ISSUE 2 | july 2015

PROVINCIAL

economic growth

QUARTERLY DATA SERIES

introduction
The Quarterly Review of Gross Domestic
Product is a statistical release compiled
by the Eastern Cape Socio Economic
Consultative Council (ECSECC). The
publication aims to provide analysis of
economic growth trends and drivers in
the Eastern Cape and provide advice to
various stakeholders and policy makers.
Data is drawn from Statistics South Africa
(Stats SA) and Quantec Research. The first
quarter 2015 (1Q2015) release focuses on
the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
for the Eastern Cape (EC) and compares
it to other provinces and the country. The
review also provides analysis of sector
contribution to GDP. ECSECC also issues
a quarterly data release on labour and a
monthly release on inflation. These can be
found on our website www.ecsecc.org.

KEY GDP FINDINGS FOR 1stQUARTER 2015

Figure 1: QoQ GDP growth for South Africa and the Eastern Cape at constant 2010 prices, 1Q2010-1Q2015
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
1Q2010

2Q2010

3Q2010

4Q2010

1Q2011

2Q2011

3Q2011

4Q2011

1Q2012

2Q2012

3Q2012

4Q2012

1Q2013

2Q2013

3Q2013

4Q2013

1Q2014

2Q2014

3Q2014

4Q2014

2.4

4.7

2.5

3.6

5.3

2.6

2.6

3.1

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.6

-1.2

3.3

-0.3

3.6

0.5

0.5

1.6

2.7

0.4

4.8

2.5

4.6

4.5

3.7

2.1

1.1

3.1

1.7

3.7

1.2

1.8

1.4

3.7

1.2

5.1

-1.6

0.5

2.1

4.1

1.3

SA

EC

1Q2015

Source: Quantec Research Estimates, 2015

QUARTERLY DATA SERIES

PROVINCIAL economic growth

page 2

KEY GDP FINDINGS FOR 1stQUARTER 2015 contd.

what is the
current
GDP growth
rate in the

r
te

0.4%
ter on qua
ua

The main contributors to an increase of 0.4% QoQ in

economic activity of the Eastern Cape were the finance
sector (0.60 of a percentage point based on positive growth
of 3.0%), trade sector (0.14 of a percentage point based on
positive growth of 0.7%) and the transport sector (0.07 of a
percentage point based on positive growth of 0.8%).

1st q
u

ter 2015 Q
ar

The South African economys GDP growth was greater

than the Eastern Cape GDP growth in 1Q2015. The
Eastern Capes GDP increased by an annualised growth
rate of 0.4% QoQ, compared to an increase of 2.7% QoQ
in the preceding quarter.

1.3%

r
te

south
africa?

1st q
u

ter on qua
ua

what is the
current GDP
growth rate in

ter 2015 Q
ar

South Africas seasonally adjusted real GDP at market

prices increased by an annualised rate of 1.3% Quarter
on Quarter (QoQ) in 1Q2015 compared with an increase
of 4.1% per cent during 4Q2014. The first quarter increase
was below market expectations due to a slump in
agriculture and manufacturing.

eastern
cape?
which are the main contributors to the

increase in economic activity

Negative contributions were recorded by the

government sector (-0.19 of a percentage point),
agriculture sector (-0.29 of a percentage point), and the
manufacturing sector (-0.33 of a percentage point).

3.0%

However, year on year (YoY) GDP growth for the Eastern

Cape remained the same as the previous quarter at 1.3%
YoY in 1Q2015.

Finance

0.7%
trade

0.8%
transport

REGIONAL COMPARISONS
Figure 2: Comparative regional growth rates for 4Q2014-1Q2015

All provinces in South Africa experienced

positive growth in 1Q2015, however the
growth rates were lower than the previous
quarter.

7.0

5.0

Provincial economies that experienced

positive growth above the national average of
1.3% were North West (3.3%), Limpopo (2.5%),
Northern Cape (2.3%), Gauteng (1.6%) and
Free State (4.2%).

3.0

1.0

North West

Limpopo

Northern
Cape

Gauteng

Mpumalanga

Free State

Western
Cape

Eastern Cape

KwaZuluNatal

South Africa

-1.0

Provincial economies that experienced

positive growth below the national average of
1.3% were, Western Cape (0.7%), Eastern Cape
(0.4%) and KwaZulu-Natal (0.2%).

6.2

5.1

5.8

4.0

5.2

4.3

3.6

2.7

3.8

4.1

3.3

2.5

2.3

1.6

1.6

1.4

0.7

0.4

0.2

1.3

4Q2014

1Q2015

Source: Quantec Research Estimates, 2015

The Eastern Cape recorded the second lowest

GDP growth for the first quarter of 2015 when
compared to other provinces.

PROVINCIAL economic growth

QUARTERLY DATA SERIES

EASTERN CAPE

page 3

SECTORAL GDP GROWTH DRIVERS

Table 1: Eastern Capes sector growth and contribution to GDP for 4Q2014 to 1Q2015
EASTERN CAPE

4Q2014
R million

Agriculture
Mining
PRIMARY SECTOR
Manufacturing
Electricity
Construction
SECONDARY SECTOR
Trade
Transport
Finance
Community services
Government
TERTIARY SECTOR

Share %

3 778
660
4 438
29 226
2 538
8 168
39 932
40 748
17 949
41 868
15 660
48 126
164 351

1Q2015
R million

1.8
0.3
2.1
14.0
1.2
3.9
19.1
19.5
8.6
20.1
7.5
23.1
78.7

Share %

4Q2014
QoQ

1Q2015
QoQ

1.7
0.3
2.1
13.9
1.2
3.9
19.1
19.6
8.6
20.2
7.5
23.0
78.9

7.5
10.2
7.7
9.5
0.3
3.6
7.5
-0.8
2.5
2.7
0.8
1.0
1.1

-16.0
3.4
-13.7
-2.4
0.7
0.9
-1.5
0.7
0.8
3.0
0.9
-0.8
0.9

3 617
665
4 282
29 053
2 542
8 186
39 781
40 821
17 986
42 176
15 694
48 026
164 704

Source: Quantec Research Estimates, 2015

In 1Q2015 GDP growth QoQ was driven by the tertiary

sector only, whereas the secondary sector and primary
sector experienced a negative growth in the same quarter.

Community
services

7.5%

23.0%

20.2

1.7%

to t h e e c

8.6%

1st q
u

ter 2015
ar

Transport

co

sector

Agriculture

ntributi

on

The real value added by the primary sector contracted

at an annualised rate 13.7% in the 1Q2015, following an
increase of 7.7% in the preceding quarter.

omy

The negative growth performance in this sector has

been attributed to the agriculture sector that experienced
negative growth. A pronounced annualised increase
of 7.7% QoQ in the real value added by the agriculture
sector in 4Q2014 was followed by a contraction of 16.0%
QoQ in 1Q2015. Growth in the real output of the mining
sector decelerated from an annualised rate of 10.2% QoQ
in 4Q2014 to 3.4% QoQ in 1Q2015.

government

Finance

Mining

0.3%

trade

19.6%
Manufacturing

The secondary sector had a negative growth at an

annualised rate of 1.5% QoQ in 1Q2015, from an increase
of 7.5% QoQ in the preceding quarter.

3.9%

13.9%

Electricity

1.2%

1st q
u

QoQ

ter 2015
ar

Economic
growth
per sector

Construction

Manufacturing

-2.4

Agriculture

-16%

government

-0.8%

Electricity

trade

Finance

0.7

0.7

Mining

Construction Transport

3.4%

0.9%

3.0%

0.8%

Community
services

0.9%

QUARTERLY DATA SERIES

EASTERN CAPE

PROVINCIAL economic growth

page 4

SECTORAL GDP GROWTH DRIVERS contd.

Figure 3: Eastern Cape sector contribution to GDP for 1Q2015

The real value added by the electricity and construction

sectors increased in 1Q2015, recording positive growth
of 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Real value added by the
manufacturing sector declined to 2.4% QoQ, from an
increase of 9.5% QoQ in the preceding quarter.

25.0

20.0

15.0

The tertiary sector grew at an annualised rate of 0.9%

QoQ, down from an increase of 1.1% QoQ in the
preceding quarter.

10.0

The positive growth in the tertiary sector emanated

from an increase in growth in the finance sector (3.0%),
compared to 2.7% in the previous quarter. Subsequent to
positive growth in all the quarters in 2014, QoQ growth in
the real value added by government sector experienced
negative growth at an annualised rate of 0.8% in the
1Q2015, adding 0.19 of a percentage point decline in
growth experienced in this period.

Trade

Manufacturing

Transport

Community
services

Construction

Agriculture

Electricity

Mining

Finance

The real value added by the trade, transport and

community services sectors increased in the 1Q2015,
although growth of these sectors was slow.

Government

5.0

23.0

20.2

19.6

13.9

8.6

7.5

3.9

1.7

1.2

0.3

1Q2015

Source: Quantec Research Estimates, 2015

The main contributing sectors towards GDP in the Eastern

Cape economy in 1Q2015 were the government sector
(23.0%), followed by the finance sector (20.2%), trade
sector (19.6%) and manufacturing sector (13.9%).

Figure 4: GDP growth at constant 2010 prices for 4Q2014 to 1Q2015

15.0

Out of 10 sectors, the sector that grew the

most in 1Q2015 was mining, with a growth of
3.47% QoQ, followed by finance with growth
of 3.0%. Although mining had the largest
growth when compared to other sectors, it
only contributes 0.3% to the Eastern Cape
economy.

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0

-10.0

Construction

Transport

Trade

Electricity

Government

Manufacturing

Agriculture

3.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.7

-0.8

-2.4

-16.0

2.7

0.8

3.6

2.5

-0.8

0.3

1.0

9.5

7.5

1Q2015

Finance

3.4
10.2

Mining

-20.0

Community
services

-15.0

4Q2014

The sectors that experienced negative

growth in the Eastern Cape were agriculture
(-16.0%), manufacturing (-2.4%) and
government (-0.8%).

Source: Quantec Research Estimates, 2015

Quarterly DATA SE RIES

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+27 (0)43 701 3400
+27 (0)43 701 3415

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www.ecsecc.org

economic growth
ISBN: 978-1-77593-036-5