Shipbuilding Industry Planning Service (SHIPS)

MSIs Shipbuilding Industry Planning Service (SHIPS) consists of two distinct yet complementary products:
(1) The SHIPS Forecasting Model is a fully interactive menu-driven Excel-based modelling system, providing easy access to historic and forecasted data for
almost 1,000 key shipbuilding market annual timeseries. It is a powerful analysis and simulation tool that enables the use of alternative assumptions to test
market sensitivities and primary risks by modifying a wide range of macroeconomic, supply and shipyard cost variables.
(2) The SHIPS model lays the foundation for the 50-60 page quarterly SHIPS Market Reports, which provide a comprehensive, independent guide to medium
term developments, complementing historical and forecast data with in-depth text and charts highlighting and analysing market dynamics and risks.

MSI SHIPS Forecasting Model Flow

Economic Assumptions

(1) MSI Sector Models

(Seaborne Trade and Required Fleet)

(2) Contracting Volumes

(3) Market Balances

(4) Newbuilding Prices

(Contracting Forecasts for 31 Ship

Types and Sizes)

(Orderbook, Shipyard Forward Cover,

Shipyard Utilisation Rate)

(Newbuilding Prices for 41 Ship

Types and Sizes)

(2) Replacement Demand

(Fleet Age, Scrap Age, Regulatory
Environment, Technical Obsolescence)

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

(3) Shipbuilding Capacity

(Physical Capacity by Region,
Productivity Growth)

(4) Shipyard Costs

(Shipyard Cost Index, F/X Rates, Interest Rates, Inflation, Steel Price,
Productivity)

Email: info@msiltd.com

Shipbuilding Industry Planning Service (SHIPS)

Standard Model and Report Content

On Demand / Consultancy Services

(1) MSI Sector Models

Historical and forecast seaborne trade volume and required fleet from MSIs
sector models covering:
- Dry bulk
- Chemical tankers
- Vehicle carriers
- Containerships
- LNG carriers
- Reefer
- Oil Tankers
- LPG carriers
- Offshore
- General cargo / MPP

SHIPS provides a unique analysis of world trade, allowing users to compare and
contrast long-term trends in key commodities
A coherent, pan-sectoral view of global vessel demand and key drivers feed into
alternative scenarios for long-term trade and the changing fleet composition

(2) Contracting Volumes and

Replacement Demand
Newbuilding contracting, orderbook, deliveries, cancellations, slippage,
scrapping and fleet forecasts for 31 ship types and size segments (in CGT,
GT, Dwt and number of ships):
- Dry bulk (4 size ranges)
- LNG carriers (1)
- RoRo (1)
- Containerships (7)
- LPG carriers (3)
- RoPax (1)
- Oil tankers (8)
- General cargo / MPP (1)
- Cruise (1)

The implications of changing type and size preferences can be assessed

Evolving views of world trade easily translated into alternative fleet growth
scenarios
Presentation of data in a range of units allows different messages to be
extracted by a variety of end-users

(3) Shipbuilding Capacity and

Market Balances
Shipyard capacity by country / region:
- Japan
- W Europe
- S Korea
- E Europe
- China
- N America
Total orderbook
Shipyard forward cover (measured in years)
Shipyard utilisation rate (%)

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

- Other
- Total

Newbuilding prices are a key driver for asset values. SHIPS allows users across the
shipping industry to understand the impact of global trends on individual shipping
sectors.
Shipbuilding capacity is more fluid than ever with new yards still being built while
existing facilities falter under the lack of new orders and low prices. SHIPS provides
the detail behind the headline numbers

Email: info@msiltd.com

Shipbuilding Industry Planning Service (SHIPS)

Standard Model and Report Content

On Demand / Consultancy Services

(4) Shipyard Costs and
Newbuilding Prices

Shipyard costs by key country / region:

- Steel plate price
- Productivity
- Foreign exchange rates
- Average shipyard cost index
- Wage inflation

Drawing on MSIs full range of macroeconomic inputs, SHIPS provides users with
insight into the key drivers of yard costs in each region.

Steel prices are monitored in key Asian countries.

Manufacturing wages are tracked along with forex trends.

Shipyard cost distribution by key country / region broken down into:

- Steel
- Labour
- Machinery
Consolidated newbuilding price indices:
- Average shipyard price - bulk commodity vessel types ($/CGT and indexed)
- Average shipyard price - specialised vessel types ($/CGT and indexed)
Newbuilding prices for 41 ship types and size segments (in $ Mn):
- Dry bulk (4 size ranges)
- LNG carriers (1)
- RoRo (2)
- Containerships (11)
- LPG carriers (4)
- RoPax (2)
- Oil tankers (6)
- General cargo / MPP (1)
- Cruise (2)
- Offshore
- Vehicle carriers (1)
- Chemical tankers (6)
- Reefer (1)

SHIPS underpins MSIs unparalleled ability to look across the industry at a global
level and translate that perspective into sectoral analysis
Alternative scenarios for MSIs unique shipbuilding price indices are provided based
on the inputs identified above.
These provide the starting point for future asset values, underpinning investment
evaluations

Builder Market Shares

(BMS)
Builder Market Shares (BMS) is an optional add-on service to SHIPS and provides analysis and forecasts of contracting and deliveries by shipbuilder:
- By shipbuilding country
- By vessel type and size
BMS provides an assessment of which countries will win / lose most in the contest for new orders
BMS assists equipment and shipyard services suppliers in planning allocation of resources in the context of the changing global market landscape

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

Email: info@msiltd.com