Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Sales
143
130
156
117
91
182
130
78
195
156
169
91
182
143
MA (2)
136.5
143
136.5
104
136.5
156
104
136.5
175.5
162.5
130
136.5
MA (4)
136.5
123.5
136.5
130
120.25
146.25
139.75
149.5
152.75
149.5
Day
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Sales
143
130
156
117
91
182
130
78
195
156
169
91
182
143
ES(0.1)
ES(0.9)
143
143
141.7
131.3
143.13
153.53
140.517
120.653
135.5653
93.9653
140.20877 173.19653
139.18789 134.31965
133.0691 83.631965
139.26219 183.8632
140.93597 158.78632
143.74238 167.97863
138.46814 98.697863
142.82133 173.66979
250
200
150
100
50
10
12
14
16
Period
Month
# of Patrons
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
133
183
285
640
1876
2550
2150
2660
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Level
-595
-126
284
646
1002
1484
2001
2389
2792
Intercept
X Variable
1
6
7
SS
7524750.14880952
1016287.72619048
8541037.875
MS
7524750.14880952
169381.287698413
Coefficients
-595.1071428571
423.2738095238
Standard Error
320.6846409789
63.5050218671
t Stat
-1.8557394612
6.6652021695
Trend
423
428
426
420
413
420
430
426
423
Forecast
-172
302
710
1066
1415
1905
2431
2815
3215
3638
0
0
0.15
0.1
Alpha
Beta
Cha
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
4518
500
0
F
44.4249199605
P-value
0.1128884833
0.0005517839
Significance F
0.0005517839
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-1379.7941913485 189.5799 -1379.794 189.5799
267.8826189099 578.665 267.8826 578.665
Chart Title
per 95.0%
Month
# of Patrons
Level
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
133
183
285
640
1876
2550
2150
2660
640.0
1235.8
1888.5
2146.6
2505.5
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9386219762
R Square
0.8810112142
Adjusted R Square
0.8611797499
Standard Error
411.5595797675
Observations
8
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
1
2
3
7
8
1
6
7
SS
7524750.14880952
1016287.72619048
8541037.875
Coefficients
-595.1071428571
423.2738095238
Standard Error
320.6846409789
63.5050218671
Trend
Forecast
0
0
169.0
211.7
255.8
256.0
266.3
0.0
809.0
1447.5
2144.3
2402.6
2771.8
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
MS
7524750.14880952
169381.287698413
t Stat
-1.8557394612
6.6652021695
F
Significance F
44.4249199605 0.000552
P-value
Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
0.1128884833 -1379.794 189.5799 -1379.794 189.5799
0.0005517839 267.8826 578.665 267.8826 578.665
sart
4.
alpha
0.4
beta
0.1
Chart Title
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
per 95,0%
Season
Tues
Wed
Thurs
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Week 1
67
75
82
98
90
36
55
Week 2
60
73
85
99
86
40
52
Week 3
64
76
87
96
88
44
50
Deseasonalized Data
Season
Tues
Wed
Thurs
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Week 1
75
72
69
72
73
64
75
Week 2
67
70
72
73
70
72
71
Week 3
72
73
74
70
72
79
68
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Original
67
75
82
98
90
36
55
60
73
85
99
86
40
52
64
76
87
96
Deseasonalized
75.32
72
69
72
73
64
75
67
70
72
73
70
72
71
72
73
74
70
ES(0,1) (F_t-1,t)
75.32
75.0
74.4
74.2
74.1
73.1
73.3
72.7
72.4
72.4
72.4
72.2
72.1
72.0
72.0
72.1
72.2
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
88
44
50
72
79
68
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72.0
7.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
Season Average
63.67
74.67
84.67
97.67
88.00
40.00
52.33
71.57
SA Index
0.89
1.04
1.18
1.36
1.23
0.56
0.73
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Final Forecast
D
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
12.4
14.5
16.5
19.0
17.1
7.8
10.2
Original
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Original
Deseasonalized
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Year
Quarter
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
Period
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Demand D_t
8000
13000
23000
34000
10000
18000
23000
38000
12000
13000
32000
41000
S_t
1.164557
1.648485
0.470588
0.827586
1.022222
1.717514
0.530387
0.53886
1.023765
1.713578
0.529264
0.539878
1.049868
1.703593
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9580652366
R Square
0.9178889975
Adjusted R Sq 0.9042038305
Standard Error414.5033124497
Observations
8
De-seasonalized
18,963
19,487
19,750
20,625
21,250
21,750
22,500
22,125
22,625
24,125
31,257
23,927
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
SS
MS
F
1 11523810 11523809.524 67.07182
6 1030878 171812.99603
7 12554688
Significance F
0.0001786086
L_t
18,439
18,963
19,487
19,984
20,515
21,058
21,600
22,165
22,644
23,114
23,678
24,907
25,407
T_t
L_t-1+T_t-1Final
524
524
18,963
524
19,487
519
20,010
521
20,503
525
21,036
529
21,583
536
22,128
525
22,702
514
23,168
524
23,628
665
24,201
632
25,572
13781.4515
26,039
14398.9566 26670.74
28664.1125 27302.59
47588.9437 27934.45
pdate S_t in
e periods using
S equation (3)
de page 76
Forecst
13781.5
14399.0
28664.1
47588.9
p
alpha
beta
gamma
4
0.1
0.2
0.1
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
t and T_t
when
demand
e equation
orecast
13-16
d T_12
Chart Title
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
10
12
14
Manager Plant 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ft
Dt
92
87
95
90
88
93
88
88
97
83
91
93
Manager Plant 1
e_t_1
4
-1
-2
7
-3
0
Manager Plant 2
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ft
Dt
96
89
92
93
90
85
91
89
90
90
86
89
MAPE_1
MFE_1
MAD_1
0.0454545455
4
0.0113636364
1
0.0206185567
2
0.0843373494
7
0.032967033
3
0
0
3.25% 0.833333 2.83333333
Manager Plant 2
e_t_2
5
0
2
3
4
-4
MAPE_2
MFE_2
0.0549450549
0
0.0222222222
0.0333333333
0.0465116279
0.0449438202
3.37% 1.666667
MAD_2
5
0
2
3
4
4
3
The forecast froom manager 1 is more accurate (with MAPE 3.25% v.s. 3.37%) and less biased (with T
TS_1
0.29
TS_1
0.56
alpha
beta
0.1
0.05
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.928261
R Square 0.861669
Adjusted R 0.850141
Standard Er37.43362
Observatio
14
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
SS
MS
F
Significance F
1
104743
104743 74.74832 1.68E-006
12 16815.31 1401.276
13 121558.4
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept
109.286 21.13198 5.17158 0.000233 63.24309 155.3283
Day
21.4571 2.481825 8.645711 1.68E-006 16.04971 26.86458
21.065
21.065
Sales
450
400
350
300
Sales
250
200
150
100
50
0
1
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
63.24309 155.3283
16.04971 26.86458
10
11
12
13
14
Sales
14