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Second example,
90
PCV7
PCV13
80
70
60
50
40
>65 yrs
30
20
<5 yrs
10
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Source:
www.cdc.gov/abcs
Baseline,
pre
PCV13
introducFon:
1
July
2004
31
March
2010
EvaluaFon
period:
1
July
2010
30
June
2012
IPD
Modelling
Invasive
Pneumoccal
Disease
(IPD)
is
a
seasonal
disease
with
peaks
in
winter
and
nadirs
in
summer
Strains
of
pneumococcal
bacteria
not
included
in
the
PCV7
vaccine
have
become
more
common
Time-series
models
should
be
cyclical/
seasonal
in
structure
and
contain
a
longitudinal
component
45
40
PCV13
35
>65 yrs
30
25
20
<5 yrs
15
10
5
0
Year
Source:
AcFve
Bacterial
Core
surveillance,
based
on
direct
standardized
11
PCV13
18
16
14
12
10
>65 yrs
8
6
4
<5 yrs
2
0
7/04-6/05
7/05-6/06
7/06-6/07
7/07-6/08
7/08-6/09
7/09-6/10
7/10-6/11
7/11-6/12
Year
Source:
AcFve
Bacterial
Core
surveillance,
based
on
direct
standardized
12
July
2011
-June
2012
Cases
Incidence*
Percent
Decrease
Cases
Incidence*
Percent
Decrease
13
Controlling
by
OLS
Xt
~
N(2.3,1.1)
Xc
~
N(1.3,0.7)
Y(1)
=
exp(X
1.5)
+
2
Y(0)
=
exp(X
1.5)
+
2
E(E(Y(1)|X)
-
E(Y(0)|X))
=
E(E(ex-1.5+2|X)-E(ex-1.5+2|X))
=
0
(0.3)
Note:
Similar
to
Cochran
and
Rubin,
1973
B \ 2
0.5
0.25
0.004
0.88
0.23
0.5
0.014
0.73
0.42
0.091
0.42
0.36
Xt
~
N(,2)
Xc
~
N(0,1)
(0.06)
B \ 2
0.5
0.25
0.81
0.81
0.47
0.5
0.84
0.68
0.40
0.75
0.49
0.36
Xt
~
N(,2)
Xc
~
N(0,1)
Sub-classica/on
Xt
~
N(2.3,1.1)
Xc
~
N(1.3,0.7)
Y(1)
=
exp(X
1.5)
+
2
Y(0)
=
exp(X
1.5)
+
2
E(E(Y(1)|X)
-
E(Y(0)|X))
=
E(E(ex-1.5+2|X)-E(ex-1.5+2|X))
=
0
Subclass
Dierence
SD
0.02
0.03
Total
0.24
5.33
1.12
0.13
0.96
0.2
Subclass
Total
Dierence
0.004
0.002
-0.003
-0.02
-1.9
-0.38
SD
0.005
0.0012
0.002
0.01
1.5
0.31
Performance
of
Sub-classica/on
with
Regression
Adjustment
Coverage
Rate
for
95%
Interval
B \ 2
0.5
0.25
0.62
0.92
0.85
0.5
0.49
0.90
0.91
0.42
0.69
0.91
Xt
~
N(,2)
Xc
~
N(0,1)
Conclusions
To
obtain
a
valid
esFmate
of
the
treatment
eect
there
must
be
balance
on
the
covariates.
When
there
is
not
enough
overlap
between
the
distribuFon
of
the
covariates
in
treatment
and
control
populaFons
none
of
the
methods
will
work.
Using
MITSS
is
the
only
generally
valid
method
with
a
coverage
interval
that
is
not
excessively
large.
MITSS
also
allow
to
dene
and
esFmate
any
funcFon
of
interest
as
treatment
eect.
MITSS
allows
to
obtain
nite
sample
esFmate.
The
results
are
true
for
conFnuous
as
well
as
binary
outcome