WHY KEVIN PILLAR IS OVERRATED

Kevin Pillar has a reputation for both his strong defense in center field and
his free-swinging style of batting. Because of these reputations it is easy to
recognize how strong fans knowledge really is; casual fans will love him for his
stellar defense and his reasonably good batting average. However, these fans are
simply wrong, and it is these fans which are the cause for his inflated value.
Kevin Pillars biggest problem is his consistently poor approach to hitting.
Pillars at bats are remarkably similar, as it starts with him taking until the pitcher
throws him a strike before he swings as everything. Consider Pillars swing% on
the before he has seen a strike.
Kevin Pillar Swing% vs All Pitchers
Season: 2016-04-03 to 2016-09-07 |
Count: 0 Strikes | Total Pitches: 743 |
View: Catcher
0%
8
7%
15
15 %
26
23 %
13
10 %
10

25 %
12
45 %
38
33 %
43
30 %
40
12 %
17

15 %
13
35 %
52
44 %
73
43 %
70
21 %
33

18 %
11
20 %
40
29 %
58
18 %
71
15 %
34

0%
1
0%
7
5%
19
12 %
17
14 %
22

As you can see, when a pitcher has yet to throw Pillar a strike he is
remarkably on seeing a good pitch before swinging.
This kind of plate discipline is sometimes effective, particularly in the case
of power hitters. In Pillars case however, this discipline has completely disappears
Kevin Pillar Swing% vs All Pitchers
when the count switches to one or two Season:
2016-04-03 to 2016-09-07 | Count: 2
Strikes | Total Pitches: 491 | View: Catcher
strikes.
Kevin Pillar Swing% vs All Pitchers
Season: 2016-04-03 to 2016-09-07 | Count: 1
Strikes | Total Pitches: 579 | View: Catcher
44 %
9
38 %
16
61 %
28
50 %
18
11 %
9

29 %
7
80 %
15
85 %
39
83 %
29
29 %
24

20 %
5
73 %
26
81 %
47
76 %
46
52 %
31

54 %
13
67 %
24
78 %
36
65 %
43
32 %
41

0%
4
29 %
7
25 %
12
37 %
19
13 %
31

20 %
10
75 %
8
64 %
11
44 %
9
14 %
7

50 %
10
85 %
20
85 %
27
96 %
24
56 %
18

70 %
20
96 %
27
97 %
37
97 %
31
73 %
30

92 %
12
85 %
13
94 %
32
72 %
25
47 %
34

25 %
4
25 %
8
56 %
16
57 %
21
38 %
37

The heat maps prove that Pillar completely changes his approach buy going
to swinging at nothing to swinging at everything.
But so what? I mentioned above that he had a reputation for swinging at all
kinds of pitches. Plus, its not as if Pillar is alone in his free swinging ways. There
are other free swingers even in the Jays lineup.
Lets compare Kevin Pillar to Justin Smoak and Melvin Upton Jr. All three
are free swinging players receiving frequent playing time. The difference between
these two and Pillar is their ability to put up big power numbers. Upton Jr. has 19
home runs combined with a .169 ISO. Smoak has contributed with 14 home runs
and a .182 ISO. But Pillar? He has a lowly 7 home runs and .119 ISO despite
receiving far more plate appearances.
Pillars lack of plate discipline and power is reflected in his WRC+ which
sits at a lowly 80.
But still. Its not his offence which is his calling card, but rather his defense,
which is among the elites of MLB.
And this is true, but MLB teams tend to as well as stats such as WAR tend to
over value defensive ability. Pillars 2.93 WAR is enough to put him ahead of stud
hitters like Xander Bogaerts, Salvador Perez, and Joey Votto. If I was to ask you
which of those players is the least valuable, the answer is clearly Pillar. This is
justifiable proof that teams, fans, and stats overvalue the contributions which Pillar
makes on the defensive ability. This is not to reflect poorly on his defensive ability,
I just believe that defense as a whole and particularly center field defense is
overvalued across baseball.
Kevin Pillar will remain a vital part of this current Blue Jays team. As the
starting center fielder he will continue to contribute regardless of the outcome of
the Jays in terms of the standings. However, it is important not to get carried away
when discussing Pillars contribution to the team. He is after all, OVERRATRED.