Stat 3704: Stats for Engineering

Applications
Introduction/Chapter 1

Engineering Method
The heart of sound engineering practice is the engineering
method

Example: Strength of Filament

Consider a production process of a new kind

of filament. In the process, we find the
filament always breaks. The problem is well
defined: The filaments strength(S) is
inadequate.
C: the amount of catalyst used
T: the temperature in the production process
P: the pressure in the production process
S = f(C,T,P)
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The proper application of the engineering method

requires
model building
data collection
data analysis
data interpretation.

In essence, the engineering method requires statistics!

Statistics deals with such issues as

variability
correlation
uncertainty
risk in the face of this uncertainty
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Statistical Thinking

Engineers need to learn statistical thinking.

A philosophy of learning and making
decisions based on three fundamental
principles (American Statistical Association):
All work occurs in a system of interconnected
processes
Variation exists in all processes
Understanding and reducing variation are keys
to success.

Models
Old Way: Deterministic
For example, consider Ohm's Law
V = IR
where

V is the voltage
I is the current

R is the resistance

If we know I and R, we claim to know V exactly.

Consider an EE lab with 20 students
All set up circuits
same current
same resistance

All measure the voltage.

Models
How many different voltages do you think will be
observed?
A better approach uses a probabilistic model
V = IR +
where is a random error.
In this case, is best viewed as an experimental error.
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Terminology
Models provide a basis for describing populations.
Population: A population is the set of all possible observations
of interest to the problem at hand.
Sample: the part of the population from which we collect
information.

Population
Sample

Important Concept: Pairing Data

Purpose: to remove unwanted variability.
Example:
Comparing two temperature instruments used to control a chemical
process.
Problem: The true process temperature changes daily,
which is an unwanted source of variability.
Solution:

Use both instruments on the same process

Take measurements at same time.
The two measurements are paired.
The analysis on the differences between the two measurements.

Result: we eliminate the day-to-day

10 temperature variability!

Methods for collecting data

Retrospective studies
Observational studies
Designed experiments

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Retrospective studies

Retrospective studies use previously collected data.

Primary advantage: cost since the data are already
collected

Disadvantages:

1.

may not have the information required

2.

often have problems with missing data

3.

may not be able to document interesting phenomena.

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Observational studies

Observational studies interact with the

process only as much as is required to
obtain relevant data.
Pro: Can provide accurate, complete, and reliable data.
Con: Often provide limited information about specific

relationships among the data (i.e. cannot determine

cause and effect).

Usually we use observational studies to

monitor processes.
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Observational studies

Observational studies usually use a sampling plan to collect their

data.
Some common sampling plans are:

simple random sampling

stratified random sampling

systematic sampling

Of these three, the most common is simple random sampling.

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Sampling plans

Simple Random Sampling (SRS): every possible

sample of n observations from the population has the same

chance of being selected.(each possible way of randomly
collecting n subjects is equally likely)

Example:

In an electrode deposition (ED) process, sets of 40 plates

are placed in a special bath and subjected to an electrical
load for some time. The supervisor randomly picks 5 plates
for a destructive test. To ensure a random sample, the
supervisor uses a program to generate five random integers
from 1 to 40. The plates at these five locations are picked
for the test.

Population? Sample?

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Sampling plans

Stratified Random Sampling: when there are several groups

or strata (grouping them can remove some of the variability) a simple

random sampling is performed on each in order to get at least one
representative from each group. Also useful for comparing strata.

Example:
At a car production plant, there are three shifts every day.
Rather than take a simple random sample of all of the cars
and count the number of defects in each, the inspector can
take a SRS from each shift (stratum). This can also help
the inspector determine if there is a problem with one or
more specific shifts.
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Sampling plans

Systematic Random Sampling: randomly select an item

within the first m items. Thereafter, sample each mth item.

Lends itself well to high-speed part manufacturing.

Example:
A sintering process is used to make nickel anodes. A
company typically sinters 300 plates per shift.
Production is monitored by taking a sample of five
plates every day. The operator uses a random number
table to generate a random number between 1 and 60,
inclusive. She observes this plate and every 60th plate
thereafter.
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Designed experiments

Designed experiments intentionally disturb

the process and then observe the results.

Pro: Can manipulate the experimental factors. If done

right, can postulate cause and effect.

Con: Almost always costs more.

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Experimental terminology

Factor the explanatory variable(s), often with multiple

levels (i.e., if temperature is the factor, levels could be
50 and 75)
Factors are either

continuous (quantitative)
categorical (qualitative)

Examples of Categorical:
Types of fruits, color
Examples of Continuous:
Temperature, weight, pressure
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Experimental terminology

Treatment/Treatment Combination a
specific combination of the levels of each
factor.
Example: 2 factors
Pressure (4atm,5atm,6atm)
o
o
Temperature (50 F, 75 F)

How many treatments?

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Designed experiments

Experimental Unit (EU): The smallest unit to which

we apply a treatment combination.
Experimental error is the variability among the
experimental units.
Observational Unit (OU): The unit upon which we
take the measurement
Observational error is the variability due to the
observational units. Observational error is a part of the
experimental error

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Example

Consider the process for making sewer pipe.

Three pipes are heated to high temperature
in a furnace.
Want to test two different furnace
temperatures: 2000 F and 2500 F

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Within a furnace, we cannot have one pipe at 2000 F and another at 2500 F.
EU: furnace.
OU: pipes within the furnace.
Response: pipe strength
Almost surely there are thermal gradients within the furnace.
However, these gradients should be within a narrow temperature range.
These gradients are part of the observational error.

Basic Principles of Experimental

Design

Replication: a) Application of at least one of the

treatment combinations to more than one experimental
unit; allows us to estimate the experimental error. b)
Replicating OUs minimizes the impact of measurement
errors but it does not provide an estimate of experimental
error.

Randomization: perform specific experimental runs in

random order minimizes systematic bias

Local control of error: reduce random error among eu,

control anything that can affect the response (outside of the
factors themselves). Blocking.
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Blocking:

Blocking: A set of EUs sharing a common characteristic

thought to affect the response, and to which a separate random
assignment is made. By creating the blocks, you are hopefully
removing a source of the variability.
Randomization is different: Blocking changes the
randomization. Instead of randomizing across all units, a
separate randomization is done for each block.
Example: You want to see which of two different teaching
methods produces higher final grades for the intro engineering
class. You are convinced that having prior engineering
experience (job, internship, etc.) will lead to higher scores so
you create a block for those that have experience and a block
for those that do not and then run the experiment.

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