The spectre of gloom & the truth buried withinby Arijit Chaudhuri

Introduction:
Global warming is one of the most intensely discussed subjects today in our society. From the
conference rooms of environmental scientists the debate has rolled on to the lecture rooms of our
universities, much hyped by the media, avidly discussed by the common man & also used as a
leveraging tool by politicians.
The warming that is being so widely talked about is still not quite apparent except in certain
places of the globe. However, whatever is happening is being largely ascribed to the greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions due to human activities, especially CO2. Before the guilt complex of the
thought that our car emissions are significantly warming the atmosphere engulfs our minds, we
need to know what those gases really are, whether man is the only contributor to the GHG
emissions or natural processes like volcanoes are joining hands in their generation. We also need
to quantify the percentage of total GHG emissions that are being contributed by the mankind to
the earths atmosphere our atmosphere.
In such a scenario, it is pertinent to go back to history, i.e. our geological past, and ascertain
whether the warming and cooling of the earths climate took place earlier too. The age of earth is
4.6 billion years whereas mankind appeared only 2 million years ago. If we assume the earths
age to be equivalent to a day (24 hours, 86400 seconds), Adam appeared only about 40 seconds
ago. As the warming and cooling of the earths atmosphere has happened umpteen number of
times before the onset of human civilisation and subsequent fossil fuel consumptions, we need to
accept that there are other reasons for the alternating cycles. Geological records are replete with
evidence of numerous episodes of warming and cooling. There are large fluctuations called
Milankovitch cycles that occur every 100,000 years and as in all natural processes there are short
perturbations. It is all a question of scale. Living in the present, we may mistake the small
variations for a fundamental change in the atmosphere! Besides, the earth has its own
mechanisms to cool down which like antibodies responding to antigens, get triggered with the
gradual progress of warming.
For many, it would be a surprising truth to learn that we are living in an Ice Age. In a smaller
scale, many scientists believe that we are just recovering from the cold spell of the Little Ice Age
that spanned from circa 1300 A.D. to 1850 A.D which followed a period called Medieval Warm
period when there were human settlements in Greenland. We survived these fluctuations through
adaptation. There are remains of ancient cities in present day deserts and even under the sea
which prove that the earth is in a dynamically evolving state. BBC has publicized that the earths
atmosphere has remained relatively stable for about 8000 years when civilisation has flourished.
This time span is merely a fleeting moment for the Earth time cycle, but a very long time for the
mankind to develop a mistaken belief in perpetual stability.
Greenhouse gases and their effect:
The Greenhouse effect is well known to everyone, especially those who have had the experience
of parking their cars in sun. The cars inside gets much warmer than what it is outside as the
excess heat gets entrapped within. In cold areas, glass houses that trap heat are made to nurture
saplings. Such phenomenon occurs because the sunrays penetrate glass and heats up the
interiors of a car or glass house, but the infrared radiations that help the heated objects to cool
down cant penetrate glass resulting in heat retention. The Earths atmosphere similarly works like
a glass shield around the Earth. The greenhouse gases bolster this property further resulting in
rising temperatures. However, it would also be true that if all the green house gases were to be
filtered out from the atmosphere, the earth would get cooler by 20 to 30C rendering huge tracts
of land uninhabitable for the humans and many plants and animals species extinct!

Water vapour constitutes 90-95% of the total green house gas accumulations; CO2 is about
3.6%, the rest is methane, CFC and other gases. A study conducted by the University of
Michigan shows that of the 3.6% CO2 in the atmosphere, a miniscule 0.117% is generated by the
humans .Humans have almost no control over the generation of water vapour and large volumes
of CO2 coming out of the volcanoes surrounding the Pacific (Pacific ring of fire) and the
submarine volcanoes of mid oceanic rift-ridge system .It is observed that the overwhelming role
of water vapour as the principal green house gas is not properly factored in the IPCC climate
models The only greenhouse gas on which we have significant control is CFC
(chlorofluorocarbon). We are already taking steps to control CFC emission by developing gadgets
e.g. refrigerators, air-conditioners that are CFC free. A comprehensive look at the origin of total
greenhouse gas in earths atmosphere clearly brings out the insignificance of human contribution
to that effect. The greenhouse gases are not as devilish as they are made out to be. Its for them
we enjoy the cozy warmth in the air we live in. We all know the CO2 is plant feed. It has been
proven that rising CO2 in the atmosphere would lead to luxuriant growth of plants especially,
marine phytoplankton. These plants would eventually die and rot, releasing a compound called
dimethyl sulphide (DMS). DMS released into the atmosphere forms the nuclei around which
clouds grow (cloud condensation nuclei). Clouds would deflect sunlight resulting in cooling down
the earth. It doesnt, however, imply that we neednt do anything to bring down the level of
anthropogenic GHG emissions. Primarily because those gases are pollute the air we breathe,
especially, in our cities and industrial areas. It always pays to develop fuel efficient gadgets.
Ultimately they save money. Believing that such measures would control the atmospheric
temperature would do little beyond satisfying mans ego.
Warming and cooling in the recent past:

(From Gerhard, 2004)

First clear indications of life in earth are recorded from the rocks of about 600 million years age
old. Even before the appearance of life and many times after it the episodic changes from warm
to cool atmosphere has been chronicled in the rocks During one such warm period (Cretaceous)
the sea invaded deep inside the landmass (Trichinopoly marine deposits). Who would believe
that about 280 million years ago glaciers covered Orissa (Talchir boulder beds). Glacial
movements polish the underlying rocks. They can carry huge boulders over long distances which

is not possible even for mighty water flows. The glacial deposits along their course and at the
point they melt are distinctive (moraines). We see such boulders scattered around Europe and
North America. Geological records reveal that about 18000 year ago, the Swiss capital of Geneva
was under very deep layers of ice. The vineyards in North Britain and the Viking settlements in
Greenland got destroyed during a cold spell called Little Ice Age that lasted from 1250 to about
1850 A.D. In Paleogene period (65-23 Million years) warmth loving beetles lived in Antarctica. n.
Currently, the average CO2 content in the atmosphere is about 350ppm. In Eocene period, (55
million years ago) the temperature was much higher and the CO2 at about 1000 ppm. There were
no humans to fiddle with the atmosphere at that time. All these tell us that global warming and
cooling is not a great novelty and there are reasons completely independent of human activities
that have caused such fluctuations in the atmosphere.
The climate drivers
It is not the GHGs which are the real controllers of earths temperature. Depending on their scale
of influence, the climate drivers can be classified from the first to fourth order.
A.First Order Controller- The Big Daddy: Solar luminescence in combination with state of the
atmosphere can vary the temperature from 25-30C over a period of 10 million years or more.
B.Second order Controller- The Great Uncles: Distribution of ocean and the landmasses (Plate
Tectonics). Warm ocean currents from the equator carry heat to the cold polar regions (oceanic
conveyor belt). In case the drifting continents obstruct the flow of currents around the equator, Ice
Age would be imminent. Such phenomenon can vary temperature from 15-20C over a period of
1-10 million years. C.Third Order Controllers-The Juniors: Sun and sea again. Solar insolation
variability and large scale ocean current fluctuations may result in 5-10C variation over 100100000 years. Fourth Order Controllers-The Tiny-Tots: Small scale ocean oscillations in East
Pacific (La Nina/ El Nino), volcanic activity/ meteorites, solar storms and flares, small orbital
changes may have their effect up to 30C at a regional scale with a spread of about a hundred
years .One can see that most of these climate drivers, especially the pair of biggies, i.e., the Sun
and Ocean currents are not amenable to human control.
CO2 rising or falling.
D.H.Rothman in 2002, worked out the airs CO2 content based on considerations related to the
chemical weathering of rocks, volcanic and metamorphic degassing, and the burial of organic
carbon, along with considerations related to the isotopic content of organic carbon and strontium
in marine sedimentary rocks, the author derived a 500-million-year history of the air's CO2
content. He observed that over the bulk of the record, earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration
fluctuates between values that are two to four times greater than that of today. For the last 175
million years, however, there has been a rather steady long-term decline in the air's CO2 content.
We find an echo of Rothmans observation in BBCs geological series The Earth story and also
in the work of Bemer (2001). Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Founding Director of the International Arctic
Research Center of the University of Alaska, is one among the many who believe that the
warming as noticed is due to natural causes than CO2. Dr. Akasofu found that if the measured
CO2 levels are fed into the climate models used by the IPCC, the temperatures turn out to be
different from observed ones implying thereby the existence of natural causes. As we
superimpose the Bemer CO2 curve on the global temperature curve by Scotese (2002), the lack
of correlation between CO2 and Temperature stares back at the beholder.
Are we approaching another ice age
In a paper drawn at an international symposium convened by the Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory in October 1999, Lamont-Doherty paleoclimatologist George Kukla argued that
instead of a hothouse we are fast approaching another ice age. The Serbian scientist Milankovich
propounded that the cool and warm periods correspond to earths orbital variations. He calculated
a periodicity of 100,000 years. Kukla says that 100,000 year long ice ages are separated by warm
interglacials as we are in now. The current interglacial is half over, and the earth is approaching
its orbital position 116000 years ago when the last interglacial was over.
Kukla contends that the average earth temperature is lopsided towards the condition near the
equator as tropical and sub tropical areas represent about 50% of the earths surface whereas

the polar areas account for only 14%. He says that the critical issue for ice cap build up is not the
mean temperature but, the temperature difference between the equator and the poles. If the
difference is higher the accelerated evaporation at the equator would translate into growth of ice
cap at the poles. While accepting that the annual mean temperature on Earth is now rising in
tandem with the concern for restricting anthropogenic GHG emissions, Kukla observed that polar
mean temperatures remained steady and ice fields in the upper elevations of Greenland were
actually expanding.
Parting Thoughts:
To summarize -the clamour over global warming appears uncalled for! The IPCC states that CO2
is the culprit but ice core records show that CO2 has risen after the temperature rose. It appears
to be a consequence of rising temperatures rather than its cause.
There has been spread of excessive fear that hurricanes and wind speed has risen with global
temperature. But, even the figures produced by IPCC do not reflect clear trends. The main
limitation of IPCC reports is that they cover a very short period of about 200 years. Such short
treatments magnify the minor blips to frightening proportions.
The convenient truth for India and many other developing countries is that their per capita carbon
emission is much less than the global average whereas the efficiency, i.e., GDP growth per unit
of fossil fuel use is much higher than the average. Talking about the pressure on reduction of
carbon emissions, a Chinese delegate clearly preferred the developed nations to do so. Theirs
are luxury emissions, ours are survival emissions, he commented.
Notwithstanding the larger than life ego the humans carry, they are a minor constituent of the
natural system. Its important to accept that one component of a particular system cannot
comprehend the system as a whole, let alone control it. The causes of warming and cooling of the
atmosphere are too diverse and large for the humans to control. It would be definitely better to
adapt to the changing climates rather than trying to discipline nature at a huge cost. After bringing
down the GHG emissions by a fraction through years of painstaking efforts and at formidable cost
we may find an eruption in the Krakatoa volcano pumping tons of CO2 back into the atmosphere.
There is silver lining in every cloud. If the earth warms up, Siberia, Iceland, Antarctica, Greenland
and the higher reaches of the mountains would become habitable, cultivable. The scope of
mineral and hydrocarbon exploration in these areas would expand beyond comparison. For the
mountaineers, the mountains would continue to exist. In fact, the Himalayas and the Alps are still
growing. Mountain buildup leads to weathering of rocks which, in its turn, absorbs CO2. In fact
the fall of CO2 in the atmosphere since Eocene has been largely contributed by the process of
mountain building in the corresponding period. It would be worrisome for the future of the rivers
fed by the glaciers, but the rainfall is bound to increase with increased evaporation due to warm
climate. Rather than trying to discipline the sun and the sea, mundane means of water storage
like rainwater harvesting would help us survive.
As stated earlier, India and the developing countries are producing much less GHGs per capita
compared to the developed nations. The trio of India, China and Brazil are much better in terms
of productive use of the fossil fuels, too. Therefore, for the present it would be sensible to go back
to our old task of funding projects on health, food education and shelter.
References:
1. Gerhard Lee C et al Eds., 2001: Geological Perspective of Global Climate ChangeAAPG Studies in Geology#47
2. Ramanathan,V. Collins, W. 1991: Thermodynamic Regulation of Ocean Warming by
Cirrus Clouds Deduced from the Observations of the 1987 El Nino; Nature351; 27-32
3. Rothman, D.H. 2002. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for the last 500 million years:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 99: 4167-4171
4. `The Earth Story, 1998: BBC DVD Series -The Big Freeze
5. AAPG Bulletins, CO2 Science and many other documents on the web
6. Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
7. Earth Institute News, 25.02.2000: The Earth Institute, Columbia University,USA
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(The author is Deputy General Manager -Geology at the ONGC, Chennai)