers 1,400 TEU per week. The remaining

growth of about 1.5% per year. The Solomon Islands

carriers in this trade are New Pacific Line, Sofrana,

and Vanuate are expected to have a growth of 4% in

South Pacific Liner Consortium and Carpenters

real GDP in both 2013 and 2017.

Shipping. The Solomon Islands is only served from

In figure 14 we have shown the countries growth in

Asia, Australia and New Zealand.

real GDP in 2012, 2013 and 2017 and compared

Tonga is a part of the Polynesia region. Tonga is

them to the development IMF is expecting for Brazil

only served by the niche carriers Pacific Direct Line

and India.

and Reef Shipping. Both carriers offer a service from

New Zealand. The average weekly capacity is about

Solomon Islands and Vanuatu are expected to show

1,000 TEU and the average vessel size is nearly 750

significant growth rates on par with what has been

TEU.

labeled the emerging economies, and hence

present an opportunity for the carriers engaged in

Finally, we have mapped the services to Vanuata.

these trades. On the contrary Fiji, Samoa and Tonga

Vanuata is also only served by niche carriers Swire

are not expected to exhibit significant growth, and

Shipping, Sofrana, South Pacific Liner Consortium,

hence present less of an opportunity going forward.

Reef Shipping and Carpenters Shipping. All carriers

are operating their service independently. The

17

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

Operational incidents in Africa

348 red and amber alerts seen in the past 4 months, reflecting
significant operational challenges throughout Africa
Following the launch of Portoverview.com, we have

Said Customs office and have blocked access to

kept a close eye on Africa, and it seems theres

SCCT.

never a dull moment.

We will take this opportunity to highlight some of

There are several local African editors who play an

the key status updates which have been posted in

important role in obtaining this information.

Port Overview over the past few weeks.

The

editors not only update port statuses in Port

There was the well-known incident, in the Suez

Overview, as they happen, but can also quickly verify

Canal, where the Emma Maersk suffered technical

the real situation. This is important, as we have

difficulties, shortly after beginning her transit, and

come across situations where incidents are being

had to be towed to the SCCT terminal. Perhaps less

reported by local publications, which are not

necessarily correct.

well-known was the vessel explosion in Tin Can

We have also witnessed a

Island, Nigeria, in early January which left the MRS

down-playing of incidents by local governments in

storage facility wrecked.

certain instances, apparently in an effort to prevent

users of the ports to be concerned.
A prime example of government down-playing
happens to be in one of the biggest trouble spots of
late - Egypt - where riots and protests have wreaked
havoc in and around the Port Said area and the
main Egyptian ports for weeks.

The crux of the

troublesome situation began at the end of January

with enraged football fans, known as the Ultras,
protesting over a court ruling, which was handed
down as a result of clashes one year ago between
the Port Said Ahly football team fans and Masry fans

10 port areas have either seen instances of strikes or

that left 70 people dead.

had threats of strikes in the last 6 weeks.

The escalation of violence has caused more deaths.

The latest protests have caused closure of the Port

18

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

Several ports have had inclement weather problems;

Another major issue due to weather is that the Sena

but South Africa holds the record for the number of

Railroad in Mozambique confirmed it was at a

weather related situations.

standstill on 21 February, due to damage sustained

Recently, Durban and

Cape Town have both been adversely affected by

from bad weather.

continual weather related incidents, the biggest

issue

being

high

winds

which

have

Overall we have seen 124 red incident alerts in the

caused

past 4 months, as well as 224 amber alerts. The main

numerous berthing delays and related problems,

incident categories are shown in figure 16.

such as a temporary stoppage in the acceptance of

Reefer containers. Just in the past four weeks, Cape

For

Town alone has had 23 weather related status

developments we refer to www.portoverview.com

updates.

more

up-to-date

details

on

African

Recently, Ngqura/Coega had also been

affected by high winds.

The art of naming a container vessel

Can you name the most likely operators of vessels named Express, Xin
or Kota? What are most of the top-20 carriers vessels named after?

19

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

Most of us have heard names like CMA CGM Marco

Mostly, the top-20 carriers have two parts to their

Polo and Hanjin Gold, and are able to guess the

vessels names. The one part of the name identifies

likely operators of these container vessels, but do

it as that carriers vessel, for example Evergreen

the carriers always make it this easy to identify their

using Ever as in Ever Lawful. This pre- or post- fix

vessels? And which names do the top-20 carriers

does not necessarily have to be a subpart of the

use to signal that this vessel is a part of their fleet?

carriers own name. As an example, most of

Which cities are most vessels named after, and do

Hamburg Sds vessels are called Cap something,

some carriers have a predisposition to specific items

and most of K Lines vessels are called something

when naming their vessels?

Bridge.

In this weeks SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight we will take

Below we have listed the names the different top-20

a closer look at the names painted on the side of

carriers use to signal that they are the operator of

the container vessels around the globe, in order to

this vessel. Some are clearly more obvious than

see if we can find patterns in the proud names that

other.

adorn the vessels.

Which name signals which carrier?

21

Maersk Line = Maersk

MSC = MSC

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

-

CMA CGM = CMA CGM

while four vessels each bear the

Evergreen = Ever

names

APL = APL

Canada.

COSCO = COSCO

CSCL = CSCL or Xin

Hanjin = Hanjin

Hapag Lloyd = Express

K Line = Bridge

MOL = MOL

NYK = NYK

Hamburg Sd = Cap

OOCL = OOCL

Table 5 shows that the most

ZIM = ZIM

popular

Hyundai = Hyundai

container

vessel

Yang Ming = YM

Singapore,

with

PIL = Kota

bearing

the

UASC = UASC

followed

by

CSAV = CSAV

Hamburg. More surprisingly is

Germany,

Chile

and

Cities are even more popular to

name container vessels after.
Table 5 shows, the 41 most
popular

cities

to

name

container vessels after.

city

to

name

after

is

21

vessels

name,

sharply

Shanghai

and

to find cities that not are on the

Figure 17 shows the percentages of the Worlds

beaten

path

containerized fleet with the 20 above mention

container

vessels,

identifiers.

Copenhagen, Paris, Washington

of

most

such

as

and Jakarta.

In figure 17 it can be seen that the most commonly

used prefix in the global container vessel fleet is

Quite a number of vessels are

MSC,

named after famous historical

accounting

for

6.3%

of

the

Worlds

containerized fleet.

persons. Here should of course

be

Popular places to name a vessel after

mentioned

the

Worlds

largest container ship, CMA

Another popular approach among container vessel

CGM Marco Polo, but also

owners/operators is to name their vessel after cities

other vessels such as CMA CGM

or countries, but what are the most popular places

Magellan, CMA CGM Alexander

to name container vessels after?

Von

Humboldt,

Matisse,

The most popular country to name container vessels

APLs

CMA

CGM

President

Truman, President Jackson and

after is China, with seven ships bearing the country

UASCs Malik Al-Ashtar.

name, sharply followed by Korea, Peru, Japan and

India, all with six vessels. Five are called Colombia,

22

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

The Worlds two largest carriers, MSC and Maersk

vessels adjectives as names, for example Ever

Line, seems to be more fond of more generic names

Leading, Hanjin Harmony and YM Uniformity.

like MSC Teresa, MSC Valeria and Emma Maersk.

Other carriers again are more inclined to give their

Game-change for 13,000+? - update

In last weeks SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight we

main conclusions, but does provide additional

conducted an analysis concerning the possibility of

information

13,000+ TEU vessels being introduced onto the

capabilities in South America, which is the reason for

Asia-South America trade, and whether the South

this update.

American ports have the operational capabilities to

pertaining

to

the

operational

We mentioned last week that the APMT terminal in

handle such large vessels.

Callao is expanding, so it in the future will be able to

Following publication of the analysis, we received

handle 13,000 TEU vessels. DP Worlds terminal in

additional

The

Callao can already handle such large vessels.

additional information does not change any of the

However as this is the only port on the South

information

from

DP

World.

American West Coast that currently has, or in the

near future will have, the ability to handle such
vessels, we do not expect to see them introduced
on the Asia-WCSA trade.

On the South American East Coast we also received

updated information about operational capabilities
of DP Worlds terminals in Buenos Aires and Santos.
Last week we mentioned APMT and Hutchinson as
operators in Buenos Aires, where also DP World
operate. However, DP Worlds terminal in Buenos
Aires cannot now or in the near future, like APMTs
and Hutchinsons terminals, accommodate 13,000+
TEU vessels.
DP Worlds terminal in Santos is currently expanding
similar to the APMT terminal there meaning that
they both in the future will have the ability to

23

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

accommodate 13,000+ TEU vessels. Please see table

We hope this additional information help our

6 for updated operational capabilities in ECSA-ports.

readers to gain a more comprehensive

15 237overview of
the operational capabilities in the South American

Currently there are expansion projects in many of

the

ports,

figures

in

brackets

are

the

ports.

new

operational capabilities when these are finished.

Service Changes
Korean carriers launch new Intra-Asia service

2,600 TEU vessel deployed. Sinokor is engaged in

two services, where the first service is jointly

Heung-A Shipping, STX Pan Ocean and Sinokor

operated with TS Lines. The second service is

Merchant Marine have joined forces to launch a new

cooperated with another Korean carrier KMTC and

service linking Korea with Indonesia. The new

Gold Star Line.

service will commence from March 23.

Additionally, another five services are already

The new weekly service is named Pusan Jakarta

connecting Korea and Indonesia which is operated

Express and will deploy three 1,700 TEU vessels. The

by Maersk Line, MSC, Sinotrans, APL and MCC.

service rotation will be Kwangyang Busan Ulsan

Hong Kong Jakarta Hong Kong Kwangyang.

Currently, the average weekly capacity between

Korea and Indonesia is about 19,100 TEU, when the

Unfortunately, none of the three Korean carriers

three Korean carriers commence their new service in

have yet published the schedule for the new service,

end March the capacity will increase to about 20,800

so it is not possible to conclude whether the new

TEU per week, which is equal to an increase of

service is able to improve the transit time between

roughly 9%.

Korea and Indonesia.

Two of three Korean carriers are already represented
in the trade between Korea and Indonesia. Heung-A
is operating a joint service with Hanjin, which has

24

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis

Rate Changes
Future rate increases

25

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis

26

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis

27

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis

Tradelane
Asia-West Africa (WB)
Europe-WCSA (SB)
Europe-ECSA (SB)
Europe-ECSA (SB)
Europe-East Africa (EB)
India-Asia (EB)
US-South America (SB)
ME-ECSA (WB)

Carrier

Rate increase

Maersk Line
Maersk Line
MSC
Hamburg Sd
HMM
Hapag Lloyd
Hapag Lloyd
Maersk Line

250
150 EUR/TEU
200 EUR/TEU
200 EUR/TEU
200
28
50
150
150

Effective date
March 15, 2013
March 1, 2013
April 15, 2013
April 1, 2013
March 1, 2013
March 1, 2013
April 1, 2013
March 1, 2013

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis creating value from information

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SeaIntel Maritime Analysis

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SeaIntel Maritime Analysis

Copyright and Disclaimer

Editor:
CEO and Partner, Mr. Lars Jensen lars.jensen@seaintel.com

Analysts:
Vice President, Mrs. Vickie L. Perez v.perez@seaintel.com
Shipping Analyst, Mr. Morten Berg Thomsen m.thomsen@seaintel.com
Shipping Analyst, Mr. Kasper Hansen k.hansen@seaintel.com

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis

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