Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
global warming potential of close to 100 during the first 15 to 20 years of its life (Dessus et al. 2001)
it will preferentially warm up and expand compared to the other atmospheric gases
and thus drop even further in density making it much lighter than the air. This methane rises into the upper
stratosphere where it is trapped below the hydrogen against which it has an upper diffuse boundary as shown by
It is
clear from the flattening of the methane concentration trend in the stratosphere
between 30 km and 47 km (Nassar et al. 2005) that this probably represents an
expanding, world encompassing methane global warming veil (Figure 2a after Nassar et al.
the fall off in methane concentration between 40 km and 50 km altitude (Figure 2a after Nassar et al. 2005).
2005). This stratospheric methane is above the ozone layer and it appears entirely stable between 30 km and 40
km where it shows little change (Figure 2a after Nassar et al. 2005). It
There is a
transition zone from about 60o to 65o North where the methane begins to spiral
outwards from the Arctic region towards the mid latitudes and upwards towards the
stratosphere to reach the base of the ozone layer where it is being mixed into the
stratosphere by giant vortices active at different times (Light 2012; NSIDC 2011a). The continuous
the ozone layer unimpeded in a tropospheric - stratospheric circulation system to be discussed later.
vertical motion of the methane in the Arctic region as it rises to the stratosphere between 60o to 65o North which
has a lateral motion impressed on it at lower latitudes must set up a methane partial pressure - concentration
gradient between the Arctic surface atmospheric methane emissions and the stratospheric methane global warming
Therefore any marked increase in the surface methane concentration and partial
pressure should be marked by similar increases in the upper stratosphere within the
methane global warming veil. A further consequence of the light methane rising like
hydrogen into the upper stratosphere where it forms a stable zone beneath the
hydrogen between 30 km and 50 km height, is that this methane is never recorded
in the mean global warming gas measurements made at Mauna Loa. We therefore
have a completely separate high reservoir for methane, which at the moment we
only have vague information on and it may contain sufficient methane gas to
multiply the Mauna Loa readings by a considerable amount. G raphic Display of The Effects of
veil.
the Methane Warming Veil Figure 2b is a graphic display of the atmosphere from 0 to 55 km altitude versus
increasing Arctic atmospheric methane concentration reaching up to 6000 ppb (6 ppmv methane). The troposphere,
tropopause, stratosphere, stratopause, mesosphere, and ozone layer are from Heicklen, 1976. The various events
related to global warming (droughts, water stress, coral bleaching and death, deglaciation, sea level rise and major
global extinction) are from Parry et al. 2007. Figure 2b has been designed to graphically portray the growth of the
subsea Arctic atmospheric methane as new observations become available and how this build up strengthens the
methane concentration in the stratosphere where it forms a world encompassing methane global warming veil at an
altitude of 30 km to 47 km. Figure 2b will be used to progressively chart mankind's Arctic methane emission,
further depleted, because the rising methane behaves like a chloro-fluoro-hydrocarbon (CFC) under the action of
sunlight increasing the damaging effects of ultraviolet radiation on the Earths surface (Engineering Toolbox, 2011;
emission zones through the lower stratosphere up into the stratospheric veil between 30 km and 47 km height
shows that it will become free of a continuous snow cover by about 2014, so that the underlying old ice cover which
temperature rise in Arctic waters and the consequent destabilization of shelf and
slope methane hydrates releasing large volumes of methane into the atmosphere
(Carana, 2012d; AIRS data Yurganov, 2012). As a consequence, the enhanced global warming
will melt the global ice sheets at a fast increasing rate causing the sea level to
begin rising at 15.182 cm/yr in the first few years after 2015 giving an accurate way
of gauging the worldwide continental ice loss (Figure 3). This sudden increase in the
rate of sea level rise will mark the last moment mankind will have to take control of
the Arctic wide blowout of methane into the atmosphere and a massive effort must
be made by governments and oil companies to stem the flow of the erupting subsea
methane in the Arctic before this time.The loss of complete snow cover in Greenland
precedes the loss of the sea ice cap in the Arctic by a year which may be due to the
more extreme weather conditions that usually prevail over continents than over the
sea which moderates the weather.Methane and Ozone Circulation The components of the atmosphere undergo diffusion by a
number of processes. The mean speed of horizontal displacement of the stratosphere around the Earth is known to be about 120 km/hr from the Krakatoa
eruption in 1883 (Heicklen, 1976). Winds also transfer material northward and southward in the stratosphere in quite a different pattern to that of the
tropospheric wind flows (Heicklen, 1976). Mean wind velocities within the global methane warming veil and above it (36 km to 91 km altitude) are some
48 m/sec during the day and 56 m/sec at night (Olivier 1942, 1948). Large latitudinal variations in the atmospheric density at 100 km altitude require
meridional flows of 10 to 50 m/sec (Heicklen, 1976). At subarctic latitudes at the height of the global methane warming veil (30 km to 50 km altitude) the
ozone concentration lies between 1.7 to 1.9*10^12 molecules/cc to 5.4*10^10 molecules/cc and does not vary during the day (Heicklen, 1976). The subarctic ozone reaches a maximum in the lower stratosphere in winter at an altitude of 17 km to 19 km (7.7*10^12 molecules/cc) and in summer at an
altitude of 18 km to 19 km (5.1*10^12 molecules/cc)(Heicklen, 1976). The seasonal variation of ozone in the stratosphere in Arctic latitudes is caused by a
circulation transfer system which moves ozone from the upper stratosphere in equatorial and mid-latitudes to the Arctic lower stratosphere during the
winter (Heicklen, 1976). The stored Arctic lower stratospheric ozone is lost in the summer by chemical dissociation when it moves downwards or by
photosynthetic destruction if it moves upwards (Heicklen, 1976). The Hippo methane concentration and temperature profiles shown in Figures 2a and 2b
extend from the surface to some 14.4 km altitude and from the North Pole southwards across the Equator to a latitude of -40o south (Wofsy et al. 2009).
As already described the methane flow trends on Hippo methane concentration and temperature profiles have been interpreted in detail using a similar
system to that used by the Meteor expedition in determining deep ocean circulation patterns from salinity and temperature data (Figure 2a - see Tharp
and Frankel, 1986). Methane erupted from destabilizing methane hydrates in the subsea Arctic and of methanogenic origin has almost half the density of
air at STP in dry Arctic conditions and is seen to be rising vertically to the top of the Troposphere between 70o North and the North Pole on the Hippo
methane concentration profiles (Engineering Toolbox, 2011; Wofsy et al. 2009 ). On the Hippo data, at latitudes less than 70o North, the rising methane
clouds are being spun out and laterally spread in the middle and upper troposphere and upper stratosphere by stratospheric vortices (NSIDC, 2011a). The
methane appears to be entering the lower stratosphere in the low latitudes between 25o North and the equator which it then overlaps and is carried into
the Southern Hemisphere to almost -40o South (Figure 2a)(Light 2011c). In the equatorial regions the growth of the methane global warming veil will
amplify the effects of El Nino in the Pacific further enhancing its deleterious effects on the climate. As this vertically and laterally migrating methane
enters the stratosphere in equatorial and mid-latitude positions it is helping to displace the equatorial and mid-latitude ozone which migrates downwards
and northwards towards the north pole (Heicklen, 1976) to complete the cycle. The methane may be partly drawn up into the lower and upper
stratosphere by a global pressure differential set up by the poleward and downward motion of the ozone (Heicklen, 1976) Once the methane has entered
the stratosphere and has helped to displace some of the ozone, it is able to accumulate in the upper stratosphere beneath the hydrogen as a continuous
stable layer between 30 and 47 km forming a world wide global warming veil (Figures 2a and 2b; Light 2011c). In the Arctic region methane has been
shown to rise nearly vertically and is locally charging the global warming veil in addition to methane that has diffused from mid latitude and equatorial
regions. There must therefore exist a partial pressure gradient between the Arctic surface methane anomalies and the upper stratosphere methane global
warming veil such that any increase of the surface methane concentration and partial pressure should lead to a transfer of methane into the upper
stratosphere and to a similar increase in the partial pressure and concentration of the methane there. The methane partial pressure gradient that exists
between the anomalous Arctic ocean surface methane emissions and the stratospheric methane global warming veil at 30 km to 47 km height is partly
controlled by the complex motions and reactions of the Arctic ozone layer which separates the troposphere from the upper stratosphere and shows little
variation in the day or between summer and winter (Heicklen, 1976). Consequently the concentration of the methane in the upper stratospheric global
warming veil should track the increase of Arctic atmospheric methane to some degree and knowledge of the latter can allow absolute maximum estimates
to be made on the magnitude of the former. This will give a rough estimate of what the highest value the methane concentration is likely to reach within
the global warming veil within the Arctic area. This is a worst case scenario which has to be assumed in order to prevent Murphys law being operative (i.e.
if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong in estimating the maximum methane value). An alternative is to view this solution of the methane concentration
in the global warming veil as German over-engineering in order to eliminate any possible errors in the estimate of the maximum value. My Father, a Saxon
would have commended me on this approach. This is precisely what mainstream world climatologists have failed to do in their modeling of the effects of
Arctic methane hydrate emissions on the mean heat balance of the atmosphere and why we are now facing such a severe climatic catastrophe from which
we may very likely not escape. Let us hope and pray that the Merlin Lidar methane detection satellite does not find methane magnitudes in the Arctic
global warming methane veil (30 km 47 km altitude) at the levels predicted in this paper, when it is launched in 2014. The maximum global methane veil
concentration in the mid latitudes (30o to 60o North) between 30 km and 40 km altitude was estimated by occultation at some 0.97 ppmv methane (970
ppb) between February to April, 2004 (Nassar et al. 2005). In 2004 - 2005 the Arctic atmosphere at Point Barrow, Alaska reached an anomalous maximum
of some 2.014 ppmv methane (2014 ppb)(Carana, 2012e). This means that the most extreme methane concentration anomalies in the Arctic (Point
Barrow) are leading the maximum concentration in the global warming methane veil by some 1.044 ppmv methane (1044 ppb). Consequently as a first
rule of thumb assuming that the vertical methane partial pressure gradient has remained relatively unchanged, we can estimate the maximum methane
concentration within the Arctic methane global warming veil between 30 km and 47 km height by subtracting 1.044 ppmv methane (1044 ppb) from
measured surface Arctic atmospheric value at the same time. High methane concentrations of 2 ppmv (2000 ppb) were being reached in the Arctic in
2011 (position a. in Figure 2b) similar to those recorded in 2004 2005 at Point Barrow Alaska (Carana, 2012e). It is therefore likely that by 2011 that the
maximum concentration of methane in the methane global warming veil had remained relatively unchanged since 2004. This is consistent with the start of
major methane emissions in the Arctic in August 2010 as recorded at the Svalbard station and in the East Siberian Shelf in 2011 which would not have
given the emitted gases sufficient time to reach the upper stratosphere(Light, 2012a, Shakova et al. 2010a, b and c). On May 01, 2012 an atmospheric
methane concentration of 2.5 ppmv (2500 ppb) was recorded at Point Barrow indicating an increase in the maximum methane concentration anomaly of
0.5 ppmv methane (500 ppb) in one year (yellow spike on Figure 1; position b. in Figure 2b)(ESRL/GMO graph from Carana 2012b). We can therefore
predict conservatively that the maximum concentration of the methane in the Arctic stratospheric methane global warming veil between 30 km and 47 km
altitude may be as high as 1.456 ppmv methane (1456 ppb) (= 2500 -1044 ppmv) (position b. in Figure 2b)(ESRL/GMO graph from Carana 2012b).
Assuming that the maximum Arctic surface atmospheric methane content continues to increase now at a rate of 0.5 ppmv (500 ppb) each year we can
roughly predict that by 2013 it will have reached 3 ppmv (3000 ppb) and by 2014, 3.5 ppmv (3500 ppb) which is when the Merlin Lidar methane detection
satellite will be launched (Ehret, 2010). Using the previous method of predicting the maximum likely methane content in the Arctic methane global
warming veil between 30 km and 47 km altitude, the maximum for 2013 is 1.956 ppmv methane (1956 ppb)(position c. in Figure 2b) and for 2014 is 2.456
ppmv methane (2456 ppb) (position d. in Figure 2b). This means that by the time the Merlin Lidar satellite is launched the Arctic Ocean will have emited
of people (Figure 2b)(after Parry et al. 2007). This high predicted concentration of
methane in the Arctic methane global warming veil in 2014 is consistent with the
exponentially falling albedo data for the Greenland ice cap which suggests that
major melting will begin in 2014 (Carana, 2012c). The exponential reduction in volume of
the Arctic sea ice to zero in 2015 (Carana, 2012d) will precipitate a massive
increase in the release of Arctic subsea methane from destabilization of the
methane hydrates as the dark ice free Arctic ocean absorbs large quantities of heat
from the sun (Light, 2012a). MERLIN Lidar Satellite The MERLIN lidar satellite (Methane Remote Sensing Lidar Mission) , which is a joint
collaboration between France and Germany will orbit the Earth at 650 km altitude and will be able to detect the methane concentration in the atmosphere
from 50 km altitude to the surface of the Earth (Ehret, 2010). The Lidar methane detection instrument was jointly developed by DLR (Deutches Zentrum
fr Luft und Raumfahrt), ADLARES GmBH and E. ON Ruhrgas AG (Ehret, 2010). This satellite is scheduled to be launched sometime in 2014 (Ehret, 2010)
and will be the first time that real time data will be able to detect the concentration of methane within the world encompassing methane global warming
veil between 30 km and 47 km altitude and give us the first detailed picture of the size of the beast we are dealing with. Previous indications of this layer
in the mid latitudes was made using occultation (Nassar et al. 2005) The high anomalous atmospheric methane contents recorded this year (May 01) at
Barrow Point Alaska (see Figure 2b, Carana 2012b) and the fact that they may be linked via a stable partial pressure gradient with increased maximum
methane contents in the world encompassing global warming veil (estimated at ca 1456 ppb methane) makes it imperative that the Merlin lidar satellite
be launched as soon as is feasibly possible so we can get a clear idea of how high the Earths stratospheric methane concentrations are. The Merlin
satellite will continuously give us real time information on the size of the stratospheric methane global warming veil that is gathering its strength in the
30 km and 47 km height. An early warning of high methane contents in the methane global warming veil will give humanity time to react to the existing
and new threats that are developing in the Arctic. Methane detecting Lidar instruments could also be installed immediately on the International Space
Station to give us early warning of the methane build up in the stratosphere and act as a back up in case the Merlin satellite fails. Sea Level Rise The
progressive rise in sea level from 2015 is shown on Figures 3, 4 and 5. Figures 4 and 5 are simplified versions of Figures 7, 8 and 9 in Light 2012a and
Figures 12 and 13 in Light 2012c. The various events related to global warming (droughts, water stress, coral bleaching and death, deglaciation, sea level
rise and major global extinction) are from Parry et al. 2007. At the time of total worldwide deglaciation, the sea level is estimated to rise some 68.3 metres
(224 feet) (Wales, 2012) The maximum time of inundation of various coastal cities, coastlines and coastal barriers is shown on Table 1 (after Hillen et al.
2010; Hargraves, 2012). Rising sea levels will breach the Thames Barrier by 2029 flooding London. The base of the Washington Monument (D.C.) will be
inundated by 2031. Total global deglaciation > will cause the sea level to rise up the lower 35% of the Washington Monument by 2051 (68.3 m or 224 feet
above present sea level). Because of the massive increase in the strength of the storm systems and waves, high rise buildings in many of the coastal city
centers will suffer irreparable damage and collapse so that the core zones of the cities will be represented by a massive pile of wave pulverised debris.
Unfortunately by that time a large portion of sea life will be extinct and the city debris fields will not form a haven for coral reefs. The seas will probably
still be occupied by the long lasting giant jellyfish (such as are now fished off Japan), rays and sharks (living respectively since 670, 415 and 380 million
years ago) and the sea floor by coeolocanths (living since 400 million years ago)(Calder, 1984). The city rubble zones will probably be occupied by
predatory fish (living since 425 million years ago)(Calder 1984). Life will also continue in the vicinity of oceanic black smokers so long as the oceans
and drill a whole series of shallow directional production drill holes into the subsea subpermafrost free methane
and Geophysics at the University of London. He has a PhD in Signal Processing, the
application of nonstationary statistical methods to the processing of seismic
reflection data, at Kings College London. (Three reasons why climate change is
real, and humans are causing it Paleoclimatology can answer the question of
anthropogenic climate change by using fossils to show links between global
temperatures and CO2 levels,
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/25/three-reasons-climatechange-real-and-humans-cause-it, 6/25/2014) Kerwin
Dire warnings of imminent human-induced climate disaster are constantly in the
news but predictions of the end of the world have been made throughout history
and have never yet come true. Even in the brief period of recorded history, natural
climate change has always been with us whether it is the volcanically induced
crop failures that helped precipitate the French revolution or the medieval warm
period that allowed Vikings to colonise Greenland. So how can we trust that the
computer models scientists use to make predictions are reliable? There is
sometimes reluctance to take experts' words for anything and so we would like to
be shown the evidence. Unfortunately, that is difficult when the details are buried
under hundreds of thousands of lines of computer code which implement
mathematical algorithms of mind-numbing complexity. There is, however, one
branch of science that can reliably give an answer that is easy to understand and
hard not to believe. Evidence written in stone Paleoclimatology the study of
Earth's past climates has used fossils to show links between global temperatures
and carbon-dioxide levels. This record is written in stone. There are fossil plantleaves from 55m years ago that have a microscopic structure which can be
accurately reproduced in modern plants only when grown in a carbon-dioxide-rich
atmosphere. Is it a coincidence that, at the time, it was so warm that crocodiles
were living within the Arctic circle? And this is not an isolated case. A sedimentary
record covering half a billion years shows us exactly what we would expect to see if
climate modellers have done their sums right. Fossil and chemical traces in rocks
indicate that warm periods in Earth's history are associated with higher
concentrations of carbon dioxide and quantitative studies show that this correlation
is, if anything, even stronger than predicted. Simple calculations Those 55m yearold leaves suggest that carbon dioxide concentrations were about four times the
present-day levels and back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that global mean
temperatures were around 7C higher. For comparison, the largely computer-based
predictions published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change imply that
quadrupling carbon-dioxide concentrations should increase temperatures by
between 3C and 9C. The simple paleoclimate example may not nail the case for a
worryingly strong link between carbon dioxide and temperature, but it is good
supporting data. What is most important, however, is that this evidence is hard to
refute. Counter arguments are unconvincing There is little doubt that the recent
rapid increase in carbon dioxide is linked to human activities such as burning of
fossil fuels and deforestation. But does the paleoclimate evidence really tell us that
increased carbon dioxide must mean increased temperatures? One objection might
be that ancient climate change is really evidence for varying solar brightness.
Fluctuating carbon dioxide levels are then a response to climate variation rather
than the cause. However, solar physics tells us that the sun was fainter 55m years
ago rather than brighter, as would be needed for higher temperature. Another
concern is that some important processes, such as ice-sheet disintegration, only
affect climate very slowly. Our warming ice sheets may take centuries to disappear
completely but, when they do, the replacement of reflective-ice by heat-absorbing
rock will warm our planet yet further. The existence of potential complications like
these makes comparisons between paleoclimate change and modern climate
change difficult but it is also one of the reasons why multiple approaches are
needed. If different researchers using different methods nevertheless come up with
more or less the same answer, perhaps they are onto something. Climate change
deniers also confuse the argument by suggesting there is nothing we can do
anyway. China and other rapidly developing countries will dominate carbon dioxide
output in the 21st century. But that is irrelevant if we are simply asking: "Will
increased carbon dioxide levels change our climate?" The ConversationThe fact that
political and technical problems are massively more complex than anything in
climatology is not a reason to stick our heads in the sand. Widespread agreement
that man-made global warming is highly likely would be progress.
sudden collapse of grounded ice, and hence rapid rises in sea level. The picture is complicated further by some offsetting effects, due for instance to
increased plant growth in a warmer, more CO2-rich world. Changes in cloudiness, snowfall and albedo (reflectiveness) of vegetation may have warming or
Earth history, as at the end of the Ice Ages. At one time, at the end of the so-called Younger Dryas event around 12,000 years ago, Europe warmed by
alarmism, and such disastrous shifts are thought to be unlikelybut their consequences are serious enough to be worth guarding against. This is about as
general public across the world, 50 continue to maintain that the climate is not warming, that elevated carbon dioxide does not cause warming, that rising
carbon dioxide and temperatures are not caused by humans, that the consequences of climate change will be benign, or some combination of these
positions. Beyond this understanding, there remains great uncertainty and debate on how much warming will occur for given changes in atmospheric
carbon dioxide, how serious the impacts of this warming will be, how the climate will change at regional and local levels, how much it is worth spending to
Despite
extensive and continuing research, these major uncertainties will persist for the
foreseeable future. Some of the debate is a normative one, about the values of our civilisation, and therefore is not even capable of being
solved by scientific inquiry. Such uncertainty and controversy, though, is not a reason for inaction. After all,
we ban certain drugs suspected to be carcinogenic, without waiting for absolute proof, and we will
only know the truth about some of these climate change disasters when they actually strike. I will
reduce climate change,51 exactly what types of action we should take, and how we should go about encouraging global action.
take as my starting point here, in this fast-evolving area of research, the view that we should attempt to keep total warming below 2-3C.52 The original
goal of the EU, recommended by the International Climate Change Task Force, was for a maximum temperature rise of 2C,53 but given the delay in
different from anything we can observe today (and still more different from the last ice age) that it is inherently hard to say where the warming will
stop.'55
serious consideration,14- mainly on cost grounds. It is, indeed, likely to be one of the more expensive carbon mitigation options, but it does not have to
It is intended to
address otherwise intractable polluterssuch as flying, and to provide a way of returning rapidly to
a pre-industrial atmosphere. In contrast to other 'carbon offset' schemes such as forestry (see Chapter 4), which have been heavily
compete with CCS on large centralised sources, nor with major low-carbon power solutions such as wind or nuclear.
criticised,141 it offers completely verifiable, and unde-niably 'additional', reductions. I will return to this issue in Chapter 6.
and the public confidence that a practical carbon mitigation control option exists , will
reduce cost of CCS should carbon emission controls be adopted, and will maintain the low-cost coal option in an environmentally acceptable manner." Dr.
Moniz added, "There are many opportunities for enhancing the performance of coal plants in a carbon-constrained world higher efficiency generation,
perhaps through new materials; novel approaches to gasification, CO2 capture, and oxygen separation; and advanced system concepts, perhaps guided
by a new generation of simulation tools. An aggressive R&D effort in the near term will yield significant dividends down the road, and should be
undertaken immediately to help meet this urgent scientific challenge." Key findings in this study: Coal is a low-cost, per BTU, mainstay of both the
developed and developing world, and its use is projected to increase. Because of coal's high carbon content, increasing use will exacerbate the problem of
climate change unless coal plants are deployed with very high efficiency and large scale CCS is implemented. CCS is the critical enabling technology
because it allows significant reduction in CO2 emissions while allowing coal to meet future energy needs. A significant charge on carbon emissions is
needed in the relatively near term to increase the economic attractiveness of new technologies that avoid carbon emissions and specifically to lead to
large-scale CCS in the coming decades. We need large-scale demonstration projects of the technical, economic and environmental performance of an
regulatory regime for large-scale commercial sequestration should be developed with a greater sense of urgency, with the Executive Office of the
President leading an interagency process. The U.S. government should provide assistance only to coal projects with CO2 capture in order to demonstrate
technical, economic and environmental performance. Today, IGCC appears to be the economic choice for new coal plants with CCS. However, this could
change with further RD&D, so it is not appropriate to pick a single technology winner at this time, especially in light of the variability in coal type, access
to sequestration sites, and other factors. The government should provide assistance to several "first of a kind" coal utilization demonstration plants, but
only with carbon capture. Congress should remove any expectation that construction of new coal plants without CO2 capture will be "grandfathered" and
granted emission allowances in the event of future regulation. This is a perverse incentive to build coal plants without CO2 capture today.
graduated from a laboratory oddity to a hydrocarbon production nuisance as seen forming inside the chamber bell
being considered as a
potential energy resource for the future. For many decades, countries such as the USA, Canada,
used to cap the spill in the deep water horizon oil well, and so forth, before
Japan, India, and China have funded major research projects to get a better understanding and knowledge of
natural gas hydrates [1].
nearly 80% of the world energy supply will still be generated from oil,
natural gas, and coal. The combustion of these fuels is a major source of carbon
dioxide emissions. Unfortunately, a perceived change in the global climate has been
attributed to the increasing concentration of Green House Gases such as CO2 in the
atmosphere. Geological sequestration of CO2 is a potential solution to this problem.
Typical geological sequestration consists in capturing and storing the gas in a
geological setting such as active and depleted oil/gas reservoir, deep brine
formations, deep coal seams, and coal-bed methane formation [5]. Sequestration of
CO2 in marine and arctic hydrates is considered as an advanced geologic
sequestration concept, which needs further investigation [6]. Gas hydrates are
found in nature, in permafrost and marine environments. They contain mixtures of
gases such as methane and ethane, with carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide as
trace. Methane is the predominant component of natural gas hydrates, which is the
reason they are simply called methane hydrates. Gas hydrates form under specific conditions: (1)
nonfossil fuels,
the right combination of pressure and temperature (high pressure and low temperature), (2) the presence of
hydrate-forming gas in sufficient amounts, and (3) the presence of water. CO2 and CH4 hydrates are of interest with
of production from hydrate deposits. However, the resource is still not commercially viable due to technical,
called methane hydrates, are crystalline compounds, which are constituted of gas and water molecules. The water molecules or host molecules form a
hydrogen-bonded lattice, in which gas molecules or guest molecules are entrapped. The presence of guest molecules stabilizes the lattice due to the sum
of the attractive or repulsive forces between molecules known as the Van der Waals forces. There is no bonding between the host molecules and the guest
molecules, that is, the gas molecules are free to rotate inside the lattice [2, 79]. Gas hydrate formation and dissociation are described by the following
equations: and , where NH is the hydration number and G is the guest molecule. Gas hydrate formation is an exothermic process while gas hydrate
dissociation is endothermic. Gas hydrates come under three distinguishable structures: type I, type II, and type H. All structures involve a network of
interconnected cages. Structure I (sI) hydrates display unit cells that are constituted of 46 water molecules organized into 2 small cavities and 6 large
cavities. The small cavities are dodecahedral cages with 12 pentagonal faces. They are usually denoted as 512 cages. The large cavities are 14-sided
polyhedra (tetrakaidecahedron), which are usually denoted as 51262. The unit cells of Type II hydrates (sII) contain 136 water molecules. They are
organized into 16 small cavities and 8 large cavities. The small cavities are of the same kind as the small cavities in sI hydrates. However, the large
cavities are hexacaidecahedra (51264) with 12 pentagonal faces and 4 hexagonal faces [9]. In 1987, a new hydrate structure was discovered and called
structure H (sH). This structure contains 34 water molecules in its unit cell, forming a hexagonal lattice. Type H hydrates display three types of cavities:
three 512 cages, two 435663 cages, and one large 51268 [9, 10]. Because of the size difference between the cages, the three types of hydrates tend to
trap different kinds of molecules. Type I hydrates are usually formed with smaller molecules such as ethane and hydrogen sulfide. Type II clathrates are
formed by larger molecules such as propane and isobutane. Type H hydrates require the presence of a small molecule such as methane and a type H gas
former like 2-methylbutane and cycloheptane to be created. They are less common in nature than the other types of gas hydrates [9, 10]. Figure 1
illustrates the different sorts of hydrate structures and some of their gas-forming molecules. These structures have been observed with X-ray diffraction.
239397.fig.001 Figure 1: Different types of clathrate hydrates [9]. Methane and carbon dioxide both form type I hydrates. The comparison of their hydrate
phase equilibrium conditions suggests the occurrence of a transition zone between both hydrate equilibrium curves where CO2 hydrates can exist while
CH4 hydrates dissociate into methane gas and water. The hydrate phase diagrams of both compounds are presented in Figure 2. In addition, the heat of
formation of carbon dioxide hydrate (57.98kJ/mole) is greater than the heat of dissociation of methane hydrate (54.49kJ/mole). The heat released from
the formation of carbon dioxide hydrate in the presence of methane hydrate should be sufficient to dissociate the methane hydrate and recover methane
gas [11]. Thirdly, it has been experimentally proven that carbon dioxide is preferentially trapped over methane in the hydrate phase [12]. These
observations fuel the growing interest in the use of carbon dioxide for natural gas recovery from gas hydrate deposits. 239397.fig.002 Figure 2: CH4 and
CO2 hydrate phase diagrams [2]. Gas hydrates can be naturally found in permafrost areas and subsea environments. The temperature and pressure
gradients which are at play underneath the Earth help define specific hydrate occurring zones, when associated to the thermodynamic hydrate equilibrium
conditions. These zones are called hydrate stability zones [8]. Figure 3 displays the hydrate stability zones in permafrost and marine environments. fig3
Figure 3: Hydrate stability zones in permafrost and marine environments [2]. Assessment methods for gas hydrates include seismic studies (bottom
simulating reflectors), pore water salinity measurements, well-logging, and direct observations from core samples [13]. So far, 89 hydrate locations have
been discovered all over the world [14]. These locations are presented in Figure 4. 239397.fig.004 Figure 4: World gas hydrate locations [13].3. Current
Research Status Three main production methods have so far been explored for the recovery of natural gas from hydrate deposits: depressurization,
thermal stimulation, and inhibitor injection [8, 15, 16]. These methods aim at thermodynamically destabilizing the reservoir environment to provoke the
release of the entrapped gas [17, 18]. They have been investigated experimentally, numerically, and in the field. However, they have not yet been used
for commercial production of natural gas hydrates due to remaining technical and economic issues. A fourth method was introduced a few years ago and
is based on the concept of hydrate guest molecule exchange between methane and carbon dioxide in the hydrate phase. In 1996, Ohgaki et al. [12]
examined the possible interactions between these two hydrates by injecting carbon dioxide (gas) into an aqueous-gas hydrate system containing
methane. CO2 displays a higher chemical affinity than CH4 in the hydrate structure since it has a higher heat of formation and equilibrium temperature;
that is, at 1000psi, the equilibrium temperature of CH4 hydrate is approximately 283.15K while the equilibrium temperature of CO2 hydrate is around
286.15K. Ohgaki et al.s experiments resulted in the synthesis of a mixed CO2CH4 hydrate. The equilibrium concentrations obtained for CO2 were
greater in the hydrate phase than those of CH4 and less than the concentrations of CH4 in the gas phase. Nakano et al. (1998) [19] performed a similar
study using carbon dioxide and ethane and obtained comparable results. Smith et al. (2001) [20] inquired the feasibility of exchanging carbon dioxide with
methane in geologic accumulations of natural gas hydrates. They numerically investigated the effect of the pore size distribution on the conversion of CH4
hydrate to CO2 hydrate. It was demonstrated that the guest molecule exchange between CO2 and CH4, in porous media was less thermodynamically
favored, as the pore size decreased. They recommended these numerical results be validated by laboratory experiments. Seo et al. (2001) [21]
experimentally investigated hydrate phase equilibrium processes for mixtures of CO2 and CH4. They determined the existing conditions of quadruple
points () in order to examine the hydrate stability. It was noted that the equilibrium curves of the mixed hydrates lied between those of simple carbon
dioxide and methane hydrates. For a given mixture, the concentration of CO2 in the hydrate phase decreased as the pressure was lowered. In 2003, Lee et
al. [22] published the results of their study on the thermodynamics and kinetics of the conversion of CH4 hydrate to CO2 hydrate. They analyzed the
distribution of guest molecules over different cavities for pure methane hydrates and different mixtures of CO2CH4 hydrates, using solid state NMR
methods. It was observed that the cage occupancy ratio of CH4 in the pure methane hydrate decreased as the concentration of CO2 in the mixture
increased. This was explained by the fact that CO2 preferentially occupied large 51262 cages in the mixed hydrate. In terms of kinetics, it was noticed that
the conversion of CH4 hydrate to CO2 hydrate happened much more quickly than the formations of pure CO2 and CH4 hydrates. The amount of CH4 that
could be recovered from the gas hydrate of composition was limited to 64% of the original entrapped gas, even with a CO2 concentration of 100mol%.
Ota et al. (2004) [23] focused on the gas exchange process using liquid CO2. They performed laboratory measurements using the Raman spectroscopy
and numerical simulations, and they found similar results in terms of feasibility of the molecular gas exchange. Stevens et al. (2008) [24] took the studies
on this topic one step further by publishing his work on the gas exchange between CO2 and CH4 in hydrates formed within sandstone core samples. He
used a MRI to analyze the samples and realized there was formation of CO2 hydrate at the expense of the initial CH4 hydrate. Diffusion seemed to be the
main driving force behind the conversion from CH4 hydrate to CO2 hydrate. A considerable amount of CH4 was released during the process, which was
judged as rapid and efficient. There was no free water present. The permeability of the core was reduced during CH4 hydrate formation. This reduced
permeability was maintained constant during the CH4CO2 exchange, and the permeability levels were considered sufficient for gas transportation. In
2008, Youngjune et al. [25] made a major discovery while they were inquiring the effect of the injection of a binary mixture of N2 and CO2 on methane
hydrate recovery. They found out that the injection of a binary mixture of N2 and CO2, instead of the traditional pure CO2, increased the percentage of
methane recovered from 64% to 85% for type I gas hydrates. They also looked at the potential influence of structural transition by forming a type II CH4
C2H6 hydrate and injecting CO2 and a mixture of CO2 with N2. It was determined that the hydrate structure changed from type II to type I during the gas
injection, thus increasing the gas recovery to more than 90% for CH4. Besides these major thermodynamically related numerical and laboratory
investigations, several studies were conducted to evaluate the potential of this new concept as a field scale production method for methane hydrate
deposits. In 2003, Rice [26] proposed a scheme for methane recovery from marine hydrate accumulations. In this scheme, the produced methane would
be converted into hydrogen and carbon dioxide; then, the carbon dioxide would be reinjected into the ocean to be converted into CO2 hydrates and finally
the produced hydrogen would be used as fuel. Methane would be recovered from hydrates using depressurization combined with thermal stimulation. No
direct molecular gas exchange between CH4 and CO2 was inferred in this production scheme. In 2004, McGrail et al. [27] investigated Ohgaki et al.s
method to determine the rate of CO2 gas penetration in the bulk methane hydrate, using the Raman spectroscopy. They discovered that the rates of CO2
gas penetration were too low for this method to be useful for gas hydrate production. Then, they performed a preliminary study on a new enhanced gas
hydrate recovery concept based on the injection of a microemulsion of CO2 and water in the methane hydrate core samples. The technique was validated
through laboratory experiments and numerical simulation, using a custom model based on STOMP-CO2. Finally, Castaldi et al. (2006) [28] examined the
technical feasibility of applying a down-hole combustion method for gas recovery from hydrate accumulations, while sequestrating CO2 as hydrates. The
gas molecular exchange between CH4 and CO2 was not directly mentioned, but they suggested there should be equality between the rates of CO2
hydrate formation and CH4 hydrate dissociation, during the process. In 2006, Goel [11] released a review of the status of research projects and issues
related to methane hydrate production with carbon dioxide sequestration. It was concluded that although several studies had been performed on the
topic, additional experimental data was needed on the topic of CH4CO2 molecular gas exchange in hydrate-bearing sediments. He emphasized the
importance of fully knowing the thermodynamics and kinetics of the formation and dissociation of this mixed hydrate and of the conversion process, in
porous media. He also pointed out the essence of understanding the equilibrium conditions of the mixed hydrate in sediments as a function of pressure,
Policymakers, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf,
2014) Kerwin
A: OBSERVED IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY, AND ADAPTATION IN A COMPLEX AND
CHANGING WORLD A-1. Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure In recent
decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems
on all continents and across the oceans. Evidence of climate-change impacts is
strongest and most comprehensive for natural systems. Some impacts on human
systems have also been attributed5 to climate change, with a major or minor
contribution of climate change distinguishable from other influences. See Figure
SPM.2. Attribution of observed impacts in the WGII AR5 generally links responses of
natural and human systems to observed climate change, regardless of its cause.6 In
many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering
hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality
(medium confidence). Glaciers continue to shrink almost worldwide due to climate
change (high confidence), affecting runoff and water resources downstream
destruction of homes and indirectly through, for example, increased food prices and
food insecurity. Observed positive effects for poor and marginalized people, which
are limited and often indirect, include examples such as diversification of social
networks and of agricultural practices.15 Violent conflict increases vulnerability to
climate change (medium evidence, high agreement). Large-scale violent conflict
harms assets that facilitate adaptation, including infrastructure, institutions, natural
resources, social capital, and livelihood opportunities.16
catapulting the
United States once again into the position of a major fossil-fuel power. It has already
led to substantial increases in natural-gas production , replacing dirtier and more carbonacross the country from Pennsylvania and Ohio to North Dakota and California, unexpectedly
emitting coal in generating electricity. Together the economic slowdown and the shift from coal to natural gas due to
fracking have resulted in a 12 percent drop in U.S. (direct) carbon dioxide emissions between 2005 and 2012,
developments, a whole new environmental resistance to fracking has arisen in communities throughout North
America, Australia, and elsewhere.
as the Cooperstown Chamber of Commerce, which see and feel fracking's real-life
impacts. They know fracking threatens their neighborhoods, and support bans
against the practice. When it comes to politics and baseball, the locals always root
for the home team.
(EIA) projects that the nation would have to increase its annual natural gas production by about 10 percent over the
next 25 years in order to keep up with the rising consumption level.20 Fortunately, the United States has an
abundance of domestic natural gas supplies. In fact, natural gas production is at an all-time high due to the socalled shale gas revolution.21 In their latest assessment, the Potential Gas Committee estimated that the country
has a total natural gas resource base of approximately 2,074 million cubic feet (Tcf).22 This amount included 1,836
Tcf of potential natural gas resources (including probable, possible, and speculative resources) and 238 Tcf of
than conventional ways of extracting natural gas , the estimated cost of methane
hydrate extraction is similar to unconventional sources like shale gas .25
sense. This is the foundation of modernity as a paradigm of war and the source of
many of its pathologies, crises, and evils.
Subpoint 2: Desalination
Water crises coming now-population booms and warming
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof.
@ University of Bielefeld[Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate
Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat to Human Health*." South Asian Studies
27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27, 2014).] LJ
The concept of water scarcity needs to be understood in both global and regional
contexts. Hydrologists typically assess scarcity by looking at the population-water equation (Mukheibir, 2010).
From the water stress index, when a country falls below 1000 m3 of fresh water per person per year, it is
considered a water-scarce country; and if it is below 500 m3, the country is considered to be in absolute water
2010). The Middle East and some parts of Africa could suffer water scarcity as they are likely to run out of water
climate change is the change in availability and patterns of consumption of fresh water because of changes in
temperature, precipitation, productive capacity of the soil, and in the patterns of human settlement (Raleigh &
Urdal, 2007). Increasing climate variability is expected to alter the present hydrological resources and increase
pressure on the availability of water resources in some parts of the world (Mukherbir, 2010). Furthermore,
Figure 1 shows that already water-scarce countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan are extensively using
renewable water resources for irrigation purposes, which is obviously not ecologically sustainable (Khan & Hanjra,
Water scarcity and conflicts. Does water scarcity produce or promote violence? This question is difficult to answer.
scarce regions many peasants try to supplement their falling income by cutting and
selling wood, which contributes to further deforestation (Homer-Dixon, 1994). Insuch
situations, if the state is weak, corrupt, or inefficient, water scarcity will damage other
systems as the state fails to promote the adaptive capacity of the people by giving
them alternative sources of income . Secondly, an unjust distribution of water may weaken the
relationship between the individual and the community by disrupting relationship networks and social support
water forms an integral part of mankind and hence should require prime attention . Due
to industrialization and increased population, the shortage of water in several developing
countries is observed. Seawater forms a huge sourceof potable waterprovided the
economical desalination technology is in place . The available desalination technology,
though mature, require development to make them more economical . Gas hydrates may
come at help to make the process more economical . Gas hydrates are crystalline solids made of
the water (host) and the gas molecules (guest) such as methane, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, etc., which
are held within water cavities that are composed of hydrogen-bonded water molecules .
The gas hydrate as a technology has been successful for several potential applications in
various engineering fields, such as, gas separation, carbon dioxide sequestration, gas storage and
transportation, energy source, refrigeration and not the least, in the desalination of salt water .
The current work focuses on the use of hydrate for desalination of salt water. The desalination process is
based on the phase change of liquid to solid thereby removing the solids from the
liquid phase.We present a principle behind the use of hydrate technology for desalination of salt water, the
Abstract: The
***ADV 3 is JAPAN
COOPERATION***
Tokyo's request was made to move forward a state of intent, which METI and the US
to work together to develop methane hydrate
production, the source said. The source, however, declined to disclose the response from Moniz on its request
during the bilateral meeting. During a lecture in Tokyo earlier Thursday, Moniz, however, pointed to METI's longrunning research into extracting gas from undersea methane hydrate deposits. (see story 0907 GMT) "Methane
hydrates represent research challenges but a very important resource potential," said Moniz, a physics professor at
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology before President Obama appointed him. "In my former life at MIT, when
we wrote on natural gas, we noted that methane hydrates could be the next big revolution following shale gas,
methane hydrate at a six-day offshore output test in central Japan, according to preliminary figures released by
state-owned Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation at the time. Production from the test compares with
13,000 cu m or 2,400 cu m/day of gas produced during a 5.5-day onshore output test carried out by Japan in
Canada in 2008. Methane hydrates are solid, ice-like deposits of water and natural gas, located deep underwater
where cold temperatures and extreme pressure causes the gas to condense and solidify. Although there are a
number of technical barriers to methane hydrate production, such as achieving sufficient flow rates to reduce
production costs, known resources could be large enough to meet Japan's demand for about 14 years, based on its
confirmation of 40 Tcf of methane hydrate resources in place in the southern Sea of Kumano in 2007.
gas in Alaskas North Slope. The group released its results in May of that year and the test was deemed to
be a success. Building on this test, the DOE is launching a new research initiative to conduct a long-term production
test in the Arctic, as well as research to test additional technologies that could be used to locate, characterize, and
safely extract methane hydrates on a larger scale in the coast off the Gulf of Mexico.58 Japan, for its part, will
accelerate its efforts to develop methane hydrate technology that would be necessary for commercial production so
that they can launch commercial production of methane hydrates as early as fiscal year 2018.59 Prime Minister Abe
announced that this commercialization target would be included in the governments new Basic Plan on Ocean
who also held the post in 2006- 2007. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power in a landslide election in
December 2012. The current opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) had ruled for three tumultuous years since
their own watershed election victory in 2009.
B. Alternatives to Pursuing International Litigation or Arbitration Rather than risk losing potentially valuable and
nationally significant territory in an exceedingly uncertain trial, Japan and China face a few additional alternatives to
litigating their claims in court. First, both
***SOLVENCY***
purification. Given the focus of the research, we shouldn't expect that this new
facility will handle all the unanswered questions surrounding the potential for
methane hydrate exploitation. The role of methane hydrate in the stability of the
ocean floor is not fully understood, and its extraction, by drilling or other means,
may contribute to landslides on sloping sea floor. But the research does at least hint
at the possibility of a more sophisticated approach to fossil fuel extraction and use.
Asked if he saw an inevitability to the use of methane hydrate as a source of
energy, Dunn-Rankin's response is nuanced. "For me, the use of methane hydrate
as a source of energy in the future depends more on what alternative sources of
energy are available," he said. "The advances in the extraction of natural gas from
shale seem to me also likely to dampen enthusiasm for more expensive and
potentially riskier energy source utilization. This said, our efforts to understand
hydrate dissolution and formation will always have value for the sequestration side
of the problem and will allow rational considerations of methane hydrate utilization
as well (we hope)."
Though infrastructure, guidance, and funding have been given to the Methane
more is needed and Congress must be the one
to provide the support. This section reviews the funding methods and legislation of past oil and gas
Options
research programs that have seen success and that are policy options to address the barriers to methane hydrate
goal realization. Based on the findings from the research conducted for this policy paper, recommendations are
based on the past success of research program organization and the political feasibility of implementing the needed
as the amount being appropriated is less than the value that was authorized through the Methane Hydrate
Research and Development Act.
act (e.g., transportation) receive no support since they are peripheral to the primary objectives of the act. Chapter 3
summarizes the process by which projects are selected for funding within the DOE Methane Hydrate R&D Program
and reviews projects falling into four major categories: (1) international collaborative projects, (2) industry-managed
targeted research projects, (3) USGS projects, and (4) smaller-scale projects. These projects were chosen based on
their potential to meet the goals of the DOE Methane Hydrate R&D Program and the proportion of program funds
they consume. The findings and recommendations below are based on a review of projects within these categories,
which comprise more than 90 percent of the funded work. Targeted Research Projects Targeted research projects
are designed to be specific to a research area (e.g., Gulf of Mexico, Alaska, transportation, modeling). Targeted
research projects account for over 60 percent of planned DOE Methane Hydrate R&D Program funding through
2005. Three industry-managed projects that fall into this category (reviewed in Chapter 3) were funded with
considerable cost shares from industry (Appendix G, Table G.1): BP Exploration (Alaska): Alaska North Slope Gas
Hydrate Reservoir Characterization; Maurer/Anadarko: Methane Hydrate Production from Alaskan Permafrost; and
ChevronTexaco Joint Industry Project (JIP): Characterizing Natural Gas Hydrates in the Deep Water Gulf of Mexico:
Applications for Safe Exploration. The BP Exploration (Alaska) project and the Maurer/Anadarko project are both
dedicated to energy-related research goals in the Arctic. The ChevronTexaco JIP is geared toward reducing the risk
that gas hydrate deposits pose to conventional oil and gas exploration and development in the Gulf of Mexico.
These projects provide opportunities to advance gas hydrate science and engineering techniques. However, in
some cases, they have had difficulty in meeting their respective objectives due to a project assessment and
evaluation process unsuited to recognize, evaluate, and select science-based investigations that would successfully
meet the objectives of the program. In addition, the results of these projects have not been made publicly available.
Finding Although the issues vary, the committees review of the industry-managed, targeted research projects
raises concerns about each that could limit the ability of these projects to contribute to the goals of the program.
International Collaborative Projects Gas hydrate research is international. Canada, Japan, and India, for example, are
investing significant financial resources in hydrate research. The Methane Hydrate R&D Program has made modest
investments in international projects such as the Mallik 2002 Production Research Well Program and ODP Leg 204.
oceanography at UBC and masters with a focus on science and Hal Straight gold
medal, former New Scientist magazine reporter, invited speaker at Brighton Science
Festival (Nicola, Gas-hydrate tests to begin in Alaska US team will pump waste
carbon dioxide into natural-gas well to extract methane, Nature,
http://www.nature.com/news/gas-hydrate-tests-to-begin-in-alaska-1.9758)//KC
This month, scientists will test a new way to extract methane from beneath the frozen
soil of Alaska: they will use waste carbon dioxide from conventional wells to force out the desired natural gas.
The pilot experiment will explore the possibility of mining from gas hydrates : cages of
water ice that hold molecules of methane. Such hydrates exist under the sea floor and in sandstone deep beneath
the Arctic tundra, holding potentially vast reserves of natural gas. But getting the gas out is tricky and expensive.
The test is to be run by the US Department of Energy (DOE), in conjunction with ConocoPhillips, an oil company
in the Prudhoe Bay gas fields contain a very high concentration of carbon dioxide about 12% of the gas. You
have to find something to do with it, says Ray Boswell, technology manager for methane hydrates at the DOEs
National Energy Technology Laboratory in Morgantown, West Virginia. One way to dispose of it is to bury the gas
underground. Excess carbon dioxide is already pumped down some conventional wells to encourage extraction of
the last bits of natural gas; using it to extract methane from hydrates might be a good idea too. Fuel test The test
will use the Ignik Sikumi well, which was drilled on an ice platform in Prudhoe Bay last winter. Specialized
equipment has been installed, including fibre-optic cables to measure the temperature down the well, and injection
pipes for the CO2. None of this is standard equipment; it had to be built to design, says Boswell. ConocoPhillips
helped the team to get access to the site. Thats one of the biggest hurdles getting industry to let you do an
experiment in their field, says Boswell, who has been working to arrange such tests in Alaska since 2001. Theres
a lot of inertia to overcome. Prudhoe is where they make their money, he adds. During the test, the researchers
will inject nitrogen gas into the hydrate deposit to try to push away any free water in the system, which would
otherwise freeze into hydrates on exposure to CO2 and block up the well. The next phase is to pump in isotopically
labelled CO2, and let it soak for a week before seeing what comes back up. This will help to test whether the
injected carbon is really swapping places with the carbon in the hydrates . Finally, the team will depressurize the
well and attempt to suck up all the methane and carbon dioxide. This will also give them a chance to test extraction
using depressurization sucking liquids out of the hydrate deposits to reduce pressure in the well and coax the
methane out of the water crystals. Well continue to depressurize until we run out of time or money, and see how
of CO2, says Boswell. The concept is very alluring, says Scott Dallimore, a hydrate expert with the Geological
Survey of Canada in Sidney, British Columbia. Gas fields in this area have a relatively high CO2 concentration. If
this CO2 can be re-injected while at the same time producing methane, it will be a terrific
option.Commercialization
is still a long way off. The United States has no urgent need
to mine methane hydrates, says Boswell, because it will continue to have access to much
cheaper natural-gas resources for some time to come. Japan is much closer to commercialization: the
country plans to open a short-term production well in the offshore Nankai Trough in 2013, with the aim of running a
longer production test in 2015. The country is quite eager to explore the potential of hydrates, says Boswell,
because it has few other fossil-fuel resources. Theres
a perception
this is a wild
fantasy. Thats not true. I am convinced that the research community has already
demonstrated the technical viability of gas-hydrate production, says Dallimore.
When it comes to the question of commercial viability, things become more
complex.
production technology requires heat transfer from the surrounding environment to sustain dissociation as the
temperature drops toward the hydrate equilibrium point and leaves the reservoir void of gas hydrate. Production of
gas hydrate accumulations by exchanging carbon dioxide with methane in the clathrate structure has been
To avoid excessive simulation execution times, a five-spot well pattern with a 500-m well spacing was approximated
using a two-dimensional domain having well boundaries on the vertical sides and impermeable boundaries on the
horizontal sides. Impermeable over- and under burden were included to account for heat transfer into the
methane hydrate present in the formation is limited due to bypass through the higher permeability gas zone.