Hydrological Modeling Chapter1 2

Introduction Hydrological Modelling
Dr. Lothar Zimmermann

Bavarian Forest Institute
Phone:
08161-71-4914
For questions:
Lothar.Zimmermann@lwf.uni-muenchen.de
Zimmermann
Hydrological Modeling 1
Lecture: Hydrological Modeling

Short description:
Overview in application of hydrological models in
water ressources management in order to quantify
effects of land use and climate change on water
budget (ground water recharge) and flood
generation
Aim of the course:

General knowledge about hydrological
problems and their solution by models

practical work experience with a model
introduction towards sophisticated models
Zimmermann
What is Hydrological Modeling Good for?

Climate and land use change and its
impacts on the water budget, discharge
and water quality
Extremes
Flood forecast and protection
Drought and low flows
River management
Ground water management
Zimmermann
Structure of the lecture

1. Water budget and its components (Review)
2. Model theory for water budget models
3. Change of land use and effects for water and
element budget
4. Climate change scenarios
5. Practical examples with BROOK90
Zimmermann
Water Circle Components of a Landscape
Transpiration and
Interception from
plants
Precipitation
(rain, snow)
River flow,
discharge
Evaporation from bare soil
Transpiration and
Interzeption from
plants
Overland flow
Soil Percolation
Interflow
Soil
Percolation
Soil
SoilPercolation
Percolation
Capillary rise
Groundwater flow
(mod. after Bremicker 1999)
Zimmermann
water Budget
Precipitation (P):
Rainfall, snowfall, (fog, dew)
Evapotranspiration : Transpiration (T) from plants through stomata
(ET)
Interception (I) from wet plant surfaces
Evaporation (E) from bare soil
Runoff (R):
Overland flow, surface stormflow RO
Interflow RI(surface near lateral flow in the soil)
Ground water flow RG(exfiltration from ground
water aquifers), base flow
Storage (S):
Change in Soil and Ground Water Storage
ET= E + I + T
P = ET + R +/- S
R= RO + RI + RG
Zimmermann
Water budget components in the Eastern U.S
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Precipitation: Measurement of Rainfall

German Hellmann collector 200cm
Unit: 1 l/m2*d = 1 mm/d

Zimmermann
(Maidment 1982)
Precipitation: Correction for systematic undercatch

3 main errors:
Wind
10%
Evaporation
2-3%
Interception
2-3%
Mean rain gauge deficiency for

snowfall of US gauges in dependence on wind speed
(Maidment 1982)
Zimmermann
Wind shield
(Dyck&Peschke 1995)
Precipitation: Measurement of snow height and

water equivalent
Water equivalent:
Depth of water produced by the melted snow
Snowpack depth
Water equivalent=snow density [kg/m**3]*snow depth [m]

Zimmermann
Areal Precipitation: IDW Inverse Distance Weighting

Catchment with areal precipitation
Catchment with precipitation gauges

point precipitation
Zimmermann
Variability of Precipitation
Precipitation DWD-Weihenstephan year/vegetation period in comparison
to long-term average (1951-80 resp. since 1995 : 1961-90)
Zimmermann
Evapotranspiration: Measurement
Lysimeter
Zimmermann
Evaporation pan
Evapotranspiration: Energy and Water Budget
L. E
Energy balance
Water balance
Energy
flux densities
Rn:
radiation balance, net radiation [W/m2]
G:
heat flow in the ground [W/m2]
H:
sensible heat flux [W/m2]
L.E:
latent heat flux [W/m2]
Zimmermann
SW
Fluxes
Energy
flux densities
Latent heat and evapotranspiration

- units In general:
For E:
Flux
energy flux density

density of water latent heat of water
L.E
L
E:
Evaporation, Evapotranspiration
L.E:
Latent heat flux density
density of water [1000 kg m-3]
L:
latent heat of water [2.45*106 J kg-1] at 21.5C

L= 2501-2.37*T [kJ*kg-1]
Zimmermann
T in C
Potential evapotranspiration
Definition:
Maximum possible evapotranspiration under given climatic conditions
2 * If
Short-cut grass is in the midst of a large, unbroken, similarly
vegetated stretch of land
Soil moisture is so plentiful that uptake by plants is not inhibited
Advantage:
Calculation by meteorological quantities
(air temperature, relative humidity, net or global radiation, sunshine
duration, windspeed)
Zimmermann
Potential evapotranspiration: Upper limit
Water equivalent of net radiation
Rn
L
Rn: net radiation [W m-2]

The water equivalent of net radiation is the upper limit for potential evapotranspiration if sensible (H) and ground heat flux (G) is neglected (see energy balance).
It describes that all net incoming radiative energy is completely used for the
evaporation of water, so it assumes that no bodies are warmed (heat flow in the
ground G) or that air is warmed and bubbles up as eddy (sensible heat flow). For
real calculations the terms of H and G cannot be neglected.
From energy balance:
Zimmermann
L.ET=Rn-G-H
G, H neglected
Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae I

Haude: [mm/d]
ETP
f (es
e: vapour pressure at 2 pm localtime
e)
[hPa]
es: saturation vapour pressure at 2 pm [hPa]

f:
monthly proportional factor (empirical)
Vapour deficit driven by air temperature and therefore

indirectly by radiation
Zimmermann
Empirical monthly factors dependent on vegetation type
Zimmermann
Haude: Empirical monthly factors also dependent on altitude
Upper physical limit of ET
Zimmermann
Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae II

Priestley-Taylor
ETP
s
s
* Rn G
1.26 (arid: 1.74)
s:
slope of vapour pressure curve e(T) [hPa*K-1]
psychrometric constant [hPa*K-1]
Rn:
net radiation [Wm-2]
G:
ground heat flow [Wm-2]
Psychrometric constant :
= air pressure p [Pa]* specific heat of air at constant pressure [J*kg-1*K-1] / (m*L) [J*kg-1]
m: ratio of individual gas constants for water vapor and dry air =0.622
= 0.016286 * p/L
Zimmermann
p=1013.25 hPa, T=15.2C
= 0.67hPa*K-1
Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae III

Penman
ETP
Wind function
Slope of the saturation vapor curve
Latent heat of water
Rn
s*
L
f ( u) ( e s
e)
f(u)=0.26 (1+0,54u)
s=4098T / (237.3+T)
L=2501-2.37T
[mm/hPa]
[hPa/K]
[kJ/kg]
u in m/s
T in C
From all three formulae for potential evapotranspiration PENMAN is the most
pyhsically based one since it considers
radiation
vapour deficit
ventilation (wind)
as the three meteorological driving forces of evapotranspiration.
Zimmermann
Actual Evapotranspiration
PENMAN-MONTEITH
Zimmermann
Evapotranspiration: Comparison of ETP

Potential Evapotranspiration Schluchsee/Black Forest
900
800
700
mm/a
600
500
Rn / L
Penman
Priestley-Taylor
Haude forest
Water balance P-R
400
300
200
100
0
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
mean
Hydrological Years
Zimmermann
Variability of Evapotranspiration
Evapotranspiration acc. to Haude and climatic water balance DWD
Weihenstephan 1991-2001
Zimmermann
Soil water
Zimmermann
Soil Retention: Measurement of Soil Moisture

5cm
Therm
ofhler
10cm
Therm
ofhler
,TD
R
-Sonde
20cm
Tensiom
eter
,TD
R
-Sonde
50cm
90cm
130cm
D
atalogger
Sae
t til
180cm
Tensiom
eter
,TD
R
-Sonde
2m
Zimmermann
3m
Measurement of soil water content by

TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry)
Quantity: volumetric water content [cm3/cm3 or
volume-%)
Principle:
Retardation
of
propagation
velocity
of
electromagnetic waves in wet soil
High dielectric constant of water ( =82) compared to
dry soil ( < 5) and air ( = 1)
Strong correlation between dielectric constant in the
soil and volumetric water content
Zimmermann
Annual variation of soil water content
Zimmermann
Matric potential
The matric potential describes

with how much energy, as a result
of the soils capillary and
adhesive forces, water is hold by
the soil
[hPa, cm WC]
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
m . NN
Change of Matric Potentials within a Field
A18
465
Erosion
spillway
460 Gleyic
features
455
18
Surface Morphology
and stratigraphy
influence soil moisture
and runoff generation
16
-100
14
Woche
-200
12
-300
10
-400
8
-500
6
-600
4
-700
2
-800
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
Rasterpunkte
Transect of tensiometers in 90 cm depth: change of matric potentials in dependent on

site and slope position
Annual variation of
Open-field precipitation
Potential evapotranspiration
Matric potential (soil moisture)
Snow cover
Zimmermann
Runoff: Registration of Water Level
Zimmermann
Runoff: Measurement of Flow Velocity I
R Runoff, discharge = flow velocity * river profile area A

(width*water depth)
R = v*A
Zimmermann
Runoff: Measurement of Flow Velocity II
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Runoff: Stage-Discharge Curve I
Discharge [m3/s] = f (Water level (Stage))
Zimmermann
Runoff: Stage-Discharge Curve II
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Example for monitoring water and element fluxes

Lage der
Position
ofWehre
weirs
und
Drnagen
and
drains
A7
BN
100 m
Acker 19
BE6
A4
BW4
Brache
A6
Wiese
automatic
sampler
A2 A1
A5
A3
Acker 20
Waldrand
BW1
Fichtenwald
60
V-weir
pressure
gauge
Laptop
Datalogger
Here, discharge and element concentration are

continuously monitored and stored in a data
logger.
V-notch, sharp crested weir
Defined relation
between h and Q
Q=1.34*h2.48
Zimmermann
Catchment area
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Catchment I
impermeable
Ground water
Surface catchment
permeable
Underground catchment
Zimmermann
Water divide
Catchment II
Definition:
A catchment is the area in horizontal projection in km, limited
by water divides through which at a certain point of the river all
discharge originates
The water divide can be constructed in a topographical map
including isohypses. It starts from a point at the river (river
profile) by cutting the isohypses vertically.
Zimmermann
Surface and Subsurface Catchment
Zimmermann
Groundwater Definitions I
Zimmermann
Groundwater Definitions II
Ground water recharge for confined aquifer
Piezometric surface
Unconfined
confined
The height of the water table of a confined ground water aquifer depends on the
highest point of its watertable, even if not present it defines the piezometric surface
Zimmermann
Flow regime in dependence on geology

Salt river:
impermeable, shallow soils
(clayey glacial till)
Manistee River:
deep, permeabale soils
Zimmermann
Structure of the lecture

1. Water budget and its components (Review)
2. Model theory for water budget models
3. Change of land use and effects for water and
element budget
4. Climate change scenarios
5. Practical examples with BROOK90
Zimmermann
Land use
Zimmermann
Natural Land use change

Bavarian Forest
National Park
No countermeasures against
bark beetles
Zimmermann
Water Budget Model as Scenario Tool

Hydrometeorology
River bed parameter
Basin characterisitics
State of the System
Discharge
Input for Water quality and ground water models
Change in the state of the system (scenario) controllable
Operational forecast
Zimmermann
What is a system, a process, a model?

Input p
System
Output q
P-q=dS/dt
A model describes a system and its processes.
A system is an unit of elements which is separated from its environment and
relates an input of element, energy or information to an output of element, energy
or information in its time pattern to each other.
A process is defined as quantitative or qualitative change with time. For
hydrological processes, in most cases, the coordinates of a water body or
particle are changed, together with a change in temperature, pressure or other
properties of water. They are often non-linear.
The operation of the system is modelled.

Zimmermann
Model requirements
A model should include:
basic laws (continuity, geometry, boundary conditions)
structure of the system
parameters of the system
A model is an idealized abstraction of reality. Models should be

represetative of real systems.
Zimmermann
Hydrological System
A catchment (watershed) or a defined section between two

gauges at a river or a lake is a system.
It consists out of subsystems like land surface (plant canopy),
soil, groundwater, river bed, epi- and hypolimnion etc.
Zimmermann
Classification of hydrological models

Aim of the model application?
real-time forecasting, scenarios, planning
Which type of system is modelled?

aquifers, catchment, river section
Which hydrological process or variable?

infiltration, ET, ground water recharge
Which degree of deterministic behaviour (cause-effect

relationships)?
Zimmermann
Overview of hydrological models

Deterministic Models
(Cause-Effect-Relations
Fundamental
Laws (Hydrodynam.)
Conceptual
Models
Distributed Models
(areal-detailed information)
Raster
Zimmermann
Elementary
Unit Areas
Stochastic Models
(Statistical relations)
Larger
Subareas
Black Box
Models
Lumped Models
(no/coarse spatial partitioning)
Statistical
distribution
No
Distribution
Stochastic models
Probalistic models
probability distribution functions of certain hydrological variables
(extremes: floods, low flows, heavy precipitation events etc.)
Described by parameters of the probability distribution function: mean,
variance, curtosis etc.
Time series models

Used for the extrapolation in time of hydrological variables with their
statistical properties maintained (Auto-regression, moving average and
combination out of both)
Zimmermann
Description of process in dependence on spatial

process resolution (acc.to Becker 1995)
Scale
micro
Zimmermann
Length
< 100 m
Area
Process
description
< 0,01 km2
Basic
physical laws
meso
0,1 30 km
0,01-1000 km2
Physically based
conceptual models
macro
>30 km
>1000 km2
Conceptual models
Discretization in space and time

Discretization in time
According to the aim of the modeling different time steps have to be
used (e.g. floods, urban drainage down to minutes, water budget
daily to monthly)
Discretization in space
Input data, parameters which describe the basin (topography, land
use, soils)and resulting fluxes of energy and mass are spatially
heterogeneous
Raster, homogeneous areas, larger

subareas or statistical distribution
Zimmermann
Example spatial discretization
Subcatchments as block
models
Zones or hydrotopes,
for element transport further
separated into segments or
cascades
Regular raster
Zimmermann
Scale and regionalization problem

Aims, contents and methods of the hydrological models are
different according to the scale considered.
The bigger the scale, the simpler the approach.
Loss of information through aggregation (e.g. aggregation of

land use).
Difficulty to transfer the model results of one catchment to
another catchment (regionalization) since the hydrological
factors (relief, soils, geology, land use, climate) are very
complex and interact in a very complex, non-linear pattern.
Zimmermann
Complex hydrological factors: hydrotopes
Zimmermann
Errors in hydrological models

Error of model:
Decreases with increasing model complexity
Error of measurement (input data)
Increases with increasing model complexity since data
demand increase
error
Total error
Input error
model error Model complexity
Zimmermann
Lumped Water Budget Model

Deterministic Models
(Cause-Effect-Relations
Fundamental
Laws (Hydrodynam.)
Conceptual
Models
Distributed Models
(areal-detailed information)
Elementary
Unit Areas
Zimmermann
Stochastic Models
(Statistical relations)
Larger
Subareas
Black Box
Models
Lumped Models
(no/coarse spatial partitioning)
Statistical
distribution
No
Distribution
Water Budget Model Structure

Due to the complexity of the hydrologic
system the hydrologic processes are
describes in modules (subroutines).
Modules are:
precipitation
potential evapotranspiration
snow melt
overland and river flow
unsaturated and saturated soil zone
exchange between ground water and
river
etc.
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
The modular structure has the advantage

that according to the aim of the modeling
more sophisticated approaches can be
chosen.
Input data- in general

Process variables
Precipitation, global radiation or sunshine duration, relative humidity, air
temperature, wind
Physical plot or basin characteristics

Catchment area, latitude, slope, exposition, mean elevation height, land use,
porosity of the soil, field capacity, permanent wilting point, root depth, land use,
LAI etc.
Model parameter
precipitation correction, interception and land surface storage capacity, storage
constants, percentage of overland flow, temperature limit for snow/rain, snow
melt temperature, day degree factor for snow melt, retention factor for snow
cover, starting values for the storages
Test and control data

Discharge, percentage of ground water flow, soil moisture and
evapotranspiration measurements at certain points
Zimmermann
Lumped Water Budget Model BROOK90

Short description
Zimmermann
Modeling of subsystem:
Precipitation
Zimmermann
Precipitation PREC has to be

corrected for systematic
undercatch outside the model
while pre-processing the
meteorological input data, then
division into snowfall fraction
(SFAL) and rainfall (RFAL),
these are further divided into
the fractions which are
intercepted (SINT, RINT) and
which fall through the canopy
(RTHR, RTHR). Throughfall is
further reduced by the amount
of rain which is stored within
the snow cover (SNOW). The
snow cover is reduced by
evaporation (SNVP) and
snow melt (SMLT) while the
last is added with the remaining
throughfall to the net rainfall
(RNET).
Concept of variably
saturated source
areas
From Maidment
Zimmermann
Runoff formation
Zimmermann
Net rainfall RNET is divided

into surface runoff (SRFL) and
into infiltration into the soil
(SLFL). The soil water
storage (SWATI (1->n))
consists of several layers. The
infiltration SLFL which can be
regarded as fast deep
infiltration by macropores is
divided into two components
within the soil: first infiltration
by macropores in each layer
(INFL(1->n)) of the soil matrix,
second a fast downslope
bypass flow through pipes
(BYFL(1->n)) which does not
enter the soil matrix. Within the
soil we have a vertical matrix
flow (VRFL(I)), when layers
are saturated another
downslope, slow flow (DSFL)
is generated.
Lumped Water Budget Model BROOK90

Flow components
SRFL:
Overland flow
BYFL:
Bypass flow
SLFL:
surface infiltration
INFL:
macropore infiltration
VRFL:
vertical matric flow
DSFL:
slope parallel interflow
GWFL:
ground water flow
FLOW=SRFL+BYFL+DSFL+GWFL
Zimmermann
Evapotranspiration
From each soil layer according
to root density water is
withdrawn through
transpiration (TRAN(I->n)),
from the first soil layer in
addition also soil evaporation
(SLVP) takes place, if snow
cover is present snow
evaporation (SNVP) as well,
the interception storages
(INTR, INTS) are emptied as
well by interception
evaporation (IRVP, ISVP)
Zimmermann
Input data- Brook90

Process variables
[unit]
global radiation
maximum and minimum of air temperature
vapour pressure
wind speed
precipitation
Discharge
Zimmermann
in dfile.dat
[MJ cm-2d-1]
[C]
[kPa]
[m/s]
[mm/d]
[mm/d]
Input data- in general

Process variables
Precipitation, global radiation or sunshine duration, relative humidity, air
temperature, wind
Physical plot or basin characteristics

Catchment area, latitude, slope, exposition, mean elevation height, land use,
porosity of the soil, field capacity, permanent wilting point, root depth, land use,
LAI etc.
Model parameter
precipitation correction, interception and land surface storage capacity, storage
constants, percentage of overland flow, temperature limit for snow/rain, snow
melt temperature, day degree factor for snow melt, retention factor for snow
cover, starting values for the storages
Test and control data

Discharge, percentage of ground water flow, soil moisture and
evapotranspiration measurements at certain points
Zimmermann

Hydrological Modeling Chapter1 2

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Introduction Hydrological Modelling

Dr. Lothar Zimmermann

Lecture: Hydrological Modeling

Aim of the course:

problems and their solution by models

What is Hydrological Modeling Good for?

Structure of the lecture

Water Circle Components of a Landscape

Evaporation from bare soil

Water budget components in the Eastern U.S

Precipitation: Measurement of Rainfall

Unit: 1 l/m2*d = 1 mm/d

Precipitation: Correction for systematic undercatch

Mean rain gauge deficiency for

Precipitation: Measurement of snow height and

Water equivalent=snow density [kg/m**3]*snow depth [m]

Areal Precipitation: IDW Inverse Distance Weighting

Catchment with precipitation gauges

Evapotranspiration: Energy and Water Budget

radiation balance, net radiation [W/m2]

heat flow in the ground [W/m2]

sensible heat flux [W/m2]

latent heat flux [W/m2]

Latent heat and evapotranspiration

energy flux density

Latent heat flux density

density of water [1000 kg m-3]

latent heat of water [2.45*106 J kg-1] at 21.5C

Soil moisture is so plentiful that uptake by plants is not inhibited

Potential evapotranspiration: Upper limit

Water equivalent of net radiation

Rn: net radiation [W m-2]

Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae I

e: vapour pressure at 2 pm localtime

es: saturation vapour pressure at 2 pm [hPa]

monthly proportional factor (empirical)

Vapour deficit driven by air temperature and therefore

Empirical monthly factors dependent on vegetation type

Haude: Empirical monthly factors also dependent on altitude

Upper physical limit of ET

Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae II

1.26 (arid: 1.74)

slope of vapour pressure curve e(T) [hPa*K-1]

psychrometric constant [hPa*K-1]

net radiation [Wm-2]

ground heat flow [Wm-2]

p=1013.25 hPa, T=15.2C

Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae III

Evapotranspiration: Comparison of ETP

Soil Retention: Measurement of Soil Moisture

Measurement of soil water content by

Annual variation of soil water content

The matric potential describes

Change of Matric Potentials within a Field

Transect of tensiometers in 90 cm depth: change of matric potentials in dependent on

Matric potential (soil moisture)

Runoff: Registration of Water Level

Runoff: Measurement of Flow Velocity I

R Runoff, discharge = flow velocity * river profile area A

Runoff: Measurement of Flow Velocity II

Runoff: Stage-Discharge Curve I

Discharge [m3/s] = f (Water level (Stage))

Runoff: Stage-Discharge Curve II

Example for monitoring water and element fluxes